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Which horse film is your favorite?
This poll is closed.
Black Beauty 2 1.06%
A Talking Pony!?! 4 2.13%
Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor 117 62.23%
War Horse 11 5.85%
Mr. Hands 54 28.72%
Total: 188 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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Reverend Dr
Feb 9, 2005

Thanks Reverend

killer_robot posted:

Where are you getting this number?
NYT says just under 2k. Which is not good, but it's not 3.5k.

That's the 7-day average. They hide the daily number down the page. Scroll down about 2/3 the way to "New Reported Deaths by Day where they list today (as of this post) 3,904.

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Alctel
Jan 16, 2004

I love snails


WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

9/11 every day is loving insane again. Couple of my guys are completely out of breath The entire day at work after having covid for a week and a half. It's nuts however good things from the UK in terms of cases going back down it would seem. I say seem as it probably will just never stop in the US because of constant reinfections

The UK is also way more vaccinated than the US.

It makes a big difference.

Weasling Weasel
Oct 20, 2010
Boosters are helping in the UK as well, particuarly with the higher risk groups targeting. The growth has slow down though, so will be interesting to see where it levels out to.

And no, saying that Omicron is milder than Delta isn't causing American's to die in record numbers, I think you'll find it's the disease and vaccine misinformation which is doing that.

Stickman
Feb 1, 2004

Weasling Weasel posted:

Boosters are helping in the UK as well, particuarly with the higher risk groups targeting. The growth has slow down though, so will be interesting to see where it levels out to.

And no, saying that Omicron is milder than Delta isn't causing American's to die in record numbers, I think you'll find it's the disease and vaccine misinformation which is doing that.

I sure that the concerted propaganda designed to get everyone comfortable ditching personal precautions and climbing back under the wheels of capitalism has nothing to do with transmissions, lol.

killer_robot
Aug 26, 2006
Grimey Drawer
.

killer_robot fucked around with this message at 11:03 on Jan 20, 2022

StratGoatCom
Aug 6, 2019

Our security is guaranteed by being able to melt the eyeballs of any other forum's denizens at 15 minutes notice


Stickman posted:

I sure that the concerted propaganda designed to get everyone comfortable ditching personal precautions and climbing back under the wheels of capitalism has nothing to do with transmissions, lol.

so yes, but OP is looking at the wrong set of mouths.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

smoobles posted:

Wow, 3500 deaths today in the USA. loving insane, and right on schedule.

If this trajectory continues, I wonder if anyone who peddled "omicron is mild" will feel bad for normalizing covid infections & participating in this wave of deaths.

Probably not.
Having to sit through the "oh [latest wave] isn't killing anybody" narrative during the usual lag between cases and deaths for a fourth time was incredible

E: also the "with covid not of covid" defense once the hospitals filled up again right on schedule

VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 15:39 on Jan 20, 2022

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
#ATMLIVESMATTER

Put this Nazi-lover on ignore immediately!
Ontario's deaths are spiking pretty heavily (starting to approach the worst of the Alpha and OG waves), so the spin machine is in full tilt. Turns out the deaths are all "catch-up" every time the number gets high, oh and it turns out people are dying WITH covid, not FROM covid.

Also our CMOH has been speculating that the exponential rise in deaths is mostly Delta, despite Delta cases flatlining / shrinking, and the exponential growth timed precisely to when you'd expect Omicron deaths.

https://twitter.com/RichardCityNews/status/1484162255910588417

In unrelated news, Ontario is aiming to drop all restrictions by March.

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

Stickman posted:

concerted propaganda designed to get everyone comfortable ditching personal precautions and climbing back under the wheels of capitalism

What is this referring to and why does it have as large an effect as people being unvaccinated by choice?

edit: also where does it appear in e.g. mobility data?

James Garfield fucked around with this message at 15:44 on Jan 20, 2022

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

rko posted:

If it’s our stupid political system, why am I not hearing about it all of the time from the administration? Why is the message not one of constant fury directed at whomever is preventing the basic pandemic prevention techniques our peer nations are doing, instead of being told over and over again that we should voluntarily mask and vaccinate ourselves on our way to getting back to work?

Joe Biden owes his position and power to that political system, he'd be a nobody in a system that was designed to promote the welfare of the people

He became VP, which finally got him the name recognition to win his fiftieth primary, because Obama needed to reassure Wall Street and white racists that it was going to be business as usual

smoobles
Sep 4, 2014

VitalSigns posted:

Having to sit through the "oh [latest wave] isn't killing anybody" narrative during the usual lag between cases and deaths for a fourth time was incredible

E: also the "with covid not of covid" defense once the hospitals filled up again right on schedule

What scares me the most is that the Bad Covid Talking Points are now bipartisan instead of right wing. I started feeling this way back in April/May when it started becoming clear that vaccinated liberals were okay with mass death so long as it was among the unvaccinated. Now it's open call for eugenics for the sake of return to normalcy (dine-in restaurants)

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Gio
Jun 20, 2005


smoobles posted:

What scares me the most is that the Bad Covid Talking Points are now bipartisan instead of right wing. I started feeling this way back in April/May when it started becoming clear that vaccinated liberals were okay with mass death so long as it was among the unvaccinated. Now it's open call for eugenics for the sake of return to normalcy (dine-in restaurants)
It was a pretty impressive about-face. Liberals went from double-masking to Masks Off May in the span of, what—3 weeks? 4, maybe?

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

smoobles posted:

What scares me the most is that the Bad Covid Talking Points are now bipartisan instead of right wing. I started feeling this way back in April/May when it started becoming clear that vaccinated liberals were okay with mass death so long as it was among the unvaccinated. Now it's open call for eugenics for the sake of return to normalcy (dine-in restaurants)

Yeah I felt bad things were coming when the governor of New York turned on some May 2020 Sean Hannity episodes and was like "wow this guy is making some great points about how hospitals are totally overcounting cases and we should be ignoring some cases for accuracy"


Gio posted:

It was a pretty impressive about-face. Liberals went from double-masking to Masks Off May in the span of, what—3 weeks? 4, maybe?

Kinda just back where they were in February 2020, remember before reinventing himself as the covid warrior, Cuomo was encouraging New Yorkers to pack the bars and clubs even as the disaster was unfolding in Italy.

I wonder how many more Americans would have died under a Democratic administration where they wouldn't have had the incentive to distinguish themselves from Trump

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

Reverend Dr posted:

That's the 7-day average. They hide the daily number down the page. Scroll down about 2/3 the way to "New Reported Deaths by Day where they list today (as of this post) 3,904.

The 7-day average is used because numbers are not reported every day. That's why the visible data points always stick out so far above the trend line. 2,000 is probably a more appropriate number to use, because the 3,904 represents more than one day's worth of deaths.

Sharks Eat Bear
Dec 25, 2004

Stickman posted:

(like the recent cdc study with a tiny, tiny sample size and inadequate controls)

Can you elaborate on this? I don’t agree that the number of deaths is too small to support the conclusion that the majority of deaths are among people with more risk factors; this seems like it would be the null hypothesis going in based on prior understanding of mortality risk and it also matches up with the in-study finding of increased risk of non-fatal severe outcomes with a larger sample size (around 150 iirc), so the small sample size isn’t ideal but also not a critical flaw that makes the study worthless. I’m curious about your comment on inadequate controls, though.

For the sake of discussion I’m not really interested in whether Walensky used the study appropriately or not, just trying to discuss the quality of the research itself.

ExcessBLarg!
Sep 1, 2001

smoobles posted:

I started feeling this way back in April/May when it started becoming clear that vaccinated liberals were okay with mass death so long as it was among the unvaccinated.
The vast majority of unvaccinated (those who refused to vaccinate, not those ineligible or medically contraindicated) had long wanted to get rid of NPIs. Why would the vaccinated push to enforce NPIs to help those that didn't want them anyways? At some point a death cult is going to die.

Now, mind you, NPIs and limiting spread was still very important to protect those ineligible--particularly children--so I agree that the premature lifting of them in 2021 was a bad call even at the time, and doubly so in hindsight. Still, I don't blame people for not having tons of empathy for a population that refuses to care for themselves.

UCS Hellmaker
Mar 29, 2008
Toilet Rascal

VitalSigns posted:

Having to sit through the "oh [latest wave] isn't killing anybody" narrative during the usual lag between cases and deaths for a fourth time was incredible

E: also the "with covid not of covid" defense once the hospitals filled up again right on schedule

Mind you, maybe it's because I work in a hospital means that I may be biased, or that I get daily and weekly newsletters from my hospital on the current covid deaths and rates. But hey tell me I'm blowing stuff off more, that my experiences and observations are just liberal talking points to blow off how covid works. Makes me feel great and appreciated that the internet warriors know so much about things 🙂

UCS Hellmaker
Mar 29, 2008
Toilet Rascal
And sidenote, Delta did exactly what it did last year, as things went indoors and people started congregating inside it went up, but hey it means nothing because omicron!

The icus are actively filled with tons of unvaccinated and predominantly all Delta, the hospital systems have all said that unvaccinated are the primary drive in patients with omicron in vaccinated patients not nearly as severe of an illness as Delta or wildtype. But hey the gently caress do I know, I don't spend 50 hours a day reading Twitter and looking for ways to blame liberals.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
#ATMLIVESMATTER

Put this Nazi-lover on ignore immediately!
Genuine question - how would you tell that the new admissions are Delta? I'm not totally unwilling to accept that a slew of ICU admissions that nearly precisely tracks the Omicron wave but delayed by 4-5 weeks is Delta, but it would need to be some pretty extraordinary evidence IMO.

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there
Denmark - 20 January 2022


Another massive wodge of cases on the 18th as they sort them by test date. Again a new record for hospital beds in use, and another drop in ICU and ventilator use.

Not much else to say, except the "partial" cases are lower today from the last 2 days, so ... maybe the new cases will drop too, but it's quite likely just an artefact.

The under-20s continue to dominate cases, with the 6-11s being like 1/3 the total.

So it went from the dual spikes over the holidays to just grinding through school kids, and I expect university students now too.

Plus side is the level of vaccination in over-12s plus the apparent lower impact on under-12s means the medical system here is not apparently collapsing.

So far DK has had 1.23M cases with 46K reinfections. Thats' maybe 22% of the population with official COVID.... so at 250,000 cases a week we'll be done a once-through with omicron at some point.

Daily "Last 7 days cases" split into three age brackets:
pre:
		20 Jan	19 Jan	18 Jan	17 Jan	15 Jan	14 Jan	13 Jan	12 Jan	11 Jan	10 Jan	07 Jan
0-19 years	43.7%	43.3%	42.2%	40.9%	37.7%	36.5%	35.6%	34.2%	31.8%	30.1%	27%
20-39 years	28.6%	29.2%	30.0%	31.0%	32.9%	33.8%	34.7%	36.1%	38.2%	39.1%	40%
40+ years	27.6%	27.5%	27.8%	28.1%	29.4%	29.8%	29.7%	29.6%	30.0%	30.7%	33%
Table 1. Actual and Reported Denmark COVID Cases reported per day
pre:
	Actual	Reported	New	Total
Date	Cases	Cases	Reinf.	Hosp.	Hosp.	ICU		Vent		Dead
==============================================================================================
Jan 20	   ---	40,626	2,639	232	825	49 (-1)		28 (-2)		15
Jan 19	  6,722	38,759	2,285	248	821	50 (+1)		30 (+1)		16
Jan 18	39,782	33,493	2,002	264	810	49 (-3)		29 (-8)		14
Jan 17	41,473	28,780	1,815	203	802	52 (-7)		37 (-4)		11
Jan 16	28,178	-------	-----	---	734	59 (+0)		41 (+1)		16 
Jan 15	25,188	25,034	1,644	202	711	59 (-1)		40 (+4)		16
Jan 14	25,883	23,614	1,519	215	757	60 (-4)		36 (-2)		15
Jan 13	23,776	25,751	1,822	194	755	64 (-9)		38 (-8)		20
Jan 12	22,575	24,343	1,614	215	751	73 (+0)		46 (+0)		25
Jan 11	22,656	22,936	1,459	181	754	73 (-1)		46 (-1)		14
Jan 10	23,244	14,414	  941	156	777	74 (-3)		47 (-3)		 9 
Jan 09	16,330	19,248	1,327	126	723	77 (-1) 	50 (-2) 	14 
Jan 08	13,573	12,588	  984	161	730	78 (+0) 	52 (-1) 	28 
Jan 07	14,434	18,261	1,482	186	755	78 (-4) 	53 (+4) 	10  
Jan 06	15,417	25,995	2,027	161	756	82 (+2) 	47 (-2) 	11  
Jan 05	17,577	28,283	2,083	204	784	80 (+3) 	49 (+2) 	15
Jan 04	23,698	23,372	1,701	229	792	77 (+4) 	47 (+1) 	15
Jan 03*	25,617	 8,801	  532	169	770	73 (-3) 	46 (-4) 	 5
Jan 02  19,906 	 7,550	  404	163	709	76 (+3) 	50 (+1) 	15
Jan 01   8,631	20,885	1,049	139	647	73 (+0) 	49 (+0) 	 5
Dec 31   9,728	17,605	1,090	177	641	73 (-2) 	49 (-1) 	11
Dec 30  19,927	21,403	1,123	178	665	75 (-2) 	50 (-2) 	 9
Dec 29  17,245	23,228	1,205	173	675	77 (+6) 	52 (+2) 	16
Dec 28  21,955	13,000	  670	177	666	71 (+1) 	50 (+4) 	14
Dec 27  22,616	16,164	  639	115	608	70 (-1) 	46 (-2) 	 7
Dec 26  10,965	14,844	  644	123	579	71 (-2) 	43 (+1) 	13
Dec 25   7,853	10,027	  463	 86	522	73 (-1) 	44 (+5) 	10
Dec 24   7,054	11,229	  527	134	509	74 (+2) 	39 (+1) 	14
Dec 23  12,605	12,487	  613	158	541	72 (+6) 	38 (+1)		15
Dec 22  11,591	13,386	  531	126	524	66 (-1) 	37 (+2)		14 
Dec 21  13,011	13,558	  501	121	526	67 (+1) 	35 (+2)		17
Dec 20  13,288	10,082	  ---	 85	581	66 (+3) 	33 (-2)		 8
Dec 19  10,231 	 8,212
Dec 18  10,049 	 8,594
Dec 17  10.614	11,194
Dec 16  10,171 	 9,999
Dec 15  10,775 	 8,773	  ---	 96	508	66 (+0)		43 (-3)		 9
Dec 13  10,294 	 7,799	  ---	 61	480	64 (-1)		42 (+0)		 9
Dec 12   6,986 	 5,989	  ---	 82	468	65 (+5)		42 (+6)	 	 9
Dec 08   6,560 	 6,629	  ---	 72	461	66 (-1)		38 (-1)		 7
Dec 01   4,464 	 5,120	  ---	 88	439	35 (+1)		35 (+1)		14
Table 2: ICU Bed Usage, Weekly (reported every 2 weeks)
pre:
Date      		Bed Availability
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 January  	331 ICU beds, 76 COVID, 32 available
27 December	316 ICU beds, 71 COVID, 62 available 
20 December 	317 ICU beds, 60 COVID, 59 available
13 December 	319 ICU beds, 64 COVID, 39 available
06 December 	310 ICU beds, 67 COVID, 10 available <-- squeaky bum time here
29 November	318 ICU beds, 61 COVID, 25 available
Sourcea:
https://www.rkkp.dk/kvalitetsdatabaser/databaser/dansk-intensiv-database/resultater/
https://covid19.ssi.dk/overvagningsdata/download-fil-med-overvaagningdata
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/242ec2acc014456295189631586f1d26
https://covid19.ssi.dk/virusvarianter/delta-pcr

Potato Salad
Oct 23, 2014

nobody cares


enki42 posted:

Genuine question - how would you tell that the new admissions are Delta? I'm not totally unwilling to accept that a slew of ICU admissions that nearly precisely tracks the Omicron wave but delayed by 4-5 weeks is Delta, but it would need to be some pretty extraordinary evidence IMO.

These new admissions would need to be sequenced. Several of the members of various CoV-2 clades have the same mutation that has been a hallmark for Delta detection.

Of interest is Omicron BA.2, which maybe yes maybe no might be at least a blip on the variant radar. Domestic press is calling it "stealth omicron," for whatever that's worth.

Potato Salad
Oct 23, 2014

nobody cares


VitalSigns posted:

It's too bad Abrams tanks don't protect you from covid because then the government would sign a trillion dollar contract to send every American 10 of them every month.

Armor isn't my thing, but given the original mission of the Abrams, it would be surprising if they didn't have significant CBRN hardening.

Is this one of those capabilities that you really need to be maintaining deliberately month over month, where most of armor guys outside Europe don't really care too much about CBRN anymore after decades of bs counterinsurgency deployment?

in case it isn't glaringly obvious, this is an attempt at some much needed levity

Potato Salad
Oct 23, 2014

nobody cares


TheSlutPit posted:

It’s really no different from picking out a set of good work shoes, and the differences in quality of day-to-day life are equally noticeable.

Jumping on this, I took time in the summer of 2020 to try out a bunch of tried-and-tested brands and models of PPE with licensed, practicing occupational health & safety employees at one of my client sites. I've worked as a computer toucher supporting some clients who have environments working with significant presence of potentially aerosolized retroviral agent and nanomaterial hazards for the better part of a decade, but I've always just worn the default site offering of a disposable 3M half face dome NIOSH respirator without thinking about it too hard. I had to get it fit tested every year, but that was about the extent of my concern for the matter.

Back to 2020, I actually made a point to talk with the safety and health staff about other options that
(1) might fit better
(2) might be more comfortable

.... and as a synthesis of 1+2, would provide me better overall mitigation of airborne risks. Out of this, I ended up on a different 3M disposable respirator they had on hand and had them charge my team for a pair of 7503 elastomeric half face respirators with cartridges on the P100 specification that, despite being heavier and bulkier due to exceeding the site's requirements in normal operation, fit WAY more comfortably

My sole point here is that it's totally worth trying out a bunch of options. Obviously, I've had to move on to other PPE in light of requirements that I provide some kind of source control (7503s don't have certified exhalation valve plugs) and what fits on my face is going to fit differently on your face.

But, whether you're required (or choose) to wear cloth or surgicals or aerosol respirators, shop around and try a few.

Fabricated
Apr 9, 2007

Living the Dream

Potato Salad posted:

These new admissions would need to be sequenced. Several of the members of various CoV-2 clades have the same mutation that has been a hallmark for Delta detection.

Of interest is Omicron BA.2, which maybe yes maybe no might be at least a blip on the variant radar. Domestic press is calling it "stealth omicron," for whatever that's worth.
The guy that first sequenced omicron did a thread about it.

https://twitter.com/PeacockFlu/status/1483768659420094464?s=20

Basically a marginally more fit omicron that may deserve it's own Greek letter but initially looks like it just kinda swaps places with ba.1. Tom and a couple people he follows on this guess it won't effect vaccine efficacy much and ba.1 infections probably grant immunity against it.

Stickman
Feb 1, 2004

Sharks Eat Bear posted:

Can you elaborate on this? I don’t agree that the number of deaths is too small to support the conclusion that the majority of deaths are among people with more risk factors; this seems like it would be the null hypothesis going in based on prior understanding of mortality risk and it also matches up with the in-study finding of increased risk of non-fatal severe outcomes with a larger sample size (around 150 iirc), so the small sample size isn’t ideal but also not a critical flaw that makes the study worthless. I’m curious about your comment on inadequate controls, though.

For the sake of discussion I’m not really interested in whether Walensky used the study appropriately or not, just trying to discuss the quality of the research itself.

The “cdc study” part is my mistake from just reading about it in news reports. It’s this Kaiser Permanente study that has been making the news rounds as “Omicron infection has 91% reduced chance of death!” It also had more Delta deaths than Omicron, but crucially it only looked at outcomes through January 1st. Since it’s the only US comparative study that I know of, I suspect that it’s the source of the “deaths are just Delta” narrative.

Unfortunately, I don’t have time to discuss all the details of the methodology right now, but it only includes 12 deaths, the estimated hazard ratio for deaths is unadjusted, and the sample is drawn only from Kaiser outpatient testing, which has the potential to be problematically biased. I’ll post more thoughts later when I get a chance.

This still doesn’t make the paper worthless, it means that the methodology and sample (size, methodology, and time frame) are inadequate to the strong narrative conclusions that folks like Walensky are pretending it supports.

As far as Delta surging, it’s hard to find good charts from surveillance and I’ll have to look more later, but Trevor Bradford posted these today:

https://mobile.twitter.com/trvrb/status/1483996714662973441

There’s at least no evidence of a Delta surge from the sequencing surveillance in those states. Given that median infection-to-death time is ~20 days, that makes the “it’s Delta” narrative less believable without current evidence.

E: Apparently S-gene failure might also be an inadequate distinguishing test? I’ll have to look into that more because that could mean that the study isn’t useful for comparing delta and omicron.

Reverend Dr
Feb 9, 2005

Thanks Reverend

Mellow Seas posted:

The 7-day average is used because numbers are not reported every day. That's why the visible data points always stick out so far above the trend line. 2,000 is probably a more appropriate number to use, because the 3,904 represents more than one day's worth of deaths.

The question I answered was specifically about the total for the day. The question was about a data point and I answered about that data point with a link that includes a whole lot of other information including the data point that you mention.

The question was not "which number should I look at?" If that were the question, then the answer is that there isn't one magic number that answers all of the questions and multiple numbers should be considered together and not in opposition to each other. But more specifically the 7day average is not averaged around the day in question (i.e. that day plus the 3 days prior and 3 days after) it is averaged around that day and the 6 days prior. This means that this particular average is going to lag behind about 3 days from how averages work in most every other situation. This means that any actionable observation/deduction derived from exclusively the 7-day average is going to, at best, be 3 days late.

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

Stickman posted:



E: Apparently S-gene failure might also be an inadequate distinguishing test? I’ll have to look into that more because that could mean that the study isn’t useful for comparing delta and omicron.

I believe it can't distinguish between {BA.1 Omicron} and {BA.2 Omicron OR Delta}

StratGoatCom
Aug 6, 2019

Our security is guaranteed by being able to melt the eyeballs of any other forum's denizens at 15 minutes notice


BA.2 may or may not be a problem but one thing that gives me cause for concern is that Omicron seems to be radiating fast as a clade and that means a good number of mutation chances.

Sharks Eat Bear
Dec 25, 2004

Stickman posted:

The “cdc study” part is my mistake from just reading about it in news reports. It’s this Kaiser Permanente study that has been making the news rounds as “Omicron infection has 91% reduced chance of death!” It also had more Delta deaths than Omicron, but crucially it only looked at outcomes through January 1st. Since it’s the only US comparative study that I know of, I suspect that it’s the source of the “deaths are just Delta” narrative.

Unfortunately, I don’t have time to discuss all the details of the methodology right now, but it only includes 12 deaths, the estimated hazard ratio for deaths is unadjusted, and the sample is drawn only from Kaiser outpatient testing, which has the potential to be problematically biased. I’ll post more thoughts later when I get a chance.

This still doesn’t make the paper worthless, it means that the methodology and sample (size, methodology, and time frame) are inadequate to the strong narrative conclusions that folks like Walensky are pretending it supports.

Got it, makes sense. Haven’t read or heard about this Kaiser paper yet, but at first blush your criticism all seems well reasoned.

If you do have thoughts on the CDC paper about risk factors among vaxxed, I’d be curious to hear too. I shared my perspective already but always good to hear more points of view.

Stickman
Feb 1, 2004

Petey posted:

I believe it can't distinguish between {BA.1 Omicron} and {BA.2 Omicron OR Delta}

That would be a problem for tagging delta cases based on s-gene failure if BA.2 were prevalent, but I don’t know anything about it’s distribution or relative abundance. It may not be a problem for this particular paper!

Stickman
Feb 1, 2004

Sharks Eat Bear posted:

Got it, makes sense. Haven’t read or heard about this Kaiser paper yet, but at first blush your criticism all seems well reasoned.

If you do have thoughts on the CDC paper about risk factors among vaxxed, I’d be curious to hear too. I shared my perspective already but always good to hear more points of view.

Sure, I'll look over the discussion later today or tomorrow. I did post a bit about about it before your discussion but it was in the context of Walensky and news outlets focusing on the absolute rates for breakthrough cases/hospitalizations from the paper, which the study was certainly not designed to reasonably estimate. I think the discussion you all had was about the degree of potential bias in estimation of relative risks of death based on comorbidities?

Here's what I wrote before:

Stickman posted:

The study is definitely not designed to comprehensively capture breakthrough infections or assess effectiveness. The used a database that tracked COVID-19 inpatient and outpatient encounters in 495 hospital facilities, which means that any breakthroughs tested outside of those specific facilities would not be captured (ie, testing sites, smaller clinics, etc). The 1.2M likely comes from the # of people vaccinated at those facilities (it's not 100% from the methodology), but there's no guarantee that they would also test at a covered facility. They also don't say how vax and patient records were matched within the database, but having worked with this sort of data before I'm pretty confident there's going to some misses for cases within the (potentially both from people who were vaxxed outside of the system or even state and from mismatched identifiers).

Beyond that, you also need to consider:
- The at-risk-while vaccinated period of the population (most of the population was only vaccinated for a small portion of those 11 months.
- The community transmission rates while people were vaccijnated and at-risk (and in their specific communities).
- Demographics.

Our breakthrough tracking is decentralized, incomplete, and slipshod. Studies need to be very, very careful if they want to ensure comprehensive coverage. This study is not because it was not attempting to estimate breakthrough rates. It was simply looking at risk factors for severe disease within a population of breakthrough cases, which requires much less stringent sampling methodology.

Illuminti
Dec 3, 2005

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy
Not that I'll be voluntarily travelling to the United States anytime soon, but I have been having to look at what it would entail and frankly it is loving hilarious that you are required to show a negative PCR test from the last 24 hours before being allowed to board a plane that will take you directly into the 1 million case a day hellscape that is America. God forbid some foreigner should bring a disease into this pristine Eden.

Henrik Zetterberg
Dec 7, 2007

e: nm

Smeef
Aug 15, 2003

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!



Pillbug

Illuminti posted:

Not that I'll be voluntarily travelling to the United States anytime soon, but I have been having to look at what it would entail and frankly it is loving hilarious that you are required to show a negative PCR test from the last 24 hours before being allowed to board a plane that will take you directly into the 1 million case a day hellscape that is America. God forbid some foreigner should bring a disease into this pristine Eden.

In late summer 2020 I had to travel to the US. The aircrew gave me a slip of paper to fill out, asking if I'd been in Wuhan in the past two weeks. I went through immigration, and no one said a word to me, which was a welcome change from the usual interrogation. Then I got my bags, walked through customs, and was standing at the taxi line still holding that useless slip of paper that they didn't even collect. There were a few others just like it blowing in the wind near a trash can.

tagesschau
Sep 1, 2006

D&D: HASBARA SQUAD
THE SPEECH SUPPRESSOR


Remember: it's "antisemitic" to protest genocide as long as the targets are brown.

Illuminti posted:

it is loving hilarious that you are required to show a negative PCR test from the last 24 hours

It doesn't have to be a PCR test.

Charles 2 of Spain
Nov 7, 2017

Smeef posted:

The aircrew gave me a slip of paper to fill out, asking if I'd been in Wuhan in the past two weeks.
Lmao

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

Illuminti posted:

Not that I'll be voluntarily travelling to the United States anytime soon, but I have been having to look at what it would entail and frankly it is loving hilarious that you are required to show a negative PCR test from the last 24 hours before being allowed to board a plane that will take you directly into the 1 million case a day hellscape that is America. God forbid some foreigner should bring a disease into this pristine Eden.

Hi, involuntary avatar bought for you by a psychopath buddy!

It's all pretty simple and the same in virtually all countries. It's easier to control a border than it is to control movement and behavior within the country. Checks at airports are run by the federal government, which right now is somewhat more reasonable than many states.

Additionally, virtually all countries require tourists and immigrants to fulfill criteria that their citizens don't.

Lastly, I think it makes sense to at least try not to add to the number of infections and chud talking points by not allowing infected people to come in.

Okay, back to pointing out how only the US does this.

Illuminti
Dec 3, 2005

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

Smeef posted:

In late summer 2020 I had to travel to the US. The aircrew gave me a slip of paper to fill out, asking if I'd been in Wuhan in the past two weeks. I went through immigration, and no one said a word to me, which was a welcome change from the usual interrogation. Then I got my bags, walked through customs, and was standing at the taxi line still holding that useless slip of paper that they didn't even collect. There were a few others just like it blowing in the wind near a trash can.

Haunting.

But yeah it's all theatre, like taking your belt and shoes off.


tagesschau posted:

It doesn't have to be a PCR test.

This is true, but in effect it isn't. They don't accept your used RAT at check in and you need documentation that you had a proper test carried out by someone. Where I am that means getting a PCR at the airport. Although I suppose you could make a doctors appointment on the day of your flight and do a RAT test in front of them....


Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:

Hi, involuntary avatar bought for you by a psychopath buddy!

It's all pretty simple and the same in virtually all countries. It's easier to control a border than it is to control movement and behavior within the country. Checks at airports are run by the federal government, which right now is somewhat more reasonable than many states.

Additionally, virtually all countries require tourists and immigrants to fulfill criteria that their citizens don't.

Lastly, I think it makes sense to at least try not to add to the number of infections and chud talking points by not allowing infected people to come in.

Okay, back to pointing out how only the US does this.

Hi fellow supporter of glorious disease free China.

Thanks, I hadn't yet formulated my thoughts into a letter to send to the US Embassy and you've given me a lot to think about.


Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:



Okay, back to pointing out how only the US does this.

Off the top of my head the UK, Germany and Spain don't

StratGoatCom
Aug 6, 2019

Our security is guaranteed by being able to melt the eyeballs of any other forum's denizens at 15 minutes notice


https://twitter.com/sfchronicle/status/1484240944870342663

Don't look now, but it may be back.

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Levitate
Sep 30, 2005

randy newman voice

YOU'VE GOT A LAFRENIÈRE IN ME
https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1484316590715723776

Pre-print but method seems pretty straight forward. Seems throat or cheek swab alone with an antigen test is far less accurate

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