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NIMBY?
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Mr. Fall Down Terror
Jan 24, 2018

by Fluffdaddy
the thing about malls is that they're basically a modern form of the shopping arcade, which predates cars by a lot

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arcade_(architecture)

"we put a bunch of shops next to each other and roofed it over to keep the rain out" isn't an idea that requires innovations in tax law to prosper

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5i0QdBlX1c

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Magic Hate Ball
May 6, 2007

ha ha ha!
you've already paid for this

Mooseontheloose posted:

Yah, I think part of this is to (at least where I live) is also the lack of mass transit interconnection. I live in Massachusetts but buses outside of 128 are practically non-existent and DO NOT connect to the surrounding communities. I live 5 minutes from a commuter rail, 20 mins from another but there is no bus route connecting these two points which could connect three towns. Even MBTA busses in the Boston area start to really slow down after 7:00 so you are waiting 45 minutes sometimes to get to your apartment.

People like the quietness of the suburbs and trees but also want to be able to access everything to your point.

This made visiting my dad a huge pain in the rear end when I used to live in Seattle, because he was way out in the nowhereseville suburbs and getting to him was a three and a half affair with four bus transfers, as opposed to a fifty-five minute car ride. The funniest part is that probably two thirds of that travel time was spent getting from the long-distance bus terminal to his house, because actual connectivity within the suburb itself is just so, so lovely.

Solaris 2.0
May 14, 2008

Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:



this is why im suspicious of upzoning proposals. why would we trust the free market to build affordable housing when what the free market currently builds as affordable housing are cheap cookie cutter suburbs marching out towards exurbia? ah, but better kinds of housing are illegal, surely if we legalize it the market will choose the more expensive, less popular option, for reasons



It's not just "the free market" though when it comes to zoning. You literally cannot build anything more than a Single Family Home in most of the zoned residential land in the US. It doesn't matter if it's a private developer, a non-profit, a private financer, the government, or whatever. If that area is zoned for Single Family Homes only, then Single Family Homes are all that will get built. This is why we have a missing middle problem in the US.

If socialists suddenly win control of America and say "we spend whatever money necessary to build affordable housing" in the US. Then all that gets built in most of the zoned land is........more single family homes. Only after you change that zoning are you allowed to then build something a crazy sounding as a Duplex or Rowhome.

Solaris 2.0 fucked around with this message at 22:36 on Jan 18, 2022

Cicero
Dec 17, 2003

Jumpjet, melta, jumpjet. Repeat for ten minutes or until victory is assured.

Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:

this is why im suspicious of upzoning proposals. why would we trust the free market to build affordable housing when what the free market currently builds as affordable housing are cheap cookie cutter suburbs marching out towards exurbia? ah, but better kinds of housing are illegal, surely if we legalize it the market will choose the more expensive, less popular option, for reasons
Framing it as the 'free market' choosing sprawl is silly when you consider how things actually work and the rules at play. In most cases, building dense infill in the city is either illegal or much harder by virtue of rules that allow nosy neighbors to throw up roadblocks. Obviously developers want to make as much money as easily as possible, so if you want dense infill then make dense infill the easy thing and sprawl the hard thing that requires justification. The market can absolutely create dense infill, just look at basically any non-anglo country.

In any case, this is a testable hypothesis: do growing metros that actually (some) permit dense infill get it? Being from the bay area, it looks like the answer is 'yes', even in the cases where the locals make it a pain in the rear end; presumably you'd get even more if it wasn't a pain in the rear end, where even 100% affordable housing for seniors by non-profits finds objections by local NIMBY's.

Of course, it may require rule changes at a higher level than cities or counties to get that, like at the state level. I know California has passed some rules in the last several years pushing for more density -- it hasn't been nearly what's required, and some of the laws are crippled in dumb ways, but it's still been movement in the right direction at least.

Now, more public housing is definitely needed too, but in that case you'd still need upzoning and easier development rules for infill.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:

its a tax-wonky hypothesis for sure but im suspicious of just-so stories like this. it reads more like the journalist saying "check out this weird thing i just learned about called real estate depreciation!" and turned it into an article

i think the popularity of malls are explained by it being an automotive mode adapation to building commercial spaces in suburban areas, and dead/abandoned malls are because these spaces gradually reached a saturation point and became overbuilt, at a time when more retailing shifted to online delivery and not in person sales. dead malls, dead big boxes, dead downtowns, all of which are essentially because of a decline in commercial traffic for one reason or another

Nobody was arguing malls wouldn't exist without tax shenanigans. They certainly exist outside the United States, particularly in other car-loving countries such as Cold America and Dangerous America. Just not to such an extent, under less construction-friendly taxation schemes.



It's kind of a commercial equivalent of how Japanese homes depreciate like cars, only the difference is the old weird homes get knocked down and replaced with new wacky houses.

Mr. Fall Down Terror
Jan 24, 2018

by Fluffdaddy

Solaris 2.0 posted:

It's not just "the free market" though when it comes to zoning. You literally cannot build anything more than a Single Family Home in most of the zoned residential land in the US. It doesn't matter if it's a private developer, a non-profit, a private financer, the government, or whatever. If that area is zoned for Single Family Homes only, then Single Family Homes are all that will get built. This is why we have a missing middle problem in the US.

it's not realistic to expect predominantly suburban areas full of detached homes to meaningfully densify on any useful timeframe, the demolition and lot assembly costs are too high. generally what one sees in blanket upzoning is a lack of response in the market or a continuation of what they were building anyway, luxury condos and townhouses

exclusionary zoning is bad for a lot of reasons but lack of missing middle housing is not one of them - anything from duplexes to low rise apartments is perfectly compatible with automotive suburbia. name a suburb and i'll find some missing middle housing in it

Cicero posted:

Framing it as the 'free market' choosing sprawl is silly when you consider how things actually work and the rules at play. In most cases, building dense infill in the city is either illegal or much harder by virtue of rules that allow nosy neighbors to throw up roadblocks. Obviously developers want to make as much money as easily as possible, so if you want dense infill then make dense infill the easy thing and sprawl the hard thing that requires justification. The market can absolutely create dense infill, just look at basically any non-anglo country.

:shrug: dense infill is happening all over my city so i can only say that when it comes to handwavey generalizations and anecdotal observations, mine contradict yours

it's also not automatically a bad thing for nosy neighbors to throw up roadblocks? this is one of the tools by which residents fight gentrification. i don't get this argument that we can somehow socialistically cut regulations and enable the free market to work its unfettered will for the benefit of the people, in a socialist way. this feels to me more like a desperation move and a misunderstanding of the tools currently available to construct affordable housing

Solaris 2.0
May 14, 2008

Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:

it's not realistic to expect predominantly suburban areas full of detached homes to meaningfully densify on any useful timeframe, the demolition and lot assembly costs are too high. generally what one sees in blanket upzoning is a lack of response in the market or a continuation of what they were building anyway, luxury condos and townhouses

exclusionary zoning is bad for a lot of reasons but lack of missing middle housing is not one of them - anything from duplexes to low rise apartments is perfectly compatible with automotive suburbia. name a suburb and i'll find some missing middle housing in it



You literally cannot build anything more than a single family home on most residential zoned land. Yea no kidding you can find me a single random apartment that was probably built before the zoning went into affect. Also yes, neighbors throwing up roadblocks to affordable housing is bad because it prevents housing from being built where it needs to be built.

*snipe edit*

We're not talking luxury apartments in a majority-minority neighborhood here, we're talking wealthy home-owners explicitly preventing affordable housing from being built to keep the poors out.

quote:


but so what? are you just demanding that single family housing be banned or something?

And no, stop this. You can build neighborhoods with a mix of homes and it gives people more options. My neighborhood for example has a mix of section 8 housing, garden apartments, townhomes (I live in one) and single family homes all ringed by parks, and is connected by bus stops, and a retail center. It is an active, lively neighborhood that is far more affordable than others around it that are only SFH, and as a result, is actually also majority-minority.

quote:


there are very few places where anyone's trying to build affordable housing near wealthy home owners anyway. like this is a very "only in southern california" argument. if you have a specific example in mind please share it because otherwise i think we're going to talk past each other with different sets of assumptions about the cities in our minds

Also this is incredibly false and wrong. Affordable housing is being blocked in many, many places in this country. I don't feel like doing homework for you, but you can use the power of Google to see why you are wrong.

Solaris 2.0 fucked around with this message at 23:15 on Jan 18, 2022

Mr. Fall Down Terror
Jan 24, 2018

by Fluffdaddy

Solaris 2.0 posted:

You literally cannot build anything more than a single family home on most residential zoned land.

:eng101: in a very pedantic sense, conditional uses exist

but so what? are you just demanding that single family housing be banned or something? a lot of this exclusionary zoning exists because it is low effort, but once the area is developed its not like changing the zoning is going to tear existing structures down and rebuilt them simcityishly. overlay zoning exists, variances exist, zoning designations change all the time. there's a certain assumption that if we simply got rid of the law which caused the problem, the problem will also go away, and i just dont think that follows through. if you want to significantly densify a residential suburb full of detached homes, you're going to have to put down some physical infrastructure to stimulate that market development, and even then you're just going to end up with bigger detached homes, maybe some growth in ADUs or pockets of townhouses, etc

Solaris 2.0 posted:

We're not talking luxury apartments in a majority-minority neighborhood here, we're talking wealthy home-owners explicitly preventing affordable housing from being built to keep the poors out.

there are very few places where anyone's trying to build affordable housing near wealthy home owners anyway. like this is a very "only in southern california" argument. if you have a specific example in mind please share it because otherwise i think we're going to talk past each other with different sets of assumptions about the cities in our minds. you may not be talking about luxury apartments in a majority-minority neighborhood, i certainly am and its a big problem where i live

Mr. Fall Down Terror fucked around with this message at 23:14 on Jan 18, 2022

Cicero
Dec 17, 2003

Jumpjet, melta, jumpjet. Repeat for ten minutes or until victory is assured.

Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:

it's not realistic to expect predominantly suburban areas full of detached homes to meaningfully densify on any useful timeframe, the demolition and lot assembly costs are too high. generally what one sees in blanket upzoning is a lack of response in the market or a continuation of what they were building anyway, luxury condos and townhouses
"Luxury" is just a marketing term, it doesn't mean anything substantial. And yeah new buildings are more expensive than used ones, just like almost any other product, this isn't surprising. You can still get more reasonable housing prices with enough housing.

quote:

exclusionary zoning is bad for a lot of reasons but lack of missing middle housing is not one of them - anything from duplexes to low rise apartments is perfectly compatible with automotive suburbia. name a suburb and i'll find some missing middle housing in it
I mean you will if it used to be legal and some buildings stayed up, sure. I can say the neighborhood I grew up in in Santa Clara didn't have "missing middle" housing; there were single family homes and apartment complexes (and the occasional mobile home park) with obvious divides between those. On some level I can understand not wanting the apartment complexes, because in the US they're generally ugly as hell, Munich was such a breath of fresh air when it came to different housing forms blending together and everything looking nice.

quote:

:shrug: dense infill is happening all over my city so i can only say that when it comes to handwavey generalizations and anecdotal observations, mine contradict yours
It's not happening at zero, it's just that in basically every US city that's growing, it's not happening enough to meet demand.

quote:

it's also not automatically a bad thing for nosy neighbors to throw up roadblocks? this is one of the tools by which residents fight gentrification. i don't get this argument that we can somehow socialistically cut regulations and enable the free market to work its unfettered will for the benefit of the people, in a socialist way. this feels to me more like a desperation move and a misunderstanding of the tools currently available to construct affordable housing
Gentrification would be much less of an issue with enough housing and better rules. In the US, the distinction between rich and poor neighborhoods is extremely stark and obvious. When I lived in Munich, it was difficult to tell how affluent most areas were, even if you were looking real hard, because most areas were just sort of vaguely middling in prosperity. You didn't see the richie rich purely single family home enclaves you do in the states -- or at least, I never saw any -- because that type of zoning doesn't exist there, you can always build at least some multi-family housing, which means it's harder to keep up that kind of invisibly gated community.

Personally I'm very much for public housing too, but it's a fact that you can at least makes things less bad by simply making it legal and easy to build more housing. Tokyo is a good example of this: it's not exactly cheap, but given its population size and national prominence within Japan -- it's basically like if you combined NYC and SF and LA together -- it's way cheaper than you'd expect, at somewhere of a third to half the rent prices of NYC.

quote:

are you just demanding that single family housing be banned or something?
Are you somehow not aware that upzoning only means that higher density housing is permitted, not that it's required?

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
Check out the video from the blog posted earlier:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XgucvsVEigA

There are hardly any cars there of course, and yet the main road is huuuge. Like way wider than what you'd see elsewhere. Private horse carriage ownership ruined everything :argh:


Also I think if you talk to people outside of the urbanist bubble, most will be happy with the current suburban situation, so of course changing that would be next to impossible due to their objections.

Cicero
Dec 17, 2003

Jumpjet, melta, jumpjet. Repeat for ten minutes or until victory is assured.

Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:

there are very few places where anyone's trying to build affordable housing near wealthy home owners anyway. like this is a very "only in southern california" argument. if you have a specific example in mind please share it because otherwise i think we're going to talk past each other with different sets of assumptions about the cities in our minds. you may not be talking about luxury apartments in a majority-minority neighborhood, i certainly am and its a big problem where i live
I literally just posted an example in SF lol. Obviously the problem is most acute in very expensive metros, sure, but you're kidding yourself if you think nearby single family homeowners don't scream bloody murder any time someone tries to build an apartment building nearby. Or do you think they wouldn't do this if it was public housing instead? From their perspective that'd be even worse and they'd scream yet harder.

Mr. Fall Down Terror
Jan 24, 2018

by Fluffdaddy

Cicero posted:

"Luxury" is just a marketing term, it doesn't mean anything substantial. And yeah new buildings are more expensive than used ones, just like almost any other product, this isn't surprising. You can still get more reasonable housing prices with enough housing.

Gentrification would be much less of an issue with enough housing and better rules.

the united states has NEVER provided adequate housing for the poor through free market provision alone. there's a lot of problems with assuming that the housing market works on a simple supply and demand model. housing is hedonic, housing is subject to induced and latent demand, you can easily drive the price of housing UP by building more of it. in order to meaningfully reduce housing prices from a supply side standpoint you'd have to build far more housing than the free market has ever built on a yearly basis, has ever been capable of building, more than is possible to be built through stimulating development by tampering with regulations

exclusionary zoning needs to be killed on its own merit, not on the basis that firm deregulation is the proper way to go about inducing trickle-down housing

Solaris 2.0 posted:

And no, stop this. You can build neighborhoods with a mix of homes and it gives people more options. My neighborhood for example has a mix of section 8 housing, garden apartments, townhomes (I live in one) and single family homes all ringed by parks, and is connected by bus stops, and a retail center. It is an active, lively neighborhood that is far more affordable than others around it that are only SFH, and as a result, is actually also majority-minority.

i kinda think that the neighborhood you're describing is mostly zoned for detached single family housing and that the reality of how these neighborhoods shake out doesn't line up with the worse one you're thinking of, wherever it is

Solaris 2.0 posted:

Also this is incredibly false and wrong. Affordable housing is being blocked in many, many places in this country. I don't feel like doing homework for you, but you can use the power of Google to see why you are wrong.

:shrug: suit yourself, i only asked you to substantiate your argument but if you don't want to, no harm no foul. i know that NIMBYs exist and block housing, i'd just prefer we have a more interesting conversation than yelling about stereotypes that aren't participating in this conversation

Mr. Fall Down Terror fucked around with this message at 23:33 on Jan 18, 2022

Cicero
Dec 17, 2003

Jumpjet, melta, jumpjet. Repeat for ten minutes or until victory is assured.

Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:

the united states has NEVER provided adequate housing for the poor through free market provision alone. there's a lot of problems with assuming that the housing market works on a simple supply and demand model. housing is hedonic, housing is subject to induced and latent demand, you can easily drive the price of housing UP by building more of it. in order to meaningfully reduce housing prices from a supply side standpoint you'd have to build far more housing than the free market has ever built, has ever been capable of building, more than is possible to be built through free market means alone
Wow, there's a lot of problems with this post.

First off, it's inaccurate. While a particular new development will probably be more expensive than what it replaced -- because the new building is new, rather than old -- the effect on the metro as a whole, and even the neighborhood can be seen, and is well known at this point: https://www.lewis.ucla.edu/research/market-rate-development-impacts/

quote:

Researchers have long known that building new market-rate housing helps
stabilize housing prices at the metro area level, but until recently it hasn’t been
possible to empirically determine the impact of market-rate development on
buildings in their immediate vicinity. The question of neighborhood-level impacts
of market-rate development has been hotly debated but under-studied.

Taking advantage of improved data sources and methods, researchers in the past
two years have released six working papers on the impact of new market-rate
development on neighborhood rents. Five find that market-rate housing makes
nearby housing more affordable across the income distribution of rental units,
and one finds mixed results.

quote:

To be clear, this debate is not about whether new housing can reduce housing prices overall. At
this point, that idea isn’t really in doubt. There’s good reason to believe that in regions with high
housing demand, building more housing can help keep the prices of existing housing down. In
their Supply Skepticism paper from 2018, Vicki Been, Ingrid Gould Ellen, and Katherine O’Regan
offer an excellent introduction to the broader question of how market-rate development affects
affordability. Citing numerous individual studies and reviews of dozens more, they conclude that
“the preponderance of the evidence shows that restricting supply increases housing prices and
that adding supply would help to make housing more affordable.”

Since that article came out two years ago, at least six working papers have been released that
examine the connections between market-rate housing production and affordability at the
neighborhood level. Four of the papers conclude that market-rate development makes nearby
housing more, not less, affordable. The fifth paper looks at rents across entire cities rather than at
the neighborhood level, but finds that new development causes rents to fall for units across the
income distribution. Findings in the sixth paper are mixed, and offer some reason to think new
development makes nearby housing more expensive. Although the papers await peer review,
and readers should bear that in mind, the importance and near-unanimity of their findings makes
discussing them worthwhile.
Secondly, I've repeatedly stated that I'm also for more public housing, and pointed out that public housing itself would also need upzoning and streamlined rules anyway, because it would encounter the same problems that new private developments do, except moreso. You've completely ignored this point.

Third, we weren't talking about housing just for the poor; the working and middle classes also struggle to afford housing in many areas, especially areas with the best local economies, and the market could handle making affordable housing for those groups (though to be sure, it depends somewhat on the specific metro area). And in any case, making things less bad with more density is still a win, one that actually helps public housing in multiple different ways; for example, the more people are used to density in general, the less likely they're going to object to dense public housing.

quote:

exclusionary zoning needs to be killed on its own merit, not on the basis that firm deregulation is the proper way to go about inducing trickle-down housing
Part of why exclusionary zoning needs to die is certainly that it is economic segregation. It's invisibly gated communities enforced by the government. You can no more be progressive and for economically segregationist zoning than you can be progressive and for racially segregated neighborhoods or schools. To defend this kind of zoning is to declare yourself an avowed and unapologetic classist.

edit: Like, I think we're in agreement that for the truly poor, you need public housing, and lots of it. But having larger supplies of housing from the market is still useful, for other groups and other reasons. I don't really see a reason not to simply do both, and in any case I'm not sure that's even possible, because public housing would need a bunch of upzones anyway.

Cicero fucked around with this message at 23:44 on Jan 18, 2022

Solaris 2.0
May 14, 2008

Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:


i kinda think that the neighborhood you're describing is mostly zoned for detached single family housing and that the reality of how these neighborhoods shake out doesn't line up with the worse one you're thinking of, wherever it is



The zoning in my neighborhood is a special exemption and even so, the zoning has since been tighten to prevent additional housing from being built.

Almost Every other area is zoned exclusively SHF. It’s why all the apartments/ townhomes are all 30+ year old but we’re still building McMansions in tear down lots.

Mr. Fall Down Terror
Jan 24, 2018

by Fluffdaddy

Cicero posted:

First off, it's inaccurate. While a particular new development will probably be more expensive than what it replaced -- because the new building is new, rather than old -- the effect on the metro as a whole, and even the neighborhood can be seen, and is well known at this point: https://www.lewis.ucla.edu/research/market-rate-development-impacts/

this is definitely not a settled question http://econ.geo.uu.nl/peeg/peeg1914.pdf

Cicero posted:

Secondly, I've repeatedly stated that I'm also for more public housing, and pointed out that public housing itself would also need upzoning and streamlined rules anyway, because it would encounter the same problems that new private developments do, except moreso.

do you think that upzoning just means changing zoning designations?

Cicero posted:

To defend this kind of zoning is to declare yourself an avowed and unapologetic classist.

i literally said "exclusionary zoning should be killed" so i dunno who this comment is supposed to address, but it isn't me

my main criticism of upzoning advocacy is that upzoning is low hanging fruit. it is easy to advocate for, but it is likely to be ineffective. i could hit my hand with a hammer to lower rents but i won't do this because it is ineffective, even though its within my power to do and i'd be actively doing something about housing costs (beating my fingers with a hammer)

Solaris 2.0 posted:

Almost Every other area is zoned exclusively SHF. It’s why all the apartments/ townhomes are all 30+ year old but we’re still building McMansions in tear down lots.

it is way more profitable to build a mcmansion than anything else. like yeah, we can say this is what the law permits, but if the law didn't permit the most profitable development, how quickly do you think the law would change?

Cugel the Clever
Apr 5, 2009
I LOVE AMERICA AND CAPITALISM DESPITE BEING POOR AS FUCK. I WILL NEVER RETIRE BUT HERE'S ANOTHER 200$ FOR UKRAINE, SLAVA

Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:

it's also not automatically a bad thing for nosy neighbors to throw up roadblocks? this is one of the tools by which residents fight gentrification. i don't get this argument that we can somehow socialistically cut regulations and enable the free market to work its unfettered will for the benefit of the people, in a socialist way. this feels to me more like a desperation move and a misunderstanding of the tools currently available to construct affordable housing
Except the handful of neighbors that typically turn up to veto any project frequently aren't fighting gentrification and are rarely representative of the community at large. The typical profile is well-off, white, retired Boomer house owners who will in one meeting decry a market-rate building for being unaffordable and in the next categorically reject a 100% affordable building, complaining "this isn't the kind of neighborhood for those people". Our political system also fails to give voice to hypothetical residents: those who would make a neighborhood their home if only it were affordable. Instead, the artificial constraints on number of homes filters out newcomers by price point, producing exactly the gentrification you claim you're arguing against.

Nobody here's talking about an urgent need to upzone the 'burbs and the 'xurbs, so much as the urban centers where still the majority of residential land is locked into exclusionary, SFH-only zoning.

Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:

my main criticism of upzoning advocacy is that upzoning is low hanging fruit. it is easy to advocate for, but it is likely to be ineffective. i could hit my hand with a hammer to lower rents but i won't do this because it is ineffective, even though its within my power to do and i'd be actively doing something about housing costs (beating my fingers with a hammer)
If it's "low-hanging fruit", lets seize it quick and move on to the other big wins that can flow from it. It'd be a lot better than griping about it not 100% solving a problem while never meaningfully pursuing alternatives.

mobby_6kl posted:

Also I think if you talk to people outside of the urbanist bubble, most will be happy with the current suburban situation, so of course changing that would be next to impossible due to their objections.
They're less "happy with the suburbs" than they are "unfamiliar with and fearful of the alternatives", thanks in no small part to literally a century of propaganda castigating cities as high-crime, multi-ethnic hellscapes where no responsible member of the white middle class would dare try to raise a family. Suburban life is preferred because it's familiar—its broad array of shortcomings are taken as fundamental laws of the universe because they rarely get the opportunity to experience an alternative. And, when they do, they often love it, occasionally flocking to quaint, walkable, bustling little main streets full of small shops and tasty independent restaurants for a weekend, but, because it's an "outing", they fail to let the experience raise questions on the 30+ minute drive home about the land use decisions they and those around them have made.

Solaris 2.0
May 14, 2008

Cugel the Clever posted:

Except the handful of neighbors that typically turn up to veto any project frequently aren't fighting gentrification and are rarely representative of the community at large. The typical profile is well-off, white, retired Boomer house owners who will in one meeting decry a market-rate building for being unaffordable and in the next categorically reject a 100% affordable building, complaining "this isn't the kind of neighborhood for those people". Our political system also fails to give voice to hypothetical residents: those who would make a neighborhood their home if only it were affordable. Instead, the artificial constraints on number of homes filters out newcomers by price point, producing exactly the gentrification you claim you're arguing against.

Nobody here's talking about an urgent need to upzone the 'burbs and the 'xurbs, so much as the urban centers where still the majority of residential land is locked into exclusionary, SFH-only zoning.

If it's "low-hanging fruit", lets seize it quick and move on to the other big wins that can flow from it. It'd be a lot better than griping about it not 100% solving a problem while never meaningfully pursuing alternatives.

They're less "happy with the suburbs" than they are "unfamiliar with and fearful of the alternatives", thanks in no small part to literally a century of propaganda castigating cities as high-crime, multi-ethnic hellscapes where no responsible member of the white middle class would dare try to raise a family. Suburban life is preferred because it's familiar—its broad array of shortcomings are taken as fundamental laws of the universe because they rarely get the opportunity to experience an alternative. And, when they do, they often love it, occasionally flocking to quaint, walkable, bustling little main streets full of small shops and tasty independent restaurants for a weekend, but, because it's an "outing", they fail to let the experience raise questions on the 30+ minute drive home about the land use decisions they and those around them have made.

This is an excellent post. To back it up, here is a video from a prominent urbanist channel that shows why Suburbs are not sustainable economically.

https://youtu.be/VVUeqxXwCA0

https://youtu.be/XfQUOHlAocY

Solaris 2.0 fucked around with this message at 00:37 on Jan 19, 2022

Bongo Bill
Jan 17, 2012

When implemented fully, dense mixed zoning tends to be so well-liked that everybody and their dog trying to move there drives up the prices, leading to some to mistake it for a gentrifying design that should be opposed, when in fact they're just rare and desirable.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

Feel like we’ve had literally this exact same argument before in this very thread between the same people

Cicero
Dec 17, 2003

Jumpjet, melta, jumpjet. Repeat for ten minutes or until victory is assured.
Did you actually read this study? The parts where they talk about whether housing deregulation is associated with improved economic performance -- either GDP per capita for the metro or for the nation as a whole -- appear to be well supported by data at a glance*, but the part where they talk about whether increased housing supply lowers prices or not is just supposition and handwaving, the only data is about tangentially related things like "The powerful effects of income inequality rather than aggregate supply emerge from recent analysis of IPUMS data. Popov (2019) finds that in all of the top 100 US metropolitan areas, housing costs are growing more for those in the bottom half of the national income distribution than for those in the top half" and "Part of this is attributable to the landowner bonus that figures prominently in Hsieh and Moretti (2017), because the top income earners have a higher proportion of owners. But even for renters, top income households show a decline in income going to housing costs, while the bottom half of households that are renters show an increasing share going to housing costs, in a result consistent with Freemark’s (2019) detailed results for Chicago." Like okay, yes, things are getting worse for lower incomes, but that doesn't support their point.

quote:

Building on these data, we now argue that policies such as blanket upzoning, which will principally unleash market forces that serve high income earners, are therefore likely to reinforce the effects of income inequality rather than tempering them, as we now argue.
I've bolded the crux of their argument. It's not supported.

quote:

Thus, upzoning at a regional scale would trigger new housing construction in the neighbourhoods where the skilled workers want to live: the already-gentrifying areas and the extensive boundary zones between them and other neighbourhoods. This would allow more skilled workers in the upper quarter of the income distribution to live in the metropolitan core.
While some areas are certainly more desirable than others, in expensive metros, people are often desperate for decently priced housing anywhere. In the bay area, you see plenty of development that's in not particularly desirable areas. The old Kohl's in Sunnyvale right next to Lawrence Expressway being turned into a mixed use development isn't a particularly desirable area, but it's being developed regardless.

Bottom line, the studies that I use actually study particular metros that made a certain amount of housing, and did their best to measure the impact of that. This paper doesn't do that. And beyond that, it has some incredibly dumb points, like

quote:

Indeed, according to Zillow data
reported in The Washington Post (August 6, 2018), rents are now declining for the highest earners while continuing to increase for the poorest in San Francisco, Atlanta, Nashville, Chicago, Philadelphia, Denver, Pittsburgh, and Washington, noting that a boom in luxury construction in these areas has failed to ease housing market competition for cheaper properties. And while there is more evidence of filtering, this seems to have also stalled.
Like, c'mon, SF? You're gonna include the NIMBYest major city in the country as an example of a housing boom? Did these people even bother to do any research whatsoever on how much housing stock SF has added even as its economy booms?

quote:

do you think that upzoning just means changing zoning designations?
When people are talking about upzoning, changing zoning designations to allow for more density is the primary thing they're talking about, yes: taller buildings, smaller setbacks, reduced car parking minimums, etc. Of course there are usually other rule and design changes they're also for as well.

quote:

i literally said "exclusionary zoning should be killed" so i dunno who this comment is supposed to address, but it isn't me
Sure.

* There's still the issue of housing deregulation being correlated with more conservative metros and the effect that has on where companies choose to open or expand offices though. As someone who's worked in the tech industry, young techies that these companies want to recruit generally don't want to live in more conservative metros or states, for reasons you can probably guess at. So while they may complain about the high housing prices in SF or NYC, most would still prefer it to living in Tulsa or Dallas.

Badger of Basra posted:

Feel like we’ve had literally this exact same argument before in this very thread between the same people
"More housing doesn't lower housing prices" is the climate denialism of the left.

Mr. Fall Down Terror
Jan 24, 2018

by Fluffdaddy

Cicero posted:

When people are talking about upzoning, changing zoning designations to allow for more density is the primary thing they're talking about, yes: taller buildings, smaller setbacks, reduced car parking minimums, etc. Of course there are usually other rule and design changes they're also for as well.

this at least is better than "building public housing requires upzoning" which was personally confusing to me

Cicero posted:

"More housing doesn't lower housing prices" is the climate denialism of the left.

let's deregulate so private industry can fix things isn't really a left position imo

Cugel the Clever posted:

Except the handful of neighbors that typically turn up to veto any project frequently aren't fighting gentrification and are rarely representative of the community at large. The typical profile is well-off, white, retired Boomer house owners who will in one meeting decry a market-rate building for being unaffordable and in the next categorically reject a 100% affordable building, complaining "this isn't the kind of neighborhood for those people". Our political system also fails to give voice to hypothetical residents: those who would make a neighborhood their home if only it were affordable. Instead, the artificial constraints on number of homes filters out newcomers by price point, producing exactly the gentrification you claim you're arguing against.

i urge you to sincerely re-examine your perspective here critically, and ask some hard questions about what it is you really value

https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-housing-bill-failure-equity-groups-20180502-story.html

Mr. Fall Down Terror fucked around with this message at 01:37 on Jan 19, 2022

Cugel the Clever
Apr 5, 2009
I LOVE AMERICA AND CAPITALISM DESPITE BEING POOR AS FUCK. I WILL NEVER RETIRE BUT HERE'S ANOTHER 200$ FOR UKRAINE, SLAVA

Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:

this at least is better than "building public housing requires upzoning" which was personally confusing to me

let's deregulate so private industry can fix things isn't really a left position imo
Where from stems the incomprehension?

1. High-demand areas typically have effectively no remaining opportunities for greenfield development
2. Replacing low-density housing with high-density to better accommodate humans looking for homes is effectively prohibited in broad swathes of our cities by zoning regulation and poor public policy processes

Therefore, public housing at the scale necessary and in the most desired locations is completely dependent on either broad upzoning or blanket exemptions.

The only other alternatives are land reclamation (not an option in most cases, would encounter extreme pushback, completely unnecessary expense), rezoning of non-residential land (and cleaning up any pollutants industry may have left behind), or forcing people further and further into the sprawl.

How could public housing succeed if not allowed to build thousands of homes where most needed?

Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:

i urge you to sincerely re-examine your perspective here critically, and ask some hard questions about what it is you really value
Your link appears to be a case of rich NIMBYs maliciously abusing genuine fears from the disadvantaged to completely gently caress them over in the long run.

Cugel the Clever fucked around with this message at 01:43 on Jan 19, 2022

Mr. Fall Down Terror
Jan 24, 2018

by Fluffdaddy

Cugel the Clever posted:

Therefore, public housing at the scale necessary and in the most desired locations is completely dependent on either broad upzoning or blanket exemptions.

no? if we generally describe upzoning as "increasing permitted densities and reducing lot restrictive features to support higher floor area ratios" or something which would stimulate the free market to build more densely, then i think we've weakened the definition to the point of uselessness if it also means allowing for a change in density on publicly owned land. local governments can kind of do what they want with public land, adhering to zoning codes is more a sign that the local government is willing to play by the rules. but if an area is zoned residential and the local school district really needs to put a bus depot there then buddy, there's gonna be a bus depot there

Cugel the Clever posted:

Your link appears to be a case of rich NIMBYs maliciously abusing genuine fears from the disadvantaged to completely gently caress them over in the long run.

i think you reflexively view opposition to your views as orchestrated by Oppressors because this is easier than considering you might be on the side of the Oppressors yourself. i mean, you're not leaving any space at all for the disadvantaged to actually speak, you know? oh, well they're just puppets of The Man. jeez!

Mr. Fall Down Terror fucked around with this message at 01:51 on Jan 19, 2022

Cicero
Dec 17, 2003

Jumpjet, melta, jumpjet. Repeat for ten minutes or until victory is assured.

Bongo Bill posted:

When implemented fully, dense mixed zoning tends to be so well-liked that everybody and their dog trying to move there drives up the prices, leading to some to mistake it for a gentrifying design that should be opposed, when in fact they're just rare and desirable.
Exactly. The solution is to have this kind of desirable area in as many places as possible. In many other world cities, you can find nice mixed-use neighborhoods all over the place, which dilutes the effect of gentrification.

quote:

i urge you to sincerely re-examine your perspective here critically, and ask some hard questions about what it is you really value

https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-housing-bill-failure-equity-groups-20180502-story.html
What happened at the actual protests is bad, but the fact that the bill was shot down just made things worse.

quote:

Research from the state’s nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office and UC Berkeley has found that building any new housing, especially homes subsidized for low-income residents, prevents displacement at a regional level. But the data are less clear on the effects of construction in individual neighborhoods, sparking concerns that relaxed zoning rules could cause development that would price out residents in poor communities.
As the studies I linked to earlier show, even at the neighborhood level, more housing generally means lower rents than otherwise.

And while it's reasonable to have concerns about displacement of local low-income residents living in whatever buildings would be torn down:

quote:

Wiener and Hanlon disagree and point to numerous changes made to the bill after feedback from equity organizations. SB 827 would have deferred to local rules, including those in Los Angeles, that force developers to include homes for low-income residents while adding similar standards in areas that didn’t already have them. Developers wouldn’t have been allowed to demolish rent-controlled housing without explicit local government approval. Even then, those developers would have had to offer new units in their buildings to existing tenants at their prior rents.
It seems like even when the bills do include measures against displacement and for equity, people still fight them. I get that everyone wants to preserve their current 'neighborhood character', but the end result is either insane housing prices or endless suburban sprawl.

Haramstufe Rot
Jun 24, 2016

Badger of Basra posted:

Feel like we’ve had literally this exact same argument before in this very thread between the same people

I posted some sort of picture evidence why I think I like living in certain spots (as a human person). This was met with with a wall of text explaining historical causation anyone with a brain understands, and the assertion that it really ain't nobody's fault.

My point was about how living in cities feels. I have no idea who is to blame nor how to fix it, but when I look at the pictures I can immediately see why. It's a physical difference, both in terms of public spaces and (related to that) the space allocated to cars. Many US cities feel like they are built to move as quickly as possible from your house to a point of private, commercial consumption.

I think back at the Midwestern town I used to live in, and it is striking that they had no spaces, nor anything I'd call an "inner city" in the European sense at all. They had a main street, which was special because it had actual sidewalks, and a mini park for a statue. Otherwise, it was roads and roads and roads. Someone, whoever, is still building like this, or otherwise making no attempts to correct it. And we just learned from the article that it is very expensive, too. Okay no one is to blame, but someone continues to do that.

By contrast, I know a small town where they recently redirected a river in the city and then build a park, a riverwalk and a public space as an expansion to the inner city. Someone did that, too. I think it should be done more like that I guess.

Cicero
Dec 17, 2003

Jumpjet, melta, jumpjet. Repeat for ten minutes or until victory is assured.
Oh there's definitely people to blame, it's just not, like, one single agency or individual. There's a litany of errors that cause this problem. A random one: "level of service" just measuring how free flowing car traffic is/how many cars a road can handle. No factoring in how many people are in those cars (or buses), just the number of vehicles. No factoring how far those cars have to go. No factoring in how the street works for people walking or biking. When that's a primary metric, it's easy to see how we'd end up with what we have (not that it's the only thing, of course).

Cicero fucked around with this message at 02:31 on Jan 19, 2022

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

local governments building public housing while ignoring zoning sounds even less likely than doing large scale upzoning

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

Cugel the Clever posted:

Our political system also fails to give voice to hypothetical residents: those who would make a neighborhood their home if only it were affordable.

I've read an interesting argument that this essentially boils down to scale. The more local the decision-making, the more it empowers NIMBYs relative to potential residents.

Bubbacub
Apr 17, 2001

Mooseontheloose posted:

I live in a medium sized (over 20,000 people) town in Massachusetts and the constant complaints about building APARTMENT buildings in OUR SMALL TOWN constantly grate on me.

The usual people have identical complaints in Cambridge (pop. 116,000).

Insanite
Aug 30, 2005

Cambridge is one of the denser cities in the United States. None of the mid-sized MA suburbs come close. :shrug:

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Bubbacub posted:

The usual people have identical complaints in Cambridge (pop. 116,000).

Oh yah, I did a race in Cambridge and the constant debates about the overlay.

Bubbacub
Apr 17, 2001

Insanite posted:

Cambridge is one of the denser cities in the United States. None of the mid-sized MA suburbs come close. :shrug:

Yes but it still has neighborhood character and architectural diversity that we mustn't spoil by letting outside investors profit from out-of-control development.

PerniciousKnid
Sep 13, 2006

Jasper Tin Neck posted:

I've read an interesting argument that this essentially boils down to scale. The more local the decision-making, the more it empowers NIMBYs relative to potential residents.

I could see it going either way; on a local scale proponents can reach more residents in person, but on a national level the discourse is mostly controlled by capital.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

On a local level it’s mostly controlled by capital too it’s just capital in the form of land and homeowners

Nitrousoxide
May 30, 2011

do not buy a oneplus phone



Are there any small towns in the US people can point to as exemplars for how to handle densifying and equitable housing?

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Nitrousoxide posted:

Are there any small towns in the US people can point to as exemplars for how to handle densifying and equitable housing?

Not of the top of my head. I wills say SOME towns in Mass. have done a decent job in building their housing stock but that's because they wanted to avoid developers slapping them with the 40B law to build affordable housing. The short version is that MA allows you to count whole apartment buildings as affordable if 25% of the stock in the apartment is set at 40B levels. And while that maybe a loophole, the towns would of never build apartment style housing with out the law looming.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

PerniciousKnid posted:

I could see it going either way; on a local scale proponents can reach more residents in person, but on a national level the discourse is mostly controlled by capital.

I admire your faith in community spirit and the power of reason, but say you're an elected official responsible for this issue. The more local the land use regulation is:
  • the more all the people upset by increased traffic, blocked views and neighbourhood character are your problem
  • the more homelessness and high cost of living is somebody else's problem

PerniciousKnid
Sep 13, 2006

Jasper Tin Neck posted:

I admire your faith in community spirit and the power of reason,

Maybe more accurate to say I have even less faith in any other level of government.

Cicero
Dec 17, 2003

Jumpjet, melta, jumpjet. Repeat for ten minutes or until victory is assured.
NIMBY, anti-density attitudes are way stronger at the local level than otherwise. That's why the significant movement in California for increasing density recently has mostly been at the state level making broad decisions; you're never gonna get most people in smaller cities and towns especially to approve of even moderate levels of density, Americans are just loving terrified of that poo poo. And they can always just act like that's someone else's problem. "Yes, we need more housing, but why here? Can't it be in {major cities that are already dense, suburbs that aren't doing their part, Texas}?"

If you just let cities decide, maybe you could make some inroads in cities like SF or Cambridge or other places where people are at least somewhat reasonable. But, like, Atherton or Los Altos? They'll be richie rich suburbs keeping out the working and middle class forever. They'll never suddenly decide that apartments or even fourplexes throughout their city is okay.

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Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

https://twitter.com/OhSweetNothing/status/1483982815599468554?s=20

thank god we have community input processes to stop gentrification

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