COVID-19: People on the internet are judging me for going outside. It used to be the reverse.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > COVID-19: People on the internet are judging me for going outside. It used to be the reverse.

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tagesschau: Sep 1, 2006; D&D: HASBARA SQUAD
THE SPEECH SUPPRESSOR

Remember: it's "antisemitic" to protest genocide as long as the targets are brown.

virtualboyCOLOR posted:

Biden has not lead his party to put mask mandates and distance learning in place. Your example of Chicago is a great one because Biden should be publicly calling out Lightfoot for her callous behavior.

What makes you think that every Democrat in the country is somehow answerable to the president just because he's a Democrat, or that political parties in the United States have ever worked that way?

Also, you act as though these things take place in a political vacuum. Sending kids back to ~~glorified daycare~~ school polls much better than you might think, so coming out against it is not without risk. I was surprised to see one of my friends make a post on social media lauding that letter from Ontario pediatricians saying that kids need to be back in the classroom, even though there's a drat good chance that sending them all back on Monday will mean everything closes back down again by the end of the month.

virtualboyCOLOR posted:

Also I seem to recall there were actions taken when desegregation was going on and local counties didn�t abide by the rules. Something when enforcement using tools within the executive branch.

So what do you expect? Is Kathy Hochul supposed to send in the National Guard to strap N95s to kids' faces in Nassau County?

virtualboyCOLOR posted:

You have not addressed how it is different other than there is a variant.

I did, in fact, mention that it was more transmissible. The increased transmissibility, combined with the fact that the vaccines are less effective at preventing infection, means the same amount of effort that would have brought COVID to near-zero levels under the Trump administration, or even two months ago, would not achieve the same thing today.

virtualboyCOLOR posted:

It is still a virus and we are still in a pandemic. This as pedantic as complaint about about someone typing the number 4 instead of the word four.

So pointing out the fact that we face a meaningfully different threat than we did two months ago is pedantry? Different things are indeed different from one another.

virtualboyCOLOR posted:

I have already said he ISN�T doing anything is states and counties with Dem control. It sounds as if you are saying there is absolutely nothing Biden can do. I have asked you for examples of what he can do and all you have done is put your hand up and said �he can�t do anything�. Offer solutions.

No, I've asked you for examples of what concrete actions Biden can take and is failing to, and you've come up with nothing so far. Given the refusal of more than half of the states (and a number of subdivisions of otherwise receptive states) to cooperate at all with the federal government on COVID mitigation, what do you propose he do?

edit:

Professor Beetus posted:

Attention VBC and tagesschau: If you're going to keep repeating the same arguments ad nauseum maybe it's time for you both to take a break. It's feeling very circular.

Just saw this.

tagesschau fucked around with this message at 19:19 on Jan 14, 2022

# ? Jan 14, 2022 19:15

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# ? May 25, 2024 06:45

SpartanIvy: May 18, 2007; Hair Elf

virtualboyCOLOR posted:

Hospitals are overwhelmed so we may also see folks die from diarrhea because there aren’t enough beds / resources.

With diarrhea or from diarrhea? :thunk:

# ? Jan 14, 2022 19:17

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

virtualboyCOLOR posted:

Hospitals are overwhelmed so we may also see folks die from diarrhea because there aren�t enough beds / resources.

It's not quite that bad here yet but there are stories of people with cancer basically being sent home to die because their surgery has been indefinitely delayed.

Now, I don't want to bring up the "who deserves to live" debate again, but I think regardless of which direction you go on that, it does society and certainly healthcare workers, a moral injury to have to make that call no matter what the answer is, when it's preventable.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 19:22

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

This is probably bad statistical analysis but anyway. I'm sure somebody can probably improve on it.

Two weeks ago the UK was at 150,000 cases/day, three weeks ago they had 104,000 (7 day average), currently they have 261 deaths/day.

If assume a two week or three week delay is appropriate, and we apply that CFR, then the a country experiencing a million cases a day would expect approximately 1750-2500 deaths/day two-three weeks later. Which is... about where we are now, with our backlog of delta cases.

Would it be wrong to say, in terms of total death rate, short term, that Omicron replacing Delta will be basically a wash?

e: I assume that our CFR will be at least somewhat worse than the UK's because we are less vaccinated (71% vs 63% full, 53% [!!!] vs. 24% boosted). So maybe double that. Which puts us about where we were last winter.

Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 19:30 on Jan 14, 2022

# ? Jan 14, 2022 19:27

Discendo Vox: Mar 21, 2013; We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Mellow Seas posted:

This is probably bad statistical analysis but anyway. I'm sure somebody can probably improve on it.

Two weeks ago the UK was at 150,000 cases/day, three weeks ago they had 104,000 (7 day average), currently they have 261 deaths/day.

If assume a two week or three week delay is appropriate, and we apply that CFR, then the a country experiencing a million cases a day would expect approximately 1750-2500 deaths/day two-three weeks later. Which is... about where we are now, with our backlog of delta cases.

Would it be wrong to say, in terms of total death rate, short term, that Omicron replacing Delta will be basically a wash?

I'd need you to be more specific about the populations and assumptions about death rate. Are you trying to get at the area under the curve for each across full period?

Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 19:33 on Jan 14, 2022

# ? Jan 14, 2022 19:28

NoDamage: Dec 2, 2000

The UK has published an updated report on vaccine effectiveness against Omicron past 10 weeks in people with boosters. Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease falls to 45-50% after 10 weeks.

quote:

The symptomatic disease test negative case control analysis included 236,023 Delta cases and 760,647 Omicron cases. Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease by period after dose 2 and dose 3 is shown in Figure 11 for those who received a primary course of the AstraZeneca vaccine (Figure 11a), Pfizer (Figure 11b) or Moderna (Figure 11c). Effectiveness of booster doses of Pfizer and Moderna are shown. In all periods, effectiveness was lower for Omicron compared to Delta. Among those who had received 2 doses of AstraZeneca, effectiveness dropped from 45 to 50% to almost no effect against Omicron from 20 weeks after the second dose. Among those who had received 2 doses of Pfizer or Moderna effectiveness dropped from around 65 to 70% down to around 10% by 20 weeks after the 2nd dose. Two to 4 weeks after a booster dose vaccine effectiveness ranged from around 65 to 75%, dropping to 55 to 65% at 5 to 9 weeks and 45 to 50% from 10+ weeks after the booster.

Vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization persists for longer, falling to 83% after 10 weeks.

quote:

Results for hospitalisations are shown in Table 2. One dose of vaccine was associated with a 43% reduced risk of hospitalisation among symptomatic cases with the Omicron variant, 2 doses with a 55% reduction up to 24 weeks after the second dose and a 40% reduced risk 25 or more weeks after the second dose, and a third dose was associated with a 74% reduced risk of hospitalisation in the first 2 to 4 weeks after vaccination, dropping slightly to a 66% reduction by 10+ weeks after the booster dose. When combined with vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease this was equivalent to vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation of 58% after one dose, 64% 2 to 24 weeks after 2 doses, 44% 25+ weeks after 2 doses, and 92% dropping to 83% 10+ weeks after a booster dose. Combining the periods for the third dose, overall vaccine effectiveness 2+ weeks after the booster was 89% (95% confidence interval 86 to 91%).

TL;DR: Get your booster if you haven't already.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 19:29

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

Discendo Vox posted:

I'd need you to be more specific about the populations and assumptions about death rate. Are you trying to get at the area under the curve for each across full period?

I just applied the UK death rate, measuring cases-to-deaths at two week and three week lags, to the US, which is wrong for multiple reasons; it's just a matter of how wrong. Chiefly because we have a lot more vulnerable people here.

Somebody did post an estimate of total cases until Omicron burns itself out, it was about 190 million cases under the curve through the end of February. I think the total deaths from Omicron will be in the 250,000-500,000 range. That's a big range, but I think there are people who are confident that it will be much less or much more than that, and that range seems like a decent bet to me.

e: US numbers obviously

# ? Jan 14, 2022 19:33

Discendo Vox: Mar 21, 2013; We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Mellow Seas posted:

I just applied the UK death rate, measuring cases-to-deaths at two week and three week lags, to the US, which is wrong for multiple reasons; it's just a matter of how wrong. Chiefly because we have a lot more vulnerable people here.

Somebody did post an estimate of total cases until Omicron burns itself out, it was about 190 million cases under the curve through the end of February. I think the total deaths from Omicron will be in the 250,000-500,000 range. That's a big range, but I think there are people who are confident that it will be much less or much more than that, and that range seems like a decent bet to me.

I'd struggle to map the full scope of the calculation and "ways of wrongness" to the question; I've got no real basis to tell how accurate that range is, and I'm not comfortable with relying on how it "feels". On some level, though, it may just be that the question seems uninteresting. What information would we gain from the comparison?

# ? Jan 14, 2022 19:36

HisMajestyBOB: Oct 21, 2010; College Slice

SpartanIvy posted:

With diarrhea or from diarrhea?

In diarrhea.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 19:40

CSM: Jan 29, 2014; 56th Motorized Infantry 'Mariupol' Brigade
Seh' die Welt in Trummern liegen

virtualboyCOLOR posted:

Covid is discovered in late 2019�.republicans say to just let it runs its course.

Covid variant is discovered late 2021�Dems say might as well let it run its course.

I guess there is a SLIGHT difference.

Also why does the a �variant� suddenly change the situation? I�ve seen a lot of �well it�s a variant� defense come up from Dem-sphere and it doesn�t make sense to me. Let�s say it�s a brand new pandemic entirely. How does that suddenly mean the Dems should be given a pass for their lack of response vs republicans lack of response in 2020?

The variant changes the situation because it's less severe. A lot of countries also have (triple) vaccinated populations combined with immunity from earlier infections. These reasons make it so the situation requires less drastic measures, even with increased infectiousness.

CSM fucked around with this message at 19:43 on Jan 14, 2022

# ? Jan 14, 2022 19:41

How are u: May 19, 2005; by Azathoth

Fun update: me and my gf's PCR tests came back negative. Whatever really mild thing we've had for the last week and a half seems to not be covid. I'm a little disappointed, to be honest. It's been so mild that I'd have been happy if it were Omi and then I'd be set. Ah well, back to the gym. I'm sure I'll catch it sooner or later.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 19:44

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

Discendo Vox posted:

I'd struggle to map the full scope of the calculation and "ways of wrongness" to the question; I've got no real basis to tell how accurate that range is, and I'm not comfortable with relying on how it "feels". On some level, though, it may just be that the question seems uninteresting. What information would we gain from the comparison?

I think you might be misunderstanding me. The question is "how many people can we expect to die from Omicron infections in the United States", in what respect is that uninteresting or uninformative?

I'm only comparing the US to the UK because the UK has a "mature" Omicron spread that has been killing people for weeks, whereas people in the US are only just now starting to die from it. So I think we can learn something from the UK numbers, no?

I'm not throwing down "250,000-500,000" or "similar overall death rate to Delta" as gauntlets. I won't defend that estimate for a second if somebody has better data or a less half-assed way of analyzing it and comes to a different conclusion.

Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 19:54 on Jan 14, 2022

# ? Jan 14, 2022 19:48

Stickman: Feb 1, 2004

CSM posted:

The variant changes the situation because it's less severe. A lot of countries also have (triple) vaccinated populations combined with immunity from earlier infections. These reasons make it so the situation requires less drastic measures, even with increased infectiousness.

How confident are you of that trade off�

# ? Jan 14, 2022 19:57

LionArcher: Mar 29, 2010

So I want to get this straight. I made a claim that I think the pandemic is showing that a lot of parents probably should not be parents are bad parents, and that they want teachers to be cannon fodder because the parents need the schools (which are also very bad in the first place because it�s based around testing versus learning but that�s a whole other thing)
And a mod said to me, back that up? And when I didn�t in a small time table (3 hours, when I wasn�t on here and actually helping a pregnant friend by talking to them on the phone, dealing with their fears that maybe this wasn�t the best time to have a kid) I was then probed, and not just a sixes, but for a whole rear end day?

For a rule change that I had never heard of, that happened within the last week?

On happier news, the friend has since given birth to a healthy little girl, and they are both back home safe.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 20:00

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Yes, I think it's quite reasonable to demand that you justify the statement that parents struggling to have their children cared for, in the absence of support, are bad or shouldn't have become parents. This is quite literally a situation that has not happened in living memory in most of the world, and while I absolutely agree that it's vile to force teachers and children to be put at risk for concerns of childcare, the responsibility for fixing that lies with the government and not individual parents.

You cannot simply gravely disrupt a major societal institution like public school and expect everything to work itself out, and that's largely what's been done with school closures (which, again, I agree are justified and even necessary in areas of high spread during a pandemic). The failure here is not one of remote learning being awful (that's bullshit)¹ nor of remote learning being bad for mental health (disproven if you look at the data)², but rather that public school as childcare is a structural part of our society, and when we need to disrupt it even for a very, very good reason, we absolutely must deal with the consequences in a sane way.

1: Imamura, E (1987). In Conventional and nonconventional schooling: a comparison of pupil performance in rural schools and schools of the air. University of Western Australia

2: https://twitter.com/tylerblack32/status/1481734046543716356

# ? Jan 14, 2022 20:14

Discendo Vox: Mar 21, 2013; We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Mellow Seas posted:

I think you might be misunderstanding me. The question is "how many people can we expect to die from Omicron infections in the United States", in what respect is that uninteresting or uninformative?

I'm only comparing the US to the UK because the UK has a "mature" Omicron spread that has been killing people for weeks, whereas people in the US are only just now starting to die from it. So I think we can learn something from the UK numbers, no?

I'm not throwing down "250,000-500,000" or "similar overall death rate to Delta" as gauntlets. I won't defend that estimate for a second if somebody has better data or a less half-assed way of analyzing it and comes to a different conclusion.

No gauntlets or offense intended or taken, I'm being straightforward. What does the number of people we expect to die from Omicron infections in the US inform? I don't think it's a useful unless we're getting into variables about the death rate and distinctions that would inform other knowledge. We know the UK rates are pretty lousy comparators, so I'd rather not spend the time/effort to develop something more accurate unless I can see some utility in it. Maybe by comparing other factors that distinguish the US and UK, we can understand how the rates differ.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 20:14

How are u: May 19, 2005; by Azathoth

I remember the School of the Air coming up in a previous thread last year and it turned out that that whole program services like a couple hundred home schooled students and also like the majority of them had a parent as their dedicated teacher. Not quite "one weird trick!" to solve covid schooling issues in the USA.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 20:17

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

How are u posted:

I remember the School of the Air coming up in a previous thread last year and it turned out that that whole program services like a couple hundred home schooled students and also like the majority of them had a parent as their dedicated teacher. Not quite "one weird trick!" to solve covid schooling issues in the USA.

I agree it's not a silver bullet, but it does prove that remote school is not, in and of itself, completely unworkable or inherently bad. A huge issue is a lack of training for teachers, and a lack of resources when it comes to providing remote instruction, which is why quality can vary so widely. This has always been an active area of academic research; the fact that a bunch of schools basically tried to re-invent the wheel in a matter of weeks without looking to established best practices and relevant research in the area is the main problem.

It's also worth noting that the study I cited comes from 1987, and at that point schoolwork was literally flown in and out of remote areas by the RFDS, so as much as you can say "well, they had certain advantages" they also didn't have technology that we've come to regard as completely standard. To a point, though, I think the technology is a double-edged sword, because it makes it really tempting to try to replicate in-person instruction with Zoom or so, and that is simply not a good idea on any level -- remote instruction must be executed in a way that leverages its unique advantages, and minimizes its disadvantages.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 20:23

IT BURNS: Nov 19, 2012

Injecting some levity into this otherwise bleak thread. This is from an email that I just got from HR encouraging employees to get vaccinated. FWIW, I agree with the typo (they sent out an email 30 seconds later correcting it):

IT BURNS fucked around with this message at 20:35 on Jan 14, 2022

# ? Jan 14, 2022 20:30

Koos Group: Mar 6, 2013

LionArcher posted:

So I want to get this straight. I made a claim that I think the pandemic is showing that a lot of parents probably should not be parents are bad parents, and that they want teachers to be cannon fodder because the parents need the schools (which are also very bad in the first place because it�s based around testing versus learning but that�s a whole other thing)
And a mod said to me, back that up? And when I didn�t in a small time table (3 hours, when I wasn�t on here and actually helping a pregnant friend by talking to them on the phone, dealing with their fears that maybe this wasn�t the best time to have a kid) I was then probed, and not just a sixes, but for a whole rear end day?

For a rule change that I had never heard of, that happened within the last week?

On happier news, the friend has since given birth to a healthy little girl, and they are both back home safe.

Yes, generally if one gets probed for not backing something up it should be an argument they've made multiple times, either because it's becoming repetitive or because they'd been previously asked to back it up before, didn't, then made the argument again. That's my fault for not communicating this subtlety to my mods. Good to hear about the baby.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 20:30

Riptor: Apr 13, 2003; here's to feelin' good all the time

IT BURNS posted:

Injecting some levity into this otherwise bleak thread. This is from an email that I just got from HR encouraging employees to get vaccinated. FWIW, I agree with the typo (they sent out an email 30 seconds later correcting it):

GET BOOSTED OR GET BOOTED would rule as a policy

# ? Jan 14, 2022 20:39

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

i got boosted on wednesday and i have slept for almost 24 hours since then and I could go knock out another 8 probably right now, good lord

Riptor posted:

GET BOOSTED OR GET BOOTED would rule as a policy

gonna double down on this and say that anyone who is wilfully anti-vax should have their car booted any time it's spotted out in public

# ? Jan 14, 2022 21:01

Republicans: Oct 14, 2003; - More money for us

- Fuck you

Forget free covid test kits mailed to everyone, I'll settle for being able to buy one in a store for $10. I checked every pharmacy I could find for the better part of 2 hours and all I could find was a two-test kit for loving $70 at a hospital pharmacy.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 21:13

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

An interesting thing I heard today (in the Canadian context, at least) is that mailing COVID tests out would not work because they must be kept from freezing.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 21:20

hekaton: Jan 5, 2022; sure wish i could understand what the hell was going on with my life
so i could be properly upset when things happen

https://twitter.com/DataDrivenMD/status/1482049687519580166

Based on this tweet and the associated link from HHS, it looks like COVID-19 related reporting from hospitals is going to become less reliable come February 2nd.

https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf

There's a handful of reporting categories added related to pediatric medicine, but the bulk of the changes relate to shifting reporting categories to being inactive and no longer need to be reported by the hospitals, including things like :

Critical staffing shortage today (Y/N)
ED/overflow
Previous day�s COVID-19 deaths
All hospital beds

This seems like an attempt to strip reporting down and make it harder for the impact of Omicron to be measured? I don't think its a bad idea to improve the level of granularity for pediatric care, but there's a lot related to overall deaths and shortages that seems to be getting swept under the rug in this reporting update. I also understand that other levels of reporting requirements, like state governments, will override this, but the lack of a unified system of information will be harmful to overall attempts at understanding.

Also this department, HHS, is part of the administration right? So its not got the same separation between the president and the advising organization that you have with the CDC?

# ? Jan 14, 2022 21:34

Professor Beetus: Apr 12, 2007; They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

LionArcher posted:

So I want to get this straight. I made a claim that I think the pandemic is showing that a lot of parents probably should not be parents are bad parents, and that they want teachers to be cannon fodder because the parents need the schools (which are also very bad in the first place because it�s based around testing versus learning but that�s a whole other thing)

So do you have some evidence you'd like to provide that the majority of Americans who cannot afford childcare or to be a one income family are bad parents who shouldn't have had kids in the first place? Or are you going to keep doubling down on what you think are self-evidentiary facts?

PT6A posted:

Yes, I think it's quite reasonable to demand that you justify the statement that parents struggling to have their children cared for, in the absence of support, are bad or shouldn't have become parents. This is quite literally a situation that has not happened in living memory in most of the world, and while I absolutely agree that it's vile to force teachers and children to be put at risk for concerns of childcare, the responsibility for fixing that lies with the government and not individual parents.

You cannot simply gravely disrupt a major societal institution like public school and expect everything to work itself out, and that's largely what's been done with school closures (which, again, I agree are justified and even necessary in areas of high spread during a pandemic). The failure here is not one of remote learning being awful (that's bullshit)¹ nor of remote learning being bad for mental health (disproven if you look at the data)², but rather that public school as childcare is a structural part of our society, and when we need to disrupt it even for a very, very good reason, we absolutely must deal with the consequences in a sane way.

1: Imamura, E (1987). In Conventional and nonconventional schooling: a comparison of pupil performance in rural schools and schools of the air. University of Western Australia

2: https://twitter.com/tylerblack32/status/1481734046543716356

Perhaps you'd like to start by looking at a post from someone who actually made some effort to address you.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 21:35

James Garfield: May 5, 2012; Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

Mellow Seas posted:

I just applied the UK death rate, measuring cases-to-deaths at two week and three week lags, to the US, which is wrong for multiple reasons; it's just a matter of how wrong. Chiefly because we have a lot more vulnerable people here.

Somebody did post an estimate of total cases until Omicron burns itself out, it was about 190 million cases under the curve through the end of February. I think the total deaths from Omicron will be in the 250,000-500,000 range. That's a big range, but I think there are people who are confident that it will be much less or much more than that, and that range seems like a decent bet to me.

e: US numbers obviously

This is an estimate of total infections right, not cases (I think total infections are expected to be ~10x cases in this wave; obviously there will not be over a billion infections in the US)?

You wouldn't want to apply the case fatality rate to an estimated number of infections since the infections with no test are probably much less severe on average.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 21:42

Discendo Vox: Mar 21, 2013; We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

hekaton posted:

Also this department, HHS, is part of the administration right? So its not got the same separation between the president and the advising organization that you have with the CDC?

I can't speak to the rest of this without more research, but NIH and CDC are both part of HHS. HHS is the umbrella entity; its leadership is more directly appointed and there's going to be more direct white house influence, but there will still be civil service staff there past the top ranks. One way to think of this is that Congress semi-routinely changes the structure of NIH with bills; HHS is more likely to have programs or task forces or teams (meaningful or useless) directly created by executive order. Congress still controls a lot of HHS's structure, and it's still ultimately supposed to be executing powers provided by congress.

Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 21:48 on Jan 14, 2022

# ? Jan 14, 2022 21:46

Wang Commander: Dec 27, 2003; by sebmojo

I am glad Omicron turned out to be somewhat more mild so far but I also feel like I'm taking crazy pills given how many people think this will end the pandemic or just be the way things are now. Omicron isn't some final form of covid that locked into compromising severity for infectiousness, it's a likely zoonosis that hasn't even begun to specialize particularly for human hosts, just like wild type. I feel like I'm sitting here waiting for the next Delta

# ? Jan 14, 2022 21:56

Barry Foster: Dec 24, 2007; What is going wrong with that one (face is longer than it should be)

Wang Commander posted:

I am glad Omicron turned out to be somewhat more mild so far but I also feel like I'm taking crazy pills given how many people think this will end the pandemic or just be the way things are now. Omicron isn't some final form of covid that locked into compromising severity for infectiousness, it's a likely zoonosis that hasn't even begun to specialize particularly for human hosts, just like wild type. I feel like I'm sitting here waiting for the next Delta

I feel the same way.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 22:00

MooselanderII: Feb 18, 2004

hekaton posted:

https://twitter.com/DataDrivenMD/status/1482049687519580166

Based on this tweet and the associated link from HHS, it looks like COVID-19 related reporting from hospitals is going to become less reliable come February 2nd.

https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf

There's a handful of reporting categories added related to pediatric medicine, but the bulk of the changes relate to shifting reporting categories to being inactive and no longer need to be reported by the hospitals, including things like :

Critical staffing shortage today (Y/N)
ED/overflow
Previous day�s COVID-19 deaths
All hospital beds

This seems like an attempt to strip reporting down and make it harder for the impact of Omicron to be measured? I don't think its a bad idea to improve the level of granularity for pediatric care, but there's a lot related to overall deaths and shortages that seems to be getting swept under the rug in this reporting update. I also understand that other levels of reporting requirements, like state governments, will override this, but the lack of a unified system of information will be harmful to overall attempts at understanding.

Also this department, HHS, is part of the administration right? So its not got the same separation between the president and the advising organization that you have with the CDC?

This seems pretty insane to do. Didn't the Trump administration also mess around with certain reporting functions to downplay the severity? I know it wasn't the same requirement as this, but what purpose can this possibly serve other than to obfuscate the severity of the current wave?

# ? Jan 14, 2022 22:11

Oracle: Oct 9, 2004

MooselanderII posted:

This seems pretty insane to do. Didn't the Trump administration also mess around with certain reporting functions to downplay the severity? I know it wasn't the same requirement as this, but what purpose can this possibly serve other than to obfuscate the severity of the current wave?

I think the idea (excuse?) was to take some load off already overstressed hospital systems.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 22:18

Discendo Vox: Mar 21, 2013; We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Oracle posted:

I think the idea (excuse?) was to take some load off already overstressed hospital systems.

The tweet author believes that it's preparatory to instead implement combined reporting measures for all respiratory virals (corona, flu, etc), as it was one of the recommendations in the Ezekiel Emmanuel editorial discussed earlier. This would explain the simultaneous removal of parallel flu data elements.

edit: later in the tweet thread he acknowledges the deaths are reported by health departments already, but they're on a longer delay.

Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 22:26 on Jan 14, 2022

# ? Jan 14, 2022 22:21

Goatse James Bond: Mar 28, 2010; If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

I'm generally in favor of more robust data collection so I'd rather that pdf only added reporting, never reduced it.

The only thing I can think of off the top of my head re covid deaths - which let's be real, twitter cares about more than the entire rest of the document combined - is that a hospital determining the difference between "with covid" and "from covid" is a hassle and degrades the quality of the data... but I feel like the correct response then is "make the data collection better", not "stop collecting the data". Obviously this is just a random data goon talking out his rear end, I'd like to hear more from HHS about the whole document.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 22:23

Goatse James Bond: Mar 28, 2010; If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Discendo Vox posted:

The tweet author believes that it's preparatory to instead implement combined reporting measures for all respiratory virals (corona, flu, etc), as it was one of the recommendations in the Ezekiel Emmanuel editorial discussed earlier. This would explain the simultaneous removal of parallel flu data elements.

I did notice the flu thing, that would make sense.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 22:24

KittyEmpress: Dec 30, 2012; Jam Buddies

Last few days have sucked. Tested positive for covid. Everything hurts body wise, fever has me sweaty and also somehow frozen, and my throat is on fire. That obviously sucks right?

Well I also recently moved to a new company and was still in my probationary period. Boss called me up to tell me I could either come in with covid or I'd be fired.

I just stayed home, because ultimately 18 dollars an hour is not worth working under those conditions, for a boss like that. But now I'm trying to job search while also sick, lol.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 22:24

How are u: May 19, 2005; by Azathoth

KittyEmpress posted:

Last few days have sucked. Tested positive for covid. Everything hurts body wise, fever has me sweaty and also somehow frozen, and my throat is on fire. That obviously sucks right?

Well I also recently moved to a new company and was still in my probationary period. Boss called me up to tell me I could either come in with covid or I'd be fired.

I just stayed home, because ultimately 18 dollars an hour is not worth working under those conditions, for a boss like that. But now I'm trying to job search while also sick, lol.

That is wild, sorry to hear. What type of company, if you don't mind sharing?

# ? Jan 14, 2022 22:28

MooselanderII: Feb 18, 2004

GreyjoyBastard posted:

I did notice the flu thing, that would make sense.

I don't know, I don't think just classifying all respiratory infection deaths in a broader category while not breaking them down per virus in the middle of the current surge doesn't do anyone much good, other than delay/obfuscate the real time reporting of this data. It seems like a bad call and not one that helps anyone.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 22:34

Stickman: Feb 1, 2004

Discendo Vox posted:

The tweet author believes that it's preparatory to instead implement combined reporting measures for all respiratory virals (corona, flu, etc), as it was one of the recommendations in the Ezekiel Emmanuel editorial discussed earlier. This would explain the simultaneous removal of parallel flu data elements.

edit: later in the tweet thread he acknowledges the deaths are reported by health departments already, but they're on a longer delay.

Removing elements "in preparation" for future implementation of combined reporting measures doesn't seem like a great way to implement a reporting shift.

E: If by "combined reporting" you mean not reporting flu/covid/etc. separately, then that's a terrible idea all the way around. Makes both flu and covid tracking from reportable data impossible.

Stickman fucked around with this message at 22:39 on Jan 14, 2022

# ? Jan 14, 2022 22:37

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# ? May 25, 2024 06:45

Willa Rogers: Mar 11, 2005

The AP is reporting that the government website to order free tests will go live on Wednesday:

quote:

WASHINGTON (AP) � Under criticism after weeks of shortages, President Joe Biden�s administration is working to make COVID-19 rapid test kits more available and accessible to Americans by boosting supply and lowering costs. A new federal website to request free test kits launches Wednesday, with the first shipments going out to Americans by the end of the month. In addition, most Americans will be able to get reimbursed for tests that they purchase starting Saturday.

Key details about the new programs:

HOW CAN I REQUEST A FREE TEST?

Starting Wednesday, Jan. 19, free tests can be ordered at covidtests.gov. The first tests will ship by the end of January. The White House says �tests will typically ship within 7-12 days of ordering� through the U.S. Postal Service. USPS reports shipping times of 1-3 days for its first-class package service in the continental United States. Shipments to Alaska, Hawaii, Army Post Office (APO), Fleet Post Office (FPO) and Diplomatic Post Office (DPO) addresses will be sent through Priority Mail.

Importantly, given the shipping and process times, Americans will need to request the tests well before they meet federal guidelines for requiring a test.

WHEN SHOULD I TEST?

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends at-home testing when people experience COVID-19 systems including fever, cough, sore throat, respiratory symptoms and muscle aches; five days after a potential COVID-19 exposure; or as part of test-to-stay protocols in schools and workplaces.

HOW MANY TESTS CAN I ORDER FROM THE WEBSITE?

The White House says that �to promote broad access,� shipments from covidtests.gov will initially be limited to four rapid tests per residential address, no matter the number of occupants.

IS THERE ANOTHER WAY TO GET A TEST KIT FOR FREE?

Starting Saturday, private insurers will be required to cover the cost of up to eight at-home rapid tests per month per insured person, according to a new Biden administration rule.

People will have the option of buying tests at a store or online, then seeking reimbursement from their health insurance provider. Insurers are being incentivized to work with pharmacies and retailers to develop plans to cover the cost of the tests with no out-of-pocket cost to customers, but those programs will not be immediately widespread.

Those with public health insurance through Medicare, or without insurance, will be directed to covidtests.gov to order tests or to community health centers in their area offering free testing.

HOW WILL I BE REIMBURSED?

The Biden administration says the procedures will differ from insurer to insurer, and it is encouraging Americans to save receipts from rapid test purchases for later reimbursement and to reach out to their insurance providers for information.

Critically, the requirement only covers purchases on or after Saturday. Insurers are not expected to retroactively reimburse the cost of tests purchased earlier.

WHAT ARE OTHER TESTING OPTIONS?

The Biden administration is emphasizing that the website is just one tool for Americans to access COVID-19 testing. Millions of free tests are available at participating pharmacy locations, community health centers and Federal Emergency Management Agency-backed sites in some parts of the country experiencing a surge in cases.

WHICH HOME TEST WILL I GET?

That will vary. The federal government has secured more than 420 million tests for distribution through covidtests.gov already, with plans to increase the order to 1 billion tests in the coming weeks. All of the tests supplied will be authorized by the Food and Drug Administration and are capable of detecting the more-transmissible omicron variant of COVID-19, which is the dominant strain in the U.S. While they are packaged differently and may use slightly different procedures, officials said, the test mechanisms of detection and effectiveness are generally the same. All tests will come with detailed instructions.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 22:38

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > COVID-19: People on the internet are judging me for going outside. It used to be the reverse.

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