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Which horse film is your favorite? This poll is closed. |
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|---|---|---|---|
| Black Beauty |
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2 | 1.06% |
| A Talking Pony!?! |
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4 | 2.13% |
| Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor |
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117 | 62.23% |
| War Horse |
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11 | 5.85% |
| Mr. Hands |
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54 | 28.72% |
| Total: | 188 votes | ||
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Yeah if you're gonna posit information key to an argument can you please post a link or something? Awful lot of bullshit assumptions can be avoided that way, and also I'd like to learn more
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Dec 30, 2021 04:03
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Bearinabox posted:It didn't fail. But what happened during the 2020 lockdown was that cases went to zero. During 2021, we implemented the same exact measures, and the lockdown didn't eradicate cases - it merely kept them at a steady level. But those were manageable numbers. Australia is now entering a phase that we've been on since day one (New York) where medical systems are regularly taxed - and medical personnel is likely to quit more and more as they deal with an ongoing pandemic. I am a big believer that you can drive it down to zero if you get strict about controlling these private gatherings with public displays of enforcement like neighborhood patrols, but even if you never do drive it down to zero, you're not heading to a good place.
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Dec 30, 2021 04:04
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Bearinabox posted:It didn't fail. But what happened during the 2020 lockdown was that cases went to zero. During 2021, we implemented the same exact measures, and the lockdown didn't eradicate cases - it merely kept them at a steady level. I haven't seen anyone suggest a lockdown is going to get Omicron to zero cases, but that doesn't mean we don't need to stabilise case numbers. NSW is heading for hospital system collapse in a couple weeks time right now and the other non-WA states aren't that far behind.
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Dec 30, 2021 04:06
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Blitter posted:Look I get that you're fully in the "nothing better is possible" camp but you're just loving wrong. Melbourne did all this.
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Dec 30, 2021 04:11
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droll posted:This is amusing because its been posted every couple months for over a year now. Any day now! lol Any day now? No, no I don't think so. I'm pretty convinced that within 5-10 years China will be living with endemic Covid just like the rest of the world, though.
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Dec 30, 2021 04:11
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slorb posted:I haven't seen anyone suggest a lockdown is going to get Omicron to zero cases, but that doesn't mean we don't need to stabilise case numbers. Straight up loving lie. NSW hospitals aren’t even at the levels they were two months ago.
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Dec 30, 2021 04:11
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slorb posted:I haven't seen anyone suggest a lockdown is going to get Omicron to zero cases, but that doesn't mean we don't need to stabilise case numbers. Case numbers of hospitalization numbers? I have long since disassociated COVID case numbers as a metric for what reasonable PHIs should be enforced. Doomers just keep ignoring the fact that case numbers are increasingly disassociated from negative health outcomes. Ever since most Western countries got the double vax done, it is overwhelmingly the unvaccinated and those with major pre-existing comorbidities that end up dying or even going into expensive ICU care. Now with Omicron, the countries that are or have already seen Omicron peak are reporting that a substantial, if not majority of "cases" even in the hospital are not there because of the viral infection. They are there for completely unrelated reasons, are asymptomatic, but because they have to be tested for COVID upon entry into the hospital, they are tagged as a 'COVID patient in hospital'. I am very close to the point where even "in hospital with COVID" is no longer a metric of any use because of coincidental cases. It's time for public health officials to really dial down and tell us what the actual numbers are - upfront without having the need for people to tease apart numbers - how many people are actually in the hospital due to COVID complications.
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Dec 30, 2021 04:13
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Bearinabox posted:Straight up loving lie. NSW hospitals aren’t even at the levels they were two months ago. https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-hospitalised/nsw Check out the last couple weeks and project it two weeks into the future. I don't think you understand exponential growth.
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Dec 30, 2021 04:14
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Bearinabox posted:Straight up loving lie. NSW hospitals aren’t even at the levels they were two months ago. https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-hospitalised/nsw They're now at the same level as mid-october and twice as high as late-october.
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Dec 30, 2021 04:15
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How are u posted:Any day now? No, no I don't think so. I'm pretty convinced that within 5-10 years China will be living with endemic Covid just like the rest of the world, though. this is a bit off-topic, but im curious, what you would need to see to revise this stance? Or, have you simply determined that endemic covid is an inevitability and there is nothing that china can do that could convince you that they will remain a zero covid nation?
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Dec 30, 2021 04:15
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MikeC posted:I am very close to the point where even "in hospital with COVID" is no longer a metric of any use because of coincidental cases. It's time for public health officials to really dial down and tell us what the actual numbers are - upfront without having the need for people to tease apart numbers - how many people are actually in the hospital due to COVID complications. If you're in hospital "with Covid" instead of "because of Covid", the hospital still has to treat you under infection protocols. Once hospitals are full of people "with Covid" they stop functioning efficiently. Also a lot of sick people who turn up to the hospital for other reasons catch Covid in hospital and end up dying because sick people don't handle Covid infections well.
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Dec 30, 2021 04:20
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A big flaming stink posted:endemic covid is an inevitability and there is nothing that china can do that could convince you that they will remain a zero covid nation? This.
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Dec 30, 2021 04:22
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Bearinabox posted:You're changing the conversation. I'm not saying these don't work. I'm saying, *how can you enforce private gatherings where infections occurred*. The average mask worn in woolies during this was a linen earloop facemask from amazon. Absolutely nothing was done to prevent unnecessary shopping (like policing Bunnings themselves to stop them from being able to sell non-essentials). Nothing more than relying on market forces was done to increase direct-to-boot shopping. Non-essential worksites and offices were widely open. We still don't have air filtering/quality mandates. For something so incredibly taxing on its citizens the government did not step up to ensure it was more successful.
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Dec 30, 2021 04:25
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Hashy posted:The average mask worn in woolies during this was a linen earloop facemask from amazon. Absolutely nothing was done to prevent unnecessary shopping (like policing Bunnings themselves to stop them from being able to sell non-essentials). Nothing more than relying on market forces was done to increase direct-to-boot shopping. Non-essential worksites and offices were widely open. We still don't have air filtering/quality mandates. For something so incredibly taxing on its citizens the government did not step up to ensure it was more successful. At a certain point it’s just beyond the capacity of a western style democracy to enforce these types of restrictions you’re suggesting, honestly. Reading what AUS did from a U.S. perspective brings a tear to my eye.
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Dec 30, 2021 04:39
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 Got my booster today! My first two shots were Pfizer and this was a Moderna. So far my arm hurts a bit but otherwise no side effects
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Dec 30, 2021 04:45
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HonorableTB posted:Got my booster today! My first two shots were Pfizer and this was a Moderna. So far my arm hurts a bit but otherwise no side effects I had the same sequence and 24hrs later had a fever of 101.4, chills, and fatigue. Of course it's highly individual, you'd expect the worst to hit about 24hrs after
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Dec 30, 2021 04:47
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slorb posted:If you're in hospital "with Covid" instead of "because of Covid", the hospital still has to treat you under infection protocols. Except there isn't any evidence of this being a major factor. Mortality rates in the UK and South Africa have not jumped significantly despite the tidal wave of Omicron that just swept through them. There is so much COVID there that they have the case counts are no longer even reliable becuase they can't test fast enough and it is likely a very significant portion of those infected have negligible or even zero symptoms. Doomer speak used to be 'just wait for it' 2 weeks ago. 2 weeks have come and gone. How many of those who died actually died of COVID rather than having died from other reasons but happened to have the virus? They don't tell us. More and more doctors are saying that the case count is now totally decoupled from serious negative health events. See the article I linked a few pages back. People are being listed in UK hospitals as "COVID patients", with no symptoms. We have to stop treating case counts like we did in 2020. It is time health officials start crunching the numbers on this kind of stuff. If someone sat down and gave out numbers like here are the x number extra deaths from people with/without comorbidities due to COVID and it turns out to be much more significant than say a bad year of the seasonal flu then I would take the Doomers more seriously. But they don't. This is the kind of stuff that generates conspiracy theories. It doesn't help. I set the line at seasonal flu because we as a global society have come to accept that influenza is endemic and will take away a chunk of the elderly and sick every year and we don't undergo strenuous PHIs for it. I remember when I got really loving sick from swine flu back around 10 years ago, there was definitely a concern and a declared pandemic. Something like 250-500k people died. No mass lockdowns. We just took it on the chin and moved on. If a modern country, with the majority of the population double vaxxed, has an Omicron (the variant that is literally squeezing out every other COIVD strain the moment it lands) death/hospitalization rate similar or below that of H1N1.......why are we still doing this?
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Dec 30, 2021 04:56
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Judakel posted:https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-hospitalised/nsw slorb posted:https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-hospitalised/nsw Now go back a few more weeks. We're a fair way off that that so the poster you are quoting is making a resonable statement..... at this point in time. Given Omicron's now fairly well noted milder illness for a highly vaccinated population we may or may not go past September's numbers.
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Dec 30, 2021 05:08
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MikeC posted:Except there isn't any evidence of this being a major factor. Mortality rates in the UK and South Africa have not jumped significantly despite the tidal wave of Omicron that just swept through them. There is so much COVID there that they have the case counts are no longer even reliable becuase they can't test fast enough and it is likely a very significant portion of those infected have negligible or even zero symptoms. Doomer speak used to be 'just wait for it' 2 weeks ago. 2 weeks have come and gone. How many of those who died actually died of COVID rather than having died from other reasons but happened to have the virus? They don't tell us. More and more doctors are saying that the case count is now totally decoupled from serious negative health events. See the article I linked a few pages back. People are being listed in UK hospitals as "COVID patients", with no symptoms. We have to stop treating case counts like we did in 2020. Are…are you sincerely comparing COVID to swine flu?
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Dec 30, 2021 05:20
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:Now go back a few more weeks. We're a fair way off that that so the poster you are quoting is making a resonable statement..... at this point in time. Given Omicron's now fairly well noted milder illness for a highly vaccinated population we may or may not go past September's numbers. He said two months... The point is that you're about to be a whole lot worse off and that poster has a history of arguing in bad faith on this issue.
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Dec 30, 2021 05:21
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Big Slammu posted:At a certain point it’s just beyond the capacity of a western style democracy to enforce these types of restrictions you’re suggesting, honestly. Reading what AUS did from a U.S. perspective brings a tear to my eye. It's too far beyond a western style democracy to audit records already produced for tax purposes and fine a franchise to stop them selling craftwares to pandemic browsers, or to produce decent masks in the country and inform people that other kinds are not effective? Or to step slightly outside the box of market forces to help businesses understand that they need to have systems in place to let people get items brought outside the store on purchase? And then actually message the population and tell them that this is a long term issue? Are we really so lacking in will and imagination during (if not for the multigenerational crisis of climate change) the biggest crisis of our generation? God, pack me up and ship me to the nearest "totalitarian regime"
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Dec 30, 2021 05:34
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How are u posted:This. God for being so vocal about doomers wanting numbers to go up to say 'I told you so' we sure are hungry to see zero covid attempts fail. Is it to validate our optimism? our lack of will to sacrifice things like China is doing?
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Dec 30, 2021 05:43
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:Now go back a few more weeks. We're a fair way off that that so the poster you are quoting is making a resonable statement..... at this point in time. Given Omicron's now fairly well noted milder illness for a highly vaccinated population we may or may not go past September's numbers. The ratio between cases and hospitalisations is probably lower with Omicron than Delta, but its still a linear relationship. Case numbers are increasing exponentially in NSW even with the testing system hitting capacity because the test positivity rate keeps rising. The actual number of infections is skyrocketing, and the number of hospitalisations is going to rise proportionally. The ratio between case numbers and hospitalisations will actually get worse if the age profile of Omicron cases starts to shift older than the 18-39 demographic that is currently driving case numbers as happened in previous surges.
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Dec 30, 2021 05:47
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droll posted:With all due respect there was a page long discussion based on your assertion. I posit that this may not actually be true because I don't recall freebooter referencing it before when he discussed how COVID zero just wasn't possible in Australia. https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/cautiously-optimistic-health-chief-welcomes-victorias-covid-case-numbers--c-4214165 quote:On being asked if smaller home gatherings could be allowed before 70 per cent vaccine coverage was achieved, Sutton did not exclude the possibility, but said household transmission was a “significant driver”. That's just one quote, the health authorities talked about private gatherings a lot during the lockdown. (They were doing daily press conferences which is how a lot of us came to absorb our conventional wisdom). Essential workplaces (distro centres etc) were also big drivers, though I think less so than Sydney. Judakel posted:I am a big believer that you can drive it down to zero if you get strict about controlling these private gatherings with public displays of enforcement like neighborhood patrols. So was I until I lived it and found otherwise. I want you to consider how frustrating it is to spend four months in harsh lockdown and successfully drive cases down back down to zero and have a great COVID-free summer... then a year later you spend another four months in lockdown except this time the case numbers just keep going up and up, and it's in large part because the outside world which refused to ever take this as seriously as your own country brewed up a far more infectious variant and your lockdowns no longer work. Blitter posted:Look I get that you're fully in the "nothing better is possible" camp but you're just loving wrong. That's great - I take it you've now achieved COVID-zero?
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Dec 30, 2021 05:55
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slorb posted:The ratio between cases and hospitalisations is probably lower with Omicron than Delta, but its still a linear relationship. You keep ignoring the data that says "COVID" hospitalizations are increasingly incidental and decoupled from case count. How long are you going to keep ignoring South Africa and the UK? They aren't going up despite exploding infection numbers. In fact they have started to flatten because even those who are hospitalized with Omicron are being discharged faster than they were with Delta precisely because of the milder symptoms. freebooter posted:That's great - I take it you've now achieved COVID-zero? Judging from his post I take it he is from Alberta. PHIs in Canada is done at the Provincial level. I think he is angry that his particular province "reopened" very quickly following a collapse in COVID numbers at the start of summer. That combined with Alberta's anti-vax population contributed to a huge spike in September. Other provinces like Ontario had a more measured and tiered approach to reopening and saw a small swell of Delta that was easily controlled without extra PHIs. I used to be onboard with lockdowns but with the data coming out from Omicron and the fact that double vaxx status basically gives you very good odds of dodging bad consequences from infection, I am starting to seriously think its time for this to end. MikeC fucked around with this message at 06:05 on Dec 30, 2021 |
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Dec 30, 2021 05:56
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Judakel posted:call the police. mastershakeman posted:just have cops patrolling Judakel posted:calling the police Why are we suddenly trusting cops at all?
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Dec 30, 2021 06:19
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During a pandemic cops become good.
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Dec 30, 2021 06:27
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MikeC posted:You keep ignoring the data that says "COVID" hospitalizations are increasingly incidental and decoupled from case count. How long are you going to keep ignoring South Africa and the UK? They aren't going up despite exploding infection numbers. In fact they have started to flatten because even those who are hospitalized with Omicron are being discharged faster than they were with Delta precisely because of the milder symptoms.  Looks to me like total hospitalizations (not just new admissions) are going up in London. Not all of UK is same. Similar but steeper picture in NYC. Definitely not clear how it will stack up to previous waves yet as it's still on the upslope. And also definitely not at the same pure vertical as new infections, but a bit early to say it's flattening maybe... I can't really find good live-ish data on "hospitalized from COVID" vs "hospitalized with COVID" though. speng31b fucked around with this message at 06:39 on Dec 30, 2021 |
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Dec 30, 2021 06:28
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we’re stuck in a cycle of waiting for data godot because covid and the pandemic situation evolves faster than we can peer review science. we aren’t changing the measures because of some business plot. case numbers aren’t suddenly becoming unimportant because covid became very gentle, or the capitalists got out their price probability matrices in a smoky back room and gave the working class the thumbs down. we’re changing the measures as we lose the ability to accurately monitor and control the pandemic. which is certainly one path to endemicity. the numbers are being crunched. that’s not the problem. all the time the drat number crunching machine is running, twenty four hours a day, seven days a week. you like numbers, we got numbers. what we lack is certainty, convergence. the problem is data are currently being generated on a scale our data collection and analysis apparatus simply can’t keep up with, in large part because we failed to contain the virus, resulting in massive uncertainty. it has barely even been one publication cycle since delta. what is really going on? what’s going to happen? how bad is it? who even died with or of covid? no one actually knows, and every day we know less and less relative to the space of what is to be known. we’re just looking at higher and higher level measures trying to outrun the spiraling uncertainty. all we really know for sure now is there are a lot of excess deaths lately, a lot of pressure on health care systems, and that there are about a thousand long term dice rolls with all bad outcomes in play. perhaps it’ll be like the flu. perhaps it’ll be more like polio. on the evidence, it could go either way, but the best evidence is impoverished. destitute. starving. and while personally, I don’t really want to wait and see which it is, regardless of what trajectory we’re really on, the damage is basically done. there will be consequences for science as an institution for failing to recognize and admit to the public that the data was never forthcoming; that there are ultimate limits to inference; that the pandemic response was always political through and through, only appealing to science’s credibility. that is why we failed, and why business as usual economics are now calling the shots in spite of what little sound science we do have. there has been a real betrayal, however arcane, of the public trust here that will reverberate for years.
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Dec 30, 2021 06:38
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speng31b posted:
Where is that graph from? I am pulling my info from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=overview&areaName=United%20Kingdom It shows something completely different.
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Dec 30, 2021 06:45
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MikeC posted:Where is that graph from? I am pulling my info from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=overview&areaName=United%20Kingdom It shows something completely different. Same source, filtered for London https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsRegion&areaName=London Edit: NYC https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/daily-hospitalization-summary  I don't get the impression it's a lot of "incidentally COVID" causing big numbers of hospitalizations in the population centers. It's currently holding up as more mild per admitted case but there aren't a small or flattening number of hospitalizations according to the this stuff https://www.google.com/amp/s/pix11.com/news/local-news/hospitals-slammed-by-patient-surge-as-covid-shatters-case-records-in-new-york/amp/ speng31b fucked around with this message at 06:52 on Dec 30, 2021 |
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Dec 30, 2021 06:46
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freebooter posted:So was I until I lived it and found otherwise. Yes, that can be very frustrating, which is why we need to eliminate covid globally like we have other illnesses. If we do not, then you can look forward to decreased life expectancies and overwhelmed medical systems for most countries. dwarf74 posted:Why are we suddenly trusting antivax cops to enforce restrictions they don't think will work, to control the spread of a disease they don't think exists? Charles 2 of Spain posted:During a pandemic cops become good. The necessity for cops is ultimately why anarchism is nonsense and why cops being largely chuds is unfortunate.
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Dec 30, 2021 06:52
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speng31b posted:Same source, filtered for London https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsRegion&areaName=London I already posted the article a few pages back. You can find it here. It is paywalled so I quoted some relevant parts. https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3979298&userid=59263#post520305134 The incidental hospitalization trend was spotted in South Africa for almost a month now and is sustained. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/12/report-south-africas-omicron-hot-spot-spurs-cautious-optimism https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(21)01256-X/fulltext This last article suggests that up to 62% of admissions in South Africa were incidental finds. IE patients came in not seeking COVID treatment, but for something else, got tested as routine policy, and then put into the COVID ward. I cannot speak to the NY numbers. edit: quote:Sixty-two (63%) patients were incidental COVID admissions having been admitted for another serious MikeC fucked around with this message at 07:03 on Dec 30, 2021 |
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Dec 30, 2021 07:00
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MikeC posted:I already posted the article a few pages back. You can find it here. It is paywalled so I quoted some relevant parts. The SA data is interesting but not necessarily the same as what's happening in other major population centers right now. As I recall SA didn't even have a particularly large "hospitalized with or of" COVID curve like we're seeing in NYC and London at the moment. Keeping an eye on overall capacity should be informative ( in NYC it's 22% ICU beds / 25% all beds according to current stats ) Anyways yeah we should keep an eye on it for a bit longer before making broad statements I think E: quote:Levine said the omicron variant continues to be more mild; however, with so many cases “that it is now resulting in a rapid increase of hospital admissions.” "Milder but a lot more cases" is basically as-advertised, so not surprising. speng31b fucked around with this message at 07:09 on Dec 30, 2021 |
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Dec 30, 2021 07:03
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speng31b posted:The SA data is interesting but not necessarily the same as what's happening in other major population centers right now. As I recall SA didn't even have a particularly large "hospitalized with or of" COVID curve like we're seeing in NYC and London at the moment Yes but this type of story is popping up all over the place. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-dec-29-2021-record-high-case-count-1.6299698 quote:Chagla says the number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 is also hard to read as some patients are there due to the illness while others are there for other medical reasons. This is exactly the type of poo poo that drives me nuts when Doomers just keep pointing to case counts. I am all for PHIs.....IF it makes sense. When doctors and health organizations know from other jurisdictions that incidental rates are up in their waves, but continue to not report what is or is not incidental, it feeds right into the conspiracy theory nuts. It breeds the sentiment that they don't tell us because they want to keep the panic going.
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Dec 30, 2021 07:09
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Judakel posted:Yes, that can be very frustrating, which is why we need to eliminate covid globally like we have other illnesses. If we do not, then you can look forward to decreased life expectancies and overwhelmed medical systems for most countries. In some ways I admire your dogmatism on this, but if Australia and New Zealand with all their wealth and resources and geographic isolation could not, in the end, manage to locally eliminate Delta, then I don't understand how you think Afghanistan and India and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (etc) will.
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Dec 30, 2021 07:16
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MikeC posted:This is exactly the type of poo poo that drives me nuts when Doomers just keep pointing to case counts. I am all for PHIs.....IF it makes sense. When doctors and health organizations know from other jurisdictions that incidental rates are up in their waves, but continue to not report what is or is not incidental, it feeds right into the conspiracy theory nuts. It breeds the sentiment that they don't tell us because they want to keep the panic going. Sure... I mean it's one thing to say "look at these cases skyrocket" but there's no strain on hospitals, but the data I'm looking at doesn't have enough information to be certain about the second half of that. We're seeing a lot of cases result in fairly substantial hospitalization increases of COVID patients in the immediate short term (albeit not same as case rate) in major population centers right now, and beyond that I'd be cautious about predicting too much.
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Dec 30, 2021 07:17
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freebooter posted:In some ways I admire your dogmatism on this, but if Australia and New Zealand with all their wealth and resources and geographic isolation could not, in the end, manage to locally eliminate Delta, then I don't understand how you think Afghanistan and India and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (etc) will. it will require a global commitment to cooperation and the common good. so completely and utterly impossible lmao
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Dec 30, 2021 07:17
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A big flaming stink posted:it will require a global commitment to cooperation and the common good. in the US, it will require unarmed neighborhood patrols
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Dec 30, 2021 07:32
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Fritz the Horse posted:in the US, it will require unarmed neighborhood patrols Another dozen COVID cases logged when the patrol lads knock off shift and crack open a few beers back at patrol headquarters
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Dec 30, 2021 07:34
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