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Thom12255 posted:Like a lot of BBB is aimmed at parents so I'm sure there are tons of Americans who don't care about it. Parents and wealthy homeowners in states with high property taxes. As Dem strategist Simon Rosenberg has pointed out, programs that serve slices of voters aren't as popular as programs serving most or all voters.
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Jan 18, 2022 16:02
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Willa Rogers posted:Parents and wealthy homeowners in states with high property taxes. I find it unsurprising and very telling that Dem leadership needed a strategist to tell them that people don't like it when you promise to help them and then tell them that they don't need the help enough. And they still don't listen.
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Jan 18, 2022 16:10
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j/k
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Jan 18, 2022 16:15
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Willa Rogers posted:Parents and wealthy homeowners in states with high property taxes.
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Jan 18, 2022 16:15
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Velocity Raptor posted:I find it unsurprising and very telling that Dem leadership needed a strategist to tell them that people don't like it when you promise to help them and then tell them that they don't need the help enough. They seriously believed that running solely on "Orange Man Bad" was all that it was going to take and that they weren't ever going to need to follow that up with actual tangible benefits. The person working 4 jobs and still unable to pay rent isn't going to give a poo poo whether or not Trump faces criminal charges if they're still rear end-broke after an 80 hour work week.
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Jan 18, 2022 16:17
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Willa Rogers posted:Jesus, these polling numbers on the economy from the latest YouGov survey: I understand that people feel their situations are precarious, but I don't think that uneasiness just happens to have fallen extremely disproportionately on Trump voters, which also happens to be the demographic that felt best about the economy a year ago, when everything was pretty much exactly as precarious. Really weird! Willa Rogers posted:Also lol at McConnell.
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Jan 18, 2022 16:19
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Mellow Seas posted:These numbers are largely (though not exclusively) driven by partisan sentiment. Do you honestly think Trump voters are so bad off that it explains 81% of them saying the economy is getting worse rather than 25% of Biden voters? Or do you think they're having the same evidence-free right-wing grievance hissy fit they've been having for the last 13 years? Hmm. If it's simple partisan sentiment then, if I were a Democrat, I'd be concerned, in particular, how many younger voters (a plurality) and lower-income voters (a majority) consider the economy to be getting worse. Because it's doubtful that these groups will be motivated to vote for continued Dem congressional majorities much less another Dem presidency. And that's leaving aside the Black & Hispanic crosstabs about the economy getting worse. Hmm, indeed. Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 16:35 on Jan 18, 2022 |
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Jan 18, 2022 16:33
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Willa Rogers posted:If it's simple partisan sentiment then, if I were a Democrat, I'd be concerned, in particular, how many younger voters (a plurality) and lower-income voters (a majority) consider the economy to be getting worse. Of course I'm loving concerned. It's weird to me that anybody wouldn't be concerned about a nigh-inevitable Republican takeover of the government.
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Jan 18, 2022 16:44
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Let me rephrase that, then: I'd be less inclined to shrug off the results by attributing it almost wholly to partisan sentiment after looking at the crosstabs that I mentioned.
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Jan 18, 2022 16:51
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Willa Rogers posted:Let me rephrase that, then: I'd be less inclined to shrug off the results by attributing it almost wholly to partisan sentiment after looking at the crosstabs that I mentioned. But does nothing on this graph jump out at you?  Weird how the economy has never been "getting better" except from hmm, January 2017 until Covid hit. Also so super weird how the economy just started getting so much worse around early November, 2020, I wonder what happened. Democrats’ perceptions of the economy are somewhat driven by partisan feeling, but Republicans’ almost entirely are, so if you judge things by public opinion surveys, you are going to come to the conclusion that Republicans are better than Democrats, almost 100% of the time. They’re not, in case you needed reminding. e: There is a big difference between May 2021 and now, which reflects a real change in public sentiment. But these numbers are always going to be worse for Democratic presidents than Republican ones. Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 17:05 on Jan 18, 2022 |
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Jan 18, 2022 17:03
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Poverty is a state of mind If you think you are poor and Biden isn't doing anything to help you, you must just be a Republican (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 18, 2022 17:12
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The economy is doing worse. I don't give a gently caress what metrics people are using that tell me otherwise. And I've loving had it up to here with the idea that the stimulus checks and extended UEI created all this inflation. I know that $1400 was a real life changer for me, boy.
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Jan 18, 2022 17:16
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VitalSigns posted:Poverty is a state of mind Do you think Republicans are three times as likely to be struggling as Democrats? e: BiggerBoat posted:The economy is doing worse. I don't give a gently caress what metrics people are using that tell me otherwise. I'm not saying it's amazing, but it seems to be holding steady compared to where it's been my entire adult life - kind of lovely, incredibly unfair, but most people can make it work. Most of our economic problems are pre-existing externalities related to capitalism, not anything specific to the last year. The main problem I see with the economy right now is that a third of the country has an infectious disease, a situation which should improve. And yes I am pissed to loving hell that the administration's main actually-good policy has been immediately tarnished as causing inflation, when the causes of inflation are actually very incredibly obviously supply-side, because I don't think $1400 checks made prices skyrocket in loving Europe. Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 17:28 on Jan 18, 2022 |
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Jan 18, 2022 17:20
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Mellow Seas posted:Do you think Republicans are three times as likely to be struggling as Democrats? People who identify as Republicans vs people who identify as Democrats? Because yeah, I can believe it. The American poor are overwhelmingly nonvoters.
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Jan 18, 2022 17:21
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VitalSigns posted:Poverty is a state of mind Man, tell that to my patients who are dying at home from highly treatable diseases because they can't afford medication in our capitalist utopia.
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Jan 18, 2022 17:21
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BiggerBoat posted:The economy is doing worse. I don't give a gently caress what metrics people are using that tell me otherwise. Yeah, the only people doing great in this economy are big money and investors. Everywhere else: Logistics is crashing, groceries are getting harder to find, inflation is up, businesses are purposefully raising prices to maximize profit in a critical time for consumers.
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Jan 18, 2022 17:27
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Mellow Seas posted:Do you think Republicans are three times as likely to be struggling as Democrats? I think it's irrelevant. Look at the crosstabs 55% of people making under $50k say the economy is getting worse 28% of Democrats 58% of independents Who cares if comfortable Republican realtors are lying, the numbers are apocalyptic even if you ignore them
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Jan 18, 2022 17:30
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VitalSigns posted:Who cares if comfortable Republican realtors are lying, the numbers are apocalyptic even if you ignore them They're not apocalyptic. Look at the graph. There was no apocalypse after the summer of 2011, when the numbers were unambiguously worse, and we didn't even have a pandemic to recover from. In fact the President won reelection 15 months later. The numbers will improve. And they will still be artificially lowered by partisanship, something that has to be taken into account when we are evaluating them. It doesn't mean the numbers are useless, or that they can't tell us about real problems, but they are clearly skewed. Unless you just think Trump was an unparalleled steward of the economy.
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Jan 18, 2022 17:34
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CommieGIR posted:Yeah, the only people doing great in this economy are big money and investors. Everywhere else: Logistics is crashing, groceries are getting harder to find, inflation is up, businesses are purposefully raising prices to maximize profit in a critical time for consumers. Pretty much this. Those who do the analyses and write the reports are at the top looking downward. And just like looking into a scum covered pond, it looks like the entire thing is green. But once you go below and see it from the point of view of those that actually have to live in it, you'll see that it's actually nothing apart from the layer concentrated at the top. Logistics is the main driver of the inflation right now. There are shortages everywhere, and businesses are raising their prices to When people ask for more assistance, the gov't says "No, you already got help, and you're just going to spend it on bills again instead of an xbox or whatever." When finally shown to them that it's actually businesses that are causing inflation by raising their prices (see: the meat industry), the government decides to finally help... by giving money to meat businesses to try and promote competition.
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Jan 18, 2022 17:41
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Mellow Seas posted:They're not apocalyptic. Look at the graph. There was no apocalypse after the summer of 2011, when the numbers were unambiguously worse, and we didn't even have a pandemic to recover from. In fact the President won reelection 15 months later. If the economy recovers in 9 months and it goes to improving ordinary people's lives instead of all getting socked away in the Caymans that will be good news for Democrats but they don't seem to be really encouraging that to happen with policy or anything
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Jan 18, 2022 17:46
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Mellow Seas posted:But does nothing on this graph jump out at you? Comparing the R/D trendlines it does kinda look like Republicans are more prone to saying things are getting worse when Dems hold the presidency than the reverse, but that both are uniformly partisan when it comes to saying things are getting better while their guy isn't in the white house. But what really stands out to me, if I'm reading their crosstabs right, is that about half their survey group is people who called themselves independents or didn't answer. I'm not sure we can draw D vs R conclusions from the overall graph.
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Jan 18, 2022 17:46
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VitalSigns posted:There wasn't an election in summer 2011 and the polling got better by the end of 2012 There's no election right now, either, so polling can get better, and probably will. It is disappointing that we are unlikely to get any significant policies passed in the next year, but that does not preclude an improvement in these numbers. After all, what policy made peoples' impressions of the economy improve between August '11 and March '12, or November '16 and January '17, or January '18 and December '18? I doubt the numbers would ever improve enough to keep the house (even if they did pass a strong BBB bill), but enough to give them a fighting chance in the Senate, perhaps.
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Jan 18, 2022 17:53
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This seems like it could be big. I imagine immunity isn't given unless the prosecution is getting something solid. Also looks like there may be some obstruction and witness tampering going on? https://www.cbsnews.com/news/matt-gaetz-ex-girlfriend-immunity-testimony-sexy-trafficking-probe/ quote:Prosecutors granted immunity to an ex-girlfriend of Representative Matt Gaetz before she testified last week in front of a federal grand jury hearing evidence in the investigation of the congressman, according to a source familiar with the matter.
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Jan 18, 2022 17:56
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Mellow Seas posted:They're not apocalyptic. Look at the graph. There was no apocalypse after the summer of 2011, when the numbers were unambiguously worse, and we didn't even have a pandemic to recover from. In fact the President won reelection 15 months later. I'd like to point out as a counterpoint here that in a lot of the country, things were indeed quite apocalyptic post-2010. Wasn't the final tally that the Dems lost ~1200 state and national level seats between 2010-2016? That's a lot of states going from having a perennially competitive Dem alternative to becoming a one party state, trust me! That they were saved at the Presidential level exclusively really does seem like they were just lucky that Romney was such a horrible candidate
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Jan 18, 2022 17:57
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Epic High Five posted:I'd like to point out as a counterpoint here that in a lot of the country, things were indeed quite apocalyptic post-2010. Wasn't the final tally that the Dems lost ~1200 state and national level seats between 2010-2016? That's a lot of states going from having a perennially competitive Dem alternative to becoming a one party state, trust me! That they were saved at the Presidential level exclusively really does seem like they were just lucky that Romney was such a horrible candidate Hey listen, buddy, this is Koos Group's D&D, don't make me bust out a Webster's dictionary definition of "apocalyptic."  (Those state-level losses were and have been devastating. They are probably reversible in most places, although Wisconsin is probably hosed forever.)
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Jan 18, 2022 17:58
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Velocity Raptor posted:This seems like it could be big. I imagine immunity isn't given unless the prosecution is getting something solid. Also looks like there may be some obstruction and witness tampering going on? he's gotten away with worse stuff, this will be nothing.
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Jan 18, 2022 18:01
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1st_Panzer_Div. posted:*Looks in mirror* I get being probed here, what I don't get it is why Sarcasto's is making things up, and literally pulling out Crowder internet meme arguments, is considered good faith? Either way I'll go back to not touching D&D, just super weird. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 18, 2022 18:01
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Mellow Seas posted:Hey listen, buddy, this is Koos Group's D&D, don't make me bust out a Webster's dictionary definition of "apocalyptic." Hey now you can have regional, specific, artisanal apocalypses, though I regret now not using the much more fun to say "catastrophic implosion", my apologies I think Michigan MIGHT be, WI is probably screwed because 2011 for them was the party just withdrawing entirely at a critical moment. PA I can see, and uhhhhh....I guess CO is pretty blue now? I'm dubious about AZ and GA sticking around as blue states without a voting rights bill with some mass on it which seems unlikely
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Jan 18, 2022 18:10
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Describing 2010 as apocalyptic sounds bad because the sky didn't fall in response, but it may have been a delayed reaction because it's those same Republican state legislatures that are powering forward with election fraud and gerrymandering initiatives.
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Jan 18, 2022 18:15
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Velocity Raptor posted:This seems like it could be big. I imagine immunity isn't given unless the prosecution is getting something solid. Also looks like there may be some obstruction and witness tampering going on? Here's a story from before she got the deal, with more details on the kind of testimony his ex might be able to offer: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/06/02/gaetz-obstruction-federal-probe-491705 quote:The witness in question was one of a handful of women who entered Gaetz’s orbit via his one-time “wingman,” former Seminole County, Fla., tax collector Joel Greenberg, who pleaded guilty last month to a host of crimes, including sex-trafficking a 17-year-old in 2017. Three people on the call, two are cooperating with the feds, and one might've been both a victim herself and recorded some conversations. Not a good spot for him to be in.
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Jan 18, 2022 18:15
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That FTC & DOJ joint presser is about updated merger guidelines, this comes on the heels of a Friday ruling against Vyera and also increased pressure pointed at Facebook/Meta.
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Jan 18, 2022 18:28
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Mellow Seas posted:
Could just be profession, my age and my degree but nobody I know seems to have any money, everyone seems to be pinching pennies and gambling on scratch off tickets and all the available jobs that I SEE are either in sales, retail or some shady MLM poo poo and you're lucky if any of it pays $15/HR. I realize it's anecdotal but even the people I know with decent jobs feel like their skating on the edge. I'm glad that things are going well for you though (honestly) but they're not in my circles and that data that Willa posted seems to bear me out.
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Jan 18, 2022 18:59
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BiggerBoat posted:Could just be profession, my age and my degree but nobody I know seems to have any money, everyone seems to be pinching pennies and gambling on scratch off tickets and all the available jobs that I SEE are either in sales, retail or some shady MLM poo poo and you're lucky if any of it pays $15/HR. I feel like it's wrong when anyone tries to paint it as just the "economy is good/bad". I'd argue that the current economy is good on its face but obviously fragile and that fragility is causing a lot of problems. The people with decent jobs are more aware than ever that the decent jobs go away and there is no safety net. We also have that dichotomy of "the economy is good" and "covid devastated multiple industries" where you still have lots of low paying jobs that just disappeared.
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Jan 18, 2022 19:07
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Order your tests now. https://special.usps.com/testkits https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1483502111908417540
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Jan 18, 2022 19:13
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BiggerBoat posted:Could just be profession, my age and my degree but nobody I know seems to have any money, everyone seems to be pinching pennies and gambling on scratch off tickets and all the available jobs that I SEE are either in sales, retail or some shady MLM poo poo and you're lucky if any of it pays $15/HR. Healthcare jobs are offering obscene sign-on bonuses right now, but I've heard and seen enough horror stories that I'd rather work sales than be a nurse at this point. Laboratory (both clinical and research) and pharmaceutical manufacturing jobs are also hiring like mad and increasing pay and have substantially better working conditions, but are somewhat location-limited.
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Jan 18, 2022 19:21
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BiggerBoat posted:Could just be profession, my age and my degree but nobody I know seems to have any money, everyone seems to be pinching pennies and gambling on scratch off tickets and all the available jobs that I SEE are either in sales, retail or some shady MLM poo poo and you're lucky if any of it pays $15/HR. The crosstabs don't suggest much regional variation, but I have to wonder if maybe state government has something to do with it. The minimum wage in Connecticut is $14/hr, and yes the cost of living is higher but that minimum is 40% higher than Florida's (with easier access to subsidized healthcare and other assistance), so I think it helps people at the lower end of the scale. Northeastern people are seriously ornery as gently caress (I'm always blown away whenever I leave the area how laid back everybody else is), so that might explain why their numbers are roughly as pessimistic as the south or midwest's. I don't know, polling "how do you feel about [x]" in a country that demands higher taxes on the rich and also harsh crackdowns on immigration and wants Medicare for all but also please allow private insurance and a million other self-contradictory opinions is going to give you some weird results. I remember Leon posting polls showing a sharp (and unprecedented) disconnect between "how do you feel about your personal economic situation" and "how do you feel about the economy generally" but it doesn't appear the YouGov poll Willa shared includes the former question. e: There is a tracker for that: https://today.yougov.com/topics/economy/trackers/us-personal-finance Currently 46% "about the same", 31% "worse", 17% "better"; those numbers have also unsurprisingly gotten worse since the spring, when worse and better were roughly equal at ~20%. But overall, 63% say "about the same or better" of their own personal finances, only 37% say the same about "the economy". Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 20:18 on Jan 18, 2022 |
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Jan 18, 2022 19:57
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Gumball Gumption posted:I feel like it's wrong when anyone tries to paint it as just the "economy is good/bad". I'd argue that the current economy is good on its face but obviously fragile and that fragility is causing a lot of problems. The people with decent jobs are more aware than ever that the decent jobs go away and there is no safety net. We also have that dichotomy of "the economy is good" and "covid devastated multiple industries" where you still have lots of low paying jobs that just disappeared. The fragility pitch is certainly one of the more sensical and less... troubling explanations for the prevalence of "I'm doing very well but the economy is terrible". It also, as you say, suggests a policy solution for that anxiety: make our safety net suck less.
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Jan 18, 2022 22:00
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Youth Decay posted:Ivy-League educated, fat, not smart, not honest, bad haircut and ill-fitting suit all describe Trump to a T though. He cheated at Penn (Wharton).
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Jan 18, 2022 22:18
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GreyjoyBastard posted:The fragility pitch is certainly one of the more sensical and less... troubling explanations for the prevalence of "I'm doing very well but the economy is terrible". It also, as you say, suggests a policy solution for that anxiety: make our safety net suck less. It's also honestly just my own personal view. I'm your average computer toucher. Things are going good. The pandemic did not hurt my financial situation. My economy is good. The majority of my friends are working artists. Their jobs all got destroyed. Some of them have been unemployed for 2 years now. My economy is good, the economy is fragile, broken, and a mess for a lot of people. I'm very cognizant of the fact that a different event, different circumstances, could put me in a situation where my industry falls apart. And overall I think economy questions are so broad and undefined that it's more like trying to ask the nation "Hey bud, how's it going?". It's more a question about if you feel secure, if you feel provided for because the ability to get what you need and feel like you can continue to do that is how the average person is going to measure the economy. Gumball Gumption fucked around with this message at 22:23 on Jan 18, 2022 |
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Jan 18, 2022 22:20
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USPS is shipping free test kits now. Site went up a day early. https://special.usps.com/testkits It took me less than 10 seconds to order 4 kits. If you want test kits, then probably good to grab them now. This is part of the 500 million they are mailing for free, but not sure how long the first batch will last or how big it is. Limit is 4 per household per order for the first batch.
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