COVID-19: People on the internet are judging me for going outside. It used to be the reverse.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > COVID-19: People on the internet are judging me for going outside. It used to be the reverse.

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KittyEmpress: Dec 30, 2012; Jam Buddies

How are u posted:

That is wild, sorry to hear. What type of company, if you don't mind sharing?

It was a warehouse job where we ship out automotive parts to dealerships, basically. Some other parts too, I know we handled some stuff for like, washers and dryers too, but they were a very minority of it.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 23:06

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# ? May 23, 2024 06:23

Wang Commander: Dec 27, 2003; by sebmojo

https://twitter.com/fitterhappierAJ/status/1481683717785624577?t=sobFZZVnEb-u4udBJFjLYw&s=19

How does this not end up as being like AIDS if it does the exact same thing? I'm kind of confused why more people aren't freaking out over this.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 23:17

Tiny Timbs: Sep 6, 2008

God you have the absolute worst takes on tweets

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? Jan 14, 2022 23:22

I AM GRANDO: Aug 20, 2006

Can someone with content-area knowledge please interpret that tweet about t-cells?

# ? Jan 14, 2022 23:25

Riptor: Apr 13, 2003; here's to feelin' good all the time

Wang Commander posted:

I'm kind of confused why more people aren't freaking out over this.

Perhaps it is because they are more knowledgeable than you are, rather than you having some unique insight into the situation

# ? Jan 14, 2022 23:26

nomad2020: Jan 30, 2007

Wang Commander posted:

https://twitter.com/fitterhappierAJ/status/1481683717785624577?t=sobFZZVnEb-u4udBJFjLYw&s=19

How does this not end up as being like AIDS if it does the exact same thing? I'm kind of confused why more people aren't freaking out over this.

It's because nobody in the room is qualified to talk about T-cells, but are afraid to admit it. Instead we sit here and place our previously founded expectations onto these T-cells and you get the gradient we see here, from "panic" to "yea, that's totally not a thing dude". But smarmier.

E: less afraid than I had assumed.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 23:27

Wang Commander: Dec 27, 2003; by sebmojo

I AM GRANDO posted:

Can someone with content-area knowledge please interpret that tweet about t-cells?

I mean Leonardi is a t cell guy interpreting a t cell paper. But he's also talking about airborne aids and extinction events while flying to vacation in Spain.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 23:29

Oracle: Oct 9, 2004

Wang Commander posted:

https://twitter.com/fitterhappierAJ/status/1481683717785624577?t=sobFZZVnEb-u4udBJFjLYw&s=19

How does this not end up as being like AIDS if it does the exact same thing? I'm kind of confused why more people aren't freaking out over this.

Because noone understands it. He put it in layman's terms in a later tweet:

quote:

Covid causes more T cell death than HIV. In HIV it leads to a progressively weak immune system (AIDS).
AJ's tweet from 2020 asserts that Covid makes herd immunity impossible because it kills the immune cells responsible for adaptive immunity & safe regulation of T cell death.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 23:31

UnoriginalMind: Dec 22, 2007; I Love You

Wang Commander posted:

I mean Leonardi is a t cell guy interpreting a t cell paper. But he's also talking about airborne aids and extinction events while flying to vacation in Spain.

Have you considered getting a 31st booster to ease your woes?

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? Jan 14, 2022 23:48

Haramstufe Rot: Jun 24, 2016

cool, very cool

# ? Jan 14, 2022 23:53

James Garfield: May 5, 2012; Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

For no particular reason, here's the abstract of the preprint that guy is quoting as "more T cell loss than HIV":

quote:

SARS-CoV-2 and HIV-1 are RNA viruses that have killed millions of people worldwide. Understanding the similarities and differences between these two infections is critical for understanding disease progression and for developing effective vaccines and therapies, particularly for 38 million HIV-1+ individuals who are vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2 co-infection. Here, we utilized single-cell transcriptomics to perform a systematic comparison of 94,442 PBMCs from 7 COVID-19 and 9 HIV-1+ patients in an integrated immune atlas, in which 27 different cell types were identified using an accurate consensus single-cell annotation method. While immune cells in both cohorts show shared inflammation and disrupted mitochondrial function, COVID-19 patients exhibit stronger humoral immunity, broader IFN-I signaling, elevated Rho GTPase and mTOR pathway activities, and downregulated mitophagy. Our results elucidate transcriptional signatures associated with COVID-19 and HIV-1 that may reveal insights into fundamental disease biology and potential therapeutic targets to treat these viral infections.

# ? Jan 15, 2022 00:01

CSM: Jan 29, 2014; 56th Motorized Infantry 'Mariupol' Brigade
Seh' die Welt in Trummern liegen

Wang Commander posted:

I am glad Omicron turned out to be somewhat more mild so far but I also feel like I'm taking crazy pills given how many people think this will end the pandemic or just be the way things are now. Omicron isn't some final form of covid that locked into compromising severity for infectiousness, it's a likely zoonosis that hasn't even begun to specialize particularly for human hosts, just like wild type. I feel like I'm sitting here waiting for the next Delta

Maybe you should take a break from doom scrolling if you're actively waiting for bad news and ignoring the good?

# ? Jan 15, 2022 00:11

Haramstufe Rot: Jun 24, 2016

CSM posted:

Maybe you should take a break from doom scrolling if you're actively waiting for bad news and ignoring the good?

if he does scroll, he'll see we now have airborne AIDS

# ? Jan 15, 2022 00:24

mediaphage: Mar 22, 2007; Excuse me, pardon me, sheer perfection coming through

Wang Commander posted:

I am glad Omicron turned out to be somewhat more mild so far but I also feel like I'm taking crazy pills given how many people think this will end the pandemic or just be the way things are now. Omicron isn't some final form of covid that locked into compromising severity for infectiousness, it's a likely zoonosis that hasn't even begun to specialize particularly for human hosts, just like wild type. I feel like I'm sitting here waiting for the next Delta

this is not necessarily true. there is a lot of mouse similarity for example but it could just as easily have arisen from a chronic infection in someone who is immunocompromised with hiv/aids

# ? Jan 15, 2022 00:24

lobotomy molo: May 7, 2007; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

virtualboyCOLOR posted:

https://twitter.com/arstechnica/status/1481034947506982914?s=20

https://twitter.com/CarlosdelRio7/status/1481670762658504705?s=20

Get your 2020 Republican talking points over here. They may be old and you may remember them as being too spicy but we�ve repackaged them to go down smoothly for all you liberal and democrats out there.

Get your 2020 Republican talking points, only costs your dignity�

Let�s see:
20x more likely to die if unvaccinated
Omicron doubles every 2 days. Let�s say 3 to be conservative.
You�d need 4.3 doublings to account for a 20x difference

So the difference in deaths between Omicron hitting a 100% vaccinated population and a 100% unvaccinated population is approximately 12.9 days of unchecked uncontrolled exponential growth.

Today�s the 14th. If we had a 100% vaccinated population, we�d have the same number of deaths if we locked down now vs. 100% unvaccinated population and locked down hard on the 1st.

And no lockdowns are coming. Ever again. :psyboom:

# ? Jan 15, 2022 00:25

Jaxyon: Mar 7, 2016; I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

Fly Molo posted:

And no lockdowns are coming. Ever again.

Hey at least there's no question any more as to what's more important, your life or capital.

Also any movie where people isolate to prevent disease spread just got obsoleted by reality.

# ? Jan 15, 2022 00:28

Discendo Vox: Mar 21, 2013; We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

You appear to be assuming linear and unconstrained doubling across all areas and populations.

# ? Jan 15, 2022 00:29

Wang Commander: Dec 27, 2003; by sebmojo

CSM posted:

Maybe you should take a break from doom scrolling if you're actively waiting for bad news and ignoring the good?

I don't need to doom scroll to feel this way, just looking at the mutations on Omicron spike once then seeing it spread like crazy was enough.

# ? Jan 15, 2022 00:36

James Garfield: May 5, 2012; Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

Fly Molo posted:

Let�s see:
20x more likely to die if unvaccinated
Omicron doubles every 2 days. Let�s say 3 to be conservative.
You�d need 4.3 doublings to account for a 20x difference

So the difference in deaths between Omicron hitting a 100% vaccinated population and a 100% unvaccinated population is approximately 12.9 days of unchecked uncontrolled exponential growth.

Today�s the 14th. If we had a 100% vaccinated population, we�d have the same number of deaths if we locked down now vs. 100% unvaccinated population and locked down hard on the 1st.

And no lockdowns are coming. Ever again.

The same analysis applied to the first wave of covid would suggest that it killed the entire US population by fall 2020.

# ? Jan 15, 2022 00:49

lobotomy molo: May 7, 2007; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Jaxyon posted:

Hey at least there's no question any more as to what's more important, your life or capital.

Also any movie where people isolate to prevent disease spread just got obsoleted by reality.

Yeah, unfortunately. It�s just sad seeing the deaths being downplayed (ie. HHS not requiring death reporting starting in February). By the numbers Fauci presented there, my odds of dying are roughly equivalent if I�m unvaccinated and there�s 50,000 cases per day, or if I�m fully vaccinated and there�s the current 1,000,000ish cases per day. A 20x reduction in deaths isn�t very comforting when the case numbers are skyrocketing like this.

# ? Jan 15, 2022 01:01

haveblue: Aug 15, 2005; Toilet Rascal

I can�t wait until 2023, when omicron will be killing trillions of people every day

# ? Jan 15, 2022 01:43

Alctel: Jan 16, 2004; I love snails

Fly Molo posted:

Yeah, unfortunately. It�s just sad seeing the deaths being downplayed (ie. HHS not requiring death reporting starting in February). By the numbers Fauci presented there, my odds of dying are roughly equivalent if I�m unvaccinated and there�s 50,000 cases per day, or if I�m fully vaccinated and there�s the current 1,000,000ish cases per day. A 20x reduction in deaths isn�t very comforting when the case numbers are skyrocketing like this.

That's not how it works, your chances of dying don't go up the more cases there are.

# ? Jan 15, 2022 01:53

MooselanderII: Feb 18, 2004

Alctel posted:

That's not how it works, your chances of dying don't go up the more cases there are.

What? Sure, your risk from the disease don't increase if you catch it, but you are more likely to catch it the more there is circulating? How is that not "your chances of dying" going up the more cases there are?

# ? Jan 15, 2022 02:01

lobotomy molo: May 7, 2007; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

^^^Yes, that�s what I meant- if there�s 20x more infections in my community, that means I�ve got 20x more chances to catch it. Not great!

haveblue posted:

I can�t wait until 2023, when omicron will be killing trillions of people every day

Well, it�s gonna be interesting (read: awful) to see how bad this gets. Waves break when they:
1. infect enough vulnerable people to hit the reinfection cooldown before the next wave as immunity fades.
2. are stopped by government policy changes (lockdowns, respirators).
3. enough people change their behavior.

The lack of effective government action (lockdowns, respirators) means #2 is out. The last month and a half of �it�s mild!� irresponsible reporting means #3 will be less effective. The US is essentially just letting it rip until Omicron hits the limits of #1, which could be very high with how infectious Omicron is.

Checking some rough numbers, if it hits only ~30% of the US population over the next year (which could be low- it�s currently infecting 1% every 3 days) before it hits the limits of #1, that�s what, around a million dead over the next year? Assuming the healthcare system doesn�t completely collapse, which could significantly increase the fatality rate.

I hope the feds prioritize mass distribution of respirators and the pharma companies prioritize an omicron booster, otherwise we could be in trouble. We�re already hitting all time highs in hospitalizations, and which is sure to result in a lot of deaths.

lobotomy molo fucked around with this message at 02:05 on Jan 15, 2022

# ? Jan 15, 2022 02:02

Mischievous Mink: May 29, 2012

Alctel posted:

That's not how it works, your chances of dying don't go up the more cases there are.

The more full hospitals are, the more your chances of dying if you need to go to one goes up, though.

# ? Jan 15, 2022 02:04

Alctel: Jan 16, 2004; I love snails

MooselanderII posted:

What? Sure, your risk from the disease don't increase if you catch it, but you are more likely to catch it the more there is circulating? How is that not "your chances of dying" going up the more cases there are?

Sure, but you can't just say 'well cases are 20x higher so I have 20x the chance of dying!'

Statistics don't work like that

# ? Jan 15, 2022 02:09

nexous: Jan 14, 2003; I just want to be pure

Alctel posted:

Sure, but you can't just say 'well cases are 20x higher so I have 20x the chance of dying!'

Statistics don't work like that

If you play Russian roulette you have a 1/6 chance of dying. If all of a sudden you are playing Russian roulette 20x more, your chances of dying from a single game remains the same, but your chance of dying to Russian roulette absolutely, unequivocally goes up.

More cases means a higher chance of death.

# ? Jan 15, 2022 02:22

Youth Decay: Aug 18, 2015

Wang Commander posted:

https://twitter.com/fitterhappierAJ/status/1481683717785624577?t=sobFZZVnEb-u4udBJFjLYw&s=19

How does this not end up as being like AIDS if it does the exact same thing? I'm kind of confused why more people aren't freaking out over this.

Read the study, not the tweet.

the study itself posted:

While immune cells in both cohorts show shared inflammation and disrupted mitochondrial function, COVID-19 patients exhibit stronger humoral immunity, broader IFN-I signaling, elevated Rho GTPase and mTOR pathway activities, and downregulated mitophagy.

In other words: HIV and COVID-19 share a few similarities in how they affect immune response, but HIV impacts several other functions more severely. Those other functions also play a role in herd immunity and taken together allow the body to fight off the virus far more vigorously. You will notice that people are seen to recover from COVID-19, meaning their body has eliminated the viral particles, whereas people remain seropositive for HIV long after their initial acute infection.

Wang Commander posted:

I don't need to doom scroll to feel this way, just looking at the mutations on Omicron spike once then seeing it spread like crazy was enough.

Obviously new variants are a concern but bear in mind that while there are many ways a virus can theoretically mutate, only a handful of those are actually viable. For example some mutations that increase viral replication or the ability of a virus to invade a cell may make a virus more "visible" to the immune system and actually hurt the virus's chance at spreading. There are a number of selection pressures involved. I am a pharmaceutical immunochemistry lab paper-pusher, not an epidemiologist, but I would recommend against extrapolating from the sheer number of mutations as to how future variants will become worse. Especially if you are not familiar with what each of those mutations actually does.

Fly Molo posted:

Let�s see:
20x more likely to die if unvaccinated
Omicron doubles every 2 days. Let�s say 3 to be conservative.
You�d need 4.3 doublings to account for a 20x difference

So the difference in deaths between Omicron hitting a 100% vaccinated population and a 100% unvaccinated population is approximately 12.9 days of unchecked uncontrolled exponential growth.

Today�s the 14th. If we had a 100% vaccinated population, we�d have the same number of deaths if we locked down now vs. 100% unvaccinated population and locked down hard on the 1st.

And no lockdowns are coming. Ever again.

Disease outbreaks occur on a curve. Rhe rate of spread, ratio of symptomatic vs asymptomatic, hospitalization rate, infection duration, risk of death, etc vary wildly among populations and across time so you can't just put an exponential doubling rate on the whole thing. A person with COVID is infectious for anywhere from a few days to a month, and their rate of shedding the virus varies over this time. Bottom line, we shouldn't just lie down and accept an uncontrolled outbreak but we shouldn't assume the thing is going to explode to infinity infections.

# ? Jan 15, 2022 02:24

Alctel: Jan 16, 2004; I love snails

nexous posted:

If you play Russian roulette you have a 1/6 chance of dying. If all of a sudden you are playing Russian roulette 20x more, your chances of dying from a single game remains the same, but your chance of dying to Russian roulette absolutely, unequivocally goes up.

More cases means a higher chance of death.

That's a false analogy though, as in that case it absolutely would be 20 times the chance of dying - there is a fixed 1 in 6 chance of dying, and you are playing 20 times.

For covid you can't just be like 'oh this 20x cases more a day means I have 20x the chance of getting it which means I have 20x the chance of dying'

You may have 20x the chance of catching it (though I'd debate this too) but that doesn't translate to a 20x chance of death.

# ? Jan 15, 2022 02:32

Jaxyon: Mar 7, 2016; I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

I feel like there's already enough awful worrying poo poo about the current state of Omicron(ie massive levels of infection, medical systems teetering on collapse) that reading a tweet and questioning why everyone doesn't freak out that we're at Respiratory AIDS is probably not needed.

# ? Jan 15, 2022 02:35

lobotomy molo: May 7, 2007; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Youth Decay posted:

Read the study, not the tweet.

In other words: HIV and COVID-19 share a few similarities in how they affect immune response, but HIV impacts several other functions more severely. Those other functions also play a role in herd immunity and taken together allow the body to fight off the virus far more vigorously. You will notice that people are seen to recover from COVID-19, meaning their body has eliminated the viral particles, whereas people remain seropositive for HIV long after their initial acute infection.

Obviously new variants are a concern but bear in mind that while there are many ways a virus can theoretically mutate, only a handful of those are actually viable. For example some mutations that increase viral replication or the ability of a virus to invade a cell may make a virus more "visible" to the immune system and actually hurt the virus's chance at spreading. There are a number of selection pressures involved. I am a pharmaceutical immunochemistry lab paper-pusher, not an epidemiologist, but I would recommend against extrapolating from the sheer number of mutations as to how future variants will become worse. Especially if you are not familiar with what each of those mutations actually does.

Disease outbreaks occur on a curve. Rhe rate of spread, ratio of symptomatic vs asymptomatic, hospitalization rate, infection duration, risk of death, etc vary wildly among populations and across time so you can't just put an exponential doubling rate on the whole thing. A person with COVID is infectious for anywhere from a few days to a month, and their rate of shedding the virus varies over this time. Bottom line, we shouldn't just lie down and accept an uncontrolled outbreak but we shouldn't assume the thing is going to explode to infinity infections.

I never said it would continue exponentially to infinity. However, focusing so much of our national covid response on �get vaccinated� instead of NPIs (close schools, shut down non-essential travel, pay people to stay home) seems ridiculous with these case numbers. A bit like wearing a bulletproof vest then deliberately standing in a hail of gunfire.

Does the vest reduce the chances of dying? Yes, absolutely. Would it be better to implement the strongest possible NPIs (such as ordering emergency closure of all in-person restaurants and in-person schooling) instead of just standing there as more and more guns start firing? Certainly. The sooner we stop playing Russian roulette the better off we�ll be. Let the courts strike it down a month from now, actions like that could start saving lives the moment they�re implemented.

# ? Jan 15, 2022 02:38

Riptor: Apr 13, 2003; here's to feelin' good all the time

Youth Decay posted:

Person who knows what they're talking about

Genuinely, thank you for this post

# ? Jan 15, 2022 02:38

nexous: Jan 14, 2003; I just want to be pure

Alctel posted:

That's a false analogy though, as in that case it absolutely would be 20 times the chance of dying - there is a fixed 1 in 6 chance of dying, and you are playing 20 times.

For covid you can't just be like 'oh this 20x cases more a day means I have 20x the chance of getting it which means I have 20x the chance of dying'

You may have 20x the chance of catching it (though I'd debate this too) but that doesn't translate to a 20x chance of death.

You have a fixed chance of dying to Covid. Whether it be the 1% IFR for unvaxxed or the significantly lower chance if you�re vaxxed. But let�s just say 1% for ease of math.

So let�s say I have a 1% chance of getting Covid in any given month. And 1% chance to die if I get it. That equals a .01% chance of dying to Covid in a given month.

And you just literally admitted you have a 20x chance of getting it (okay again not a linear relationship, but significantly higher). So now I have a 20% chance of getting Covid in said month, with still a 1% chance of dying if I get it. Now my chance of dying to Covid is .2% in that month, 20x higher.

You are arguing it is not a 400x increase, which I agree with.

# ? Jan 15, 2022 02:44

James Garfield: May 5, 2012; Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

Fly Molo posted:

I never said it would continue exponentially to infinity. However, focusing so much of our national covid response on �get vaccinated� instead of NPIs (close schools, shut down non-essential travel, pay people to stay home) seems ridiculous with these case numbers. A bit like wearing a bulletproof vest then deliberately standing in a hail of gunfire.

Does the vest reduce the chances of dying? Yes, absolutely. Would it be better to implement the strongest possible NPIs (such as ordering emergency closure of all in-person restaurants and in-person schooling) instead of just standing there as more and more guns start firing? Certainly. The sooner we stop playing Russian roulette the better off we�ll be. Let the courts strike it down a month from now, actions like that could start saving lives the moment they�re implemented.

Vaccines are being prioritized over school closures (of all things) because they're far more effective at improving covid outcomes and have no harmful side effects. It's not a mystery.

# ? Jan 15, 2022 02:51

Henrik Zetterberg: Dec 7, 2007

Oh neat, Biden is giving my family of 7 four free tests. Thank you so very much.

# ? Jan 15, 2022 03:00

Jaxyon: Mar 7, 2016; I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

James Garfield posted:

Vaccines are being prioritized over school closures (of all things) because they're far more effective at improving covid outcomes and have no harmful side effects. It's not a mystery.

I'm fully vaxxed but so are a bunch of people who caught covid that I know.

I'd actually argue that for omicron NPIs are more possibly more effective at improving covid outcomes than vaccines, even though vaccines are extremely awesome.

# ? Jan 15, 2022 03:04

StratGoatCom: Aug 6, 2019; Our security is guaranteed by being able to melt the eyeballs of any other forum's denizens at 15 minutes notice

James Garfield posted:

Vaccines are being prioritized over school closures (of all things) because they're far more effective at improving covid outcomes and have no harmful side effects. It's not a mystery.

You know what's better then a vaccine?

Not getting it in the first place, not only for you, but for anyone who you might pass it to, and to avoid giving it more chances to mutate.

# ? Jan 15, 2022 03:10

Gripweed: Nov 8, 2018

James Garfield posted:

Vaccines are being prioritized over school closures (of all things) because they're far more effective at improving covid outcomes and have no harmful side effects. It's not a mystery.

I don't think it's fair to say that vaccines are being prioritized over school closures when school closures aren't a priority at all. It's the opposite actually, school opening seem to be prioritized over vaccines. Despite the fact that schools spread Covid, many schools don't have enough teachers because the teachers are getting Covid, and school closures significantly reduce the rate of child suicide.

# ? Jan 15, 2022 03:12

OddObserver: Apr 3, 2009

Alctel posted:

That's a false analogy though, as in that case it absolutely would be 20 times the chance of dying - there is a fixed 1 in 6 chance of dying, and you are playing 20 times.

Nope, actually, the math doesn't work like that. For one, that would suggest you would have a 20/6 chance of dying, which would be > 1, which is a clue your computation is nonsense.
Your change of dying from 20 rounds of Russian roulette (assuming random cylinder rotation) are
1 - (5/6)^20 which is about 97.4%.

... but it's completely irrelevant for illnesses because immune system is a thing, and even beyond that your chances probably aren't independent.
(Most independence assumptions are dubious, and can cause nonsense conclusions, like, say, causing a financial collapse by assuming that foreclosure risks are independent).

# ? Jan 15, 2022 03:34

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# ? May 23, 2024 06:23

Jaxyon: Mar 7, 2016; I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

Gripweed posted:

I don't think it's fair to say that vaccines are being prioritized over school closures when school closures aren't a priority at all. It's the opposite actually, school opening seem to be prioritized over vaccines. Despite the fact that schools spread Covid, many schools don't have enough teachers because the teachers are getting Covid, and school closures significantly reduce the rate of child suicide.

I mean they're being prioritized over school closures, in that vaccines are a thing that's actually being done on a widespread basis.

In that sense, almost anything is being prioritized over school closures because they mostly aren't getting closed.

# ? Jan 15, 2022 03:36

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > COVID-19: People on the internet are judging me for going outside. It used to be the reverse.

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