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Which horse film is your favorite?
This poll is closed.
Black Beauty 2 1.06%
A Talking Pony!?! 4 2.13%
Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor 117 62.23%
War Horse 11 5.85%
Mr. Hands 54 28.72%
Total: 188 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
  • Post
  • Reply
Judakel
Jul 29, 2004
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!

freebooter posted:

In some ways I admire your dogmatism on this, but if Australia and New Zealand with all their wealth and resources and geographic isolation could not, in the end, manage to locally eliminate Delta, then I don't understand how you think Afghanistan and India and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (etc) will.

By themselves, I don't expect they will. But with our help they absolutely can. Australia and New Zealand caved to business interests as soon as it looked like their GDP might take a beating. Granted, Australia also did plenty of dumb things, like flying people back from India in the midst of the Delta wave. I don't believe they even had their quarantine facility up and running at the time.

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freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Judakel posted:

Granted, Australia also did plenty of dumb things, like flying people back from India in the midst of the Delta wave. I don't believe they even had their quarantine facility up and running at the time.

Australia actually infamously barred even its own citizens from returning from India in the Delta wave, to huge domestic and international outcry, but thanks for revealing once again that you have no clue what you're talking about

Judakel
Jul 29, 2004
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!

freebooter posted:

Australia actually infamously barred even its own citizens from returning from India in the Delta wave, to huge domestic and international outcry, but thanks for revealing once again that you have no clue what you're talking about

You're right. I misremembered one of their countless errors. I do have some clue what I am talking about with regards to handling covid, though. After all, China is a success.

ModernMajorGeneral
Jun 25, 2010
It's funny how people who are like 'zero covid is insane because the west neither can nor should emulate evil China's policies, you tankies' are implicitly claiming Taiwan either doesn't exist or is the same as the PRC

ModernMajorGeneral
Jun 25, 2010
Quote is not edit

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

ModernMajorGeneral posted:

It's funny how people who are like 'zero covid is insane because the west neither can nor should emulate evil China's policies, you tankies' are implicitly claiming Taiwan either doesn't exist or is the same as the PRC

This makes Taiwan one of two (2) major countries successfully continuing a COVID-zero policy. Last year there were six, and four of them were brought undone by Delta. What will the end of 2022 look like?

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!

ModernMajorGeneral posted:

It's funny how people who are like 'zero covid is insane because the west neither can nor should emulate evil China's policies, you tankies' are implicitly claiming Taiwan either doesn't exist or is the same as the PRC

This is a fair point, and one I think is worth exploring further.

One part of China (and Taiwan's) success are they acted early and aggressively and as a result can take very focused action to address breakouts.

China has not achieved zero COVID. What they have is periodic city and province-level lockdowns, somewhat similar to what Australia went through (?). Breakouts are localized and the affected areas are subject to swift and harsh lockdown measures, along with strict restrictions at borders and international ports of entry.

You could, somewhat uncharitably, compare China's efforts to a game of whack-a-mole. They keep having outbreaks of low-level community spread, but they're able to contain them. That is certainly a success story and I'm not trying to minimize it, but it's very different than the current situation in the US and many Western nations.

Community spread in the US is everywhere and at high levels. A zero-COVID approach here in the US looks very different from China or Taiwan (or others) because you having a radically different starting point.


I guess my main point is that a zero-COVID strategy in the US can't simply replicate what's been done in China, it actually would require far more radical actions. Because they are not starting from the same baseline situation.

Judakel
Jul 29, 2004
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
International travel will continue to a huge headache for everyone as long as this pandemic is ongoing.

ModernMajorGeneral
Jun 25, 2010

freebooter posted:

This makes Taiwan one of two (2) major countries successfully continuing a COVID-zero policy. Last year there were six, and four of them were brought undone by Delta. What will the end of 2022 look like?

I'm guessing by the end of 2022 there will either be 2, 1, or 0 places successfully continuing a covid-zero policy, but there probably would be more if countries actually considered the policies used by covid zero places to be aspirational (even if they never quite got there)

Fritz the Horse posted:

This is a fair point, and one I think is worth exploring further.

One part of China (and Taiwan's) success are they acted early and aggressively and as a result can take very focused action to address breakouts.

China has not achieved zero COVID. What they have is periodic city and province-level lockdowns, somewhat similar to what Australia went through (?). Breakouts are localized and the affected areas are subject to swift and harsh lockdown measures, along with strict restrictions at borders and international ports of entry.

You could, somewhat uncharitably, compare China's efforts to a game of whack-a-mole. They keep having outbreaks of low-level community spread, but they're able to contain them. That is certainly a success story and I'm not trying to minimize it, but it's very different than the current situation in the US and many Western nations.

Community spread in the US is everywhere and at high levels. A zero-COVID approach here in the US looks very different from China or Taiwan (or others) because you having a radically different starting point.


I guess my main point is that a zero-COVID strategy in the US can't simply replicate what's been done in China, it actually would require far more radical actions. Because they are not starting from the same baseline situation.

I think being able to contain outbreaks of low level community spread (and have most of the population live their lives most of the time with the expectation that covid is not a problem for them) is more or less what 'zero covid' advocates expect. You could argue that this makes 'zero covid' a misleading term but you're largely splitting hairs - I don't think the Chinese government expects to have some mythical situation where there are never any outbreaks ever again, no matter how worried they might get about individual ones.

I agree that zero covid is not feasible in the US without an instant communist revolution or alien mind control or whatever and would require more drastic policies than the PRC or Taiwan (although I think those drastic policies could still be the same although at much wider scale and requiring more resources). It might have been feasible at the start of the pandemic. It was however feasible here in Australia for much longer (if the government had made a concerted effort to commit to it) - probably not feasible any more - and in other countries without widespread community transmission.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Judakel posted:

International travel will continue to a huge headache for everyone as long as this pandemic is ongoing.

Unfortunately so will international freight and that one's non-negotiable.


ModernMajorGeneral posted:

I'm guessing by the end of 2022 there will either be 2, 1, or 0 places successfully continuing a covid-zero policy, but there probably would be more if countries actually considered the policies used by covid zero places to be aspirational (even if they never quite got there)

Sorry but nobody wants to spend another 8+ months of their lives in hard lockdown for something "aspirational" which didn't get us to zero last time and isn't going to get us to zero with an even more infectious variant

quote:

I think being able to contain outbreaks of low level community spread (and have most of the population live their lives most of the time with the expectation that covid is not a problem for them) is more or less what 'zero covid' advocates expect. You could argue that this makes 'zero covid' a misleading term but you're largely splitting hairs - I don't think the Chinese government expects to have some mythical situation where there are never any outbreaks ever again, no matter how worried they might get about individual ones.

My absolute favourite hair splitting was when the Australian government last year called their policy goal "no community transmission" rather than "elimination" with the official line being that it meant we had to understand there would occasionally be incursions and outbreaks. I am 100% sure the actual reason for the semantics was that New Zealand embraced "elimination" both as a phrase and a goal early on, whereas the Australian government stumbled into the policy by accident and just wanted to differentiate themselves from Ardern. I've got to remember to check in 25 years when the cabinet papers get released.

IT BEGINS
Jan 15, 2009

I don't know how to make analogies
Even as someone who was (is?) pro-lockdown, it's hard to want to put yourself through more of the same from the last two years. I'd love to pretend that government policy could have saved us here in the US, but with so little trust in government as a whole, I don't see how any policy, no matter how harsh, would have actually worked. If there is no will, there is no way.

As a separate mini-vent, it sucks to feel like you're part of one big prisoner's dilemma, only you know the other person is going to betray, every time.

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

IT BEGINS posted:

Even as someone who was (is?) pro-lockdown, it's hard to want to put yourself through more of the same from the last two years. I'd love to pretend that government policy could have saved us here in the US, but with so little trust in government as a whole, I don't see how any policy, no matter how harsh, would have actually worked. If there is no will, there is no way.

As a separate mini-vent, it sucks to feel like you're part of one big prisoner's dilemma, only you know the other person is going to betray, every time.

I think it could have been accomplished if there was an actual commitment to the idea of shared sacrifice, but instead we just got got exhorted to do our part while the rich and the powerful did jack poo poo to actually demonstrate their commitment. Not to mention the gov broadcasted from day one that they were only grudgingly providing material support, and half-hearted at that.

Anyway, a real loving grim outlook from the CDC for the next month:

https://twitter.com/donwinslow/status/1476357832110792708?t=5hUJW--q9j9YSPRff1GxqQ&s=19

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

That's not a scientist and that's not the actual CDC he's tagging so anyone got that somewhere else?

freebooter posted:

I want you to consider how frustrating it is to spend four months in harsh lockdown and successfully drive cases down back down to zero and have a great COVID-free summer... then a year later you spend another four months in lockdown except this time the case numbers just keep going up and up, and it's in large part because the outside world which refused to ever take this as seriously as your own country brewed up a far more infectious variant and your lockdowns no longer work.

I can't imagine how frustrating that must be. Thought it's pretty frustrating living through it on this end.

Also LOL at the people talking about police enforcement of covid protocols, covid is the #1 cause of death for cops and they won't even wear masks let alone get vaccinated.

Who do you think is going to make them do anything? The police own the city governments.

Zodium
Jun 19, 2004

IT BEGINS posted:

As a separate mini-vent, it sucks to feel like you're part of one big prisoner's dilemma, only you know the other person is going to betray, every time.

that’s exactly what is happening, but that isn’t your fault. your state did this, and no one individual in any state could have made it otherwise because our form of government and economic system in the west are simply constitutionally incapable of handling a crisis it created the conditions to virtually ensure would happen. compound interest has no pause button. what we have seen again and again across countries and cultures is not a failure of the people, but a failure of governance to serve two masters.

incompetent and inconsistent guidance, half assed measures, knee jerk reactions. millions are dead and disabled with however many more to come. livelihoods are in ruin. the costs are basically impossible to grasp. and we need to talk about that beyond bikeshedding the pandemic science while we ponder the true nature of viral severity and endemicity, because it changes nothing. absolutely nothing. as a society, we now need redress, we need change of governance to something that can prevent and manage exponential risks. we cannot continue failing to govern if we are to have a society at all. we can’t live our lives in a prisoner’s dilemma.

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!

Jaxyon posted:

That's not a scientist and that's not the actual CDC he's tagging so anyone got that somewhere else?

i'm very sorry that twitter account does not meet the scholarly standards of D&D covid thread. the OP made the foolish mistake of assuming that the subject would be interesting to talk about, but thank you all for making it clear nothing has changed and this remains one of the most toxic threads in the entire forums.

Don Winslow (born October 31, 1953) is an American author[1] and liberal political activist most recognized for his crime and mystery novels. Many of his books are set in California. Five of his novels feature private investigator Neal Carey. He has also co-written screenplays for Savages, Satori, and other adaptations of his novels with screenwriter/producer Shane Salerno.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
Here’s the actual CDC death forecast site, which should be read with extreme care given that it’s a death forecasting site:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/forecasting/forecasting-us.html#anchor_1587397564229

It’s too late at night for me to dig through all the applicable caveats, but the reported forecast number doesn’t match the tweet above.

Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 09:28 on Dec 30, 2021

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Fritz the Horse posted:

i'm very sorry that twitter account does not meet the scholarly standards of D&D covid thread. the OP made the foolish mistake of assuming that the subject would be interesting to talk about, but thank you all for making it clear nothing has changed and this remains one of the most toxic threads in the entire forums.

Don Winslow (born October 31, 1953) is an American author[1] and liberal political activist most recognized for his crime and mystery novels. Many of his books are set in California. Five of his novels feature private investigator Neal Carey. He has also co-written screenplays for Savages, Satori, and other adaptations of his novels with screenwriter/producer Shane Salerno.

I remain steadfast in my assessment that uspol is one of the worst threads on sa :colbert:

This thread is genuinely interesting by comparison!

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*

IT BEGINS posted:

Even as someone who was (is?) pro-lockdown, it's hard to want to put yourself through more of the same from the last two years. I'd love to pretend that government policy could have saved us here in the US, but with so little trust in government as a whole, I don't see how any policy, no matter how harsh, would have actually worked. If there is no will, there is no way.

As a separate mini-vent, it sucks to feel like you're part of one big prisoner's dilemma, only you know the other person is going to betray, every time.

Western Australia's culture is basically the same as the rest of Australia. We managed to do pretty well with getting people to swallow strict lockdowns/borders because 1) they were simple and clear 2) they applied to everyone (not just "bad" areas) 3) they actually worked because of 1 and 2.

Our Premier got so popular he was re-elected in a landslide so big that the opposition leader resigned and their party had to be deregistered (you need 2+ seats to be a party). Due to today's new travel restrictions, my friend's BF is stuck in QLD and though they're pissed they still supports his policies. Trust in government grows when they actually do things that help people instead of half-arsed measures and sending mixed signals.

Edit: there were also financial aid packages for business. People got takeaway food to help support restaurants because the Premier told people to. I saw lots of people still masked outdoors when we only needed them indoors. The shared experience under an actual leader developed a sense of community.

crepeface fucked around with this message at 14:07 on Dec 30, 2021

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

Fritz the Horse posted:

i'm very sorry that twitter account does not meet the scholarly standards of D&D covid thread. the OP made the foolish mistake of assuming that the subject would be interesting to talk about, but thank you all for making it clear nothing has changed and this remains one of the most toxic threads in the entire forums.

Don Winslow (born October 31, 1953) is an American author[1] and liberal political activist most recognized for his crime and mystery novels. Many of his books are set in California. Five of his novels feature private investigator Neal Carey. He has also co-written screenplays for Savages, Satori, and other adaptations of his novels with screenwriter/producer Shane Salerno.

A big flaming stink posted:

I remain steadfast in my assessment that uspol is one of the worst threads on sa :colbert:

This thread is genuinely interesting by comparison!

I don't know what your issue is right now but I'm probably not the person you're trying to be mad at, and asking for backup when someone cites death numbers as a fiction author who is linking to the wrong CDC with no other source seemed pretty reasonable at the time. Is there any reason it's not?

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Discendo Vox posted:

Here’s the actual CDC death forecast site, which should be read with extreme care given that it’s a death forecasting site:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/forecasting/forecasting-us.html#anchor_1587397564229

It’s too late at night for me to dig through all the applicable caveats, but the reported forecast number doesn’t match the tweet above.


Oh cool, thanks a bunch for the source dv.




admittedly I'm just eyeballing it but it seems like the CDC is forecasting total deaths to rise from 825ish to 860ish in the next 2 and a half weeks, so it seems in line with what the guy is saying at first blush

Jaxyon posted:

I don't know what your issue is right now but I'm probably not the person you're trying to be mad at, and asking for backup when someone cites death numbers as a fiction author who is linking to the wrong CDC with no other source seemed pretty reasonable at the time. Is there any reason it's not?

Oh uh, I did not intend to come off as mad, sorry if I gave that impression :shobon:. I have nothing against fritz or you and enjoy your posting.

See above for the numbers sourcing which discendo was kind enough to provide

A big flaming stink fucked around with this message at 09:38 on Dec 30, 2021

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

Pictured: Poster prepares to celebrate Holy Communion (probablY)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

Fritz the Horse posted:

in the US, it will require unarmed neighborhood patrols

Your better than this Fritz.

I think that the aim of 0 Covid is a noble one and I hope it succeeds. I think that going "oh we should just learn to live with it" is shortsighted and, whilst I can understand it, it is still very bad and steps should be taken to mitigate it.

Josef bugman fucked around with this message at 09:45 on Dec 30, 2021

UCS Hellmaker
Mar 29, 2008
Toilet Rascal
Yes we can completely.eomimate covid if we just work hard enough and clamp down on the entire world so no one does anything. This has been accomplished and worked with other respiratory diseases such as the flu the common cold and rsv.

Wait I just got breaking news, this isn't possible? What do you mean that it's a trolling line of poo poo to suggest that? poo poo maybe listening to the alt right moron calling for neighborhood patrols that enforce mask mandates and prevent gatherings by force is bad???

The only disease successfully eliminated was smallpox, polio is the only other one close to being fully eliminated and only now regionally located in some parts of Africa. Respiratory diseases are notoriously hard to stamp down and it's not happening regardless of the delusions you want to spread to be an outright troll.

UCS Hellmaker
Mar 29, 2008
Toilet Rascal

Josef bugman posted:

Your better than this Fritz.

Naw he's giving the exact effort this thread deserves at this point, ie nothing because you have outright trolls posting here to mine for poo poo to post in other forums or that got driven out by embarrassing statements earlier today from their

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*

A big flaming stink posted:

Oh cool, thanks a bunch for the source dv.




admittedly I'm just eyeballing it but it seems like the CDC is forecasting total deaths to rise from 825ish to 860ish in the next 2 and a half weeks, so it seems in line with what the guy is saying at first blush

Oh uh, I did not intend to come off as mad, sorry if I gave that impression :shobon:. I have nothing against fritz or you and enjoy your posting.

See above for the numbers sourcing which discendo was kind enough to provide

it's a 16kb spreadsheet, just download it

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!

crepeface posted:

it's a 16kb spreadsheet, just download it



Tell me what you want to do: 1 wk ahead cum death

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
death cums for us all

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

crepeface posted:

Western Australia's culture is basically the same as the rest of Australia. We managed to do pretty well with getting people to swallow strict lockdowns/borders because 1) they were simple and clear 2) they applied to everyone (not just "bad" areas) 3) they actually worked because of 1 and 2.

Our Premier got so popular he was re-elected in a landslide so big that the opposition leader resigned and their party had to be registered (you need 2+ seats to be a party). Due to today's new travel restrictions, my friend's BF is stuck in QLD and though they're pissed they still supports his policies. Trust in government grows when they actually do things that help people instead of half-arsed measures and sending mixed signals.

Edit: there were also financial aid packages for business. People got takeaway food to help support restaurants because the Premier told people to. I saw lots of people still masked outdoors when we only needed them indoors. The shared experience under an actual leader developed a sense of community.

Are you the guy who got the McGowan tattoo

ModernMajorGeneral
Jun 25, 2010

freebooter posted:

Unfortunately so will international freight and that one's non-negotiable.

Sorry but nobody wants to spend another 8+ months of their lives in hard lockdown for something "aspirational" which didn't get us to zero last time and isn't going to get us to zero with an even more infectious variant

My absolute favourite hair splitting was when the Australian government last year called their policy goal "no community transmission" rather than "elimination" with the official line being that it meant we had to understand there would occasionally be incursions and outbreaks. I am 100% sure the actual reason for the semantics was that New Zealand embraced "elimination" both as a phrase and a goal early on, whereas the Australian government stumbled into the policy by accident and just wanted to differentiate themselves from Ardern. I've got to remember to check in 25 years when the cabinet papers get released.

The lesson of the Melbourne lockdown is not that it's impossible to reach zero covid, it's that it's impossible to reach zero covid cases when your national government and the neighbouring largest and most influential state are constantly saying zero covid is impossible and pursuing a policy of allowing widespread transmission. To the extent that this is not going to change I agree that further lockdown and trying to pursue covid zero is a waste of time, but the point is that being unable to achieve zero covid is a deliberate policy choice and not an inherent property of the virus.

Whether you would have been able to maintain public support for lockdowns in Australia and drive covid cases to zero if there was a unified national goal to do so and ongoing federal support for this initiative is a question I admit I don't know the answer to, but the Melbourne experience is not in and of itself convincing evidence this could not happen.

People may also be more open to the idea of spending months in hard lockdown if they are presented with the alternative of spending years in intermittent lockdowns, which nobody has convincingly managed to avoid as of yet but politicians are trying desperately to avoid saying is a reasonable expectation now.

ModernMajorGeneral fucked around with this message at 10:05 on Dec 30, 2021

Suzera
Oct 6, 2021

This spell rocks. It'll pop you right out of that funk.
Re cases being decoupled from severe outcomes or deaths in the UK it still very much looks like deaths go up when cases do etc in a linearish fashion just at a small fraction of the rate before the vaccination program. It would be really weird if you had the most deaths from the lowest case counts and vice versa. It seems like a perfectly fine basic expectation that 10x the cases between two points post vaccination drive would result in something resembling 10x the severe outcomes for the respective variants at those two points in time given that the vaccination drive which led to the shift in cfr is mostly complete between those two points.

Also that people can still access medical care, but I think that's aside from the point being made in this case.

E: Also that testing infrastructure doesn't get overrun. Basically aside from any systemic limitation that is not occurring during the timeframe.

Suzera fucked around with this message at 10:08 on Dec 30, 2021

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*

ModernMajorGeneral posted:

The lesson of the Melbourne lockdown is not that it's impossible to reach zero covid, it's that it's impossible to reach zero covid cases when your national government and the neighbouring largest and most influential state are constantly saying zero covid is impossible and pursuing a policy of allowing widespread transmission. To the extent that this is not going to change I agree that further lockdown and trying to pursue covid zero is a waste of time.

Whether you would have been able to maintain public support for lockdowns in Australia and drive covid cases to zero if there was a unified national goal to do so and ongoing federal support for this initiative is a question I admit I don't know the answer to, but the Melbourne experience is not in and of itself convincing evidence this could not happen.

People may also be more open to the idea of spending months in hard lockdown if they are presented with the alternative of spending years in intermittent lockdowns, which nobody has convincingly managed to avoid as of yet but politicians are trying desperately to avoid saying is a reasonable expectation now.

We'll see how WA goes with the latest outbreak, daily cases have gone from 1->5->1->1->0->2->1, it's possible we'll handle this outbreak like the last few.

freebooter posted:

Are you the guy who got the McGowan tattoo

i got tattoos of NSW and Victoria on each rear end cheek and when i need to remove some poo poo it opens up

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

ModernMajorGeneral posted:

The lesson of the Melbourne lockdown is not that it's impossible to reach zero covid, it's that it's impossible to reach zero covid cases when your national government and the neighbouring largest and most influential state are constantly saying zero covid is impossible and pursuing a policy of allowing widespread transmission.

This didn't happen. Neither state nor federal govts abandoned "no community transmission" overnight, they did it over a course of weeks as it became clear that we were throwing everything at the wall (even if NSW had to be dragged into doing so, they did it eventually) and the playbook wasn't working anymore. I remember it distinctly because it was a very upsetting and distressing period of my life! It sucked real hard to slowly realise that elimination was no longer viable!

Lockdowns didn't stop working because of any particular decisions state or federal govts made. They stopped working because Delta is way more infectious. A thread full of people who are happy to spend their time scrolling through pre-prints to immediately declare that this or that new variant is more infectious and more deadly should also be able to understand that when a variant is more infectious, stuff that worked before to contain it won't work as well this time! The cops picking their noses and the taxi drivers with masks around their chins and the security guards outside the hospital gathering around to watch a video on their mate's phone and the people breaking the 5km rule to go see their elderly parents - these were all happening in the 2020 lockdown just as much as 2021. The difference is the virus was more infectious and we no longer had that margin of error.

quote:

People may also be more open to the idea of spending months in hard lockdown if they are presented with the alternative of spending years in intermittent lockdowns, which nobody has convincingly managed to avoid as of yet but politicians are trying desperately to avoid saying is a reasonable expectation now.

COVID-zero does equal intermittent lockdowns, though. Forever. Australia's not North Korea and we can't entirely seal our borders. Systems are fallible, humans are humans, and it will leak in all the time. Whether we like it or not, people are not going to accept a constant sword of Damocles hanging over their heads just to avoid a virus which the vast majority of people are well-protected against (and that's before even going into having permanently sealed borders in a country where a quarter of the people were born overseas).

crepeface posted:

We'll see how WA goes with the latest outbreak, daily cases have gone from 1->5->1->1->0->2->1, it's possible we'll handle this outbreak like the last few.

Does the fact that the Western Australian government itself does not consider COVID-zero to be a desirable or viable (or both) plan in the long-term give you pause, or nah

crepeface posted:

i got tattoos of NSW and Victoria on each rear end cheek and when i need to remove some poo poo it opens up

McGowan doesn't seem like the kind of guy who'd be into that, more of a Merkel thing

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*

freebooter posted:

Does the fact that the Western Australian government itself does not consider COVID-zero to be a desirable or viable (or both) plan in the long-term give you pause, or nah

it's only dumbshit idiots think it's a binary choice between covid zero and bending over and goatse ~opening up~

hoping that seeing the rest of australia turn into the LCL from the hit japanese animated show neon genesis evangelion gives MM the mandate to delay the border opening and/or implement the restrictions necessary for us not to drown.

freebooter posted:

McGowan doesn't seem like the kind of guy who'd be into that, more of a Merkel thing

it's for you

your posts

ModernMajorGeneral
Jun 25, 2010

freebooter posted:

This didn't happen. Neither state nor federal govts abandoned "no community transmission" overnight, they did it over a course of weeks as it became clear that we were throwing everything at the wall (even if NSW had to be dragged into doing so, they did it eventually) and the playbook wasn't working anymore. I remember it distinctly because it was a very upsetting and distressing period of my life! It sucked real hard to slowly realise that elimination was no longer viable!

I don't really know what to tell you if you think our federal government decision making was driven by reasoned analysis of what could practicably be achieved with the available policies.

quote:

Lockdowns didn't stop working because of any particular decisions state or federal govts made. They stopped working because Delta is way more infectious. A thread full of people who are happy to spend their time scrolling through pre-prints to immediately declare that this or that new variant is more infectious and more deadly should also be able to understand that when a variant is more infectious, stuff that worked before to contain it won't work as well this time! The cops picking their noses and the taxi drivers with masks around their chins and the security guards outside the hospital gathering around to watch a video on their mate's phone and the people breaking the 5km rule to go see their elderly parents - these were all happening in the 2020 lockdown just as much as 2021. The difference is the virus was more infectious and we no longer had that margin of error.

This is wrong and makes no sense. Lockdowns worked several times to contain Delta outbreaks. The most recent Melbourne lockdown which failed to drive cases down to zero did not work in part because there were more people doing these rule breaking activities than in 2020. (https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/movement-levels-in-victoria-reach-highest-in-lockdown-20210819-p58k5t.html). Don't you keep saying that lockdowns can't work any more because of fatigue? Do you seriously think that people were following the rules just as well in 2021 than in 2020?

You might argue that this is another aspect of why lockdowns don't work but compliance and fatigue can be influenced by state and federal government decisions.

quote:

COVID-zero does equal intermittent lockdowns, though. Forever. Australia's not North Korea and we can't entirely seal our borders. Systems are fallible, humans are humans, and it will leak in all the time. Whether we like it or not, people are not going to accept a constant sword of Damocles hanging over their heads just to avoid a virus which the vast majority of people are well-protected against (and that's before even going into having permanently sealed borders in a country where a quarter of the people were born overseas).

Every policy requires some mixture of lockdowns, restrictions and killing people, and you have to decide how much of each you want. You can spend a long time in weaker restrictions and softer lockdowns, a shorter time in hard lockdowns or less time in either and kill a bunch more people.

I'm not a die hard defender of hard lockdowns and covid zero - I've largely given up on this and would live with some ongoing restrictions (I think there would still be soft lockdowns), but people (and governments) need to be honest about what is going to happen based on the experience of every other country.

ModernMajorGeneral fucked around with this message at 10:55 on Dec 30, 2021

Hashy
Nov 20, 2005

[very intelligently] the answer to the mortal threat of a deadly pandemic virus is to let society churn on in the exact same model and endure wave after wave of it until every healthcare worker has either died or quit

UCS Hellmaker
Mar 29, 2008
Toilet Rascal

Hashy posted:

[very intelligently] the answer to the mortal threat of a deadly pandemic virus is to let society churn on in the exact same model and endure wave after wave of it until every healthcare worker has either died or quit

Dude your making a shitpost but EMS has seen extreme high rates of suicide in the last year, healthcare has a whole has.

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

UCS Hellmaker posted:

Dude your making a shitpost but EMS has seen extreme high rates of suicide in the last year, healthcare has a whole has.

yeah uh

what happens when healthcare is in such a state that every single hcw is either burnt out, driven out by the crushing nature of the job, or dead/disabled from the job?

like, can there be a point at whcih the industry collapses because no one wants to work anymore because working is literal hell?

Suzera
Oct 6, 2021

This spell rocks. It'll pop you right out of that funk.
Maybe I'm missing something, but all three of you seem to be angrily agreeing that HCW are burning out/dying and that this is a bad thing and is already a serious problem and it's still set to get much worse.

Suzera fucked around with this message at 11:36 on Dec 30, 2021

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

dwarf74 posted:

Why are we suddenly trusting antivax cops to enforce restrictions they don't think will work, to control the spread of a disease they don't think exists?

Why are we suddenly trusting cops at all?

I think it's a mistake to assume the people pushing this are the same as the ACAB crowd.

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crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*
lol yeah

i posted this in the other thread but the /r/nursing subreddit has been a real trip for the past two years

Well, it finally happened. A patient coded in the waiting room

quote:

Walked into the ER for chest pain and shortness of breath, like everyone else. And like just about everyone else his vitals were absolutely fine, no acute distress, EKG NSR, take a seat and we’ll call you in 6-8 hours.

Came over to the triage desk a few hours later saying he didn’t feel well, and to quote my coworker, “he just slumped over and loving croaked.” CPR initiated, rushed to the trauma bay, never got him back.

10 hour waiting room time when I left tonight, and it got to 15+ hours last night. Unheard of at my level 2 trauma center. And this is the loving north east, we got hit hard in that first wave. We know how this goes. And we are now getting DEMOLISHED.

The ER is so clogged up with mildly symptomatic covid patients in the waiting room, and covid patients waiting for admission taking up all of our ER rooms, that there is almost no movement. The floors are full, so the ER is full, which means the waiting rooms are overflowing.

We’ve been on divert almost every day since Christmas Eve, and we’re still inundated with EMS as well - after all, if everyone’s on divert, no one’s on divert. The one joy I have left is seeing assholes who tried to use an ambulance ride to cut the line, only to be dropped off in the waiting room.

Everyone has quit or is quitting. Most to travel, a few because they just didn’t want to be a nurse anymore. Everyone is sick. Everyone’s family is all sick, and we are all terrified that we’re the reason. Over half of night shift called out tonight. There are no replacements.

… I’m back in the morning but I don’t think I have another external triage shift in me y’all.

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