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Zalakwe posted:If there is a smoking gun on this I reckon Boris is done, possibly even without one if the by-elections go badly.
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Dec 2, 2021 13:42
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Zalakwe posted:If there is a smoking gun on this I reckon Boris is done, possibly even without one if the by-elections go badly. I don't think that many people will still care about last Christmas tbh. It would have been incredibly damaging at the time, but I think people care more about what's gonna happen this Christmas than some people who were illicitly partying during the last one.
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Dec 2, 2021 13:42
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goddamnedtwisto posted:The covid was just a cover story for the times he needed hospitalisation from getting the poo poo kicked out of him by ostriches. *throwing table over* those were RHEAS
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Dec 2, 2021 13:43
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goddamnedtwisto posted:The covid was just a cover story for the times he needed hospitalisation from getting the poo poo kicked out of him by ostriches. Allegedly
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Dec 2, 2021 13:51
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goddamnedtwisto posted:The covid was just a cover story for the times he needed hospitalisation from getting the poo poo kicked out of him by ostriches. At least one of those times was because he refused to poo poo every day and he had so much poop clogging him up that he had to get it pumped out of his nose.
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Dec 2, 2021 13:51
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sinky posted:Remember two weeks ago when it emerged that he was doing special favours for the woman he was having an affair with? Something he had previously denied? The thing is voters don't care about that, they do care about Covid rules, a lot. Or at least like to in public. If he loses those two by-elections I reckon the Tories will at least move against him. All this briefing is coming from his own side, they smell blood. The Perfect Element posted:I don't think that many people will still care about last Christmas tbh. It would have been incredibly damaging at the time, but I think people care more about what's gonna happen this Christmas than some people who were illicitly partying during the last one. I think they will purely because it's Christmas again, this is the thing about crises, they come back on anniversaries. Borrovan posted:Ah! Well. Nevertheless, Realism.
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Dec 2, 2021 13:58
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What will they do when he inevitably sweeps the byelections, though?
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Dec 2, 2021 13:59
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Zalakwe posted:The thing is voters don't care about that, they do care about Covid rules, a lot. Or at least like to in public. He's the fall guy for something sooner or later, they just haven't settled on what.
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Dec 2, 2021 13:59
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Gonzo McFee posted:At least one of those times was because he refused to poo poo every day and he had so much poop clogging him up that he had to get it pumped out of his nose. He stopped the ostriches kicking the poo poo out of him and within months he was hospitalised because he was so constipated it was compressing his diaphragm and causing him hiccups. It's a tale as old as time. Tesseraction posted:*throwing table over* those were RHEAS Can't decide between a Road To Hell joke and a particularly stretched diarrhoea pun.
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Dec 2, 2021 14:00
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The centrists will use the Tory's winning by-elections in two mega safe seats as 'proof' Labour need to be even more right wing.
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Dec 2, 2021 14:08
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goddamnedtwisto posted:He stopped the ostriches kicking the poo poo out of him and within months he was hospitalised because he was so constipated it was compressing his diaphragm and causing him hiccups. It's a tale as old as time. "Die." - a rhea
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Dec 2, 2021 14:11
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I don't think "the public don't care about it" is the real reason. I think the press don't care about it and dont want looking into blatant corruption to be a thing that's treated seriously so they'll mention it in passing and then move on. If the press wants you to care you'll care. If they have to smother you in coverage you'll loving care, damnit. I mean the press spent 1 week talking about the blatant corruption within the tory party that's been going on for a decade and it caused the first major dip for the Conservatives of Starmer's leadership. Now they've moved on and things return to normal. If the press wanted to they could wipe the tory party off the face of the earth within a month.
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Dec 2, 2021 14:11
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josh04 posted:What will they do when he inevitably sweeps the byelections, though? At least one of them - North Shropshire - is going to be very close, the Lib Dems leaked some postal vote preference data showing them about 10 points behind. They have done that at by-elections they are close on recently in an effort to get their vote out. Similar data in Chesham and Amersham showed them 23 points behind. Every time they have used the tactic they have won. If you like a flutter I would get some on. Reports that Labour very active in the other seat and Bojo visiting a lot which points to it being at risk.
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Dec 2, 2021 14:12
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Dabir posted:"Die." - a rhea
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Dec 2, 2021 14:14
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Johnson wasn't even at the party and they can get away with saying all covid restrictions were followed as apparently the legislation used to make the covid rules has an exception for downing street. Which should be more of a "...you loving what?"
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Dec 2, 2021 14:15
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Gonzo McFee posted:I don't think "the public don't care about it" is the real reason. I think the press don't care about it and dont want looking into blatant corruption to be a thing that's treated seriously so they'll mention it in passing and then move on. If the press wants you to care you'll care. If they have to smother you in coverage you'll loving care, damnit. Maybe. Once something goes on a while it all just becomes noise. Particularly if there is nothing particularly new to sustain it. The Christmas party story is better in that way as it's new news, as opposed to something everybody knew already. Can anyone remember the name of the bloke with the duck house? I can't without googling. Polls may bounce back but they haven't yet and the PMs approval - often a better indicator of election results than voting preference - has completely and utterly tanked. Now all sorts of stuff that wouldn't have surfaced or stuck is starting to - there is a reason the Christmas story is only coming out now and not last year. It doesn't help of course that the opposition leader does things like consider taking his own consultancy gig, or slap down their deputy's big speech on corruption by organising a reshuffle they didn't tell her about during it.
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Dec 2, 2021 14:20
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goddamnedtwisto posted:stretched diarrhoea
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Dec 2, 2021 14:29
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Gonzo McFee posted:At least one of those times was because he refused to poo poo every day and he had so much poop clogging him up that he had to get it pumped out of his nose. w...why?!
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Dec 2, 2021 14:32
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Convex posted:He's the fall guy for something sooner or later, they just haven't settled on what. Boris is going to be the fall guy for all of it. He led the charge on Brexit, he's directly responsible for the failures of the COVID response, and he's personally involved in every bit of Tory corruption to a level deeper than anyone else. And because he was the leader and was worse than them, he can't even mount a "you too" defence when they come for him.
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Dec 2, 2021 14:33
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Zalakwe posted:At least one of them - North Shropshire - is going to be very close, the Lib Dems leaked some postal vote preference data showing them about 10 points behind. They have done that at by-elections they are close on recently in an effort to get their vote out. Similar data in Chesham and Amersham showed them 23 points behind. Every time they have used the tactic they have won. If you like a flutter I would get some on. in North Shropshire in 2019 the Lib Dems were 30k votes behind the Tories and in 3rd place, they're just doing their usual thing of making poo poo up and hoping they can take votes away from Labour
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Dec 2, 2021 14:37
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A nice poo is one of life's simplest pleasures, it's truly a sign of madness to reject it.
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Dec 2, 2021 14:38
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The Perfect Element posted:I don't think that many people will still care about last Christmas tbh. NotJustANumber99 posted:Johnson wasn't even at the party and they can get away with saying all covid restrictions were followed as apparently the legislation used to make the covid rules has an exception for downing street. Which should be more of a "...you loving what?"
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Dec 2, 2021 14:45
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Julio Cruz posted:in North Shropshire in 2019 the Lib Dems were 30k votes behind the Tories and in 3rd place, they're just doing their usual thing of making poo poo up and hoping they can take votes away from Labour Of course it's a squeeze message, it's a loving by-election. In Chesham and Amersham they were 26,000 behind... In Richmond Park they were 33,000 behind.... They won each time. Labour will be deliberately doing very little and I imagine will even have some activists out for them. Crazy poo poo happens in by-elections, particular when crap governments and individual candidates become the story. It's by no means a sure thing but there might be an upset.
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Dec 2, 2021 14:48
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I find it unhelpful that Keir decided to wait until now to bring up the No 10 party, literally 2 days after we enter into a situation where we need increased compliance from the public to wear masks etc. Just what was he trying to achieve? Wouldn't you hang on to this until a time when it could be more damaging to Boris, and more importantly, less damaging to public health?
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Dec 2, 2021 14:49
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Zalakwe posted:At least one of them - North Shropshire - is going to be very close, the Lib Dems leaked some postal vote preference data showing them about 10 points behind. They have done that at by-elections they are close on recently in an effort to get their vote out. Similar data in Chesham and Amersham showed them 23 points behind. Every time they have used the tactic they have won. If you like a flutter I would get some on. The Lib Dems entire electoral strategy is just to lie about how close they are to winning. It ranges from plain text "We are the only ones who can beat the Tories" to "We're only 5 points behind on this poll of 100 Lib Dem members we commissioned" to infographics that break just about every unspoken law of infographics.
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Dec 2, 2021 14:51
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DaWolfey posted:I find it unhelpful that Keir decided to wait until now to bring up the No 10 party, literally 2 days after we enter into a situation where we need increased compliance from the public to wear masks etc. Counterpoint - maybe it has more traction now we’re moving back to enhanced measures rather than before where people would be like “oh how naughty but it’s all fine now so I can’t bring myself to be bothered”
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Dec 2, 2021 14:52
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Red Oktober posted:Counterpoint - maybe it has more traction now we’re moving back to enhanced measures rather than before where people would be like “oh how naughty but it’s all fine now so I can’t bring myself to be bothered” Perhaps, but I think it could bring back the "Well if they won't comply then why should I?" thinking that happened last time, especially after Barnard Castle. I would argue that the public health compliance concern is currently stronger than yet another ""Tories bad" story which as has already been discussed, seem to be completely ineffectual after a week anyway. I'm not saying it's not worth attacking the Tories over at all, of course it is, but right now?
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Dec 2, 2021 15:04
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Publishing what essentially amounts to an exit poll of postal voters sounds like the sort of thing that should be illegal imo. It's illegal to talk about the actual postal votes,* or to release "actual" exit polls before the polls close, this is, at best, skeevy as gently caress. *, LAURA!
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Dec 2, 2021 15:04
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kingturnip posted:The Lib Dems entire electoral strategy is just to lie about how close they are to winning. I know this. A long time ago now I was a Lib Dem campaign manager (now reformed, haven't even voted for them in over a decade). Regardless it is good tactic for winning by-elections and if you have enough canvass data you can also predict election results very accurately. Borrovan posted:Publishing what essentially amounts to an exit poll of postal voters sounds like the sort of thing that should be illegal imo. It's not an exit poll though as it's not of actual votes, they can just give a lot of certainty given how likely postal voters are to actually vote. It's basically just a poll. Zalakwe fucked around with this message at 15:15 on Dec 2, 2021 |
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Dec 2, 2021 15:12
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Zalakwe posted:Of course it's a squeeze message, it's a loving by-election. In Chesham and Amersham they were 26,000 behind... In Richmond Park they were 33,000 behind.... They won each time. Labour will be deliberately doing very little and I imagine will even have some activists out for them. ….no? In Chesham and Amersham they were 16k behind, in Richmond Park they were 23k behind, and crucially in both of those constituencies they were the second party the Tory majority in North Shropshire in 2019 was greater than the entire LD vote e: I’m not saying the Tories will definitely win, but if they lose I can’t see any way it’s to the LDs (5600 votes in 2019) and not Labour (12500) Julio Cruz fucked around with this message at 15:33 on Dec 2, 2021 |
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Dec 2, 2021 15:30
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Zalakwe posted:I was a Lib Dem campaign manager This is like those book titles such as 'I was a KGB spy' except infinitely more boring I expect
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Dec 2, 2021 15:36
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Julio Cruz posted:….no? In Chesham and Amersham they were 16k behind, in Richmond Park they were 23k behind, and crucially in both of those constituencies they were the second party So I'm not great with me tens it seems, I should make bar charts! Being second does help them obviously and if the Tories lose it will be a huge shock. They might do though. I reckon it's going to be tight. SixFigureSandwich posted:This is like those book titles such as 'I was a KGB spy' except infinitely more boring I expect Being involved in target seat campaigns is actually really exciting, you can ignore things like what the actual policies are and just saturate the area with as much of your candidate's face as possible while declaring all other things bad. Everything is held together by sticky tape and breaking constantly. You end up sleeping on the floor of offices and come within egging distance of Nick Clegg. Despite not being a supporter anymore I can't say I would change it, at the time it felt like the right thing and Labour weren't any better. Most folk I know at my level got out when it started to get really bad, some have stuck around either because they are true ideologues or just because political parties are like football teams, hard to ditch even when they suck.
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Dec 2, 2021 15:50
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Zalakwe posted:Despite not being a supporter anymore I can't say I would change it, at the time it felt like the right thing and Labour weren't any better. Most folk I know at my level got out when it started to get really bad, some have stuck around either because they are true ideologues or just because political parties are like football teams, hard to ditch even when they suck. I know a guy in Manchester who was a Lib Dem activist for years who packed it all in recently. I think the Lib Dems abandoning Remain/Rejoin as a policy upset him and then some kind of trans or LGBT thing? They know TinTower, too, iirc 
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Dec 2, 2021 16:25
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https://twitter.com/BrendaGround/status/1466416680607830037
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Dec 2, 2021 16:45
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feedmegin posted:I know a guy in Manchester who was a Lib Dem activist for years who packed it all in recently. I think the Lib Dems abandoning Remain/Rejoin as a policy upset him and then some kind of trans or LGBT thing? Lib Dems were really strong on LGBT before other major parties so there are a lot of people from those communities involved - or there were a decade ago. I've no idea what it's like now but I can imagine trans issues being a big talking point in the party. I should stress there isn't really much you need to believe about the world to be a Lib Dem, it's ideologically really light. Some parties and political groups behave like religions while it's far more akin to a social club. Zalakwe fucked around with this message at 17:38 on Dec 2, 2021 |
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Dec 2, 2021 16:50
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Mugsbaloney posted:Anyone got a link to Uighur stuff that isn't 2 degrees of Kevin bacon from Adrian Zenz? Read this. The New Yorker may be liberal but its fact checking is second to none. It’s a really terrifying article. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/04/12/surviving-the-crackdown-in-xinjiang
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Dec 2, 2021 17:20
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therattle posted:Read this. The New Yorker may be liberal but its fact checking is second to none. It’s a really terrifying article. LOL literally quotes Zenz, good job
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Dec 2, 2021 17:38
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therattle posted:Read this. The New Yorker may be liberal but its fact checking is second to none. It’s a really terrifying article. The request was for something that wasn't a two degrees of separation from Zenz. Radio war nerd did an episode on it back in 2018, which I think is unfortunately patreon exclusive.
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Dec 2, 2021 17:39
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It's also 17000 words long.
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Dec 2, 2021 17:40
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Got to assume the Lib Dems have fallen down the TERF-hole? That whole scene is right in their wheelhouse.
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Dec 2, 2021 17:59
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