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steinrokkan posted:You didn't include the time he took his dog to a conference with Merkel, who is terrified of dogs (totally not intentionally, though) Yeah but you can't blame the dog for that, it wouldn't hurt even that loving rabbit 
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Jan 13, 2022 18:04
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Poor dog doesn't look happy to be there either
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Jan 13, 2022 18:06
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steinrokkan posted:You didn't include the time he took his dog to a conference with Merkel, who is terrified of dogs (totally not intentionally, though) This was a scumbag move.
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Jan 13, 2022 18:10
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Nenonen posted:Cuba is quite stable, I doubt the Cuban government wants Russians there to escalate tensions unless Russians pay a sweet rent. (He can't possibly follow through on this ""threat"" anyways?) Grouchio fucked around with this message at 18:25 on Jan 13, 2022 |
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Jan 13, 2022 18:18
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Polish diocese, sued by the victim of its paedophile priest, requested the court to check the victims sexuality and whether its possible they felt pleasure. https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114883,28000057,kuria-chciala-sprawdzenia-orientacji-ofiary-ksiedza-pedofila.html#s=BoxOpImg2 Edit: https://apnews.com/article/europe-religion-poland-sexual-abuse-by-clergy-60bdb1493e36473402f570327744d644 Mokotow fucked around with this message at 22:23 on Jan 13, 2022 |
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Jan 13, 2022 18:26
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I think since the NATO-Russia Negotiations have collapsed I genuinely think that Russia will try something in Ukraine, its hard to tell though wether itll be an invasion or some other thing but I think the Russian decision makers have pretty much come to the conclusion that losing Ukraine to NATO is too much of a strategic and security setback to bear.
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Jan 13, 2022 18:32
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At the very least they're going to secure a land bridge to Crimea with access to the Dnieper.
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Jan 13, 2022 18:43
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Red and Black posted:It's difficult to prove what someones intentions are in using a term. I would point to the syntax of the term, it's similarity to the term Holocaust (in English), and the fact that similar terms haven't been discovered in English for the many other famines that have occurred throughout history (Ireland and Bengal come to mind). I would be happy if it were accepted that I personally don't use the term because of these connotations and there's nothing malicious about describing the historical event as the Ukrainian Famine. In Ireland I frequently hear people use the term the Great Hunger or an Gorta Mr (even among people who really don't know any Irish at all), so its not really that unusual that people will come up with more particular terms that elevate certain extremely traumatic famines.
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Jan 13, 2022 19:23
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Hasn't Russia already pretty much guaranteed that by occupying the eastern part of Ukraine that Ukraine cant join NATO? Like I was under the impression that a country that it's in state of civil war or foreign occupation isn't allowed into NATO? So basically Russia could just keep the status quo and achieve their strategic objective.
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Jan 13, 2022 20:05
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Charliegrs posted:Hasn't Russia already pretty much guaranteed that by occupying the eastern part of Ukraine that Ukraine cant join NATO? Like I was under the impression that a country that it's in state of civil war or foreign occupation isn't allowed into NATO? So basically Russia could just keep the status quo and achieve their strategic objective. You get it, yes. Any further military push ought to purse some different objective - freshwater supply to Crimea, depriving Ukraine from access to Sea of Azov, etcetera.
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Jan 13, 2022 20:08
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cinci zoo sniper posted:You get it, yes. Any further military push ought to purse some different objective - freshwater supply to Crimea, depriving Ukraine from access to Sea of Azov, etcetera. Or making Ukraine come to table and let Russia have what it wants (Crimea, guarantees of not seeking membership in any western organisation without Russia's permission etc.) in exchange to end of violence. But the talks are not yet fully over, talking tough and rattling saber is nothing new in this process. Or they could be and Tom Clancy's invisible hand is guiding Putin's every move.
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Jan 13, 2022 20:20
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Seriously speaking, I dont believe that Russia is interested in talking about anything other than rebooting INF Treaty. The Ukraine demands package to me is a cringeworthy comedy set up to fulfil the sole purpose of granting Kremlin purported moral high ground for publicly reaffirming whatever comes next.
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Jan 13, 2022 20:29
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not a regular in this thread at all so forgive my ignorance: whenever I read "Russia Experts" online talking about putin messing around somewhere they always make the point that Russia's reliance on cyber-attacks and proxies comes from the same reason that the US is so reliant on Sanctions, Drones, and mercenaries which is that the politicans think that soldiers actually dying is going to make things get really bad for them really fast. How would that play into the threat of actually invading Ukraine. Is it so important that this actually a cost the russians are willing to bear or is it just going to be blitzkrieg hit them hard, fast and get out after maybe installing a putin-friendly regime? Or are the russian experts just talking out of their rear end?
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Jan 13, 2022 21:12
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Soldiers dying is not great, but, for the question, it's worth remembering that invasion can mean something other than "occupying the entirety of the 2nd largest country in Europe and killing all 1.2 million of its military service members in hand-to-hand combat". Since Ukrainian army is dressed in Lithuanian second-hand and has combat experience of being bombed by Russian artillery and fighting some store brand mercenary thugs, there's a wealth of objectives the actually experienced, and well-equipped, Russian armies can achieve with little to no blood. Even if Ukrainian forces try to hold their ground.
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Jan 13, 2022 21:27
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:not a regular in this thread at all so forgive my ignorance: Russia already annexed a bit of Ukraine and are now poised towards annexing a bit more - they certainly have the force disposition to do so with few losses. While they may go for targets of opportunity depending on the weather and how the Ukranian military responds, a direct regime change is unrealistic. Military action would however kick the teeth in of the current government, painting it and its Western backers as impotent. This is a costly action, which would indicate Putin/military planners feel they have no other recourse to secure geopolitical objectives. Note also that mobilizing forces to the magnitude they already have is in itself costly and they wouldn't have done so without serious intent to follow through. That's the quick of it.
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Jan 13, 2022 21:27
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Conspiratiorist posted:Russia already annexed a bit of Ukraine and are now poised towards annexing a bit more - they certainly have the force disposition to do so with few losses. I disagree. I think the goal here is regime change. Russia doesn't particularly need more land.
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Jan 13, 2022 21:41
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Soldiers dying is not great, but, for the question, it's worth remembering that invasion can mean something other than "occupying the entirety of the 2nd largest country in Europe and killing all 1.2 million of its military service members in hand-to-hand combat". Since Ukrainian army is dressed in Lithuanian second-hand and has combat experience of being bombed by Russian artillery and fighting some store brand mercenary thugs, there's a wealth of objectives the actually experienced, and well-equipped, Russian armies can achieve with little to no blood. Even if Ukrainian forces try to hold their ground. Practically any Ukrainian defense will quickly become untenable if there's a march from crimea and Donetsk simultaneously. Or Ukraine has to mount a majority of defense along a natural barrier like let's say the dniper. Defense in depth along the Donetsk border would just be so loving stupid and that in itself is a benefit to Russia.
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Jan 13, 2022 22:00
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Conspiratiorist posted:Note also that mobilizing forces to the magnitude they already have is in itself costly and they wouldn't have done so without serious intent to follow through. This is why folks are actively parroting Russian propaganda that, just because the US is unwilling to put American lives on the line, there's nothing worth the West doing. In actuality, the West rallying to impose costs short of committing boots on the ground is a genuine impediment to Russia reigniting the conflict. There's a constant demeaning of these efforts, intended to discourage them to make it easier for either Putin to invade or for his intended victims to cave. Were they truly meaningless, Russian soldiers would be in Kiev already. Cugel the Clever fucked around with this message at 22:13 on Jan 13, 2022 |
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Jan 13, 2022 22:11
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FishBulbia posted:I disagree. I think the goal here is regime change. Russia doesn't particularly need more land. Russia annexing the most Russophone regions in Ukraine probably ensures that a democratic Ukrainian government friendly to Russia is largely impossible simply due to the shift in demographics. The alternative is a non-democratic Ukrainian government controlled by Russia but I don't see how you could achieve that without full-scale invasion and occupation.
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Jan 13, 2022 23:16
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Al-Saqr posted:I think since the NATO-Russia Negotiations have collapsed I genuinely think that Russia will try something in Ukraine, its hard to tell though wether itll be an invasion or some other thing but I think the Russian decision makers have pretty much come to the conclusion that losing Ukraine to NATO is too much of a strategic and security setback to bear. NATO membership is basically impossible if you're a country with actively militarily disputed territory. So Putin already accomplished that goal three times over with Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk. Especially the latter two. If anything that was the goal in question when those two statelet thingies were allowed to happened.
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Jan 14, 2022 00:21
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Cugel the Clever posted:Disagree with this. The whole thing is theater with intent of achieving goals with minimal cost possible. Putin clearly believes this bluff necessary, but actually following through on it is orders of magnitude more costly, particularly given limited, but real Western support for Ukraine. The mobilization leaves him with the option of pursuing kinetic action, but the only thing that will prove intent to follow through is actually following through. Great points. Right now Putin is domestically dealing with a bad economy, an increasingly unhappy populace and covid. In the invasion case there's just a few scenarios that don't make the first two worse (Ukraine folds with few casualties and no sanctions), otherwise after triumphantly reuniting the slavs it's back to the bunker and putting down revolts by CIA agents upset about prices all the way until 2024 when he needs to get re-elected In the extorting security guarantees theatre case the bunker and revolts is probably the eventual outcome too. Kazakhstan showed that retirement to be a supersenator and a power handover are too dangerous. Would love to hear if anyone sees options left except to further repress anyone opposed and hold onto power until the last breadth Somaen fucked around with this message at 01:45 on Jan 14, 2022 |
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Jan 14, 2022 01:43
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I don't think people get that sanctions are nothing burgers for anyone except the civilian populace. You can just buy the poo poo from a third party country that isn't sanctioned. The whole point of sanctions is for domestic issues to boil over and stop the agressor on the home front. It's worked SOOOO well that Guido is in power, Cuba is capitalist and Iran is no longer an independent country!
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Jan 14, 2022 02:03
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Somaen posted:In the extorting security guarantees theatre case the bunker and revolts is probably the eventual outcome too. Kazakhstan showed that retirement to be a supersenator and a power handover are too dangerous. Would love to hear if anyone sees options left except to further repress anyone opposed and hold onto power until the last breadth I hadn't thought about that, Putin must be really spooked about whatever retirement plans he had.
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Jan 14, 2022 02:19
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Speaking of which anyone wanna take bets on how long Kazakhstan takes to re-rename the capital city?
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Jan 14, 2022 02:19
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Somaen posted:Great points. Right now Putin is domestically dealing with a bad economy, an increasingly unhappy populace and covid. In the invasion case there's just a few scenarios that don't make the first two worse (Ukraine folds with few casualties and no sanctions), otherwise after triumphantly reuniting the slavs it's back to the bunker and putting down revolts by CIA agents upset about prices all the way until 2024 when he needs to get re-elected oh so its pre-falkland argentina except he isn't invading a great power on the idea that they won't care enough about some rocks to respond
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Jan 14, 2022 02:32
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Grape posted:Speaking of which anyone wanna take bets on how long Kazakhstan takes to re-rename the capital city? A month or two, but after Crimea Im not betting about EE politics.
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Jan 14, 2022 02:35
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:I don't think people get that sanctions are nothing burgers for anyone except the civilian populace. You can just buy the poo poo from a third party country that isn't sanctioned. The whole point of sanctions is for domestic issues to boil over and stop the agressor on the home front. It's worked SOOOO well that Guido is in power, Cuba is capitalist and Iran is no longer an independent country! Does it work? Who knows! I'm certainly not qualified to answer. But the persistent, vocal protestations from Moscow that the efforts are meaningless suggests that there absolutely are steps the West is undertaking that strike a nerve. Of course, until European countries expropriate the vast array of poo poo kleptocrats have purchased, it's hard to say how serious any efforts are.
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Jan 14, 2022 02:41
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Cugel the Clever posted:We've come a long way from just blanket embargoing a country and it's not often what's proposed when people argue for imposing costs. Policymakers, unlike some gungho political appointees, increasingly recognize that making the entire populace suffer isn't "just" inhumane, but is, horror of horrors, often ineffective. A blanket embargo offers a clear and present reminder of the foreign devils from which only the glorious leader can protect the common man. Plus, the people already in power are well-poised to make bank running the smuggling rings that get the embargoed goods into the country. Instead, targeted sanctions, narrow and finely-tuned toward specific regime stakeholders are leveraged to shape outcomes. Now is that sanctions or the reach of CIA in terms of targeted killings, political scandals, opposition funding and general maria poo poo that's causing Moscow to feel pain? Because as Russia is a mafia state I would see that scarcity is beneficial to the oligarchs.
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Jan 14, 2022 02:54
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Anne Frank Funk posted:Bring Admiral Kuznetsov closer to direct oil source IMO Oh god they are actually going to send it to Drydock for refit this summer. Article says nothing about a modern engine.... https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/11/russias-aircraft-carrier-admiral-kuznetsov-to-resume-repairs-in-june-2022/  
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Jan 14, 2022 03:17
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Preoptopus posted:Oh god they are actually going to send it to Drydock for refit this summer. Article says nothing about a modern engine.... at this point i'm just hoping they put the poor ol' kuznetsov out of its misery already. it's suffered enough 
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Jan 14, 2022 03:20
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"" Biden's National Security Advisor Sullivan says intelligence community sees that Russia may be preparing for fabricating pretext of an invasion of Ukraine. He adds that the US has not determined yet that Putin has decided on military path forward ""
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Jan 14, 2022 03:25
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:"" why? who is this for? is this victoria 2? who will be fooled by this?
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Jan 14, 2022 03:49
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How long does it take to recoal a ship like that?
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Jan 14, 2022 03:57
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:why? who is this for? is this victoria 2? who will be fooled by this? Let's see, Russian citizens will be the ones to suffer from Russia invading Ukraine. So if you convince them that the Ukrainians did this. They're already propaganda addled mind will process these little treats and go the Ukrainian gay Nazi Jew coalition is going to kill us all! While taking sanctions and decreasing pensions to heel. And this is really a galaxy brain take that I thought of for two seconds: Russia will utilize propaganda tactics to court the American far right and get pro Russian talking points going and the GDP will be forced to deny Ukraines existence to get their votes. You'll see "Ukraine did this to the Russians thet must protect themselves" and prolly on the level of Assad denialism from them WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 04:07 on Jan 14, 2022 |
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Jan 14, 2022 04:00
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:why? who is this for? is this victoria 2? who will be fooled by this? The same kind of people who believed in Iraqi WMDs. So anyone who wants to believe.
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Jan 14, 2022 05:11
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Cugel the Clever posted:Disagree with this. The whole thing is theater with intent of achieving goals with minimal cost possible. Putin clearly believes this bluff necessary, but actually following through on it is orders of magnitude more costly, particularly given limited, but real Western support for Ukraine. The mobilization leaves him with the option of pursuing kinetic action, but the only thing that will prove intent to follow through is actually following through. Russia sat at the table with the US and NATO and the 'security guarantees' they presented were non-starters. They never had intention to negotiate, so what's it a bluff for?
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Jan 14, 2022 05:21
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Conspiratiorist posted:Russia sat at the table with the US and NATO and the 'security guarantees' they presented were non-starters. And even if compromise isn't the end goal, that doesn't necessarily mean invasion is on the table! The whole thing could be an effort to impose stress on Ukraine in hopes that something breaks, minus the need to actually risk Russians for it. Costly? Sure, but less costly than outright invasion/occupation. The expense involved does highlight the priority of Putin's ambitions for expanding his sphere of influence, but the only way we'll learn just how he's calculating costs against rewards is looking back a year from now (and even that's going to be a lot of guesswork). And, sure, it may well turn out that there's nothing in the world that could deter him from invasion and we'll all wake up to Russian tanks on the Maidan in the morning. But the smartest thing for Ukraine and the West to do right now is shore up ties, bolster defences, and root out the pawns of Russian imperialism who wield a disturbing amount of power in NATO-aligned states. There's a ton of recourse short of boots on the ground that can shift the calculus, all of which is valuable in the long run even should Putin prove determined to act at any cost.
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Jan 14, 2022 05:56
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Cugel the Clever posted:They have multiple audiences. For the actual states they're negotiating with, they're doing exactly what folks criticized Obama for not doing when putting Obamacare through Congress: staking out a maximalist aim in an attempt to anchor any subsequent compromise. For general audiences, it's just more Russia stronk propaganda: "bold, mighty Russia take uncompromising stand against effeminate Yankee menace!" They know the audience will either not be paying attention or straight up won't care when any actual modus vivendi reached isn't the the entirety of what was asked for up front.  Edit: Strap in folks this starts shortly https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1481866343104360450?s=20 Grouchio fucked around with this message at 07:12 on Jan 14, 2022 |
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Jan 14, 2022 06:48
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This is the provocation period.
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Jan 14, 2022 07:26
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Preoptopus posted:Oh god they are actually going to send it to Drydock for refit this summer. Article says nothing about a modern engine.... Maybe this time the drydock won't sink?
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Jan 14, 2022 08:19
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