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Which horse film is your favorite? This poll is closed. |
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|---|---|---|---|
| Black Beauty |
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2 | 1.06% |
| A Talking Pony!?! |
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4 | 2.13% |
| Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor |
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117 | 62.23% |
| War Horse |
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11 | 5.85% |
| Mr. Hands |
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54 | 28.72% |
| Total: | 188 votes | ||
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This administration is so unserious about tackling covid that they're more worried about the optics of masks being used than they are worried about our nearly-overwhelmed hospitals. https://twitter.com/gregggonsalves/status/1480134068792659971
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Jan 9, 2022 15:10
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There are only so many vaccinated people presenting with a couple days of sore throat and fatigue with zero lasting effects for me to think of Omicron as anything less than "mild" for the healthy-ish and vaccinated. On a societal level, yes, the unvaccinated and people waiting for any bacteria or virus to tip them over to hospitalization can consider Omicron worse than wild type COVID two years ago. They are and are going to flood hospitals worldwide because coming down with Omicron at some point in life seems to be inevitable for the vast majority of humanity given these initial numbers. But on an individual level, if you're vaccinated, boosted and are healthy enough to survive a random cold, then Omicron won't be the one that gets you. Way worse to get CSPAM'd into thinking a positive result is equal to an inevitable Parkinson's Alzheimer's Diabetes death. Wang Commander posted:Yeah. Looking forward to poo poo like a 24%(!) chance of diabetes, throwing clots all over, brain damage, etc. Looking forward to this every few weeks forever. Asymptomatic presentation, best case scenario for a vaccinated person flipping out because of a test result after misreading a preprint.
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Jan 9, 2022 15:13
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Even if we take it as given that kids don't get very sick from omicron, they are clearly a huge factor in spreading it to each other and to adults. You're the one posting daily infection updates and speculating about causes of the daily fluctuations. Schools being open are almost certainly going to be a significant contributor to daily infection rates.
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Jan 9, 2022 15:16
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Rust Martialis posted:The problem is the data's not tabulated and it sucks reading it off a chart Weekends are off, but otherwise you can find the data here (posted at the same time as the dashboard update): https://covid19.ssi.dk/overvagningsdata/download-fil-med-overvaagningdata For cases you want to look at the "Municipality_cases_time_series.csv". But be advised that there is multiple day lag before days are fully updated.
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Jan 9, 2022 15:21
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Judakel posted:This administration is so unserious about tackling covid that they're more worried about the optics of masks being used than they are worried about our nearly-overwhelmed hospitals. This part really stuck out to me: quote:It’s worth noting that public support for mask mandates has generally been high, with one poll from mid-December finding 64% of Americans in support. It's something that a majority of Americans across the political spectrum would approve of, but like many such things that would be well-received by most of the public they don't feel like doing anything about it even though it would save countless lives.
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Jan 9, 2022 15:24
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It seems more like a deliberate decision not to undermine confidence in the recovery we're all supposed to be seeing. Sort of a twist on the language from the CDC in March 2020 that led to me seeking out N95s ASAP.
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Jan 9, 2022 15:25
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Rust Martialis posted:The pattern in DK has been the last 2 weeks case explosion seems to me to be primarily driven by Christmas Eve/Day gatherings and NYE festivities. Even if it were assumed that the table you presented was day of test and not day of report for aggregation (as Pingui implies) I don't think it's really obviously established by the raw data in last table you presented that there's a 1 week mean report to hospital for Omicron without a bit more analysis or more data points. For starters, the baseline pre-omicron case load is still ~25-50% compared to current case rates. Looking at South Africa data though, which is more clearly omicron only and has a peak that clearly ended, the case peak was ~Dec 15 and the hospital peak was somewhere in Dec 16-29 according to the second source.If we pick the midpoint of the second range that's about December 22, 7 days after, for the peak hospitalization rate. https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/national-covid-19-daily-report/ https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/ So sure, about a week from test date to see hospital admit peak from Omicron cases, maybe a few extra days since the hospital admits on the right side of the plateau are higher. Note though this isn't necessarily mean time to hospitalization which I didn't see a good way to scrape the data I'd need together to come up with a solid empirical support for or against being longer within ~15 minutes. Deaths have a long tail distribution, and I would guess hospitalizations do as well, especially with regard to ICU which is where people that die in the long tail tend to be. Suzera fucked around with this message at 16:32 on Jan 9, 2022 |
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Jan 9, 2022 15:26
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Srice posted:This part really stuck out to me: If 1 in 3 Americans are against masking, then we're going to see a whole lot of deaths regardless of anything federal mandates could accomplish.
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Jan 9, 2022 15:28
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MadJackal posted:If 1 in 3 Americans are against masking, then we're going to see a whole lot of deaths regardless of anything federal mandates could accomplish. Well yeah it wouldn't prevent all deaths but a mask mandate would have an impact on the death rate and at this point it's so out of control that every little bit helps.
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Jan 9, 2022 15:33
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Srice posted:Well yeah it wouldn't prevent all deaths but a mask mandate would have an impact on the death rate and at this point it's so out of control that every little bit helps. Mask mandates would have to be enforced by the last people I trust to enforce mask mandates. The NYPD have made it a point that they're so ballsy that basic personal protection doesn't apply. Now try to enforce that mandate in Eastfuck Texas where the deathcultist political party is mocking mask wearing. Anti-mask / anti-vax idiots are the last people I want to spend political power on.
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Jan 9, 2022 15:45
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Actively dissuading mask mandates because you want to make things look normal is morally repugnant Kinda a theme with this administration
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Jan 9, 2022 15:53
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NoDamage posted:I agree that her response could have been phrased more clearly but I think you're reading more into her statement than is actually there based on preconceived assumptions about her underlying motivations. After all, the context of her statement could have been clarified at any time by reading the underlying study to understand exactly what she was referring to. Instead we ended up with two pages worth of unnecessary outrage posts because nobody bothered to check, which is in my opinion rather unfortunate. I feel like I've pretty well responded to accusations of intentional deception or attempting to manufacture outrage - Descendo Vox called me out on divorcing the clip from context almost immediately and even when I transcribed the entirety of the exchange, there is no getting around the phrasing she used for me. I understand this may be a tinted interpretation but I hope I have shown at this point that it is neither disingenuous or irrational. My intent is not to mislead people. Maybe there is the implication of outrage in my posts but it comes from a place of deep-seated resentment not at any other poster, but the government's continued failing response to properly address the constant death. There is no reason for 836,000 americans to have died. So many of those could have been prevented by action that was deemed impossible or unnecessary before ti was attempted despite many prescribed solutions being entirely feasible and used successfully in other countries. That boils my blood, yes. We're still oscillating between hundreds and thousands of deaths a day, now for almost two years. We are not making headway. There is no way to interpret the guidance of the CDC except to understand it in the context of those deaths - that those deaths are acceptable (because they are not entirely unpreventable) and that if the majority of those deaths are people who are already unwell that's "really encouraging news in the context of omicron" I don't want to further belabor a statement that's now two days old but I do hope that if/when you engage with me in the future this will give you a bit more insight into where I am coming from and that you'll accept my premises as coming from a rational place and not poo poo-stirring. I do, admittedly, feel as though you spent more time trying to dismiss me than the actual text in question (though that may be me being overly sensitive to the fact that in the course of posting a single news clip I have been accused of intentional deception and irrationality multiple times) even after I have expounded and defended my position over the course of said "two pages" of outrage that I wish you'd chosen to engage with where I made many responses that I feel clarified my position. brugroffil posted:Actively dissuading mask mandates because you want to make things look normal is morally repugnant In my ideal world masks would be mandatory in all public places from here on. Public transport, grocery stores, essential services etc. Entertainment venues I suppose leave it to their discretion but there's no reason we should ever step backwards from this if it means opening up safer avenues of engaging with the world for immunocompromised people. If you're just wearing one on a commute or to pop into the store it doesn't even suck. It's fine. I wear glasses and it's annoying but whatever, it's better than getting a cold or giving someone else plague and killing them. Good Soldier Svejk fucked around with this message at 16:00 on Jan 9, 2022 |
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Jan 9, 2022 15:57
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brugroffil posted:Actively dissuading mask mandates because you want to make things look normal is morally repugnant I'm not dissuading people from wearing masks, I'm pointing out that a lots of people in areas far away from me really, really want to die and the minor inconvenience of placing some material over their mouths and noses is so much a psychological burden they'd rather get sick. Drats. What a loss. Things get worse for me if Trump wins in 2024 on a wave of anti-mask, anti-vax sentiment that props up federal level exemptions for plague rats. MadJackal fucked around with this message at 16:13 on Jan 9, 2022 |
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Jan 9, 2022 16:11
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MadJackal posted:There are only so many vaccinated people presenting with a couple days of sore throat and fatigue with zero lasting effects for me to think of Omicron as anything less than "mild" for the healthy-ish and vaccinated. my post and article is about the effect of omicron on a macro level on a collapsing healthcare system why are you responding with a lecture about not being a doomer about my individual prognosis.
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Jan 9, 2022 16:16
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MadJackal posted:If 1 in 3 Americans are against masking, then we're going to see a whole lot of deaths regardless of anything federal mandates could accomplish. Depends how against. A lot of mask mandates are enforced through social norms more than any actual real enforcement. I'd wager that at least half of that 33% are mildly against masks, and if they're in an environment where everyone else is wearing a mask, they'll mask up even if they're against mandates. Here in Ontario, where we've had a continuous mask mandate since June of 2020, seeing someone completely unmasked is exceptionally rare. The number of people I've seen unmasked in a retail store is at 2 (just went up on Christmas Eve by 1). You see dicknoses for sure, and dumb masks that are more of a middle finger to mask mandates than anything actually meant to protect someone (like those plastic guards that just go over your mouth and nose), but completely unmasked people is super, super rare where I am. Prior to a mask mandate they were incredibly rare, and you definitely got dirty looks and even comments in certain places (grocery store was pretty fine, but I got laughed at for wearing one at the mechanics). For sure I think in the US there are areas where you'd see poor compliance, since that 33% isn't evenly distributed and masking is hopeless anywhere it's north of 50%, but in urban areas I think a mask mandate with consistent messaging would see high uptake.
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Jan 9, 2022 16:22
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There's absolutely, positively, zero enforcement of our mask mandate by the way and it's littered with loopholes (by the mandate itself, you can claim an exemption and stores aren't allowed to ask for proof). It's still absolutely effective though.
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Jan 9, 2022 16:24
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Tiny Timbs posted:It seems more like a deliberate decision not to undermine confidence in the recovery we're all supposed to be seeing. Sort of a twist on the language from the CDC in March 2020 that led to me seeking out N95s ASAP. That’s exactly what it is, they care more about projecting the image that Everything Is Normal than saving human lives.
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Jan 9, 2022 16:28
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MadJackal posted:I'm not dissuading people from wearing masks, I'm pointing out that a lots of people in areas far away from me really, really want to die and the minor inconvenience of placing some material over their mouths and noses is so much a psychological burden they'd rather get sick. Drats. What a loss. Things get worse for me if Trump wins in 2024 on a wave of anti-mask, anti-vax sentiment that props up federal level exemptions for plague rats. Unless you're a member of the Biden administration, that post wasn't directed at your personal actions. The topic was the Biden admin discouraging state wide mask mandates.
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Jan 9, 2022 16:39
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MadJackal posted:Mask mandates would have to be enforced by the last people I trust to enforce mask mandates. The NYPD have made it a point that they're so ballsy that basic personal protection doesn't apply. Now try to enforce that mandate in Eastfuck Texas where the deathcultist political party is mocking mask wearing. It’s one thing to rationalize why we can’t, say, nationalize vaccine production, or whatever ambitious policy you can think of, but this is A Thing We Already Did and it worked.
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Jan 9, 2022 17:16
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MadJackal posted:Mask mandates would have to be enforced by the last people I trust to enforce mask mandates. The NYPD have made it a point that they're so ballsy that basic personal protection doesn't apply. Now try to enforce that mandate in Eastfuck Texas where the deathcultist political party is mocking mask wearing. Absolutely true, social pressure has never convinced nobody to do nothin.
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Jan 9, 2022 17:25
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MadJackal posted:There are only so many vaccinated people presenting with a couple days of sore throat and fatigue with zero lasting effects for me to think of Omicron as anything less than "mild" for the healthy-ish and vaccinated. Telling people “good news! it’s mild you’ll be fine.” has almost certainly made the current situation worse. (It’s also a slight variation of the “99% of people survive/only the old and infirm are dying” line from MAGA in 2020.) Messaging like this, especially from the CDC and political leaders, is quite literally getting people killed.
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Jan 9, 2022 17:48
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Edit: Wow, wrong thread.
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Jan 9, 2022 17:53
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MadJackal posted:Mask mandates would have to be enforced by the last people I trust to enforce mask mandates. The NYPD have made it a point that they're so ballsy that basic personal protection doesn't apply. Now try to enforce that mandate in Eastfuck Texas where the deathcultist political party is mocking mask wearing. This kind of thinking is completely pointless. Of course people who will never wear a mask will never wear a mask. What matters is everyone else. A mask mandate tells everyone else to wear a mask. No mask mandate tells everyone else they don't have to wear a mask. So people who are willing to wear a mask don't because they are being explicitly told it doesn't matter. It's like when the CDC cut the isolation time from 10 days to 5 because some people weren't following the 10 day guidance. And the end result was everyone who wasn't following the guidance continued to not follow the guidance, and everyone who was following the guidance continued to follow the guidance and cut their isolation time in half. The result of which we are currently living through.
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Jan 9, 2022 18:04
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Gio posted:It’s been pointed out multiple times itt, with studies and multiple anecdotes of the effect Masks Off May had on compliance, that mask mandates increase voluntary compliance—which has the knockoff effect of peer pressuring others into wearing them as well. Preprints about how government mask mandates reduce COVID infections among the anti-vax, anti-mask population by single percentage numbers don't matter. Give up on them. The reality is Omicron is the wildfire anyone paying attention was worried about. The federal government made vaccinations as easy as heading to your local Walmart to get for free, and about half the Facebooked country thinks this is a ploy to murder them. Those idiots will get sick and possibly die. That's the cost of freedom of thought. Some thoughts kill their owners.
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Jan 9, 2022 18:10
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Suzera posted:There's not really humps for California according to CDC https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases. Just UP. The only data I've seen is from rkkp.dk - they report biweekly on ICU cases in DK, and their current report https://www.rkkp.dk/siteassets/resultater/covid-19-rapport/dansk-intensiv-covid-19-rapport_06_januar_2022_v1.pdf includes some analysis. In Table 1, looking at all ICU patients from 01 November to 31 December : pre:Total 0-1 shots 2-shots Boosted Number of Patients 329 152 122 24 Men, N (%) 215 (65.3) 100 (65.8) 81 (66.4) 17 (70.8) Age, years 66 (50-75) 56 (42-68) 73 (64-78) 73 (70-78) Body Mass Index 29 (25-33) 30 (25-34) 29 (25-33) 30 (26-36) Time from first symptom 7 (4-9) 7 (5-10) 5 (1-8) 6 (4-9) til admitted to hospital, days The age ranges are... interesting. The comorbidities are sad to look at. The boosted patients included a lot of cancer and immunocompromised, all over 70. But based on the only data I have seen, and that there's clearly quite a spread, and this is only 329 patients... the "it's about 7 days from symptoms to hospital admit" is at least a reasonable rule of thumb. No? Rust Martialis fucked around with this message at 18:16 on Jan 9, 2022 |
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Jan 9, 2022 18:12
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Well, this looks absolutely catastrophic. I'm thinking this because much of the Country is still unvaccinated, the areas that aren't vaccinated are largely rural and their healthcare infrastructure is in no way is going to be able to put up with the sudden surge of patients needing care. Am I wrong with my assessment here? I think the next month or two is going to be absolutely brutal. I get omicron isn't as severe but the sheer volume of infections is going include so many that will need help. https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1480212120595742723?s=20 Gucci Loafers fucked around with this message at 18:21 on Jan 9, 2022 |
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Jan 9, 2022 18:16
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MadJackal posted:Drats. What a loss. Things get worse for me if Trump wins in 2024 on a wave of anti-mask, anti-vax sentiment that props up federal level exemptions for plague rats. I read post after post of liberal or left people saying they're out of empathy, or encouraging people to take care of themselves because officials have failed them. Beyond just the immediate whiplash of "well that sucked, lets try the other guys again", who knows how many people have been radicalized away from the social contract. The right will eat that up.
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Jan 9, 2022 18:22
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MadJackal posted:That's the cost of freedom of thought. Some thoughts kill their owners. That's fine. It's when those thoughts kill other people (who did the things they were supposed) to the point where it buckles the fabric of society that you may want to see "the people in charge" doing anything else at all to prevent said buckling
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Jan 9, 2022 18:24
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Have Some Flowers! posted:The problem is that they're bringing down everyone else with them. Education and healthcare are buckling under the pressure... hell even getting a pizza delivered right now is a coin flip. These are not good things for the "adults in the room/government can actually solve problems" party. People deciding they don't want to be paid pennies to deliver pizzas isn't the system breaking down
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Jan 9, 2022 18:24
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UCS Hellmaker posted:People deciding they don't want to be paid pennies to deliver pizzas isn't the system breaking down What about the pizza place raising prices by 40 percent?
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Jan 9, 2022 18:27
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Well, this looks absolutely catastrophic. I'm thinking this because much of the Country is still unvaccinated, the areas that aren't vaccinated are largely rural and their healthcare infrastructure is in no way is going to be able to put up with the sudden surge of patients needing care. Am I wrong with my assessment here? I think the next month or two is going to be absolutely brutal. I get omicron isn't as severe but the sheer volume of infections is going include so many that will need help. No I expect the unvaccinated rural population will get basically hosed by Omicron. And the elderly who are vaccinated, and the immune compromised or cancer patients, etc. It's like the 142 ICU patients in Denmark in Nov and Dec, who were between 42 and 68, of whom 54% had zero comorbidities. Old enough to be vaccinated, and maybe a few of them had a reason not to get the vaccine, but I assume most of them just didn't get it. Of the 142 unvaccinated (and 10 with one shot, so 152 total), 87 went on vents for an average of 9 days, 17 on dialysis, 8 on ECMO. Outcomes: 79 discharged, 32 still in ICY, 14 out of the ICU but still in hospital, and... 27 of them died.
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Jan 9, 2022 18:30
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MadJackal posted:Preprints about how government mask mandates reduce COVID infections among the anti-vax, anti-mask population by single percentage numbers don't matter. Give up on them. The reality is Omicron is the wildfire anyone paying attention was worried about. And all the people with comorbidities, they're just acceptable losses as long as we're dunking on the chuds?
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Jan 9, 2022 18:32
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Rust Martialis posted:the "it's about 7 days from symptoms to hospital admit" is at least a reasonable rule of thumb. No? Suzera fucked around with this message at 18:42 on Jan 9, 2022 |
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Jan 9, 2022 18:38
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Deciding the United States is falling apart at the seams because you can't get a pizza delivered. Just Goon Things
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Jan 9, 2022 18:43
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Gripweed posted:And all the people with comorbidities, they're just acceptable losses as long as we're dunking on the chuds? SpartanIvy posted:Deciding the United States is falling apart at the seams because you can't get a pizza delivered. Just Goon Things
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Jan 9, 2022 18:47
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UCS Hellmaker posted:People deciding they don't want to be paid pennies to deliver pizzas isn't the system breaking down SpartanIvy posted:Deciding the United States is falling apart at the seams because you can't get a pizza delivered. Just Goon Things Ha, nice, what a clearly disengenuous way of interpreting that post.
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Jan 9, 2022 18:47
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Discendo Vox posted:Good news: it was funded by the white house with money authorized by Congress as part of the ARP in May 2021, on top of another 1 billion to Americorps in that bill. This specific tranche is apparently the amount is only enough to cover 5,000 jobs, and the time to implementation is several years. This appears likely to be because the organization has to operate through partner organizations, and there's a lot of issues with setting up a separate funding line; the grant application period closed in November. The other billion in congressional funding from the ARP appears to have been more effective as a surge workforce operation, but I can't find reliable aggregate numbers; most of the material available is promotional. Giving some more context to this 5,000 figure — the Biden campaign promised 100,000 contact tracer jobs. Imagine where we’d be if we had them all
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Jan 9, 2022 19:08
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Throw me on the pile of expendables. High school teacher here, started showing symptoms on Thursday night, two negative rapid tests, followed by a positive as soon as I swabbed my throat. Good news is, I get to go back on Wednesday. I'm tempted to put in a week of FMLA and just eat the pay loss. My school has a 30% vax rate among our students (poor, inner city, largely POC) and I really don't want to risk their health, or the health of their equally unvaccinated families.
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Jan 9, 2022 19:12
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MadJackal posted:There are only so many vaccinated people presenting with a couple days of sore throat and fatigue with zero lasting effects for me to think of Omicron as anything less than "mild" for the healthy-ish and vaccinated. We mostly agree, and/but I think the crucial problem is that people have irresponsibly communicated "omicron is mild" when there is probably nothing about the virus that makes it less pathogenic, it's just so good at immune evasion that it makes people who wouldn't have gotten sick at all w/ delta mildy sick with Omicron. Because we've built policies and expectations around intrinsic mildness, we're going to get absolutely hosed by the acute systemic load of the unvaccinated + those very few vaccinated in hospital now. And we're too early to know about long covid in vaccinated people with mild infections. I'm hoping the answer is that it's at a lower rate, but we don't know yet/
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Jan 9, 2022 19:28
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Rust Martialis posted:No I expect the unvaccinated rural population will get basically hosed by Omicron. And the elderly who are vaccinated, and the immune compromised or cancer patients, etc.  Was this during the initial Omicron surge? It makes total sense to me why so many hospitals and other institutions are lowering quarantine times and asking people to come back to work. We're looking at an enormous potential impact to hospitals and the economy especially if folks aren't vaccinated.
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Jan 9, 2022 19:45
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