COVID-19: People on the internet are judging me for going outside. It used to be the reverse.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > COVID-19: People on the internet are judging me for going outside. It used to be the reverse.

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Which horse film is your favorite? This poll is closed.
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Mr. Hands	54	28.72%
Total:	188 votes

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Weasling Weasel: Oct 20, 2010

Yes, but the UK study today draws the conclusions from the sata that its probably about 10-30% less likely to cause severe disease than Delta, even after accounting for higher vaccination status/previous infections.

# ? Dec 22, 2021 23:36

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# ? May 23, 2024 12:59

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

Mr Cuddles posted:

(I really struggle with data and have to have it explained to me tbh)

You should know that, by being aware of this, you are probably better with data than a majority of people.

# ? Dec 22, 2021 23:37

freebooter: Jul 7, 2009

Weasling Weasel posted:

Yes, but the UK study today draws the conclusions from the sata that its probably about 10-30% less likely to cause severe disease than Delta, even after accounting for higher vaccination status/previous infections.

This thread from the FT's COVID data guy does a good job of summarising this for people who don't feel like wading through studies:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1473772679425581069

edit - also, considering this:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1473772706797662215

...it will be interesting to keep an eye on New South Wales, which just blasted past 5,000 cases today. (This guy meant CHR where he wrote CFR).

https://twitter.com/andrewlilley_au/status/1473098204036091912

freebooter fucked around with this message at 00:07 on Dec 23, 2021

# ? Dec 22, 2021 23:55

Mr Cuddles: Jan 29, 2010; Do not believe in anything simply because you have heard it. Do not believe in anything simply because it is spoken and rumored by many. Do not believe in anything because it is found written in your religious books. Do not believe in anything merely on the authority of your teachers and elders.

Mellow Seas posted:

You should know that, by being aware of this, you are probably better with data than a majority of people.

That's a nice thing to say. I have always strongly believed that being aware of what you don't know is in general a healthy sign.

Thanks for the clarification fellow forum posters.

# ? Dec 22, 2021 23:56

abelwingnut: Dec 23, 2002

Mellow Seas posted:

You should know that, by being aware of this, you are probably better with data than a majority of people.

not only just people at large, but data people too.

# ? Dec 23, 2021 00:32

Petey: Nov 26, 2005; For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

Novavax Omicron booster data out: https://ir.novavax.com/2021-12-22-N...lescent-Studies

Some slides in this thread.

Really want to see the full pre-print data for the phase 2. The press release looks really good, but I'd expect it to.

e: found rest of slides https://ir.novavax.com/download/2021-12-22-6-month-w-Omicron-P19-FINAL.pdf

Petey fucked around with this message at 01:01 on Dec 23, 2021

# ? Dec 23, 2021 00:40

Judakel: Jul 29, 2004; Can't post for 9 years!

A curious amount of excess deaths in South Africa:

Kylaer posted:

So it appears that the South Africa excess death reports have been updated and I don't believe it's been posted here yet.

If I'm reading the graph right, for the week of December 5th through 11th, there were 1501 excess deaths over the expected amount, of which 151 were attributed to covid.

For the week of December 12th through 18th, there were 2602 excess deaths, of which 229 were attributed to covid.

Gauteng's excess deaths were 616 (104 attributed to covid) for the 12th-18th versus 235 (65 attributed to covid) for the week before.

So it sounds like a ~~whole lot~~ very mild number of people are dying, probably of covid, but who haven't been tested for covid.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? Dec 23, 2021 00:52

Charles 2 of Spain: Nov 7, 2017

That isn't all that surprising

Charles 2 of Spain fucked around with this message at 01:22 on Dec 23, 2021

# ? Dec 23, 2021 01:11

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

The conservative area i live in has so many people trying to get booster shots rn that you either have to drive 30 miles or make an appointment in mid january or go to one of the walk-in booster clinics that just opened here.

# ? Dec 23, 2021 01:17

Stickman: Feb 1, 2004

Jarmak posted:

Not really; only the booster data doesn't have comically large error bars. The 25+ AZ primary column's error bars range from ~+35% to ~-35%. Likewise the 25+ Ph primary shows us that we can confidently say it helps a lot, or not at all.

It�s sufficient to show that 1) protection against Omicron is less than protection against Delta, and 2) Boosters provide a significant increase in protection (though still less than against Delta). That�s as good as you can expect from preliminary data, and it�s still useful to know.

# ? Dec 23, 2021 03:01

Owlofcreamcheese: May 22, 2005; Can't post for 9 years!; Buglord

Judakel posted:

A curious amount of excess deaths in South Africa:

Remember the secret Chinese cremations and cell phone data?

# ? Dec 23, 2021 03:18

Owlofcreamcheese: May 22, 2005; Can't post for 9 years!; Buglord

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/stacks-of-urns-in-wuhan-prompt-new-questions-of-virus-s-toll

# ? Dec 23, 2021 04:24

VitalSigns: Sep 3, 2011

Are you suggesting that South Africa is faking its excess death numbers

Why would they do that.

# ? Dec 23, 2021 05:01

Alctel: Jan 16, 2004; I love snails

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

Also lol at the one guy who went to the famous omicron party and just got delta somehow.

He probably showed up with Delta tbh

# ? Dec 23, 2021 05:20

StratGoatCom: Aug 6, 2019; Our security is guaranteed by being able to melt the eyeballs of any other forum's denizens at 15 minutes notice

Comedy option, he got both and is spawning a recombinant variant.

# ? Dec 23, 2021 06:09

EngineerJoe: Aug 8, 2004; -=whore=-

There's obviously recombinant delta/omicron hybrids being generated. These aren't rare events but the bar is very high with omicron and a recombinant version would have to be more fit in some way.

# ? Dec 23, 2021 06:21

Judakel: Jul 29, 2004; Can't post for 9 years!

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

Remember the secret Chinese cremations and cell phone data?

Yes, those were kook theories and this is data on excess deaths.

# ? Dec 23, 2021 14:25

Covok: May 27, 2013; Yet where is that woman now? Tell me, in what heave does she reside? None of them. Because no God bothered to listen or care. If that is what you think it means to be a God, then you and all your teachings are welcome to do as that poor women did. And vanish from these realms forever.

Hey, quick question, can anyone help me here? My parents are freaking out and don't want to go to the test because the voucher on their ticket says it takes 3 to 5 days for results. I set up a RT-PCR test in NYC. I did also find a cheap rapid at-home test we could use but there is no reason, in my mind, not to just do both? Especially since they plan to go to a holiday part tomorrow. Anyone ever use a mobile testing site for RT-PCR? How long do you have to wait for results?

# ? Dec 23, 2021 16:20

Owlofcreamcheese: May 22, 2005; Can't post for 9 years!; Buglord

Judakel posted:

Yes, those were kook theories and this is data on excess deaths.

Is there a kooky theory you'd like to present here? Looks like deaths went up 10% in the time period reported cases went up 3800% The "whole lot of mild deaths" thing seems to indicate you found some information that changes the idea omicron is causing less deaths. It doesn't seem like there is any point where south africa was claiming they caught every single death. And I don't think anyone has ever claimed that omicron never kills anyone.

# ? Dec 23, 2021 16:38

I AM GRANDO: Aug 20, 2006

It�s not unusual for deaths from other causes to go up in Covid times. People put off getting things checked out or don�t go out, or can�t get in to a hospital. I haven�t seen a dentist in two years.

# ? Dec 23, 2021 17:05

Owlofcreamcheese: May 22, 2005; Can't post for 9 years!; Buglord

Antifa Turkeesian posted:

It�s not unusual for deaths from other causes to go up in Covid times. People put off getting things checked out or don�t go out, or can�t get in to a hospital. I haven�t seen a dentist in two years.

I mean, I do imagine many of those deaths are just covid deaths. But it doesn't seem like there is MORE death being missed now than at any other time. Like it seems like "not 100% of covid deaths are immediately caught" being consistently true. Instead of something like "heh, mild deaths, am i rite? turns out they just covered em up!". It seems like excess death has been consistently several times higher than deaths reported on the day. Seems still true. Like excess deaths doubled and total deaths went up 10% from a month ago. That sounds about right.

# ? Dec 23, 2021 17:24

CottonWolf: Jul 20, 2012; Good ideas generator

freebooter posted:

edit - also, considering this:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1473772706797662215

This is key. The Imperial study showed that, if you define hospitalisation in a specific way, and account for the reinfections, you can conclude that Omicron is as bad as Delta. Most comparisons didn�t show that extreme a change, but correcting for reinfections always pushed Omicron and Delta closer together.

# ? Dec 23, 2021 17:27

Judakel: Jul 29, 2004; Can't post for 9 years!

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

Is there a kooky theory you'd like to present here? Looks like deaths went up 10% in the time period reported cases went up 3800% The "whole lot of mild deaths" thing seems to indicate you found some information that changes the idea omicron is causing less deaths. It doesn't seem like there is any point where south africa was claiming they caught every single death. And I don't think anyone has ever claimed that omicron never kills anyone.

No kooky theory, just the most likely theory for excess deaths of that magnitude. Omicron kills a whole lotta people.

# ? Dec 23, 2021 17:35

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

Cross posted from CE. :smith:

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

More than half of Americans still somehow know literally nothing about Covid and roughly 1/3 of Americans say they stopped adjusting their behavior because of the pandemic OVER A YEAR AGO with no plans to ever stop - regardless of what happens.

People also think local businesses opening up, providing wipes, and setting up plexiglass have done more to reduce the spread of Covid than any other group.

They also slightly support employer mandates for vaccines, but only 14% think that people who don't follow the mandate should be fired.

quote:
Knowledge of relative risk factors once vaccinated is low.

Just over 1-in-4 Americans correctly identify a vaccinated 80-year-old is at greater risk of dying of COVID-19 than an unvaccinated 30-year-old.

40% of Americans aren't sure or believe the statement "an unvaccinated person is at least 10 times more likely to die of COVID-19 than a vaccinated person" to be false.

quote:
When asked who has been the best at reducing the spread of COVID-19, local businesses get the most credit, with eight in ten Americans saying they have done a good job. The local community and schools are seen as doing the next best with 72% and 71% indicating they have done a good job, respectively.

quote:
Americans are associating social activities as lower risk, with levels approaching the pre-Delta lows last seen in June. Six-in-ten find gathering in-person with friends and family (61%), dining in a restaurant (59%), and shopping at retail stores (63%) as low or no risk activities.

quote:
Nearly one in three (30%) who plan to see friends or family from outside their household are seeing someone who is unvaccinated during Thanksgiving. Another one in five (20%) will be with someone who is considered high risk for contracting COVID-19.

quote:
And 30% of the unvaccinated who said they occasionally or never wear masks said they had tested positive.

43% of the unvaccinated say they would continue to live their lives normally and not tell anyone if they were diagnosed with COVID-19.

quote:
Only 14% of the unvaccinated say it is even remotely possible for the government to change their minds. 86% say nothing will.

quote:
Two thirds (67%) of unvaccinated Americans say the discovery of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus makes no difference in whether they get vaccinated.

quote:
73% of the unvaccinated said they had returned to a pre-pandemic personal routine more than one year ago.

quote:
Most Americans also continue to support requiring federal employees, businesses with 100 employees or more, and their own employer enacting vaccine requirements.

quote:
However, just 14% say employees who defy or break the rule requiring staff to be vaccinated or undergo regular testing should be fired. Another 22% believe they should be placed on unpaid leave. On the other end, 29% say nothing should happen to them.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/year-in-review-with-the-pandemic
https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/axios-ipsos-coronavirus-index

# ? Dec 23, 2021 17:37

VitalSigns: Sep 3, 2011

Excess deaths with omicron

# ? Dec 23, 2021 17:48

Professor Beetus: Apr 12, 2007; They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

VitalSigns posted:

Excess deaths with omicron

Who are you talking to? Do you have something you'd like to say or are you here just to make snide drive-by shitposts? I ask this because I know you can and do post better in other threads.

# ? Dec 23, 2021 18:08

VitalSigns: Sep 3, 2011

Professor Beetus posted:

Who are you talking to? Do you have something you'd like to say or are you here just to make snide drive-by shitposts? I ask this because I know you can and do post better in other threads.

Maybe you should direct these questions to the person implying official death statistics from the South African government are similar to last year's conspiracy theories about burial urn production and Chinese cover-ups

But it's your thread, run it how you want I guess

# ? Dec 23, 2021 18:16

Professor Beetus: Apr 12, 2007; They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

VitalSigns posted:

Maybe you should direct these questions to the person implying official death statistics from the South African government are similar to last year's conspiracy theories about burial urn production and Chinese cover-ups

But it's your thread, run it how you want I guess

If you actually read the posts in context starting from Judakel's post about excess death, you can clearly see he's not doing that and rather responding to Judakel's alarmist take on a trend that was immediately called out as being on par with comparable excess death statistics. Perhaps you should try reading the loving thread instead of every third word or whatever is causing this disconnect.

e: Sorry if I sound cranky but some of you really need to start getting better about disagreeing with people without turning everything they post into some weird strawman that only exists in your head.

# ? Dec 23, 2021 18:42

Owlofcreamcheese: May 22, 2005; Can't post for 9 years!; Buglord

VitalSigns posted:

Maybe you should direct these questions to the person implying official death statistics from the South African government are similar to last year's conspiracy theories about burial urn production and Chinese cover-ups

The statistics are fine.

Posting them as some "mild deaths" type of thing and a link to some conversation about how south africa had to cover up deaths because of travel bans.

Like yeah, south africa doesn't catch every case. It's why they put out the excess death numbers. There has not been a single person anywhere in this thread claiming there was actually zero omicron deaths. It seems from the graph that deaths are still much lower than past waves. But instead of posting that or the actual data the post is a link to cspam and a cspam quote that reads like there had been some coverup. a "curious" amount of death or something. Instead of .... basically the sort of reported vs actual that has appears to be the norm for literally every day recorded.

# ? Dec 23, 2021 18:48

Professor Beetus: Apr 12, 2007; They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

Going to drop a general statement about cross posting in here. Obviously it's not against the rules to post in multiple subforums, but if 90% of your posting is pinging between the 3 major Covid threads then you might want to take a step back and think about what you're doing to yourself. Likewise, if I find out that you're running back to another thread to talk poo poo or rile people up and encourage brigading behavior, mods of the other subforums will be happy to deal with you. If you just can't stand this thread enough that you run back and bitch about it elsewhere, then maybe you should consider that this isn't the thread for you. Not going to tell anyone how to live their life other than get vaxxed, wear a mask, get boosted if eligible, but please be considerate to others and stop engaging in behavior that just causes interforum drama.

Thank you.

# ? Dec 23, 2021 18:58

Isentropy: Dec 12, 2010

So, uh, what exactly does it mean when your positivity rate goes up to nearly 20%? Any way to guesstimate what the real case number is?

(Ontario is at about 16)

# ? Dec 23, 2021 21:21

StrugglingHoneybun: Jan 2, 2005; Aint no thing like me, 'cept me.

I love having a pfizer card and a moderna card like how a spy has multiple passports.

I am now quad vaxxed

# ? Dec 23, 2021 21:35

kiimo: Jul 24, 2003

StrugglingHoneybun posted:

I love having a pfizer card and a moderna card like how a spy has multiple passports.

I am now quad vaxxed

I was told in this thread not to lie to health professionals

# ? Dec 23, 2021 21:44

CAT INTERCEPTOR: Nov 9, 2004; Basically a male Margaret Thatcher

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/omicron-hospital-risk-is-up-to-70-per-cent-lower-than-delta-uk-says-20211224-p59jxm.html

UK govt agency saying that Omicrom infections 50-70% less likely to end up in hospital.

The issue will be of course the infection rate being high hospitals will be hosed anyway due to sheer numbers. But good news at the individual level. Also some data in there about booster long term effectiveness.

# ? Dec 23, 2021 21:50

Rust Martialis: May 8, 2007; At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there

Denmark - 23 December

Denmark is not, it seems, going stratospheric for Christmas yet.

pre:

Denmark Covid Cases
------------------------------------
Dec 23 12,487 new cases, 613 reinfections, 158 new hospitalizations (541 total, +17), 72 ICU (+6), 38 vent (+1), 15 dead
Dec 22 13,386 new cases, 531 reinfections, 126 new hospitalization (524 total, -1), 66 ICU (-1), 37 vent(+2), 14 dead 
Dec 21 13,558 new cases, 501 reinfections, 121 new hospitalization (526 total, -27), 67 ICU (+1), 35 vent(+2) , 17 dead
Dec 20 10,082 (553 hospitalized)
Dec 19 8,212
Dec 18 8,594
Dec 17 11,194
Dec 16 9,999
Dec 15 8,773

Since yesterday, rates per 100,000 population

pre:

                                  Unvaccinated              Partial           Full                           Unvaccinated    Partial    Full
23 DEC    New cases:                     237.1                202.6          197.9    Hospitalizations:              35.4       16.2    7.5
22 DEC    New cases:                     257.1                198.1          211.7    Hospitalizations:              34.2       15.3    7.3
21 DEC    New cases:                     270.1                226.2          207.8    Hospitalizations:              32.9       14.3    7.5

Omicron percentage of variant tests

pre:

20-dec-21	59,04
19-dec-21	54,24
18-dec-21	47,90
17-dec-21	48,63
16-dec-21	45,16
15-dec-21	45,71
14-dec-21	37,97
13-dec-21	28,44
12-dec-21	22,06
11-dec-21	16,51
10-dec-21	12,79
09-dec-21	11,16
08-dec-21	10,17
07-dec-21	7,21
06-dec-21	4,87
05-dec-21	3,27
04-dec-21	2,12
03-dec-21	1,49
02-dec-21	1,40
01-dec-21	1,78

Sources:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/242ec2acc014456295189631586f1d26
https://covid19.ssi.dk/virusvarianter/delta-pcr

# ? Dec 23, 2021 22:02

kiimo: Jul 24, 2003

Does anyone have a good link or source to combat an idiot family member who thinks we don't know about the long term mortality rate of vaccines

# ? Dec 23, 2021 22:07

FlamingLiberal: Jan 18, 2009; Would you like to play a game?

CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/omicron-hospital-risk-is-up-to-70-per-cent-lower-than-delta-uk-says-20211224-p59jxm.html

UK govt agency saying that Omicrom infections 50-70% less likely to end up in hospital.

The issue will be of course the infection rate being high hospitals will be hosed anyway due to sheer numbers. But good news at the individual level. Also some data in there about booster long term effectiveness.

I guess that 50-70% is just overall? The article doesn't specify if they are talking about all people or vaccinated people or what

# ? Dec 23, 2021 22:07

Wang Commander: Dec 27, 2003; by sebmojo

kiimo posted:

Does anyone have a good link or source to combat an idiot family member who thinks we don't know about the long term mortality rate of vaccines

Antivax isn't idiocy, it's them signalling that they're a fascist ideologue and can safely be cut out of your life.

# ? Dec 23, 2021 22:15

Thorn Wishes Talon: Oct 18, 2014; by Fluffdaddy

kiimo posted:

Does anyone have a good link or source to combat an idiot family member who thinks we don't know about the long term mortality rate of vaccines

you can always lie to them, as long as they aren't a healthcare professional

# ? Dec 23, 2021 22:15

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# ? May 23, 2024 12:59

Jaxyon: Mar 7, 2016; I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

kiimo posted:

Does anyone have a good link or source to combat an idiot family member who thinks we don't know about the long term mortality rate of vaccines

You can tell them we do know the short term mortality rates of vaccines vs getting Covid and it's pretty stark, but honeslty you're not going to reason them out of a position they didn't arrive at based on reason.

StrugglingHoneybun posted:

I love having a pfizer card and a moderna card like how a spy has multiple passports.

I am now quad vaxxed

Why stop there, get all the vaccines

# ? Dec 23, 2021 22:56

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > COVID-19: People on the internet are judging me for going outside. It used to be the reverse.

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