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My point on Sweden (etc) wasn't that we should have adopted their approach, it was that even in the absence of any lockdown measures, you still get distinct waves of the virus. That is literally all. I broadly agree that lockdown measures did reduce overall case figures, and were probably the right decision in the early days of the pandemic before mass vaccination. My argument is about now, in winter 2021, not about a year and a half ago.
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Dec 21, 2021 19:02
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Oh then I agree. This virus comes in waves. All the more reason we need a stormwall to protect us rather than a tosspot to screw us.
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Dec 21, 2021 19:05
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Peaks and troughs are always a feature of pandemics or epidemics. Infectious diseases always drop in summer, which is why normal flu is a winter thing. A lockdown doesn't change the shape of the graph, it changes the numbers involved. Even in Sweden, there were restrictions: people were advised to work from home, to keep socially distanced, and large gatherings were cancelled. Early on Sweden had one of the highest death rates in Europe and, as you say, the notable difference with other countries was that they didn't lock down. Edit: complacency is a huge factor too. Cases go down, people drop their guard, cases go up again. It's worse when there are no mandates in place, but even when there are people are more likely to decide that 'just this once' doesn't matter, whether that's wearing a mask in a shop or nipping round to see a friend despite restrictions. Lady Demelza fucked around with this message at 19:23 on Dec 21, 2021 |
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Dec 21, 2021 19:16
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ThomasPaine posted:My point on Sweden (etc) wasn't that we should have adopted their approach, it was that even in the absence of any lockdown measures, you still get distinct waves of the virus. Of course you get waves, it's a biological phenomenon. But you were actually arguing that "the waves we saw could easily have been the natural ebbs and flows of the pandemic", when in fact the different shape and timing of waves in different countries (inc Sweden) show the opposite.
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Dec 21, 2021 19:19
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ThomasPaine posted:Fine, explain Sweden? Explain any of the other countries that did next to nothing and still saw multiple distinct waves? One of the major sources of outbreaks of covid 19 is international travel, and most countries that enacted restrictions also restricted international travel, especially to and from countries taking little or no precautions. e: and also the better explanations posted above Tarnop fucked around with this message at 19:26 on Dec 21, 2021 |
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Dec 21, 2021 19:23
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Jakabite posted:I'm becoming increasingly doomer myself tbh, despite being one of the more 'anti-dooming' posters usually. It's kind of came with a dose of not giving a gently caress any more too. I suppose in a roundabout way, it'll be interesting to witness the fall of a technologically advanced civilisation, in the same way being vivisected is probably quite an interesting experience. I liked your little movie. I didn't think it was particularly noisy. The only thing, I kept looking for a cat on your bed and didn't see one. But then I guess it was a hotel.
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Dec 21, 2021 19:29
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Oh dear me posted:Of course you get waves, it's a biological phenomenon. But you were actually arguing that "the waves we saw could easily have been the natural ebbs and flows of the pandemic", when in fact the different shape and timing of waves in different countries (inc Sweden) show the opposite. Yeah, I probably should have phrased it 'the waves we saw probably paralleled the natural ebbs and flows of the pandemic' instead. But really, 'lockdown good last year, y/n' wasn't the discussion I was trying to have because we've done it to death and honestly, it's what we do now that matters.
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Dec 21, 2021 19:32
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Jakabite posted:I'm becoming increasingly doomer myself tbh, despite being one of the more 'anti-dooming' posters usually. It's kind of came with a dose of not giving a gently caress any more too. I suppose in a roundabout way, it'll be interesting to witness the fall of a technologically advanced civilisation, in the same way being vivisected is probably quite an interesting experience. I like the shots of the lift, and the reflections in the puddle. Is Gary Lineker going to star in the Netflix series adaptation?
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Dec 21, 2021 19:42
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ThomasPaine posted:it's what we do now that matters. Good news: nothing, we're doing nothing. Let's hope that having 52% of the population boosted and a potentially less severe variant dominant is enough.
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Dec 21, 2021 19:44
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Lady Demelza posted:Good news: nothing, we're doing nothing. Let's hope that having 52% of the population boosted and a potentially less severe variant dominant is enough. spoiler from three weeks in the future it wasn't
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Dec 21, 2021 19:54
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Lockdowns and the enforcement thereof are actually fascism, except when china does it in which case it's great.
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Dec 21, 2021 19:57
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kalleth posted:Oh god, I know I'm necroposting but it pisses me off how this photo is so obviously staged. Why? I mean, is it just because they don't actually ever do anything resembling work and are just faking it? to appear electable you must look political in the media and that can get you the coveted status of sensible adult in the room who is capable of not playing student politics and be considered a safe pair of hands and to do that you have to do the right kind of rites one of the rituals that developed is that the politican goes to where the work is being done and adopts some of the rote regalia of the work like a high-vis and a shovel/flak vest and a helmet/telephone and a coffee machine. this ritual only works if the media attend the ceremonies- the politician, sometimes posing with the elders of the sacred workplace with their ceremonial pristine clip boards- through the power of pretending to do a thing while mugging to the camera, generate vast political capital that image of her organising international cheese markets or whatever was curated deliberately, even down to the curly wired handset cord and it really doesn't matter if it's as obvious as a kid in nursery playing dress-up, because everyone of power and everyone reporting on it is heavily invested in the make-believe cargo cult politics for a slow lurching apocalypse also happy solstice goons
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Dec 21, 2021 20:01
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Anyone opposed to Covid restrictions is basically a eugenicist. That's my hard stance and I'm sticking to it.
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Dec 21, 2021 20:04
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I mean all discussion of its likely impact on viral transmission aside do you really think it is unreasonable to wonder whether authoritarian covid measures would be enforced equally and fairly across all demographics, and do you not think already marginalised groups might be justified in worrying that emergency legislation that hands further powers to the police, ostensibly in the name of public health, might, in practice, be used for less savoury ends?
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Dec 21, 2021 20:09
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I think "all discussion of the actual demonstrable ability for it to stop people dying aside" is doing a lot of work in that sentence and suggesting we just ignore that part because you don't want to look like you're arguing for people to die, is not something I am prepared to meet you halfway with. Because that is what you're doing, and multiple people have pointed out that's what you're doing, and when faced with evidence supported counterarguments you just go "oh well I don't want to talk about that part, can't we focus on the bit that I do want to talk about because it's much easier for me to not sound like a dickhead if you don't present the important counterarguments" OwlFancier fucked around with this message at 20:18 on Dec 21, 2021 |
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Dec 21, 2021 20:16
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I think there is something to the idea that while places where the state is expected to govern could manage a proper two week actual lockdown without using it as an excuse to be terrible, Britain could not, but that's more an argument against British governance than lockdowns.
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Dec 21, 2021 20:24
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Wales: From Monday - employees working from place of work instead of home unless essential £60 fine, employers not allowing WFH where possible £10k fine. And if you live in Wales but work in England, you can still be fined. It is now a LEGAL requirement not just advisory. https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2021-12-21/employees-across-wales-to-face-60-fine-if-they-are-not-working-from-home quote:Employees across Wales could face fines if they are working from their work place instead of at home "without good reason".
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Dec 21, 2021 20:41
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Seems a bit odd to bother with the individual fines, given that it's not really up to the staff?
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Dec 21, 2021 20:43
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OwlFancier posted:Seems a bit odd to bother with the individual fines, given that it's not really up to the staff? I think that's because there are some people who do prefer to go into their place of work rather than WFH whether because of lack of facilities at home or because they like chatting. Good job I told my boss earlier I was going in tomorrow (noone else in office) to pick up my work laptop 'just in case'.
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Dec 21, 2021 20:45
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OwlFancier posted:I think "all discussion of the actual demonstrable ability for it to stop people dying aside" is doing a lot of work in that sentence and suggesting we just ignore that part because you don't want to look like you're arguing for people to die, is not something I am prepared to meet you halfway with. Only there is zero evidence that a hard, criminally enforced lockdown would be superior to continued mitigating measures and positive reinforcement in a majority vaccinated population, especially when you factor in the other consequences that would imply. We're not in the same place we were last year by a long margin. Not locking down =/= doing nothing. I'm honestly quite surprised at your willingness to wholesale dismiss the potential dangers of authoritarian creep, especially given you're generally way more anarchist-leaning than I am, and are consistently skeptical of the British state, and any state, at almost every level. I'm more than happy to provide plenty of sources about the ways public health policy has been historically been used to legitimise very heinous things.
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Dec 21, 2021 20:46
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All this talk about whether lockdowns are good or not reminds me of this: The UK has had zero actual lockdowns (but even those half-lockdowns did help). Canada basically had one mostly good lockdown where people were paid. Now it's just half-arsing stuff, and if we (either in the UK or Canada) did an actual proper lockdown again, cases would plummet and we wouldn't need to half months or years more of this constant half-way, compromising-with-a-virus bullshit.
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Dec 21, 2021 20:48
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I'm not taking your argument seriously because you're entirely inconsistent in when you apply it, it is because I don't think you are seriously bothered about "authoritarian creep" that I don't see the point in engaging in what has every appearance of being just a way to weasel your own personal dislike of covid restrictions into conversation by adopting rhetoric that you think your audience will be sympathetic to, which is why you keep trying to brush over any of the counterarguments that you think are effective and reframe the conversation back to areas where you can employ that rhetoric. It gives me exactly the same impression as the rest of the "free speech" idiots who are framing being told to engage in the mildest amount of socially responsible behaviour as their own personal holocaust.
OwlFancier fucked around with this message at 20:54 on Dec 21, 2021 |
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Dec 21, 2021 20:51
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WhatEvil posted:All this talk about whether lockdowns are good or not reminds me of this: what nation dance this is pls?
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Dec 21, 2021 20:56
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WhatEvil posted:All this talk about whether lockdowns are good or not reminds me of this: And critically, even just using the word "lockdown" significantly improved the effectiveness of previous restrictions, because people are capable of telling when the government is genuinely worried vs when they're trying to weasel their way back to let 'er rip.
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Dec 21, 2021 21:00
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OwlFancier posted:I'm not taking your argument seriously because you're entirely inconsistent in when you apply it, it is because I don't think you are seriously bothered about "authoritarian creep" that I don't see the point in engaging in what has every appearance of being just a way to weasel your own personal dislike of covid restrictions into conversation by adopting rhetoric that you think your audience will be sympathetic to, which is why you keep trying to brush over any of the counterarguments that you think are effective and reframe the conversation back to areas where you can employ that rhetoric. It gives me exactly the same impression as the rest of the "free speech" idiots who are framing being told to engage in the mildest amount of socially responsible behaviour as their own personal holocaust. This isn't a zero sum game. I'm more comfortable than you with authoritarian state structures assuming they are not governed by the bourgeoisie. The British state is very much that. I've also been consistently opposed to authoritarianism in healthcare throughout my life, and even wrote a loving PhD thesis on the bloody topic so please don't come at me like I've cynically changed tack out of nowhere to massage an argument. If you go back and read what I said, you'll also see that I've never opposed lockdown measures for the sake of it. I phrased one passage poorly and people have seized on that while ignoring my bigger point about long term strategy. As short term emergency responses to unprecedented national crises they are sometimes necessary, as they were last year. What I am pushing back against is the idea that they can possibly be a sustainable solution to a disease that is quite clearly going nowhere, because they involve substantial sacrifices that can often also be addressed through other methods, while also relying on the monopoly on violence held by the loving Tory party to function. If you think that's an irrelevant point or you don't care about the implications, fair play to you, but say it with your whole chest. And this is absolutely a matter for discussion. You're allowed to disagree. I might be wrong, I might change my mind. I'm not going to call anyone a moron, and I ackowlege we all have different anxieties and subjective values. A little assumption of good faith would not go amiss. This is clearly a nuanced issue that and simplistic 'x is inherently right/wrong' takes are counterproductive. ThomasPaine fucked around with this message at 22:12 on Dec 21, 2021 |
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Dec 21, 2021 21:47
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ThomasPaine posted:This isn't a zero sum game. I'm more comfortable than you with authoritarian state structures assuming they are not governed by the bourgeoisie. The British state is very much that. I've also been consistently opposed to authoritarianism in healthcare throughout my life, and even wrote a loving PhD thesis on the bloody topic so please don't come at me like I've cynically changed tack out of nowhere to massage an argument. 
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Dec 21, 2021 21:53
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OwlFancier posted:I'm not taking your argument seriously because you're entirely inconsistent in when you apply it, it is because I don't think you are seriously bothered about "authoritarian creep" that I don't see the point in engaging in what has every appearance of being just a way to weasel your own personal dislike of covid restrictions into conversation by adopting rhetoric that you think your audience will be sympathetic to, which is why you keep trying to brush over any of the counterarguments that you think are effective and reframe the conversation back to areas where you can employ that rhetoric. It gives me exactly the same impression as the rest of the "free speech" idiots who are framing being told to engage in the mildest amount of socially responsible behaviour as their own personal holocaust. I tried to come up with a diplomatic way of saying this for about half an hour
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Dec 21, 2021 21:55
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The stats for deaths from Coronoavirus on the Guardian page has this in the graph descriptionquote:People who have died within 28 days of their first positive test for coronavirus Does this mean that people who have caught the virus for a 2nd time and who have a positive test registered from the 1st wont be included in the stats?
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Dec 21, 2021 22:38
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fuctifino posted:The stats for deaths from Coronoavirus on the Guardian page has this in the graph description Protocol is not to re-test once you've had a positive result. They're probably doing a reverse search from date of death. Death -> Any positive test in last 28 days?
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Dec 21, 2021 22:53
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fuctifino posted:The stats for deaths from Coronoavirus on the Guardian page has this in the graph description yeah people caught that but as far as i know no ones got confirmation either way so... uh... either not many are dying or an unknown amount are every day  i love normal island
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Dec 21, 2021 23:07
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fuctifino posted:The stats for deaths from Coronoavirus on the Guardian page has this in the graph description No, they reset the counter after... 90 days, I want to say? Some amount of time anyway. The "deaths after 28 days" measure was never designed to be an actual definitive way of counting deaths anyway, just a useful indicator because it includes deaths for any reason within those 28 days (remember all those "They're counting car crashes as covid deaths" talking points from last year?). As long as you assume the amount of non-covid deaths is relatively constant it's a useful proxy indicator of how bad things are going without having to wait the week or two it normally takes for actual death certificates to make their way through the system. e: If anything the "deaths after 28 days" is probably *over* counting compared to last year because a lot less people are ending up in hospital thanks to the vaccines, and so are dying from trying to catch road runners with rocket-powered roller skates than they were last year.
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Dec 21, 2021 23:36
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Thanks for the explanation re: the stats. In other normal island news: https://twitter.com/PeterStefanovi2/status/1473391905287376909
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Dec 21, 2021 23:43
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The other good (really not good) reason for "death after test" existing as a stat is that legally only a doctor or coroner can record a cause of death, whereas a simple database search (who are we kidding, it'll be someone scrolling through a spreadsheet) can count to 28. In even a bad flu season doctors can get seriously behind on signing death certificates because obviously they've got other things to be doing, so for a pandemic you see some people going days without getting one (this was a serious issue in the first wave, especially for people with religious reasons for wanting a quick burial).
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Dec 21, 2021 23:56
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I didn't think re-infections had been counted in the various different case statistics for a while, so it wouldn't surprise me that deaths would be treated similarly. People who get het up about the 28 day thing generally don't understand how death statistics work. They're alwyas educated guesses. They don't test every single one of the thousands of people who die of flu in normal years, so whilst they're broadly accurate, they will be errors. Except in most years, nobody cares if your 85 year old flu patient actually died of a massive stroke in their sleep, because it's not a political hot potato. Same with co-moribidities, they raise the risk of death of everything, from illnesses to accidents to surgery. This has only become a source of contention with Covid, because apparently the medical community are conspiring to blame everything on Covid.
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Dec 22, 2021 00:00
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more like cressida KNOB lol 
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Dec 22, 2021 00:02
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The Perfect Element posted:It's definitely harder now that I'm a parent, and difficult to be so blasé about my own daughters place in the universe, but I try. Honestly I find it easier. The world's hosed, so we just have storytime & singsongs & play with Comrade Octopus. poo poo's fun, nothing's more important than that. gently caress the world, talk in silly voices all day long. goddamnedtwisto posted:The "deaths after 28 days" measure was never designed to be an actual definitive way of counting deaths anyway, just a useful indicator because it includes deaths for any reason within those 28 days (remember all those "They're counting car crashes as covid deaths" talking points from last year?)
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Dec 22, 2021 00:04
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https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/dec/21/man-accused-of-chris-whitty-assault-contests-charges-in-dressing-gownquote:Chew, who denies common assault, appeared at Westminster magistrates court on Tuesday via video link from his bedroom in a dressing gown which slipped down to reveal his bare chest. His lawyer Peter Fallen told the court he had tested positive for coronavirus. sounds like it's going pretty well
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Dec 22, 2021 00:28
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i know the law i watched at least half of a repeat of rumpole of the bailey one night when i came home from the pub 20 years ago!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Dec 22, 2021 00:40
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Just waiting for him to quote the US constitution now
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Dec 22, 2021 00:48
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quote:"Me, Mr Jonathan Chew, doesn’t want to be represented,” he said I love how much this implies about the sort of wingnut he is and the bullshit his lawyer had to stop him doing.
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Dec 22, 2021 00:49
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