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The frozen steppe troops aren't the only ones there. Fresh troops are heading to Belarus and the Ukrainian border: https://citeam.org/russian-exercise-or-not-a-exercise.html?2 So the 100k troop number is really outdated. Wonder how much it will be soon
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Jan 20, 2022 10:00
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barbecue at the folks posted:Russian troops have been basically camping in their staging positions for a good few weeks now in the worst weather imaginable, Eh... this is much more pleasant than what the troops from northern Russia ared used to in January. 
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Jan 20, 2022 10:26
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Biden's team is in damage control mode over the "minor incursion" sound bite. https://twitter.com/emilyhorne46/status/1483934454238351362
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Jan 20, 2022 10:34
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Dante80 posted:For Putin? spacetoaster posted:Do you think Crimeans want to go back to Ukraine? Also, what do you think Ukraine would do there if they got it back?
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Jan 20, 2022 10:41
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For Crimea it's also unserviced by Russian banks and many companies. For a relevant example you can see Northern Cyprus that wants to reunite with the Greeks. Dunno about the current situation in Crimea but the massive repressions of Crimean Tatars and Ukrainians surely doesn't help
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Jan 20, 2022 10:53
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Somaen posted:For Crimea it's also unserviced by Russian banks and many companies. For a relevant example you can see Northern Cyprus that wants to reunite with the Greeks. Dunno about the current situation in Crimea but the massive repressions of Crimean Tatars and Ukrainians surely doesn't help
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Jan 20, 2022 11:46
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BoldFace posted:Eh... this is much more pleasant than what the troops from northern Russia ared used to in January. Huh. Meanwhile in Poland: https://twitter.com/sob_pl/status/1484110811433943040?s=21
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Jan 20, 2022 11:47
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Budzilla posted:You don't have to compare it to Northern Cyprus. It is unserviced by (most) Russian banks and companies because of sanctions. It is a no-brainer for a company to choose between doing business between the EU and Crimea. I know, it's a good comparison in that they're both unrecognised, economically depressed regions due to sanctions that were invaded for ethnic nationalism. The northern Cyprus grumblings to reunite with the Greeks shows that what the people on the ground actually want might not be the same as what the nationalist government claims
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Jan 20, 2022 11:58
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With 100K+ troops in camps on the border, wouldn't Omicron be running wild through the whole force by now?
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Jan 20, 2022 12:21
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Comstar posted:With 100K+ troops in camps on the border, wouldn't Omicron be running wild through the whole force by now? It's an army, not a festival. Soldiers are naturally isolated from each other most of the time. Ultimately it depends on how accommodation etc. are arranged. (In Finland conscripts have been doing a six week rotation where you serve 2 weeks at garrison, 2 weeks in field camp, and 2 weeks on home leave to minimize contacts.) Soldiers don't have that much say over if they want to take the Sputnik, too, so they well might be more protected than civilians of same age in Russia. Nenonen fucked around with this message at 12:42 on Jan 20, 2022 |
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Jan 20, 2022 12:39
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How are soldiers isolated from each other, sharing barracks, tents, showers and mess halls? This is ridiculous. As for sputnik, even the Russians arent trying to claim that the vaccine makes you immune to omicron. You might not get pneumonia but unlikely to do much of anything other than lie and wait. As for Belarus involvement, I just read a piece that they still havent selected a commander for the excersize. Luka doesnt want a Russian to command on our turf and Russians wont let Luka command. Seems likely that both armies will have their own command like previous times. Which makes northern invasion into UA pretty much 0 percent as well as severely diminishing psyops factor to disperse Ukranian resurces to fortify BY border.
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Jan 20, 2022 13:00
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Sekenr posted:How are soldiers isolated from each other, sharing barracks, tents, showers and mess halls? This is ridiculous. This isn't some geriatric camping trip. Most of the soldiers are young and physically in good shape. They're also most definitely vaccinated. But even if there are omicron breakthrough cases, it won't be a big deal. People get sick and then they get better.
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Jan 20, 2022 13:35
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https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1484171183264129025 Nice Engrish, Mr. Zelenskyy. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1484171144743714818
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Jan 20, 2022 16:30
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HonorableTB posted:When the oil runs out the collapse of the petrostates is going to be quite the sight to see Gas going below $2 a gallon in 2012 destroyed Venezuela and caused a good dozen of countries a lot of political turmoil. Electric vehicles becoming the average car on the road would be enough and (looks at every carmakers factory plans and investment announcements) welp. 10 years before it’s the standard for all new cars, another 15 for it to filter through to the preowned market.
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Jan 20, 2022 16:38
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1484171183264129025 oh poo poo is this because держава in Ukrainian just means the neutral "state"
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Jan 20, 2022 16:42
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I think he may intentionally have said what he did, but yeah, держава is nation/state/country, and different languages have different terms for “superpower” - in Latvian, for example, it’s “big country” (not kidding).
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Jan 20, 2022 16:49
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Oh man zelensky doing the Ukrainian equivalent of Serbia strong. But with more stuffy suits and less accordions
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Jan 20, 2022 17:13
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https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/blinken-says-russian-attack-ukraine-could-come-very-short-notice-2022-01-19/quote:Biden and his team have prepared a broad set of sanctions and other economic penalties to impose on Russia in the event of an invasion and the U.S. president said Russian companies could lose the ability to use the U.S. dollar. OK, if this actually happens, it's going to be much more of a nuclear move than SWIFT ban would've been. Russia pays for approximately 40% of its trades with USD.
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Jan 20, 2022 18:40
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/blinken-says-russian-attack-ukraine-could-come-very-short-notice-2022-01-19/ They'll just turn to the euro, no?
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Jan 20, 2022 18:46
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Oracle posted:They'll just turn to the euro, no? Last I checked, euro trees don't grow in Russia. Besides, not all recipients will accept the euro, and the bottom will immediately fall off the rouble.
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Jan 20, 2022 18:49
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I remember the race to 100 roubles / USD in the aftermath of Crimea... didn't do much then. Hopefully this time the thread is more credible.
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Jan 20, 2022 18:55
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I wonder if Russia would back off if Ukraine turned the water back on for Crimea?
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Jan 20, 2022 18:57
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Charliegrs posted:I wonder if Russia would back off if Ukraine turned the water back on for Crimea? I think the best solution to the crisis is recognizing Russia's sovereignty over Crimea, Russian withdrawal from the Donbass, normalizing relations, and maybe saying Ukraine won't join NATO for 20 years or something to kick the can long enough that Putin won't view it as his problem anymore. The US pretends not to believe in spheres of influence, but imagine how much we'd freak out if China started establishing bases in the Western Hemisphere and transferring arms to Mexico while refusing to rule out a full on military alliance. Turkey also obviously views its near abroad as part of its sphere of influence, as it's occupying portions of two of its neighbors (one of which the US is also partially occupying), with regular incursions into the territory of a third, so this NATO solidarity against the concept of great powers having interests outside their borders is absurd. If recognizing Russia's regional influence prevents an invasion, it seems better to me than punishing Russia after the fact, especially since other nearby targets of potential Russian hostility are already in the EU and/or NATO--there's no slippery slope to fall down. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 19:22 on Jan 20, 2022 |
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Jan 20, 2022 19:14
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Charliegrs posted:I wonder if Russia would back off if Ukraine turned the water back on for Crimea? There is no need to guess. They already have presented us a non-negotiable list of explicit demands that we need to fulfill for them not to attack Ukraine. Non-negotiable means that anything less than the full list leads to an attack.
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Jan 20, 2022 19:25
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Sinteres posted:I think the best solution to the crisis is recognizing Russia's sovereignty over Crimea, Russian withdrawal from the Donbass, normalizing relations, and maybe saying Ukraine won't join NATO for 20 years or something to kick the can long enough that Putin won't view it as his problem anymore. The US pretends not to believe in spheres of influence, but imagine how much we'd freak out if China started establishing bases in the Western Hemisphere and transferring arms to Mexico while refusing to rule out a full on military alliance. Turkey also obviously views its near abroad as part of its sphere of influence, as it's occupying portions of two of its neighbors (one of which the US is also partially occupying), with regular incursions into the territory of a third, so this NATO solidarity against the concept of great powers having interests outside their borders is absurd. Sure, rewarding Putin with everything he wanted to get from his actions. I'm sure there won't be any consequences to that. Oh wait, no, this hillside is made entirely of grease and lube.
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Jan 20, 2022 19:28
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Sinteres posted:I think the best solution to the crisis is recognizing Russia's sovereignty over Crimea, Russian withdrawal from the Donbass, normalizing relations, and maybe saying Ukraine won't join NATO for 20 years or something to kick the can long enough that Putin won't view it as his problem anymore. The US pretends not to believe in spheres of influence, but imagine how much we'd freak out if China started establishing bases in the Western Hemisphere and transferring arms to Mexico while refusing to rule out a full on military alliance. Turkey also obviously views its near abroad as part of its sphere of influence, as it's occupying portions of two of its neighbors (one of which the US is also partially occupying), with regular incursions into the territory of a third, so this NATO solidarity against the concept of great powers having interests outside their borders is absurd. None of it would work. The Kremlin understands the situation like if they want to be treated like big boys Russia has to show its strength. Since economically they are smaller than the state of California or South Korea or something, and economy is just too much work gotta cut corners and rattle the sabers. Conceding to this will just make them demand their "rightful due" such as the baltics and who knows what else.
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Jan 20, 2022 19:43
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Lord Awkward posted:Sure, rewarding Putin with everything he wanted to get from his actions. I'm sure there won't be any consequences to that. Oh wait, no, this hillside is made entirely of grease and lube. Spheres of influence for me, not for thee isn't really much of a principle to sacrifice Ukraine over. Russia put up with more encroachments on their border than even gung ho optimists would have guessed in 1991, and now that they're drawing a hard line everyone who got drunk off the glory years of post-Cold War rollback is going "where the gently caress is this coming from???" while pretending to be purely innocent pacifists who've never violated another country's sovereignty. From Russia's perspective, the slippery slope is the US making a bad faith pledge about NATO enlargement and partnership with Russia and then doing everything it could to eradicate Russian influence both in its neighboring countries and (more forcefully) beyond its immediate grasp.
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Jan 20, 2022 19:44
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Sinteres posted:I think the best solution to the crisis is recognizing Russia's sovereignty over Crimea, Russian withdrawal from the Donbass, normalizing relations, and maybe saying Ukraine won't join NATO for 20 years or something to kick the can long enough that Putin won't view it as his problem anymore. The US pretends not to believe in spheres of influence, but imagine how much we'd freak out if China started establishing bases in the Western Hemisphere and transferring arms to Mexico while refusing to rule out a full on military alliance. Turkey also obviously views its near abroad as part of its sphere of influence, as it's occupying portions of two of its neighbors (one of which the US is also partially occupying), with regular incursions into the territory of a third, so this NATO solidarity against the concept of great powers having interests outside their borders is absurd. Sinteres posted:If recognizing Russia's regional influence prevents an invasion, it seems better to me than punishing Russia after the fact, especially since other nearby targets of potential Russian hostility are already in the EU and/or NATO--there's no slippery slope to fall down.
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Jan 20, 2022 19:48
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A Buttery Pastry posted:Your suggestion only makes sense if you assume Russia isn't gonna try something else at some point whenever Putin's popularity flags. Making any of his adventures more costly and drawn out makes military adventurism less viable for boosting his numbers, which would encourage him to go a different route. Where else would Russia trying something even make sense? As I said, any other country we give a poo poo about is already in NATO or the EU. I guess the EU still lets Turkey push around Cyprus sometimes, so maybe EU membership wouldn't be a total guarantee against meddling with Finland, but Finland found a way to peacefully manage its relationship with the Soviet Union for decades after World War 2, so I think it can manage to thread the needle with Putin too.
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Jan 20, 2022 19:51
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Sinteres posted:Spheres of influence for me, not for thee isn't really much of a principle to sacrifice Ukraine over. Russia put up with more encroachments on their border than even gung ho optimists would have guessed in 1991, and now that they're drawing a hard line everyone who got drunk off the glory years of post-Cold War rollback is going "where the gently caress is this coming from???" while pretending to be purely innocent pacifists who've never violated another country's sovereignty. From Russia's perspective, the slippery slope is the US making a bad faith pledge about NATO enlargement and partnership with Russia and then doing everything it could to eradicate Russian influence both in its neighboring countries and (more forcefully) beyond its immediate grasp. What is this nonsense. What encroachments? Russia so far encroached on Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine while simultaniously willingly gave the bloody island Damanskiy to China, who encroached on Russia?
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Jan 20, 2022 19:52
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Once again, countries voluntarily joining up through diplomatic efforts to pursue a common goal, and countries being put into vassal-like bondage by force aren't the same thing, and calling them both "creating spheres of influence" is tantamount to arguing in bad faith and parroting Sputnik propaganda. Countries that are threatened by free cooperation of others (because they profit from preying on the weak and isolated) are the problem and their demands to explicitly harm other countries shouldn't be entertained, obviously.
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Jan 20, 2022 19:53
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steinrokkan posted:Once again, countries voluntarily joining up through diplomatic efforts to pursue a common goal and countries being put into vassal-like bondage by force aren't the same thing, and calling them both "creating spheres of influence" is tantamount to arguing in bad faith and parroting Sputnik propaganda. Countries that are threatened by free cooperation of others are the problem and their demands to explicitly harm other countries shouldn't be entertained, obviously. So are you seriously suggesting the US would have no problem with Mexico joining a military alliance with China as long as it was voluntary? Or that Syria and Cyprus voluntarily agreed to have their territory occupied by two and one NATO members respectively? Sekenr posted:What is this nonsense. What encroachments? Russia so far encroached on Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine while simultaniously willingly gave the bloody island Damanskiy to China, who encroached on Russia? I didn't mean that NATO actually invaded Russia, just that it kept extending its guarantees to Russia's border and Russia finally drew the line around Ukraine as off limits.
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Jan 20, 2022 19:54
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Putin’s in this situation in the first place due to his inability to understand the idea of achieving policy objectives through being nice instead of armies, assasinations, cyberattacks, and weird mind games. Nothing the Ukraine or the US does will stop home from being super aggressive. It’s the only trick in his book.
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Jan 20, 2022 19:55
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Sinteres posted:So are you seriously suggesting the US would have no problem with Mexico joining a military alliance with China as long as it was voluntary? Or that Syria and Cyprus voluntarily agreed to have their territory occupied by two and one NATO members respectively? Nobody in this thread has defended American FP, take your whataboutism and shove it
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Jan 20, 2022 19:56
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Putin’s in this situation in the first place due to his inability to understand the idea of achieving policy objectives through being nice instead of armies, assasinations, cyberattacks, and weird mind games. Nothing the Ukraine or the US does will stop home from being super aggressive. It’s the only trick in his book. You may as well just pull out the Munich analogy at this point, now that you're presenting him as an irrational actor whose only goal is to grasp for more and more regardless of the actions of external powers. steinrokkan posted:Nobody in this thread has defended American FP, take your whataboutism and shove it The US is explicitly invoking a principle neither it nor Turkey actually believes to justify an extremely punitive response to Russia's actions, so I think pointing out the hypocrisy is relevant. If you think the country that violates sovereignty more than others is a good guarantor of international stability and should have the power to unilaterally destroy the economy of anyone who steps out of line, that's fine; I'm just saying I think it's bad. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 19:59 on Jan 20, 2022 |
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Jan 20, 2022 19:56
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Sinteres posted:You may as well just pull out the Munich analogy at this point, now that you're presenting him as an irrational actor whose only goal is to grasp for more and more regardless of the actions of external powers. Since he's and other Russian elites are rational actors responding to actions of others, I can only assume you would agree it's rational to pressure Russia and squeeze Putin until he gives up or somebody finally offs him.
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Jan 20, 2022 19:58
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Because appeasing aggressive autocrats has always worked so well.
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Jan 20, 2022 19:59
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steinrokkan posted:Nobody in this thread has defended American FP, take your whataboutism and shove it Sinteres posted:You may as well just pull out the Munich analogy at this point, now that you're presenting him as an irrational actor whose only goal is to grasp for more and more regardless of the actions of external powers.
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Jan 20, 2022 20:00
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anilEhilated posted:Because appeasing aggressive autocrats has always worked so well. Hey, there's the Munich analogy after all. steinrokkan posted:Since he's and other Russian elites are rational actors responding to actions of others, I can only assume you would agree it's rational to pressure Russia and squeeze Putin until he gives up or somebody finally offs him. I think carrots and sticks instead of just sticks would be better, and would take out the weird part about trying to encourage Russians to assassinate their head of state. When you say squeeze Putin, what you mean is immiserate Russians through economic warfare. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 20:03 on Jan 20, 2022 |
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Jan 20, 2022 20:00
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Sinteres posted:So are you seriously suggesting the US would have no problem with Mexico joining a military alliance with China as long as it was voluntary? Or that Syria and Cyprus voluntarily agreed to have their territory occupied by two and one NATO members respectively? So? Ukraine is clearly set upon self determination without asking the go ahead from Moscow, everone should support that not Putin's bullshit which they cant back up in any case.
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Jan 20, 2022 20:05
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