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Which horse film is your favorite? This poll is closed. |
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|---|---|---|---|
| Black Beauty |
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2 | 1.06% |
| A Talking Pony!?! |
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4 | 2.13% |
| Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor |
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117 | 62.23% |
| War Horse |
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11 | 5.85% |
| Mr. Hands |
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54 | 28.72% |
| Total: | 188 votes | ||
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Fritz the Horse posted:I never said there is pressure to make it less deadly, I'm not an evolutionary virologist. I've been consistent in this thread that it's dangerous to assume Omicron causes less severe disease because we don't actually have good data to show either way. I’m sorry are you suggesting that the claim needing to be proved here is that there is no clear source for selective pressure? Why are you not upset that someone suggested, and is a very popular misconception, that there currently exists selection pressure on covid to be less deadly? The second one is the affirmative claim. What evidence is there for that? Just even logically it doesn’t make any sense right now: the virus is spreading throughout the world without any trouble. Selection pressure is created when one mutation can spread better than another, and if something came after omicron that killed 10% of people nothing is going to make that less transmissible than what it is right now. It sounds like you’re seriously arguing that since I can’t prove definitively that the reduction in susceptible host population caused by the 1% IFR of covid is insufficient to cause pressure for a less deadly variant, we should just assume that the pressure exists and it will get less deadly. How unbelievably backwards in addition to being pedantic.
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Dec 17, 2021 11:53
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Or because that after the first two waves, immunity from previous infection and vaccinations and dampening the likliness of severe disease. I think we're still a few weeks from having data to be sure either way on severity, tbh.
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Dec 17, 2021 11:53
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Been less deadly so far. Either because the virus changed or because humans acquired immunity. Those waves all have nearly identical ratios, or was that the joke
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Dec 17, 2021 11:57
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Stereotype posted:Those waves all have nearly identical ratios, or was that the joke Might want to count how many waves are on the top graph and how many waves are on the bottom graph.
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Dec 17, 2021 12:05
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Might want to count how many waves are on the top graph and how many waves are on the bottom graph. There are three on each. Or are you also including the recent spike in cases that hasn’t yet translated to deaths? I really hope I don’t have to convince anyone that deaths lag cases and we just haven’t seen them yet.
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Dec 17, 2021 12:09
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Stereotype posted:There are three on each. Or are you also including the recent spike in cases that hasn’t yet translated to deaths? I really hope I don’t have to convince anyone that deaths lag cases and we just haven’t seen them yet. Cases spiked up November 23rd. No other set of deaths on that graph lags by 24 days. For example: the cases in the second wave peak on January 11th, Deaths Peak January 16th (Five Days). 24 days after the case peak (February 4th) on the graph the death count is already half way down the declining side of the wave. The lag on literally every feature on that graph is 5-10 days. No where else is there a single example of a 20+ death lag.
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Dec 17, 2021 12:16
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-17/s-africa-says-hospitalizations-in-omicron-wave-much-lower South Africa Hospitalization Rate Plunges in Omicron Wave “We have seen a decrease in a proportion of people who need to be on oxygen. They are at very low levels,” said Waasila Jassat, a researcher with the NICD. “For the first time there are more non-severe than severe patients in hospital.”
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Dec 17, 2021 12:22
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If non severe means one can still taste, I’m going to eat so much loving ham at Denny’s next week.
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Dec 17, 2021 12:27
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Yeah, you can make a fair argument that there is a delay between deaths and infection, but unless there is no a bigger delay between deaths and infections than there was before, those graphs are defintely not indentical any more. Not saying that this couldn't change in the future, or that there could be fault data, or all number of thing that might come out because it's early. It also isn't evidence that the infection is now causing less serious infections, as it could equally just be that higher amounts of immunity from vaccines and past infections is dampening the effect on serious illness.
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Dec 17, 2021 12:33
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droll posted:If non severe means one can still taste, I’m going to eat so much loving ham at Denny’s next week. Is ham the code word for u kno what these days?
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Dec 17, 2021 13:09
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hosts and mutations
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Dec 17, 2021 13:18
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crepeface posted:
Obviously, Omicron is less harmful. Look it's a calming green, while Delta is a menacing red! You make some weird indication that more mutations are automatically worse. Most probably do jack.
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Dec 17, 2021 13:28
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Realistically it being the humans that are acquiring immunity is probably a big part of the difference. However, there is evidence that omicron legitimately is better at infecting bronchial tissue and worse at lung tissue. Which makes a lot of sense. Becoming more of an upper respiratory illness is exactly what other human coronaviruses have converged on. https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/press/20211215-omicron-sars-cov-2-infection?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=press_release
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Dec 17, 2021 13:34
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This is by far the weakest of this sort of claim but it sure does look like you can just pick out the exact spot omicron started being the spreading variant in denmark. Or that it gotten to "about half" the cases time shifted back a little bit. 
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Dec 17, 2021 13:46
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crepeface posted:WA had a few delta scares and lockdown worked to us back to zero covid. Also, I remember this convo we had earlier in the year: "Scares," sure, but has WA actually had Delta community transmission within the state? You've had Delta positive people (or truckies who later tested positive) be present, but I'm not sure there's been any actual community transmission. Queensland I think is the better example of a place that has managed to swiftly crush it; IIRC they had a high school cluster that got up to like 5 or 6 cases a day for a few days and still managed to stomp it out. Which I think suggests there's an element of luck to being able to smother a Delta outbreak in the cradle. Unfortunately COVID only has to get lucky once, Queensland and WA have to (or had to, for Queensland) get lucky all the time. Look at the NT now - still attempting to put out a Delta spot fire that started a month ago with rolling community lockdowns, because it keeps cropping back up even after they've gone a few days or a week of no new cases. Re: everything you quoted from me, I stand by it, including Australia being one of the few Western countries to take this seriously. It still is. I got spooked by all the headlines about various European countries having to reintroduce "lockdowns" over the past month before actually reading the articles and realising that "lockdowns" for them means QR check-in codes and unvaccinated people not being able to go to bars - lol. quote:Honestly, NSW seemed like the biggest issue. If they had done as Melbourne had, we'd probably be close to zero covid nationwide. So, again, because nobody seems willing to acknowledge this: Melbourne locked down harder and faster over a Delta outbreak than Sydney did and still ended up with skyrocketing numbers that ended up worse than we'd ever seen. It gives me no pleasure to acknowledge this! I hated the smug attitude from certain too-online Sydneysiders in 2020, I hated the Murdoch press' fawning over Berejiklian and demonisation of Andrews, I hated the way Labor-governed states were pilloried for closed borders while SA and Tasmania mysteriously escaped criticism, I hated the obvious Liberal-driven politicisation of NSW's "gold standard" contact tracing, I hated the hubris that instilled, and I hated the way Berejiklian's government slowly ummed and ahhed its way into a lockdown while the rest of the country was screaming at them to do it immediately. In Victoria, with everything we'd already gone through, I hated the feeling of my state being joined at the hip and held hostage to the one state in the country that insisted on kicking against the pricks. But the fact that Delta subsequently went ahead and resulted in worse outcomes than 2020 ever saw in Melbourne, Canberra and Auckland - despite all of those cities' governing authorities doing everything right - should be demonstration enough to any reasonable person that it doesn't matter whether your government pussyfooted around or not, Delta was going to tear up your playbook anyway. I don't like that fact. It loving sucks. It would be a lot easier to still be able to blame everything on the hubris of Gladys Berejiklian and the rest of her cabinet, because it's easier to just hate a convenient villain. But Delta was just way more infectious. That is an opinion-free fact. You can read all about it in actual peer-reviewed scientific journals and not just the pre-prints this thread is so fond of. It's bizarre to me that people will accept this yet not accept the obvious inference that NPIs which worked against a less infectious virus in 2020 won't work against a much more infectious virus in 2021 - or at least not enough for a lockdown to accomplish elimination again.
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Dec 17, 2021 13:50
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Smeef posted:Is ham the code word for u kno what these days? All I’m saying is that there will definitely be moons over my hammy this weekend. It looks like my fiancée and I are going to have to cancel our wedding, which is currently scheduled to take place three weeks from tomorrow. We had already postponed it by a year due to COVID, but we thought it would be okay this year, given that our area has implemented vaccine passports - however, the provincial government on our side of the border has implemented restrictions as of yesterday, which means that the province next door (where our venue is) will be doing likewise. This time will be a full cancellation, as neither of us are willing to re-plan everything for a third time, and I think we both see the writing on the wall that more mutations are just going to send us right back into lockdown in a year. It’s small potatoes when compared to having a functional health care system and keeping as many people alive as possible, and we’re both lucky in the sense that we can work from home through the coming wave, but it still sucks.
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Dec 17, 2021 13:58
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UCS Hellmaker posted:Evolutionary pressure actually. Otherwise the flu of 1918 would still be killing people now. Bacterial and viral infections want to maximize potential hosts, which means that over time things will select for milder strains because rapidly killing your host actually lowers your abity to reproduce and spread. It's the same principle with parasites. It could happen. There is no guarantee that it will. Plenty of perfectly deadly diseases have been circulating in humanity for centuries, we've just gotten much better at being able to treat a lot of them.
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Dec 17, 2021 13:58
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https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1471749391585214465 Again preliminary with many caveats but it will be interesting to see the same data from other countries.
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Dec 17, 2021 14:09
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Charles 2 of Spain posted:https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1471749391585214465 Wow this is great news, hopefully it holds up
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Dec 17, 2021 14:39
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Would SA be a good barometer for severity since they have more unvaccinated people than in say, Europe or the US?
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Dec 17, 2021 14:43
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Hard to know, they also have a lot of previously infected people as well, which is probably closer to the UK and US.
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Dec 17, 2021 14:48
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FlamingLiberal posted:Would SA be a good barometer for severity since they have more unvaccinated people than in say, Europe or the US? My understanding is it's a bit harder to tell since while they have extremely low vaccination rates (25% of total population or so IIRC), past waves hit so hard it's assumed like at least half the population has had COVID in some form by this point.
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Dec 17, 2021 14:49
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FlamingLiberal posted:Would SA be a good barometer for severity since they have more unvaccinated people than in say, Europe or the US? I think in any other circumstance their data would be trusted. It's mostly that what it's saying is fairly fantastical that (maybe rightfully) is making it feel harder to swallow. (although I'm not sure people would be giving it this level of great skepticism if the same data had indicated the opposite)
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Dec 17, 2021 14:55
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I'm not skeptical of the data, but we need more of it to draw any significant conclusions, especially for how this will play out globally. But this coupled with the reports from clinicians in South African hospitals makes for some better news at least.
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Dec 17, 2021 15:02
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:This is by far the weakest of this sort of claim but it sure does look like you can just pick out the exact spot omicron started being the spreading variant in denmark. Or that it gotten to "about half" the cases time shifted back a little bit. Denmark did not in fact cross over to +50% Omicron cases at the end of November. There had only been 63 Omicron cases in total at that time, versus the ~5k daily Delta cases. All suspected cases from that period have been fully sequenced. What has happened is that the most frail have had a 3rd dose (or "first revaccination" as it is called officially); ~82% of 70+ currently. That has nothing to do with the relative danger of Omicron versus Delta, where the current message from health authorities is that it is not milder than Delta. Sources: Danish CDC Omicron report - https://files.ssi.dk/covid19/omikron/statusrapport/rapport-omikronvarianten-11122021-uy12 Report on vaccinations ("Andel af borgere der har fået 3. stik") - https://coronasmitte.dk/nyt-fra-myndighederne/vaccinationsindsatsen-i-tal
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Dec 17, 2021 15:06
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Pingui posted:Denmark did not in fact cross over to +50% Omicron cases at the end of November. There had only been 63 Omicron cases in total at that time, versus the ~5k daily Delta cases. All suspected cases from that period have been fully sequenced. Oh well then, if you are counting only lab confirmed cases and not estimates of spread then the news gets even better! https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/epidemiological-update-omicron-data-16-december All cases in the EU/EEA for which there is available information on severity were either asymptomatic or mild. Within the EU/EEA there have been no Omicron-related deaths reported thus far.
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Dec 17, 2021 15:11
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Oh well then, if you are counting only lab confirmed cases and not estimates of spread then the news gets even better! I have no idea what you are trying to say here. Denmark sequences all cases that can be sequenced, it takes time, but the initial cases were prioritized. Are you under the impression that Denmark had 2.5k daily Omicron cases by the end of November?
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Dec 17, 2021 15:17
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crepeface posted:
Do you have a reference that a virus having more mutations (vs. some reference that caused a pandemic) makes it cause more severe illness
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Dec 17, 2021 15:37
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Charles 2 of Spain posted:https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1471749391585214465 https://twitter.com/courtneymilan/status/1471828753445576709 James Garfield posted:Do you have a reference that a virus having more mutations (vs. some reference that caused a pandemic) makes it cause more severe illness It's worrisome for long term vaccine effectiveness, just for one thing, as it means the lynchpin of the RNA vax is a moving target.
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Dec 17, 2021 15:44
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freebooter posted:I don't think my country is broken at all. I think our Australia's COVID response was exemplary. This is probably why I've managed to accept that COVID-zero is impossible, because I saw first-hand what it was like to live in a place that actually gave it shot. There are more Chinese living overseas with families still in china than the entire population of Australia. Are you suggesting that the homogeneous and authoritarian Chinese don't like visiting their families? Also I think its hilarious that even in 2022 people outside of China still think that the lock downs in there are some sort of authoritarian nightmare that's somehow onerous to the population. With a well maintained quarantine system and tracking system any outbreak is pretty easily contained and impact on the population is fairly minimal. GlassEye-Boy fucked around with this message at 16:47 on Dec 17, 2021 |
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Dec 17, 2021 15:46
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E: wrong thread
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Dec 17, 2021 15:55
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There's basically no severity level that isn't "literally the common cold" that would not put a ton of strain on healthcare systems with the growth rates that are being observed in multiple countries right now. I honestly don't know what to think about South Africa, but for western countries, even South Africa's most optimistic data doesn't seem to work out with this being nothing, or some miracle variant that's going to give us all immunity in exchange for a couple of sneezes.
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Dec 17, 2021 16:04
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Uh, I'm pretty sure starting with the millions of cases we have of delta and the hundreds of cases we have of omicron that either doubling rate would get us to it infecting every human every day before next spring.
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Dec 17, 2021 16:07
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Uh, I'm pretty sure starting with the millions of cases we have of delta and the hundreds of cases we have of omicron that either doubling rate would get us to it infecting every human every day before next spring. I mean, pretty clearly it's going to hit a limit and burn out relatively quickly, and also realistically the doubling rate is going to go down some even without restrictions, since people will limit their own contacts when cases / severe outcomes get high enough (although we'll probably be reading tea leaves on positivity rates since testing capacity will be overwhelmed). Either way though, it's going to infect a fuckton of people before this wave is over. The doubling rate reported is pretty consistent everywhere it's being tracked though, there's not much reason to think it's inaccurate. We've been hovering between an Rt of 3 and 5 in Ontario, and a doubling time of 2 to 3 days. It went from 10% of cases to dominant in less than a week.
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Dec 17, 2021 16:10
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StratGoatCom posted:https://twitter.com/courtneymilan/status/1471828753445576709  i'm glad we have a dinosaur mom and smartwatch book author here to explain covid to us foolish laymen
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Dec 17, 2021 16:13
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^^^^ Exactly.Owlofcreamcheese posted:Uh, I'm pretty sure starting with the millions of cases we have of delta and the hundreds of cases we have of omicron that either doubling rate would get us to it infecting every human every day before next spring. quote:I write books about carriages, corsets, and smartwatches. Mother of dinosaurs 🦖🦕. 羽生結弦/紀平梨花 fan account. She/her. The dinosaurs are trans. I am cis.
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Dec 17, 2021 16:14
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i like how all of the covid twitter celebrities (well, the above one is not a twitter celebrity) have handy ways to reference them like "dinosaur mom", "doritos epidemiologist", and "furry virologist".
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Dec 17, 2021 16:16
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Main Paineframe posted:
It's basic math, dude.
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Dec 17, 2021 16:23
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StratGoatCom posted:It's basic math, dude. The basic math is that either doubling rate infects *everyone* in such a small amount of time that it doesn't seem like it would matter for things like hospitalization, since hospitals aren't going to care if they have 100 million cases a day in a few months because a slower doubling starting with a big number or a fast doubling starting with a small number.
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Dec 17, 2021 16:40
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Assuming one million cases worldwide so far, and a doubling every 2 days, it is clear that within a month Omicron will have infected 16 billion people. You can't argue with that math, guys. 
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Dec 17, 2021 16:41
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