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Tuna-Fish posted:Kessler syndrome is not a threat in/for the orbits that the positioning systems use. They are simply too high, with too long periods. You could pulverize every satellite in them into 1g chunks, and it would not materially increase the risks of collision, unless you went and deliberately chose an orbit that was impacted. Space is big. Kessler syndrome is a risk where for some reason a lot of satellites want to fit into a specific, narrow orbital regime. Space is big but if all 31 GPS sats got hit, it very much would create a massive cloud of debris even at that orbital level. Maybe not a massive problem for leaving the planet, but very much a problem for everything in that orbit including other large constellations that are at that orbit.
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Dec 3, 2021 14:23
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To Latvians itt - Lembergs has caught ‘rona in prison 
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Dec 3, 2021 16:21
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CommieGIR posted:Space is big but if all 31 GPS sats got hit, it very much would create a massive cloud of debris even at that orbital level. Maybe not a massive problem for leaving the planet, but very much a problem for everything in that orbit including other large constellations that are at that orbit. There are no other constellations at that orbit. The difference in the orbital height of GPS and Glonass (the closest constellation) is a 1000km. Unlike the GEO, which is totally packed because all the satellites need to be packed into a ring, and LEO, where there's plenty of space but everything is also close together and moving very fast, MEO is really, really sparse. It's so sparse that it defies imagination. The Douglas Adams quote absolutely applies. We could not meaningfully poo poo up MEO if we tried. Blowing up all of the GPS sats would reduce the available orbital real estate at the same height by way less than 1%.
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Dec 3, 2021 17:55
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I'll just leave this here, because words fail to describe the perfection of this somehow authentic news piece: https://notesfrompoland.com/2021/12/03/polish-concert-for-troops-defending-border-to-feature-las-ketchup-and-lou-bega/
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Dec 3, 2021 23:44
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Lichtenstein posted:I'll just leave this here, because words fail to describe the perfection of this somehow authentic news piece: Great choice, a bunch of one hit wonders who were briefly popular before those soldiers were even born.
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Dec 3, 2021 23:54
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Lichtenstein posted:I'll just leave this here, because words fail to describe the perfection of this somehow authentic news piece: Hasn't Poland suffered enough
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Dec 4, 2021 03:47
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Saying the quiet part loud: https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1466823737764892682?t=_iiGny-cjTu__zrONkYFPA&s=19
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Dec 4, 2021 05:00
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Cugel the Clever posted:Saying the quiet part loud: History will remember this as a very small conflict as a seperatist amalgamation of oblats being brought back into the fold after 30 years. .@DeptofDefense "deeply concerned by evidence" Russia's planning "aggressive actions" vs Ukraine But no comment on report Russian offensive could include 175k troops, multiple fronts "We will not get into intelligence assessments" per LtCol Tony Semelroth Also no comment or plans to bolster or add troops to the mix. Which is the telling part. Strong words and no action. What the us should do is Bomb RT Hq. "We've been aware of Russia's actions for a long time and my expectation is we're going to have a long discussion," replies @POTUS, before boarding Marine One, when asked by a reporter about the troop buildup along the Ukraine border Well folka that's it. A Stern warning to Russia to keep it's territorial claims east of the dniper and all is well peace in our time etc etc. Oops 10 years later the second half has a midnight vote to join Russia! They're only going as far as Alsace Lorraine and then we will have peace I say in 2057 Major news Washington Post: "U.S. intelligence has found the Kremlin is planning a multi-front offensive as soon as early next year involving up to 175,000 troops" "The plans involve extensive movement of 100 battalion tactical groups with an estimated 175,000 personnel" WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 07:56 on Dec 4, 2021 |
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Dec 4, 2021 05:13
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Biden promised a video call with Putin where he'll again get to feel important and whine and moan about Russia not getting any respect and how NATO is enroaching on its borders etc. So everything going further will depend on what kind of concessions they agree to. Again, Putin is a gopnik coward and only attacks when he sees weakness, so world leaders standing up to him instead of appeasement poo poo is refreshing and will probably keep peace
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Dec 4, 2021 08:50
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When has an American newspaper prediction of ‘russia/China gonna invade any day now’ ever been grounded in any reality. What is unique about this time that makes people assume russia would invade Ukraine this time especially if america knows it’s going to happen.
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Dec 4, 2021 10:23
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I’m puzzled why she felt like including a screenshot instead of a video - one that doesn’t even have any related text on it. Zakharova being able to talk is not really a blockbuster.
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Dec 4, 2021 10:32
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Al-Saqr posted:When has an American newspaper prediction of ‘russia/China gonna invade any day now’ ever been grounded in any reality. What is unique about this time that makes people assume russia would invade Ukraine this time especially if america knows it’s going to happen. Who gives a poo poo about what an American newspaper printed? People are basing this on Russia amassing a huge amount of troops around Ukraine and sending out hostile messages about Ukraine getting ready to invade Donbass/Russia, NATO enroaching on its border and the US about to put nukes under Kharkov This is alarming in itself, but that's because people forgot that the same stuff happened in the spring and lead to the Geneva summit -- Putin behaving aggressively to get out of political isolation. He has increasingly less leverage on Europe and this is his best timing to get someone to talk to him and try to score some concessions. In the spring the Norway gas pipe to Poland will be complete, the LPG exporting station restored, Finnish nuclear power plant going online, likely ease of the LPG market due to China's economy cooling down, etc. Still no one likes a huge troop build up and the risk it explodes is not zero
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Dec 4, 2021 11:07
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Al-Saqr posted:When has an American newspaper prediction of ‘russia/China gonna invade any day now’ ever been grounded in any reality. What is unique about this time that makes people assume russia would invade Ukraine this time especially if america knows it’s going to happen. Probably the previous time Russia invaded Ukraine.
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Dec 4, 2021 17:00
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Tensions at city council in Chornomorsk after activists attempted to enter session of council (Near Odessa) Russia has positioned more forces near Ukraine border and is erecting supply lines such as medical units and fuel that could sustain a drawn-out conflict should Putin move to invade,
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Dec 4, 2021 17:04
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incompetent Ukrainian army is going to give nice pretext for operation https://twitter.com/liveuamap/status/1467148588400656388?s=21 https://twitter.com/liveuamap/status/1467153271693455364
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Dec 4, 2021 17:30
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Vasukhani posted:incompetent Ukrainian army is going to give nice pretext for operation Welp time to eradicate Ukrainian statehood for their attempted invasion -- Us talking heads including the president keeps stating they will make it hard for Russia if they decide to invade ukraine. Sounds like they're basically just going to sanction them and do nothing else I mean why would you say you're going to make it hard if you were going to take military action against it or do anything about it? Europe isn't going to do a loving thing NATO won't do a loving thing. And the US won't do a loving thing. Either way this ends, whether Russia "puts down the seperatist Ukraine" or doesn't, Putins stated goal is to prove that NATO is weak and ineffective as breaking it would allow a vastly stronger sphere of influence. WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 17:58 on Dec 4, 2021 |
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Dec 4, 2021 17:48
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Welp time to eradicate Ukrainian statehood for their attempted invasion revoking SWIFT membership, which would have been effective in 2014, but now Russia has made its own version of SWIFT, which has EU gas partners as members.
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Dec 4, 2021 18:08
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I’m puzzled why she felt like including a screenshot instead of a video - one that doesn’t even have any related text on it. Zakharova being able to talk is not really a blockbuster. Without looking it up, the usual narrative is that Ukraine is under America's 'remote control', and therefore Zelenskyi is not an independent politician with whom Russia could talk. This is not at all new.
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Dec 4, 2021 18:12
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Vasukhani posted:revoking SWIFT membership, which would have been effective in 2014, but now Russia has made its own version of SWIFT, which has EU gas partners as members. Let's see: we can't control shell games so Russia doesn't care about sanctions for the most part We can't close the black sea because that would play into Russia's hand as turkey would go "nah" and thus not be a greenlight for invoking article 5 if Russia were to run the blockade. Europe won't side with us for sanctions probably due to the gas constraints. So our mutual defense pact is defeated out of no action. Ukraine is literally hosed. I don't see a way for this to end when putins decision day comes even without a full fledged Invasion Ukraine is probably very loving aware they are alone and stand to gain nothing by continuing to be the middle ground. In private the US tells Ukraine we stand by you. In public the US says strong words are in for Russia if they hit their little brother again.
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Dec 4, 2021 18:20
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Paladinus posted:Without looking it up, the usual narrative is that Ukraine is under America's 'remote control', and therefore Zelenskyi is not an independent politician with whom Russia could talk. This is not at all new. I meant the reporter talking about it, why post an unrelated screenshot instead of a video of Zakharova saying the quiet part out loud? Not that I doubt it, there has been plenty of "periphery" takes over the years from the Russian establishment.
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Dec 4, 2021 18:22
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I just received word that Ukrainian forces have made an attack on a Russian radio station near the border! They transmitted a short anti-Russian message in Ukrainian. Several attackers in uniform were left behind with posthumous gunshot wounds. Valiant Russian president, Vladimir Putin, announced on state TV: quote:For months we have been suffering under the torture of a problem which the Budapest Memorandum created - a problem which has deteriorated until it becomes intolerable for us. Kiev was and is a Russian city. The Dnieper was and is Russian. Both these territories owe their cultural development exclusively to the Russian people. Kiev was separated from us, the steppe was annexed by Ukraine. As in other Russian territories of the west, all Russian minorities living there have been ill-treated in the most distressing manner...
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Dec 4, 2021 18:33
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Cugel the Clever posted:I just received word that Ukrainian forces have made an attack on a Russian radio station near the border! They transmitted a short anti-Russian message in Ukrainian. Several attackers in uniform were left behind with posthumous gunshot wounds. was the radio station Russia today Ukrainian border guards say that neither violation of border by Ukrainian helicopter was recorded, nor message about violation received from Belarusian side as it claimed Putin plans to have a phone convo with Biden in the next few days. Hopefully Biden brain doesn't explode during the Convo and he accidentally creates peace in our time. Well folka that's the game. The Iranians were right, the snake is weakened. Welcome to the multi polar world of tomorrow No shortage of sanction options if Russia invades Ukraine https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-business-ukraine-united-states-vladimir-putin-e8de961cd5150a959d110e9191725db7 . Instead, payback could be all about the money. Secretary of State Antony Blinken this week promised financial pain — “high impact economic measures that we’ve refrained from taking in the past.” President Joe Biden on Friday said the U.S. had developed the “most comprehensive and meaningful set of initiatives to make it very, very difficult for Mr. Putin.” -- the US seems to think sanctions are worth more than sovereign nations to a strongman like Putin. I mean this is all we have left this is our nuclear bomb, cutting grain shipments to Russia is our response to them taking Ukraine. WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 08:14 on Dec 5, 2021 |
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Dec 4, 2021 19:46
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If Putin really attacks Ukraine, what are his most likely goals? I assume a complete occupation is out of the question, so just occupation of a couple of cities like Mariupol? Forcing an unequal treaty on Ukraine that keeps western troops out? A demilitarized zone? Forcing Ukraine to give up territorial claims on Crimea? Accepting Russian military bases near Kiev?
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Dec 5, 2021 15:17
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If it really happens it seems unlikely that the Ukrainian army doesn't collapse immediately given the monstrous disparity in airpower especially, so it depends on how controllable he thinks the population will be? Annexing bits that he thinks will not too actively resent this would make the rest of the country less sympathetic towards Russia. Annexations of pro-Russian bits and demilitarizing and neutralizing the rest? Don't think he wants to reinvade every time a pro-Western pol comes into power tho so I kinda wonder if that's achievable in practical terms. Or maybe Ukrainians except for some weirdos just get on board with being Russians now and he grabs the whole thing.
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Dec 5, 2021 16:27
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GABA ghoul posted:If Putin really attacks Ukraine, what are his most likely goals? I assume a complete occupation is out of the question, so just occupation of a couple of cities like Mariupol? Forcing an unequal treaty on Ukraine that keeps western troops out? A demilitarized zone? Forcing Ukraine to give up territorial claims on Crimea? Accepting Russian military bases near Kiev? I think there's a line from Moldova to Lithuania that he's been looking at real hard for a really long time.
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Dec 5, 2021 16:30
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All the Western efforts to support Ukraine aren't intended to achieve the unfeasible goal of enabling Ukraine to be militarily victorious over Russia, but to leave it too spiky to swallow without inflicting more pain than Putin is willing to bear in pursuit of his goals. That means both making the initial invasion more costly and empowering Ukrainians to maintain resistance operations post-invasion. With the support given so far, full occupation is almost certainly off the table due to Russia's situation at home. Occupation of strategic border regions is more viable, combined with toppling the government and leaving it incapable of standing back up in a form not of Russia's choosing, but it would require a campaign willing to indulge in mass atrocities that might foster too much anti-Russian unity in the West, allowing for rolling back a lot of the levers Putin has so diligently created to manipulate the West on the margins. I really don't see an invasion scenario that leaves Russia better off a decade down the road, so it seems likely he's just blustering with the intent of destabilizing Ukraine. Unless power has finally gone to his head and he's not operating in the same reality we are. Say what you will about militarist propaganda, but this video hits right in the feels knowing that they're defending their home against authoritarian invasion. https://twitter.com/DougKlain/status/1466848881178783746?t=VSE7zp57yIayms73xxEXEA&s=19
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Dec 5, 2021 16:52
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Cugel the Clever posted:
This ad is circa 2015 btw GABA ghoul posted:If Putin really attacks Ukraine, what are his most likely goals? I assume a complete occupation is out of the question, so just occupation of a couple of cities like Mariupol? Forcing an unequal treaty on Ukraine that keeps western troops out? A demilitarized zone? Forcing Ukraine to give up territorial claims on Crimea? Accepting Russian military bases near Kiev? Enforcement of "minsk III" plus a federalized Ukraine. Basically keeps it out of NATO forever and ensures that the pro-Yanukovych areas can veto right bank Ukraine. https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1467466576429527042
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Dec 5, 2021 16:59
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GABA ghoul posted:If Putin really attacks Ukraine, what are his most likely goals? I assume a complete occupation is out of the question, so just occupation of a couple of cities like Mariupol? Forcing an unequal treaty on Ukraine that keeps western troops out? A demilitarized zone? Forcing Ukraine to give up territorial claims on Crimea? Accepting Russian military bases near Kiev? A complete occupation is out of the question most likely the first goal will be everything east of the dniper + Odessa. This would landlock the remaining Ukraine. Preferably while also runway cratering airports and cracking rail lines. In effect crippling Ukraine ability to trade with it's neighbors that aren't Russia. Mariupol is the industrial powerhouse of Ukraine so that would be a major boon for "Novo Russia". Holding half of kyiv legitimizes the occupation and eventually eastern Ukraine is seen as more legitimate than western. Odessa is a big kn as it's the last major port Ukraine owns on the west side of the dniper. Transnistria may be given a chunk of Odessa oblast as a favor courter and a sea lane for Russia to continue to fuel Moldovan conflict After a dozen years of this, Russia takes the other half of Ukraine easily and probably without a shot fired.
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Dec 5, 2021 17:33
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Cugel the Clever posted:I really don't see an invasion scenario that leaves Russia better off a decade down the road, so it seems likely he's just blustering with the intent of destabilizing Ukraine. Unless power has finally gone to his head and he's not operating in the same reality we are. That describes the lasts invasion too though. After 2014 Russia has become politically and economically isolated. It has been experiencing massive economic troubles as a result. Crimea and Donbas are huge financial burdens. Millions of people have been displaced, tens of thousands are dead. Overall, the invasion was a huge disaster for the Russian people, but he still went ahead with it. He is not exactly a rational actor.
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Dec 5, 2021 18:00
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The Kremlin was under the irredentist delusion that russian speaking areas yearn to join Russia and break free from the homonazi ukrs and many areas showed no resistance. Mariupol and Odessa proved that wrong, and now people will desperately fight because if they don't, their home areas will become LDNR The situation is completely different to 2014, an invasion now would be completely unhinged
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Dec 5, 2021 18:11
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Somaen posted:
Scenario dovetails with the poster predicting it.
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Dec 5, 2021 18:20
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Somaen posted:
https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1467413513354235907?s=20
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Dec 5, 2021 18:26
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Crimean invasion seemed so crazy at the time, a guy here promised to eat his dick if it happened. As far as I'm aware they didn't follow through.
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Dec 5, 2021 18:27
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Completely unhinged doesn't mean it's not possible! Crimea fell without resistance though, here there is no scenario without an army-to-army confrontation now
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Dec 5, 2021 18:34
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Somaen posted:Completely unhinged doesn't mean it's not possible! Crimea fell without resistance though, here there is no scenario without an army-to-army confrontation now That's not entirely true. The West could still hand Russia half of Ukraine to prevent war in Europe. Ukrainian military know that they don't stand a chance without big material support and the west knows it aswell. WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 19:48 on Dec 5, 2021 |
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Dec 5, 2021 19:45
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Putin's 69 and while he appears to be in good health, if he's got some grand Imperialist vision (destroying NATO, Restoring Russian Power/Prestige, etc...) he may be feeling some pressure to accomplish it before he croaks or gets too old to fend off usurpers/coups.
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Dec 5, 2021 19:52
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GABA ghoul posted:If Putin really attacks Ukraine, what are his most likely goals? I assume a complete occupation is out of the question, so just occupation of a couple of cities like Mariupol? Forcing an unequal treaty on Ukraine that keeps western troops out? A demilitarized zone? Forcing Ukraine to give up territorial claims on Crimea? Accepting Russian military bases near Kiev? Conquering the entire world and then colonising the Moon. Paladinus fucked around with this message at 20:03 on Dec 5, 2021 |
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Dec 5, 2021 19:56
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If I know one thing about strongman authoritarian regimes, it's that the guy at the top always grooms and designates a competent successor that can maintain the delicate balance of power within the regime. They also make sure to transfer the reins before they become physically and mentally incapable of maintaining the integrity of the regime. Looking forward to a smooth and bloodless handover of power!
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Dec 5, 2021 19:58
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https://twitter.com/KenRoth/status/1467215973837070340 Does anyone here have some more insight into the Memorial situation? Last I heard, the court hearing has been rescheduled for December 14th.
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Dec 5, 2021 20:30
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Numlock posted:Putin's 69 and while he appears to be in good health, if he's got some grand Imperialist vision (destroying NATO, Restoring Russian Power/Prestige, etc...) he may be feeling some pressure to accomplish it before he croaks or gets too old to fend off usurpers/coups. Hopefully he croaks on his own, and soon. Or maybe somebody will poison him like he's poisoned so many others.
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Dec 5, 2021 22:00
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