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Salt Fish
Sep 11, 2003

Cybernetic Crumb
Not only will crypto not go away it will become too big to fail and get bailed out by the central banking authorities to prevent an economic meltdown when theres finally a run on the bank.

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ikanreed
Sep 25, 2009

I honestly I have no idea who cannibal[SIC] is and I do not know why I should know.

syq dude, just syq!

Xanderkish posted:

My take is that Bitcoin will run the course of every other too good to be true money making scheme, where it grows in popularity, meaning more people buy into it but also more people grow wise to it. Hopefully the latter outweighs the former and the fever breaks -- either by a crash or, more likely in my view, government regulation -- before too much harm happens. And then something else will take it's place. Bitcoin isn't the Mark of the Beast, it's just the latest of bubbles/scams, to eventually be replaced by another.

The thing is it's even emptier than previous (still going bubbles)

There's nothing conceptually there to center value on. Like when the tech boom happened, at least those companies were doing something. Even if Facebook was an extremely overvalued ad agency, they were at least actually an ad agency.

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


Salt Fish posted:

Not only will crypto not go away it will become too big to fail and get bailed out by the central banking authorities to prevent an economic meltdown when theres finally a run on the bank.
I guess it’s possible that the bigger it gets the less volatile it will become, but perversely the less attractive it will be for newcomers. It could be that it reaches a critical mass where it’s neither growing nor shrinking in an appreciable way.

Right now if you just approach it as a way to profit off hype and rubes then the gains are hard to ignore, but that’s not a palatable investment strategy for a lot of people, particularly if the gains get less and less dramatic whilst all the whilst retaining all of the negative aspects of it (e.g. no protection, no regulation, etc)

Xanderkish
Aug 10, 2011

Hello!

ikanreed posted:

The thing is it's even emptier than previous (still going bubbles)

There's nothing conceptually there to center value on. Like when the tech boom happened, at least those companies were doing something. Even if Facebook was an extremely overvalued ad agency, they were at least actually an ad agency.

In either case, the asset is overvalued, even if in one case it's overvalued from something and in the other case overvalued from nothing.

Granted, I'll be charitable and say that the notion of a decentralized currency is intriguing enough that's it not necessarily a valueless proposition. A lot of investments are into things that seem like they could have value, even if they never pan out. And Bitcoin has the benefit of technical obfuscation that conceals the underlying low-utility of the actual currency.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

ikanreed posted:

The thing is it's even emptier than previous (still going bubbles)

There's nothing conceptually there to center value on. Like when the tech boom happened, at least those companies were doing something. Even if Facebook was an extremely overvalued ad agency, they were at least actually an ad agency.

Think of it as a combination of Theranos (where people were investing in impossible promises) and the subprime mortgage crisis (where financial companies were repackaging and rebundling risky investments to the point where they couldn't even really tell what they were buying anymore).

Xanderkish
Aug 10, 2011

Hello!
Out of curiosity, I ran a google trends analysis comparing "bitcoin" with "real estate".



Far from a scientific analysis, but at least in terms of google trends, real estate was a pretty consistent trend, while Bitcoin, like the currency itself, was much more volatile. It shot up a lot in December of 2017, and is a little bit higher than its five year average, but not exactly knocking it out of the park.

I also tried comparing them both to Covid, but Covid dwarfed both, unsurprisingly.

egg_dog
Nov 12, 2005

nͬ͒̂̓̂ͪoͨ́
Fun Shoe
This better not be real.

https://twitter. com/FloydiesNFT /status/1468364201957597186?t=973nv9QBw6bV9LVdBPcILA&s=19

Edit: broke the link so people don't have to see it.

egg_dog fucked around with this message at 23:55 on Dec 12, 2021

Happy Landfill
Feb 26, 2011

I don't understand but I've also heard much worse
:catstare::catstare::catstare::catstare::catstare::catstare::catstare::catstare::catstare::catstare::catstare::catstare::catstare::catstare:

I hate it here

Captain Charisma
Nov 10, 2021

my money's on nazi psyop, "floyd[ d]ies" is literally the name and that's the poo poo they circlejerk to

e: also the exaggerated nose+lips and the red eyes and the jokerized NFT, yeah, def nazis

Captain Charisma fucked around with this message at 23:10 on Dec 12, 2021

Random Stranger
Nov 27, 2009



Durzel posted:

I guess it’s possible that the bigger it gets the less volatile it will become, but perversely the less attractive it will be for newcomers. It could be that it reaches a critical mass where it’s neither growing nor shrinking in an appreciable way.

Right now if you just approach it as a way to profit off hype and rubes then the gains are hard to ignore, but that’s not a palatable investment strategy for a lot of people, particularly if the gains get less and less dramatic whilst all the whilst retaining all of the negative aspects of it (e.g. no protection, no regulation, etc)

I think at this point crypto isn't pulling in significant numbers of new suckers, it's just getting the old suckers to throw even more money in.

Xanderkish
Aug 10, 2011

Hello!
I wasn't able to find data on historical trading of crypto, but there is evidence to suggest more people have traded it in the past 12 months.

quote:

More than 1 in 10 Americans invested in cryptocurrency over the past year, according to a survey published by the University of Chicago, a sign of the popularity of digital currencies like bitcoin and ethereum.

Specifically, 13% bought or traded crypto in the past 12 months — by comparison, 24% of Americans invested in stocks over the same time period, according to the survey.

Investors were likely spurred by a run-up in crypto prices earlier this year. Indeed, most crypto investors (61%) bought in over the past six months, according to NORC, a research group at the university that published the survey.

There's also some interesting stuff in there on how Crypto investors tend to be younger, more diverse, and less educated than people who invest in traditional stock options. The article also says that most financial advisors don't recommend crypto due to its volatility, but they didn't give a hard number for that.

coelomate
Oct 21, 2020


Historical trading of crypto was largely fake and took place on the MAGIC THE GATHERING ONLINE EXCHANGE d/b/a "Mt. Gox"

Mark Karpeles only wishes he had the foresight to invent stable coins. Back then it was almost impossible to cash crypto out to filthy fiat currency in a bank account, when this poo poo starts to go sideways, I predict people will realize that not much has changed.

One huge "innovation" of NFTs is something that crypto is actually "good" at purchasing: a purely digital asset. No need to get a bank to deal with you, and of course, plenty of opportunity for wash trades and pump'n'dump and frauds.

Dabir
Nov 10, 2012

did anyone say mt. gex yet

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

It's real in the sense that someone actually did upload those NFTs to a marketplace, but they're not shilling it nearly hard enough for it to be a real project, so it's probably just a white supremacist spending some of their extra ETH on a sick racist joke

egg_dog
Nov 12, 2005

nͬ͒̂̓̂ͪoͨ́
Fun Shoe
Everything is grim and I hate it. Reported the tweet/account at least.

Edit: trashed the link from my other post.

egg_dog fucked around with this message at 23:55 on Dec 12, 2021

Ad by Khad
Jul 25, 2007

Human Garbage
Watch me try to laugh this title off like the dickbag I am.

I also hang out with racists.

Happy Landfill posted:

What's the over under of crypto leading to another financial crash?

it's not big enough to cause a crash on its own but it is in prime position to get completely annihilated along with a bunch of other poo poo when something else causes a financial crash

the insane senseless market euphoria and "longest bull run in history" and "this poo poo cant last forever" was something we talked about when I went to college and that was before crypto existed and kind of a long time ago, I'm old

edit: of course I need to add the goon classic: "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain alive"

Ad by Khad fucked around with this message at 00:07 on Dec 13, 2021

Xanderkish
Aug 10, 2011

Hello!
Another way to put it is that smoking might not give you lung cancer, but you still shouldn't do it.

Prurient Squid
Jul 21, 2008

Tiddy cat Buddha improving your day.
Wait, wait, wait... so 1 Tether = 1 USD but it's not actually convertible? What does that actually mean?

Doctor_Fruitbat
Jun 2, 2013


Mad Dragon posted:

I don't know if it's been mentioned in the last 400 or so posts I skimmed over, but deviantArt is notifying artists when one of their images is stolen to create an NFT.

And if they can't steal your art, they simply steal your account, destroy every piece of artwork you uploaded there and use it to shill crypto:

https://twitter.com/RubberNinja/status/1470090601483972612?t=XS0xvA7HFBacJ3frhwVz-g&s=19

I follow a lot of artists on Twitter, and there have been a LOT of these, this is not even close to the first. NFT fuckers are sociopathic scum.

Liquid Communism
Mar 9, 2004

коммунизм хранится в яичках

Prurient Squid posted:

Wait, wait, wait... so 1 Tether = 1 USD but it's not actually convertible? What does that actually mean?

It means Tether does not, and never has, actually had any serious amount of USD, and hence will not redeem USDT for actual currency.

You may ask why, then people take them seriously when they print millions of USDT on a weekly basis, and to that I can say only this:

BUTTCOIN

Prurient Squid
Jul 21, 2008

Tiddy cat Buddha improving your day.
So there are imaginary coins that are intended to be constantly increasing in value terms of USD. Then there are other imaginary coins that are supposed to be completely static in terms of USD. Neither are easily convertable into USD. Also the coins that are supposed to be static have to be churned out at Weimar inflation levels in order to keep the other coins going up, up, up. And none of this is based on... anything?

coelomate
Oct 21, 2020


Prurient Squid posted:

Wait, wait, wait... so 1 Tether = 1 USD but it's not actually convertible? What does that actually mean?

The important thing to remember is that before Tether etc., it was nearly impossible to set up a crypto exchange, since the REAL MONEY side required a real financial institution.

Tether enables funny money swapping inside whatever random cloud server people set up. So there's enormous demand for "stable" coins kind of... regardless of if they make sense?

Tether is not redeemable, suspended from US operations, under investigation, and obviously a scam. But people want to create and trade crypto SO BAD that they just... ignore that. Because without Tether (and its ilk), online exchanges would be tiny due to existing financial regulations surrounding the fiat currency side of the equation.

coelomate
Oct 21, 2020


This incredible banner displayed at PAX Unplugged convention is up for charity auction:

https://twitter.com/Stringerplz/status/1470116853632618498

no_tears
Dec 20, 2020

Bing Bong
Need to make a car an NFT and issue new NFTs as the mileage goes up.

zedprime
Jun 9, 2007

yospos
Have you ever been to an arcade that uses tokens or mag striped cards instead of quarters? Have you ever been to a farmers market where you use tokens or mag striped cards instead of cash? These are examples of nonexchangable currency you use to buy into a system with the idea the system is doing something useful for you.

Tether is the same sort of token except for crypto exchanges. If uncontrolled token usage for security trading sounds like an awful idea, good news, you're sane.

CRUSTY MINGE
Mar 30, 2011

Peggy Hill
Foot Connoisseur
Tether printed $2bil on the 9th and another $1bil on the 7th, according to whale alert twitter.

DrPossum
May 15, 2004

i am not a surgeon
if you think of nfts as retribution from a vengeful god then they start to make a lot of sense

Salt Fish
Sep 11, 2003

Cybernetic Crumb

CRUSTY MINGE posted:

Tether printed $2bil on the 9th and another $1bil on the 7th, according to whale alert twitter.

Every tether is backed by 1 USDT, and since 1 USDT is worth 1 USD, it's fully backed bingo bango so simple

Dial A For Awesome
May 23, 2009

Prurient Squid posted:

Wait, wait, wait... so 1 Tether = 1 USD but it's not actually convertible? What does that actually mean?

You can convert your $1 to 1 Tether.

No backsies.

Strong Sauce
Jul 2, 2003

You know I am not really your father.





https://twitter.com/edzitron/status/1470168932283682816?s=21

acidx
Sep 24, 2019

right clicking is stealing
how did bloomberg of all places get @crypto?

EorayMel
May 30, 2015

WE GET IT. YOU LOVE GUN JESUS. Toujours des fusils Bullpup Français.

acidx posted:

how did bloomberg of all places get @crypto?

Take a wild guess

Xanderkish
Aug 10, 2011

Hello!
It's an asset to invest in, and people love talking about it on Twitter. Hence, a Twitter account for it.

The real question is how many people at Bloomberg work on the Crypto beat.

CaptainSarcastic
Jul 6, 2013



Xanderkish posted:

It's an "asset" to "invest" in, and people love talking about it on Twitter. Hence, a Twitter account for it.

The real question is how many people at Bloomberg work on the Crypto beat.

Fixed.

Xanderkish
Aug 10, 2011

Hello!
Funnily enough, as soon as I posted that, I immediately began to question my choice of both of those exact words.

acidx
Sep 24, 2019

right clicking is stealing

EorayMel posted:

Take a wild guess

Nice Van My Man
Jan 1, 2008

Keanu Reeves still being cool and correct:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/danidiplacido/2021/12/11/keanu-reeves-thinks-nfts-are-a-joke/

Zopotantor
Feb 24, 2013

...und ist er drin dann lassen wir ihn niemals wieder raus...

Salt Fish posted:

Every tether is backed by 1 USDT, and since 1 USDT is worth 1 USD, it's fully backed bingo bango so simple

Every USDT is backed by a real, actual US Dollar. You can go to Tether HQ and look at the dollar.

Mad Dragon
Feb 29, 2004


Excellent!

*air guitar*

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coelomate
Oct 21, 2020


If I'm reading this history tab right right, someone bought the hilarious NFT banner charity auction for its "buy it now" price of $420,69 after it had been bid up to $1,500 or so:

https://events.handbid.com/auctions/unplugged-unnft-banner/item/pax-unplugged-unnft-banner-1153275

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