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We've only just begun, to
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Dec 15, 2021 18:13
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It is increasingly looking like we're well past the point at which total eradication or containment of Covid is possible. Otoh we can't keep shutting down society periodically whenever there's a spike, that's completely unsustainable beyond a few years (at most). I'm obviously not privy to the discussions that are happening in the corridors of power right now, but I would hope that the authorities are now transitioning to a strategy of long term adaptation - in practice working towards creating a model to predict likely variants and push out modified annual vaccines accordingly, as we do with the flu. I do feel like there are some people holding out hope that one day covid will be 'over', and I can't help but feel that ship has kind of sailed.
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Dec 15, 2021 18:13
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That was the weirdest award acceptance speech I've ever watched.
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Dec 15, 2021 18:14
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ThomasPaine posted:Otoh we can't keep shutting down society periodically whenever there's a spike, that's completely unsustainable beyond a few years (at most) This is the least-effort option so this is absolutely what we're going to keep doing until we have a government that isn't completely poo poo.
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Dec 15, 2021 18:14
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Barry Foster posted:We definitely do know it's more transmissible than Delta - Japanese study suggests about 4.2 times more, we do know it has an incubation period of about 7-10 days, more like wild type than delta, and we definitely know it's very effective at breakthrough infections because of how it did in SA WhatEvil posted:I thought we did know a lot of these things? There's this from the New York Times: Sorry I should clarify that I meant we don't know with confidence, but going by the figures, that NYT article says the UK said 3.2x and you say the Japanese study says 4.5x, that means it's potentially between 720% and 1012.5% more transmissible than the original. Then with the incubation period it being 7-10 again instead of the 4+ of delta means changes to the spread will be slower to spot. As for the breakthrough cases my point was that we know it causes breakthrough cases but we don't know the comparative rate. As the NYT article suggests, these models rely on assumptions. We don't know omicron as well as we know prior variants by the sheer reality that this is a new variant and it takes time to gain solid data.
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Dec 15, 2021 18:21
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josh04 posted:This is the least-effort option so this is absolutely what we're going to keep doing until we have a government that isn't completely poo poo. They might try but it isn't sustainable because sooner or later pandemic fatigue kicks in and people just start ignoring it en masse. Arguably it already has amongst lots of the population. I doubt lots of people would pay a bit of attention if the govt called a lockdown tomorrow, and even if they tried to criminally enforce measures - whether or not that's a good strategy in the first place - there comes a point where the sheer scale of it means you just can't arrest everyone. Also Tories love making money, and lockdowns kill business. We all saw how much they dragged their heels the first time round.
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Dec 15, 2021 18:24
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The next stage in COVID evolution is when it makes the victims go "actually vaccination and lockdowns bad" like toxoplasma. Both Boris and Sajid have had it so that's the cerebral covid speaking.
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Dec 15, 2021 18:34
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ThomasPaine posted:They might try but it isn't sustainable because sooner or later pandemic fatigue kicks in and people just start ignoring it en masse. Arguably it already has amongst lots of the population. I doubt lots of people would pay a bit of attention if the govt called a lockdown tomorrow, and even if they tried to criminally enforce measures - whether or not that's a good strategy in the first place - there comes a point where the sheer scale of it means you just can't arrest everyone. There's also the passing fact that the Tories don't give a tuppenny gently caress about human life other than their own.
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Dec 15, 2021 18:35
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Jedit posted:There's also the passing fact that the Tories don't give a tuppenny gently caress about human life other than their own. Well, they care so long as those human lives are also profit-making automatons
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Dec 15, 2021 18:37
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Brendan Rodgers posted:It's another one of those weird things where we see it as an Americanism, but it's actually older than the existence of the US and is in fact another example of them having stuck to the original tradition more than we did. My point was they haven't, particularly, at least not at this point in time. Tracy still sounds like a girl's name over there by and large just like here, nobody seeing 'Tracy' as a name living in Buttfuck, Idaho is going to assume by default that's a man.
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Dec 15, 2021 18:37
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Reveilled posted:Is it? Based on this data, in the last five years (2016-2020) 410 baby girls in the US got names Tracy, while 245 boys got the same name. A 2/3rds-1/3rd split feels like a fairly solid "more or less unisex" to me. Talking about how the name is perceived, not who got called it in actuality, though. A whole 600 people over half a decade in a country with a population of 350 million or so is not exactly a lot.
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Dec 15, 2021 18:42
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ThomasPaine posted:They might try but it isn't sustainable because sooner or later pandemic fatigue kicks in and people just start ignoring it en masse. Arguably it already has amongst lots of the population. I doubt lots of people would pay a bit of attention if the govt called a lockdown tomorrow, and even if they tried to criminally enforce measures - whether or not that's a good strategy in the first place - there comes a point where the sheer scale of it means you just can't arrest everyone. The virus also kills businesses. The Tim Martins of the world might want to insist otherwise, but a dead employee can't sell a poo poo pint to a dead punter. That's the pattern we're seeing - while the virus isn't absolutely rampant, the government does nothing, when it is, they intervene once the number of ill people is actually loving everything up. I don't put too much stock in pandemic fatigue as an actual mover. The vast majority of Britains have stoically ignored the last ten years of creeping authoritarianism, why start objecting now? Piers Corbyn will march on parliament with 20,000 supporters, get kettled and go home. Periods of being told slightly less to do nothing but work and school followed by periods of being told slightly more to do nothing but work and school. Jedit posted:There's also the passing fact that the Tories don't give a tuppenny gently caress about human life other than their own. Definitely not arguing with this.
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Dec 15, 2021 18:44
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Tesseraction posted:It's too early to say how bad omicron will be. What's key is we don't know if it's more transmissible than delta, which was already ridiculously transmissible compared to the original strain, we don't know how effective it is at breakthrough infections outside of knowing it can infect the previously infected, we don't know whether it has a different incubation period. Not to say we need to slam the lockdown button but cautious optimism should be shelved for now. Dawg, by the time it's starting to cause backups in hospitals it'll already be too loving late. ThomasPaine posted:Otoh going purely by cases is pretty simplistic. Deaths/hospitalisations are still a fraction of what they were last winter, and that's the important figure. If they start spiking again then sure, it's time to worry. But so far, they aren't increasing proportionally with new cases, probably due to vaccine protection (and perhaps also omicron being a bit less deadly, if more contagious). As long as the NHS is coping with the numbers, knee jerk calls for harsh lockdown measures are probably at best overzealous. I've got some bad news for you. The NHS isn't coping already because of gently caress knows how long of "starve the beast" policies. Healthcare workers are already exhausted even before Omicron had developed. Waiting lists are up, up, up. Appointments at GPs are like gold. It's loving bad.
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Dec 15, 2021 18:58
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feedmegin posted:Talking about how the name is perceived, not who got called it in actuality, though. A whole 600 people over half a decade in a country with a population of 350 million or so is not exactly a lot. But surely its the perception of the name that lead to the gender spread of current Tracy namings? All I think about is birds of a feather.
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Dec 15, 2021 19:05
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In a world full of true natal wymyn called Tracy, one Tracy has a terrible secret. Robert Galbraith presents an all new Inspector Terf mystery: Dick Tracy
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Dec 15, 2021 19:12
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Regarding Tracy's status as a unisex name, I personally assumed Tracy Ullman was a man for years because they hosted a chat show in the US that I only ever read about in relation to the Simpsons. It definitely occupies the same space as Hillary or Ashley in my mind. Maybe Thunderbirds is to blame? Lots of male Tracies on that island.
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Dec 15, 2021 19:13
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My favourite Tracy was always Gordon, his submarine was cool and he mucked in with evrything else.
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Dec 15, 2021 19:14
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90% of the women aged 40-50 I know in real life are called Tracy or Lindsay now and I have no idea why
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Dec 15, 2021 19:21
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I like thunderbird 2 a lot but mainly as a delivery system for either TB4 or The Mole. 1 and 3 are both rockets, they should have combined the two and given the Mole full Thunderbird status imo. gently caress that stupid biplane too. John Tracy is the worst Tracy. They will never reveal the crimes that led to his space exile.
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Dec 15, 2021 19:26
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On 'where did British transphobia come from', this article is worth a read. Turns out that, as with many other things, it's at least partially down to us being a rentier economy - the UK was surprisingly tolerant until the Seventies, when a bunch of shithead aristocrats started getting worried that exclusively male inheritance of their properties was under threat. https://twitter.com/femme_thoughts/status/1458479790068047878?s=21
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Dec 15, 2021 19:29
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Mr Phillby posted:gently caress that stupid biplane too. THANK YOU! (why yes I am a huge Anderson nerd)
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Dec 15, 2021 19:38
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I get to vote tomorrow - any advice? I really hate the idea of voting for new-new labour but also don't see any viable alternative as I will never vote Lib dem even though I want the Cons out... Also I work for local government and have been supporting the NHS. The NHS here were given 1 hours advanced notice of Boris' speech, whilst we were given none. It's been a mental week and it's crazy to think the government do absolutely nothing to plan or prepare anyone for their announcements; really gives credibility to the idea that this was mainly a smokescreen away from the whole Xmas party situation...
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Dec 15, 2021 19:39
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Mr Phillby posted:I like thunderbird 2 a lot but mainly as a delivery system for either TB4 or The Mole. 1 and 3 are both rockets, they should have combined the two and given the Mole full Thunderbird status imo. gently caress that stupid biplane too. Agree on TB2 though, I like the atomic heated ramjets. I never did get why 4 got its own designation and not the Mole. Mr Phillby posted:John Tracy is the worst Tracy. They will never reveal the crimes that led to his space exile.
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Dec 15, 2021 19:48
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cos there weren't any more brothers. oh i didnt know that plane you're talking about was already 6. yeah thats bullshit NotJustANumber99 fucked around with this message at 19:54 on Dec 15, 2021 |
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Dec 15, 2021 19:52
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Sanford posted:- another name for a solar flare is a coronal mass ejection, you can’t tell me that’s a coincidence It's not a coincidence. The virus is named the corona virus because it's structure looks a bit like a corona. edit: anyone can hit me up if you need any other circle based factoids.
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Dec 15, 2021 19:53
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Alright archimedes.
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Dec 15, 2021 19:59
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SpitefulHammer posted:I get to vote tomorrow - any advice? I really hate the idea of voting for new-new labour but also don't see any viable alternative as I will never vote Lib dem even though I want the Cons out... Do something more constructive with your time, like learning to fart to the tune of La Bamba Or maybe vote Green for the slightly increased chance of Labour finishing fourth and/or losing their deposit.
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Dec 15, 2021 20:02
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Mr Phillby posted:I like thunderbird 2 a lot but mainly as a delivery system for either TB4 or The Mole. 1 and 3 are both rockets, they should have combined the two and given the Mole full Thunderbird status imo. gently caress that stupid biplane too. Alan and John are theoretically supposed to swap out but you rarely see it. He did some bad poo poo.
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Dec 15, 2021 20:04
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John Tracey is the product of cuckoldry, he has been sent away to hide his parents shame.
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Dec 15, 2021 20:07
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Guavanaut posted:In a world full of true natal wymyn called Tracy, one Tracy has a terrible secret. Lol
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Dec 15, 2021 20:21
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I always preferred their secret brother Ian Tracey, who they kept locked in a cupboard under the stairs. A pity he didn't show up more often though man, it's been a while since I picked up those Fist of Fun DVDs, might be time to pop one in!
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Dec 15, 2021 20:24
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Bailey shamelessly throwing all the other Toryboy Twats in that photo under the bus 
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Dec 15, 2021 20:49
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Seems fine, everyone knows it happened now. Is it the subtle "I attended" rather than organised means he's off the hook for the bigger fine and punishment?
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Dec 15, 2021 20:52
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smellmycheese posted:Bailey shamelessly throwing all the other Toryboy Twats in that photo under the bus This thing has been an interesting example of how marginalised group members suffer from undue prominence when in groups that are not equally representative and (usually) have to adhere to higher standards of behaviour than the rest of the group. Not trying to excuse the wrong that he's done as an individual, but I've seen only one other person from the photo publicly identified so far. The collective memory of this is going to be that Shaun Bailey broke the rules, not "here are the 50 people including a donor (why is a donor at a staff party?), and these are their roles in your government". While the rest of them crawl back into the woodwork, it's likely that he'll suffer more.
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Dec 15, 2021 21:57
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^^^^Surely they're primarily going to be no name non-political staff so there's little political reason to identify them?NotJustANumber99 posted:Seems fine, everyone knows it happened now. Is it the subtle "I attended" rather than organised means he's off the hook for the bigger fine and punishment? Yes I think only the organisers would be liable for the £10k fine but I think there'd still potentially be some punishment for attending. namesake fucked around with this message at 21:59 on Dec 15, 2021 |
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Dec 15, 2021 21:57
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^^^ yeahEndjinneer posted:This thing has been an interesting example of how marginalised group members suffer from undue prominence when in groups that are not equally representative and (usually) have to adhere to higher standards of behaviour than the rest of the group. Not trying to excuse the wrong that he's done as an individual, but I've seen only one other person from the photo publicly identified so far. The collective memory of this is going to be that Shaun Bailey broke the rules, not "here are the 50 people including a donor (why is a donor at a staff party?), and these are their roles in your government". While the rest of them crawl back into the woodwork, it's likely that he'll suffer more. I don't think any of the other attendees are instantly recognisable as London mayoral candidates. The only other person I've seen IDed is Nick Candy. I am guessing none of the others are high-profile at all.
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Dec 15, 2021 22:00
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forkboy84 posted:Dawg, by the time it's starting to cause backups in hospitals it'll already be too loving late. Oh I mean I think we need to take urgent actions to slow spread and whatnot, I'm specifically saying that given the unknowns we should focus on the caution not the optimism.
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Dec 15, 2021 22:00
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Isn't he just more famous than the others? He was the tory london mayoral candidate wasn't he?
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Dec 15, 2021 22:00
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OwlFancier posted:Isn't he just more famous than the others? He was the tory london mayoral candidate wasn't he? The one who lost like a loving idiot yes.
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Dec 15, 2021 22:01
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Laurence Fox lost like far more of a loving idiot.
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Dec 15, 2021 22:10
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