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The assumption is that Tokayev can actually hold onto power, which remains iffy.
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Jan 5, 2022 20:25
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Are there ethno-racial tensions in Kazakhstan against Russians? Or is this something else (or bs).
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Jan 5, 2022 20:42
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Grape posted:Are there ethno-racial tensions in Kazakhstan against Russians? Or is this something else (or bs). Putin is the Lord Protector of all Slavs just like Erdogan is to all Turks (except Uighurs, those are bad Turks). Also I wouldn't pay too much attention to unsourced rumours on twitter, they will always exist and thinking about them makes you none the wiser.
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Jan 5, 2022 20:45
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Nenonen posted:Putin is the Lord Protector of all Slavs just like Erdogan is to all Turks (except Uighurs, those are bad Turks). I just mean is Kazakhstan's ethnic Russian population in some way insulated and apart from the grievances being expressed right now by the protestors? And is there some significant (I'm guessing post-colonial) bad vibes toward them from ethnic Kazakhs? Or maybe just the ones in that region?
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Jan 5, 2022 20:48
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Grape posted:I just mean is Kazakhstan's ethnic Russian population in some way insulated and apart from the grievances being expressed right now by the protestors? And is there some significant (I'm guessing post-colonial) bad vibes toward them from ethnic Kazakhs? Pretty sure they don't get different gas prices based on ethnicity.
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Jan 5, 2022 20:55
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Grape posted:I just mean is Kazakhstan's ethnic Russian population in some way insulated and apart from the grievances being expressed right now by the protestors? And is there some significant (I'm guessing post-colonial) bad vibes toward them from ethnic Kazakhs? As far as I know, there are no major tensions between ethnic Russians and Kazakhs in Kazakhstan. There are some tensions involving Caucasians (not in the American sense) or Chinese Muslims, but nothing between large ethnic groups, which all speak Russian more or less. A few jobs ago I had ~500 colleague office in Kazakhstan, and they were a really diverse bunch, whose greatest exhibition of intercultural conflict was Orthodox Russians ordering kebab takeout during Ramadan.
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Jan 5, 2022 20:56
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cinci zoo sniper posted:... whose greatest exhibition of intercultural conflict was Orthodox Russians ordering kebab takeout during Ramadan.
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Jan 5, 2022 20:58
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cinci zoo sniper posted:As far as I know, there are no major tensions between ethnic Russians and Kazakhs in Kazakhstan. There are some tensions involving Caucasians (not in the American sense) or Chinese Muslims, but nothing between large ethnic groups, which all speak Russian more or less. A few jobs ago I had ~500 colleague office in Kazakhstan, and they were a really diverse bunch, whose greatest exhibition of intercultural conflict was Orthodox Russians ordering kebab takeout during Ramadan. Yeah I don't think there's much to speak of now. But it is worth mentioning that Russians used to be the largest ethnic group in Kazakhstan from the 30s* until the fall of the Soviet Union, which prompted something like half of them to emigrate. So there might be something that's been going on and there's the general trend of Russia using Russian minorities abroad for political gain, so maybe if it were true one is looking at a loud minority within that group looking to try to leverage that somehow. *That's when the famine that killed some one and a half million people, about 90% of them ethnic Kazakhs, was.
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Jan 5, 2022 21:12
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Grape posted:Are there ethno-racial tensions in Kazakhstan against Russians? Or is this something else (or bs). none really that i've heard of. that hasn't been a source of unrest in the past (there were other, less dramatic protests over political issues earlier in the decade) and the political situation hasn't really allowed for regionalism a la Ukraine. IIRC there have been ethnic tensions related to arab and african immigrant workers in the oil fields because of perceived threats to kazakh women, but that's it. ethnic tensions in the region overall are more in the ferghana valley border clusterfuck (e.g. https://eurasianet.org/tempers-flaring-as-kyrgyzstan-tajikistan-come-to-deadly-blows) between local native ethnic groups, partly because it's a weird patchwork where borders go through population centers and partly because it actually has population density. Kazakhstan is a pretty sparsely-populated place, so https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1478766036476387328 is a bit misleading to look at because that deep red area has like, a city with a population >100k (~300k, slightly larger than toledo, ohio). Kazakhstan also has a pretty low % ethnic Russian population as far as ex-Soviet states go overall haven't really heard anything from reputable sources, and the account in question is (a) followed by none of the ones i know and (b) uh... quote:ZOKA so probably the same sort of nonsense tankietide account that suddenly discovered the existence of Belarus in 2020 to valiantly defend it against nefarious CIA forces on twitter
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Jan 5, 2022 21:25
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bs it is then, also predictably very very good leftist of them to immediately go for ethnic division Sudentenland type rumor mongering
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Jan 5, 2022 21:56
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#Nepismen indeed.
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Jan 5, 2022 22:14
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Can anyone recommend a good book or two about the history of Russian expansionism and influence in Central Asia? My focus as a historian has been on the Soviet nuclear forces and their weapons projects so this is a bit outside my area of expertise. I can speak and read Russian (not as fluently as I used to be able to, but it's been 10+ years since I was living there and studying at IMOP in St Petersburg) so Russian language sources are okay but I would prefer English ones if possible because I've always had trouble interpreting some cultural language differences due to Russian being my third language and I hate having to bother a friend to tell me what this phrase means.. Sometimes it ends up being an obscure phrase in Мат and I ask my friends to translate a new way for me to tell someone to gently caress their mother
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Jan 5, 2022 22:21
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Nenonen posted:Putin is the Lord Protector of all Slavs just like Erdogan is to all Turks (except Uighurs, those are bad Turks). How dare you attack native Russians defending themselves I should shoot you with a tokarev for defying the pan Slavic independence movement.
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Jan 5, 2022 22:24
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HonorableTB posted:Can anyone recommend a good book or two about the history of Russian expansionism and influence in Central Asia? My focus as a historian has been on the Soviet nuclear forces and their weapons projects so this is a bit outside my area of expertise. I can speak and read Russian (not as fluently as I used to be able to, but it's been 10+ years since I was living there and studying at IMOP in St Petersburg) so Russian language sources are okay but I would prefer English ones if possible because I've always had trouble interpreting some cultural language differences due to Russian being my third language and I hate having to bother a friend to tell me what this phrase means.. Sometimes it ends up being an obscure phrase in Мат and I ask my friends to translate a new way for me to tell someone to gently caress their mother The next set of books to go over would be The Russian Conquest of Central Asia: A Study in Imperial Expansion, 1814–1914 by Alex Morrison and Russia and Central Asia: Coexistence, Conquest, Convergence by Shoshana Keller.
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Jan 5, 2022 22:32
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HonorableTB posted:Can anyone recommend a good book or two about the history of Russian expansionism and influence in Central Asia? My focus as a historian has been on the Soviet nuclear forces and their weapons projects so this is a bit outside my area of expertise. I can speak and read Russian (not as fluently as I used to be able to, but it's been 10+ years since I was living there and studying at IMOP in St Petersburg) so Russian language sources are okay but I would prefer English ones if possible because I've always had trouble interpreting some cultural language differences due to Russian being my third language and I hate having to bother a friend to tell me what this phrase means.. Sometimes it ends up being an obscure phrase in Мат and I ask my friends to translate a new way for me to tell someone to gently caress their mother
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Jan 5, 2022 22:36
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Thank you both! I'll pick those up today
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Jan 5, 2022 22:37
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HonorableTB posted:Can anyone recommend a good book or two about the history of Russian expansionism and influence in Central Asia? My focus as a historian has been on the Soviet nuclear forces and their weapons projects so this is a bit outside my area of expertise. I can speak and read Russian (not as fluently as I used to be able to, but it's been 10+ years since I was living there and studying at IMOP in St Petersburg) so Russian language sources are okay but I would prefer English ones if possible because I've always had trouble interpreting some cultural language differences due to Russian being my third language and I hate having to bother a friend to tell me what this phrase means.. Sometimes it ends up being an obscure phrase in Мат and I ask my friends to translate a new way for me to tell someone to gently caress their mother Central Asia: A New History from the Imperial Conquests to the Present by Adeeb Khalid. Same authour as noted by mobby, but they got the order of his name wrong. This came out in 2021 and as far as I'm aware it largely incorporates what was in Making Uzbekistan (though somewhat summarized as this one also covers the period after WW2) and expands on it to cover the region as a whole, though still with a noted focus on Uzbekistan. For some more specific ones, in addition to Making Uzbekistan. Tribal Nation: The Making of Soviet Turkmenistan by Adrienne Lynn Edgar. The Hungry Steppe: Famine, Violence, and the Making of Soviet Kazakhstan by Sarah Cameron. Primarily about the 1929-1933 Kazakh famine, but also goes into some details about pre-Soviet Kazakhstan, the nature of nomadic pastoralism in Kazakhstan (and how it adapted and changed when encountered by mass slavic settlement of the Kazakh steppes starting in the late 19th century) as well as some specifics of early Soviet nationalities policy in Kazakhstan and how that and the famine essentially set the state for how Soviet Kazakhstan came to be defined. Randarkman fucked around with this message at 22:47 on Jan 5, 2022 |
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Jan 5, 2022 22:44
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Central Asian SSRs have really interesting, and in my opinion underexplored, histories of formation.
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Jan 5, 2022 22:59
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Someting, something, White Sun of the Desert? Also looks like "peacekeepers" may be coming.
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Jan 5, 2022 23:10
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https://www.lsm.lv/raksts/zinas/latvija/latvija-plano-sutit-ierocus-ukrainai.a437572/ Our defence minister has confirmed that Latvia shall supply Ukraine with arms and weapons systems.
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Jan 5, 2022 23:13
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https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1478843336630882308 Putin is dead set on grabbing any piece of the former Soviet Union he can.
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Jan 5, 2022 23:19
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I highly doubt that 100 peacekeepers they'll be able to deploy in a couple of days will do anything substantial there.
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Jan 5, 2022 23:32
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i very much regret not taking more courses from Adeeb Khalid, being a clueless babby undergrad who didn't think to take anything more than his Russia From 1917 course (very good in its own right, i just wish i'd taken his central asia course also). i'll agree that he's a bit dry of a writer, but Making Uzbekistan is one of those books that starts out slow laying out a lot of esoteric groundwork about social movements and major figures within them in the Emirate of Bukhara around the turn of the 20th century and then ramps the gently caress up once those people start trying to adapt their reform policies in the transition to Soviet power. i can't comment as much on Central Asia as i've only just started it, but im optimistic since it seems he's gotten better at writing for a general audience over time--Islam After Communism is worth reading for coverage of post-Soviet social development, but is profoundly dry, and probably (guessing--i read it a long while back before the others came out) easier read after the others, where the background material social movements are active events rather than something he wants you to understand to contextualize the present. Dark Shadows is a good journalistic work on modern Kazakhstan, covering the broader political situation, internal economic climate, and so on. Border Work examines current cross-border relations between communities and local officials in the Ferghana valley region. I forget if this goes into the background of why those borders are such a mess, though Making Uzbekistan definitely does. other books still on my to-read list: Speaking Soviet With An Accent, about Soviet cultural evangelism in the Kyrgyz SSR. The Hungry Steppe, about the early Kazakh SSR, collectivization, and resulting famine (with an SRB author interview). "The Touch of Civilization": Comparing American and Russian Internal Colonization (also with an SRB interview) about imperial Russian colonization of the Kazakhs in comparison with American colonization of Sioux lands. i bounced off this since i'm mostly interested in modern history and because comparative histories are a bit abstract, but i enjoyed the interview discussion and should return to it at some point.
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Jan 5, 2022 23:40
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OddObserver posted:Someting, something, White Sun of the Desert? i maintain that Kin-Dza-Dza is a stylized history of the Turkmen SSR
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Jan 5, 2022 23:42
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:How dare you attack native Russians defending themselves Do you take PutinCoin (PUT) as payment for the bullet? 
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Jan 5, 2022 23:45
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CMYK BLYAT! posted:i very much regret not taking more courses from Adeeb Khalid, being a clueless babby undergrad who didn't think to take anything more than his Russia From 1917 course (very good in its own right, i just wish i'd taken his central asia course also). i'll agree that he's a bit dry of a writer, but Making Uzbekistan is one of those books that starts out slow laying out a lot of esoteric groundwork about social movements and major figures within them in the Emirate of Bukhara around the turn of the 20th century and then ramps the gently caress up once those people start trying to adapt their reform policies in the transition to Soviet power. i can't comment as much on Central Asia as i've only just started it, but im optimistic since it seems he's gotten better at writing for a general audience over time--Islam After Communism is worth reading for coverage of post-Soviet social development, but is profoundly dry, and probably (guessing--i read it a long while back before the others came out) easier read after the others, where the background material social movements are active events rather than something he wants you to understand to contextualize the present. THANK YOU!
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Jan 5, 2022 23:59
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Nenonen posted:It's not a matter of who wins, but who survives. Russia is not going to use nukes and they would have to mobilize a lot more troops to fully occupy major parts of Ukraine. Russia doesn't have the element of surprise like they did in Georgia, so the possibility of substantial casualties is also real. My question is, do the Russian people support Putin's goals enough that it couldn't backfire on him if things don't go rosy? And if a military operation doesn't topple Ukrainian government or the people's resistance to Russian invaders then what? It seems that the majority of the population doesn't trust Putin but they're kind of stuck with him but I wonder if the economic sanctions would be enough to piss of all of the wealthy Russians especially those that do international business. I remember reading earlier one of Putin's goal would be to merely take back Eastern Ukraine and turn the remaining parts into a permeant failed or destroyed State similar to Syria.
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Jan 6, 2022 00:37
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CMYK BLYAT! posted:ethnic tensions in the region overall are more in the ferghana valley border clusterfuck
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Jan 6, 2022 00:44
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https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/1478818987031080963
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Jan 6, 2022 00:56
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1478843336630882308 There is some real irony here considering the CSTO sat on its hands when Armenia was all but attacked.
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Jan 6, 2022 01:45
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Randarkman posted:That's a lot of gunfire in that third video. That is a huge amount of gunfire 
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Jan 6, 2022 02:04
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:Putin is dead set on grabbing any piece of the former Soviet Union he can. this isn't really the case. Russia has more than enough resources of its own to propel a strong economy (even if in practice that means propel a mediocre economy that is heavily weighted in favor of people in power), and even if there's a strong desire to reclaim the international prestige of the Soviet Union as a world superpower, that's about international influence, not territory. there isn't some magical Russian influence counter that'd increment up if Russia spontaneously invade and annex Azerbaijan or whatever. simply reclaiming the territory of the Soviet Union is neither economically nor politically useful for Russia. Russia does have a definite interest in maintaining friendly, or at least neutral (sometimes unwillingly neutral) states on its borders. im skeptical of how truly vital this is (something something fearful memories of napoleonic and nazi invasions are perhaps less relevant to your security policy when you command the world's second-largest nuclear triad arsenal), but whatever, it's how Russia acts in practice. "Russia moving on Kazakhstan" is a bit (a lot) of a hot take given that Tokayev requested it after Russia's initial statements saying that Kazakhstan should sort their own poo poo out. it is still unusual given that the CSTO hasn't really deployed troops in this capacity before, despite the previous member request being a much more clear cut "hello, we are under military attack by another state" (and a sorta-kinda-not-really NATO-aligned state at that!). analysis in one of the linked pieces there that Russia didn't see the recent Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict as a significant enough threat to its security to intervene militarily sounds true enough, but it's not really immediately clear how events in Kazakhstan would be either, since gently caress knows who'd be in power if the current government falls. i suppose that what little i've read about Ablyazov in the last few days suggests he wouldn't be best buds with Russia, and it makes sense that Russia would want to nip the potential for problems there in the bud, whereas worst case the outcome in Armenia would be that it remains a client state under the same regime with less territory. Budzilla posted:The borders in the Ferghana Valley are working exactly as they are intended tyvm! the books (specifically Border Work and Making Uzbekistan, probably also Central Asia) in my last post go into this quite a lot! nobody expected the borders in the region to matter since they were functionally irrelevant in the USSR, or at least certainly nothing near the significance of a national border. they certainly weren't intended to result in ethnic tensions, since everyone was Soviet, and druzhby narodov itd. the pre-Soviet history of the region meant that it was already a mess of patchwork identities that didn't really lend itself well to the delineation of well-defined nations. Soviet ethnographers and the officials they informed tried to haphazardly sort out some combination of settled/nomad, Turkic/Persianate/Turkic but with Persian characteristics in the literary tradition language, and religous history into Soviet political subdivisions, while dealing with local political elites bickering over what SSR should include what (there's a particularly amusing bit where the Kazakhs essentially try to declare that all the Uzbeks are actually just Kazakhs, while the Uzbeks are trying to say that all the Tajiks are Uzbeks, except for the ones way up in the mountains--those are, in fact, Tajiks). the resulting borders nowadays are nonsense, but at the time they were drawn it was essentially officials throwing up their hands in despair and saying "fine, whatever, this city can be in the Uzbek SSR and this one can be in the Kyrgyz SSR, it's the same country anyway and we're turning the entire region into a giant cotton plantation regardless" rather than some nefarious plot to engender ethnic strife.
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Jan 6, 2022 02:05
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Kazakiya stronj
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Jan 6, 2022 02:10
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CMYK BLYAT! posted:the books (specifically Border Work and Making Uzbekistan, probably also Central Asia) in my last post go into this quite a lot! nobody expected the borders in the region to matter since they were functionally irrelevant in the USSR, or at least certainly nothing near the significance of a national border. they certainly weren't intended to result in ethnic tensions, since everyone was Soviet, and druzhby narodov itd. the pre-Soviet history of the region meant that it was already a mess of patchwork identities that didn't really lend itself well to the delineation of well-defined nations. Yeah Khalid's Central Asia goes into it, as I said it incorporates much of what was in Making Uzbekistan (though much of it in shortened form since it's only about 100-150 pages longer). And yeah, the borders are what they are largely because of the pecularities of Soviet nationality policy in general which more or less required homogenous national territories, because within each territory you'd have a titular nationality, who would be favored in terms of local employment and the use of their language and promotion of their culture, with too much of an ethnic patchwork that policy becomes very difficult (and the authorities were not keen on having to deal with multiple local varieties of communist party or clear divisions within the communist party, though in practice they would tolerate a significant Russian/Ukrainian/"European" contingent provided it did not completely marginalize the native component). So the goal was ethnically homogenous national territories. Unlike in Eastern Europe after 1945 this largley wasn't done by way of ethnic cleansing and population transfers, but, as noted, by drawing the borders to get as much homogeneity as was possible (and doing stuff like largely defining Persian-speaking city-dwellers as not Tajiks, which they more or less were in favor of, notably many of those had been prominent figures in Turkism and related national projects in Turkestan prior to this). This inolved the active (and often volatile) participation of local/ethnic party organizations as well as academics (there were some orientalists for instance who were pretty crucial in giving historical weight to the arguments of the Tajiks), and not just arbitrary decisions from above, though post-independence the borders are indeed a mess, and the borders weren't completely insignificant in the Soviet Union as well, your nationality (which was tied to territory) mattered quite a lot in the Soviet system for things such as employment, residence, education and general freedom of movement.
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Jan 6, 2022 10:18
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:I remember reading earlier one of Putin's goal would be to merely take back Eastern Ukraine and turn the remaining parts into a permeant failed or destroyed State similar to Syria. This has already happened in the opposite way in that Russia created failed bandit states from which everyone that could escaped. One of the reasons people are predicting fierce resistance and millions of refugees is that no one wants to become the next DNR/LNR which are not hypotheticals but actual existing examples of what awaits. "Merely take back eastern Ukraine" is not a good way to word occupying an area of 20 million people
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Jan 6, 2022 10:36
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Paladinus posted:I highly doubt that 100 peacekeepers they'll be able to deploy in a couple of days will do anything substantial there. When you send a 100 peacekeepers somewhere their job is not to fight, it's to stand very visibly in front of the guy you support, just to make it crystal clear to the other side what's going to happen if they try to attack him. 100 peacekeepers can totally decide this conflict, if only by deterring open acts of agression.
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Jan 6, 2022 10:49
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Seems like (local?) soldiers are retaking (or already retook) Almaty https://twitter.com/den_kazansky/status/1478989281301516291
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Jan 6, 2022 11:08
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Dwesa posted:Seems like (local?) soldiers are retaking (or already retook) Almaty The tweet alleges Russian Federation boots on the ground.
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Jan 6, 2022 11:16
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According to BBC, the internet is back up again. And Russians have just arrived, it would impossible for them to participate in the operation already, not to mention that the video appears to be from even before they arrived.
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Jan 6, 2022 13:12
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My friend in Almaty is talking about CSTO troops coming in and a lot of gunfire in the city center
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Jan 6, 2022 14:07
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