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Sinteres posted:As a response to NATO's "our offer is this, nothing" rhetoric, I think it's basically like for like. I hope it's not their final position though, because it's pretty nuts. It's almost as if it's not a good faith list of demands at all. It's almost as if it's meant to provide propaganda cover for an imperial war of aggression and expansion against a sovereign nation.
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Jan 20, 2022 22:09
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Sinteres posted:Because it's better than leaving Ukraine to hang while promising to punish Russia over their corpse I guess? i feel like im having a stroke because there's been literal years of negotiation with russia and multiple agreements to try and defuse the crisis in donbas. russia is effectively saying "no, that isn't good enough" and threatening to instigate a war with ukraine unless it can extract concessions that no sovereign country would ever agree to
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Jan 20, 2022 22:12
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If this were Europa Universalis, Putin is currently Fabricating Claims and Sending Diplomatic Insults to generate a casus belli for invasion that doesn't result in a -3 stability hit. Maybe this will make more sense to some of you.
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Jan 20, 2022 22:15
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QuoProQuid posted:just to be clear, Russia’s specific demands to de-escalate are: https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790803/?lang=en
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Jan 20, 2022 22:15
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cat botherer posted:Those sound like pretty reasonable demands in line with their security interests. Expansion of NATO around Russia, and especially close-range missiles, are absolutely provocations. The USA would treat them as such as well. we nearly nuked cuba over MRBMs so yeah absolutely the US would treat it as such The rest of it, not so much. Come on, telling NATO they no longer get to pick who they want in their alliance? Are you kidding? Essentially removing sovereignty of independent states as to how they use their military and diplomacy and with whom they can do it? LMFAO get real
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Jan 20, 2022 22:16
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Sinteres posted:The Soviets did, over Cuban objections, which is what I want the US to do to Ukraine, so this isn't the own you think it is. Castro later admitted that he was wrong.
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Jan 20, 2022 22:17
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cat botherer posted:Those sound like pretty reasonable demands in line with their security interests. Expansion of NATO around Russia, and especially close-range missiles, are absolutely provocations. The USA would treat them as such as well. Great insights from Mr. re-reg here (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 20, 2022 22:23
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:i still struggle to see what utility "spheres of influence" and buffer regions have in an age of nuclear powers. i wouldn't care about a mexico-china alliance (in a realpolitik sense, i'll leave the right to self-determination out of the consideration for now) because a staging ground for a conventional invasion doesn't mean anything to a country with a robust nuclear triad INF Treaty line item is a legitimate Russian demand, imo, because Trump withdrew from the treaty while yelling about Russian rocket bases sheltering Obama’s real birth certificate.
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Jan 20, 2022 22:27
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I find it interesting that this thread recently mirrors the dynamic of the Israel/Palestine thread (years back) where you'd get pretty measured discussion, punctuated by a revolving door of random shills popping in periodically to regurgitate the same tired Hasbara talking points. For less meta commentary: https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1484168444635398146?t=5ikqNSrabg-jf_iBrAhgLA&s=19
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Jan 20, 2022 22:30
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/20/us-russia-ukraine-government-sanctionsquote:
Edit: Also, Navalnyi’s team alleges to have gotten a cache of interior photos for Putin’s Black Sea “palace”. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OjYl1xvssJY cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 22:41 on Jan 20, 2022 |
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Jan 20, 2022 22:35
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Cugel the Clever posted:I find it interesting that this thread recently mirrors the dynamic of the Israel/Palestine thread (years back) where you'd get pretty measured discussion, punctuated by a revolving door of random shills popping in periodically to regurgitate the same tired Hasbara talking points. I've differed from the Russian preferences, while you're just saying exactly what the NATO talking points are, so maybe you shouldn't be talking about who's shilling for whom.
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Jan 20, 2022 22:59
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cinci zoo sniper posted:INF Treaty line item is a legitimate Russian demand, imo, because Trump withdrew from the treaty while yelling about Russian rocket bases sheltering Obama’s real birth certificate. i agree that it's a legitimate demand, and the deployment of thaad and intermediate nukes is a potential threat to russian security. the fact that a renegotiation of relevant treaties is not the front and central demand (or at least is not coming across as the primary demand here in america) is what i find questionable. also it was my impression at the time that russia didn't seem particularly bothered when trump tore up the inf treay
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Jan 20, 2022 23:00
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/20/us-russia-ukraine-government-sanctions
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Jan 20, 2022 23:01
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Pro-West coups are known as color revolutions, but pro-Russian coups which may or may not actually happen are to be met with preemptive sanctions.
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Jan 20, 2022 23:03
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steinrokkan posted:Great insights from Mr. re-reg here (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 20, 2022 23:04
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Sinteres posted:Pro-West coups are known as color revolutions, but pro-Russian coups which may or may not actually happen are to be met with preemptive sanctions. Jesus loving Christ, how ghoulish can somebody be. Yes, they are totally the same thing. When Russia invades a country with its military to either entrench a dictatorial regime, or to install a new cadre of brutal tyrants or outright mafia style gangsters to rule over territory it takes by lethal force, it's the same thing as when people replace a dictator (especially one who tried to deal with protests by shooting live ammunition into people) with an elected government that reflects their interests. There's few better indicators that you are dealing with a cynical bootlicker than when they start throwing around "color revolutions". There has never been a popular movement these freaks wouldn't like to see crushed and brutalized under the steel toed boots of fash strongmen. It's absolutely sickening this is the sort of discourse we have to put up with in here in the name of "discussion" steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 23:14 on Jan 20, 2022 |
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Jan 20, 2022 23:08
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Sinteres posted:Pro-West coups are known as color revolutions, but pro-Russian coups which may or may not actually happen are to be met with preemptive sanctions. Even given this logic, Ukraine was met with pre-emptive invasion in Crimea, so a sanctions regime seems like the more diplomatic approach.
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Jan 20, 2022 23:12
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Panzeh posted:Even given this logic, Ukraine was met with pre-emptive invasion in Crimea, so a sanctions regime seems like the more diplomatic approach. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 23:18 on Jan 20, 2022 |
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Jan 20, 2022 23:16
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cat botherer posted:Sorry bud, lost my account like 14 years ago after the password thing. I should have known better than to buy a new account and post in D&D - an absolutely bizarre and stupid decision by any measure. Yeah, right.
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Jan 20, 2022 23:18
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Are you guys really doing the thing where you accuse other posters of being Russian agents again?
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Jan 20, 2022 23:18
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Sinteres posted:Maybe we could try de-escalation, where Russia withdraws from some of the territory they're currently occupying and some of the sanctions are withdrawn in return. And some of Russia's strategic concerns could be addressed, and Russia in turn could be a better neighbor and stop threatening Ukraine's security. Israel routinely bombs Iranian forces in Syria because they can't possibly allow even a weaker enemy country to have a presence near their border, and the US obviously supports this, but when Russia has concerns about a massive alliance that's far stronger than it continuing to bolster its strength near Russia's borders, they're paranoid and any attempt they make to address the situation is a monstrous act of barbarism from the Western perspective. The real American argument is that we're strong enough that we'll do what we want to do without any real concessions to assuage Russian concerns, and any attempt by Russia to stop us will be met with crippling sanctions that will immiserate the people of Russia. You are living in a delusional fantasy world where giving the bully what he wants somehow doesn't result in the bully coming back to take more of your poo poo the next day. I even used a different analogy for you. Russia is the military equal to NATO simply because it has a vast nuclear arsenal. That's all you need to keep big bad scary NATO away from you.
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Jan 20, 2022 23:20
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HonorableTB posted:You are living in a delusional fantasy world where giving the bully what he wants somehow doesn't result in the bully coming back to take more of your poo poo the next day. I even used a different analogy for you. What if we're the bully and Russia's right to be paranoid?
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Jan 20, 2022 23:21
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Paladinus posted:Yeah, right.
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Jan 20, 2022 23:21
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Sinteres posted:What if we're the bully and Russia's right to be paranoid? We're the gym coach coming to break up the fight where the Russian bully is currently giving the weaker, smaller Ukrainian boy a swirlie in the toilet that's lasted 8 years already.
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Jan 20, 2022 23:22
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Sinteres posted:What if we're the bully and Russia's right to be paranoid? So "hey just like USA and Turkey" only works when framed in reverse I guess.
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Jan 20, 2022 23:23
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Sinteres posted:Maybe we could try de-escalation, where Russia withdraws from some of the territory they're currently occupying and some of the sanctions are withdrawn in return. And some of Russia's strategic concerns could be addressed, and Russia in turn could be a better neighbor and stop threatening Ukraine's security. Israel routinely bombs Iranian forces in Syria because they can't possibly allow even a weaker enemy country to have a presence near their border, and the US obviously supports this, but when Russia has concerns about a massive alliance that's far stronger than it continuing to bolster its strength near Russia's borders, they're paranoid and any attempt they make to address the situation is a monstrous act of barbarism from the Western perspective. The real American argument is that we're strong enough that we'll do what we want to do without any real concessions to assuage Russian concerns, and any attempt by Russia to stop us will be met with crippling sanctions that will immiserate the people of Russia. In the real world, Russia has driven a bunch of units right up to the Ukranian border, made a list of demands, amped up the rhetoric about how Kiev is an illegitimate state, and sent out press about how they'd probably win a nuclear war. I'm sure it's very much a self-defensive military invasion on the plate here. Putin here is Dubya. A grand total of three NATO countries border Russia. Most of its border is not, in fact, adjacent to a NATO country. However, Russian aggression makes its neighbors want to be a part of that alliance. I wonder why. Sinteres posted:What if we're the bully and Russia's right to be paranoid? I'm sure Ukranian tanks are on their way to Moscow any second now.
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Jan 20, 2022 23:23
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Grape posted:So "hey just like USA and Turkey" only works when framed in reverse I guess. If China had troops in Mexico I'd be pretty concerned, personally! I don't think American policymakers are wrong for secretly believing it's okay for the US to have a sphere of influence, but for adamantly declaring that Russia can't have one by pretending to believe in universal principles they don't believe in. From the Russian perspective its stronger, far wealthier adversary who won the Cold War and promised to work toward partnership spent the next few decades sytematically dismantling Russian influence at every opportunity, while expanding its alliance to Russia's doorstep. Of course Russia thinks we're bullies. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 23:28 on Jan 20, 2022 |
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Jan 20, 2022 23:25
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Sinteres posted:If China had troops in Mexico I'd be pretty concerned, personally! I don't think American policymakers are wrong for secretly believing it's okay for the US to have a sphere of influence, but for adamantly declaring that Russia can't have one by pretending to believe in universal principles they don't believe in. From the Russian perspective its stronger, far wealthier adversary who won the Cold War and promised to work toward partnership spent the next few decades sytematically dismantling Russian influence at every opportunity, while expanding its alliance to Russia's doorstep. Of course Russia thinks we're bullies. Okay but Russians aren't the ones making the decisions, other Americans like me are.
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Jan 20, 2022 23:29
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Sinteres posted:If China had troops in Mexico I'd be pretty concerned, personally! I don't think American policymakers are wrong for secretly believing it's okay for the US to have a sphere of influence, but for adamantly declaring that Russia can't have one by pretending to believe in universal principles they don't believe in. From the Russian perspective its stronger, far wealthier adversary who won the Cold War and promised to work toward partnership spent the next few decades sytematically dismantling Russian influence at every opportunity, while expanding its alliance to Russia's doorstep. Of course Russia thinks we're bullies. This is such a stunningly idealistic and naive view that I wonder if you've ever heard of realpolitk before
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Jan 20, 2022 23:29
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Sinteres posted:Maybe we could try de-escalation, where Russia withdraws from some of the territory they're currently occupying and some of the sanctions are withdrawn in return. And some of Russia's strategic concerns could be addressed, and Russia in turn could be a better neighbor and stop threatening Ukraine's security. Israel routinely bombs Iranian forces in Syria because they can't possibly allow even a weaker enemy country to have a presence near their border, and the US obviously supports this, but when Russia has concerns about a massive alliance that's far stronger than it continuing to bolster its strength near Russia's borders, they're paranoid and any attempt they make to address the situation is a monstrous act of barbarism from the Western perspective. The real American argument is that we're strong enough that we'll do what we want to do without any real concessions to assuage Russian concerns, and any attempt by Russia to stop us will be met with crippling sanctions that will immiserate the people of Russia. there have been attempts to de-escalate on the issue of donbass through the minsk protocol, which collapsed after separatists attacked dontesk's airport. minsk ii, which was eventually signed, has been defined by repeated violations by russia and russia's partners like, again, im not sure what more can be done here because it is clear that russia wants conflict. its posture for the last few months has been one of repeatedly comparing the government of ukraine to nazis and not taking seriously any attempts to reach a peaceful settlement. it has been nothing but antagonistic since it literally invaded ukraine in 2014 and instigated a civil war in its eastern territories.
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Jan 20, 2022 23:30
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Grape posted:Okay but Russians aren't the ones making the decisions, other Americans like me are. If the only way to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO is to invade it, invading it becomes a rational policy aim, just as countries work to develop nuclear weapons in an attempt to become un-invadable. The US is obviously attempting to counter that by threatening crippling sanctions that will hurt Russia's people more than anything, but it could very easily just say yeah we obviously aren't going to invite Ukraine any time soon, especially since Russia already occupies part of their territory. So yes, Americans are the ones creating the conditions Russia is responding to.
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Jan 20, 2022 23:31
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Sinteres posted:If China had troops in Mexico I'd be pretty concerned, personally! I don't think American policymakers are wrong for secretly believing it's okay for the US to have a sphere of influence, but for adamantly declaring that Russia can't have one by pretending to believe in universal principles they don't believe in. From the Russian perspective its stronger, far wealthier adversary who won the Cold War and promised to work toward partnership spent the next few decades sytematically dismantling Russian influence at every opportunity, while expanding its alliance to Russia's doorstep. Of course Russia thinks we're bullies. Okay enough. Russia is the one amping up. Russia is the one moving military units to invade a sovereign nation. Russia was already bordered by NATO countries. Stop justifying Russian aggression because everything Putin is doing is not only unnecessary (unless you are under some delusion that NATO wants to invade Russia?) its outright uncalled for. Russia remains the aggressor here. Sinteres posted:If the only way to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO is to invade it, invading it becomes a rational policy aim, just as countries work to develop nuclear weapons in an attempt to become un-invadable. The US is obviously attempting to counter that by threatening crippling sanctions that will hurt Russia's people more than anything, but it could very easily just say yeah we obviously aren't going to invite Ukraine any time soon, especially since Russia already occupies part of their territory. So yes, Americans are the ones creating the conditions Russia is responding to. This is such a loving hot take: Russia already annexed portions of Ukraine and Crimea. Russia is the aggressor. When did NATO annex Russian territory to justify Putin's paranoia? You are telling us that Ukraine is somehow bullying a major world power by wanting to maintain their sovereignty in the face of overt aggressive military threats and actions? What?
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Jan 20, 2022 23:31
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CommieGIR posted:Okay enough. Russia is the one amping up. Russia is the one moving military units to invade a sovereign nation. Russia was already bordered by NATO countries. Is that your moderator voice, or are you debating? Honest question, not trying to sass.
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Jan 20, 2022 23:32
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Sinteres posted:If the only way to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO is to invade it, invading it becomes a rational policy aim, just as countries work to develop nuclear weapons in an attempt to become un-invadable. The US is obviously attempting to counter that by threatening crippling sanctions that will hurt Russia's people more than anything, but it could very easily just say yeah we obviously aren't going to invite Ukraine any time soon, especially since Russia already occupies part of their territory. So yes, Americans are the ones creating the conditions Russia is responding to. If the only way to prevent Russia from pressuring and being aggressive toward them is to join NATO, joining it becomes a rational policy for former Warsaw Pact and Soviet states, just as countries work to develop nuclear weapons in an attempt to become un-invadable. Russia is obviously attempting to counter that by invading and meddling in elections of the nation's that have yet to join NATO, actions that will hurt those countries' people more than anything, but it could very easily just say yeah we obviously aren't going to invade Ukraine any time soon, especially since NATO already has territory on Russia's border. So yes, Russians are the ones creating the conditions NATO is responding to.
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Jan 20, 2022 23:35
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Sinteres posted:Is that your moderator voice, or are you debating? Honest question, not trying to sass. Right now, debating. But the idea that you honestly think Russia is somehow defending its interest is really weird. So lets say Russia takes Ukraine: OH NO! Poland is a NATO member. Now there's a NATO member on Russian boarders (ignoring the other NATO countries that already border Russia) Its downright insane to justify Putin's actions here given his rhetoric and his overt aggressive actions.
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Jan 20, 2022 23:35
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Sinteres posted:Is that your moderator voice, or are you debating? Honest question, not trying to sass. why does it matter
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Jan 20, 2022 23:36
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CommieGIR posted:Right now, debating. Putting it that way isn't very reassuring that more than one viewpoint is permitted in this thread, so I'll bow out. Thanks for the warning anyway.
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Jan 20, 2022 23:37
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:i agree that it's a legitimate demand, and the deployment of thaad and intermediate nukes is a potential threat to russian security. the fact that a renegotiation of relevant treaties is not the front and central demand (or at least is not coming across as the primary demand here in america) is what i find questionable. Renegotiation of INF, as far as I can tell, is happening privately in a parallel flow - those were a major part of Russia-US bilateral talks earlier this month. I think it is the only exception where Russia may agree to separate one of their demands from the others. And Russia was actually bothered enough to (chronologically after Trump’s announcement): 1) Accept US invitation to try to settle differences 2) Invite US to continue the conversation (Trump administration ignored the invitation) — US confirms withdrawal in 6 months and pauses the participation — 3) Temporarily pause (instead of withdrawing) treaty participation while offering US a way out 4) Indeterminately pause (instead of withdrawing) treaty participation — US withdraws from the treaty — — 1 month passes — 5) Offer NATO to discuss a separate INF-style treaty for Europe (ignored) — 1 year passes 6) Reiterate new NATO treaty offer (ignored) 7) Offer US and NATO to develop, together, specific solutions to determine and verify INF compliance on all topics contested by either side (ignored) Right now, Russia de jure is still committed to the treaty - just not observing it, since why would they?
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Jan 20, 2022 23:37
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Sinteres posted:If the only way to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO is to invade it, invading it becomes a rational policy aim, just as countries work to develop nuclear weapons in an attempt to become un-invadable. The US is obviously attempting to counter that by threatening crippling sanctions that will hurt Russia's people more than anything, but it could very easily just say yeah we obviously aren't going to invite Ukraine any time soon, especially since Russia already occupies part of their territory. So yes, Americans are the ones creating the conditions Russia is responding to. Biden actually did say that just last night: https://twitter.com/JDiamond1/status/1483916889986420739 Personally I'd be all for a permanent block on Ukraine joining NATO if it meant good faith dealings between Russia and Ukraine, I just think it's very likely they would not - it's not like Ukraine was looking to join NATO in 2014 before the annexation of Crimea and war in Donbass
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Jan 20, 2022 23:37
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cat botherer posted:Ok, well who am I then? Why do you give a poo poo? Are you that upset at anyone new here that disagrees with you? Huh.
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Jan 20, 2022 23:40
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