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Which horse film is your favorite? This poll is closed. |
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|---|---|---|---|
| Black Beauty |
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2 | 1.06% |
| A Talking Pony!?! |
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4 | 2.13% |
| Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor |
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117 | 62.23% |
| War Horse |
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11 | 5.85% |
| Mr. Hands |
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54 | 28.72% |
| Total: | 188 votes | ||
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Professor Beetus posted:E: Morbus is absolutely wrong though, that tweet is talking about someone who's had an infection and 2 shots versus 2 shots plus booster. Maybe Morbus can work on their reading comprehension. I don't think so? The paper says they took pfizer vaccine trial participants (which I'm taking to mean 2 shots but not sure), some of who had no prior infection with SARS-CoV2 and some who had prior infection. It looks like there is a ~40x reduction in titers across the board, but the infection+vax'd participants had much higher titers to begin with and therefore still had decent (but tbh not great) neutralization of omicron. The vax'd only sera did pretty terribly. Again, trying to correlate NT50 to VE is complicated but a 40x drop in titers is not good, and basically acts like an anti-booster. Edit: also, probably need to be a little cautious about equating "convalescent then vaxed N times " with 'N+1 vaxed". Their still isn't much clarity about that, and there's some reason to think that mRNA vaxing on top of a prior infection results is qualitatively distinct from multiple vaccines (due to antibody maturation, different breadth of antigen, whatever). Morbus fucked around with this message at 23:33 on Dec 7, 2021 |
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Dec 7, 2021 23:31
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It takes about two weeks for a full blown infection to develop and run it's course, we'll know a lot more here starting Dec 14-17, Fauci suspiciously announced they would have live virus studies ready to report Dec 17, just an hour before this lab report was leaked, as if he got an early prerelease
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Dec 7, 2021 23:33
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FWIW the author of the original tweet provided their own follow up analysis of the results: https://twitter.com/DevanSinha/status/1468340685015330816?s=20 https://twitter.com/DevanSinha/status/1468343501419159564?s=20 These basically align with what I think a lot of people suspected--some loss in efficacy against symptomatic covid, boosters are still effective but should be considered necessary for complete protection vs 2x series, substantial protection expected against serious illness/death. It's not great news if you hoped omicron would be a big nothing, but good news relative to the hypothesis of "near total loss of vaccine efficacy"
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Dec 7, 2021 23:37
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Morbus posted:I don't think so? The paper says they took pfizer vaccine trial participants (which I'm taking to mean 2 shots but not sure), some of who had no prior infection with SARS-CoV2 and some who had prior infection. It looks like there is a ~40x reduction in titers across the board, but the infection+vax'd participants had much higher titers to begin with and therefore still had decent (but tbh not great) neutralization of omicron. The vax'd only sera did pretty terribly. Yeah, I'm sorry, I misread and that's on me. Mea culpa. 
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Dec 7, 2021 23:40
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monoclonal treatments might be really hosed, though Immunology question/speculation: if incubation and symptom onset is longer in Omicron than the shortened window in Delta, is that a "good" thing for cell-mediated response? As in, if Omicron is more similar to Beta than it is to Delta and has a longer incubation with lower viral loads, does that allow more time for T and B cells to mount a response? Intuitively that makes sense but I've been told "immunology is where intuition goes to die."
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Dec 7, 2021 23:41
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Professor Beetus posted:Yeah, I'm sorry, I misread and that's on me. Mea culpa. np and ty for discussing in good faith. Something else to consider about these figures is 1.) There's a pretty big range in antibody titers as a result of vaccines or boosters (and an even bigger range for actual infections). 40x reduction means a lot of the edge cases who, for whatever reason, only had marginal protection to begin with are now in bad shape. Like that one poor mfer green dot who started in the same place as the orange ones then just fell straight into the toilet with omicron 2.) Still not that many people boosted. At this point it's fair odds that omicron will be dominant before boosters kick in for people who just now are considering them. 3.) I am both encouraged turbotiters holding up at least OK vs. omicron, and worried about the long-term result of this continued race between spike and antibodies. There was that paper where they evolved spike not to avoid antibodies but just to bind to ACE2 1-2 orders of magnitude better than the best antibodies, and I'm afraid that's where we are headed if we can't get Rt under loving control.
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Dec 7, 2021 23:53
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Fritz the Horse posted:monoclonal treatments might be really hosed, though Who knows. I'm inclined to think any benefit of a slower ramp up might be offset by poorer clearance on the other side, but I just don't think we can make good predictions about it. Plus...omicron's immune escape seems mostly explainable by mutations on RBD whereas the super fitness of delta seems to arise elsewhere. I'm not gonna get my hopes up that the aggressive replication we see in delta isn't just gonna be selected for again.
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Dec 8, 2021 00:00
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long as boosters work I and my family should be fine, so that's nice
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Dec 8, 2021 00:04
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Morbus posted:Who knows. I'm inclined to think any benefit of a slower ramp up might be offset by poorer clearance on the other side, but I just don't think we can make good predictions about it. Plus...omicron's immune escape seems mostly explainable by mutations on RBD whereas the super fitness of delta seems to arise elsewhere. I'm not gonna get my hopes up that the aggressive replication we see in delta isn't just gonna be selected for again. oh I was just wondering about the mechanics of it, I'm not wishful thinking that might be how Omicron turns out. My understanding is that RBD is very important for virulence, I'm reconsidering holiday travel plans until we have more epidemiological data on Omicron. I was going to drive and see some relatives (all vaxxed, pretty responsible) but mmmm we'll see. GreyjoyBastard posted:long as boosters work I and my family should be fine, so that's nice You could always just go back under house arrest and not worry about the pandemic
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Dec 8, 2021 00:07
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Thank you Google news push from Sky News: BREAKING: The Pfizer vaccine may be up to 40 times less effective against omicron than the original strain
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Dec 8, 2021 00:32
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Lmao
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Dec 8, 2021 00:34
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https://twitter.com/BenjMurrell/status/1468341478363746310 Today is a good day if your fetish is reading antibody neutralisation studies.
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Dec 8, 2021 00:36
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Charles 2 of Spain posted:https://twitter.com/BenjMurrell/status/1468341478363746310
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Dec 8, 2021 00:40
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Fritz the Horse posted:antibodies are not the only part of your vaccine-induced immunity, there is also cell-mediated immunity about which we know little right now re: Omicron Exactly. The news in general continue to be good: https://twitter.com/MonicaGandhi9/status/1468350089143877633
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Dec 8, 2021 00:54
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Based on today's results I think we can assume that double vaccination without prior infection is no longer an effective infection control measure and areas that aren't already well into their booster rollout are going to have to use significantly stronger NPIs against Omicron.
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Dec 8, 2021 01:07
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The previous page was a great lesson in why 'basing my argument on my interpretation on a three sentence (and graph) tweet that sums up a complicated scientific study' is completely pointless, we had at least two wildly wrong conclusions posted
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Dec 8, 2021 01:10
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Thorn Wishes Talon posted:Exactly. The news in general continue to be good:
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Dec 8, 2021 01:13
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Fritz the Horse posted:I Am Not An Immunologist AJL has pointed out a number of times, and Morbus here said so (I think!), that relying on T and B cells is not ideal. AJL often mentions that the percentage of people susceptible to severe Covid also spool up auto-antibodies that intercept interferons, which from my layman understanding are warning buoys an infected cell sends out. So for those susceptible to severe Covid, particularly the elderly and immune-compromised, antibodies are very important.
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Dec 8, 2021 01:24
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Alctel posted:The previous page was a great lesson in why 'basing my argument on my interpretation on a three sentence (and graph) tweet that sums up a complicated scientific study' is completely pointless, we had at least two wildly wrong conclusions posted If only there could be some sort of standard of conduct, enforced with punishments for good faith infractions and removal for abuse, that could apply to our discussion so that there wasn't extended conflict over wildly wrong conclusions.
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Dec 8, 2021 02:15
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Could you either make that poster an IK or tell them to stop backseat modding please
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Dec 8, 2021 02:17
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Unless it's extremely obvious, I'm not going to probe someone for "bad faith posting" when all they've done is disagree with you or post a take you don't like. It's okay for people to have different opinions and just because they believe differently than you doesn't mean they're posting in bad faith. Apologies to the people who were harmed by having to read a two page discussion in the debate and discussion forums.
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Dec 8, 2021 02:31
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Where we started:Professor Beetus posted:Honestly the biggest thanks are for the thread regulars who showed up and contributed great content to a crowdsourced OP. We're lucky to have so many knowledgeable folks here willing to help us laypeople make sense of this poo poo and stay on top of things. Thanks to everyone in this thread for participating and keeping this thread useful. I'm going to compile the list of contributers and their selected cert request. If you have not made a cert request via post or PM and you were quoted in the OP, I will just ask for an av/title change for you. Where we went: Professor Beetus posted:You are currently engaged in wild speculation and none of what you are saying in this post is supported by the small amount of data we have on omicron. You are listening to people talking about literal worst case scenarios and extrapolating that they're all going to come true simultaneously. It's not "minimizing Covid" to say we don't currently have enough data to say for sure what's going to happen with omicron, because it's the only 100% factual thing you can currently say about it. Where we are now: Professor Beetus posted:Unless it's extremely obvious, I'm not going to probe someone for "bad faith posting" when all they've done is disagree with you or post a take you don't like. It's okay for people to have different opinions and just because they believe differently than you doesn't mean they're posting in bad faith. Apologies to the people who were harmed by having to read a two page discussion in the debate and discussion forums. All you've done is ensure that anything less than "extremely obvious" bad faith gets to dominate the thread.
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Dec 8, 2021 02:39
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That's not true. Tedious whining about moderation is pretty dominant right now!
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Dec 8, 2021 02:46
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I guess if you assume that everyone who disagrees with you or has a take you don't like is bad faith posting, there sure are a lot of bad faith posters around here!
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Dec 8, 2021 02:56
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Professor Beetus posted:I guess if you assume that everyone who disagrees with you or has a take you don't like is bad faith posting, there sure are a lot of bad faith posters around here! It's not ever been based on factual disagreements, it's on the content and structure of the actual posts. I, like you, am capable of reading rapsheets and post histories and remembering who was banned from the previous version of the thread. I'm able to remember when there were rules about sourcing, and meeting effort with effort, and that the purpose of D&D is educational. I'm able to remember subject matter experts saying they were being driven out of the thread. I'm able to remember you repeatedly talking about the bad state of the thread...and then doing nothing about it.
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Dec 8, 2021 03:10
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Gio posted:I am also Not An Immunologist so someone can correct me here. I mean the reason we got boosters in the first place was because, even for "just" delta, the gradual waning of antibody levels eventually (especially after 4-6+ months) resulted in infection outcomes that were measurably worse than they were when antibody levels were high. This gradual waning, at the 6 month point, coincides with roughly an order of magnitude (~10x) reduction in antibody titers. Again, there's a lot of variation, but that's roughly the magnitude of the effect. People can (and did!) debate how significant that is, how much we should worry about varying degrees of symptomatic disease vs. severe disease & death, how much we should worry about long term sequalae of symptomatic illness & breakthroughs, the extent to which any of this affects transmission, the importance and magnitude of the impact on individuals who (for whatever reason) were only marginally protected by vaccines to begin with, the extent to which we should shift thinking away from "N and done" towards needing recurring protection against an endemic threat, etc. etc. The emerging consensus from those kinds of discussions (pre-omicron), was that boosting after several months was in the interests of public health. And again, this was based pretty much entirely on the negative effects of decreasing antibody levels, and the benefits of bringing those levels back up. T-cell mediated immunity, B cell memory, all of this applies just as well to someone who got 2 shots 6 months ago. And yet, the consensus was that despite all that, boosting antibody levels that have waned months after a 2nd shot is worthwhile, and this is before omicron. Given how recent and thorough the discussion re: antibody levels and boosters was, I think that's the best (or at least a very reasonable) context to think about any reduction in antibody effectiveness with omicron. If omicron reduces anitbody effectiveness by ~an order of magnitude, then it would put a "2 shot + recent booster" person vs. omicron roughly in the same spot as "2nd shot 6 months ago" person vs. delta. It would put a "2 shot 6 months ago" person....someplace we don't want them to be. Maybe in line with a 1x shot only person. This is, of course speculative in the sense that we don't and won't have empirical data about this for some time--but no poo poo. The whole point of having these discussions is to try--as best as possible--to make proactive risk assessments & decisions, since decisions made after people to get sick are much less useful. There's a difference between someone just pulling poo poo out of their rear end and someone making reasonable assessments based on the best available information.
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Dec 8, 2021 03:15
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Here's a fun thought I've just had: We've already been waiting increasingly impatiently for going on a year sober the EUA for the youngest among us to be offered vaccination. We're still at "first half of 2022" as the only real information out there. If we're now looking at a three shot course minimum, we're, what, potentially another full year out from under 5's getting vaccination protection from omicron? Real fun times.
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Dec 8, 2021 03:24
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Discendo Vox posted:It's not ever been based on factual disagreements, it's on the content and structure of the actual posts. I, like you, am capable of reading rapsheets and post histories and remembering who was banned from the previous version of the thread. I'm able to remember when there were rules about sourcing, and meeting effort with effort, and that the purpose of D&D is educational. I'm able to remember subject matter experts saying they were being driven out of the thread. I'm able to remember you repeatedly talking about the bad state of the thread...and then doing nothing about it. As someone who has been prob'd a few times and threatened with banishment...the moderation is fine. Nothing anyone is posting is unacceptable for a debate thread unless, as you seem to think anyone, who interprets the very thin data in a different way to you is up to something nefarious. I personally enjoy the fact that people are actually debating the data and it's not just a hive mind cspam thread with everyone posting "lmao" and talking about cheese lung followed by 10 pages on what straps to get on your respirator.
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Dec 8, 2021 03:39
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brugroffil posted:Here's a fun thought I've just had: Maybe their boosters will be a combo shot? re: posting studies, in vitro studies are almost never expected to provide results that map 1:1 to what we see in the wild, especially not in a discipline as complex as immunology. Doubly so for computer models. Take them with a grain of salt. Read pre-print studies all you want, but at the end of the day, there's no magic 8-ball for seeing how a new variant is going to pan out.
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Dec 8, 2021 03:42
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Illuminti posted:As someone who has been prob'd a few times and threatened with banishment...the moderation is fine. Nothing anyone is posting is unacceptable for a debate thread unless, as you seem to think anyone, who interprets the very thin data in a different way to you is up to something nefarious. EVERY MORNING I WAKE UP AND OPEN PALM SLAM TWEETS INTO THE THREAD. IT'S LEONARDI AND FEIGL-DING AND I START DOING THE MOVES ALONGSIDE WITH THE MAIN CHARACTER, CHISE. I DO EVERY MOVE AND I DO EVERY MOVE HARD. MAKIN WHOOSHING SOUNDS WHEN I SLAM DOWN HOW COVID IS AIRBORNE DIABETES AND PARKINSONS OR EVEN WHEN I MESS UP TECHNIQUE. NOT MANY VIRUSES CAN SAY THEY TOTALLY ESCAPE VACCINES. I CAN. I SAY IT AND I SAY IT OUTLOUD EVERYDAY TO PEOPLE ON THE SOMETHING AWFUL FORUMS AND THEY ALL AGREE WITH ME. AND IVE LEARNED ALL THE LINES AND IVE LEARNED TO NEVER LEAVE MY APARTMENT OR HAVE CONTACT WITH ANOTHER HUMAN BEING BECAUSE COVID ROTS YOUR BRAINSTEM. 2 HOURS INCLUDING WIND DOWN EVERY MORNING. THEN I LIFT
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Dec 8, 2021 03:57
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Discendo Vox posted:It's not ever been based on factual disagreements, it's on the content and structure of the actual posts. I, like you, am capable of reading rapsheets and post histories and remembering who was banned from the previous version of the thread. I'm able to remember when there were rules about sourcing, and meeting effort with effort, and that the purpose of D&D is educational. I'm able to remember subject matter experts saying they were being driven out of the thread. I'm able to remember you repeatedly talking about the bad state of the thread...and then doing nothing about it. Have you ever considered that maybe you'd just be a lot happier reading the well-curated Washington Post
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Dec 8, 2021 04:03
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Fritz the Horse posted:then why the gently caress did you post it? as a gotcha? are you sealioning? I should preemptively provided a citation for that one, but come on, man. It’s not an “underlying error” to say “the population of the United States is three hundred and thirty million” because you failed to cite “U.S. Census 2020”. From each vaccine maker’s presentation to ACIP:     Alctel posted:The previous page was a great lesson in why 'basing my argument on my interpretation on a three sentence (and graph) tweet that sums up a complicated scientific study' is completely pointless, we had at least two wildly wrong conclusions posted Could you explain that? The way I see it, computer modelling suggesting a twenty‐five fold to sixtyfold drop (geometric mean: thirty‐five) in NT50 looks pretty good when an in vitro result of forty‐one drops.
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Dec 8, 2021 04:03
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Fritz the Horse posted:EVERY MORNING I WAKE UP AND OPEN PALM SLAM TWEETS INTO THE THREAD. IT'S LEONARDI AND FEIGL-DING AND I START DOING THE MOVES ALONGSIDE WITH THE MAIN CHARACTER, CHISE. I DO EVERY MOVE AND I DO EVERY MOVE HARD. MAKIN WHOOSHING SOUNDS WHEN I SLAM DOWN HOW COVID IS AIRBORNE DIABETES AND PARKINSONS OR EVEN WHEN I MESS UP TECHNIQUE. NOT MANY VIRUSES CAN SAY THEY TOTALLY ESCAPE VACCINES. I CAN. I SAY IT AND I SAY IT OUTLOUD EVERYDAY TO PEOPLE ON THE SOMETHING AWFUL FORUMS AND THEY ALL AGREE WITH ME. AND IVE LEARNED ALL THE LINES AND IVE LEARNED TO NEVER LEAVE MY APARTMENT OR HAVE CONTACT WITH ANOTHER HUMAN BEING BECAUSE COVID ROTS YOUR BRAINSTEM. 2 HOURS INCLUDING WIND DOWN EVERY MORNING. THEN I LIFT I'm not a doctor of veterinarian medicine, buuuuuut I don't think horses have palms. Consider me suspicious. I'm on to you 
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Dec 8, 2021 04:11
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never mind
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Dec 8, 2021 04:35
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This seems not good? https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1468400952218730498?s=20 And this implies “mild” is also maybe not great? https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1468411107593400322?s=20
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Dec 8, 2021 05:28
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Please keep in mind there are several layers or steps in scientific experimentation that might be applicable to COVID stuff: gedanken hypothesis or theoretical ---> in silico computer simulations and models ---> in vitro test tube laboratory experiments ---> in vivo live organism "lab rat / guinea pig" experiments where a live model organism is experimented on ---> in populo actual population-level epidemiological data (these are the terms and the general flow I'm familiar with, some "steps" may be skipped, absent, or irrelevant depending on what specific thing you're talking about) When you're discussing or engaging with data on COVID-19, it's important to keep in mind which "level" of data/evidence/experimentation you're engaging with. Generally speaking, anything involving biology gets stupidly complex. A few things are well-suited to computer simulation, antibody binding seems to be one of them. Most of the posting in the last ~24 hours has been discussion of in silico computer model data of antibody binding from the Bloom lab, followed later in the day by in vitro neutralizing antibody assays from a couple of different labs. Apparently antibody binding is something where computer simulations work well, and these simluations have been validated to an extent by laboratory assays. These data suggest that protection against infection from previous vaccination or infection is greatly reduced vs. Omicron. And that monoclonal antibody treatments might be hosed. We still don't have good population-level epidemiological data about the transmissibility, disease severity, or vaccine effectiveness vs. Omicron. We won't for a couple weeks. Thanks for coming to my TED talk.
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Dec 8, 2021 05:35
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Americans Aren't Getting Enough Booster Shots, and It's Causing a Serious Problem https://www.newsweek.com/lack-booster-uptake-risk-us-surpasses-100000-cases-omicron-1656789 The "get everyone boosted and we'll be OK" advice is unrealistic in the US. Only 53% of adults say they have had a booster shot or intend to get one later. Only 25% of adults have actually had one. Compliance was already poor and is dropping with each shot. If a 4th shot is needed to preserve immunity in the future we should expect adoption to be even lower. The current death rate will keep grinding the nation and supply chain into mulch if sustained. Endemic education crisis, endemic healthcare crisis, endemic shootings and drug overdoses, endemic homelessness. I did feel pretty good about my odds with my booster shot previously. The nation can't function normally like this though even if I don't get seriously ill personally. strange feelings re Daisy fucked around with this message at 06:21 on Dec 8, 2021 |
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Dec 8, 2021 06:05
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strange feelings re Daisy posted:Endemic education crisis, endemic healthcare crisis, endemic shootings and drug overdoses, endemic homelessness. I did feel pretty good about my odds with my booster shot previously. The nation can't function normally like this though even if I don't get seriously ill personally. I dunno, all that stuff sounds like the US functioning pretty normally to me.
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Dec 8, 2021 06:55
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Fritz the Horse posted:Please keep in mind there are several layers or steps in scientific experimentation that might be applicable to COVID stuff: I think you're misrepresenting the antibody binding data a bit. The visualization tool from Bloom's lab ("calculator) isn't based on in silico simulations. They used modified yeast to express CoV2 spike (with whatever mutations they wanted), put those proteins against actual antibodies in vitro, and measured their effectiveness. The calculator tool is just a convenient way to aggregate and visualize all that data. Similarly Bieniasz's polymutant spike and other work was mostly based on a chimeric VSV/SARS-CoV2 pseudo virus, that let them express CoV2 spike with whatever mutations, put them up against antibodies, but also do evolutionary studies since the virus was replication competent. Really the majority of information we have on antibody binding and spike mutations comes from work like this, not in silico studies. And these studies aren't new, either, most of the heavy hitter antibody escape mutations have been known for almost a year now, and predictions based on this kind of work have been broadly successful at estimating the effectiveness of antibodies against other VOCs. As far as population-level epidemiological data, it's gonna be longer than a couple weeks before we have really solid data on things like virulence or vaccine effectiveness. As far as transmissibility goes, the outbreak in Gauteng has been going on long enough for us to be reasonably confident that omicron is enjoying a large (2-4x) reproductive advantage over delta. You can use that information to at least set boundaries on likely values of R0 and immune escape, none of which look good. Denmark and the UK are the places to watch (for now) to see if the virus behaves much differently in a highly vaccinated population (as opposed to South Africa, where the great majority of the population has had prior exposure to SARS-CoV2 but not vaccines). As I posted earlier, we have good data on how reduced neutralization by antibodies affects outcomes in vaccinated populations, and that is the most reasonable starting point for assumptions we make about how omicron may behave in those populations. Realistically, the majority of people in western countries, even "highly vaccinated" ones, haven't been boosted, and will be riding out this winter with whatever antibodies they've got from shot #2 however many months ago. Anywhere that was going into a rough winter from delta, certainly isn't going to have an easier time due to omicron. This really shouldn't be a controversial statement, and is (part of) why the "mild mutant" or other minimizing/optimistic narratives are really irresponsible, imo.
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Dec 8, 2021 07:05
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Discendo Vox posted:If only there could be some sort of standard of conduct, enforced with punishments for good faith infractions and removal for abuse, that could apply to our discussion so that there wasn't extended conflict over wildly wrong conclusions. Discendo Vox posted:It's not ever been based on factual disagreements, it's on the content and structure of the actual posts. I, like you, am capable of reading rapsheets and post histories and remembering who was banned from the previous version of the thread. I'm able to remember when there were rules about sourcing, and meeting effort with effort, and that the purpose of D&D is educational. I'm able to remember subject matter experts saying they were being driven out of the thread. I'm able to remember you repeatedly talking about the bad state of the thread...and then doing nothing about it. Can you remember what the first rule is? Have you read it? It ends with “disengage gracefully and report them.” I’ve seen you barge into many threads demanding the rules be enforced how you want them to be, but you don’t seem to give them any heed yourself. Why should people take you seriously?
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Dec 8, 2021 07:10
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