[Asia/Oceania] Yellen says she hopes China wont mount retaliation against any steps Washington takes

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [Asia/Oceania] Yellen says she hopes China wont mount retaliation against any steps Washington takes

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(Thread IKs: fart simpson)

Man Musk: Jan 13, 2010

fits my needs posted:

https://twitter.com/AJEnglish/status/1479132578837897222?s=20

NATO-RU talks next week get hype :woop:

https://www.economist.com/asia/kazakhstans-president-vows-to-cling-on-despite-nationwide-protests/21807017 posted:

... The regime�s first response was to reach for the carrot. On January 4th it promised to cut the price of fuel to below its pre-protest level. The president also ordered officials to regulate prices for six months, in effect reintroducing subsidies. The cabinet was dismissed, in line with demonstrators� demands. Yet that seemed only to embolden the protesters. Using makeshift weapons, they battled police, stormed Almaty�s city hall and torched other official buildings in several cities and toppled a statue of Mr Nazarbayev in one town.

Next, the stick. Hundreds of people have been arrested. On January 6th Mr Tokayev extended nationwide a limited state of emergency declared the previous day. He also took control of the powerful Security Council from Mr Nazarbayev and fired Karim Masimov, the domestic intelligence chief, a stalwart ally of the old man, to impose his own control over security forces. Internet disruptions have been reported across the country. As dawn broke the country was under a total news blackout: all Kazakhstan-based websites were inaccessible and the usual social-media chatter had fallen silent.

In the hours before, Mr Tokayev had said that he was launching an �anti-terrorist operation� to beat back rebels who had seized weapons from gun shops. Some 350 members of the security forces had been injured, according to the interior ministry. Shooting and looting broke out overnight in Almaty. Police were battling foreign-trained terrorists outside the city, he claimed. Commentators loyal to President Vladimir Putin have suggested that the West is trying to foment a colour revolution in Kazakhstan. The aim of this imaginary plot is supposedly to destabilise Russia as it prepares to talk to NATO about its threats to invade Ukraine.

As the situation deteriorated, Mr Tokayev took the dramatic step of requesting assistance �in overcoming this terrorist threat� from the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), a military alliance of six post-Soviet states formed in 1994. Nikol Pashinyan, the prime minister of Armenia, which currently chairs the CSTO, said that the bloc had decided to send peacekeeping forces �for a limited period, in order to stabilise and normalise the situation�. It is the first time that the CSTO has invoked Article 4 of its treaty, which covers threats to national security including supposed �foreign interference�.

Though the alliance has never before convened in a crisis, it conducted numerous joint exercises in the summer and autumn of last year, notes Rob Lee of King�s College London, partly in response to the steady collapse of Afghanistan, which shares a border with the bloc. �The CSTO�s rapid reaction forces should be better prepared to respond than normal�, he says. Russian paratroopers were arriving in Kazakhstan at the time of publication.

CSTO troops would be used to guard infrastructure, according to one Russian lawmaker, freeing up Kazakh forces for the bloodier work of crushing protesters. Mr Tokayev may also be hoping that Russia�s involvement will stiffen the spines of his security forces, reducing the likelihood of defections or a coup. But the decision to solicit outside help is a fateful step for the country. �Tokayev is throwing away Kazakhstan�s sovereignty by asking for Russians to intervene,� says Jen Brick Murtazashvili of the University of Pittsburgh.

Another complication is that many of the Russian military units tasked with responding to crises in Central Asia are currently sitting near the Ukrainian border, far from their home bases, as part of a Kremlin effort to intimidate a neighbour and squeeze NATO. Vladimir Putin, Russia�s president, caught by surprise by events on his southern flank, might face a choice between diverting forces from the west, thus diluting his ability to make credible threats before crucial talks with America and NATO next week, or limiting the scope of any assistance to Kazakhstan.

# ? Jan 6, 2022 22:02

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# ? May 29, 2024 17:38

Wraith of J.O.I.: Jan 25, 2012

Atrocious Joe posted:

beware of the fake NED scams tho.
https://twitter.com/NEDemocracy/status/1479192045080043523?s=20

imagine how much money NED must give out for a scam industry to develop around it

drat imagine catfishing guaido

# ? Jan 6, 2022 22:03

Man Musk: Jan 13, 2010

https://twitter.com/EEMemez/status/1479150975071965188/photo/1

# ? Jan 6, 2022 22:08

Lostconfused: Oct 1, 2008

Man Musk posted:

NATO-RU talks next week get hype

quote:
Commentators loyal to President Vladimir Putin have suggested that the West is trying to foment a colour revolution in Kazakhstan. The aim of this imaginary plot is supposedly to destabilise Russia as it prepares to talk to NATO about its threats to invade Ukraine.

Who is writing for the economist here, show your self coward!

# ? Jan 6, 2022 22:19

indigi: Jul 20, 2004; ^{how can we not talk about family

when family's all that we got?}

can someone speaking Mandarin pretty much understand and be mostly understood by someone speaking Cantonese? is it like Spanish and Italian?

# ? Jan 6, 2022 22:19

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

I doubt it is seriously straining Russian resources, especially since that VDV regiment was purposely being held in reserve.

# ? Jan 6, 2022 22:22

Nonsense: Jan 26, 2007

fits my needs posted:

https://twitter.com/Militarydotcom/status/1479158556653932546?s=20

China plans many launches and many meetings :yooge:

# ? Jan 6, 2022 22:25

Frog Act: Feb 10, 2012

indigi posted:

can someone speaking Mandarin pretty much understand and be mostly understood by someone speaking Cantonese? is it like Spanish and Italian?

nah they're not mutually intelligible at all, China has a large number of regional dialects with varying degrees of intercomprehensibility. Looked into a bit when I was watching a lot of Cantonese movies and was fascinated to discover there are a few, like, hyperregional variants of Cantonese that aren't even mutually intelligible with the most widely spoken dialect. wish I could remember precisely what that was called, but short answer, no

ed:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_varieties_of_Chinese

# ? Jan 6, 2022 22:29

crepeface: Nov 5, 2004; r*p*f*c*

indigi posted:

can someone speaking Mandarin pretty much understand and be mostly understood by someone speaking Cantonese? is it like Spanish and Italian?

not the most fluent, but I'd say a canto speaker can understand 30% - 60% depending on the type of conversation. it's probably higher now.

i think mando speakers have a harder time understanding canto. as I understand it, it has a lot more tones and slang

edit: this is in my experience but I imagine both people had some experience with the other language

crepeface has issued a correction as of 22:52 on Jan 6, 2022

# ? Jan 6, 2022 22:31

dead gay comedy forums: Oct 21, 2011

Frog Act posted:

nah they're not mutually intelligible at all, China has a large number of regional dialects with varying degrees of intercomprehensibility. Looked into a bit when I was watching a lot of Cantonese movies and was fascinated to discover there are a few, like, hyperregional variants of Cantonese that aren't even mutually intelligible with the most widely spoken dialect. wish I could remember precisely what that was called, but short answer, no

ed:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_varieties_of_Chinese

makes a lot of sense, never occurred to me as such. China has like what, five millennia of civilization with a high populational density, it's a language hypercenter like india

# ? Jan 6, 2022 22:34

Frog Act: Feb 10, 2012

dead gay comedy forums posted:

makes a lot of sense, never occurred to me as such. China has like what, five millennia of civilization with a high populational density, it's a language hypercenter like india

yeah there's tons of variation within sinitic languages and that's without even accounting for the other language families present in China like the Uyghur language, Tibetan, etc etc. apparently Hokkien and Mandarin are the closest analogue to, say, Spanish and Italian in terms of mutual comprehensibility

# ? Jan 6, 2022 22:35

Maximo Roboto: Feb 4, 2012

https://mrsteinberg.com/grow-your-north-korean-start-up/

quote:

Here are Sam�s 5 tips for your North Korean startup:

1. Yes, you may get shot at if you are caught in action. But for the most part no one cares, the border guards may even want some of your goods.

2. Relabel your South Korean goods as Chinese, the punishment for smuggling Chinese goods is far less than South Korean goods.

3. If you have a lake on your border, move smaller goods across the lake in a bag with a wire. Save your large items for the winter, not only are country roads bumpy and terrible, but the lake will freeze over and be �smoother than a highway� It is also less likely to get caught because its so cold out.

4. Don�t work with people you know. You don�t want to be responsible for your friends going to jail. Typically the middlemen have a list of �trustworthy� people. Use contractors, on top of their being no real payroll, its just better business to give them a cut of your profits instead of paying them all year round.

5. Be careful where you store your money. One of his puppies (obviously Sam kept several for himself) ended up digging up one of his stockpiles and started eating his money.

# ? Jan 6, 2022 22:38

indigi: Jul 20, 2004; ^{how can we not talk about family

when family's all that we got?}

Frog Act posted:

there are a few, like, hyperregional variants of Cantonese that aren't even mutually intelligible with the most widely spoken dialect

drat, wouldn�t that just be a different language at that point?

e:

Frog Act posted:

apparently Hokkien and Mandarin are the closest analogue to, say, Spanish and Italian in terms of mutual comprehensibility

oh cool thanks

# ? Jan 6, 2022 22:40

eSports Chaebol: Feb 22, 2005; Yeah, actually, gamers in the house forever,

indigi posted:

drat, wouldn�t that just be a different language at that point?

e:

oh cool thanks

as the old saying goes, a language is a dialect with an army. but yeah, the diversity of Cantonese dialects alone is greater than the diversity of Swedish/Norwegian/danish for example.

# ? Jan 6, 2022 22:44

Frog Act: Feb 10, 2012

indigi posted:

drat, wouldn�t that just be a different language at that point?

e:

oh cool thanks

I'm no linguist but my limited understanding is that dialects don't actually have to be mutually intelligible to be considered part of the same language, because of grammatical structures and social characteristics that are all beyond my comprehension but inform the somewhat vague and contingent classification of language versus dialect. here's an interesting little snippet. not sure how accurate it is but it sounds reasonable

quote:

One thing is certain: a monolingual speaker of Cantonese cannot understand a monolingual speaker of Mandarin and vice versa. There is zero intelligibility between the two languages. In fact, even within the huge collection of speech forms that fall under the umbrella of "Mandarin," there are many varieties that are more or less mutually unintelligible. On July 4, 1987, I was climbing up Emei Mountain in Sichuan. It was a hot, muggy day, and our small party (my wife, son, sister, and I) were struggling up the steep slopes. We were astonished to see large groups of short, older ladies speeding upward. As we listened to their chatter, we couldn't understand a word of what they were saying. My wife, who grew up in Chengdu, and so speaks Chengdu Sichuanese (Szechwanese) � generally considered to be a variety of Mandarin � suspected that the older ladies were speaking a non-Sinitic language. When we inquired at the little shops along the way, we were informed that the groups of pilgrims were speaking one or another type of Sichuanese from nearby districts. Mind you, Mount Emei is only 150 kilometers (93 miles) southwest of Chengdu City. And even in Chengdu there are expressions that don't sound like Modern Standard Mandarin, such as MO DEI LO ("we don't have any" or "there isn't any"), LANGGE GAO DI ("what's going on?"), ZAGO ("how is it?"), and CHUIZI ("penis"; I'm not sure, but perhaps this originally meant "hammer").

https://languagelog.ldc.upenn.edu/nll/?p=1211

edit: I was originally thinking of Sichuanese, which supposedly has subdialects that are themselves not mutually comprehensible despite being fairly close in geographic origin

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sichuanese_dialects

Frog Act has issued a correction as of 22:49 on Jan 6, 2022

# ? Jan 6, 2022 22:47

dead gay comedy forums: Oct 21, 2011

eSports Chaebol posted:

as the old saying goes, a language is a dialect with an army. but yeah, the diversity of Cantonese dialects alone is greater than the diversity of Swedish/Norwegian/danish for example.

peasants into frenchmen

nation-building requires the creation of mutual understanding, usually done by force. I am ignorant about chinese antiquity, so I imagine that the first imperial state there must've set the standard of intercommunication for the equivalent of ancient mandarin, or something like that

# ? Jan 6, 2022 22:48

Hedenius: Aug 23, 2007

https://youtu.be/VOpUxzFaqKA

https://twitter.com/queeralamode/status/1479163333374734339?s=21

e: I wonder which one is the dying empire�

Hedenius has issued a correction as of 22:52 on Jan 6, 2022

# ? Jan 6, 2022 22:49

Frog Act: Feb 10, 2012

dead gay comedy forums posted:

peasants into frenchmen

nation-building requires the creation of mutual understanding, usually done by force. I am ignorant about chinese antiquity, so I imagine that the first imperial state there must've set the standard of intercommunication for the equivalent of ancient mandarin, or something like that

I think that varied a lot, iirc the Qing used Manchu as a prestige language of governance and left Chinese itself to the Chinese people and it was a not-totally-insignificant part of the broader alienation of the Manchu from the people they ruled. most of the enforced standardization is modern in origin, much like the whole post revolutionary European impulse to stamp out or diminish the prevalence of minority languages to promote identification with a national identity

# ? Jan 6, 2022 22:51

Promethium: Dec 31, 2009; Dinosaur Gum

There are different modes of Cantonese as well (within the scope of using Chinese characters), with a formal mode that uses mostly the same structures as written Mandarin even though the characters are pronounced differently, and a vernacular style that is not at all mutually intelligible.

# ? Jan 6, 2022 22:53

dead gay comedy forums: Oct 21, 2011

Hedenius posted:

https://youtu.be/VOpUxzFaqKA

https://twitter.com/queeralamode/status/1479163333374734339?s=21

e: I wonder which one is the dying empire�

loving lmao ahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

# ? Jan 6, 2022 22:58

vyelkin: Jan 2, 2011

A leftish scholar of the region who I know shared this interview with a Kazakhstani socialist, which I found pretty interesting:

https://lefteast.org/a-color-revolution-or-a-working-class-uprising-an-interview-with-aynur-kurmanov-on-the-protests-in-kazakhstan

Take it with a grain of salt because of course it's just one man's opinion, but he at least frames it as a working-class uprising against what's essentially an extractive neoliberal state rather than a colour revolution - but, equally, an uprising that lacks any organized leadership because the state doesn't allow oppositional political parties or trade unions, and therefore one that's liable to coopting by organized interests that don't share the workers' goals.

Key excerpts:

quote:

This is not a Maidan, although many political analysts are trying to present it this way. Where did such amazing self-organization come from? This is the experience and tradition of the workers. Strikes have been shaking the Mangistau region since 2008, and the strike movement began back in the 2000s. Even without any input from the Communist Party or other leftist groups, there were constant demands to nationalize the oil companies. The workers simply saw with their own eyes what privatization and foreign capitalist takeover was leading to. In the course of these earlier demonstrations, they gained enormous experience in struggle and solidarity. The very life in the wilderness made people stick together. It was against this background that the working class and the rest of the population came together. The protests of the workers in Zhanoazen and Aktau then set the tone for other regions of the country. Yurts and tents, which protesters began to put up in the main squares of the cities, were not at all taken from the �Euromaidan� experience: they stood in the Mangastau Region during the local strikes last year. The population itself brought water and food for the protesters.

In Kazakhstan today there is no legal opposition, the entire political field has been cleared. The Communist Party of Kazakhstan was the last to be liquidated in 2015. Only 7 pro-governmental parties remained. But there are plenty of NGOs working in the country, which actively cooperate with the authorities in promoting a pro-Western agenda. Their favorite topics: the famine of the 1930s, the rehabilitation of participants of the Basmachi movement and collaborators of World War II, and so on. NGOs also work on the development of nationalist movement, which in Kazakhstan is completely pro-government. Nationalists hold rallies against China and Russia which are sanctioned by the authorities.

quote:

Back in 2017, a monument was erected in Kyzyl-Orda to Mustafa Chokai, the inspirer of the Turkestan legion of the Wehrmacht. Today, the state is radically revising history. The process has especially intensified after Nursultan Nazarbayev�s visit to the USA a few years ago. The pan-Turkic movement is also becoming more and more active. More recently, i[on the initiative of Nursultan Nazarbayev, the Union of Turkic States was established in Istanbul on Nov. 12, 2021. Kazakhstan�s elite keeps its main assets in the West. That�s why the imperialistic states are absolutely not interested in the downfall of the present regime; it is already completely on their side.

quote:

Nazarbayev�s resignation as president to head the Security Council was motivated by the desire to create the appearance of democracy, including to the West. In reality, he maintains full control over all the branches of power and only increased his power while at the same time completely avoiding responsibility. President Tokayev is a decorative figure, a pawn within the ruling family. Undoubtedly, the current protests can lead to some factions attempting a palace coup or similar actions. You can�t reduce everything to conspiracy theories. You shouldn�t idealize the current protest movement either. Yes, it is a grassroots social movement, with a pioneering role for workers, supported by the unemployed and other social groups. But there are very different forces at work in it, especially as workers do not have their own party, class trade unions, a clear program that fully meets their interests. The existing left-wing groups in Kazakhstan are more like circles and cannot seriously influence the course of events. Oligarchic and outside forces will try to appropriate and or at least use this movement for their own purposes. If it wins, the redistribution of property and open confrontation between various groups of the bourgeoisie, a �war of all against all,� will begin. But, in any case, the workers will be able to win certain freedoms and get new opportunities, including the creation of their own parties and independent trade unions, which will facilitate their struggle for their rights in the future.

Russian original is here for those who read it, I checked a few passages and the English translation seemed good enough to me: https://zanovo.media/kategorii/habeas-corpus-2-2/massovye-vystupleniya-v-kazakhstane-tsvetnaya-revolyutsiya-ili-vosstanie-rabochego-klassa

# ? Jan 6, 2022 23:02

Pener Kropoopkin: Jan 30, 2013; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
(and can't post for 30 days!)

the whole discourse around color revolutions is unnuanced in the sense that it gives people the impression that every one of them is some kind of foreign-NGO backed op, rather than all of these foreign organizations being prepared to capitalize on these moments of opportunity.

# ? Jan 6, 2022 23:23

Agrajag: Jan 21, 2006; gat dang thats hot

indigi posted:

can someone speaking Mandarin pretty much understand and be mostly understood by someone speaking Cantonese? is it like Spanish and Italian?

yes and no. my dad cant understand someone speaking mandarin and cant speak it either but my mom can and speaks it too

i can pick out a few familiar words when i hear someone speak mainlandnese but thats about it

Agrajag has issued a correction as of 23:26 on Jan 6, 2022

# ? Jan 6, 2022 23:23

Agrajag: Jan 21, 2006; gat dang thats hot

Promethium posted:

There are different modes of Cantonese as well (within the scope of using Chinese characters), with a formal mode that uses mostly the same structures as written Mandarin even though the characters are pronounced differently, and a vernacular style that is not at all mutually intelligible.

yeah normie cantonese when youre with your buds is almost all slang whereas formal cantonese is almost completely different like when you listen to a cantonese news broadcast its almost akin to academia lenglish but even more so imo

# ? Jan 6, 2022 23:27

mila kunis: Jun 10, 2011

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

the whole discourse around color revolutions is unnuanced in the sense that it gives people the impression that every one of them is some kind of foreign-NGO backed op, rather than all of these foreign organizations being prepared to capitalize on these moments of opportunity.

yeah it'd be nice if this led to the rebirth of the Kazakh SSR or something, but the likeliest outcome is usually: the same poo poo as before and everyone's being hosed by capitalism, but this time its fully pro NATO and another slot in encircling american enemies

# ? Jan 6, 2022 23:31

Pener Kropoopkin: Jan 30, 2013; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
(and can't post for 30 days!)

mila kunis posted:

yeah it'd be nice if this led to the rebirth of the Kazakh SSR or something, but the likeliest outcome is usually: the same poo poo as before and everyone's being hosed by capitalism, but this time its fully pro NATO and another slot in encircling american enemies

I have a feeling that western interests aren't going to win out in this one, and it'll be some local elites with more or less the same interests as Tokayev. Cutting out Kazakhstan from the Russia-China axis would be economic suicide.

# ? Jan 6, 2022 23:50

Agrajag: Jan 21, 2006; gat dang thats hot

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

I have a feeling that western interests aren't going to win out in this one, and it'll be some local elites with more or less the same interests as Tokayev. Cutting out Kazakhstan from the Russia-China axis would be economic suicide.

i think the west will be perfectly happy with a failed state situation

# ? Jan 6, 2022 23:51

Flavahbeast: Jul 21, 2001

vyelkin posted:

A leftish scholar of the region who I know shared this interview with a Kazakhstani socialist, which I found pretty interesting:

https://lefteast.org/a-color-revolution-or-a-working-class-uprising-an-interview-with-aynur-kurmanov-on-the-protests-in-kazakhstan

Take it with a grain of salt because of course it's just one man's opinion, but he at least frames it as a working-class uprising against what's essentially an extractive neoliberal state rather than a colour revolution - but, equally, an uprising that lacks any organized leadership because the state doesn't allow oppositional political parties or trade unions, and therefore one that's liable to coopting by organized interests that don't share the workers' goals.

Key excerpts:

Russian original is here for those who read it, I checked a few passages and the English translation seemed good enough to me: https://zanovo.media/kategorii/habeas-corpus-2-2/massovye-vystupleniya-v-kazakhstane-tsvetnaya-revolyutsiya-ili-vosstanie-rabochego-klassa

Ames seems sympathetic toward the demonstrators as well:

https://twitter.com/MarkAmesExiled/status/1479124166846595076

# ? Jan 7, 2022 00:00

CaptainACAB: Sep 14, 2021; by Jeffrey of Langley

Some Guy TT posted:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Reuters/status/1478447388243202053

i mean china has violated their right to keep child sex slaves and mutilate peasants for not working hard enough, that cannot be denied.

# ? Jan 7, 2022 00:05

Some Guy TT: Aug 30, 2011

https://mobile.twitter.com/WilliamYang120/status/1478984048290713605

# ? Jan 7, 2022 00:11

Tankbuster: Oct 1, 2021

all five of them?

# ? Jan 7, 2022 00:13

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

I don�t really get it either considering that Lithuania immediately apologized to the PRC.

I am also not convinced this is an ad hoc event considering the both the 2018-2020 protests and how it ramped up very quickly. Also, the timing doesn�t help that argument either, sometimes it is a occam razor situation.

Ardennes has issued a correction as of 00:29 on Jan 7, 2022

# ? Jan 7, 2022 00:24

Agrajag: Jan 21, 2006; gat dang thats hot

Some Guy TT posted:

https://mobile.twitter.com/WilliamYang120/status/1478984048290713605

refusing to let them pay and bowing and asking to shake their hands??

im nearly 100% certain this is all fabricated

# ? Jan 7, 2022 00:26

HiroProtagonist: May 7, 2007

Flavahbeast posted:

Ames seems sympathetic toward the demonstrators as well:

https://twitter.com/MarkAmesExiled/status/1479124166846595076

tbqh every twitter blue checkmark that comes out in support makes my already dubious view of the circumstances and goals lean even more negative

that socialist guy posted above also doesn't help considering a couple factors:
a) socialists may be nominal or even earnest but being a socialist doesn't make you immune to having terrible analysis--for one example check out how much anarchists love every color revolution they read about (libya was one of more disgusting examples), or for a foreign example how about the trot group that fought alongside jihadis in syria and called them "freedom fighters"
b) there is a hugely diverse political spectrum in places where chaotic open armed conflict is taking place, and just because some involved or close to events believe it to be genuine expressions has absolutely no bearing on whether the core character of it is manufactured and manipulated

point b) is kind of sad to have to admit because i get the impulse to want to believe and see a 21st century revolution thats socialist in character but the reality is that there is far far far more evidence of western backed color revolutions than anything even resembling a genuine expression of militant working class ones and the evidence is undeniable that the west at least planned and partially executed on documented strategic policy goals that include a scenario like this.

manufactured consent is a loving hell of a drug

# ? Jan 7, 2022 00:27

Atrocious Joe: Sep 2, 2011

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

the whole discourse around color revolutions is unnuanced in the sense that it gives people the impression that every one of them is some kind of foreign-NGO backed op, rather than all of these foreign organizations being prepared to capitalize on these moments of opportunity.

There's a tendency I see on the english language internet that sees every crisis as manufactured and managed by US imperialism. People can read Lenin and understand the need for working class political formations that can take power when a crisis erupts, but then are very confused when other classes are reacting and trying to capitalize on opportunities during a crisis.

To be fair, that view is still more accurate than most english language analysis at predicting events because US led imperialism is still the most powerful force in the world. The US and its allies do try to manufactures crises all the time.

I think this tendency actually messed up the most with COVID, because it couldn't comprehend the ruling class in US and Europe loving up the response. Some "COVID skeptic" discourse on the left seems to be people over-correcting in the face of decades of "bumbling US empire" propaganda.

# ? Jan 7, 2022 00:46

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

It is very possible for there could be genuine issues at hand and that the events that place may not exactly be born from the situation on the ground.

That said, if the West had a hand, it isn�t working out. While it certainly spooked the Kazakh government, it is going to only force them closer to Russia and while some critical points were taken, I don�t think it changed much in the broader calculus for the West since Russia didn�t pull any forces.

Atrocious Joe posted:

There's a tendency I see on the english language internet that sees every crisis as manufactured and managed by US imperialism. People can read Lenin and understand the need for working class political formations that can take power when a crisis erupts, but then are very confused when other classes are reacting and trying to capitalize on opportunities during a crisis.

To be fair, that view is still more accurate than most english language analysis at predicting events because US led imperialism is still the most powerful force in the world. The US and its allies do try to manufactures crises all the time.

I think this tendency actually messed up the most with COVID, because it couldn't comprehend the ruling class in US and Europe loving up the response. Some "COVID skeptic" discourse on the left seems to be people over-correcting in the face of decades of "bumbling US empire" propaganda.

If you think that is the case or the English language internet, check the Russian internet sometime.

Ardennes has issued a correction as of 00:51 on Jan 7, 2022

# ? Jan 7, 2022 00:47

Man Musk: Jan 13, 2010

�CSTO has now proven that it is a defensive alliance,� quips Sergey Radchenko, a historian, echoing old Soviet jokes about the Warsaw Pact. �It only invades its own members.�

# ? Jan 7, 2022 00:50

HiroProtagonist: May 7, 2007

Ardennes posted:

It is very possible for there could be genuine issues at hand and that the events that place may not exactly be born from the situation on the ground.

That said, if the West had a hand, it isn�t working out. While it certainly spooked the Kazakh government, it is going to only force them closer to Russia and while some critical points were taken, I don�t think it changed much in the broader calculus for the West since Russia didn�t pull any forces.

it's not working out yet

it took almost 12 months to give up that tip in hong kong and still hasn't been fully given up on in venezuela. assuming one grants that johnny guido still knocking off fake presidential seals off fake presidential stages still constitutes evidence that the effort is still in progress

edit: outright fabrication is rare and essentially impossible/unlikely at this point for more than one reason, the other poster that said existing tensions are being exploited is what i always lean towards, because inflaming situations with paid actors and infiltrators and providing "organizational support" and propaganda is something the state department, CIA and domestic US counterintelligence agencies are EXTREMELY familiar with. color revolution has always meant destabilizing existing contradictions to turn it to the ends of neoliberalism, at least in anything resembling the modern experience.

HiroProtagonist has issued a correction as of 00:54 on Jan 7, 2022

# ? Jan 7, 2022 00:50

Atrocious Joe: Sep 2, 2011

vyelkin posted:

A leftish scholar of the region who I know shared this interview with a Kazakhstani socialist, which I found pretty interesting:

https://lefteast.org/a-color-revolution-or-a-working-class-uprising-an-interview-with-aynur-kurmanov-on-the-protests-in-kazakhstan

Take it with a grain of salt because of course it's just one man's opinion, but he at least frames it as a working-class uprising against what's essentially an extractive neoliberal state rather than a colour revolution - but, equally, an uprising that lacks any organized leadership because the state doesn't allow oppositional political parties or trade unions, and therefore one that's liable to coopting by organized interests that don't share the workers' goals.

Key excerpts:

Russian original is here for those who read it, I checked a few passages and the English translation seemed good enough to me: https://zanovo.media/kategorii/habeas-corpus-2-2/massovye-vystupleniya-v-kazakhstane-tsvetnaya-revolyutsiya-ili-vosstanie-rabochego-klassa

typically not a great sign when even trots admit that the far right nationalists are the most organized force on the street

Ardennes posted:

It is very possible for there could be genuine issues at hand and that the events that place may not exactly be born from the situation on the ground.

That said, if the West had a hand, it isn�t working out. While it certainly spooked the Kazakh government, it is going to only force them closer to Russia and while some critical points were taken, I don�t think it changed much in the broader calculus for the West since Russia didn�t pull any forces.

Isn't this similar to what happened in Belarus? The EU and US saw leadership in Belarus drifting away from Moscow and a protests after elections, and then overplayed their hand completely.

# ? Jan 7, 2022 01:01

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# ? May 29, 2024 17:38

HiroProtagonist: May 7, 2007

Atrocious Joe posted:

Isn't this similar to what happened in Belarus? The EU and US saw leadership in Belarus drifting away from Moscow and a protests after elections, and then overplayed their hand completely.

yeah agreed I mentioned the comparison to belarus previously

the NED arent sending their best these days

# ? Jan 7, 2022 01:06

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