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Which horse film is your favorite? This poll is closed. |
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| Black Beauty |
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2 | 1.06% |
| A Talking Pony!?! |
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4 | 2.13% |
| Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor |
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117 | 62.23% |
| War Horse |
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11 | 5.85% |
| Mr. Hands |
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54 | 28.72% |
| Total: | 188 votes | ||
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Wang Commander posted:You don't need this. You need lightning-fast population-scale track and trace, internal travel restrictions, and 100% testing. You think China has closed its ports? They have done well, but it’s not correct to say China has been flawless or bulletproof. 80 cases a day is tiny compared to other countries but they haven’t hit zero in months, their plans also leak. Even if they leak less.
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Dec 18, 2021 06:53
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Reading Australians complain about their "harshest lockdowns in the world lasting for 6 months" but enjoying more freedom between is wearing a bit thin given I've been in the same harsh lockdown for 18 months with no reprieve. Just because the US governments don't give a poo poo about us doesn't mean there aren't millions of us in self imposed lockdown. The only difference is going to the supermarket is even more risky for me.
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Dec 18, 2021 06:58
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droll posted:Reading Australians complain about their "harshest lockdowns in the world lasting for 6 months" but enjoying more freedom between is wearing a bit thin given I've been in the same harsh lockdown for 18 months with no reprieve. Just because the US governments don't give a poo poo about us doesn't mean there aren't millions of us in self imposed lockdown. The only difference is going to the supermarket is even more risky for me. If you are fully vaxxed and not in any of the super-vulnerable categories you are likely to be just fine if you catch it. The odds are in our favor.
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Dec 18, 2021 07:36
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droll posted:Reading Australians complain about their "harshest lockdowns in the world lasting for 6 months" but enjoying more freedom between is wearing a bit thin given I've been in the same harsh lockdown for 18 months with no reprieve. Just because the US governments don't give a poo poo about us doesn't mean there aren't millions of us in self imposed lockdown. The only difference is going to the supermarket is even more risky for me. A self imposed lockdown is not the same as one enforced by the state. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Dec 18, 2021 07:51
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CelestialScribe posted:A self imposed lockdown is not the same as one enforced by the state. Correct. Going out to get food supplies is far more dangerous for us.
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Dec 18, 2021 07:53
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So I'd like to circle back to the conversation about evolution and selective pressures on SARS-CoV-2. Will it attenuate and cause less severe disease? Will it get nastier? Both have been asserted itt. I think making broad generalizations about viral evolution is not very useful; the reality is far more complicated and none of us here (afaik) are evolutionary virologists. Just because a particular direction seems "reasonable" does not mean it is actually supported by evidence. Real-world biology is extremely complex and there's more at play than just trade-offs between transmissibility and severity of disease. Theorycrafting viral evolution based on "reason" without referencing any of the actual research is nonsensical. To try and illustrate my point, I did a couple Google Scholar searches for key terms relating to viral evolution, evolutionary pressure, and SARS-CoV-2. Here are the first three relevant hits I got for publications from 2021 that have free access to full text: (-> short summaries mine, I spent about 15min on each and I'm sure I missed tons of details, this is just a quick skim) Evolutionary trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 and emerging variants https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12985-021-01633-w ->The authors look at mutations that are positively selected for in other human coronaviruses (both mild cold-causing ones and severe). They conclude that SARS-CoV-2 is accumulating mutations which grant it increased transmissibility and immune evasion but also decreased disease severity. They warn that transmission back to humans from animal reservoirs could alter this trajectory. A Path toward SARS-CoV-2 Attenuation: Metabolic Pressure on CTP Synthesis Rules the Virus Evolution https://academic.oup.com/gbe/article/12/12/2467/5943888?login=true -> Enveloped RNA viruses such as SARS-CoV-2 have their metabolism limited in several ways by availability of cytidine triphosphate. As a result, evolutionary pressure will favor replacement of C's in the RNA code with U's. This is a limit on the viral genome and restricts evolution of the virus. The authors believe this will lead to attenuation in the long-term, but perhaps with increased pathogenicity short-term. Natural selection in the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in bats created a generalist virus and highly capable human pathogen https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3001115 -> When a virus shifts from one host species to a new one, usually it has an adaptation which is particularly good at exploiting the new species. Looking at bat sarbecoviruses, this doesn't seem to be the case for SARS-CoV-2, it's actually a generalist. This means both that it can infect a wide variety of mammals and that it's not really well adapted to humans as a host. In fact, there appears to be very little selective pressure and evolution for the virus in the first ~year of the pandemic (this study does not have data from Delta or Omicron). From those three pretty randomly chosen studies my takeaway is that 1) the virus is not yet well-adapated to humans as a host 2) we should be very concerned about animal reservoirs and 3) there's some lines of evidence to suggest it might attenuate and cause less severe disease. The third point is based not on vague reasoning but on specifics of viral metabolism and comparison with mutations and selective pressures in other human coronaviruses. I'm not trying to make a case that COVID will attenuate and cause less disease. You can easily find plenty of publications that suggest the opposite. Those are just a random three I grabbed. My point is that viral evolution is very complex and trying to reduce it to "just-so" stories doesn't have much value and ignores tons of nuance and important related considerations. Such as the animal reservoir bit, that has me quite concerned after skimming those publications. Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 08:14 on Dec 18, 2021 |
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Dec 18, 2021 08:11
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-17/s-africa-says-hospitalizations-in-omicron-wave-much-lower
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Dec 18, 2021 08:39
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droll posted:Correct. Going out to get food supplies is far more dangerous for us. If you chose to do something, the psychological effect is something completely different than having no option to do it.
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Dec 18, 2021 08:44
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crepeface posted:Melbourne, Canberra and Auckland have failed because....? Delta is more infectious and the short-sharp lockdowns that worked so effectively last year often no longer work. quote:You keep saying that you have to get lucky all the time like it's a fact. But you're also saying that proximity to Sydney was the issue. And also that Melbourne's borders weren't closed to Sydney? Victoria's borders were closed to NSW. The Delta outbreak spread down here because of removalists who were classed as essential workers. You know, like how most of WA's Delta scares come from truckies and container ship crews. quote:...if our policy of lockdowns and hard borders didn't work then I wouldn't support them? But they did work????? They've worked so far. Like how Victoria's worked, up until the point they didn't. The point we got unlucky. I'm not saying WA hasn't done an excellent job over the past two years and I'm not sure you're arguing WA's hard borders should actually remain in perpetuity rather than come down in February. I'm saying that maintaining COVID-zero in a highly vaccinated world requires more onerous impositions than it's worth.
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Dec 18, 2021 09:05
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Fritz the Horse posted:I think making broad generalizations about viral evolution is not very useful; the reality is far more complicated and none of us here (afaik) are evolutionary virologists. "Under the most strictly controlled conditions of temperature, medium, and nutrition, the bacterium will do whatever it drat well pleases." I forget the original quote source but it came up in one of my microbiology courses. I recall it was something like finding a urease-negative strain of Proteus vulgaris where being urease+ is a major differential trait... Ed: preemptive - it applies to viruses too
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Dec 18, 2021 09:06
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386-SX 25Mhz VGA posted:If Omicron has greater vaccine evasion or reinfection risk, couldn't a higher number of mild cases caused by symptomatic vaccinated/previously infected people seeking testing (who with Delta might not have been infected or developed symptoms) push down the case-hospitalization rate despite the individual risk of severe disease staying the same (or even increasing)? There was a good tweet James Ward about the fact that if you suddenly see a massive increase in case numbers, hospitalisation percentage will always go down, because you've suddenly got loads of people who arent at the stage where you know they will either be hospitalised or not proportionatley. Something to watch once case numbers have levelled and after the delay. Weasling Weasel fucked around with this message at 11:08 on Dec 18, 2021 |
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Dec 18, 2021 09:23
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:They have done well, but it’s not correct to say China has been flawless or bulletproof. 80 cases a day is tiny compared to other countries but they haven’t hit zero in months, their plans also leak. Even if they leak less. They've prevented growth from ever setting in. 80 a day without constant large scale lockdowns OR exponential growth is what "living with the virus" looks like.
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Dec 18, 2021 09:34
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Be interesting if that can still be possible with Omicrons infectiousness though.
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Dec 18, 2021 11:08
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How are u posted:If you are fully vaxxed and not in any of the super-vulnerable categories you are likely to be just fine if you catch it. The odds are in our favor.
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Dec 18, 2021 11:16
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pumpinglemma posted:Do people in this thread even remember that long Covid exists? A ~10% chance of long-term disability even when double-vaxxed (and who knows what that will be for omicron) is not the same as “the odds are in your favour”, what the gently caress. I think they meant "may the odds be ever in your favor"
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Dec 18, 2021 12:09
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droll posted:Reading Australians complain about their "harshest lockdowns in the world lasting for 6 months" but enjoying more freedom between is wearing a bit thin given I've been in the same harsh lockdown for 18 months with no reprieve. Just because the US governments don't give a poo poo about us doesn't mean there aren't millions of us in self imposed lockdown. The only difference is going to the supermarket is even more risky for me. Their lockdowns were horsehit and had all kinds of absurd shops and stuff listed as "essential" they were dumb as hell.
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Dec 18, 2021 12:29
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Fritz the Horse posted:Just because a particular direction seems "reasonable" does not mean it is actually supported by evidence. Real-world biology is extremely complex and there's more at play than just trade-offs between transmissibility and severity of disease. Theorycrafting viral evolution based on "reason" without referencing any of the actual research is nonsensical. quote:Evolutionary trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 and emerging variants I find the second article pretty interesting in concept at least. It's at least the kind of thing I'd be looking for in an answer to the question I posed if it was more confident in the conclusion since it was well outside what I would have considered. Unfortunately, I can't do too much aside from nod along with the abstract and (very speculatively and probabilistically worded) conclusion here since I don't have enough background knowledge to connect all the dots in the whole paper. Suzera fucked around with this message at 13:06 on Dec 18, 2021 |
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Dec 18, 2021 13:00
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Radical 90s Wizard posted:Their lockdowns were horsehit and had all kinds of absurd shops and stuff listed as "essential" they were dumb as hell. Such as? Food shops and essentials are all I remember. Do you live in Melbourne?
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Dec 18, 2021 13:02
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pumpinglemma posted:Do people in this thread even remember that long Covid exists? A ~10% chance of long-term disability even when double-vaxxed (and who knows what that will be for omicron) is not the same as “the odds are in your favour”, what the gently caress. Spare us the drama. Feeling tired and having a headache a couple of months after a virus is not a long term disability. Id be surprised if it turns out to be 1% actually suffer anything serious. 5 million people already with a new "long term disability" in the US already? Illuminti fucked around with this message at 13:09 on Dec 18, 2021 |
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Dec 18, 2021 13:07
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droll posted:Reading Australians complain about their "harshest lockdowns in the world lasting for 6 months" but enjoying more freedom between is wearing a bit thin given I've been in the same harsh lockdown for 18 months with no reprieve. Just because the US governments don't give a poo poo about us doesn't mean there aren't millions of us in self imposed lockdown. The only difference is going to the supermarket is even more risky for me. And the social and career consequences of not accepting the persistent gaslighting of a society trying to get you maimed or killed. Being called mentally ill and receiving hateful stares for wearing proper PPE. Being talked down to by people seeing themselves as very smart by repeating the talking points of the day, for trying to make them aware of the risks they are taking and the inevitable outcome. Having to yet again listen to the very same people loudly proclaiming time and again that "no one could have foreseen" the thing happening you told them would happen. Etc. It is basically much harder to conduct a self-imposed lockdown, while being actively (socially and financially) damaging and much riskier on a personal level. It really sucks 
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Dec 18, 2021 13:09
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pumpinglemma posted:Do people in this thread even remember that long Covid exists? A ~10% chance of long-term disability even when double-vaxxed (and who knows what that will be for omicron) is not the same as “the odds are in your favour”, what the gently caress. Long covid is a thing, but you're blowing it out of proportions. According to this article, there's about a 2.5% prevalence of some form of symptom or fatigue after 3 months. This is compared to the 0.5 percent in the general (uninfected population) And you'd imagine some of the former would be psychosomatic. Also, everything I found about it said that the prevalence of long covid is highly proportional to the initial disease intensity, which seems to be highly reduced with a vaccine. And while we can't possibly have data on it, there's no particular reason to assume that Omikron would suddenly behave radically different, to make the initial intensity and lethality is independent of possible long term effects. Those few, who have to use a respirator and survive will absolute face some longer term side effects, but long covid is not significantly worse, or probable than regular long term viral effects. The way you're describing it sounds as if one of ten people who get covid had to live on disability for the rest of their life, even if it was completely asymptomatic. The odds are most definitely in your favor. For some activities, it's just not worth rolling the dice in the first place. Unless there is some form of a mandated lockdown, that threshold is a subjective choice. cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 13:33 on Dec 18, 2021 |
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Dec 18, 2021 13:19
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Covid is a real disease. It can damage your body. Some people's bodies get so damaged they die. So finding people with long term injury is a real thing. But observable reality should really put the claim on hyperbolic claims like "10% of people are disabled", america alone has had 50 million cases. There isn't 5 million disabled people just coasting under the radar. There isn't 100 million disabled Indians that no one has noticed yet. People are harmed by covid are real. But every single person that takes more than 2 weeks to fully recover is not a "disabled person" or "maimed" by any definition anyone would use except to try to panic people.
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Dec 18, 2021 14:30
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You do realize we seem to describe a new aftereffect nearly on a weekly basis https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210419/SARS-CoV-2-nucleoprotein-can-trigger-ceb1-synuclein-amyloid-fibril-formation.aspx And frankly, given my knowledge of how the medical system behaves as a disabled person toward the disabled, I am disinclined to believe any report that downplays the rate of COVID sequelae.
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Dec 18, 2021 14:41
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Covid is a real disease. It can damage your body. Some people's bodies get so damaged they die. So finding people with long term injury is a real thing. On a societal level nobody gives a gently caress that ~1 million Americans have died, what makes you think they would care if 5 million have gotten maimed? - do you not grasp the sheer callousness of the society you call home?
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Dec 18, 2021 14:41
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Pingui posted:It is basically much harder to conduct a self-imposed lockdown, while being actively (socially and financially) damaging and much riskier on a personal level. It really sucks Agreed. And anyone suggesting that actually it's harder when your government seems to care a little more and actually enforces lockdowns and NPIs because you don't have a choice to brunch is ridiculous.
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Dec 18, 2021 14:42
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StratGoatCom posted:You do realize we seem to describe a new aftereffect nearly on a weekly basis Did the pre print from April that this news article from April you linked end up getting peer reviewed and what was the result? And do you have some more recent links about the last 10 new after effects that were found in the last 10 weeks?
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Dec 18, 2021 14:46
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Yeah, I'm with you guys on the self imposed lockdown. I've been essentially nowhere except the grocery store or the vet since March 2020. I am mentally totally loving fried. I am allowed to go do things like BJJ class or go to restaurants but I still refuse because it's unsafe. And people treat you like you have three heads.
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Dec 18, 2021 14:46
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droll posted:Did the pre print from April that this news article from April you linked end up getting peer reviewed and what was the result? It's called hyperbole, but given that mACE2 is fairly pervasive in a lot of systems and the sheer spread, we're probably gonna be finding new effects for years.
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Dec 18, 2021 14:56
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I really wish long covid wasn’t real and my health wasn’t complete trash still six months after the vent
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Dec 18, 2021 14:56
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droll posted:
I think a claim that a virus can cause lots of DIFFERENT problems is reasonable. A lot of viruses are like that. Where they cause the same symptom in a majority of people, cause a second and third set of symptoms in smaller groups then just go wild with every symptom you can imagine in specific individuals. Like 60% of americans harbor the herpes virus, in some fraction of those people it makes an occasional minor lip or genital rash. That is the normal presentation of the disease. Rarely it can cause brain inflammation or blindness. Those are rare presentations. Then past that, it's a rabbit hole where if you can name an organ there is someone that has had herpes involvement in that organ and it has presented in any possible way you could imagine. There is people who lost their pancreas to herpes. one in a million weird occurances. You can put pretty much any symptom you can imagine on the list of things pretty much any virus can do. What they commonly do is what matters.
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Dec 18, 2021 15:09
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StratGoatCom posted:It's called hyperbole Did you post the wrong link then? It was a news article from April about a pre print.
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Dec 18, 2021 15:13
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https://twitter.com/josh_wingrove/status/1472205037342535683 Lots more unvaccinated out there than was known. https://twitter.com/josh_wingrove/status/1472205047056457732 Thom12255 fucked around with this message at 15:28 on Dec 18, 2021 |
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Dec 18, 2021 15:26
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Unless you're still unvaccinated for medical reasons or immunocompromised, staying in your home for some 20+ months thinking you can just wait out the virus doesn't seem like a viable strategy for anyone at this point. Edit: Denmark has started reporting re-infections this week. Should be interesting. Rust Martialis fucked around with this message at 15:47 on Dec 18, 2021 |
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Dec 18, 2021 15:30
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Like, here is a link to a case where a flu virus just caused some woman to start CRYING BLOOD https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-18/vaccine-data-gaps-point-to-millions-more-in-u-s-who-lack-shots Viruses mostly have a particular presentation and then several more rare presentations, then just kinda wind off into infinity with "viruses do whatever the hell they want". Flu could exist for a million years and we would still be adding to things it "sometimes" can do. All viruses are like that. We are never going to finish naming every single thing any virus can possibly do. But that doesn't mean it commonly does each things. Remember the goon who got covid then had all their teeth fall out? That sounds absolutely horrible, but it apparently was never a common enough occurance to ever be picked up as an outcome for covid in the next million cases. He was just a guy with extremely sour luck apparently.
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Dec 18, 2021 15:35
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Like, here is a link to a case where a flu virus just caused some woman to start CRYING BLOOD I gotta say, you're consistently one of the more reasonable people around here.
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Dec 18, 2021 15:40
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Rust Martialis posted:Unless you're still unvaccinated for medical reasons or immunocompromised, staying in your home for some 20+ months thinking you can just wait out the virus doesn't seem like a viable strategy for anyone at this point. Is your strategy to repeatedly catch a virus with no tangible natural immunity benefits
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Dec 18, 2021 15:46
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Hashy posted:Is your strategy to repeatedly catch a virus with no tangible natural immunity benefits I think it's more, that as cases have gone up and down there wasn't a single period where case were low and people were double vaccinated that you might have gone outside or seen a few people? Like in July/August here in Toronto, there were days where there were something like 20-25 cases in a city of 3 million, most people were double vaxxed and what cases were popping up were 80% or something in the unvaxxed. Everyone gets staying inside when things are going up, but when I see posts like Hellblazer187s about not leaving the house for 20 months except for the vet and grocery store, I always wonder if you're not immunocompromised, there wasn't a single time in the last two years even post vaccination that it even felt okay to see a few friends with precautions? Even putting on masks and hanging outside? There's a spectrum between the Denny's suck and gently caress and literally never leaving your apartment for almost two years.
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Dec 18, 2021 15:59
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Hashy posted:Is your strategy to repeatedly catch a virus with no tangible natural immunity benefits Well, after recovering last December, and then being fully vaccinated in July, the risk of reinfection was frankly *miniscule* before omicron. I am now boosted as well but will be staying home (where possible) for a couple weeks until we see how omicron goes. Since my partner goes to work at a compounding pharmacy every weekday and regularly goes to sites to give vaccinations, at some point we'll probably both be exposed to omicron anyhow. I believe I have acted as a reasonably prudent person should in the circumstances I face here in Denmark.
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Dec 18, 2021 16:18
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Yeah, after I was infected in July and then after my second jab in August, I felt very comfortable doing daily activities like Cinema, football, gym even with a baseline covid infection rate. Less so now that Omicron has skyrocketed cases though.
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Dec 18, 2021 16:27
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Hashy posted:Is your strategy to repeatedly catch a virus with no tangible natural immunity benefits Those lewys aren't gonna body themselves!
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Dec 18, 2021 16:45
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