The US will lose WW3

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croup coughfield: Apr 8, 2020; Can't post for 72 days!

looking forward to it op

always wanted to see a type 99a up close

# ? Dec 4, 2021 20:04

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# ? May 26, 2024 03:20

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

Most of those war gaming whining is just so the US Military can demand a even bigger budget.

Also if there's any sign of a hilarious credibility gap for what the US military performs in the real world, look at how the US pretty much lost the war on terror including the
recent complete rout in Afganistan.

Even without the sleepy Joe decision, the ANA/Central government was already seeing a rapid turnover in terms of provinces over the year.

# ? Dec 4, 2021 20:07

Ramrod Hotshot: May 30, 2003

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

https://www.businessinsider.com/the-us-apparently-gets-its-rear end-handed-to-it-in-war-games-2019-3

The US has been getting 'its rear end handed to it' in war games simulating fights against Russia and China

In war games simulating a high-end fight against Russia or China, the US often loses, two experienced military war-gamers have revealed.

"In our games, when we fight Russia and China, 'blue' gets its rear end handed to it," David Ochmanek, a RAND warfare analyst, explained at the Center for a New American Security on Thursday, Breaking Defense first reported. US forces are typically color-coded blue in these simulations.

"We lose a lot of people. We lose a lot of equipment. We usually fail to achieve our objective of preventing aggression by the adversary," he said.

At the outset of these conflicts, all five battlefield domains � land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace � are contested, meaning the US could struggle to achieve the superiority it has enjoyed in the past.

In these simulated fights, the "red" aggressor force often obliterates US stealth fighters on the runway, sends US warships to the depths, destroys US bases, and takes out critical US military systems.

"In every case I know of, the F-35 rules the sky when it's in the sky," Robert Work, a former deputy secretary of defense and an experienced war-gamer, said Thursday. "But it gets killed on the ground in large numbers."

Neither China nor Russia has developed a fifth-generation fighter as capable as the F-35, but even the best aircraft have to land. That leaves them vulnerable to attack.

"Things that sail on the surface of the sea are going to have a hard time," Ochmanek said.

Aircraft carriers, traditional beacons of American military might, are becoming increasingly vulnerable. They may be hard to kill, but they are significantly less difficult to take out of the fight.

Naval experts estimate that US aircraft carriers now need to operate at least 1,000 nautical miles from the Chinese mainland to keep out of range of China's anti-ship missiles, according to USNI News.

"If we went to war in Europe, there would be one Patriot battery moving, and it would go to Ramstein [in Germany]. And that's it," Work explained, according to Breaking Defense. "We have 58 Brigade Combat Teams, but we don't have anything to protect our bases. So what difference does it make?" "If we went to war in Europe, there would be one Patriot battery moving, and it would go to Ramstein [in Germany]. And that's it," Work explained, according to Breaking Defense. "We have 58 Brigade Combat Teams, but we don't have anything to protect our bases. So what difference does it make?"

Simply put, the US military bases scattered across Europe and the Pacific don't have the anti-air and missile-defense capabilities required to handle the overwhelming volume of fire they would face in a high-end conflict.

In a conflict against a near-peer threat, US communications satellites, command-and-control systems, and wireless networks would be crippled.

"The brain and the nervous system that connects all of these pieces is suppressed, if not shattered," Ochmanek said of this scenario. Work said the Chinese call this type of attack "system destruction warfare."

The Chinese would "attack the American battle network at all levels, relentlessly, and they practice it all the time," Work said. "On our side, whenever we have an exercise, when the red force really destroys our command and control, we stop the exercise and say, 'let's restart.'"

"These are the things that the war games show over and over and over, so we need a new American way of war without question," Work stressed.

Ochmanek and Work have both seen US war games play out undesirably, and their damning observations reflect the findings of an assessment done from last fall.

"If the United States had to fight Russia in a Baltic contingency or China in a war over Taiwan, Americans could face a decisive military defeat," the National Defense Strategy Commission � a bipartisan panel of experts picked by Congress to evaluate the National Defense Strategy � said in a November report.

The report called attention to the erosion of the US's military edge by rival powers, namely Russia and China, which have developed a "suite of advanced capabilities heretofore possessed only by the United States."

The commission concluded the US is "at greater risk than at any time in decades."

hell yeah can�t wait lol

# ? Dec 12, 2021 05:39

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

know what the us military has demonstrated it can do. establish supply chains to anywhere.

# ? Dec 12, 2021 06:44

Palladium: May 8, 2012; Very Good
✔️✔️✔️✔️

Ramrod Hotshot posted:

In every case I know of, the F-35 rules the sky when it's in the sky," Robert Work, a former deputy secretary of defense

"I'm definitely not a guy with vested interests making a weasel statement!"

Palladium has issued a correction as of 06:54 on Dec 12, 2021

# ? Dec 12, 2021 06:51

Yuli Ban: Nov 22, 2016; Bot

Superiority? What superiority? Having actual jets compared to the GLA's postal service, never responsible for damaged goods? Last war we fought on even remotely equal ground with someone was either WWII or Korea.
Like seriously, we are totally unprepared for an actual Great Power war with someone because we've gotten so used to kicking the asses of/getting our asses kicked by farmers with AK-47s

Edit: Wait, just remembered the Persian Gulf War. Technically Iraq was a modernized military I guess.

Yuli Ban has issued a correction as of 08:19 on Dec 12, 2021

# ? Dec 12, 2021 08:17

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

Yuli Ban posted:

Edit: Wait, just remembered the Persian Gulf War. Technically Iraq was a modernized military I guess.

Not really, Iraq despite having impressive numbers on paper was nowhere close to western training and equipment.

Most of the Iraqi military was poorly trained and motivated conscripts, so hardly a "near peer" conflict

That's why all the major battles of the Persian Gulf such as 73 Easterling ended up turkey shoots for the US military.

# ? Dec 12, 2021 15:26

Centrist Committee: Aug 6, 2019

dta

I guess dtus in this case

# ? Dec 12, 2021 23:16

The Demilich: Apr 9, 2020; The First Rites of Men Were Mortuary, the First Altars Tombs.

Mantis42 posted:

you could post that in every c-spam thread

climate, doomsday economics, succ, my censored pitbull hate thread, all of them

Uhhhh... pardon?

# ? Dec 12, 2021 23:53

That Spooky Witch: Jun 16, 2017; All hail the triune god

i will give a passionate blowjob to anyone who spills state secrets or military intel with the chinese

professional grade, free of charge

# ? Dec 13, 2021 03:33

Mantis42: Jul 26, 2010

The Demilich posted:

Uhhhh... pardon?

They eat children

# ? Dec 13, 2021 03:40

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

they stole like all the security clearances a while back. I remember getting that email and being pretty pissed.

# ? Dec 13, 2021 03:41

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

Mantis42 posted:

They eat children

man a lot has happened in club music since 2007

# ? Dec 13, 2021 03:49

Filthy Hans: Jun 27, 2008; by Fluffdaddy
(and can't post for 10 years!)

The Demilich posted:

Uhhhh... pardon?

lots of Pittbull apologists out there and they have friends in the mod community

# ? Dec 13, 2021 05:47

That Spooky Witch: Jun 16, 2017; All hail the triune god

Filthy Hans posted:

lots of Pittbull apologists out there and they have friends in the mod community

i didn't realize pitbull was into the underage

# ? Dec 13, 2021 05:48

KomradeX: Oct 29, 2011

That Spooky Witch posted:

i didn't realize pitbull was into the underage

Should have been obvious when the CIA got him on on their latest anti-cuba scheme.

# ? Dec 13, 2021 08:02

SugarInverted: Nov 7, 2021

The US already won WWIII and WWIV

It's WWV that's looking dicey

# ? Dec 13, 2021 17:13

skooma512: Feb 8, 2012; You couldn't grok my race car, but you dug the roadside blur.

Palladium posted:

I mean like, c'mon dude, you are already failing so hard at handling shipping containers at mere 4% volume of one of your boogeyman's ports and you want to fight them at their doorstep?

Like, this was America's whole thing in WW2, using industry to out produce your enemy, and they don't have to ship it across the Pacific to use it.

# ? Dec 18, 2021 10:45

Anime Bernie Bro: Feb 4, 2020; FUCK MY ASSHOLE, LOL

Mantis42 posted:

They eat children

pitbull threads let the average joe make "despite making up 5% of the dog population..." posts

despiteposters need an outlet

# ? Dec 18, 2021 13:53

thatfatkid: Feb 20, 2011; by Azathoth

etalian posted:

Not really, Iraq despite having impressive numbers on paper was nowhere close to western training and equipment.

Most of the Iraqi military was poorly trained and motivated conscripts, so hardly a "near peer" conflict

That's why all the major battles of the Persian Gulf such as 73 Easterling ended up turkey shoots for the US military.

Easterlings were always meh imo, now if the US faced off against the Haradrim...

# ? Dec 18, 2021 23:12

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

skooma512 posted:

, and they don't have to ship it across the Pacific to use it.

international trade happens because the USN allows it to.

being regionally challenged doesn�t change that. and as vessels have gotten larger it�s more true than it was in the past.

# ? Dec 18, 2021 23:21

thatfatkid: Feb 20, 2011; by Azathoth

hence China building land trade networks via the Belt and Road initiative. China are future proofing everything about themselves while the West (mostly US, UK and Aus) collectively piss and moan about China stepping on their toes.

# ? Dec 18, 2021 23:37

Pener Kropoopkin: Jan 30, 2013

It's also why China is developing a blue water surface navy, even if in a real conflict it'd be useless. China needs to be able to challenge the US on the open oceans to have an international deterrent, and you can't really interdict shipping with submarines.

# ? Dec 18, 2021 23:42

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

3 million TEUs per year by 2040 is not as much as you think it is.

look at it this way in 2015 there was about 15 million TEUs of slots on the vessels that make up world container fleet. figure 150 to 200 million TEUs per year based on that.

belt and road will still be relatively small in 2040 compared to where ships were in 2015.

# ? Dec 18, 2021 23:46

Pener Kropoopkin: Jan 30, 2013

Bar Ran Dun posted:

3 million TEUs per year by 2040 is not as much as you think it is.

look at it this way in 2015 there was about 15 million TEUs of slots on the vessels that make up world container fleet. figure 150 to 200 million TEUs per year based on that.

belt and road will still be relatively small in 2040 compared to where ships were in 2015.

There is no "shipping" to landlocked countries in central Asia. Everything has to get there by plane, train, or truck.

# ? Dec 18, 2021 23:50

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

It's also why China is developing a blue water surface navy, even if in a real conflict it'd be useless. China needs to be able to challenge the US on the open oceans to have an international deterrent, and you can't really interdict shipping with submarines.

at-least not with the little diesel electric ones that are such a real brown water threat.

they don�t need to challenge the US, just to step in if we fell apart.

# ? Dec 18, 2021 23:53

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

There is no "shipping" to landlocked countries in central Asia. Everything has to get there by plane, train, or truck.

almost always after it first travels by vessel though.

# ? Dec 18, 2021 23:54

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

the important thing about belt and road is that they are thinking of the intermodal system as a system.

while we imagine some imaginary harmony will emerge from private companies.

# ? Dec 18, 2021 23:56

Ramrod Hotshot: May 30, 2003

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

It's also why China is developing a blue water surface navy, even if in a real conflict it'd be useless. China needs to be able to challenge the US on the open oceans to have an international deterrent, and you can't really interdict shipping with submarines.

Also, if they have the means to stage an amphibious invasion of Taiwan (and maybe actually use it on Kinmen) that might be enough to turn the screws on a political and economic reunification push.

# ? Dec 18, 2021 23:56

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Ramrod Hotshot posted:

Also, if they have the means to stage an amphibious invasion of Taiwan (and maybe actually use it on Kinmen) that might be enough to turn the screws on a political and economic reunification push.

they got ships that look like these:

they�ll need those for that

# ? Dec 19, 2021 00:01

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

those were the Russians btw

# ? Dec 19, 2021 00:02

Pener Kropoopkin: Jan 30, 2013

Bar Ran Dun posted:

at-least not with the little diesel electric ones that are such a real brown water threat.

they don�t need to challenge the US, just to step in if we fell apart.

What I mean by "challenging" the US is presenting a dangerous threat to the USN in international waters. Which is enough of a deterrent to make us think twice about trying to do piracy with Chinese shipping.

Which I suppose is a moot point anyway, because global demand for Chinese goods is already so high that loving with their shipping creates too many knock-on problems. The dependency is its own deterrent.

# ? Dec 19, 2021 00:09

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

. The dependency is its own deterrent.

we can�t have a war for this reason. we can each effectively annihilate each other via different means because of our interdependency.

if we implode politically though, that�s a different situation.

# ? Dec 19, 2021 00:31

Pener Kropoopkin: Jan 30, 2013

The possibility that we degenerate to the point where we're willing to start a war regardless is very real. That's true.

That's really the problem I have with trying to articulate to people why they shouldn't be WW3 or nuclear annihilation doompillers. You're thinking as if these are certainties and not possibilities. The reality of the possibility doesn't equate to its inevitability. You're leading yourself into unnecessary despair.

# ? Dec 19, 2021 00:34

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

we all know the actual war will be when a group of rogue colonels steal VX rockets that have the deadly string-of-pearls formation

# ? Dec 19, 2021 00:44

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

That's really the problem I have with trying to articulate to people why they shouldn't be WW3 or nuclear annihilation doompillers. You're thinking as if these are certainties and not possibilities. The reality of the possibility doesn't equate to its inevitability. You're leading yourself into unnecessary despair.

it�s a good way to analyze in general. possibilities with probabilities assigned.

# ? Dec 19, 2021 00:58

Mantis42: Jul 26, 2010

Anime Bernie Bro posted:

pitbull threads let the average joe make "despite making up 5% of the dog population..." posts

despiteposters need an outlet

I'm so tired of the "pit bulls = black people" talking point used by "the pittie nation". Disingenuous garbage.

Anyways a pit bull ripped a 4 year olds arm off today.

# ? Dec 19, 2021 07:19