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Which horse film is your favorite? This poll is closed. |
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| Black Beauty |
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2 | 1.06% |
| A Talking Pony!?! |
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4 | 2.13% |
| Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor |
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117 | 62.23% |
| War Horse |
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11 | 5.85% |
| Mr. Hands |
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54 | 28.72% |
| Total: | 188 votes | ||
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Epic High Five posted:I'm pretty sure this would require culling the populations of dry grass which is even more impossible than deer, alas Also mice, chipmunks, dogs, and rabbits can carry lyme if I remember correctly. You can have deer in prometherin traps and kill tons of ticks and you can cull deer but they aren't the only animals that ticks are giving lyme to.
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Jan 17, 2022 15:22
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dwarf74 posted:Okay wow, I step away for a day, and people are soberly suggesting exterminating deer? Exterminating, no (WC doesn't count), but a hardcore cull and predator restoration to control their numbers and reduce their ability to be a disease reservoir and hardcore rodent control in cities? That may be a very good policy plan. As for small rodents out of cities... I think helping the return of black footed ferrets and kit foxes and native wild cats, various reptiles and other rodentivores as well as population control would help.
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Jan 17, 2022 16:01
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I'm guessing if, as we know, minks can get covid, we wouldn't be solving anything by depending on ferrets
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Jan 17, 2022 16:07
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Riptor posted:I'm guessing if, as we know, minks can get covid, we wouldn't be solving anything by depending on ferrets
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Jan 17, 2022 16:13
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Riptor posted:I'm guessing if, as we know, minks can get covid, we wouldn't be solving anything by depending on ferrets The habits of wild mustelids are less likely to bring them into contact with us.
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Jan 17, 2022 16:14
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Denmark - 17 January 2022 Skipped a day, busy. ICU bed count still dropping, assuming it's because it's largely kids getting it now. Daily "Last 7 days cases" split into three age brackets: pre:17 Jan 15 Jan 14 Jan 13 Jan 12 Jan 11 Jan 10 Jan 07 Jan 0-19 years 40.9% 37.7% 36.5% 35.6% 34.2% 31.8% 30.1% 27% 20-39 years 31.0% 32.9% 33.8% 34.7% 36.1% 38.2% 39.1% 40% 40+ years 28.1% 29.4% 29.8% 29.7% 29.6% 30.0% 30.7% 33% Well 41% of the cases are 0-19, but they're 6.2% of hospital admits and none of them ended up in ICU. edit: I musta missed something, the next numbers don't line up. Ignore til i check pre:Cases Hospital ICU 0-19 65,622 17 0 20-39 49,772 56 1 40+ 45,038 200 10 pre:0-19 3 20-40 21 40+ 3,484 40-49 28 50-59 109 60-69 306 70-79 915 80-89 1,322 90+ 754 pre:Actual Reported New Total Date Cases Cases Reinf. Hosp. Hosp. ICU Vent Dead ============================================================================================== Jan 17 --- 28,780 1,815 203 802 52 (-7) 37 (-4) 11 Jan 16 10,727 ------- ----- --- 734 59 (+0) 41 (+1) 16 Jan 15 25,135 25,034 1,644 202 711 59 (-1) 40 (+4) 16 Jan 14 25,881 23,614 1,519 215 757 60 (-4) 36 (-2) 15 Jan 13 23,776 25,751 1,822 194 755 64 (-9) 38 (-8) 20 Jan 12 22,575 24,343 1,614 215 751 73 (+0) 46 (+0) 25 Jan 11 22,656 22,936 1,459 181 754 73 (-1) 46 (-1) 14 Jan 10 23,244 14,414 941 156 777 74 (-3) 47 (-3) 9 Jan 09 16,330 19,248 1,327 126 723 77 (-1) 50 (-2) 14 Jan 08 13,573 12,588 984 161 730 78 (+0) 52 (-1) 28 Jan 07 14,434 18,261 1,482 186 755 78 (-4) 53 (+4) 10 Jan 06 15,417 25,995 2,027 161 756 82 (+2) 47 (-2) 11 Jan 05 17,577 28,283 2,083 204 784 80 (+3) 49 (+2) 15 Jan 04 23,698 23,372 1,701 229 792 77 (+4) 47 (+1) 15 Jan 03* 25,617 8,801 532 169 770 73 (-3) 46 (-4) 5 Jan 02 19,906 7,550 404 163 709 76 (+3) 50 (+1) 15 Jan 01 8,631 20,885 1,049 139 647 73 (+0) 49 (+0) 5 Dec 31 9,728 17,605 1,090 177 641 73 (-2) 49 (-1) 11 Dec 30 19,927 21,403 1,123 178 665 75 (-2) 50 (-2) 9 Dec 29 17,245 23,228 1,205 173 675 77 (+6) 52 (+2) 16 Dec 28 21,955 13,000 670 177 666 71 (+1) 50 (+4) 14 Dec 27 22,616 16,164 639 115 608 70 (-1) 46 (-2) 7 Dec 26 10,965 14,844 644 123 579 71 (-2) 43 (+1) 13 Dec 25 7,853 10,027 463 86 522 73 (-1) 44 (+5) 10 Dec 24 7,054 11,229 527 134 509 74 (+2) 39 (+1) 14 Dec 23 12,605 12,487 613 158 541 72 (+6) 38 (+1) 15 Dec 22 11,591 13,386 531 126 524 66 (-1) 37 (+2) 14 Dec 21 13,011 13,558 501 121 526 67 (+1) 35 (+2) 17 Dec 20 13,288 10,082 --- 85 581 66 (+3) 33 (-2) 8 Dec 19 10,231 8,212 Dec 18 10,049 8,594 Dec 17 10.614 11,194 Dec 16 10,171 9,999 Dec 15 10,775 8,773 --- 96 508 66 (+0) 43 (-3) 9 Dec 13 10,294 7,799 --- 61 480 64 (-1) 42 (+0) 9 Dec 12 6,986 5,989 --- 82 468 65 (+5) 42 (+6) 9 Dec 08 6,560 6,629 --- 72 461 66 (-1) 38 (-1) 7 Dec 01 4,464 5,120 --- 88 439 35 (+1) 35 (+1) 14 pre:Infection Hospitalization Unvac Partial Full Unvac Partial Full =============================================================================== 15 JAN 459.5 477.1 336.1 38.5 32.4 9.4 14 JAN 435.1 416.8 324.5 40.7 34.7 10.0 13 JAN 497.6 531.1 354.2 41.0 38.3 9.8 12 JAN 474.2 457.2 333.0 49.4 35.0 10.0 11 JAN 447.9 434.8 303.3 40.3 34.9 10.1 10 JAN 292.3 276.6 192.2 42.8 34.8 10.3 09 JAN 403.6 367.3 276.6 40.6 35.3 9.4 08 JAN 264.2 245.5 186.6 39.7 31.3 9.8 07 JAN 413.9 365.6 272.3 41.3 30.6 10.2 06 JAN 566.3 561.1 398.6 40.4 33.9 10.3 05 JAN 586.9 576.8 445.9 43.0 30.6 10.5 04 JAN* 512.2 533.3 390.8 43.6 28.9 11.0 03 JAN* 165.6 153.7 135.7 42.2 23.4 10.5 02 JAN 152.8 150.7 124.7 41.4 18.7 9.5 01 JAN 437.8 413.6 331.2 38.6 18.4 8.6 31 DEC 341.1 334.2 300.2 37.8 20.7 8.6 30 DEC 409.2 391.5 345.5 39.4 21.1 8.9 29 DEC 443.6 446.0 377.4 40.1 18.5 9.1 28 DEC 237.3 208.2 210.2 40.5 16.9 8.6 27 DEC 304.4 324.9 263.3 40.0 15.8 7.8 26 DEC 310.4 274.9 241.2 39.0 15.4 7.3 25 DEC 181.6 162.1 161.5 33.9 16.0 6.8 24 DEC 184.1 173.0 182.1 34.5 14.9 7.1 23 DEC 237.1 202.6 197.9 35.4 16.2 7.5 22 DEC 257.1 198.1 211.7 34.2 15.3 7.3 21 DEC 270.1 226.2 207.8 32.9 14.3 7.5 20 DEC 201.2 154.4 149.0 34.0 15.6 7.7 17 DEC 252.1 199.3 172.9 31.0 14.9 6.8 15 DEC 216.0 153.3 121.6 31.3 11.7 6.7 13 DEC 215.3 131.3 100.8 29.8 11.5 6.6 08 DEC 193.5 126.9 80.9 27.5 8.7 6.5 01 DEC 162.4 102.1 59.84 24.6 11.3 6.1 25 NOV 134.7 120.9 52.97 21.9 7.2 5.9 pre:Date Bed Availability ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 03 January 331 ICU beds, 76 COVID, 32 available 27 December 316 ICU beds, 71 COVID, 62 available 20 December 317 ICU beds, 60 COVID, 59 available 13 December 319 ICU beds, 64 COVID, 39 available 06 December 310 ICU beds, 67 COVID, 10 available <-- squeaky bum time here 29 November 318 ICU beds, 61 COVID, 25 available https://www.rkkp.dk/kvalitetsdatabaser/databaser/dansk-intensiv-database/resultater/ https://covid19.ssi.dk/overvagningsdata/download-fil-med-overvaagningdata https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/242ec2acc014456295189631586f1d26 https://covid19.ssi.dk/virusvarianter/delta-pcr Rust Martialis fucked around with this message at 17:39 on Jan 17, 2022 |
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Jan 17, 2022 16:35
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My nutso anti-vaxxer coworker has COVID pretty bad, and her equally-nuts husband is in ICU. I'm shocked! Shocked! Well, not that shocked.
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Jan 17, 2022 16:56
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Petey posted:FYI — if you need a PCR test for some reason, Amazon (the company) is now selling the platform it uses for its workers for $40. You buy the pack and then, when you need to use it, you drop it in the mail with the included prepaid next-day shipping and get results back within 24 hrs of arriving. Whoa Amazon actually provided something good for the world. Any idea what the expiration dates are like on these tests?
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Jan 17, 2022 17:06
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smoobles posted:Whoa Amazon actually provided something good for the world. Any idea what the expiration dates are like on these tests? They claim on that page "up to six months depending on when you purchased your kit." Which doesn't quite answer that...
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Jan 17, 2022 18:05
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Is that 40 for one test? That seems really high?
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Jan 17, 2022 18:15
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dwarf74 posted:Is that 40 for one test? not for pcr and overnight shipping
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Jan 17, 2022 18:16
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Here's the thing, with all the talk about animal culls. We're probably not going to be able to do it, and we probably shouldn't do it even if we could. COVID is probably never going to go extinct....diseases with animal reservoirs almost never do. But what's likely to happen, and what we're starting to see happen, is that it's going to go endemic. It's going to die down, then flare up every once in a while, make a bunch of people ill, and then die back down. That's usually what happens with diseases. There's certainly a lot of room for conversations about how to minimize its effects (and vaccines and PPE get us a lot of the way there, it looks like), but I don't see it going away. Which, again, is normal.
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Jan 17, 2022 18:17
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A question about the "endemic disease becomes milder" discourse. What about diseases that have been endemic for... Decades? Centuries? such as polio, measles, syphilis, etc. Why don't these diseases in particular (or any other disease you wish to name) become milder? If there is a reason for these to not become milder like the flu, what reason is it?
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Jan 17, 2022 18:55
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Some nice people on the news said it and I'm inclined to agree because it makes me feel good inside.
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Jan 17, 2022 19:00
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Epicurius posted:Here's the thing, with all the talk about animal culls. We're probably not going to be able to do it, and we probably shouldn't do it even if we could. COVID is probably never going to go extinct....diseases with animal reservoirs almost never do. But what's likely to happen, and what we're starting to see happen, is that it's going to go endemic. It's going to die down, then flare up every once in a while, make a bunch of people ill, and then die back down. That's usually what happens with diseases. There's certainly a lot of room for conversations about how to minimize its effects (and vaccines and PPE get us a lot of the way there, it looks like), but I don't see it going away. Which, again, is normal. https://twitter.com/Globalbiosec/status/1460371894058708992 A good breakdown in why edemicity is not in the COVID evolutionary tool kit and is unlikely to be so.
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Jan 17, 2022 19:03
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AndreTheGiantBoned posted:A question about the "endemic disease becomes milder" discourse. What about diseases that have been endemic for... Decades? Centuries? such as polio, measles, syphilis, etc. If you're responding to Epicurious then I think you have misread them. They aren't saying it's going to get milder, just that it's going to likely come in waves and die down and come back again, the way endemic diseases tend to do. As in, we're not going to be able to eliminate it and it's going to be endemic; something we have to live with. They also mention that there is plenty of room to discuss how to minimize the effects such as vaccines and masks, which would also include NPIs. Nowhere in that post do they say that it's going to get milder. nomad2020 posted:Some nice people on the news said it and I'm inclined to agree because it makes me feel good inside. This kind of pithy comment doesn't really do anything to foster discussion, if you'd like to post here please put in some effort and respond to posters directly if you think they are wrongly assuming things.
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Jan 17, 2022 19:05
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AndreTheGiantBoned posted:A question about the "endemic disease becomes milder" discourse. What about diseases that have been endemic for... Decades? Centuries? such as polio, measles, syphilis, etc. Well, with measles, for instance, it has become milder, at least in effect. For instance, in the 1520s, an outbreak of measles killed about 2/3 of the native population of Cuba. Because measles was new to the America, the population didn't have any immunity. Remember, it's not just a matter of the infectious agent reacting to the population, it's also about the population reacting to the infectious agent. But you're right.....endemic diseases don't have to become milder. It's not a universal law of nature, or anything, and we've known some that haven't....ebola, or lassa fever. Or what Professor Beetus said. Thanks, Prof!
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Jan 17, 2022 19:13
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It is not a direct answer to his post, although my post was triggered by his. I am asking whether the "it will get milder" discourse is either false, or true, or whether it applies to specific diseases, and why. Edit: thanks Epicurius
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Jan 17, 2022 19:14
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UK cases continue to fall, now at a 40% decrease on the 7 day average from the previous week. Hopsitals numbers have stabilised, and maybe even started to decline (first reduction on the 7 day average has appeared on the dashboard) and deaths are continue to follow following the normal delay. With the Omicron variant at least, it appears the UK is now coming through it.
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Jan 17, 2022 19:22
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Epicurius posted:Well, with measles, for instance, it has become milder, at least in effect. For instance, in the 1520s, an outbreak of measles killed about 2/3 of the native population of Cuba. Because measles was new to the America, the population didn't have any immunity. Remember, it's not just a matter of the infectious agent reacting to the population, it's also about the population reacting to the infectious agent. But you're right.....endemic diseases don't have to become milder. It's not a universal law of nature, or anything, and we've known some that haven't....ebola, or lassa fever. Does covid kill enough humans to select for covid-resistant humans Is letting diseases kill of large sections of humanity because the survivors will pass on resistant genes an ethical strategy
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Jan 17, 2022 19:25
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Weasling Weasel posted:UK cases continue to fall, now at a 40% decrease on the 7 day average from the previous week. Hopsitals numbers have stabilised, and maybe even started to decline (first reduction on the 7 day average has appeared on the dashboard) and deaths are continue to follow following the normal delay. With the Omicron variant at least, it appears the UK is now coming through it. This strain of Omicron - Omicron is a clade, not a just a variant now. https://twitter.com/Gab_H_R/status/1482349940391223297 Click the image, for best effect.
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Jan 17, 2022 19:28
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I don't understand what a clade is. Are these forms that are already circulating, because if so they'll already be included in the falling case figures.
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Jan 17, 2022 19:37
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Weasling Weasel posted:I don't understand what a clade is. Are these forms that are already circulating, because if so they'll already be included in the falling case figures. It's a taxonomy term. A group of related organisms/viruses, a branch on the evolutionary family tree. Omicron already has some diversity, there are many related Omicrons, not just one.
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Jan 17, 2022 19:41
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VitalSigns posted:Does covid kill enough humans to select for covid-resistant humans To your first question, it doesn't, not directly, although it probably does put enough pressure on humanity that we will, as a species, grow more resistant to it over time. To your second , I don't think it is, and I've never advocated that, and, I'm not actually advocating that in the message you're quoting. I'm just saying that's what happened to measles as part of the way it got less dangerous over time. If you've seen my previous post, I think that limiting the spread and severity of Covid is best done through a combination of vaccines and NPIs, including masking and other things like that. I'm a little....perturbed? Confused? that I'd have to say that I think it's unethical to let a disease kill off a large section of humanity. It seems like the default position and not much open to to debate.
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Jan 17, 2022 19:46
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Fritz the Horse posted:It's a taxonomy term. A group of related organisms/viruses, a branch on the evolutionary family tree. Omicron already has some diversity, there are many related Omicrons, not just one. For context, each dot is a distinct sampled genome of the virus. And this is just the USA. Consider the possible implications.
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Jan 17, 2022 19:46
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StratGoatCom posted:https://twitter.com/Globalbiosec/status/1460371894058708992 I've never seen the term 'endemic' used in relation to COVID that meant anything other than "when can we start ignoring it"? Like I've seen literal arguments that we need to treat the Omicron wave as endemic.
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Jan 17, 2022 19:47
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Ok, so the point is that it's had a lot of evolutions and off-shoots, but if none have evolved to be particularly more transmittable or deadly, is that an issue? At this rate the cases will have fallen off completed before the end of January, and yes a more deadly or transmittable variant can absolutely happen again for sure, but it's not currently and the impact is that cases are dropping rapidly now, much like they did in South Africa, and without a massive increase in deaths that was expected with a wave this big due to the power of the vaccines and boosters.
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Jan 17, 2022 19:48
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Weasling Weasel posted:Ok, so the point is that it's had a lot of evolutions and off-shoots, but if none have evolved to be particularly more transmittable or deadly, is that an issue? At this rate the cases will have fallen off completed before the end of January, and yes a more deadly or transmittable variant can absolutely happen again for sure, but it's not currently and the impact is that cases are dropping rapidly now, much like they did in South Africa, and without a massive increase in deaths that was expected with a wave this big due to the power of the vaccines and boosters. There have been some experimental lab mutations that are profoundly terrifying - and bear in mind, we were able to call a good deal of Omicron's ability from such research and comparing it to what had been sequenced. https://nextstrain.org/ncov/gisaid/global And Omicron - specifically, the 21m clade - is diversifying at a dramatic rate, considering that it's something like ~20% of the size of 21j, the biggest clade of Delta, in just a month or so. Also, bear in mind that Omicron came from a very different clade then Delta. We may get blindsided again. StratGoatCom fucked around with this message at 20:00 on Jan 17, 2022 |
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Jan 17, 2022 19:55
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Professor Beetus posted:This kind of pithy comment doesn't really do anything to foster discussion, if you'd like to post here please put in some effort and respond to posters directly if you think they are wrongly assuming things. I was overwhelmed by sheer mildness of it all. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 17, 2022 20:07
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StratGoatCom posted:For context, each dot is a distinct sampled genome of the virus. So it says that Omicron is creating mutations at a much higher rate than previous strands? Which could imply it will create a more successful variant much faster than alpha did?
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Jan 17, 2022 20:09
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PostNouveau posted:So it says that Omicron is creating mutations at a much higher rate than previous strands? Mutation is significantly a function of spread, as each host is essentially a set of mutation gatcha pulls, as it gives it a whole bunch of replications, and thus, chances for inaccurate replication. This is before poo poo like recombination, and a whole bunch of other factors, and I won't give an exact 'lies to children' factor. Overall... quite possibility. Now, you have to define 'success'. StratGoatCom fucked around with this message at 20:13 on Jan 17, 2022 |
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Jan 17, 2022 20:10
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Some small evidence to support the idea that vaccination reduces (some) of the more common long COVID symptoms: https://twitter.com/epi_michael/status/1483146045844606984 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.05.22268800v1 I'm not an epidemiologist so can't really comment on how well-designed or robust the study is. Looks like the other big caveats are this is only for some of the most common long COVID symptoms and the error bars are pretty big.
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Jan 17, 2022 20:36
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gay picnic defence posted:There’s a few proposals along those lines. I think someone developed a daughterless mosquito that will eventually breed the species into extinction, from memory it involves that wolbachia bacteria. That species of mosquito could then be replaced by something that doesn’t transmit malaria. I think you might be misremembering the plot of Metal Gear Solid V.
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Jan 17, 2022 20:39
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Epicurius posted:I'm a little....perturbed? Confused? that I'd have to say that I think it's unethical to let a disease kill off a large section of humanity. It seems like the default position and not much open to to debate. Yeah you would think so, but well *gestures to most world governments' policies*
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Jan 17, 2022 20:45
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NYT (no paywall; via Yahoo news) did a deep dive into the CDC under Walensky & her decision last month to go rogue (along with the WH) on shortening the isolation period:quote:
https://news.yahoo.com/cdcs-challenge-grappling-imperfect-science-125242904.html
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Jan 17, 2022 21:22
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VitalSigns posted:Yeah you would think so, but well *gestures to most world governments' policies* I think that's a little uncharitable. I don't think most governments actively want the disease to kill off a large portion of their populations. I think it's a combination of a bunch of factors; trying to balance medical concerns with societal functioning (even during a pandemic, food still has to be grown, supplies still have to be moved back and forth, the needs of the population and government still need to be met), the need to convince the population that restrictions are necessary, bureaucratic inertia, general incompetence and corruption, general poor advanced planning etc.) A lot of it comes down to Hanlon's razor, "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.". One of the things we've seen throughout history is while even governments that aren't great can function adequately during normal measures, they're not always good at responding to crisis situations.. And ultimately, that explains a lot.
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Jan 17, 2022 21:36
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I didn't say they actively want epidemics to kill of most of the population, that's clearly quite silly. I think what most governments actively want is for the disease to interfere with short-term profits as little as possible, the well-being of the population is a distant concern, only protected where it coincides with quarterly profits.
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Jan 17, 2022 21:49
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AndreTheGiantBoned posted:A question about the "endemic disease becomes milder" discourse. What about diseases that have been endemic for... Decades? Centuries? such as polio, measles, syphilis, etc. First off, syphilis is a bacteria, it's not comparable. Secondly, this seems like a pretty disingenuous question. Every single virus is different in their epidemiology on an extremely fundamental level. You cannot compare SARS-CoV-2 to any of those and draw comparisons, for one the virii you mentioned make you immune for life once you catch them and so their potential for infection is limited by comparison. You're basically asking for a breakdown of a number of arbitrary virii in the expectation that the expertise doesn't exist on this forum. It's not really needed though, because I believe the expectation for SARS-CoV-2 is that it will follow the pattern of all previous coronavirii and become a mild endemic infection over time. There is no reason to believe this won't be the case since that seems to be where this family of virii converge to, and it's more likely it'll follow this pattern than be that Really Bad One that kills a bunch of people enmasse every year. qhat fucked around with this message at 22:34 on Jan 17, 2022 |
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Jan 17, 2022 22:31
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VitalSigns posted:I didn't say they actively want epidemics to kill of most of the population, that's clearly quite silly. Maybe, although I work for a state government, and I can tell you that short term business profits isn't really a major concern for most people in my agency, and really people in other agencies I know. I mean, regulatory capture is certainly a thing that happens...where a government body gets unduly influenced by the people it regulates. And, of course, the more money that comes in, the more tax revenue you get, and when the economy is good, everybody likes it. but with the exception maybe of certain nationalized businesses in certain countries, short term business profit isn't the primary goal of government, I don't think, either in theory or practice. I do think there's a concern in a lot of governments to want to see people inconvenienced as little as possible (or at least make sure they don't complain), and there's always the squeaky wheel effect....people who are generally happy with things keep quiet and people who aren't make noise, so they're the ones governments pay attention to, which means a really vocal minority can get their way if they make enough of a ruckus. Epicurius fucked around with this message at 22:37 on Jan 17, 2022 |
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Jan 17, 2022 22:34
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Epicurius posted:Maybe, although I work for a state government, and I can tell you that short term business profits isn't really a major concern for most people in my agency, and really people in other agencies I know. I mean, regulatory capture is certainly a thing that happens...where a government body gets unduly influenced by the people it regulates. And, of course, the more money that comes in, the more tax revenue you get, and when the economy is good, everybody likes it. but with the exception maybe of certain nationalized businesses in certain countries, short term business profit isn't the primary goal of government, I don't think, either in theory or practice. You're just pointing out that civil servants in government agencies don't share the same priorities as politicians who are mostly on the take from business interests. It's nice, but not really relevant to what I said. It's pretty clear what goals opening bars in the middle of a pandemic is intended to accomplish, for example.
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Jan 17, 2022 22:37
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