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Which horse film is your favorite? This poll is closed. |
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| Black Beauty |
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2 | 1.06% |
| A Talking Pony!?! |
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4 | 2.13% |
| Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor |
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117 | 62.23% |
| War Horse |
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11 | 5.85% |
| Mr. Hands |
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54 | 28.72% |
| Total: | 188 votes | ||
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Morbus posted:Denmark and the UK are the places to watch (for now) to see if the virus behaves much differently in a highly vaccinated population (as opposed to South Africa, where the great majority of the population has had prior exposure to SARS-CoV2 but not vaccines). As I posted earlier, we have good data on how reduced neutralization by antibodies affects outcomes in vaccinated populations, and that is the most reasonable starting point for assumptions we make about how omicron may behave in those populations. Israel also seems like a good once to watch, as they have a highly-vaccinated+boosted population, already have omicron cases and generally have been good with tracking spread given their small size. IIRC they were also one of the first to drop the dirt on delta so I would expect a similar pattern for this variant.
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Dec 8, 2021 07:18
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Denmark is probably going to announce more restrictions shortly - I believe Mette Frederiksen is holding a press conference tonight. A coworker his wife and 3 kids are all home with COVID since late last week, another reported symptoms and a positive test last night. He has a newborn at home. :/ Off to check the daily stats for DK.
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Dec 8, 2021 07:43
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TheSlutPit posted:Israel also seems like a good once to watch, as they have a highly-vaccinated+boosted population, already have omicron cases and generally have been good with tracking spread given their small size. IIRC they were also one of the first to drop the dirt on delta so I would expect a similar pattern for this variant. Once it takes off there, it will definitely be the place to watch as far as boosters go. But (known) cases there are still pretty low and not taking off like e.g the UK (yet). Back when it was first reported that convalescent+vaccinated sera was able to neutralize mutant spike that vaccinated sera had problems with, everyone wondered whether repeated boosting would achieve something similar, or if there was something qualitatively different about antibodies from an actual infection that then get boosted. Guess we're about to find out, the dumb way.
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Dec 8, 2021 07:46
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Platystemon posted:I should preemptively provided a citation for that one, but come on, man. It’s not an “underlying error” to say “the population of the United States is three hundred and thirty million” because you failed to cite “U.S. Census 2020”. This is a poo poo job of science communication and something you routinely do. Instead of actually responding to other posters, you make vague or cryptic allusions and paste a bunch of graphics or tweets as if they support whatever claim you didn't make. It is much more helpful if you make claims or interpretations to accompany the data and graphics you link. It is not my job to do the interpretation for you. I can't/won't engage with much of what you post because there are no accompanying claims and you don't do any analysis. Then you often complain about how people won't engage you in civil debate/discussion when you've made no claims or analysis to debate/discuss. The burden is on you to present an analysis, not on the reader to reach the same conclusion you have (but don't state). Your post I quote above contains zero analysis or commentary of your own, and I will cannot and will not engage with it. Contrast with something I can respond to: Morbus posted:I think you're misrepresenting the antibody binding data a bit. The visualization tool from Bloom's lab ("calculator) isn't based on in silico simulations. They used modified yeast to express CoV2 spike (with whatever mutations they wanted), put those proteins against actual antibodies in vitro, and measured their effectiveness. The calculator tool is just a convenient way to aggregate and visualize all that data. You're right, the Bloom lab tweets involve both simulation/calculator stuff and in vitro lab experiments. It's been a long day and that's on me, it was not my intent to misrepresent the Bloom data in my post. My broader point stands, I think--we have some lab and computer simulation data to strongly suggest limited antibody neutralization by 2-shot vaccines for Omicron. We're still lacking in epidemiological population-level data which will tell us for sure what the transmissibility, disease severity, vaccine evasion etc is. I wanna restate here that I am not nor have I ever advocated for relaxing precautions, we should all maintain the same level of vigilance we (should) have for Delta: get vaccinated/boosted, wear appropriate masks, avoid indoor close contact etc. IMO what we know of Omicron doesn't really change our behavior, it just reinforces that we shouldn't relax from the precautions we should have been taking for the last ~2 years. I don't disagree with anything you've stated. I agree that data from the UK, Denmark, Israel etc in the coming weeks will be very informative. As we enter the holidays, about all we can do (speaking from a US perspective) is encourage people we know to get vaccinated/boosted, wear appropriate masks, and limit our indoor close exposure. I'm seriously reconsidering plans to drive to Texas and see extended family after Christmas, personally. Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 08:03 on Dec 8, 2021 |
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Dec 8, 2021 08:00
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Fritz the Horse posted:Your post I quote above contains zero analysis or commentary of your own, and I will cannot and will not engage with it. It’s not supposed to have any analysis or commentary. It is nothing more and nothing less than belated references for where that graph’s numbers came from. You didn’t have to engage with, but you did anyway just to be mean.
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Dec 8, 2021 08:08
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mawarannahr posted:Can you remember what the first rule is? Have you read it? It ends with “disengage gracefully and report them.” I’ve seen you barge into many threads demanding the rules be enforced how you want them to be, but you don’t seem to give them any heed yourself. Why should people take you seriously? Because, as I also quote in that set of posts, we have also been told explicitly that we are expected to call out "obvious fake or insane poo poo". So posters are continuously obligated to engage with and "call out" all these things that the IK is refusing to address.
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Dec 8, 2021 08:09
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Thorn Wishes Talon posted:I don't think that is true: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(21)00306-2/fulltext
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Dec 8, 2021 08:13
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Platystemon posted:It’s not supposed to have any analysis or commentary. It is nothing more and nothing less than belated references for where that graph’s numbers came from. thanks, you've reinforced why I and other readers of this thread should not take you seriously: Fritz the Horse posted:It is much more helpful if you make claims or interpretations to accompany the data and graphics you link. It is not my job to do the interpretation for you. I can't/won't engage with much of what you post because there are no accompanying claims and you don't do any analysis. Then you often complain about how people won't engage you in civil debate/discussion when you've made no claims or analysis to debate/discuss. edit: I am perfectly happy to admit I was wrong or hosed up, see above. Morbus posted specific claims and analysis I can respond to. You just posted a bunch of graphics and then got offended when I pointed out you aren't actually saying anything. Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 08:20 on Dec 8, 2021 |
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Dec 8, 2021 08:13
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Thorn Wishes Talon posted:Exactly. The news in general continue to be good: Monica Ghandi is an rear end in a top hat and you should ignore her. John_A_Tallon fucked around with this message at 16:04 on Dec 8, 2021 |
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Dec 8, 2021 08:18
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Morbus posted:Once it takes off there, it will definitely be the place to watch as far as boosters go. But (known) cases there are still pretty low and not taking off like e.g the UK (yet). tbh my guess for a while has been that we'll end up with a yearly (probably) mRNA flu + COVID + (maybe other respiratory viruses idk) shot each fall, at least in the US and other wealthy nations as in, COVID might just become "another flu" with a higher mortality and we get a multivalent shot each year against the dominant strains/variants the good news is that might actually be amazing vs. the flu the bad news is we just assume a higher annual mortality from COVID and also developing nations get hosed e: I'm not saying this is good or what I want, but that's my guess as to where things are headed.
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Dec 8, 2021 08:25
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Fritz the Horse posted:Then you often complain about how people won't engage you in civil debate/discussion when you've made no claims or analysis to debate/discuss. I do not ask anyone to engage with me, and in fact if they cannot do so civilly, it is well that they do not. You admitted earlier that you had “gotten lost in the whole page of back-and-forth” and confused me with someone else, and I appreciate that you acknowledge that. I admitted that I should have preemptively linked sources for the graph’s overlaid claims. Perhaps we could all have more of that going forward and fewer hundred‐post‐kerfuffles about… I don’t even know how to describe the last few pages.
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Dec 8, 2021 08:35
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Platystemon posted:I do not ask anyone to engage with me, and in fact if they cannot do so civilly, it is well that they do not. Platystemon posted:It’s not supposed to have any analysis or commentary. It is nothing more and nothing less than belated references for where that graph’s numbers came from. 
Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 08:42 on Dec 8, 2021 |
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Dec 8, 2021 08:39
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I’ve made three posts on the last three pages. You may as well quote the other; it’s the one with the bunch of graphics (ACIP slides). The sea lion made more statements in a six‐panel comic. I genuinely do not understand what point you are making here, but that’s O.K..
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Dec 8, 2021 08:51
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The sea lion did nothing wrong in calling out that dude's casual, indefensible bigotry.
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Dec 8, 2021 09:15
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Fritz the Horse posted:tbh my guess for a while has been that we'll end up with a yearly (probably) mRNA flu + COVID + (maybe other respiratory viruses idk) shot each fall, at least in the US and other wealthy nations I really don't think we want to see what lies at the end of that path. For example, RBDs selected in vitro for tighter ACE2 binding have been produced with RBD->ACE2 affinity about 1-2 orders of magnitude better than the affinities of the best antibodies to spike (~8 pM vs ~50-100 pM). The mutations needed to get there are not very large in number (~dozen or so), and they are all simple point mutations. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-021-00954-4/ Do we really want to gently caress around and find out? Such point mutations will be robustly sampled even in many individual infections. The replication error rate for SARS-like coronaviruses is (very roughly) 10^-4 substitutions per nucleotide per cell infection (about a factor of 10 lower than most other RNA viruses due to the proofreader). With a genome 30kb large and anywhere from 10^5 - 10^8 cell infections in a typical case, it's easy to see that any simple AA substitution that can occur, does occur, many times. What ultimately determines whether such mutations accumulate and spread as a new variant is 1.) selective pressure favoring such mutations and 2.) a permissive inter-host environment where Rt > 1 is sustained long enough for variants with greater fitness to become established. If there is a collection of point mutations that can take RBD->ACE2 affinity from ~10x worse than the best antibodies to ~10x better, then it's fair odds that a variant with such a tightly binding RBD will emerge if it needs to--unless we can get Rt under control for a sustained period of time, globally. At that point, it really is down to T-cell immunity, and whatever drugs we can come up with (incidentally, this RBD selection work was done as part of a search for an efficient ACE2 blocker antiviral) I think it's important to remember that there are endemic pathogens which put a pretty huge disease burden on the population--now (HIV, malaria) and in the past (you name it). For some of these, we still don't have vaccines or even truly effective drugs, and have had to rely in large part on NPIs (mosquito abatement, not living in the wrong place, wearing condoms, STD tests). Do we really want to end up in a similar situation with a highly contagious airborne virus?
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Dec 8, 2021 09:36
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Morbus posted:I really don't think we want to see what lies at the end of that path. I do appreciate your detailed and fairly quantitative post The answer to "do we wanna gently caress around and find out" should, ideally, be "no thank you, let's maybe not gently caress around." Unfortunately that's not the world I live in (in the US) and you or I don't really have much ability to change that except incrementally and on a local level. I do think I've had some small effect pushing my students to get vaccinated/boosted. They don't really need any persuasion to mask up since we've had a mask mandate here since March '20 and compliance is close to 100%, it's about half/half surgical and N95s in my experience. I'm not advocating nihilism, basically everyone on SA is vastly more informed than most people. It's very much our duty to try wherever and however we can to advocate vaccination and masking, avoiding close indoor contact, other risk behaviors etc. I guess the main things I'd like to push back against are "lol vaccines don't work we're back to March 2020" and also remind folks that disease severity of Omicron is not well known. From computational and in vitro studies discussed here it seems very likely that antibody neutralization from two shots of vaccine is not gonna cut it re: infection, which fucks an awful lot of the world. Three shots of juice and/or an exposure to natural infection might be okay at preventing infection from Omicron, dunno. Very uncertain as to how vaccines and previous exposure protect us from severe disease, though it's expected that would be better preserved than sterilizing immunity against infection. Monoclonal antibody therapies are very likely totally hosed. Thankfully the Pfizer antiviral seems pretty effective (where available and affordable). Bottom line (imo): there are still a ton of unknowns about Omicron but it's important to be honest about the implications. We can't relax precautions for the winter holidays, we need to be just as vigilant as we should have been for Delta: vaccinate, boost, wear appropriate mask, avoid close indoor contact. edit: the antiviral medication Pfizer got approved and other similar stuff that's in the pipeline is really powerful since it interferes with viral replication at a fundamental level that's much less mutable than spike protein. Obviously those antivirals are mostly limited to wealthy nations/people but they're not really gonna lose effectiveness with mutations to spike protein and such. We could have a whole discussion about justice of access to vaccine/therapeutics but I assume everyone here is gonna come down on the side of "yeah it's poo poo that wealthy nations hog all of the fancy stuff" Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 10:09 on Dec 8, 2021 |
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Dec 8, 2021 09:59
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Bad news about Pfizer’s pill. It’s going to be in short supply for months. https://twitter.com/Alexander_Tin/status/1468226991430189059 Here is the video of the interview. The remark about volume is made eight minutes in. Platystemon fucked around with this message at 12:04 on Dec 8, 2021 |
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Dec 8, 2021 11:08
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Just as well omicron is mild then, it'd suck if it was as bad as covid classic
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Dec 8, 2021 11:20
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Platystemon posted:Bad news about Pfizer’s pill. Am i missing something or is the bad news just that it wont be plentiful until well into the first half of 2022?
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Dec 8, 2021 11:53
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Do we know yet that omicron is mild? Seems like hospitalizations are up up up recently.
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Dec 8, 2021 11:55
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Regarde Aduck posted:Am i missing something or is the bad news just that it wont be plentiful until well into the first half of 2022? You have correctly identified the bad part of the news.
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Dec 8, 2021 11:58
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I think the impact was lessoned by me not knowing there even was a new anti-viral
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Dec 8, 2021 12:08
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Regarde Aduck posted:I think the impact was lessoned by me not knowing there even was a new anti-viral Merck is also bringing one to market (Molnupiravir), but it’s less promising for several reasons.
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Dec 8, 2021 12:53
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John_A_Tallon posted:Monica GhanI is an rear end in a top hat and you should ignore her.
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Dec 8, 2021 14:20
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Why does every question in this thread come with a barb? Here, let me try. John_A_Tallon posted:Monica GhanI is an rear end in a top hat and you should ignore her. I don’t recall hearing about her before. What do you mean?
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Dec 8, 2021 14:29
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Antifa Turkeesian posted:Do we know yet that omicron is mild? Seems like hospitalizations are up up up recently. No we don't. First results are that antibodies don't seem to neutralize omicron as well, so there may be more breakthrough infections. That's all we know, cases currently might only be mild because the patients are young and/or vaccinated and/or had covid previously. We'll have to wait for more results to pour in.
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Dec 8, 2021 15:14
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My stupid school board voted to remove mask mandates in our county last night. Now my two kids get to go to school where masks are completely optional and nobody will enforce it. I loving hate people.
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Dec 8, 2021 15:46
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brugroffil posted:The sea lion did nothing wrong in calling out that dude's casual, indefensible bigotry. I thought it was the woman who made the sea lion statement. Either way, the Sea Lion Did Nothing Wrong.
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Dec 8, 2021 15:46
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Morbus posted:I think it's important to remember that there are endemic pathogens which put a pretty huge disease burden on the population--now (HIV, malaria) and in the past (you name it). For some of these, we still don't have vaccines or even truly effective drugs, and have had to rely in large part on NPIs (mosquito abatement, not living in the wrong place, wearing condoms, STD tests). Do we really want to end up in a similar situation with a highly contagious airborne virus? I do see COVID being a routine part of our near future if only because of the anti-vax population. And it does make me sad that we can't squash COVID outbreaks and deal with these other diseases simply because of the privileged ignorant.
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Dec 8, 2021 15:49
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:My stupid school board voted to remove mask mandates in our county last night. Now my two kids get to go to school where masks are completely optional and nobody will enforce it.  I think it was me and maybe half a dozen others (not counting employees, and even then) in a massive store last night.And Kentucky's positivity rate has almost doubled in the last week or so. Fun times ahead—I'm glad I was able to get my booster a few weeks back. CmdrRiker posted:I do see COVID being a routine part of our near future if only because of the anti-vax population. And it does make me sad that we can't squash COVID outbreaks and deal with these other diseases simply because of the privileged ignorant. Abner Assington fucked around with this message at 16:00 on Dec 8, 2021 |
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Dec 8, 2021 15:55
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CmdrRiker posted:I do see COVID being a routine part of our near future if only because of the anti-vax population. And it does make me sad that we can't squash COVID outbreaks and deal with these other diseases simply because of the privileged ignorant. There's nothing simple about any of that.
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Dec 8, 2021 15:59
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Great news https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1468569829594607617?s=20 https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1468584931978842126?s=20 Sucks that 2 doses offer some, but not strong protection, but it's good that Omicron breakthroughs seem to be pretty mild anyways.
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Dec 8, 2021 16:04
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KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:Can you say more about this for people who aren't terminally addicted to twitter Sure yeah, she's always been pushing the most positive and optimistic version of reality. She's one of those nitwits who cherry picks things to present the sunniest version possible instead of being, you know, pragmatic or cautious or anything we need in a highly visible supposed expert in infectious diseases. She's getting people killed with her bullshit, and thus is an rear end in a top hat. I hate her.
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Dec 8, 2021 16:07
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Pfizer is not exactly an unbiased source about the efficacy of Pfizer treatments, although it's probably safe to say that boosted Pfizer is doing something.
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Dec 8, 2021 16:08
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Vorik posted:Great news "infection" is the important word here. Of course, we won't know about the rest for a while...
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Dec 8, 2021 16:08
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the holy poopacy posted:Pfizer is not exactly an unbiased source about the efficacy of Pfizer treatments, although it's probably safe to say that boosted Pfizer is doing something. They've been pretty spot on about their Vaccine's protection in the past. Do you have anything showing otherwise?
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Dec 8, 2021 16:10
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No, just my pharmaceutical capitalistic mindset has conditioned me to be wary of a company saying "2 units of our product is death, but 3 units will save your life!" Thanks America. cant cook creole bream posted:There's nothing simple about any of that. Is that a criticism of reality or my oversimplification of reality? CmdrRiker fucked around with this message at 16:19 on Dec 8, 2021 |
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Dec 8, 2021 16:13
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As a parent of someone in the 5-11 range who is just coming up on two weeks from their second shot, I'm really curious what it means for that age group. Interesting to know how far out the two shot people from the study are. Are they 6 weeks, 6 months, etc?
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Dec 8, 2021 16:14
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Had to get a bulb for my wife's car the other day. I was the only one in the whole store, including employees, wearing a mask. While waiting in line two goobers were having a chat about how there's no way the vaccine could be modified for a new strain because "it takes at least ten years to make a vaccine, so they must have planned this" and other idiocy. The guy who obviously considered himself "the smart one" was wearing an Infowars t shirt. All I could do was keep muttering "loving morons" under my breath.
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Dec 8, 2021 16:18
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My dad is still agonizing over whether to get the booster because on the one hand all the trial data and reputable studies say it's safe and effective, but on the other hand Dr YouTube Algorithm says a Pfizer whistleblower is warning that the booster tricks your immune system into opening the door for the virus and gives you super covid There's just so much misinformation out there, there's just no way to know which side to believe, especially with the Democrats politicizing the vaccine! Mom got the booster at least. VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 16:21 on Dec 8, 2021 |
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