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Which horse film is your favorite? This poll is closed. |
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| Black Beauty |
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2 | 1.06% |
| A Talking Pony!?! |
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4 | 2.13% |
| Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor |
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117 | 62.23% |
| War Horse |
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11 | 5.85% |
| Mr. Hands |
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54 | 28.72% |
| Total: | 188 votes | ||
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Fritz the Horse posted:this is a somewhat pedantic point but it does have some real-life relevance for readers/posters itt: avoid anthropomorphizing the SARS-CoV-2 virus Covid is real and he’s my friend
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Jan 12, 2022 14:33
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Looking at worldo, in the first week of January there was a dip in case recording for Denmark, so the hospitals from the prior higher points would show up in this timeframe artificially inflating hospitals per case recorded on that day. In the first week of December there was a minipeak preceded by a lower case rate, so the relatively lower amount cause from the lower case time would show up during this high case point in hospitals, driving it down. Would this be enough to drive the difference if Omicron is in fact less likely to cause hospitalizations? I don't know offhand, and I don't know if those hospitalization rates take into account the time offset, but a factor like this is more what to look for to explain any of what you might think are discrepancies unless you think hospitalizations might in fact be based on the square of cases than linear cases.
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Jan 12, 2022 14:34
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Fritz the Horse posted:this is a somewhat pedantic point but it does have some real-life relevance for readers/posters itt: avoid anthropomorphizing the SARS-CoV-2 virus (I'm not opposed to this being a rule for the thread, and I get what you're going for, but just FYI, this is a disputed point in history/philosophy of science; see e.g. Latour's Pasteurization of France, or, in the technological context, Mixing Humans & Nonhumans Together: The Sociology of a Door Closer. Part of the goal of actor-network theory and other material-semiotic methods, as I see it, is to simultaneously acknowledge that, if we do not make a priori ontological distinctions between them, a) nonhumans appear to have more agency than we traditionally give them, and b) humans much less, and these descriptions often have much more robust value than those which divide the world up in advance.)
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Jan 12, 2022 14:48
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Petey posted:(I'm not opposed to this being a rule for the thread, and I get what you're going for, but just FYI, this is a disputed point in history/philosophy of science; see e.g. Latour's Pasteurization of France, or, in the technological context, Mixing Humans & Nonhumans Together: The Sociology of a Door Closer. Part of the goal of actor-network theory and other material-semiotic methods, as I see it, is to simultaneously acknowledge that, if we do not make a priori ontological distinctions between them, a) nonhumans appear to have more agency than we traditionally give them, and b) humans much less, and these descriptions often have much more robust value than those which divide the world up in advance.) Yup Posthumanism rules
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Jan 12, 2022 15:00
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Fritz the Horse posted:this is a somewhat pedantic point but it does have some real-life relevance for readers/posters itt: avoid anthropomorphizing the SARS-CoV-2 virus Do you have proof that COVID-19 is not infact a sentient virus created by aliens to wipe out mankind? Because that is what I personally believe. And I must believe it in order to be able to put up with this bullshitt without eating a bullett
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Jan 12, 2022 15:48
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Petey posted:(I'm not opposed to this being a rule for the thread, and I get what you're going for, but just FYI, this is a disputed point in history/philosophy of science; see e.g. Latour's Pasteurization of France, or, in the technological context, Mixing Humans & Nonhumans Together: The Sociology of a Door Closer. Part of the goal of actor-network theory and other material-semiotic methods, as I see it, is to simultaneously acknowledge that, if we do not make a priori ontological distinctions between them, a) nonhumans appear to have more agency than we traditionally give them, and b) humans much less, and these descriptions often have much more robust value than those which divide the world up in advance.) "Don't anthropomorphize, humans aren't even what you think they are" is a good rule in general. DethisaGift posted:Do you have proof that COVID-19 is not infact a sentient virus created by aliens to wipe out mankind? Not for you. Go with the aliens explanation, at least for now.
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Jan 12, 2022 15:56
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Fritz the Horse posted:this is a somewhat pedantic point but it does have some real-life relevance for readers/posters itt: avoid anthropomorphizing the SARS-CoV-2 virus 
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Jan 12, 2022 16:04
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CSM posted:There's no real reason to think that the Omicron variant isn't hindered by built up immunity throughout populations. It's either evolved to be a lot less virulent and/or built up immunity has made it a lot less virulent. You can't ignore the fact that a certain percentage of the people who are most at risk have already caught it and died, be it from the initial infection or the after effects. And those numbers are probably 3 times the official death toll.
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Jan 12, 2022 16:13
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Whether Sars-CoV-2 has internal experiences, wants, and desires is unknowable even in principle, trying to police people's philosophical positions is a pointless exercise.
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Jan 12, 2022 16:52
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Covid-19 doesn't want to be anthropomorphized
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Jan 12, 2022 16:54
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That Covid. What a right bellend.
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Jan 12, 2022 16:55
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Fritz the Horse posted:this is a somewhat pedantic point but it does have some real-life relevance for readers/posters itt: avoid anthropomorphizing the SARS-CoV-2 virus I'm unsure what you mean by this; could you give some examples, please?
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Jan 12, 2022 17:02
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VitalSigns posted:Whether Sars-CoV-2 has internal experiences, wants, and desires is unknowable even in principle, trying to police people's philosophical positions is a pointless exercise. If our standards for epistemology are "we can't know FOR SURE that viruses aren't sentient" what's even the point of this thread? Any discussion is pointless if literally nothing can be taken as an axiom.
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Jan 12, 2022 17:17
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These questions are well beyond my ability to answer (and, realistically, it's probably the same for everyone else here), but I have two things that I have been wondering and want to throw out. 1) If places with high vaccination rates, literal islands, and stricter lockdowns than the U.S. like Australia are seeing the same Omicron surge and even closing in on the same weekly deaths per capita as the US, then what is the end game scenario for Covid? If even New Zealand says they are abandoning the idea of containing Covid and moving to a model of endemic mitigation, then what is the most successful realistic long-term scenario for Covid look like? 2) (This one is mostly rhetorical) The stimulus bill had tens of billions for schools to get retrofitted and make it possible to operate safely in-person before kids could get vaccinated. It was over a million dollars per public school in the country. It was the largest single transfer of cash from the federal government to schools in U.S. history. Where exactly did all that money go? There were a few big stories about some schools using it for new gyms or football fields, but the vast majority probably didn't do that. At the same time, most schools don't seem like they have made the retrofitting/scheduling/staffing/other changes that it was intended for. There is no IG report or audit of where it went yet, so we don't really know for sure and won't for a while.
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Jan 12, 2022 17:18
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Youth Decay posted:There is very strong evidence that Omicron mutated and adapted to spreading in mice. Now, one of the criticisms levied against the US(/UK/elsewhere?) vaccination approach is that by focusing on the domestic population and not exporting vaccines, there was a fear that a partially vaccinated population may encourage variants that provide immune escape, and delta may have been an example of that (although it doesn't have as much escape potential as omicron). However, if some alpha-ish strain jumped to mice in mid-2000 and then jumped back as omicron in December--this could've happened regardless of how vaccination efforts played out right?
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Jan 12, 2022 17:19
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enki42 posted:If our standards for epistemology are "we can't know FOR SURE that viruses aren't sentient" what's even the point of this thread? Any discussion is pointless if literally nothing can be taken as an axiom. Well I was making a philosophy joke, but there is a serious answer to your question if ya want: the inability to directly experience other beings' mental states doesn't mean that nothing is empirically knowable. You can take the position that people can know things from observation (like whether a thing called SARS-CoV-2 is causing disease), but there's no way to observe someone else's mental state, that's all just done by analogy with your own feelings. (Someone recoils from a hot stove, so I assume they feel the same sensation I do when I act the same way. Of course insects also recoil from damage, do they experience pain or emotions like suffering, or are they just biomachines reacting mechanically to stimuli?) drat I kinda miss when D&D had philosophy discussions and wasn't just all politics and news all the time. Anyway gonna take this discussion to a "Prove You Aren't A Philosophical Zombie" Thread to see if anyone can refute my universal rebuttal to every attempt: "that's just what a philosophical zombie would say"
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Jan 12, 2022 17:30
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What's the point in providing safety gear if some people won't wear them? https://twitter.com/AlexThomp/status/1481062484110983175
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Jan 12, 2022 17:33
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VitalSigns posted:drat I kinda miss when D&D had philosophy discussions and wasn't just all politics and news all the time. Anyway gonna take this discussion to a "Prove You Aren't A Philosophical Zombie" Thread to see if anyone can refute my universal rebuttal to every attempt: "that's just what a philosophical zombie would say" Be the change you want to see, go make a thread for it; it's not like they're a finite resource. 
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Jan 12, 2022 17:35
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MooselanderII posted:What's the point in providing safety gear if some people won't wear them? Non-medical members of the administration making embarrassing public comments about medical issues seems to be the quickest way for good policy to get adopted. https://twitter.com/JDiamond1/status/1481301458050064386
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Jan 12, 2022 17:40
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haveblue posted:Covid-19 doesn't want to be anthropomorphized Someone is going to market a Covid-chan and I'm terrified now.
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Jan 12, 2022 17:42
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Love watching the gears of government (both federal & state) grind so slowly & cumbersomely that nothing gets done till way after it needs to have been done. Route housing relief through NGOs! Form committees to study feasibilities, examine options & make recommendations six months from now! Audit where the money's gone years after it's been doled!
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Jan 12, 2022 17:44
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CommieGIR posted:Someone is going to market a Covid-chan and I'm terrified now. I think that already happened here Warning: NSFW and racism. Willa Rogers posted:Love watching the gears of government (both federal & state) grind so slowly & cumbersomely that nothing gets done till way after it needs to have been done. What is old is new again because nothing changes https://youtu.be/nSXIetP5iak virtualboyCOLOR fucked around with this message at 17:51 on Jan 12, 2022 |
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Jan 12, 2022 17:46
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:These questions are well beyond my ability to answer (and, realistically, it's probably the same for everyone else here), but I have two things that I have been wondering and want to throw out. West Australia is allegedly opening up later, and it'll explode there then in more or less the exact same way too if they don't change their mind to not just open the blood gates. The cases explode like this because the regions give up their effective strategies. They don't usually give up their effective strategies because the cases explode in places where it was well contained before. Suzera fucked around with this message at 18:23 on Jan 12, 2022 |
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Jan 12, 2022 18:14
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This one is for anyone who said “but does anyone even listen to the CDC??” after they updated isolation guidance.  MDHHS updated their guidance to match the CDC’s, which my school just posted. So yes—schools and workplaces follow CDC guidance, and it sucks!
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Jan 12, 2022 18:34
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Gio posted:So yes—schools and workplaces follow CDC guidance, and it sucks! Yep, same here. I work at a medical school, which you think would have stricter guidelines, but nope. If it's good enough for the CDC, it's good enough for us.
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Jan 12, 2022 18:38
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Willa Rogers posted:I'm unsure what you mean by this; could you give some examples, please? "COVID wants to be less dangerous so it can spread better in mice instead of killing them" etc. This is very common phrasing amongst people who know a little about evolution and is a bane of people who teach it.
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Jan 12, 2022 19:01
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I guess the answer to the rest of part 1 is that we have a decently good idea of what stops COVID vs just praying to god, the heavens or covid that it gets less severe or we get an even more miraculous vaccine. We have a good idea of what success requires in the current situation. Just relatively few people are inclined to do those things. It's not "realistic" to do those things right now because people are still largely too ambivalent to the death and other results or desperately chasing a return to 2019 because their sanity apparently depends on it. At some point the miracle will happen that will make everything better or people will get tired of their friends and family suffering/dying or people will stop chasing 2019, and then the situation will change. Or maybe we'll just normalize millions to tens of millions or so of people dying to covid every year. v0v E: and then there's capitalism running the show problems on top in that more death is not necessarily worse for profits in the short term. Suzera fucked around with this message at 19:41 on Jan 12, 2022 |
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Jan 12, 2022 19:07
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DethisaGift posted:You can't ignore the fact that a certain percentage of the people who are most at risk have already caught it and died, be it from the initial infection or the after effects. And those numbers are probably 3 times the official death toll.
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Jan 12, 2022 19:58
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Denmark - 12 January 2022 Here we are again. Happy loving New Year: Welcome to Hospital Edition Actual cases (once the tests roll in and get sorted out by test date) in Table 2 are not dropping. They're doing quite the loving opposite in fact. New surge starts around 09 January... so my only explanation is Mom and Dad partied on the 31st, got symptomatic on the 3rd/4th, with little Anne-Mette and Henrik getting well coughed on. They then went back to school on 5th January and duly coughed on Jens and Amelie and others, and have now in turn started showing up positive. Denmark hit 1,000,009 cases today.  I figured I'd combine new cases into 0-19, 20-39, and 40+ because I'm lazy. Total cases overall - 286k 0-19 years, 340k 20-39, 374k 40+ So 28.6%, 34.0%, 37.4%. Last week - 43k 0-19, 45k 20-39, 37k 40+ (125k cases) Hence 34%, 36%, 30% in the last 7 days. Looking back on 07 January for the same "last 7 days": 34K, 49.6K, 41K. So a week ago: 27%, 40%, 33%. So a week ago new cases were biased somewhat towards 20-39 year olds. This week they're biased somewhat towards 0-19 year olds. Not sure you can say much else than "somewhat more 0-19s are getting sick then average". I suppose they're also coughing on their parents too. I have no idea what's next. Vaccination Group 12 (Children 5-12) are only 23% fully vaccinated, Group 11 (13-16) are 76.6%, and I guess 0-5 are basically not vaccinated. I don't think anyone under 19 can get boosted yet. (link: https://www.sst.dk/en/English/News/2021/Everyone-aged-18-and-over-can-now-get-the-3rd-booster-vaccine-dose) If I had to guess, we will see more kids getting sick on average, but hopefully it won't end up sending lots to hospital. not optimistic. pre:Table 1. Denmark Covid Cases reported per day (not on day tested!!!) ----------------------------------- Jan 12 24,343 new cases, 1614 reinfections, 215 new hospitalizations (751 total), 73 ICU (0), 46 Vent (0), 25 dead , 46 psych covid Jan 11 22,936 new cases, 1459 reinfections, 181 new hospitalizations (754 total), 73 ICU (-1), 46 Vent (-1), 14 dead , 44 psych covid Jan 10 14,414 new cases, 941 reinfections, 156 new hospitalizations (777 total), 74 ICU (-3), 47 Vent (-3), 9 dead Jan 09 19,248 new cases, 1327 reinfections, 126 new hospitalizations (723 total), 77 ICU (-1), 50 Vent (-2), 14 dead Jan 08 12,588 new cases, 984 reinfections, 161 new hospitalizations (730 total), 78 ICU (0), 52 Vent (-1), 28 dead Jan 07 18,261 new cases, 1482 reinfections, 186 new hospitalizations (755 total), 78 ICU (-4), 53 Vent (+4), 10 dead Jan 06 25,995 new cases, 2027 reinfections, 161 new hospitalizations (756 total), 82 ICU (+2), 47 Vent (-2), 11 dead Jan 05 28,283 new cases, 2083 reinfections, 204 new hospitalizations (784 total), 80 ICU (+3), 49 Vent (+2), 15 dead <-- NYE + Xmas ow Jan 04* 23,372 new cases, 1701 reinfections, 229 new hospitalizations (792 total), 77 ICU (+4), 47 Vent (+1), 15 dead <-- spike in hospital wow Jan 03* 8,801 new cases, 532 reinfections, 169 new hospitalizations (770 total), 73 ICU (-3), 46 Vent (-4), 5 dead Jan 02 7,550 new cases, 404 reinfections, 163 new hospitalizations (709 total), 76 ICU (+3), 50 Vent (+1), 15 dead Jan 01 20,885 new cases, 1049 reinfections, 139 new hospitalizations (647 total), 73 ICU (+0), 49 Vent (+0), 5 dead Dec 31 17,605 new cases, 1090 reinfections, 177 new hospitalizations (641 total), 73 ICU (-2), 49 Vent (-1), 11 dead Dec 30 21,403 new cases, 1123 reinfections, 178 new hospitalizations (665 total), 75 ICU (-2), 50 Vent (-2), 9 dead Dec 29 23,228 new cases, 1205 reinfections, 173 new hospitalizations (675 total), 77 ICU (+6), 52 Vent (+2), 16 dead Dec 28 13,000 new cases, 670 reinfections, 177 new hospitalizations (666 total), 71 ICU (+1), 50 Vent (+4), 14 dead Dec 27 16,164 new cases, 639 reinfections, 115 new hospitalizations (608 total), 70 ICU (-1), 46 Vent (-2), 7 dead Dec 26 14,844 new cases, 644 reinfections, 123 new hospitalizations (579 total), 71 ICU (-2), 43 Vent (+1), 13 dead Dec 25 10,027 new cases, 463 reinfections, 86 new hospitalizations (522 total), 73 ICU (-1), 44 Vent (+5), 10 dead Dec 24 11,229 new cases, 527 reinfections, 134 new hospitalizations (509 total), 74 ICU (+2), 39 vent (+1), 14 dead Dec 23 12,487 new cases, 613 reinfections, 158 new hospitalizations (541 total), 72 ICU (+6), 38 vent (+1), 15 dead Dec 22 13,386 new cases, 531 reinfections, 126 new hospitalizations (524 total), 66 ICU (-1), 37 vent (+2), 14 dead Dec 21 13,558 new cases, 501 reinfections, 121 new hospitalizations (526 total), 67 ICU (+1), 35 vent (+2), 17 dead Dec 20 10,082 new cases, (no reinf. data), 85 new hospitalizations (581 total), 66 ICU (+3), 33 vent (-2), 8 dead Dec 19 8,212 new cases Dec 18 8,594 new cases Dec 17 11,194 new cases Dec 16 9,999 new cases Dec 15 8,773 new cases, ??? reinfections, 96 new hospitalizations (508 total), 66 ICU (+0), 43 vent (-3), 9 dead Dec 13 7,799 new cases, ??? reinfections, 61 new hospitalizations (480 total), 64 ICU (-1), 42 vent (0), 9 dead Dec 12 5,989 new cases, ??? reinfections, 82 new hospitalizations (468 total), 65 ICU (+5), 42 vent (+6), 9 dead Dec 08 6,629 new cases, ??? reinfections, 72 new hospitalizations (461 total), 66 ICU (-1), 38 vent (-1), 7 dead Dec 01 5,120 new cases, ??? reinfections, 88 new hospitalizations (439 total), 35 ICU (+1), 35 vent (+1), 14 dead pre:Jan 11 10,486 (not good) Jan 10 23,176 (not good at all) Jan 09 16,325 (not good!) Jan 08 13,573 Jan 07 14,431 Jan 06 15,415 Jan 05 17,577 Jan 04 23,697 Jan 03 25,618 Jan 02 19,905 Jan 01 8,630 Dec 31 9,727 Dec 30 19,226 Dec 29 17,244 Dec 28 21,955 Dec 27 22,616 Dec 26 10,966 Dec 25 7,853 Dec 24 7,054 pre:Table 3: ICU status (reported biweekly) ------------------------------ 03 January 331 ICU beds, 76 COVID, 32 available 27 December 316 ICU beds, 71 COVID, 62 available 20 December 317 ICU beds, 60 COVID, 59 available 13 December 319 ICU beds, 64 COVID, 39 available 06 December 310 ICU beds, 67 COVID, 10 available <-- squeaky bum time here 29 November 318 ICU beds, 61 COVID, 25 available pre:Table 4. Rates per 100,000
Unvaccinated Partial Full Unvaccinated Partial Full
12 JAN New cases: 474.2 457.2 333.0 Hospitalizations: 49.4 35.0 10.0
11 JAN New cases: 447.9 434.8 303.3 Hospitalizations: 40.3 34.9 10.1
10 JAN New cases: 292.3 276.6 192.2 Hospitalizations: 42.8 34.8 10.3
09 JAN New cases: 403.6 367.3 276.6 Hospitalizations: 40.6 35.3 9.4
08 JAN New cases: 264.2 245.5 186.6 Hospitalizations: 39.7 31.3 9.8
07 JAN New cases: 413.9 365.6 272.3 Hospitalizations: 41.3 30.6 10.2
06 JAN New cases: 566.3 561.1 398.6 Hospitalizations: 40.4 33.9 10.3
05 JAN New cases: 586.9 576.8 445.9 Hospitalizations: 43.0 30.6 10.5
04 JAN* New cases: 512.2 533.3 390.8 Hospitalizations: 43.6 28.9 11.0
03 JAN* New cases: 165.6 153.7 135.7 Hospitalizations: 42.2 23.4 10.5
02 JAN New cases: 152.8 150.7 124.7 Hospitalizations: 41.4 18.7 9.5
01 JAN New cases: 437.8 413.6 331.2 Hospitalizations: 38.6 18.4 8.6
31 DEC New cases: 341.1 334.2 300.2 Hospitalizations: 37.8 20.7 8.6
30 DEC New cases: 409.2 391.5 345.5 Hospitalizations: 39.4 21.1 8.9
29 DEC New cases: 443.6 446.0 377.4 Hospitalizations: 40.1 18.5 9.1
28 DEC New cases: 237.3 208.2 210.2 Hospitalizations: 40.5 16.9 8.6
27 DEC New cases: 304.4 324.9 263.3 Hospitalizations: 40.0 15.8 7.8
26 DEC New cases: 310.4 274.9 241.2 Hospitalizations: 39.0 15.4 7.3
25 DEC New cases: 181.6 162.1 161.5 Hospitalizations: 33.9 16.0 6.8
24 DEC New cases: 184.1 173.0 182.1 Hospitalizations: 34.5 14.9 7.1
23 DEC New cases: 237.1 202.6 197.9 Hospitalizations: 35.4 16.2 7.5
22 DEC New cases: 257.1 198.1 211.7 Hospitalizations: 34.2 15.3 7.3
21 DEC New cases: 270.1 226.2 207.8 Hospitalizations: 32.9 14.3 7.5
20 DEC New cases: 201.2 154.4 149.0 Hospitalizations: 34.0 15.6 7.7
17 DEC New cases: 252.1 199.3 172.9 Hospitalizations: 31.0 14.9 6.8
15 DEC New cases: 216.0 153.3 121.6 Hospitalizations: 31.3 11.7 6.7
13 DEC New cases: 215.3 131.3 100.8 Hospitalizations: 29.8 11.5 6.6
08 DEC New cases: 193.5 126.9 80.9 Hospitalizations: 27.5 8.7 6.5
01 DEC New cases: 162.4 102.1 59.84 Hospitalizations: 24.6 11.3 6.1
25 NOV New cases: 134.7 120.9 52.97 Hospitalizations: 21.9 7.2 5.9
pre:1.77% on 1 December 4.8% on 6 December 10% on 8 December 22% on 12 December 37% on 14 December 50% on 17 December 60% on 20 December 70% on 21 December 74% on 22 December 81% on 24 December 84% on 26 December 86% on 27 December 92% on 29 December 93.6% on 01 January 96% on 07 January Sources: https://covid19.ssi.dk/overvagningsdata/download-fil-med-overvaagningdata https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/242ec2acc014456295189631586f1d26 https://covid19.ssi.dk/virusvarianter/delta-pcr Rust Martialis fucked around with this message at 21:24 on Jan 12, 2022 |
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Jan 12, 2022 20:33
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Willa Rogers posted:I'm unsure what you mean by this; could you give some examples, please? Maera Sior posted:"COVID wants to be less dangerous so it can spread better in mice instead of killing them" etc. This is very common phrasing amongst people who know a little about evolution and is a bane of people who teach it. Yes this exactly. It came up on another platform in the context of education, and I remembered similar things sometimes popping up in this thread. It can be a small obstacle when discussing evolution and (this is outside the context of this thread) fairly problematic when communicating with children, who can come to genuinely understand viruses as actual sentient things. Petey posted:(I'm not opposed to this being a rule for the thread, and I get what you're going for, but just FYI, this is a disputed point in history/philosophy of science; see e.g. Latour's Pasteurization of France, or, in the technological context, Mixing Humans & Nonhumans Together: The Sociology of a Door Closer. Part of the goal of actor-network theory and other material-semiotic methods, as I see it, is to simultaneously acknowledge that, if we do not make a priori ontological distinctions between them, a) nonhumans appear to have more agency than we traditionally give them, and b) humans much less, and these descriptions often have much more robust value than those which divide the world up in advance.) Nah I don't think we need to nickel and dime folks for small stuff so I'm not gonna throw in more rules unless some specific thing becomes an actual problem itt. That's some interesting stuff thanks, I'll check it out.
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Jan 12, 2022 21:01
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Petey posted:(I'm not opposed to this being a rule for the thread, and I get what you're going for, but just FYI, this is a disputed point in history/philosophy of science; see e.g. Latour's Pasteurization of France, or, in the technological context, Mixing Humans & Nonhumans Together: The Sociology of a Door Closer. Part of the goal of actor-network theory and other material-semiotic methods, as I see it, is to simultaneously acknowledge that, if we do not make a priori ontological distinctions between them, a) nonhumans appear to have more agency than we traditionally give them, and b) humans much less, and these descriptions often have much more robust value than those which divide the world up in advance.) I'd actually like to hear more about this, semiotics is incredibly fascinating.
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Jan 12, 2022 21:18
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Rust Martialis posted:Denmark - 12 January 2022 You guys, I think this is neither mild nor going away...
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Jan 12, 2022 21:35
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PT6A posted:You guys, I think this is neither mild nor going away... Nonsense, it's very m... https://twitter.com/Steenshorne/status/1475700757735383042 https://twitter.com/DoctorBrant/status/1481026144874946564
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Jan 12, 2022 21:43
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So a pretty simple area under the curve just drawing a triangle using the UW model (IHME) for estimated Omicron infections... 180 -190 million infections in the US from end of December to end of Feb. 
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Jan 12, 2022 22:14
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:1) If places with high vaccination rates, literal islands, and stricter lockdowns than the U.S. like Australia are seeing the same Omicron surge and even closing in on the same weekly deaths per capita as the US, then what is the end game scenario for Covid? If even New Zealand says they are abandoning the idea of containing Covid and moving to a model of endemic mitigation, then what is the most successful realistic long-term scenario for Covid look like? A combination of the population getting increased immunity via either continued vaccination, improved vaccines or repeated exposure, plus the vast majority of people who die being unvaccinated (thus continually lowering the number of unvaccinated and un-exposed people), plus the virus potentially mutating into less deadly versions as it's done with Omicron, means pressure on hospitals from COVID waves gradually drops. People no longer need to quarantine from having asymptomatic COVID, let alone being a close contact; ideally the pandemic changes cultural mores so that having any kind of cold or cough means you stay home until you're over it. COVID becomes a commonly circulating disease that we all catch every year or so and if we're unlucky we feel like poo poo for a week even if we've had our annual or six-monthly booster shot. That's the best realistic good outcome I can think of, which still looks like a bad outcome from a 2019 vantage point or even a 2020 vantage point. There are of course worse potential outcomes. Suzera posted:The cases explode like this because the regions give up their effective strategies. They don't usually give up their effective strategies because the cases explode in places where it was well contained before. For the millionth time: this is precisely the opposite of what happened in both New Zealand and Australia. It is a flat-out lie. We "gave up" our strategies because they were no longer effective against Delta; Delta case numbers were exploding in spite of enacting the same lockdown measures New Zealand and the various Australian states used to crush OG COVID in 2020. Changing your strategy when your strategy is no longer working isn't "giving up."
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Jan 12, 2022 22:31
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freebooter posted:For the millionth time: this is precisely the opposite of what happened in both New Zealand and Australia. It is a flat-out lie. We "gave up" our strategies because they were no longer effective against Delta; Delta case numbers were exploding in spite of enacting the same lockdown measures New Zealand and the various Australian states used to crush OG COVID in 2020. Changing your strategy when your strategy is no longer working isn't "giving up." For the millionth time the idea that the case numbers were 'exploding in spite of lockdown ' is the flat out lie here. The lockdown stabilised the case numbers. It was clearly not as effective as it used to be but it continued to make an obvious impact. One might still come to the conclusion that lockdowns are no longer viable, but your insistence in framing the weeks of stable 1000-2000 cases as an explosion in numbers (particularly given the actual explosion in numbers that has subsequently occurred, after ending the lockdowns) is deceitful. Changing your strategy from lockdowns to other restrictions to suppress transmission is not necessarily giving up but changing to no restrictions and 'we expect everyone to get omicron' absolutely is.
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Jan 12, 2022 23:20
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https://twitter.com/songpinganq/status/1480157037681995779?s=20 For what it worth I've had a look and it seems legit...although who knows. Have a scroll through the thread. I think it's an interesting look at what zero-covid (sort of, they're still having small outbreaks) actually looks like. The idea that this is even remotely feasible in anything other than an absolutely authoritarian government is absurd. Most western governments can't build a tunnel without 6 years of planning.
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Jan 12, 2022 23:25
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ModernMajorGeneral posted:For the millionth time the idea that the case numbers were 'exploding in spite of lockdown ' is the flat out lie here. The lockdown stabilised the case numbers. It was clearly not as effective as it used to be but it continued to make an obvious impact. One might still come to the conclusion that lockdowns are no longer viable, but your insistence in framing the weeks of stable 1000-2000 cases as an explosion in numbers (particularly given the actual explosion in numbers that has subsequently occurred, after ending the lockdowns) is deceitful. Going from a handful of cases earlier in the year to 2k cases a day despite strict lockdowns doesn't sound stable to me. It sounds like the exact opposite of that, in fact. It sounds like lockdowns were no longer effective, and the government shifted strategies rather than continue trying to force an ineffective strategy.
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Jan 12, 2022 23:25
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Maybe I'm more community-minded than others, but I'd rather go to a COVID camp and have my needs seen to in order to recover than potentially expose my whole family or whatever. I think largely it comes down to a question of who you are as a person: would you rather go through hell for a few weeks, or spend the next 1-3 years in a state of constant fuckery? I'd take the shorter-term hell. I would much rather worse-for-shorter, rather than less-bad-for-longer.
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Jan 12, 2022 23:34
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Illuminti posted:https://twitter.com/songpinganq/status/1480157037681995779?s=20 That poo poo looks awesome, thanks for bringing this to the attention of the thread. Fresh food delivered right to you while protecting others from harm. China keeps working to protect its citizens while the US continues to ignore the bodies piling up.
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Jan 12, 2022 23:42
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