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Laserface posted:John C. Riley but i can see how you got there. Talladega Nights is kind of well liked, for whatever reason, but it's always seemed weird to me
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Dec 21, 2021 09:24
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https://twitter.com/theage/status/1473173339506102275 Correct me if I'm wrong but would this not be a higher per capita case rate than basically anywhere in the world has ever experienced? In one of the most vaccinated places on earth? The UK has 2.5 times our population and is hitting 90,000 cases a day.
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Dec 21, 2021 09:43
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freebooter posted:https://twitter.com/theage/status/1473173339506102275 It's just more early modelling with worst case scenarios that are extremely unlikely
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Dec 21, 2021 09:50
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The fact that people are themselves already avoiding social events because of high case numbers and Omicron fears suggests to me that you'll never actually hit such a high level because even if the government does nothing, people will. Like how we'll never actually hit 6 degrees of global warming because hitting 4 will make industrialised society collapse.
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Dec 21, 2021 09:59
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freebooter posted:The fact that people are themselves already avoiding social events because of high case numbers and Omicron fears suggests to me that you'll never actually hit such a high level because even if the government does nothing, people will. Like how we'll never actually hit 6 degrees of global warming because hitting 4 will make industrialised society collapse. Depends on how many people do. Even though there's few cases near us in QLD, I know my family is having discussions about what to do for Christmas and talking just a Skype meet up or what ever, but there are others that I know who are trying to find out if there are any large parties going on for new years.
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Dec 21, 2021 10:22
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freebooter posted:https://twitter.com/theage/status/1473173339506102275 Just not possible to gt that kind of infection rate. Sure bit of putting the wind up people is fine but there's a point where you just go "Oh come on, that's just bullshit"
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Dec 21, 2021 11:29
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:Just not possible to gt that kind of infection rate. Sure bit of putting the wind up people is fine but there's a point where you just go "Oh come on, that's just bullshit" What do you think is the maximum possible daily rate?
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Dec 21, 2021 11:55
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:Just not possible to gt that kind of infection rate. Sure bit of putting the wind up people is fine but there's a point where you just go "Oh come on, that's just bullshit" Agree. The height of the US cases has been over 300,000 and that's with a population over 330 million. A total of 200,000 infected by end of January? That's a bit more believable. Today has also shown that testing in NSW and other states like SA are really struggling to keep up with the monstrous surge in demand. At least in one lab, 20% of people getting tested don't have symptoms and are only doing it to satisfy the travel rules for QLD, SA, NT and Tas to enter. There's shortage of testing swabs available and shutting collection centres early for staff safety in the heat. This is really stupid when you want close contacts and infected people with symptoms to get tested as quickly as possible, but instead are waiting up to 4 hours in line in 30+ degree heat to be tested and waiting 5 days for a result. We've had similar numbers before - but each state bar WA have extremely high test numbers that they can't offload the excess to each other - people on Twitter have reported that their samples collected by Laverty have apparently been outsourced to WorkSafe Laboratories,- who mostly perform workplace drug and alcohol testing. As far as I'm aware - this has not been done before. The people who are sick and the people working in the path lab industry deserve better.
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Dec 21, 2021 12:06
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tbf an economy driven by homebrand meth is probably a lot healthier than the status quo
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Dec 21, 2021 12:25
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Putrid Dog posted:Agree. The CDC estimates that only 1 in 4 cases have been reported in the USA: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html That suggests the peak of US infections could have sat around 1,200,000 a day. That would be equivalent to 100,000 a day in Australia. With a much more infectious variant, minimal boosters, a population concentrated around a few urban centers, and a "gently caress it, let it rip" national policy it's not impossible that at a maximum we could double that.
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Dec 21, 2021 13:00
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freebooter posted:https://twitter.com/theage/status/1473173339506102275 When there's a Covid surge on even in rich countries there's a large difference between modelled/actual Covid case numbers and confirmed Covid case numbers because contact tracing isn't functioning and testing is difficult to access. The majority of asymptomatic and a lot of mild cases don't get captured because people aren't tested. The UK might be over 200k actual cases a day right now. 200k modelled cases per day for Australia is very high, that is 0.8% of the population per day, but we know from serology testing that that is roughly how fast Covid went through populations with no immunity in places with limited restrictions like India and South Africa during the peak of their Delta waves. If we don't get boosters rolled out soon or bring in significant restrictions it's possible it could happen that fast here. Probably not this summer because of the weather, but definitely next winter if there's a follow up variant as bad as Omicron.
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Dec 21, 2021 13:19
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freebooter posted:The fact that people are themselves already avoiding social events because of high case numbers and Omicron fears suggests to me that you'll never actually hit such a high level because even if the government does nothing, people will. Like how we'll never actually hit 6 degrees of global warming because hitting 4 will make industrialised society collapse. You are so loving stupid.
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Dec 21, 2021 13:32
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The invisible hand of the free pandemic will save us.
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Dec 21, 2021 13:44
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Love how any discussion started using actual expert modelling is immediately followed by random internet posters crashing in to say they understand it better. "The sheep all say this pandemic is going to get worse. In this moment I am euphoric because I know that actually..."
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Dec 21, 2021 14:00
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Animal Friend posted:Love how any discussion started using actual expert modelling is immediately followed by random internet posters crashing in to say they understand it better. Sorry but "well the experts say" became obsolete around the same time the experts' own opinions started clashing and we now get average punters arguing over whether the Burnet or Doherty institute has more reliable modelling as though any of us actually has a loving clue. I don't know whether cases will hit 200,000 a day nationwide. If Omicron really is way more infectious than who knows. I do know that we aren't going to see numbers like that unless we first see e.g. the UK hit 500,000 a day, which would be 5x what they're currently recording, and they're in winter not summer. Senor Tron posted:The CDC estimates that only 1 in 4 cases have been reported in the USA: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html Most unrecorded American infections occurred before widespread testing was available, a good chunk of American infections occurred before vaccination was available, at least a third of America is unvaccinated even now, and we don't really have a "let her rip" policy at the national level let alone most state levels.
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Dec 21, 2021 14:33
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there's no link between temperature/humidity and covid transmission lol
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Dec 21, 2021 14:36
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Having said that I just checked the Doherty modelling from back around August which everyone pooh poohed as unrealistic and they predicted, with 80% adult vaccination (which we obviously got higher than) 275,918 "symptomatic infections" and 980 deaths over the following six months, nationwide. Which breaks down to about 1,530 cases a day and 5 deaths a day, which if anything now seems optimistic.Hashy posted:there's no link between temperature/humidity and covid transmission lol It was annoying as hell when Americans or Brits looked at us crushing the 2020 wave and responded with "because it's summer lol" but when your society is absolutely riddled with COVID (as ours will be) then the seasons do matter, like they do with all respiratory diseases, because it affects whether people are socialising indoors or outdoors.
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Dec 21, 2021 14:50
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freebooter posted:
Cool, but in an unboosted population vaccination doesn't do much for Omicron numbers, and that US peak was actually around 12 months ago when testing was very available. Nationally what do you call a policy where contact tracking has collapsed and restrictions are basically non existent? What is the practical difference between that and let her rip?
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Dec 21, 2021 15:08
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You can just visualise a group of these fuckers oily with sweat trying to understand how human beings think - and loving it up again.
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Dec 21, 2021 15:10
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It's legal to call 911 on accident
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Dec 21, 2021 15:20
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Senor Tron posted:Nationally what do you call a policy where contact tracking has collapsed and restrictions are basically non existent? What is the practical difference between that and let her rip? I'm going to assume from this post that you're either in NSW or you're in one of the COVID-zero states and are consuming Sydney-centric media and assuming that this whole country is going to behave like NSW. Restrictions aren't non-existent: you need to wear a mask indoors in most of the country, you need to show proof of vaccination to do much of anything in most of the country, you need to QR check-in in most of the country. Contact tracing has not collapsed in most of the country; I know several people here in Victoria who recently had to self-isolate and get tested because they were at contact sites (and I know many more people who are skipping social events over the next few days so they don't get infected or pinged before Christmas). None of the currently COVID-zero states are going to be any less stringent, not even the Liberal-governed ones. "Let her rip" is America where half the government is culture warring against vaccines. This ain't that.
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Dec 21, 2021 15:29
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freebooter posted:I'm going to assume from this post that you're either in NSW or you're in one of the COVID-zero states and are consuming Sydney-centric media and assuming that this whole country is going to behave like NSW. I see the problem, you seem to be posting from 3 months ago.
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Dec 21, 2021 15:33
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Senor Tron posted:What do you think is the maximum possible daily rate? Some mid five digit number that's a hell of a lot more possible than an asspull.
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Dec 21, 2021 21:36
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Someone with stones in the state government needs to come out and just make masks in indoor public spaces a law so we can finally get past the "we gotta get back to normal!!" rhetoric
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Dec 21, 2021 22:58
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3763  Just trying to avoid the spicy cough before my booster tomorrow
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Dec 21, 2021 23:20
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lets not fight about what numbers are or aren't possible and just be assured that the circuit breaker lockdown NSW has to pull when the hospitals have demonstrably failed will be infinitely more damaging to the economy and our collective psyche than masking/contact tracing/minor restrictions ever could be
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Dec 21, 2021 23:28
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Senor Tron posted:I see the problem, you seem to be posting from 3 months ago. Which part of what I said was inaccurate for the majority of Australians, who don't live in NSW?
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Dec 21, 2021 23:54
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Im hoping the sheer number of people I'm seeing completely ignoring check in codes in Qld is confirmation bias or something personally because it's a lot.
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Dec 21, 2021 23:56
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masking is maybe 10% in regional NSW, including staff of major chains. i went into the RTA to renew my Working with children Check and the staff retrieved their little surgical masks from their desks when they saw me with a KF95. QR codes are still on the entrances of about 1 in 2 businesses
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Dec 22, 2021 00:05
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https://www.health.gov.au/news/covid-19-omicron-update-from-cmo-professor-paul-kelly-0quote:Recent modelling, both in Australia and internationally, presents a range of potential scenarios as a result of the Omicron variant. While modelling is an important tool to help guide decision-making, it is just one of a range of tools and cannot be viewed in isolation. Modelling helps to prepare for all scenarios and to mitigate the risk associated with the pandemic. Headline on all Australian news sites: SCARY NUMBER WENT UP
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Dec 22, 2021 00:16
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Got my moderna booster today, nearly no queue and plenty of bookings at Olympic Park.
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Dec 22, 2021 00:25
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quote:A preliminary scenario, of many being considered to help inform decision making, presents one of the worst case of all potential scenarios including assumptions that the Omicron variant is as severe as the Delta variant, an absence of hospital surge capacity, a highly limited booster program, no change to baseline public health and social measures and an absence of spontaneous behaviour change in the face of rising case numbers. This was what I meant by how even if the government does nothing, people will. Not all of them obviously because there's a large number of people who no longer give a gently caress, but there's also a large number of people who are going to give the pub or the restaurant or the movies a miss for a bit if we're getting anywhere near 6-figure daily case rates, and that in itself will have an impact.
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Dec 22, 2021 00:30
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Seemlar posted:However, early indications around hospitalisation, ICU admission and death show that Omicron could be far less than Delta and other variants. Importantly, after almost four weeks of Omicron in Australia there are currently no confirmed Omicron cases in ICU and no deaths confirmed to date. As NSW is refusing to do a reasonable amount of variant sequencing or release SGTF results and there aren't that many Omicron cases outside NSW yet this piece of good news is likely going to be true for weeks regardless of how virulent Omicron is.
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Dec 22, 2021 00:39
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freebooter posted:The fact that people are themselves already avoiding social events because of high case numbers and Omicron fears suggests to me that you'll never actually hit such a high level because even if the government does nothing, people will. Like how we'll never actually hit 6 degrees of global warming because hitting 4 will make industrialised society collapse. My partner and a friend's Christmas parties have been cancelled this week. I've also pulled the pin on Christmas lunch at a restaurant.
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Dec 22, 2021 00:45
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slorb posted:As NSW is refusing to do a reasonable amount of variant sequencing or release SGTF results and there aren't that many Omicron cases outside NSW yet this piece of good news is likely going to be true for weeks regardless of how virulent Omicron is. They're not refusing. It's just likely not possible with the amount of positives coming in. PCR tests are usually done 96 samples at a time and takes about an hour and a half to do. 150,000 tests just for screening for days on end with the highest amount of positives and you'll need to cherry pick the positive ones for sequencing. There's other ways of detecting omicron such as mutation detection assays, such as the mentioned S-Gene target failure, but again it's likely all instruments are tied up running covid screening, not to mention private labs won't find the economic benefit of providing that service in the first place -which they'll send off to a hospital or reference lab which delays reporting. Additionally, SGTF doesn't account for the Stealth omicron that was found in QLD and it can occur in small percentage of delta too. P681R or N501Y detection would be more indicative if it's delta or omicron. It isn't the labs fault in any of this. They are trying to keep their heads above the water at this point.
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Dec 22, 2021 01:10
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Part of AUKUS is that we're gonna get a nuclear weapon for the first time to point at China for America Reading about Australia begging for nukes when the British and Americans were doing a lot of test nukes in South Australia is pretty funny The Peccadillo fucked around with this message at 01:20 on Dec 22, 2021 |
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Dec 22, 2021 01:13
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Putrid Dog posted:They're not refusing. It's just likely not possible with the amount of positives coming in. I realise sequencing is a lot of work and I'm not blaming the labs, I think they've been told by NSW Health that sequencing is not a priority for political reasons and this is the natural result. As you note SGTF has real problems, but we need some kind of indication of Omicron spread. The issue I have is just how low a priority Omicron detection currently is in NSW when you compare it to two jurisdictions that actually give a poo poo. See attached screenshot.
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Dec 22, 2021 01:24
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Fingers crossed Omicron doesn't have an appreciable effect on our already hosed health system but it's already greatly impacting testing. My mother-in-law is going through knee reconstruction rehab and needs a negative test every time she goes to the hospital, twice a week. With testing being the shitshow that it is, that's most of her time spent queuing or in iso waiting for results. The greatly increased demand for testing is going to have negative knock on effects and the feds should get those rapid tests, make them free and send them out.
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Dec 22, 2021 01:25
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GPs in New South Wales have been left scrambling less than a week before Christmas after the state health department told them they will now be responsible for the management of Covid patients in the community. On Friday NSW Health informed GPs through the state’s 10 primary health networks that there is a new state-wide approach for the management of low-risk Covid-positive patients, effective immediately. It came as NSW hit another Covid record on Wednesday, reporting 3,763 new cases. “We were told the week before Christmas, when already many staff are already on leave, with no planning and no protocols in place,” she said. “An urgent meeting is being held so we can be informed how the hell we are supposed to manage this.”
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Dec 22, 2021 02:04
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Dec 22, 2021 02:13
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