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Kazinsal posted:About 20% of people in Ukraine self-identify as Russian so I could see Putin going "we're saving all these ethnic Russians from the Ukrainian occupation" or something ridiculous and/or expecting 20% of Ukraine's population to just rise up and become Russia-aligned insurgents. I dont know enough about Ukraine, really, does that exclude the people in the eastern regions that already broke away or is it counting them?
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Jan 15, 2022 01:52
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Marshal Prolapse posted:Well at least all those books I’ve been reading on the Eastern front will be useful Just what the world needed, a 
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Jan 15, 2022 01:56
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What we really need is a 27th battle of the Isonzo
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Jan 15, 2022 02:02
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Nuclear War posted:I dont know enough about Ukraine, really, does that exclude the people in the eastern regions that already broke away or is it counting them? As of the 2001 census there were 8.3 million residents in Ukraine who identified as Russian, and assuming Luhansk and Donetsk are 100% ethnically Russian, that still leaves 7 million Russians in Ukraine.
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Jan 15, 2022 02:19
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Nuclear War posted:The thing about the ukraine/russia standoff i don't understand, is, what do people think is the endgame except for posturing? There's no way in my mind the russians can occupy a country that size with that population. They'd destroy themselves trying, right? And the poles would be just over the border pouring money and resources and manpower into a campaign of spec ops and resistance funding like their lives depended on it surely? That depends on the population's willingness to resist. Which honestly seems an open question because there are so many variables to that. Does the Ukrainian army flop over and give up? That could promote a resistance, or kill it in the cradle by showing the people they're not unified enough to resist. Does the war drag on a long time? The people will be more hardened and in a better fighting mindset, but after enough time they might be too fatigued to continue. I have no doubt most Ukrainians are much more hostile towards Russia after the better part of a decade of frozen conflict, but the fact remains it's within living memory for a lot of them that they were part of Russia. I think the only thing Putin ever wanted from all this was internal stability through shows of force, because any economic goal is ludicrous even in the best case scenarios for Russia. The international community was always going to take more money away from Russia than they could ever make back by grabbing parts or all of Ukraine. They didn't have the resources to do the full invasion in 2014, but a frozen conflict provided enough of a national focus to accomplish the same goal of internal stability for that time. But eventually he has to put up or shut up, we've seen how a populace feels about conflicts that go nowhere with the Afghanistan withdrawal, and he's already taken the main hit economically for Crimea, so there isn't much to lose by taking the rest of Ukraine. It also has a good chance of weakening NATO. If Biden doesn't react with force (he almost certainly will not give troops to defend Ukraine), more of the US populace, and some of NATO will see this as weakness, weakening the US and NATO internally. Putin probably doesn't think he will break NATO, but anything that weakens it is good in his books. This wouldn't be the case if he didn't have the Trump years, a super-aggressive Russia would have bolstered NATO even with a US President who is very hesitant to react with force. But of course we did have Trump and that massive hit to internal trust across most of the West. I hope this is just more sabre rattling like the last 8 years, but Crimea came out of the blue even though it seemed like a stupid move on paper. So I wouldn't put anything past them. Orthanc6 fucked around with this message at 02:24 on Jan 15, 2022 |
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Jan 15, 2022 02:20
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Best guess at Putin's goal seems to be what he's been doing for years at this point. gently caress up and destabilize everyone else so his government mafia is the strongest thing in town.
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Jan 15, 2022 02:23
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I thought the Expanse show was excellent, the previous season was weaker but had to be based on the content of the book it was from. Space combat in the show is the best I've seen in any visual medium. poo poo owns. Also lol https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1482139770516119553?s=20
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Jan 15, 2022 02:28
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That Works posted:I thought the Expanse show was excellent, the previous season was weaker but had to be based on the content of the book it was from. Space combat in the show is the best I've seen in any visual medium. poo poo owns. Party of small government and local not federal control at it again.
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Jan 15, 2022 02:36
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bird food bathtub posted:Best guess at Putin's goal seems to be what he's been doing for years at this point. gently caress up and destabilize everyone else so his government mafia is the strongest thing in town. It's also been a while since he's dropped a new track and all the other pariah dictators are thinking he's all tired and Parkinson'ed up. He's gotta drop dat fire or Xi might think of him as more of a hype man than a G.
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Jan 15, 2022 02:37
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Stultus Maximus posted:Party of small government and local not federal control at it again. Whoa a Rep called Chip Roy? More like Chips A-Roy E, that's not what I meant to quote but lol
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Jan 15, 2022 02:55
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Marshal Prolapse posted:On the whiter side of things I give you the shittiest pirate It’s like Dan Crenshaw and Sloth had a baby.
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Jan 15, 2022 03:19
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Squalid Snake
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Jan 15, 2022 03:26
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Kazinsal posted:As of the 2001 census there were 8.3 million residents in Ukraine who identified as Russian, and assuming Luhansk and Donetsk are 100% ethnically Russian, that still leaves 7 million Russians in Ukraine. Destabilization is his biggest weapon, just look at anyone else he's messed with like Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan and anyone that doesn't follow his footsteps exactly. I'm assuming Chechnya was his original template, his lack of concern for human rights and use of brutal repression mean that instability isn't as great a danger to him as NATO or other western institutions. Just create warlords that rule with an iron fist and keep them at arms length without admitting they are your puppets to maintain international approval. Or at least thats what I'm assuming?
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Jan 15, 2022 03:28
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That Works posted:I thought the Expanse show was excellent, the previous season was weaker but had to be based on the content of the book it was from. Space combat in the show is the best I've seen in any visual medium. poo poo owns. I thought it was a nice ending, and while I'm sad its probably gone, I'm sure it will continue to enter into the Top Gear->Grand Tour-> Peaky Blinders->Expanse rotation of things I put on when I'm trying to fall asleep.
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Jan 15, 2022 03:35
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lightpole posted:Destabilization is his biggest weapon, just look at anyone else he's messed with like Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan and anyone that doesn't follow his footsteps exactly. I'm assuming Chechnya was his original template, his lack of concern for human rights and use of brutal repression mean that instability isn't as great a danger to him as NATO or other western institutions. Just create warlords that rule with an iron fist and keep them at arms length without admitting they are your puppets to maintain international approval. Or at least thats what I'm assuming? Pretty much what I've put together.
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Jan 15, 2022 03:48
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FedEx wants to put missile defense lasers on their planes.
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Jan 15, 2022 04:45
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Train shipping companies should probably beef up their defenses too.
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Jan 15, 2022 05:32
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loving reality just making the wildest fiction look dumb. Nobody who wrote cyberpunk said "and the first armed contender in the corporate wars was a package delivery company." Nobody would believe that in a novel it's supposed to be some shadowy international mercenaries-for-hire group or a defense R&D company.
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Jan 15, 2022 05:40
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Nuclear War posted:The thing about the ukraine/russia standoff i don't understand, is, what do people think is the endgame except for posturing? There's no way in my mind the russians can occupy a country that size with that population. They'd destroy themselves trying, right? And the poles would be just over the border pouring money and resources and manpower into a campaign of spec ops and resistance funding like their lives depended on it surely? this is the crimean peninsula:  you may be familiar with it as the region of ukraine that russia actually invaded (rather than sorta kinda but not really invaded and was just friendly to the local militias who acquired heavy artillery at their local military surplus store) and annexed in 2014, because the western side of it contains the city of Sevastopol, Russia's only (previously leased from Ukraine) warm water western port. the eastern part of this peninsula is now home to a nice new bridge to Russia. this is a bridge, and suitable for transporting cars. being a bridge, it has somewhat limited throughput. the blue thing on the northern side of the circle is the Dniepr river. this river is notable for being the primary source of fresh water to the Crimean peninsula, which is currently cut off, which is rather inconvenient to Russia's interests in maintaining a major naval base there and administering the region in general, because ferrying a shitton of fresh water over a bridge sucks. the northeast is the city of Mariupol, which
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Jan 15, 2022 05:40
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Crab Dad posted:Train shipping companies should probably beef up their defenses too. Dahir Insaat is going to put CIWS in a shipping container.
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Jan 15, 2022 05:40
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bird food bathtub posted:loving reality just making the wildest fiction look dumb. Nobody who wrote cyberpunk said "and the first armed contender in the corporate wars was a package delivery company." Nobody would believe that in a novel it's supposed to be some shadowy international mercenaries-for-hire group or a defense R&D company. Wells Fargo used to have shotguns on the stagecoach. Merchant ships carried weapons until the 19th century sometimes (then again briefly when the Germans got to germaning) and even now occasionally in certain areas. Transportation’s always been wild, planes are just the most civilized.
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Jan 15, 2022 06:10
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Crab Dad posted:Train shipping companies should probably beef up their defenses too. In five years or less, grocery delivery vans will probably be armored trucks.
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Jan 15, 2022 06:14
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New season of Justified coming. Deadline: Timothy Olyphant To Return As Raylan Givens In ‘Justified: City Primeval’ As FX Greenlights Latest Elmore Leonard Adaptation. https://deadline.com/2022/01/fx-greenlights-latest-elmore-leonard-1234912732/
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Jan 15, 2022 06:24
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FrozenVent posted:Wells Fargo used to have shotguns on the stagecoach. Merchant ships carried weapons until the 19th century sometimes (then again briefly when the Germans got to germaning) and even now occasionally in certain areas. I don’t know that stagecoaches ever got as metal as Federal Express Flight 705. High seas piracy, sure.
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Jan 15, 2022 06:32
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Nuclear War posted:The thing about the ukraine/russia standoff i don't understand, is, what do people think is the endgame except for posturing? There's no way in my mind the russians can occupy a country that size with that population. They'd destroy themselves trying, right? And the poles would be just over the border pouring money and resources and manpower into a campaign of spec ops and resistance funding like their lives depended on it surely? Here you go this is a really good analysis from CSIS. https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-possible-invasion-ukraine
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Jan 15, 2022 06:33
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CMYK BLYAT! posted:you may be familiar with it i'm more familiar with it as the Genoese-Khanate/Ottoman Protectorate-Muscovy thunderdome actually
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Jan 15, 2022 06:46
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bird food bathtub posted:loving reality just making the wildest fiction look dumb. Nobody who wrote cyberpunk said "and the first armed contender in the corporate wars was a package delivery company." Nobody would believe that in a novel it's supposed to be some shadowy international mercenaries-for-hire group or a defense R&D company. World-wide delivery in 30 minutes or less!
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Jan 15, 2022 07:26
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A volcano in Tonga has blown up and caused tsunamis. The satellite imagery is pretty wild. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-60007119
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Jan 15, 2022 11:40
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bird food bathtub posted:loving reality just making the wildest fiction look dumb. Nobody who wrote cyberpunk said "and the first armed contender in the corporate wars was a package delivery company." Nobody would believe that in a novel it's supposed to be some shadowy international mercenaries-for-hire group or a defense R&D company. It really is shocking to me that the mafia hasn't tried to expand more into legitimate businesses over the years. I know the cartels have diversified into very strange or at least atypical avenues SlightlyMad posted:A volcano in Tonga has blown up and caused tsunamis. The satellite imagery is pretty wild. eight loving minutes on a lighter note, thanks to free streaming tv websites, I actually knew tonga existed beforehand. Thanks internet! Milo and POTUS fucked around with this message at 12:09 on Jan 15, 2022 |
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Jan 15, 2022 12:04
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The sound of the eruption captured from Fiji, more than 500 miles away. I can’t really process something so loud and violent that if it happened in NYC, I could hear it like that in Toledo, OH. gently caress. https://twitter.com/portiajessene/status/1482331548330659841?s=20 Thwomp fucked around with this message at 14:50 on Jan 15, 2022 |
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Jan 15, 2022 14:46
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It's comforting somewhat to know that people everywhere are stupid https://twitter.com/sharkbaitza/status/1482310977429327873?s=20 e: no one dies in the vid
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Jan 15, 2022 15:00
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https://twitter.com/BOM_au/status/1482314666655490056 Areas under warning - specifically for the Australian coast: "While evacuations are not necessary for marine warning zones, people in these areas are advised to leave the water and move away from the immediate water's edge." From Tonga - looks pretty crazy but at least it's not Boxing Day / Tōhoku level. https://twitter.com/sakakimoana/status/1482218193619865600
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Jan 15, 2022 15:01
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The weatherpocalypse thread has more satellite imagery of the volcano blast. That thing was amazing. https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3762868&pagenumber=380
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Jan 15, 2022 15:01
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The eruption of Krakatoa was said to have sounded like nearby cannon fire at Rodrigues, across the Indian Ocean at a distance of three thousand miles. That’s like hearing being in San Francisco and hearing an event in New York City. And that wasn’t even the most powerful volcanic eruption of the nineteenth century.
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Jan 15, 2022 15:05
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CRUSTY MINGE posted:New season of Justified coming. Sorry about the tablecloth. (This is awesome news)
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Jan 15, 2022 15:05
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That Works posted:It's comforting somewhat to know that people everywhere are stupid That's actually from a tidal bore in Indonesia. Also because it's 2022, you can of course watch the woman's POV online https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qq7iQ4JV_AE
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Jan 15, 2022 15:12
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Fragrag posted:That's actually from a tidal bore in Indonesia. Ahhh thanks for the correction. Still happy about the stupid people thing I guess.
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Jan 15, 2022 15:16
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SlightlyMad posted:The weatherpocalypse thread has more satellite imagery of the volcano blast. That thing was amazing. Yeah Himawari and GOES-West both saw it and god drat. I think we can put the "nuke the hurricane" hypothesis to bed now. https://twitter.com/SpaceAngeles/status/1482241903894667264
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Jan 15, 2022 15:57
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