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Which horse film is your favorite?
This poll is closed.
Black Beauty 2 1.06%
A Talking Pony!?! 4 2.13%
Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor 117 62.23%
War Horse 11 5.85%
Mr. Hands 54 28.72%
Total: 188 votes
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MadJackal
Apr 30, 2004

https://twitter.com/govrondesantis/status/1478716663134572546?s=21

https://twitter.com/govrondesantis/status/1478524144828534791?s=21

Clearly Biden needs to pontificate more to The People and all of this is on him.

A Death Cult is in charge of half the country and blaming Biden of all people for CHUDs not vaccinating and acting like plague rats is typical online Lefty pouting about those pesky Libs who agree with them on merely 90% of everything.

MadJackal fucked around with this message at 22:49 on Jan 7, 2022

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virtualboyCOLOR
Dec 22, 2004

MadJackal posted:

Clearly Biden needs to pontificate more to The People and all of this is on him.

A Death Cult is on charge of half the country and blaming Biden of all people for CHUDs not vaccinating and acting like plague rats is typical online Lefty pouting about those pesky Libs who agree with them on merely 90% of everything.

And it can’t be both CHUDS and “pesky libs”?

That is what it seems is being implied here

Wang Commander
Dec 27, 2003

by sebmojo

Professor Beetus posted:

The vaccines and their associated boosters are still keeping most vaccinated folks out of the hospital and the grave, knock this poo poo off.

This should not be off-limits to discussion.

The original vaccines were nearly sterilizing and were more than capable of being used, alone and with near-perfect uptake and booster uptake, to eliminate wildtype/alpha/delta. We got drat close over the summer, and the US has abandoned all NPIs based on the efficacy of the vaccine.

The vaccine no longer works very well to control infection, because of Omicron.

Given long covid risks to vaccinated mild cases, and the mutation rate of covid, and the trend towards vaccine escape, we cannot persist without sharply reducing cases. School system and healthcare system are basically collapsed at this point, and there is no road to their recovery given a wave like this every 3 months.

The mRNA technology was heralded as being able to be quickly revised and updated. Therefore, in the absence of NPIs, with covid being unendurable indefinitely, we are left only with the option of updated, mandatory vaccines. It's that, lockdowns, or collapse.

dwarf74
Sep 2, 2012



Buglord

virtualboyCOLOR posted:

I dunno what you are referring to here. Biden isn’t getting out of office unless he dies, is impeached, his term ends. This is silly.

I’m pointing out that, under Biden, cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are higher than the standard he gave the previous president in cracking down on covid. Should we hold Biden to the same standard?

You don’t have to answer that question. It’s rhetorical obviously. Of course Biden bears the ultimate responsibility here.
Of course it's rhetorical. It's a political campaign staffer tweet. On, needless to say, Twitter, a platform which impedes or eliminates nuance by its very nature. During a presidential campaign in which nuance is poison. You're doing that same thing where dems were looking up old Trump tweets and laughing.

If you sincerely can't see any difference in the situation the administrations are responding to in 2022 vs 2020 then I just don't know what to tell you. You're just hunting for "gotchas."

Because you're Blue Twitter.

Professor Beetus
Apr 12, 2007

They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

Wang Commander posted:

This should not be off-limits to discussion.

The original vaccines were nearly sterilizing and were more than capable of being used, alone and with near-perfect uptake and booster uptake, to eliminate wildtype/alpha/delta. We got drat close over the summer, and the US has abandoned all NPIs based on the efficacy of the vaccine.

The vaccine no longer works very well to control infection, because of Omicron.

Given long covid risks to vaccinated mild cases, and the mutation rate of covid, and the trend towards vaccine escape, we cannot persist without sharply reducing cases. School system and healthcare system are basically collapsed at this point, and there is no road to their recovery given a wave like this every 3 months.

The mRNA technology was heralded as being able to be quickly revised and updated. Therefore, in the absence of NPIs, with covid being unendurable indefinitely, we are left only with the option of updated, mandatory vaccines. It's that, lockdowns, or collapse.

So qualify that when you make statments about vaccine effectiveness instead of blanket statements like the vaccines are outdated. They still largely prevent hospitalization and death which for the average person is going to be the most important part.

Argue for NPIs all you want, I agree with you, but stop making statements which can easily be interpreted as "vaccines don't work, period."

dwarf74
Sep 2, 2012



Buglord
What are the long covid risks in vaccinated mild cases? I actually don't know. My understanding was that a lot of long covid (not all but a lot) were due to bad cases loving over your body for an extended bad illness. Or, effects from covid being allowed to kill your lung tissue and blood vessels for a few weeks.

It's way too early to know of long covid risks in omicron, but is there a reason to believe they'll be similar to those in other variants? (Or reasons to believe they won't?) This one's breaking so many of the rules we've learned since early 2020.

Wang Commander
Dec 27, 2003

by sebmojo

dwarf74 posted:

What are the long covid risks in vaccinated mild cases? I actually don't know. My understanding was that a lot of long covid (not all but a lot) were due to bad cases loving over your body for an extended bad illness. Or, effects from covid being allowed to kill your lung tissue and blood vessels for a few weeks.

It's way too early to know of long covid risks in omicron, but is there a reason to believe they'll be similar to those in other variants? (Or reasons to believe they won't?) This one's breaking so many of the rules we've learned since early 2020.

Just this week I've seen long covid figures ranging between 1% and 77% so uh yeah. I don't think a lot of these studies are very well-constructed even once you get past the "my long covid support group poll indicates an epidemic of penis shrinkage"

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


Even the definition of long COVID is so broad it lumps together people who have lingering symptoms at 30 days (even if they resolve after) and people who have loss of smell and serious shortness of breath six months later. It really needs to be better defined (or better differentiated on a spectrum in studies).

Solkanar512
Dec 28, 2006

by the sex ghost

Wang Commander posted:

We had lockdowns, ubi, and developed a vaccine back then! Now it's open Biden and slam the same outdated vaxx forever

Please explain, in detail, what exactly President Biden is supposed to do about the sheriff in Snohomish County who refuses to enforce any anti-COVID measures instituted by the Governor of Washington.

dwarf74
Sep 2, 2012



Buglord

Wang Commander posted:

Just this week I've seen long covid figures ranging between 1% and 77% so uh yeah. I don't think a lot of these studies are very well-constructed even once you get past the "my long covid support group poll indicates an epidemic of penis shrinkage"
Yeah unfortunately that seems to be the case a lot with long covid. I get that it's less sexy to research than current-covid but we're two years in now, and it's disappointing there's not more scientific consensus as to mechanisms, causes, or even prevalence.

I was hoping I'd missed something.

Good Soldier Svejk
Jul 5, 2010

dwarf74 posted:

Yeah unfortunately that seems to be the case a lot with long covid. I get that it's less sexy to research than current-covid but we're two years in now, and it's disappointing there's not more scientific consensus as to mechanisms, causes, or even prevalence.

I was hoping I'd missed something.

This article came out recently - don't know the validity but it's interesting and strange enough it could be true: https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1479319647778390017?s=20

Wang Commander
Dec 27, 2003

by sebmojo

Solkanar512 posted:

Please explain, in detail, what exactly President Biden is supposed to do about the sheriff in Snohomish County who refuses to enforce any anti-COVID measures instituted by the Governor of Washington.

I'm sure there's something in his travel, phone records, internet history, photos, purchases, etc. that would provide sufficient leverage.

dwarf74
Sep 2, 2012



Buglord

Good Soldier Svejk posted:

This article came out recently - don't know the validity but it's interesting and strange enough it could be true:
I am certainly not qualified enough to evaluate this - but I have also seen people "solve" it as an auto-immune disorder and several other things by now. But I appreciate the added info - and this is probably one more cause of another thing we'd lump under the umbrella of 'long covid'. I was honestly hoping there was some kind of consensus by now that I'd missed.

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!

Wang Commander posted:

I'm sure there's something in his travel, phone records, internet history, photos, purchases, etc. that would provide sufficient leverage.

hmm I don't think blackmail is a great solution actually

Suzera
Oct 6, 2021

This spell rocks. It'll pop you right out of that funk.
E: I just woke up from a nap, lemme redo this a bit.

Suzera fucked around with this message at 21:42 on Jan 7, 2022

virtualboyCOLOR
Dec 22, 2004

Solkanar512 posted:

Please explain, in detail, what exactly President Biden is supposed to do about the sheriff in Snohomish County who refuses to enforce any anti-COVID measures instituted by the Governor of Washington.

I dunno. How did we handle racial integration in schools?

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there

Wang Commander posted:

Therefore, in the absence of NPIs, with covid being unendurable indefinitely, we are left only with the option of updated, mandatory vaccines. It's that, lockdowns, or collapse.

There are places that do not mandate vaccines, aren't locked down, and aren't collapsing.

There is also no way that a vaccine for omicron would be available in time to vaccinate any nontrivial number of people.

"Hey, whip up a few billion doses in a few weeks, ship them around the planet, get them in a few billion arms."

Omicron went from nothing to the dominant strain in under 60 days *globally*. And the first 30 days were spent burning through SA. It took a month to dominate Denmark from zero. Let's say they had an omicron mRNA vaccine on 01 December. No time to test it, obviously. We need several billion doses, which is more than the annual production of Moderna, and we have a week to make it. Then ship a few billion doses, then inject people and give them a week or two to let it take effect.

Your model has a few problems, like needing a time machine.

Suzera
Oct 6, 2021

This spell rocks. It'll pop you right out of that funk.

Illuminti posted:

I got those numbers from here.

https://covidlive.com.au/

Also the fact that the vast majority of Australia's cases will be Omicron night make the figures seem different
I figured the model would be for a small subset, like NSW.

In either case, the vast majority of cases now in Australia have not yet had time to go to the ICU or die yet so unless the people of Australia are miraculously impervious to covid you're almost certainly already baked in for blowing way past the predictions in that model for the next month. If you see less than .1% cfr barring a miracle (like omicron being 10% as lethal as delta which is looking ever increasingly unlikely as time goes on), it's going to be because of something like an immensely more comprehensive and successful testing program than any other nation has accomplished detecting many times more low or no symptom infections than other nations might. So you're almost certainly baked in for, optimistically, assuming 100% of the country was vaxed at the optimal time, assuming everyone infected prior to dec 8 who was going to die has died already, and anyone infected after dec 8 has a .1% cfr, the deaths from the cases after dec 8 up to now for NSW are about

380k cases total - 80k from before dec 8 = 300k cases
300k cases * .1% cfr = 300 deaths from cases between dec 8 and now in NSW alone (and most of which will not have died yet as of today)

And this is about the rosiest estimate I would produce from today for going forward for the next similar time frame. I would stake a guess at a ratio several times higher than this for deaths cause from dec 8 to now, largely due to the double vax rate being about 77% instead of 100%.

If I had to hazard a charitable guess, it would still be that the model output might be using a much rosier case estimate as input.

E: Looking at the deaths for NSW, 170 have died between dec 8 and now, some of which would be pre-dec 8 infections, so a majority of the 300 predicted here are still to happen.

E2: The hidden implication here I'm relying on is also that ICU admits are going to be higher than deaths since the originally posted article only had "in icu".

Suzera fucked around with this message at 22:46 on Jan 7, 2022

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
#ATMLIVESMATTER

Put this Nazi-lover on ignore immediately!
The team sports things is tiring every single time it happens. No one is ever in here saying "wow, COVID sure seems bad. Good thing President Biden is here to save us all!", so I don't see much advantage of suffixing every post with "wow, look how bad the dems specifically are."

Comparing Trump to Biden is apples to oranges for a thousand different reasons, some in Biden's favour some in Trumps. The US is also much more complicated than just who happens to be president, and other countries that work like federations manage to talk about different experiences in different sub-national entities without pinning everything on the federal head of government. It makes very little sense at all to talk about a shared US experience when from everything I've heard the approach to COVID is drastically different between Florida and California.

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there

Fritz the Horse posted:

hmm I don't think blackmail is a great solution actually

To see someone harming the interests of the masses and yet not feel indignant, or dissuade or stop him or reason with him, but to allow him to continue. This is an eighth type of liberalism.

Good Soldier Svejk
Jul 5, 2010

enki42 posted:

The team sports things is tiring every single time it happens. No one is ever in here saying "wow, COVID sure seems bad. Good thing President Biden is here to save us all!", so I don't see much advantage of suffixing every post with "wow, look how bad the dems specifically are."

Comparing Trump to Biden is apples to oranges for a thousand different reasons, some in Biden's favour some in Trumps. The US is also much more complicated than just who happens to be president, and other countries that work like federations manage to talk about different experiences in different sub-national entities without pinning everything on the federal head of government. It makes very little sense at all to talk about a shared US experience when from everything I've heard the approach to COVID is drastically different between Florida and California.

If anything, my biggest takeaway from both administrations is that the federal mechanisms of the government are absolutely incapable of reacting to sudden crisis, even if the people in charge had the desire to actually do so.

Its preferred state is a slow, meandering grind if not outright gridlock

We would be and will be utterly hosed if COVID ever becomes something worse than the incredibly bad thing it currently is and it doesn't even have to be worse by that much

Professor Beetus
Apr 12, 2007

They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus
https://www.king5.com/article/news/...90-1f101526bd96

This suggests that the Governor's office does have some oversight, but also that they are looking into potential criminal charges; I would assume perjury. Since state mask and vaccine mandates aren't laws, I have no idea if that could be used to remove a county Sheriff and some quick googling didn't result in any precedent I could find (specifically for Washington State).

lil poopendorfer
Nov 13, 2014

by the sex ghost

Solkanar512 posted:

Please explain, in detail, what exactly President Biden is supposed to do about the sheriff in Snohomish County who refuses to enforce any anti-COVID measures instituted by the Governor of Washington.

he should have him arrested and tried for treason, using the emergency powers available to him.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

lil poopendorfer posted:

he should have him arrested and tried for treason, using the emergency powers available to him.

treason, as has been explained to death in various permutations of the US News/Current Events thread, is incredibly hard to prove in the US by design of the founding fathers who were for some reason obsessed with the idea of a too-powerful head of state using it on their political enemies willy-nilly.

Gio
Jun 20, 2005


Hear me out.

Is it possible to say, I dunno, “Biden sucks” without caveats, rationalizations, and equivocations? Because he sucks poo poo and his administration is actively aiding and abetting the spread of COVID in ways that have nothing to do with Republicans, chuds etc.

Just a thought.

Gio fucked around with this message at 22:26 on Jan 7, 2022

MadJackal
Apr 30, 2004

https://twitter.com/TexasGOP/status/1479529037949292549?s=20

https://twitter.com/TexasGOP/status/1479561642618851343?s=20

Biden strikes again!

lil poopendorfer
Nov 13, 2014

by the sex ghost

Oracle posted:

treason, as has been explained to death in various permutations of the US News/Current Events thread, is incredibly hard to prove in the US by design of the founding fathers who were for some reason obsessed with the idea of a too-powerful head of state using it on their political enemies willy-nilly.

Ok, sedition or whatever the legal term is for "willfully assisting an existential threat to the nation"

FDR put the Japanese in camps using his emergency powers, I'm sure the current administration could think of something.

Gio
Jun 20, 2005


Professor Beetus posted:

The vaccines and their associated boosters are still keeping most vaccinated folks out of the hospital and the grave, knock this poo poo off.
The best way to protect vulnerable people is to slow/stop COVID from spreading. A small percentage of a very large number is a very large number. Currently, the vaccines are not stopping COVID from spreading to unmanageable levels yet there does not appear to be near the amount of impetus there should be to update the vaccine because we’re solipsistically saying, “Well the vaccine protects me.”

I would considering them outdated and in need of an update.

I see nothing wrong with that statement, and someone saying it shouldn’t also have to guard their statement with qualifiers like, “Yes the vaccines is the best protection you can get, it’s doing a great job of keeping people out of the hospital and from dying etc. etc.” The vast majority of this thread is boosted, and I’m sure many are pondering whether they need a fourth shot.

Also—

People are fully vaccinated and they are dying. This does not mean the vaccines are worthless or not good, but not acknowledging their deaths and rationalizing them away like “some”* have is dehumanizing these individuals as disposable or acceptable collateral damage.

*

How are u posted:

We all realize it. It is not good.

And as the hospital data I posted shows, there are many fully vaccinated people in the hospital, in the ICU, and on ventilators. Acknowledging this is not anti-vaxx nor is it saying the vaccines don’t work.

virtualboyCOLOR
Dec 22, 2004

Gio posted:

Hear me out.

Is it possible to say, I dunno, “Biden sucks” without caveats, rationalizations, and equivocations? Because he sucks poo poo and his administration is actively aiding and abetting the spread of COVID in ways that have nothing to do with Republicans, chuds etc.

Just a thought.


i’m in awe of these posts one after the other. Truly magical.




lil poopendorfer posted:

Ok, sedition or whatever the legal term is for "willfully assisting an existential threat to the nation"

FDR put the Japanese in camps using his emergency powers, I'm sure the current administration could think of something.

What did we do to desegregate schools again?


vvvvv we used concentration camps to desegregate schools??? God drat.

virtualboyCOLOR fucked around with this message at 22:42 on Jan 7, 2022

Pastamania
Mar 5, 2012

You cannot know.
The things I've seen.
The things I've done.
The things he made me do.
lol the threads finally come around to loving concentration camps

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there

lil poopendorfer posted:

Ok, sedition or whatever the legal term is for "willfully assisting an existential threat to the nation"

FDR put the Japanese in camps using his emergency powers, I'm sure the current administration could think of something.

"This leopard will never eat *my* face", said the man wrapping his head in slices of raw meat. "It only eats the faces of true enemies of the State!"

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

Professor Beetus posted:

Again, most people aren't going to have any choice whether to expose themselves to the virus or not, it doesn't make them sociopaths because they live in society. We don't have a meaningful social safety net to allow people to keep themselves and their children isolated, especially not with how easily transmitted Omicron seems to be.

Yeah with two incomes being necessary for most families to keep their head above water, and parents being forced back into work to make the Dow go back up, I don't see any way you're not going to end up with record numbers of hospitalizations among kids under 5 no matter what kind of people Americans are. What alternatives do people have to sending kids to school? Leave their toddlers at home to watch themselves all day? Quit their jobs and eventually get evicted and end up in a crowded homeless shelter where they're even more likely to catch covid anyway?

Once the powers that be decided that the pandemic was to be ignored and the people shoved into its maw, this outcome was inevitable. We even had an election and ousted the former guy and it made no difference, who were people who wanted to unselfishly protect kids going to vote for, the guy who would tell them to gently caress off or the guy who would tell them to gently caress off and also wore too much orange tanner?

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

lil poopendorfer posted:

FDR put the Japanese in camps using his emergency powers, I'm sure the current administration could think of something.

Yes, let's take what is widely considered one of the worst uses of federal power in US history as our aspirational model

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

haveblue posted:

Yes, let's take what is widely considered one of the worst uses of federal power in US history as our aspirational model

No, the point of that statement is "if that crime against humanity was permissible, then surely there exists a legal way to ensure a sheriff is enforcing the laws of their jurisdiction, which is a perfectly reasonable thing to be able to coerce."

StrugglingHoneybun
Jan 2, 2005

Aint no thing like me, 'cept me.
Would be easier to round them up and vax them en mass

We could even use the abandoned walmart each small town has for a staging area

CAT INTERCEPTOR
Nov 9, 2004

Basically a male Margaret Thatcher

lil poopendorfer posted:

Ok, sedition or whatever the legal term is for "willfully assisting an existential threat to the nation"

FDR put the Japanese in camps using his emergency powers, I'm sure the current administration could think of something.

Jesus loving christ, using literal concentration camps as justification to use powers? You really need to stop and think what you said there

virtualboyCOLOR
Dec 22, 2004

CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:

Jesus loving christ, using literal concentration camps as justification to use powers? You really need to stop and think what you said there

Hey how did we did to desegregate schools when local areas decided not to?

Maybe governors/Biden could do that?

Or do we just want to do a silly pile on and ignore past solutions?

StrugglingHoneybun
Jan 2, 2005

Aint no thing like me, 'cept me.
They were just saying the legal avenue exists, not that we need to follow that avenue way past the "bridge out" sign to the place of the old ways.


On the road that was used for bad things, a turn-off to "dont let people be in charge of fixing things they are actively causing", and that is a good place, and we should repair the road to at least that exit.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


virtualboyCOLOR posted:

Hey how did we did to desegregate schools when local areas decided not to?

Maybe governors/Biden could do that?

Or do we just want to do a silly pile on and ignore past solutions?

Is the Supreme Court going to rule in favor of enforcing those measures? Because Brown v. Board of Education was pretty key in enabling that federal response and current signs don't look good.

Like you really can't say "Enforced a Supreme Court ruling" is the same thing as "Just unilaterally do it" in the context of how the US is set up.

Like there might be other examples you could find that would be a better fit but school desegregation is a pretty poor comparison given the key role of court actions.

Mr Luxury Yacht fucked around with this message at 22:57 on Jan 7, 2022

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virtualboyCOLOR
Dec 22, 2004

Mr Luxury Yacht posted:

Is the Supreme Court going to rule in favor of enforcing those measures? Because Brown v. Board of Education was pretty key in enabling that federal response and current signs don't look good.

They already have ruled that state mandates are allowed yes:

https://www.npr.org/2021/12/13/1063923911/supreme-court-again-leaves-state-vaccine-mandate-in-place-for-healthcare-workers

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