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BrigadierSensible
Feb 16, 2012

I've got a pocket full of cheese🧀, and a garden full of trees🌴.

Seeing as we are already in electioneering mode from both major parties.

When is the latest that ScoMo can officially call the election? Coz the bastard will drag it out till the last possible second 1)in the hopes that COVID/all his popularity problems will just magically go away, and 2) to enjoy every last second of being PM.

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SMILLENNIALSMILLEN
Jun 26, 2009



thursday i think

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Senate has to go to election by May 21st, so latest he could call it would be mid April.

The full chaos option is that the lower house doesn't need to go to an election until September, so he could in theory call a Senate election for early in the year, and then a second one for the Reps later in the year. That would be a full on admission that he thinks he's going to lose though so would be very unlikely to happen.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Phigs posted:

The list of essential workers was way too large for starters. Then the PPE requirements and enforcement for those workers was woefully short. Anybody not involved in medicine, food supply, or utilities (and probably some others I'm not thinking of) should be home. And by food supply I don't mean ubereats. Everybody else works from home or gets centrelink money.

Remember how construction was still going on? I think people hear "harder" and think it means more burdensome, but a harder lockdown mostly just means more government involvement to allow more people to lockdown and ensure the safety of those who can't, not making lockdown harder on the individual. It would be a loving logistical nightmare for sure, but the government should be able to handle it.

I agree that e.g. construction didn't need to be running (it only was because Dan wanted to make hay while the sun shone) but for example Sydney shut construction down and still saw case rises. The amount of medical workers, utility workers, food supply/production and logistics workers, supermarket workers, emergency services workers etc is clearly sufficient enough to have a very large bulk of the population that simply has to travel to work daily.

Ditto with stuff like handing out N95s or whatever - sure it would help, but not to drive it down to zero again. I've seen nurses at the Alfred with their masks down around their necks chatting to each other over lunch; I've had countless delivery drivers and posties dicknose while getting people to sign for packages. No system is going to get 100% compliance and unfortunately with Delta and especially Omicron it seems like close to 100% compliance is what we'd need. We could manage elimination even with the inevitable holes in the net when we had a smaller outbreak and a less infectious variant, but that ship has sailed. It sucks but it is what it is.

Senor Tron posted:

Senate has to go to election by May 21st, so latest he could call it would be mid April.

The full chaos option is that the lower house doesn't need to go to an election until September, so he could in theory call a Senate election for early in the year, and then a second one for the Reps later in the year. That would be a full on admission that he thinks he's going to lose though so would be very unlikely to happen.

If I were in his shoes I'd aim for March, and if he's lucky the fresh Omicron wave dies out and life returns somewhat to normal before we get smashed by an autumn wave or a new variant or something.

edit - when's the next state election? Anecdotally a lot of people in SA, Tasmania and Queensland seem quite pissed about the borders opening just in time for an Omicron treat.

bandaid.friend
Apr 25, 2017

:obama:My first car was a stick:obama:

ungulateman posted:

thanks mr epidemiologist who has clearly done the bare minimum of at least googling what 'herd immunity' is

Seems obvious to me Testicle Masochist is on about the herd immunity strategy as pushed by conservatives which yeah a lot of idiots still believe in

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


freebooter posted:


edit - when's the next state election? Anecdotally a lot of people in SA, Tasmania and Queensland seem quite pissed about the borders opening just in time for an Omicron treat.

SA state election is March.

BOAT SHOWBOAT
Oct 11, 2007

who do you carry the torch for, my young man?

bandaid.friend posted:

Seems obvious to me Testicle Masochist is on about the herd immunity strategy as pushed by conservatives which yeah a lot of idiots still believe in

Herd immunity is a real phenomenon and not just a right wing meme. The way it was pushed early in the pandemic with no one vaccinated and to advocate mass deaths and no lockdowns was stupid

Talking about herd immunity now with the pandemic moving to endemic and 90% of people fully vaccinated is not the same story

lih
May 15, 2013

Just a friendly reminder of what it looks like.

We'll do punctuation later.
two doses of vaccines do little-to-nothing to stop the spread of omicron though, we're going to have to wait before most of the population is boosted before we really see benefits in terms of slowing down the spread directly from vaccines.

it will probably peak before then (the next few weeks does seem reasonable considering south africa) just from having ripped through the population so quickly, but that doesn't really mean we can't get another wave in a few months, we've seen that happen all over the place before.

bandaid.friend
Apr 25, 2017

:obama:My first car was a stick:obama:

BOAT SHOWBOAT posted:

Herd immunity is a real phenomenon and not just a right wing meme. The way it was pushed early in the pandemic with no one vaccinated and to advocate mass deaths and no lockdowns was stupid

Talking about herd immunity now with the pandemic moving to endemic and 90% of people fully vaccinated is not the same story
OP was asking about evidence for the fairy story though, the fairy story that's still around. People believe once you get infected you won't get covid again thanks to "natural immunity", which they believe genuinely makes you extremely resistant, and they will continue to believe this even if they personally have been infected more than once. They believe the virus is certain to evolve into something benign. They believe once everyone gets the virus there won't be any danger

I vaguely remember the NSW CHO saying 98% two-dose vaccination rate was the point at which it was probably safe to drop restrictions. The NSW government decided 95% was fine. That was before the vaccine-resistant Omicron landed. I don't think a genuine herd immunity from covid is within the realm of possibility

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS
There's no prospect of herd immunity from infection with covid right now since omicron has little difficulty infecting vaccinated and previously infected people.

It might be achievable at some point in the future should a later generation vaccine provide sterilizing immunity to omicron and any other variants, or if some combination of vaccination and infection (or multiple infections) leads to a broad and long lasting immune response.

Currently the best hope is that the majority of the population has resistance to serious illness via vaccination. Overseas a lot (possibly most) of the population has already been infected and has some resistance even if they haven't been vaccinated. Here anyone unvaccinated is very unlikely to have a previous infection so omicron has around 8% of the population it can hit hard.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

bandaid.friend posted:

OP was asking about evidence for the fairy story though, the fairy story that's still around. People believe once you get infected you won't get covid again thanks to "natural immunity", which they believe genuinely makes you extremely resistant, and they will continue to believe this even if they personally have been infected more than once.

Pushing this too far is wishful thinking, but previous infections do give a person some resistance to reinfection and serious illness. That's why novel viruses can be so dangerous (because nobody on the planet has an immune system with any prior experience of dealing with them or something like them) and why, for example, the Spanish flu affected younger people worse than older people (because it was similar to influenza strains that had circulated when those older people had been younger and therefore had already built some resistance to).

Senor Tron posted:

SA state election is March.

Lol, yikes

Megillah Gorilla
Sep 22, 2003

If only all of life's problems could be solved by smoking a professor of ancient evil texts.



Bread Liar
From ABC24's NSW presser with Perrottet, "Children should return to school on day one" of term.

Yep, can't see how that could possibly go wrong.


Also, banning singing and dancing in pubs. loving lol, what universe does this chucklefuck thing we live in?



freebooter posted:

How would you suggest we go about enforcing that harsher lockdown when we had trouble even enforcing the "small ball lockdown" in Melbourne in 2021? How would a harsher lockdown help reach elimination given that, in both Sydney and Melbourne, a huge driver of infections was essential workers who would be turning up to their workplace regardless of how harsh a lockdown is?

Front page of The Arse yesterday was a call to reduce isolation times for workers :toot:

Aware
Nov 18, 2003


Kek

ColtMcAsskick
Nov 7, 2010
From now on I will only drink in pubs with externally accessible beer gardens. I am willing to make this sacrifice for the good of the public.

Laserface
Dec 24, 2004

Megillah Gorilla posted:

Also, banning singing and dancing in pubs. loving lol, what universe does this chucklefuck thing we live in?


Literally believes that the majority of Australians are like the poor people on the titanic singing and dancing and being rambunctious while some fiddles play.

MysticalMachineGun
Apr 5, 2005

Laserface posted:

Literally believes that the majority of Australians are like the poor people on the titanic singing and dancing and being rambunctious while some fiddles play.

At the pubs Perrotet goes to the poor dance a jig and sing a song for a few ha'pennies

starkebn
May 18, 2004

"Oooh, got a little too serious. You okay there, little buddy?"
Have they stopped singing and dancing at Hillsong?

BrigadierSensible
Feb 16, 2012

I've got a pocket full of cheese🧀, and a garden full of trees🌴.

starkebn posted:

Have they stopped singing and dancing at Hillsong?

Wrong fundie.

ScoMo is Hillsong adjacent happy clapper.

Perrotet is a weirdo extra version of Catholic if I remember rightly.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009


Weird thing to say (or to not have legislated for?) when it's entirely down to the honour system anyway

Aware
Nov 18, 2003
It'd be down to health orders not including Rapid test results I'd guess.

hooman
Oct 11, 2007

This guy seems legit.
Fun Shoe
Me, standing in the local catholic church, eyeing the old dear on the yahama keyboard with suspicion.

BOAT SHOWBOAT
Oct 11, 2007

who do you carry the torch for, my young man?
Please end this pandemic so we can bring back UberPools as soon as possible

norp
Jan 20, 2004

TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP

let's invade New Zealand, they have oil

BOAT SHOWBOAT posted:

Please end this pandemic so we can bring back UberPools as soon as possible

I was sad to see that when uber pool came back in Perth you got like $1 off for booking one, then don't get the extra 30% unless someone actually shares with you.

Konomex
Oct 25, 2010

a whiteman who has some authority over others, who not only hasn't raped anyone, or stared at them creepily...

Rob Filter posted:

Their is a ton of stuff adjacent to lockdowns that the government could be doing to reduce the spread of transmission, and they are doing zero of those things.

Like just moving school lessons outdoors would reduce transmission at no cost to students educational outcomes. Sourcing some high quality N95 masks and mailing them to every household WOULD reduce transmission on public transport while actively making people more comfortable (N95 masks are way more comfortable than cloth ones).

Have you tried teaching a class of 32 kids outdoors in Australian summer? I have. The first problem was that the sun was so incredibly bright that no one could read, or write, because they couldn't read what they were writing. So there goes any activities involving paper or electronics. Heat stroke becomes a very real issue, as most schools just don't have enough shady areas to accommodate 1/5 of their population. I could go on, but I won't. It's just cooked.

Synthbuttrange
May 6, 2007

yeah we know the kids are cooked but the overall situation isnt great either

Eediot Jedi
Dec 25, 2007

This is where I begin to speculate what being a
man of my word costs me

Have you tried she'll be right mate? She'll be right, mate. Problem solved.

Hashy
Nov 20, 2005

Too bad creating new shade to accommodate outdoor learning would be logistically difficult and expensive. Better to just soldier through the child death

Capt.Whorebags
Jan 10, 2005

It's not like kids can vote, anyway.

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Hashy posted:

Too bad creating new shade to accommodate outdoor learning would be logistically difficult and expensive. Better to just soldier through the child death

Having some lovely rushed shelter fall on a bunch of kids would be pretty great.

Anyway, NSW number is looking good so I guess covid is over again.

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008
https://twitter.com/nick_coatsworth/status/1479748375134105602

spaceblancmange
Apr 19, 2018

#essereFerrari

don't sign your posts

SMILLENNIALSMILLEN
Jun 26, 2009



"make it messy, i want to send a message." dr nick coatsworth tells the assassin as they hand them a printout of https://celebritynews.pk/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/nick-coatsworth-wikipedia.jpg

Konomex
Oct 25, 2010

a whiteman who has some authority over others, who not only hasn't raped anyone, or stared at them creepily...

Hashy posted:

Too bad creating new shade to accommodate outdoor learning would be logistically difficult and expensive. Better to just soldier through the child death

You want to build infrastructure in public schools for health benefits? Good luck with that one.

Laserface
Dec 24, 2004

Just plant a bunch of gum tree saplings and give them no maintenance so that in 20 years you have 5sqm of patchy shade per tree for them to huddle under.

abigserve
Sep 13, 2009

this is a better avatar than what I had before
classrooms should be better ventilated and there should be less kids per classroom

in the short term there should be rostering done so that half the kids are remote one week, then at school the next. In the longer term schools should be expanded to support more and more kids learning in person in a safe way.

The curriculum should be changed to be built specifically around kids learning remotely half (or more) of the time - more assignments instead of lessons and homework. More lessons built around online courses.

Out of school stuff like sports, art, and music should be massively expanded, designed to be done during the day for kids learning at home, and made free or much cheaper.

Childcare should follow the same logic, with a roster of kids being at childcare and being at home. Fedgov should heavily subsidize in-home childcare for the off weeks

elon musk should event "learning tubes" that we stick our kids in 24/7. This one might actually at least get to prototype phase, unlike any of the above ideas

Phigs
Jan 23, 2019

Having half of kids be remote all the time requires a lot of time off from work for parents to look after their kids for younger ones so you could only do it for kids past a certain age.

I suppose if I was going to change school to work under COVID it would be to make it more like daycare where you only have a relatively small number of kids in an area the size of a home instead of cramming hundreds into one large school. That way an outbreak on one only has the opportunity to spread through so many kids and you can easily quarantine a couple dozen kids instead of hundreds.

Wizard Master
Mar 25, 2008

I actually think it's bullshit that the government is spending nearly $4 billion on tanks whilst the average Aussie can't get access to a simple RAT

Solemn Sloth
Jul 11, 2015

Baby you can shout at me,
But you can't need my eyes.

Laserface posted:

Just plant a bunch of gum tree saplings and give them no maintenance so that in 20 years you have 5sqm of patchy shade per tree for them to huddle under.

They’ll look a bit nicer than a rusty tin roof before falling on a kid and killing them too!

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Wizard Master posted:

I actually think it's bullshit that the government is spending nearly $4 billion on tanks whilst the average Aussie can't get access to a simple RAT


Would be curious to know what intended use tanks would have for us.

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Regular Wario
Mar 27, 2010

Slippery Tilde

Senor Tron posted:

Would be curious to know what intended use tanks would have for us.

land war with china

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