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Which horse film is your favorite? This poll is closed. |
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| Black Beauty |
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2 | 1.06% |
| A Talking Pony!?! |
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4 | 2.13% |
| Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor |
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117 | 62.23% |
| War Horse |
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11 | 5.85% |
| Mr. Hands |
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54 | 28.72% |
| Total: | 188 votes | ||
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Good Soldier Svejk posted:If you go by the fact that it made vaccinated people sick instead of nothing at all it's actually not "less severe". That's a worse outcome for vaccinated people than delta or alpha. The baseline isn't "not dying" for vaccinated people it's not getting sick like 90% of the time. It seems like you're conflating the ability of Omicron to evade the protection imparted by vaccines with the severity of symptoms it causes, which to me appears to be two different things. Is there a connection there? Not being a contrarian "let's all immediately start spitting in each other's mouths" shithead here-- I've been masking up and distancing since April 2020 and have no intention of stopping any time soon, I'm genuinely curious.
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Jan 6, 2022 01:08
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an owls casket posted:It seems like you're conflating the ability of Omicron to evade the protection imparted by vaccines with the severity of symptoms it causes, which to me appears to be two different things. Is there a connection there? Not being a contrarian "let's all immediately start spitting in each other's mouths" shithead here-- I've been masking up and distancing since April 2020 and have no intention of stopping any time soon, I'm genuinely curious. I think the overwhelming answer has been "who the gently caress knows."
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Jan 6, 2022 01:12
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an owls casket posted:It seems like you're conflating the ability of Omicron to evade the protection imparted by vaccines with the severity of symptoms it causes, which to me appears to be two different things. Is there a connection there? Not being a contrarian "let's all immediately start spitting in each other's mouths" shithead here-- I've been masking up and distancing since April 2020 and have no intention of stopping any time soon, I'm genuinely curious. The problem is we are conflating the symptoms we are seeing in healthy triple-vaccinated people in the current wave to the symptoms of unvaccinated people in the first wave and saying "this is less severe" It doesn't seem like it's as bad but it's also attacked bodies that are ready to defend against it and to be blunt a lot of old and ill people are removed from that set of people getting sick now that were in it before. If we gave alpha and omicron the exact same population starting at zero with no antibodies/vaccines/whatever, we do not objectively know that omicron would be any less devastating to it. We do not have a control
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Jan 6, 2022 01:15
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https://twitter.com/saletan/status/1478868795880091650 If it's not too technical, what kinds of factors affect whether a virus is better at infecting one kind of tissue over another, in this case deep lung tissue vs bronchial tissue? zoux fucked around with this message at 01:21 on Jan 6, 2022 |
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Jan 6, 2022 01:18
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Good Soldier Svejk posted:The problem is we are conflating the symptoms we are seeing in healthy triple-vaccinated people in the current wave South Africa is sadly only 26% vaccinated.
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Jan 6, 2022 01:19
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James Garfield posted:South Africa is sadly only 26% vaccinated. The article I posted on that page back had it as "44.3% of the adult South African population was vaccinated as of December 2021 and >50% of the population has had previous exposure to SARS-CoV-26" Regardless of where it lands on vaccination the prior exposure counts for something, too.
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Jan 6, 2022 01:22
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MadJackal posted:The circle of physicians I regularly talk to is pretty small, just friends from residency at this point, but we're all floored at just how disconnected every big leadership organizations' recommendations have become. I would have thought at the very least that it would be somewhat more stupid to tell doctors to risk death for their jobs since they'd understand the implications of those instructions more so it wouldn't be as easy to get away with, but I guess that was overly optimistic Jesus
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Jan 6, 2022 01:22
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/saletan/status/1478868795880091650 The linked story is entirely nature promoting preprints that, at a quick glance, are all going into its own journals.
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Jan 6, 2022 01:30
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droll posted:Can you please post your sources that omicron is causing more people to die than prior types? And what does this have to do with asking another poster about what would meet their definition of scientific consensus for this discussion? I'm using the same standard as the poster who brought up scientific concensus in the first place; just saying things confidently.
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Jan 6, 2022 01:31
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Discendo Vox posted:The linked story is entirely nature promoting preprints that, at a quick glance, are all going into its own journals. It also has the answer anyway. (Also I thought nature was a reputable journal?) quote:These experiments also identified a plausible player in the difference: a protein called TMPRSS2, which protrudes from the surfaces of many cells in the lungs and other organs, but is notably absent from the surfaces of most nose and throat cells. I shall read more diligently in the future!
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Jan 6, 2022 01:36
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Good Soldier Svejk posted:Literally all the people flouting "less severe" are just comparing general outcomes and not breaking it down to compare unvaccinated, vaccinated, and boosted outcomes between alpha/delta and omicron (at least not that I can find) quote:Technical briefing: Update on hospitalisation and vaccine effectiveness for Omicron VOC-21NOV-01 (B.1.1.529) There is also this one from Canada: quote:Early estimates of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant severity based on a matched cohort study, Ontario, Canada
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Jan 6, 2022 01:37
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zoux posted:It also has the answer anyway. (Also I thought nature was a reputable journal?) There are no "reputable journals" such that their publications can be taken at face value, let alone their promotional press arm, let alone articles that haven't finished peer review. The giant multifield umbrella journals also have particularly severe inconsistencies in the quality of their reviews.
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Jan 6, 2022 01:39
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Wang Commander posted:People have already had omicron twice anecdotally I think, if anyone has data on that it'd be great but I've been hearing of people getting covid twice separately just since Omicron Youth Decay posted:I know this got probated but just to be clear, Omicron was identified in late November 2021. There hasn't been enough time for people to have gotten the same variant twice. I also know this got probated and I can't show you data but our university medical director told us this morning on the weekly Covid call that a fully vaccinated person at our university got infected in early December, recovered, and then was reinfected this week. She did not specify if it was O -> O or D -> O, but it was in the context of someone asking if Omicron infection provided broader protection against reinfection. I rewatched the recording just now just to make sure Yes, they know that people can have persistent infections, and she clarified that these were two distinct infections. We are PCR testing everyone twice a week, and I presume they have developed the techniques to distinguish infections.
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Jan 6, 2022 01:46
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Good Soldier Svejk posted:If we gave alpha and omicron the exact same population starting at zero with no antibodies/vaccines/whatever, we do not objectively know that omicron would be any less devastating to it. We do not have a control
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Jan 6, 2022 01:48
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Worthless anecdotal from BC here but my friends a nurse and in the last three months, every single patient she saw in the ICU with covid were unvaccinated, and out of everyone who was intubed, all of them died aside from one. Age was from 40 - 65. Hopefully we'll run out of unvaccinated people eventually as we have a high vaccination rate. The ICU still is about half what it was at the Delta peak but the big problem is that so many health care workers are having to isolate due to a positive exposure which means there is more of a staff shortage than usual
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Jan 6, 2022 01:55
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Gripweed posted:No it's not, it's too early for scientific concensus. And even if it was, there is definitely no scientific consensus saying that the next variant will be milder. Yeah I'm seeing a lot of this from friends and coworkers. The idea that it's going to just get milder and milder till it's not an issue. There's no guarantee of that. There's no guarantee that thanks to the incredible level of infectious, the virus doesn't mutate into something that's just as transmissible but also more deadly.
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Jan 6, 2022 02:07
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NoDamage posted:A couple of recent studies have attempted to do this. I posted this one from the UK a few pages back: The UK one is pretty compelling. I'll admit it's been more than a few years since my last stats class and I don't read scientific papers recreationally but nothing jumped out as blaringly wrong as a layman. The only wrinkle is I'd like to see the demographic data broken out more granularly I'm sure there are ways to further nitpick it (like more people are testing for omicron out of fear that it is more infectious/for travel so you end up with what appears to be less severe cases whereas with delta you were only getting tested if you were feeling sick and if you were sick you were already hosed) but who knows? On the face it seems to support the notion so that's good news if more data/results follow it as the truth The Canada one is doing something funky with their demographic data comparing overall outcomes of a 44% unvaccinated delta sample set with a 17% unvaccinated omicron sample set. That seems a little sloppy to draw conclusions from. NoDamage posted:I mean, ultimately what does it even matter? The important thing is that it is less severe and less likely to result in hospitalization/death, I don't see why we should really care whether that's the result of vaccination, prior infection, or the most vulnerable already having died to previous variants. From a practical perspective I suppose not much. It's already out and it's going to do what it's going to do and it seems like knowing more precisely how hosed we are is not going to result in practical changes from anyone high enough up on the ladder to do anything about it. I do hope when it plays out that the people saying "it's less severe" are right and fewer people end up dead or maimed than it's looking like might right now. As much as I let myself seem to revel in the ineptitude of national and global response to mass death as a coping mechanism for the daily horror we are experiencing, I much prefer people not dying and society not collapsing (idealist/bleeding-heart as that might make me). I guess maybe reading the tea leaves of the data snippets we are fed gives a certain sense of control or understanding where there really isn't any? Trying to make sense of the chaos
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Jan 6, 2022 02:20
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Solkanar512 posted:What I'm curious about in particular are the dynamics between those evaluating exemption cases, the national government and the national tennis authority. If he got COVID-19 in the past six months, he should be allowed to stay, but if he didn't then why was he given an exemption in the first place? Do folks domestically trust this process to be fair? Is Tennis big enough (like say FIFA or the IOC) domestically to put their thumb on the scales? He was given an exemption by Tennis Australia to play in the Australian Open, which is entirely different from being given a visa by the federal government to enter Australia. I strongly suspect that if the PM wasn't in deep poo poo from the testing system collapsing around us and badly in need of a distraction, he would've been waved through, but it's still very very funny. (Re: fairness, given how many actual Australians have found it difficult to return home during the pandemic, there is zero appetite for rich anti-vax sports stars to be given special treatment)
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Jan 6, 2022 02:27
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droll posted:Can you please post your sources that omicron is causing more people to die than prior types? And what does this have to do with asking another poster about what would meet their definition of scientific consensus for this discussion? Can you please post your source for claiming that he said that?
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Jan 6, 2022 02:28
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droll posted:Can you please post your sources that omicron is causing more people to die than prior types? And what does this have to do with asking another poster about what would meet their definition of scientific consensus for this discussion? You're asking for data that is too vague and that's not what that poster said. In terms of per capita deaths, we currently have more people dying than countries like the UK and France that are beating us in cases.  A lower percentage than previous waves, maybe, but mild is a relative term and it leads people to relax their NPI's in the face of an incredibly infectious variant. And the several countries are seeing more deaths than during their Delta peak(but not their initial peak).
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Jan 6, 2022 02:35
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freebooter posted:He was given an exemption by Tennis Australia to play in the Australian Open, which is entirely different from being given a visa by the federal government to enter Australia. I strongly suspect that if the PM wasn't in deep poo poo from the testing system collapsing around us and badly in need of a distraction, he would've been waved through, but it's still very very funny. Wait, Tennis Australia can just exempt people on their own?
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Jan 6, 2022 03:11
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Hospital newsletter states we have a 30% mortality of all unvaxxed and partial vaxxed admits. Last month was the highest rates of mortality. Last month no deaths of vaccinated plus booster, and no confirmed omicron deaths in ICU with booster. Ancedotal but it's data and some news.
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Jan 6, 2022 03:19
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Interesting study on Omicron throat vs nose https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1478798030618906632
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Jan 6, 2022 03:40
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Youth Decay posted:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articles/PMC8702434/ I don’t think anyone responded to this, but seems fascinating and apropos to the discussion of omicron’s “innate” severity (distinct from transmissibility and ultimate damage to society at large). Haven’t had a chance to read the article yet and probably won’t really be qualified to critically evaluate it anyway, but thought I’d dredge it back up in case others want to comment.
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Jan 6, 2022 03:46
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Petey posted:Interesting study on Omicron throat vs nose I've been swabbing my rear end in a top hat, I wish I'd seen this earlier.
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Jan 6, 2022 03:55
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smoobles posted:I've been swabbing my rear end in a top hat, I wish I'd seen this earlier.
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Jan 6, 2022 04:02
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Bearinabox posted:Wow. I'd love to hear what bothered you about these. Be specific.
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Jan 6, 2022 04:22
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Judakel posted:I'd love to hear what bothered you about these. Be specific. He's permabanned dude
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Jan 6, 2022 04:37
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Solkanar512 posted:Wait, Tennis Australia can just exempt people on their own? They made it a requirement that players (and coaches, staff etc I assume) need to be vaccinated to participate in the Australian Open, irrespective of whether they're flying in from overseas or if they live down the road in Richmond. Djokovic was then exempted from that requirement. But you must also be vaccinated to enter Australia, which was the hurdle Djokovic failed. edit - you also have to be vaccinated to attend a stadium under Victorian rules whether you're a player or a spectator, but I assume the state government agreed with Tennis Australia to similarly exempt him because they're desperate to have their precious Open go ahead freebooter fucked around with this message at 04:43 on Jan 6, 2022 |
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Jan 6, 2022 04:40
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UCS Hellmaker posted:He's permabanned dude Well, I was legitimately curious, so I guess I won't ever know.
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Jan 6, 2022 04:48
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Judakel posted:Well, I was legitimately curious, so I guess I won't ever know. Not perma'd from the forums but forumbanned user CelestialScribe.
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Jan 6, 2022 06:37
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/saletan/status/1478868795880091650 I've come into a couple situations where I have had people that would soundly be positive for covid who however are testing negative. A friend's baby and wife had covid and he consistently tested negative even though he had all symptoms. This was with Abbott binax. Another person had a spouse with covid and they did not isolate early enough so he definitely has covid exhibiting making GBS threads brains out, general weakness, testing negative. Can anyone explain this? Other than it not attacking the lungs means your concentration is low enough not to be detected? I've heard that you can swab your throat to get a more accurate positive/negative. Can anyone clarify this as true or false?
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Jan 6, 2022 07:08
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:I've come into a couple situations where I have had people that would soundly be positive for covid who however are testing negative. People online are reporting that swabbing their throats with an antigen test might produce a positive result when a nose swab doesn't, but the FDA does not currently recommend this and says instead the tests should be used as directed.
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Jan 6, 2022 07:55
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not sure if you're allowed to quote the other thread? but here's something i found:crepeface posted:interesting graph on the effect on volume and R_eff with NPIs: fake edit: hmm, in hindsight, there always seems to be a drop as restrictions are eased. people taking more care during the initial change?
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Jan 6, 2022 08:44
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Discendo Vox posted:There are no "reputable journals" such that their publications can be taken at face value, let alone their promotional press arm, let alone articles that haven't finished peer review. The giant multifield umbrella journals also have particularly severe inconsistencies in the quality of their reviews. Indeed. Let's not forget the Lancet had former doctor Andrew Wakefield's paper up for 10 years before retracting it. The paper he was paid to write to make up a disease caused by the MMR jab that led to autism. Mr Cuddles fucked around with this message at 10:51 on Jan 6, 2022 |
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Jan 6, 2022 10:28
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Well, I've got something: low-grade fever (99.7), chills, fatigue, diarrhea, nasal congestion, sore throat, and general inability to sleep. I haven't lost my sense of smell or taste, though. I'm triple-vaxxed (two Pfizer, one Moderna), but I didn't get a flu shot (tried twice and they were out both times; I guess I should've tried harder). So, not sure if I've got omicron or the flu. Good or bad idea to take some tylenol to treat some of these symptoms? Or is that too mild of a fever to bother?
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Jan 6, 2022 10:30
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if tylenol is paracetamol then yes, it's good for reducing fever and pain.
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Jan 6, 2022 10:51
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Eiba posted:So, I know "herd immunity via widespread infection" is a charged subject, but I'm honestly ignorant and curious here: shouldn't it now be a bit more achievable (if still stupid) than it was in 2020? It’s technically less achievable now than it was then, because the R0 of the variants in circulation now are so much higher, but that’s small potatoes to the change in our knowledge between then and now. We now know that the immunity durability to SARS‐CoV‐2 is more akin to that of the common cold coronaviruses than to SARS‐CoV and MERS‐CoV. We have achieved vaccines, but we have learned that they are very much not sterilizing and that the reduction in transmission they can give us is not enough to drive Reff below unity given pre‐pandemic pattern of contact. Future pharmaceutical developments may change this, including nasal or inhalable vaccines, conserved or multivalent vaccines (targeting multiple variants of concern), and perhaps prophylactic antivirials, but no combination of the pharmaceutical tools we have now, plus infection‐acquired immunity, are sufficient to achieve herd immunity. We need non‐pharmaceutical interventions.  Herd immunity was once “maybe, but a lot of people would be killed or disabled before we got there”.* At the present time, it is a firm ”no”. We do not yet have what it would take to achieve, and we now know that we didn’t have it in 2020, either. *Technically this still wouldn’t have been herd immunity, but at best an endemicity that many people could live with. It would surve in the wild primarily by circulating in groups of young children who were naive from birth, and relatively rarely it would meet and kill an older person who had escaped infection in the epidemic waves. Platystemon fucked around with this message at 11:22 on Jan 6, 2022 |
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Jan 6, 2022 11:00
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Platystemon posted:
"below *zero*"? 
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Jan 6, 2022 11:20
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Rust Martialis posted:"below *zero*"? “Yeah, man, that’s how a natural vaccine works.”  .Mistake noted.
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Jan 6, 2022 11:22
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