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There has been a lot of hand-wringing over the past week or so following the Robin Hobb AMA/Jane Johnson Twitter/WoW is "years away" chain of events. Initially, I, too, was severely disappointed and took Mrs. Johnson's Twitter comments at face value (i.e. that we should expect Winds of Winter to come out in 2015 at the very earliest). Looking over the (admittedly few) facts that we do have concerning the secrecy-shrouded release date for the book, however, I have done a complete 180 and am now almost positive that the book will come out this summer.

First of all, I do of course acknowledge that I hope I am right, but if we look at the bare facts and try to draw the most logical conclusion, I think any disinterested observer would come to a similar conclusion.

In total, there are five pieces of evidence that appear to give some hint as to when we might expect WoW to come out. They are, in order of importance: Very supportive: Robin Hobb's AMA comment Supportive: Roy Dortice's interview Slightly supportive: GRRM's previous comments regarding WoW Neutral: Jane Johnson Twitter comments Let's go through one by one:

1) Robin Hobb's AMA

Robin Hobb is both a personal friend of GRRM and a fellow fantasy writer who shares the same UK publisher and has a fantasy book coming out this year. It is extremely likely that she knows the status of WoW. Her comments regarding the release date can either be interpreted as (A) a misinterpreted joke or (B) her accidentally spilling the beans. I think (B) is the much more likely answer.

Here is her direct quote when asked about when WoW would be coming out:

Oh, I haven't finished writing it for George yet . . . Seriously, I think it is supposed to come out in July 2014. The month before The Fool's Assassin. I am just sure that everyone will have spent their pocket money on George's book and will have nothing left to buy mine .
The first sentence is clearly tongue-in-cheek, but how about the second one? It doesn't look like a joke to me, especially since she starts the sentence with "Seriously", which, when said after a joke, almost never means "another joke is on the way." It's possible, but it's definitely unlikely. If you look over the rest of her AMA, she answers the questions she chooses to respond to, and when she can't and or doesn't want to say, she says so. If all three sentences were said in jest, that would be the only time she answered a questions during her AMA with a non-answer. Again, possible, but is that really more likely than her accidentally letting a secret slip?

Also, look at how specific she is - JULY 2014. If she was going for the "unlucky me" joke, why wouldn't she say it's coming out the same day, or the day before, or the week before?

Check out the above quote again: does the second sentence really seem like a haha joke to you, or does it look like she's actually answering the question that was asked? The latter simply seems much more likely.

2)Jane Johnson tweets

Surely the most controversial part of the issue were the tweets by Ms. Johnson, GRRM and Robin Hobb's UK editor. Here is the original exchange, which she later deleted, in favor of saying that the book would at least certainly not be coming out this year. While this looks like the kiss of death to any hope of getting the book this year (as it was said by someone in the know), in reality it tells us very little. When WoW comes out, whether this year or any other, it will be one of the biggest, if the not the single biggest, release of the year. The hype is enormous and growing, and it's obvious that GRRM and his publishers intend to use this to their maximum advantage. Part of doing that is announcing the release at the best possible time. So for the release date to be spoiled during the AMA of a niche author would be a travesty to that plan.

So IF Robin Hobb did accidentally spill the release date, this is exactly the kind of response you would expect - quick and vehement denial. That way, when the book is announced, there would be maximum jubilation (and pre-orders). To be clear, I am not arguing that Ms. Johnson's tweets say anything unambiguously - I'm just saying we should expect Ms Johnson to be looking out for the best interests of what is sure to be a multi-million dollar book release, not to be worried about tempering fan enthusiasm (enthusiasm which should only increase the purchasing mania when the book actually is released).

3)Roy Dotrice interview

This one is also frustratingly inconclusive, but also gives added weight to the theory that WoW will be coming out this summer. Roy Dotrice does the audiobooks for ASOIAF, and in this interview from December says the following when asked what it was like to do the voices for the books:

I think I've done five so far, and they've all been very successful...well the series made out of them...how many have they done in the series now? Three, isn't it? So that's still two more to go and George, uh, tells me he's got another one nearly ready...that'll be at least a few more years work anyway
For some reason, people insist on interpreting the part of quote where he says "George...tells me he's got another one nearly ready" to mean anything but the obvious - that George has told Dotrice that he has another book on the way. He would tell him that because (A) from what I understand, they are friends and (B) it would be pretty relevant to the guy who does all the audiobooks. Why would that quote mean that "George" has another season of GoT nearly ready? Dotrice seems non-senile enough to understand that GRRM's purview is mainly the books and is only moderately involved in the actual making of the TV show.

Again, what's more likely: that Dotrice innocently passed along some info regarding the upcoming release of WoW that he got from his friend and business associate, GRRM? Or that he non-nonsensically mentions that George has another season nearly ready? I saw the first.

4)GRRM's previous comments regarding WoW

I don't consider this crucial to the case for WoW/Summer2014, but it bears mentioning. Since the end of GoT season 3, GRRM has repeatedly stated that he understands he must write more quickly than normal in order to stay ahead of the series. So he has motivation on this level. Guessing exactly how fast he is writing is pure speculation, but it is also clear that what made AFFC and ADWD take so long was that he at first spent a significant amount of time writing material that he would later scrap completely (the 5 year flash forward) and then wrote himself into the particularly tricky so-called Mereenese knot. On the three other books where the writing was more straightforward, he was able to finish them much more quickly. And since there is nothing to suggest that he has gotten himself into any more such situations (in fact quite the opposite, he "started" with ~100 completed pages from ADWD), it seems more likely that his writing would be faster than the past two books, even without the added motivation of staying ahead of the show.

Now I realize his last update was in April 2013 when he said he had ~400 pages completed (about 25%), but that does not take into account the hundreds of pages that were in various stages of editing/close to completion. There's no way of knowing how many there were and how many he has written since, so this point does not support either argument. One more final mini-point before I wrap it up, which has been made recently on this subreddit, is the financial one. Most people who have read the books agree that Season 4 will have the juciest material yet, and GoT mania will likely be at its highest, most fevered pitch come this summer. Judging from the cashgrab/travesty that is the "Wit and Wisdom of Tyrion Lannister", we can be sure GRRM retains significant interest in the almighty dollar, and there would be no better time, financially speaking, to release the next book than at the point of maximum GoT mania.

Conclusion Get pumped. Between Season 4 and the imminent WoW release, April to July 2014 will be the best time to be a ASOIAF fan ever.

TL;DR: No single piece of evidence concerning the release date for WoW is fully convincing in itself, but taken together, they strongly suggest that the book will come out during the summer. Two people who almost certainly have intimate knowledge of the upcoming book have made comments whose most likely interpretation accords with this theory.

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

Conclusion Get pumped. Between Season 4 and the imminent WoW release, April to July 2014 will be the best time to be a ASOIAF fan ever.

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

Vichan posted:

If you want a real laugh you should look up the various predictions/theories on the battle of Winterfell on that subreddit. It's glorious.

Vichan posted:

It's glorious.

Calaveron posted:

But does the ending really gloss over Sam defecting from the night's watch and breaking all of his vows and just hanging out in the capital helping to rule the country.
Also I still can't believe they had the entire retelling of everything that happened omit Tyrion, who is perhaps the single most influential character in the story

Vichan posted:

If you want a real laugh you should look up the various predictions/theories on the battle of Winterfell on that subreddit. It's glorious.

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

Now I realize his last update was in April 2013 when he said he had ~400 pages completed (about 25%)

Vichan posted:

While we're on the topic of the ASOIAF subreddit.

Vichan posted:

While we're on the topic of the ASOIAF subreddit.

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🏆 Best of 2020: Post of the Year

TWOW will be at least 90 chapters, probably a hundred. With 10+ each for Tyrion and Daenerys. ASOS had 81 chapters and TWOW was probably planned to be about that long, even before including the 12-20 battle chapters that were supposed to be in ADWD.

I think we're looking at exceeding To Green Angel Towers's 520,000 word count.

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I was really enjoying this until I read that Euron is slain by Sam and Alleras. In my opinion it is almost certain that he will bring down a dragon.

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Sam killing Euron sounds like fanfic

Sephyr posted:

Bran I

Bran improves his skills and some cave stuff happens.

I think I may have cracked a rib laughing.

Vichan posted:

While we're on the topic of the ASOIAF subreddit.

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

I enjoy this stuff for the same reason why I love the never ending Star Citizen saga. It�s the same kind of mindset of sunk cost, desperation, and hilarity.

TERFherder posted:

"Tyrion designs saddles for Rhaegal and Viserion."

Jazerus posted:

this is extremely lmao

dude designed a saddle once and now he's the world's greatest saddler

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Alright, so naturally most of us really, really, really want "The Winds of Winter" to come out (including myself). Some of us have given up on it ever coming out. And even among those of us who have not there are some of us who think Winds will come out but "A Dream of Spring" will not and so the series will never be never finished.

They say that George has let the story grow beyond his control and that he cannot finish it in time or some even say that he could never finish it no matter what.

I don't know whether this is true or not. I don't know what's causing the delays, I don't know what George is thinking. I don't know how fast he'll be able to write "A Dream of Spring." I don't know any of these things. But I will say this: I would rather have a great series than a complete series.

Don't get me wrong, do I want George to complete this series? Yes. Do I really, really, really want to reads Winds and Dream? Yes, absolutely. I want George to finish the series. There's no doubt about that. But I also want it to be fantastic.

What I'm basically saying is this: If I had to choose between getting rid of Thrones, Clash, Storm, Feast and Dance as they are and replacing them with books that have... similar storylines and characters but not as detailed, not as expansive, not as many storylines, not as much political complexity, a setting that isn't as deep, etc. but where they were simple enough that I was sure George could finish the series (or where maybe Dream would even already be out) vs. keeping Thrones, Clash, Storm, Feast and Dance as they are and either getting an equally great Winds and no "A Dream of Spring" or never getting Winds or Dream... I would choose the latter.

I've seen/read plenty of TV-series and books. Stuff that was moderately good. And I've enjoyed plenty of it. But it's very rare that a TV-series or book series captures my attention like "A Song of Ice & Fire" has. I can spend days falling down a theory rabbit hole on these books. Reread every chapter several times over and still find new things and still enjoy the experience. I can look into the world and discuss the complexities of its politics and characters with other people for hours without getting bored. These books have captured my imagination and my passion in a way that TV-series or books rarely do. And I wouldn't trade this fantastic journey in for just another moderately good series.

So if I have to choose between a truly fantastic series like this one that is never finished vs. yet another moderately good fantasy series that is finished (a great many of which already exist) then I pick the fantastic series that is never finished.

Doesn't mean I don't want to see it finished (I do) but I wouldn't want George to ever compromise or have compromised on quality or complexity. Because then it would be just one more book series among the thousands.

If you feel differently about it, hey, I understand. It has been an incredibly long wait for Winds and the series never being finished would be incredibly frustrating considering our investment in it. I can respect that people have other opinions on it. I get people's frustration, but this is just my personal opinion.

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Btw, just to add the one last thing: Of course I'd rather have BOTH a great series AND a completed series. But if you go off of the idea that the series will never be finished because George has just allowed the story and the setting to grow beyond his control where it's so complex and so deep that he can't finish it anymore, then you're basically pointing to a choice. Where George could have either made things less complex and deep and expansive and finished the series, or he could have kept it like this with the risk of potentially never finishing the series.

And what I'm saying in that context is that if I was somehow able to tell George what to choose there, some people might have told him to scrap a bunch of storylines and characters, etc. so he could finish the story but I wouldn't have. I would've wanted him to keep things exactly as complex as they are even if I knew that meant he would never be able to finish the series.

I just wanted to clarify that since otherwise some people might think like "Well, why are these two things mutually exclusive?" They're not necessarily. But for people who chalk the delays up to the complexity and depth of the story there would logically have to be a trade-off there.

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

It�s long since become apparent that many ASoIAF fans literally can�t grasp the concept that writing is a profession and that if you are only capable of putting out your �best� work by writing yourself into an endless maze of ever more diverging subplots and loose ends that you�ll never be on the hook for satisfyingly resolving it means you aren�t actually good at it.

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

It doesn't look like a joke to me, especially since she starts the sentence with "Seriously", which, when said after a joke, almost never means "another joke is on the way." It's possible, but it's definitely unlikely.

TERFherder posted:

This is fanfic right? Not someone claiming to have actual inside info? Or is it a covert attempt to get a timeline to GRRM so he has something to work off of?

ChubbyChecker posted:

why do you read all those mile long reddit posts

emanresu tnuocca posted:

It's really funny how this schlock sexy fake medieval history gets treated like scripture by all these people, we live in a special time in human history.

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

Euron in particular has been a part of the story that had been so disproportionately hyped up over 11 years of fan speculation that there are heated arguments of whether he will be a subversive take on building up a Dark Lord who immediately fails which seems like a really unnecessary diversion from things that matter or is actually a real Dark Lord which is incredibly lame to introduce midway through a story.

Coquito Ergo Sum posted:

I like the theory that he's a charlatan when it comes to the dark magic and gods and stuff but that he's still just a dangerous psycho at heart.

Whizzing Wizard posted:

I remember reading somewhere that Robert Jordan would spend days researching late-renaissance salt mining towns of central Europe and then mention the town for a sentence as the characters rode past it.

I don't think the same is true for our Railroad owning non-writer

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

I love how the coping mechanisms for there being no new books has devolved to “is the series just so historically amazing that not even GRRM himself can possibly live up to it?”

SirKibbles posted:

Lovely fanbase you have here GRRM

https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/s3yg87/baela_and_rhaena_targaryen_spoilers_production/

Like they deadass don't see a problem with all the main roles being white people. ASOIAF is diverse.....all the non white people are like secondary and side characters though so I hope you weren't expecting to get decent pay lol