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Which horse film is your favorite?
This poll is closed.
Black Beauty 2 1.06%
A Talking Pony!?! 4 2.13%
Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor 117 62.23%
War Horse 11 5.85%
Mr. Hands 54 28.72%
Total: 188 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there
Yeah SSI says they expect it to get somewhat worse this month but top out.

https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/ssi-forudser-mellem-25000-og-55000-smittetilfaelde-i-slutningen-af-januar

Somewhere between 25000 and 55000 a day.

On the basis of their prior worst case was WAY high (no blame, it's a worst case for a reason) I expect it to be closer to 25k.

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crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*

Illuminti posted:

Hardly. It's not great but 800,000 cases and 274 people in the ICU isn't really civilisation ending.

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/nsw-pos...91-74b6b39147cc

Now 600 people in the ICU is not good. But lets keep some perspective.

I would imagine that Australia not having the Nov 2020 to Feb 2021 wave is not helping either.

has any modelling that says cases will magically drop ever actually been correct?

people can't even all get tested, there's disruptions all over the place already and ICU numbers are doubling about every week. and do you really think NSW has 6000 spare beds?

NSW records 35,054 COVID-19 cases as Premier admits health system is under pressure

quote:

Many sectors are experiencing disruption due to the high positivity rates and today 325 childcare centres are closed in NSW due to staff testing positive.

Over 3,000 healthcare workers are currently being furloughed due to COVID and nurses have told the ABC they are feeling pressured not to take sick leave or mental health days.

Hundreds of aged care workers are also having to self-isolate and the chief executive of Aged and Community Services Australia Paul Sadler said leaders needed to address the unfolding emergency.

NSW doctor challenges Premier's claim health system in 'strong position' to deal with COVID-19 surge

quote:

The doctor, however, said she has seen colleagues experiencing "enormous burnout", which she claimed had forced some to quit their jobs or enter an early retirement.

"Every health care worker and cleaner and administration worker in hospitals knows how far from the truth this is," she said.

"All of them are so upset when they hear him making those comments because it shows such a disconnect between his reality and their reality.

‘People will die’: doctors warn Covid surge is filling up NSW hospitals

quote:

Hospitals in NSW are much closer to capacity due to surging Covid cases than is being admitted by officials, warn doctors and nurses, with one saying the system has “never been this bad”.

One senior specialist said “even the most routine urgent treatment” was already being cancelled to divert resources to Covid. “People will die,” he said.

The state’s chief health officer, Dr Kerry Chant, repeated on Monday that the health system remained “very well placed” to cope with rising hospitalisation rates. The number of patients in intensive care units (ICU) rose 14% in the previous 24 hours with more than 20,000 new Covid cases again reported in NSW.

Privately, though, doctors and nurses who are not authorised to speak publicly say the health system is close to capacity.

“No way will the health system cope,” said the senior specialist. “It’s never been this bad.”

The senior doctor said the focus on staff shortages overlooked the issue that all the state’s major hospitals were rapidly approaching bed capacity. At the current rate “every single bed will only be for Covid patients … it doesn’t matter how many staff they call back”.

A nurse at a major hospital, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said that while her centre still had spare beds, there were “huge gaps in staffing”.

Lung and heart transplant patients were among those who were not getting the care they would have just two years ago, the nurse with almost a decade’s experience said.

“People are turning up really unwell,” she said. “They are staying 40, 50, 60 hours” in emergency wards while they wait for capacity to be made available.

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/1478153133729533954?s=20
too stretched thin to give COVID infected healthcare workers sick leave

https://twitter.com/VicGovDH/status/1478635895485976576?s=20

maybe im just more a screamer than you, but seeing all this from ~100k cases from two weeks ago makes me extremely worried when NSW has 380k and is jumping by ~35k a day... and that's just the cases the struggling testing system can find

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*

freebooter posted:

But then you just have to slap them back on again in February? I dunno, I really don't find it that burdensome to wear on one the tram or at the supermarket, I reckon it would be more sensible to just say "look they're here to stay" since they'll probably be with us for the rest of the decade. Nobody will remember their golden age of four weeks of mask-free shopping at Floreat Forum a year from now.

i think your posts have convinced mark mcgowan

freebooter posted:

I wouldn't say I oppose mask mandates but I think they have way less effect than people seem to think they do, purely because the same people who won't wear a mask of their own accord will also happily flout the law. Similarly, you can go ahead and repeal a mask mandate (like New South Wales did yesterday) but people who'd prefer to mask will still mask.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Anecdotally, as Victoria has slalomed between COVID-zero and plague pit, I've seen mask compliance wander between 20% and 95%, and the only time it ever particularly matched government announcements was when they were widely adopted in June 2020 after being made mandatory everywhere. I don't think WA's decision to temporarily repeal or not actually matters much re: virus transmission, I just think it's an odd choice if you're supposed to be gearing up for reopening in four weeks anyway.

edit - to be really clear, my position on masks is that they are good, they obviously help reduce transmission, and mask mandates have a limited but positive effect on reducing transmission because the number of people who would obey them (but wouldn't wear one otherwise) is non-zero and the burden on the citizen is also virtually zero, therefore they are worthwhile. There's just a lot of people - especially in the US and especially in this thread - who seem to think they're a panacea, to the point I've seen people argue that if the US government mailed an N95 to every citizen they could end the pandemic within weeks, which is obviously ridiculous.

Re: hospitals I'm more worried about the smaller states that often have healthcare crises even without COVID like Tas, SA and WA than I am about NSW or Vic - if it was likely we were going to see the hospitals "collapse" (i.e. COVID patients being turned away, people lying in corridors) they'd have gone way stronger on quasi-lockdown measures already rather than just shutting nightclubs. Tasmania has an outbreak on King Island and Queensland has remote Aboriginal communities hoping that the wet season cuts them off from spreaders, that kind of poo poo has much more ominous potential than huge rich well-resourced cities like Melbourne and Sydney.


Fritz the Horse posted:

don't worry you're fine just wearing masks as normal, please see this CDC graphic which includes your exact facial hair style for some reason



Fun fact: the Hitler mo was quite popular before he tainted it forever, reason being that lots of WWI soldiers adopted it because it didn't interfere with a gas mask seal

freebooter fucked around with this message at 09:39 on Jan 7, 2022

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*
edit: goddamnit

~triple post~ to bring you an article about this very topic just got released (about the earlier modelling posted)

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...t-case-scenario

quote:

Almost all of the 12,500 beds across public and private hospitals in New South Wales will be occupied – by both Covid cases and regular patients – when pressure from the state’s Omicron outbreak peaks in late January, if worst-case scenario modelling is realised.

quote:

NSW’s public hospital bed capacity is about 9,500, and on Thursday, 8,000 of these beds were occupied by 1,600 patients with Covid and 6,400 people receiving treatment for other illnesses.

Should demand for hospital beds exceed 9,500, the government will be able to access at least 3,000 beds in private hospitals across NSW, taking the state’s total hospital bed capacity to 12,500.

Under the worst-case scenario, 6,000 people with Covid will require beds, in addition to the baseline figure of more than 6,000 people in hospital for treatment of illnesses that aren’t Covid.

NSW’s ICU capacity is 1,000 beds, and on Thursday, 467 of these beds were occupied, including by 134 patients with Covid and a baseline of 333 non-Covid patients requiring intensive care.

Under the worst-case scenario, whereby 600 ICU beds will be occupied by Covid patients, the state’s intensive care capacity would be hovering just under capacity.

so 12500 is the absolute max beds if you combine private+public. assuming that means we also have the staff, equipment and logistics to manage this (like being able to magically cordon off the infectious from the heart attack patients).

8000 are currently already occupied, which leaves 4500 beds. their worst case scenario is 6000 so by their own modelling, things will be hosed. they assume enough people will vacate the beds for a baseline of 6000 (discharged or die i assume), but that's still only 2000 leeway



my basic bitch exponential trend line shows NSW hitting 4500 in hospitals around 3rd week of jan. their modelling prediction is that "healthcare pressure" will peak in 3rd or 4th week. with a lag from cases to hospitalisations of 1-2 weeks, that means they need new cases to start dropping really goddamn soon. if you think their baseline of 6000 non-covid patients is correct, then they'd have an extra week or so.

currently, NSW thinks 50% of cases are omicron. perhaps their model ingrates the assumption of omicron being x% milder to give the "realistic" trend line and they're really confident in it because otherwise i'd be screaming if i were them.

cherry:

quote:

McMullen also cautioned that the modelling only illustrates hospital bed capacity and doesn’t show likely emergency room levels, which continue to bear the brunt of the pressure.

crepeface fucked around with this message at 10:05 on Jan 7, 2022

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*
double post

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

Sharks Eat Bear posted:

Had a similar question myself, wondering if there are any tips if you have facial hair like this?






This you?

Your previous style was a problem, but you are good to go now.

ModernMajorGeneral
Jun 25, 2010

Illuminti posted:

Hardly. It's not great but 800,000 cases and 274 people in the ICU isn't really civilisation ending.

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/nsw-pos...91-74b6b39147cc

Now 600 people in the ICU is not good. But lets keep some perspective.

I would imagine that Australia not having the Nov 2020 to Feb 2021 wave is not helping either.

Not being able to access a hospital isn't civilisation ending - most people around the world, poor people in the USA and a few people in Australia just live with that normally irrespective of covid. It's also probably not something we should handwave away and tell people to keep perspective when it is foisted upon the whole of society. :shrug:

Google Butt
Oct 4, 2005

Xenology is an unnatural mixture of science fiction and formal logic. At its core is a flawed assumption...

that an alien race would be psychologically human.

so how u Aussies feeling now that you're living what you've been watching from afar lol

The Artificial Kid
Feb 22, 2002
Plibble

Illuminti posted:

Hardly. It's not great but 800,000 cases and 274 people in the ICU isn't really civilisation ending.

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/nsw-pos...91-74b6b39147cc

Now 600 people in the ICU is not good. But lets keep some perspective.

I would imagine that Australia not having the Nov 2020 to Feb 2021 wave is not helping either.
As of September NSW only had around 800-900 fully staffed ICU beds according to a survey of ICU bosses. And those beds are usually needed for ordinary disease processes that aren’t COVID.

The Artificial Kid
Feb 22, 2002
Plibble

Google Butt posted:

so how u Aussies feeling now that you're living what you've been watching from afar lol

loving embarrassed about our government. We really did have everything.

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there

The Artificial Kid posted:

As of September NSW only had around 800-900 fully staffed ICU beds according to a survey of ICU bosses. And those beds are usually needed for ordinary disease processes that aren’t COVID.

New biweekly report from DK medical quality group rkkp.dk, who track ICU bed availability in Denmark out today (https://www.rkkp.dk/kvalitetsdatabaser/databaser/dansk-intensiv-database/resultater/)

DK opened up 15 or so more ICU beds, I suspect we will see more opened in the next report in 2 weeks. A year ago they had 400 ICU beds open. So there's surge capacity in equipment and space, but nurses and doctors, no idea.


pre:
03 January  	331 ICU beds, 76 COVID, 32 available
27 December	316 ICU beds, 71 COVID, 62 available 
20 December 	317 ICU beds, 60 COVID, 59 available
13 December 	319 ICU beds, 64 COVID, 39 available
06 December 	310 ICU beds, 67 COVID, 10 available <-- squeaky bum time here
29 November	318 ICU beds, 61 COVID, 25 available

Valko
Sep 18, 2015

Nooner posted:

i did a big fart and a bunch of diarrhea sprayed out in my pants does that mean i have covid :ohdear:

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

No, it just means you treat your pants the same way you post on the forums.

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there
Oh the report has ICU admission data including booster data, comorbidities, etc.

https://www.rkkp.dk/siteassets/resultater/covid-19-rapport/dansk-intensiv-covid-19-rapport_06_januar_2022_v1.pdf

329 ICU patients from 1 Nov to 31 Dec

- 142 unvaccinated, 10 1-shot, 122 2-shot, 24 boosted (!!!)

- 152 unvaxxed or 1-shot - 65.8% male, average age 56 (42 - 68), BMI 30, 57% on vent average 9 days, 11% dialysis, 5% ECMO
- 122 with 2 shots - 66.4% male, average age 73 (64-78), BMI 29, 49% vent on average 9 days, 11% dialysis, no ECMO
- 24 boosted - 70.8% make, average age 73 (70-78), BMI 30, 67% vented average 10 days, 17% dialysis, no ECMO

Outcomes:
- unvaxxed/1-shot: 52% discharged, 21% CU, 19% hospital, 18% dead
- 2 shots: 37% discharged, 11% ICU, 14% hospital, 39% dead
- boosted: 25% discharged, 25% ICU, 13% hospital, 38% dead

ICU = still in ICU
hospital = in hospital outside ICU

The co-morbidity data for the boosteds is a bit grim. Of the 24, all were 70-78, 10 were immunosuppressed, 18 with hypertension, 9 with ischæmic heart disease, 9 had active cancer, etc. Only 2 of 24 lacked one or more comorbidities.

Hospital admissions were 5-7 days median for the whole cohort. Interestingly admission to ICU was median 1 day after hospital admission, so my ICU theory was wrong.

Rust Martialis fucked around with this message at 12:45 on Jan 7, 2022

ModernMajorGeneral
Jun 25, 2010

Google Butt posted:

so how u Aussies feeling now that you're living what you've been watching from afar lol

Bad that we idiotically decided to bring this upon ourselves, but weirdly relieved that people in other countries are no longer talking about how smart the Australian government is.

The zero covid regimes were never going to last not because zero covid is impossible but because we all knew on some level it was an uncharacteristic level of competence for us.

Gort
Aug 18, 2003

Good day what ho cup of tea
It was loving heartbreaking watching you guys repeat the mistakes the UK government has been amply demonstrating for years

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there
gently caress me, I'm still looking at the ICU data from Nov/Dec.

I had assumed that the "unvaccinated" would have included kids since they weren't eligible in DK until recently, but no: the youngest person admitted to ICU in DK in the last 2 months was 42. The unvaccinated were all between 42 and 68.

If you had 2 shots, you were 64 or older. Boosted, 70.

So it sounds like all the 142 unvaccinated were eligible for 2 shots forever. But they didn't get it.

54% of them had zero comorbidities.

27 of them died in the ICU.

The only thing that I can take away is it looks like zero kids went to ICU in the last 2 months.

Hoping they're just not excluded from the dataset.

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?
so of all the things i think are being mishandled in the U.S. right now, i think the biggest scandal right now should be how the U.S. is treating non-MRNA vaccinations.

my time in the novavax trial/subreddit has shown me there are many kinds of people who do not want to get vaccinated with mRNA vaccines. they include:

* people who will never get any vaccine because they are hardcore andrew wakefield followers
* people who will never get the mRNA vaccines for batshit reasons, like thinking bill gates personally implanted 5g chips in them, but might get another vaccine
* people who won’t get an mRNA vaccine for earnest caution that may be overindexed but which is anchored in something legitimate, like fear of certain side effects (for example, it is true, it turns out, that if you are under 40, the mRNA vaccines are something like 4x more likely to give you myocarditis than a covid infection is likely to give you myocarditis, which you can debate the risk/significance of but, you know, is indeed showing up in the data)

some of these people have gotten J&J, but some have also looked at the J&J data and said what the rest of us have said this whole time — it's not as effective. some people are worried about this being new tech or 5g or blood clots too, the same thing as above.

the point being we have since developed protein subunit vaccines (like novavax and corbevax, and the cuban vaccines), deactivated vaccines (like covaxin), that have shown really strong results + less bad side effects. but rather than say “well, as your doctor, i recommend you get a pfizer, but here are your option, and the important thing is to be vaccinated,” we are just saying “well we have developed the best vaccines with our revolutionary technology so just take them you idiot" and it’s the height of counterproductive capital-S Scientist arrogance that the FDA has been e.g. sitting on the covaxin data for ages 2+ for like 3 months now without doing a drat thing.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Google Butt posted:

so how u Aussies feeling now that you're living what you've been watching from afar lol

In Melbourne, so been living with it mostly the whole time anyway

ModernMajorGeneral posted:

Bad that we idiotically decided to bring this upon ourselves, but weirdly relieved that people in other countries are no longer talking about how smart the Australian government is.

The zero covid regimes were never going to last not because zero covid is impossible but because we all knew on some level it was an uncharacteristic level of competence for us.

- Delta leaks in
- Go into lockdown
- Cases keep rising in spite of lockdown because Delta's just too infectious
- "Australia gave up"
- ????

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*
hey dumbass, we know you still believe that lockdowns don't work because victoria hosed theirs up despite a million people telling you how they were flawed over and over, but modernmajorgeneral is talking about australia, not just melbourne. feds/NSW definitely brought it on themselves and then hosed over everyone else

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

hey! check this out
Fun Shoe

Petey posted:

so of all the things i think are being mishandled in the U.S. right now, i think the biggest scandal right now should be how the U.S. is treating non-MRNA vaccinations.

my time in the novavax trial/subreddit has shown me there are many kinds of people who do not want to get vaccinated with mRNA vaccines. they include:

* people who will never get any vaccine because they are hardcore andrew wakefield followers
* people who will never get the mRNA vaccines for batshit reasons, like thinking bill gates personally implanted 5g chips in them, but might get another vaccine
* people who won’t get an mRNA vaccine for earnest caution that may be overindexed but which is anchored in something legitimate, like fear of certain side effects (for example, it is true, it turns out, that if you are under 40, the mRNA vaccines are something like 4x more likely to give you myocarditis than a covid infection is likely to give you myocarditis, which you can debate the risk/significance of but, you know, is indeed showing up in the data)

some of these people have gotten J&J, but some have also looked at the J&J data and said what the rest of us have said this whole time — it's not as effective. some people are worried about this being new tech or 5g or blood clots too, the same thing as above.

the point being we have since developed protein subunit vaccines (like novavax and corbevax, and the cuban vaccines), deactivated vaccines (like covaxin), that have shown really strong results + less bad side effects. but rather than say “well, as your doctor, i recommend you get a pfizer, but here are your option, and the important thing is to be vaccinated,” we are just saying “well we have developed the best vaccines with our revolutionary technology so just take them you idiot" and it’s the height of counterproductive capital-S Scientist arrogance that the FDA has been e.g. sitting on the covaxin data for ages 2+ for like 3 months now without doing a drat thing.

your link posted:

We estimated extra myocarditis events to be between 1 and 10 per million persons in the month following vaccination, which was substantially lower than the 40 extra events per million persons observed following SARS-CoV-2 infection.

I think you're backwards on which side has 4x higher myocarditis incidence.

I do think the broader point about how non-mRNA vaccines are treated in discourse is relevant, but more on the global scale where we just need to get as many vaccines as we can out there than on the domestic front where it's about convincing people to take our plentiful vaccines, and people misrepresenting the data certainly doesn't help there.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS
The U.S. should approve inactivated virus vaccines, but only because none of the first generation vaccines are sufficient for herd immunity and U.S. authorities are unwilling to use serious sticks or serious carrots to get people vaccinated.

If either of these were not true, then I would say “No. You cannot approve inferior vaccines simply because people are squeamish about the word ‘mRNA’.”

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
#ATMLIVESMATTER

Put this Nazi-lover on ignore immediately!

Platystemon posted:

The U.S. should approve inactivated virus vaccines, but only because none of the first generation vaccines are sufficient for herd immunity and U.S. authorities are unwilling to use serious sticks or serious carrots to get people vaccinated.

If either of these were not true, then I would say “No. You cannot approve inferior vaccines simply because people are squeamish about the word ‘mRNA’.”

Isn't the FDA's responsibility to approve drugs that are safe and effective? If it was a case of inactivated virus vaccines being only 30% effective or something I'd agree, but as long as they have a useful level of effectiveness, it's not the FDA or any other drug approval ministry's job to pick winners.

MadJackal
Apr 30, 2004

Platystemon posted:

The U.S. should approve inactivated virus vaccines, but only because none of the first generation vaccines are sufficient for herd immunity and U.S. authorities are unwilling to use serious sticks or serious carrots to get people vaccinated.

If either of these were not true, then I would say “No. You cannot approve inferior vaccines simply because people are squeamish about the word ‘mRNA’.”

If antivaxxers were worried about mRNA alone, they’d have gotten J&J half a year ago.

Not being vaccinated is a personality trait for them now. There are those who fold once they’re told “get vaxed or get fired” and there are those who are so reflexively antagonistic that they would rather get sick and die rather than do the thing everyone around them told them to do for a year now.

fosborb
Dec 15, 2006



Chronic Good Poster

enki42 posted:

Isn't the FDA's responsibility to approve drugs that are safe and effective? If it was a case of inactivated virus vaccines being only 30% effective or something I'd agree, but as long as they have a useful level of effectiveness, it's not the FDA or any other drug approval ministry's job to pick winners.

They take many factors into account. See the FDA's approval and subsequent rapid rescinding of approval of the anti dementia drug that cost tens of thousands of dollars and had significant side effects. Clinical effectiveness did not change between those two decisions last year.

Gripweed
Nov 8, 2018

freebooter posted:

Fun fact: the Hitler mo was quite popular before he tainted it forever, reason being that lots of WWI soldiers adopted it because it didn't interfere with a gas mask seal

It's only tainted forever in the western world. There's lots of places where people don't think about Hitler when they see a toothbrush moustache.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


fosborb posted:

They take many factors into account. See the FDA's approval and subsequent rapid rescinding of approval of the anti dementia drug that cost tens of thousands of dollars and had significant side effects. Clinical effectiveness did not change between those two decisions last year.

The whole benefit vs risk analysis can be quite complex and can absolutely take into account the existing treatment landscape. If something is the only drug available for a serious and lethal disease for example they might be more willing to live with more harsh side effects that would have been showstoppers if another drug existed that did not have those side effects.

That being said delays in approval can often be the result of companies sending in absolute garbage submissions or unclear data and the FDA talking behind the scenes with them to try and get them to unfuck their submission.

However, the FDA guidance doc for COVID vaccine EUA (which is a different standard than full approval) does mention the following:



FDA posted:

Based on this declaration and determination, FDA may issue an EUA after FDA has determined that
the following statutory requirements are met (section 564 of the FD&C Act (21 U.S.C. 360bbb-3))
(Ref. 3):

• The chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) agent referred to in the March 27,
2020 EUA declaration by the Secretary of HHS (SARS-CoV-2) can cause a serious or life-
threatening disease or condition.

• Based on the totality of scientific evidence available, including data from adequate and well-
controlled trials, if available, it is reasonable to believe that the product may be effective to
prevent, diagnose, or treat such serious or life-threatening disease or condition that can be
caused by SARS-CoV-2.

• The known and potential benefits of the product, when used to diagnose, prevent, or treat the
identified serious or life-threatening disease or condition, outweigh the known and potential
risks of the product.

• There is no adequate, approved, and available alternative to the product for diagnosing,
preventing, or treating the disease or condition.


So it could also be a case of a company aiming for a quicker EUA when they now that there's plenty of approved and available alternatives they should have gone for a regular approval.

Mr Luxury Yacht fucked around with this message at 15:35 on Jan 7, 2022

dr_rat
Jun 4, 2001

MadJackal posted:

If antivaxxers were worried about mRNA alone, they’d have gotten J&J half a year ago.

Covid is a hoax so all vaccines are genetic!!!

But yeah oddly enough I have actually seen people wait for, then get the J&J. Which... okay I guess? Like they're vaxxed now, and happy to get a J&J booster, which not the most effective getting a booster the same as first vax, but at that point, fine. whatever.

The anti-vax movement is a massive mix of conspiracy theories and mis-information, many I don't think there is anything you could realistically do convince them have a shot, but others more on the fringe sometimes if you know them and what their specific head worms are, it can sometimes be possible to convince them to have the J&J shot or something.

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
#ATMLIVESMATTER

Put this Nazi-lover on ignore immediately!

fosborb posted:

They take many factors into account. See the FDA's approval and subsequent rapid rescinding of approval of the anti dementia drug that cost tens of thousands of dollars and had significant side effects. Clinical effectiveness did not change between those two decisions last year.

Sure, but I don't think they usually do things like say "this drug meets all our safety and effectiveness standards, but this other one is better so too bad".

Insanite
Aug 30, 2005

enki42 posted:

Sure, but I don't think they usually do things like say "this drug meets all our safety and effectiveness standards, but this other one is better so too bad".

Especially galling given the lack of anything for <5yos.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


enki42 posted:

Sure, but I don't think they usually do things like say "this drug meets all our safety and effectiveness standards, but this other one is better so too bad".

I think this more:

1. What's already available can affect the benefit part of benefit vs. risk calculation in some cases (moreso it nothing else is available or existing medications are inferior) depending on what's the risks or side effects of the medication are.

2. If it's for an EUA instead of a regular approval they absolutely might because if a superior alternative is widely available everywhere what's the emergency need for approval?

Looking at Covaxin in particular I could see some complications from the fact that they submitted a small (526 study subject) bridging study as their sole approval data. Said trial compared antibody levels of the study subjects to those of the larger phase 3 trial conducted on only 18+ participants. Considering Covaxin hasn't previously been submitted for 18+ approval (and isn't as far as I can tell in the US) and said larger study hasn't been reviewed by the FDA previously it's a bit of an odd and risky strategy.

Mr Luxury Yacht fucked around with this message at 16:08 on Jan 7, 2022

mediaphage
Mar 22, 2007

Excuse me, pardon me, sheer perfection coming through

Fritz the Horse posted:

don't worry you're fine just wearing masks as normal, please see this CDC graphic which includes your exact facial hair style for some reason



i refuse to shave my hulihee

Abner Assington
Mar 13, 2005

For I am a sinner in the hands of an angry god. Bloody Mary, full of vodka, blessed are you among cocktails. Pray for me now, at the hour of my death, which I hope is soon.

Amen.

Fritz the Horse posted:

don't worry you're fine just wearing masks as normal, please see this CDC graphic which includes your exact facial hair style for some reason


VILLAIN (Careful not to cross the seal).

Dr. Elsa Schneider:

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

the holy poopacy posted:

I think you're backwards on which side has 4x higher myocarditis incidence.

No, I did the same thing that you did, when I first looked at it. You have to look at the age stratification down below. I did get the number wrong though. It's a bit lower than infection for Pfizer, about 2x as high for Moderna.

quote:

Subgroup analyses by age showed that the increased risk of events associated with the two mRNA vaccines was present only in those aged under 40 years. For this age group, we estimated 2 (95% CI 1, 3) and 8 (95%CI 4, 9) excess cases of myocarditis per 1 million people receiving a first dose of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273, respectively, and 3 (95% CI 2, 4) and 15 (95%CI 12, 16) excess cases of myocarditis per 1 million people receiving a second dose of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273, respectively. This compares with ten (95% CI 7, 11) extra cases of myocarditis following a SARS-CoV-2 positive test in those aged under 40 years.


Of course, myocarditis is not the only thing to worry about, nor am I trying to say that you shouldn't get an mRNA vaccine (if I didn't enter the Novavax trial, I was very ready to be a Moderna Man). Just my point that there are things out there "in the data" that someone can index on.

Platystemon posted:

The U.S. should approve inactivated virus vaccines, but only because none of the first generation vaccines are sufficient for herd immunity and U.S. authorities are unwilling to use serious sticks or serious carrots to get people vaccinated.

If either of these were not true, then I would say “No. You cannot approve inferior vaccines simply because people are squeamish about the word ‘mRNA’.”

FWIW, I don't think we have the evidence that the protein subunit vaccines are inferior to the mRNAs. The Novavax performance against both the wildtype and alpha published in the NEJM look to be at worst comparable to, and possibly better than, the mRNAs, with a better safety profile. I'm unaware of data for Corbevax.

My understanding is that the primary benefit of the mRNA (and adenoviral) platform was at the point of production: instead of needing to produce tons of proteins and adjuvant (which is what appears to have slowed Novavax so much), you could put "instructions to produce" the proteins, and use the recipient's body as the spike factory. That was a really great innovation to get vaccines into the arms of the most vulnerable as quickly as possible. It doesn't mean it's necessarily the best long-term platform for vaccination.

MadJackal posted:

If antivaxxers were worried about mRNA alone, they’d have gotten J&J half a year ago.

Not being vaccinated is a personality trait for them now. There are those who fold once they’re told “get vaxed or get fired” and there are those who are so reflexively antagonistic that they would rather get sick and die rather than do the thing everyone around them told them to do for a year now.

As I said in my original post, this is overly simplistic. There are certainly people like this. There are other people who got a J&J primary series but don't want an mRNA booster. There are other people, mostly under 40, who have read about the myocarditis + blood clot risks and said okay, I'm going to be careful and wait for a protein subunit that has been an increasingly long time coming. A friend from college was advised by his doctor not to get an mRNA vaccine and wait for novavax (he ended up getting J&J when his work mandate hit).

It is true that vaccines are going to face an increasing problem in getting approved now that we can't run trials on naive populations in the U.S. It would help if other countries ran these trials and then we took their data seriously in cases where it is published, but we generally don't. There's a clear bias toward innovative therapies for their own sake I think — like, we're not approving some of these vaccines but we're approving Molnupiravir?

Petey fucked around with this message at 16:22 on Jan 7, 2022

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

We have to weigh the costs of school closures against the benefits of having all the kids get COVID from each other within 2 days of school being open and then schools immediately shutting down.

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there
Denmark - 7 January 2022

Number is down 25% which I really was hoping to see. Given the 6-7 day lag on hospitalizations, I expect that to stay high for several days.

Hoping number continues to drop tomorrow. Worried the case count is big enough even without big parties like Christmas and New Years to keep growing though.

Kids back in school. That may also drive up infections but kids don't seem to get very sick - exactly one person 10-19 and two aged 0-9 have died of COVID in Denmark out of 3,343 deaths.

pre:
Denmark Covid Cases
-----------------------------------
Jan 07  18,261 new cases, 1482 reinfections, 186 new hospitalizations (755 total), 78 ICU (-4), 53 Vent (+4), 10 dead  
Jan 06  25,995 new cases, 2027 reinfections, 161 new hospitalizations (756 total), 82 ICU (+2), 47 Vent (-2), 11 dead  
Jan 05  28,283 new cases, 2083 reinfections, 204 new hospitalizations (784 total), 80 ICU (+3), 49 Vent (+2), 15 dead  <-- NYE + Xmas ow
Jan 04* 23,372 new cases, 1701 reinfections, 229 new hospitalizations (792 total), 77 ICU (+4), 47 Vent (+1), 15 dead  <-- spike in hospital wow
Jan 03*  8,801 new cases,  532 reinfections, 169 new hospitalizations (770 total), 73 ICU (-3), 46 Vent (-4),  5 dead
Jan 02   7,550 new cases,  404 reinfections, 163 new hospitalizations (709 total), 76 ICU (+3), 50 Vent (+1), 15 dead
Jan 01  20,885 new cases, 1049 reinfections, 139 new hospitalizations (647 total), 73 ICU (+0), 49 Vent (+0),  5 dead
Dec 31  17,605 new cases, 1090 reinfections, 177 new hospitalizations (641 total), 73 ICU (-2), 49 Vent (-1), 11 dead
Dec 30  21,403 new cases, 1123 reinfections, 178 new hospitalizations (665 total), 75 ICU (-2), 50 Vent (-2),  9 dead
Dec 29  23,228 new cases, 1205 reinfections, 173 new hospitalizations (675 total), 77 ICU (+6), 52 Vent (+2), 16 dead
Dec 28  13,000 new cases,  670 reinfections, 177 new hospitalizations (666 total), 71 ICU (+1), 50 Vent (+4), 14 dead
Dec 27  16,164 new cases,  639 reinfections, 115 new hospitalizations (608 total), 70 ICU (-1), 46 Vent (-2),  7 dead
Dec 26  14,844 new cases,  644 reinfections, 123 new hospitalizations (579 total), 71 ICU (-2), 43 Vent (+1), 13 dead
Dec 25  10,027 new cases,  463 reinfections,  86 new hospitalizations (522 total), 73 ICU (-1), 44 Vent (+5), 10 dead
Dec 24  11,229 new cases,  527 reinfections, 134 new hospitalizations (509 total), 74 ICU (+2), 39 vent (+1), 14 dead
Dec 23  12,487 new cases,  613 reinfections, 158 new hospitalizations (541 total), 72 ICU (+6), 38 vent (+1), 15 dead
Dec 22  13,386 new cases,  531 reinfections, 126 new hospitalizations (524 total), 66 ICU (-1), 37 vent (+2), 14 dead 
Dec 21  13,558 new cases,  501 reinfections, 121 new hospitalizations (526 total), 67 ICU (+1), 35 vent (+2), 17 dead
Dec 20  10,082 new cases,  (no reinf. data),  85 new hospitalizations (581 total), 66 ICU (+3), 33 vent (-2),  8 dead
Dec 19   8,212 new cases
Dec 18   8,594 new cases
Dec 17  11,194 new cases
Dec 16   9,999 new cases
Dec 15   8,773 new cases,  ??? reinfections,  96 new hospitalizations (508 total), 66 ICU (+0), 43 vent (-3),  9 dead
Dec 13   7,799 new cases,  ??? reinfections,  61 new hospitalizations (480 total), 64 ICU (-1), 42 vent (0),   9 dead
Dec 12   5,989 new cases,  ??? reinfections,  82 new hospitalizations (468 total), 65 ICU (+5), 42 vent (+6),  9 dead
Dec 08   6,629 new cases,  ??? reinfections,  72 new hospitalizations (461 total), 66 ICU (-1), 38 vent (-1),  7 dead
Dec 01   5,120 new cases,  ??? reinfections,  88 new hospitalizations (439 total), 35 ICU (+1), 35 vent (+1), 14 dead
 
From rkkp.dk, who track ICU bed availability bi-weekly in Denmark (https://www.rkkp.dk/kvalitetsdatabaser/databaser/dansk-intensiv-database/resultater/)

pre:
03 January  	331 ICU beds, 76 COVID, 32 available
27 December	316 ICU beds, 71 COVID, 62 available 
20 December 	317 ICU beds, 60 COVID, 59 available
13 December 	319 ICU beds, 64 COVID, 39 available
06 December 	310 ICU beds, 67 COVID, 10 available <-- squeaky bum time here
29 November	318 ICU beds, 61 COVID, 25 available
In early 2021, Denmark had 400 ICU beds available, and a combination of ramping down to 340 or so, plus a strike by Danish nurses in July that resulted in the government ending the strike has probably been the cause of a drop to under 320 beds nationally. From the stats it is clear that non-COVID ICU patient counts have been lowered, resulting in more free ICU beds.


Since yesterday, rates per 100,000 population.


pre:
                                  Unvaccinated              Partial           Full                           Unvaccinated    Partial    Full
07 JAN    New cases:                     413.9                365.6          272.3    Hospitalizations:              41.3       30.6   10.2
06 JAN    New cases:                     566.3                561.1          398.6    Hospitalizations:              40.4       33.9   10.3
05 JAN    New cases:                     586.9                576.8          445.9    Hospitalizations:              43.0       30.6   10.5
04 JAN*   New cases:                     512.2                533.3          390.8    Hospitalizations:              43.6       28.9   11.0
03 JAN*   New cases:                     165.6                153.7          135.7    Hospitalizations:              42.2       23.4   10.5
02 JAN    New cases:                     152.8                150.7          124.7    Hospitalizations:              41.4       18.7    9.5
01 JAN    New cases:                     437.8                413.6          331.2    Hospitalizations:              38.6       18.4    8.6
31 DEC    New cases:                     341.1                334.2          300.2    Hospitalizations:              37.8       20.7    8.6
30 DEC    New cases:                     409.2                391.5          345.5    Hospitalizations:              39.4       21.1    8.9
29 DEC    New cases:                     443.6                446.0          377.4    Hospitalizations:              40.1       18.5    9.1
28 DEC    New cases:                     237.3                208.2          210.2    Hospitalizations:              40.5       16.9    8.6
27 DEC    New cases:                     304.4                324.9          263.3    Hospitalizations:              40.0       15.8    7.8
26 DEC    New cases:                     310.4                274.9          241.2    Hospitalizations:              39.0       15.4    7.3
25 DEC    New cases:                     181.6                162.1          161.5    Hospitalizations:              33.9       16.0    6.8
24 DEC    New cases:                     184.1                173.0          182.1    Hospitalizations:              34.5       14.9    7.1
23 DEC    New cases:                     237.1                202.6          197.9    Hospitalizations:              35.4       16.2    7.5
22 DEC    New cases:                     257.1                198.1          211.7    Hospitalizations:              34.2       15.3    7.3
21 DEC    New cases:                     270.1                226.2          207.8    Hospitalizations:              32.9       14.3    7.5
20 DEC    New cases:                     201.2                154.4          149.0    Hospitalizations:              34.0       15.6    7.7
17 DEC    New cases:                     252.1                199.3          172.9    Hospitalizations:              31.0       14.9    6.8
15 DEC    New cases:                     216.0                153.3          121.6    Hospitalizations:              31.3       11.7    6.7
13 DEC    New cases:                     215.3                131.3          100.8    Hospitalizations:              29.8       11.5    6.6
08 DEC    New cases:                     193.5                126.9           80.9    Hospitalizations:              27.5        8.7    6.5
01 DEC    New cases:                     162.4                102.1          59.84    Hospitalizations:              24.6       11.3    6.1
25 NOV    New cases:                     134.7                120.9          52.97    Hospitalizations:              21.9        7.2    5.9
Report on PCR tests for Omicron as a percentage of variant tests hit various levels on various days:
pre:
1.77% on 1 December
4.8% on 6 December
10% on 8 December
22% on 12 December
37% on 14 December
50% on 17 December
60% on 20 December
70% on 21 December
74% on 22 December
81% on 24 December 
84% on 26 December
86% on 27 December
92% on 29 December
93.6% on 01 January

Sources:
https://covid19.ssi.dk/overvagningsdata/download-fil-med-overvaagningdata
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/242ec2acc014456295189631586f1d26
https://covid19.ssi.dk/virusvarianter/delta-pcr

Rust Martialis fucked around with this message at 16:20 on Jan 7, 2022

Karl Barks
Jan 21, 1981

Fritz the Horse posted:

don't worry you're fine just wearing masks as normal, please see this CDC graphic which includes your exact facial hair style for some reason



Goons are excited to see goatees and soul patches are kosher.

Alctel
Jan 16, 2004

I love snails


crepeface posted:

hey dumbass, we know you still believe that lockdowns don't work because victoria hosed theirs up despite a million people telling you how they were flawed over and over, but modernmajorgeneral is talking about australia, not just melbourne. feds/NSW definitely brought it on themselves and then hosed over everyone else

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Isn't that his point though

It's so infectious you can do everything perfectly and still catch it if the person/state/province/country next to you is a twat

virtualboyCOLOR
Dec 22, 2004

Alctel posted:

Isn't that his point though

It's so infectious you can do everything perfectly and still catch it if the person/state/province/country next to you is a twat

Even China has seen a bump (of less than 300 per day).

Meanwhile in America

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1479262149507792897?s=20

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1479247340875788291?s=20

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1479277594461839362?s=20

It’s crazy that we thought covid under Trump was god awful and yet with vaccines Biden is still worse at controlling this thing.

At least the free tests will be available soon (after you google it and request it online).

virtualboyCOLOR fucked around with this message at 17:33 on Jan 7, 2022

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PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Karl Barks posted:

Goons are excited to see goatees and soul patches are kosher.

Doing the Zappa here.

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