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Nenonen posted:On both sides of it, Transnistria is a landlocked fiefdom after all. I guess my mental map of Transnistria gave it more credit than it deserved.
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Jan 14, 2022 19:12
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nurmie posted:rereading that "all your base belongs to us" message, the russian part of it feels kinda wonky as well. like not as wonky as the polish part of it apparently - at least it's correct grammatically. but it still feels like it's not written by a native speaker or something. sort of like if G-Man was speaking in russian It's basically word-by-word, but my Ukrainian isn't good enough to know whether all the word choices are correct (and whether the grammar of the first word is).
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Jan 14, 2022 19:17
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Nenonen posted:On both sides of it, Transnistria is a landlocked fiefdom after all.
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Jan 14, 2022 19:17
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Grouchio posted:Why does Ukraine have Moldova's coastline? Budjak was added to the Ukrainian SSR the same year as the Crimea, 1954. :smugkhruschev:
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Jan 14, 2022 19:24
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welp, personnel is moving now. Not a good sign. Before it was just eqiupment https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1482055270868131841?cxt=HHwWgoC52dTaqJEpAAAA
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Jan 14, 2022 19:28
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Nenonen posted:Budjak was added to the Ukrainian SSR the same year as the Crimea, 1954. :smugkhruschev: And before that it was forced off Romania by USSR in 1940s, and then re-added after the war. It's rather multi-ethnic: 
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Jan 14, 2022 19:29
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OddObserver posted:And before that it was forced off Romania by USSR in 1940s, and then re-added after the war. It's rather multi-ethnic: Yeah this is basically how europe looked before the whole national borders must equal political borders thing
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Jan 14, 2022 19:31
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FishBulbia posted:Yeah this is basically how europe looked before the whole national borders must equal political borders thing ...and with a lot more Jews pre-WWII. (though this kind of map won't show that well).
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Jan 14, 2022 19:35
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OddObserver posted:...and with a lot more Jews pre-WWII. (though this kind of map won't show that well). An issue with these maps in general is it was of course even more mixed. Like those "Moldovan" areas might still be 30% ukrainian speakers.
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Jan 14, 2022 19:39
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Haha, the geo data in that image is also a good attempt, but not quiet. They went for the Polish military HQ, but instead located in the university next door. I guess they thought glass dome, palace exteriors = must be military HQ. The actual HQ is a non-descript, modernist building down the road. And further down on that road, there’s the security service HQ, too. Fun fact: I went to high school on that street. Our studniówka, Polish prom I guess, was held in the closest viable place - a Police billards club “Magnum” that normally holds lonely heart afternoons for ex cops in the evening (aside from the military and security HQ, there’s also the central Police crime laboratory next door). It had 80’s woodshit on the walls, and they moved some of the billiard tables aside so we could dance our Polonez. Also Kazik Staszewski lived next door, and seeing him every morning walking his dog blew our heads for, like, the first two weeks. https://youtu.be/x3kicEsx7g0
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Jan 14, 2022 19:45
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FishBulbia posted:welp, personnel is moving now. Not a good sign. Before it was just eqiupment Roughly half of Russia's contract troops are in place or on the way to the border, plus TBD numbers from the Eastern Military District.
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Jan 14, 2022 20:11
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Mokotow posted:Haha, the geo data in that image is also a good attempt, but not quiet. They went for the Polish military HQ, but instead located in the university next door. I guess they thought glass dome, palace exteriors = must be military HQ. The actual HQ is a non-descript, modernist building down the road. And further down on that road, there’s the security service HQ, too. Also, a XIXth century style scary orphanage is on the same street. Famous for being visited by Michael Jackson. Street is cursed is what I’m saying, also because I rented across the street from the orphanage for a few years.
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Jan 14, 2022 20:32
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Russia seems to have a really chill army if they're troops are all allowed to use their smartphones on the way to the front lines.
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Jan 14, 2022 20:36
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Anne Frank Funk posted:Also, a XIXth century style scary orphanage is on the same street. Famous for being visited by Michael Jackson. Haha, I know your building  . Our school yard shared a wall with the orphanage on the left (they renovated it and it’s a conservatory apparently, nice on, too) and a juvie jail on the right. Whichever wall we’d kick the ball over, it probably wasn’t coming back.
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Jan 14, 2022 20:38
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Al-Saqr posted:Russia seems to have a really chill army if they're troops are all allowed to use their smartphones on the way to the front lines. Chill is one way to say underpaid and underdisciplined.
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Jan 14, 2022 20:50
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Al-Saqr posted:Russia seems to have a really chill army if they're troops are all allowed to use their smartphones on the way to the front lines. They're just on their way to a chill exercise nbd.
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Jan 14, 2022 20:59
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Al-Saqr posted:Russia seems to have a really chill army if they're troops are all allowed to use their smartphones on the way to the front lines. What else is there to do in platzkart except smell feet, warm meat, and vodka?
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Jan 14, 2022 21:04
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steinrokkan posted:Chill is one way to say underpaid and underdisciplined. But enough about the US armed forces (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 14, 2022 21:18
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Blut posted:@GABA ghoul Italian citizenship isn't just limited to grandparents. Anyone who can prove an Italian ancestor from any time after Italian unification (1860ish iirc) can claim it. Its very popular with Brasilians who want to move to the EU. That's like 40% of the US population between Delaware and Boston.
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Jan 14, 2022 21:48
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Is it fair to say that the majority of Russia's power at this point is hard power from their military? Russia can flex in Ukraine or Syria or Tajikistan, but how much soft power, that is to say meaningful economic influence and alliances, do they have globally compared to the US or China? It could be said that Russia's aggression and don't give a gently caress attitude about international norms is due to the fact that they're punching up and desperate to maintain a hold against world powers. Why care about the rules set by your opponents if you have no sway in their system anyway?
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Jan 14, 2022 22:26
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Russia also has economic power due to its control of fuel pipelines. A lot of its aggressions is in defending the centrality of the influences that their power infra provides. The "don't give a gently caress" attitude in a lot of communications (which is shared with Chinese international diplomatic comms) is less of a calculated practice and more a combo of extended institutional culture and, to a limited extent, catering to a domestic audience/internal propaganda.
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Jan 14, 2022 22:28
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proletariando posted:Is it fair to say that the majority of Russia's power at this point is hard power from their military? Russia can flex in Ukraine or Syria or Tajikistan, but how much soft power, that is to say meaningful economic influence and alliances, do they have globally compared to the US or China? in addition to the aforementioned energy influence, Russia maintains strong economic and diplomatic ties with the former Soviet nations it hasn't pissed off. several of the central Asian nations send a significant number of migrant workers to Russia (AFAIK Kazakhstan doesn't really because it's relatively more well off than the others/has plenty of local oil work and Turkmenistan doesn't because Turkmenistan). it has a cordial, cooperative relationship with China, with significant inbound trade from China (go figure, it's China, but sharing a long land border allows for a lot of small-scale import businesses). Obama wasn't wrong about modern Russia being a regional power: their diplomatic and economic ties are focused in their region (which is, admittedly, large, because Russia is large), but most of those aren't because Russia is using military threats to enforce continued relations.
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Jan 14, 2022 23:37
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Yeah, Russia controls basically none of international trade and free-loads a lot off the EU:s insistence to stay reliant on their natural gas. However, to most of their neighbors they are a local superpower which cannot be disregarded and has to handled. If it isn't economically then it is militarily, Russia is simply too large to ignore even in its diminished state.
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Jan 14, 2022 23:40
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Transnistria would be good to court and potentially award a sea lane to trade with Russia and also increasing their economic. It protects their new west border by having a simultaneous ally and neutral state. If Putin wins the Ukrainian gable he stands to greatly move the direction of his sphere, a lot of moves become open that would be otherwise deadly because Americas resources were in play. Ukraine falling would be signal the end of American global superpower status as it would mean that we cannot stop a regional power from doing as it wishes like we've been doing. Building bullshit countries up may seem like a waste of time but it causes bigger stability rifts to have them exist and stoking that crisis is good for Putin. If a large country was divided as hell it would absolutely benefit them to distract this country from the international issues. COVID lasting so loving long is a part of that equation in regards to the US. Domestic issues always cause intl stuff to go into the shadow. Belarus dumping refugees in Latvia was a good attempt at this but didn't go well at all because this shits just so tiny. If they'd dropped 50,000 immigrants on the Latvian border that would cause actual chaos. WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 03:01 on Jan 15, 2022 |
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Jan 15, 2022 02:52
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Was just idly going back through some photos I took on my trip to Moscow in 2015:  
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Jan 15, 2022 03:22
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i have a question: if there is going to be a real war, will russian airspace close for civilian liners? i have a flight booked from japan to europe in the middle of february (JAL, a japanese carrier), should i be worried or book a different flight via the middle east?
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Jan 15, 2022 03:45
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:If Putin wins the Ukrainian gable he stands to greatly move the direction of his sphere, a lot of moves become open that would be otherwise deadly because Americas resources were in play. Ukraine falling would be signal the end of American global superpower status as it would mean that we cannot stop a regional power from doing as it wishes like we've been doing. The US and Soviet Union were both superpowers despite both being incapable of preventing the other from doing some stuff. The total American post-Cold War dominance is already dead, but Russia clawing back a bit of their former sphere of influence, at great economic and diplomatic cost, wouldn't be all that big a blow to the US imo. Sure, it would leave some Western allies like the Baltics and even Poland feeling more nervous than they did before, but it would still be a far cry from divided Germany and the Warsaw Pact or anything. Obviously it's a bigger issue if the US extends idiotic security guarantees to Ukraine that it fails to back up (which is why the US should agree to a deal that Ukraine will never join NATO if it helps to secure peace), but so far I don't think that sort of commitment remotely exists. Russia's obviously a bigger deal than the regional power Obama dismissively described them as, but I don't think they're anywhere near reclaiming superpower status themselves, let alone toppling the US from that position. That's China's job. Or domestic political poo poo in the US maybe.
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Jan 15, 2022 04:04
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Transnistria would be good to court and potentially award a sea lane to trade with Russia and also increasing their economic. It protects their new west border by having a simultaneous ally and neutral state. your posts continue to be a treasure. yes, this, this is what demonstrates the final failure of american foreign policy, the climactic confrontation in which america loses the cold war to the soviet union. our many misadventures in the intervening 30 years were no big deal, as russia is our one true mortal enemy, and our foreign policy failures elsewhere are irrelevant so long as we can win against the big bad of eurasia re Sir Bobert Fishbone's post lol, and i thought the new ruble bill was bad. those are some idiotic museum pieces. double lol at the framing in the last photo making that one guy look like a giant shirt.
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Jan 15, 2022 04:13
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Shibawanko posted:i have a question: if there is going to be a real war, will russian airspace close for civilian liners? i have a flight booked from japan to europe in the middle of february (JAL, a japanese carrier), should i be worried or book a different flight via the middle east? No one can tell for certain, but Russia has a lot of airspace between Japan and Europe. I wouldn’t worry about this, your carrier should owe you to reroute if they must anyway.
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Jan 15, 2022 05:12
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Sinteres posted:Russia's obviously a bigger deal than the regional power Obama dismissively described them as, but I don't think they're anywhere near reclaiming superpower status themselves, let alone toppling the US from that position. Russia is a regional power, it just so happens that Ukraine is in their region. Within living memory, the area they're currently preparing to invade wasn't just part of their sphere, it was considered some of their core territory. They punch above their weight because of a disproportionate investment in military and cyber systems and vast natural gas reserves, but their economy is on partner with South Korea.
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Jan 15, 2022 05:16
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CMYK BLYAT! posted:your posts continue to be a treasure. yes, this, this is what demonstrates the final failure of american foreign policy, the climactic confrontation in which america loses the cold war to the soviet union. our many misadventures in the intervening 30 years were no big deal, as russia is our one true mortal enemy, and our foreign policy failures elsewhere are irrelevant so long as we can win against the big bad of eurasia I believe that each one of those failures has compromised our empire. It's all the policy failures elsewhere which have proven we cannot win against Russia, china or Iran. This narrative Ia fairly recent in nature. I believe Russia may not do anything, however there is a greater chance of an actual act to occur when the American hive mind cannot fathom another conflict(or supporting one). by fathoming another conflict I mean having one in our thoughts at any given time Ukraine probably doesn't even bump 1% of searches by the American audience. This just in: White House: Russia prepping pretext for Ukraine invasion Expanded: We have info that indicates Russia has already pre positioned a group of operatives to conduct a false flag operation in eastern Ukraine. The operatives are trained in urban warfare & using explosives to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia's own proxy forces. - @PressSec https://apnews.com/article/europe-russia-media-ukraine-vladimir-putin-f24e6bd400e20d7890daff371cd80eb2 This coincides with the 45th soars "deployment" to Kazakhstan. An alibi of existence for a group that's actually very specifically super good at Ukraine espionage? Lol if they bomb luhansk WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 06:18 on Jan 15, 2022 |
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Jan 15, 2022 05:27
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OddObserver posted:...why would you even write in Polish to address Ukrainians? This is from the russian nationalist folklore that Ukraine and Ukrainians aren't real, just more or less polonized russians from the PLC times (+ small minority in the western areas). The same recently came up in Belarus and echoes looking for Polish agents from the interwar period In 2014 when Putin was talking about the brave nation of Novorossiya, you had maps circulating around with the proposed spheres of influence with Russia getting everything from Lugansk to Transnistria, a small rump state in the North and the Lvov areas going to Poland. At the time iirc EU negotiators were saying that those were the official russian proposals to divide up Ukraine into spheres of influence
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Jan 15, 2022 10:00
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Sinteres posted:Russia's obviously a bigger deal than the regional power Obama dismissively described them as, but I don't think they're anywhere near reclaiming superpower status themselves, let alone toppling the US from that position. That's China's job. Or domestic political poo poo in the US maybe.
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Jan 15, 2022 10:33
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Further proof, if any was needed, that Comic Sans is a war crime.
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Jan 15, 2022 11:19
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Sweden seems nervous https://mobile.twitter.com/reuters/status/1481721534981058569 They and Finland should look out, the American devil CIA is likely to organize a colour revolution to install a nazi puppet government that joins NATO encircling Russia further and privatising everything
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Jan 15, 2022 11:30
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Somaen posted:They and Finland should look out, the American devil CIA is likely to organize a colour revolution to install a nazi puppet government that joins NATO encircling Russia further and privatising everything I've been informed there's no color in Finland, so they should be OK
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Jan 15, 2022 11:34
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Somaen posted:Sweden seems nervous
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Jan 15, 2022 11:36
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Swedish military knows not to waste a crisis and has been on a PR-offensive for the last two weeks to get more funding.
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Jan 15, 2022 11:40
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steinrokkan posted:I've been informed there's no color in Finland, so they should be OK And you know why that is.  quote:Why should they feel nervous if they aren't the target for provocation? Scared to death of losing their neutrality? There's a lot of military ships passing according to the article. I guess militaries respond to perceived risks, there's a non-zero chance something bad happens, so they need to beef up even if it's unlikely (and beefing up is a deterrent further reducing risk)
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Jan 15, 2022 11:50
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