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cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Somaen posted:

I've not been following it closely but the headlines seemed to have turned from "Kadyrov demands public apologies for Instagram comments" and "Kadyrov tortures Chechens" to him sending officers to other regions to kidnap and bring him the people for him personally to torture :stare:

After nemtsovs murder there was grumbling on the fsb related media that they know who ordered it but the investigation was squashed due to being too close to the whole Kadyrov circle. Being able to get away with this must be fuelling a lot of resentment

He’s currently busy torturing family members of Chechen civil activists or journalists. An article in Russian - https://theins.ru/news/247379 - or check the thread below for summary in English:

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1473795647576973326

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Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Blue beret is airborne troops. This means Russia has started the invasion by taking strategic objectives like train bridges by air. We are all going to die now :derp:

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


I lived in Ukraine for two years and here are my sources for news on Twitter. Christopher Miller was a Peace Corps volunteer too, I believe.

https://twitter.com/JaneLytv?s=20

https://twitter.com/Kateryna_Kruk?s=20

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM?s=20

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

The German navy chief who spoke about Russia and Ukraine has been canned (or, rather, being forced to leave) lol: https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutscher-marinechef-kay-achim-schoenbach-muss-gehen-a-454d5539-5d6a-4880-ba23-21ee7e363dc0

Not surprising but does suggest that Germany wants there to be no misunderstanding of its position.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011
Probation
Can't post for 3 hours!
Soiled Meat
A good reminder why you never, ever let a member of any military branch speak out on any sort of policy. Ideally by prohibitig them from doing so by law.

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day

QuoProQuid posted:

The German navy chief who spoke about Russia and Ukraine has been canned (or, rather, being forced to leave) lol: https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutscher-marinechef-kay-achim-schoenbach-muss-gehen-a-454d5539-5d6a-4880-ba23-21ee7e363dc0

Not surprising but does suggest that Germany wants there to be no misunderstanding of its position.

You say that, but rumor mill is that the Germans are getting torqued by Russia behind the scenes over gas prices, and with poo poo like blocking the Estonian munitions transfer it's like Molotov–Ribbentrop never ended.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011
Probation
Can't post for 3 hours!
Soiled Meat

Conspiratiorist posted:

You say that, but rumor mill is that the Germans are getting torqued by Russia behind the scenes over gas prices, and with poo poo like blocking the Estonian munitions transfer it's like Molotov–Ribbentrop never ended.

Even if Germany was getting screwed over re. energy, it wouldn't be some Admiral popping off about the importance of protecting Christianity to let the people know.

Wistful of Dollars
Aug 25, 2009

QuoProQuid posted:

The German navy chief who spoke about Russia and Ukraine has been canned (or, rather, being forced to leave) lol: https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutscher-marinechef-kay-achim-schoenbach-muss-gehen-a-454d5539-5d6a-4880-ba23-21ee7e363dc0

Not surprising but does suggest that Germany wants there to be no misunderstanding of its position.

what a way to sink your career.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!
Good thing people haven't been paying attention to Zhirinovsky lately. He suggested Russia should start nuking America and Europe to reboot the failed Western civilisation.

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day

steinrokkan posted:

Even if Germany was getting screwed over re. energy, it wouldn't be some Admiral popping off about the importance of protecting Christianity to let the people know.

Oh, of course. The optics on all the poo poo he said were super bad.

But the messaging they want to send needn't be consistent with actual policy as implemented.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011
Probation
Can't post for 3 hours!
Soiled Meat
Also one of the cool things about the EU is that Russia can't selectively target countries and threaten them with increased costs. Russia has no control over where their gas goes after it enters the EU, so if they try to do a price racket, the whole EU is going to feel it because the whole EU is a single market, and there's no way to conceal or limit that.

So Russia can't very well threaten Germany because Germany is, from Russian point of view, inseparable from the rest of the Union.

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day
Yeah, good thing the rest of the Union isn't experiencing an energy crisis so they can just pick up the slack.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011
Probation
Can't post for 3 hours!
Soiled Meat

Conspiratiorist posted:

Yeah, good thing the rest of the Union isn't experiencing an energy crisis so they can just pick up the slack.

Of course they are. But what it means is that they can't threaten one country with an even worse crisis to divide and conquer,the whole union would feel that and have a reason to respond.

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day
The unified response has been ambivalence.

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

Paladinus posted:

Good thing people haven't been paying attention to Zhirinovsky lately. He suggested Russia should start nuking America and Europe to reboot the failed Western civilisation.
He can say that easily if he has no responsibility on the matter. If he was ever in power he would think twice before committing to wiping out his own nation.
Even mentioning him here feels like clancychat.

anilEhilated
Feb 17, 2014

But I say fuck the rain.

Grimey Drawer

Grouchio posted:

He can say that easily if he has no responsibility on the matter. If he was ever in power he would think twice before committing to wiping out his own nation.
Even mentioning him here feels like clancychat.
Fairly sure that the only purpose of his life is to make Putin look reasonable.

GABA ghoul
Oct 29, 2011

Conspiratiorist posted:

You say that, but rumor mill is that the Germans are getting torqued by Russia behind the scenes over gas prices, and with poo poo like blocking the Estonian munitions transfer it's like Molotov–Ribbentrop never ended.

Germany doesn't really have an unusual relation in regards to gas with Russia. That's mostly uninformed op-ed claptrap. Many countries like Italy, the UK or the Netherlands have a higher per capita gas consumption than Germany and Russia's share of gas imports in Germany is pretty average for the EU. Germany also has a lot of price stable long term gas contracts, which allowed it to weather the energy crisis better than a lot of other European countries that rely on the spot market much more.

The truth is that German culture has just a long russophile tradition, substantial anti-american sentiments and good penetration by Russian state propaganda that gets consumed without much critique or reflection. All of this gets expressed in German politics and foreign policy.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Paladinus posted:

Good thing people haven't been paying attention to Zhirinovsky lately. He suggested Russia should start nuking America and Europe to reboot the failed Western civilisation.

hmm, that is one of his most appealing policies

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Grouchio posted:

He can say that easily if he has no responsibility on the matter. If he was ever in power he would think twice before committing to wiping out his own nation.
Even mentioning him here feels like clancychat.

Yes, that was my point.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




https://www.gov.uk/government/news/kremlin-plan-to-install-pro-russian-leadership-in-ukraine-exposed

quote:

We have information that indicates the Russian Government is looking to install a pro-Russian leader in Kyiv as it considers whether to invade and occupy Ukraine. The former Ukrainian MP Yevhen Murayev is being considered as a potential candidate.

We have information that the Russian intelligence services maintain links with numerous former Ukrainian politicians including:

Cugel the Clever
Apr 5, 2009
I LOVE AMERICA AND CAPITALISM DESPITE BEING POOR AS FUCK. I WILL NEVER RETIRE BUT HERE'S ANOTHER 200$ FOR UKRAINE, SLAVA

GABA ghoul posted:

Germany doesn't really have an unusual relation in regards to gas with Russia. That's mostly uninformed op-ed claptrap.
All I've got is second-hand knowledge from what seems like a consensus of foreign policy analysts to say otherwise, so I'm curious why Nord Stream 2 would be such a focal point for influence efforts from both sides if the whole thing is just a bunch of hot air.

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

Well that makes invading Kiev less likely if Russia's hoping a coup takes care of things whilst the Donbass is annexed.

Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!

Actually trying to take areas like Kiev, places that don't like Russia and aren't really Russophone at all, seems really dumb and what would get them a nightmare insurgency.

Brogeoisie
Jan 12, 2005

"Look, I'm a private citizen," he said. "One thing that I don't have to do is sit here and open my kimono as it relates to how much money I make or didn't."

Cugel the Clever posted:

All I've got is second-hand knowledge from what seems like a consensus of foreign policy analysts to say otherwise, so I'm curious why Nord Stream 2 would be such a focal point for influence efforts from both sides if the whole thing is just a bunch of hot air.

It's a tax thing. They want to toll the gas companies shipping through eastern Europe and Germany. If they bypass, they don't collect the tax. It's not a total supply issue. It is a dumb dispute and Russia has every right to be annoyed about US and other countries meddling to force them to have worse margins for no real reason. As part of the dispute, Russia has been moving in less volume on the existing pipe to basically squeeze the price higher (this affects total European price, not just Germany). Also there is theory their production declines were bigger than expected and therefore they just didn't have the molecules available. Basically, ns2 dispute is stupid and has always has been.

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy

Al-Saqr posted:

Also Putin isnt an athiest lol he's a reactionary Orthodox is that Navy Chief stupid?
I suspect Putin sees Orthodox Christianity as like a fallback "ideology" for people in the post-communist void in a very hardass, pragmatic sense and nothing more than that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt5OfyvPiSk&t=348s

Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!
Modern Russian nationalism freely mixes the Tsars, Soviets, and Orthodox themes all willy nilly.
Because all that matters is that they are Russian.

Jippa
Feb 13, 2009

GABA ghoul posted:

Germany doesn't really have an unusual relation in regards to gas with Russia. That's mostly uninformed op-ed claptrap. Many countries like Italy, the UK or the Netherlands have a higher per capita gas consumption than Germany and Russia's share of gas imports in Germany is pretty average for the EU. Germany also has a lot of price stable long term gas contracts, which allowed it to weather the energy crisis better than a lot of other European countries that rely on the spot market much more.

The truth is that German culture has just a long russophile tradition, substantial anti-american sentiments and good penetration by Russian state propaganda that gets consumed without much critique or reflection. All of this gets expressed in German politics and foreign policy.

The UK mainly gets it's gas from Norway (and then a load of other countries from round the world). Less than 5% from Russia according to the beeb.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58637094

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Cugel the Clever posted:

All I've got is second-hand knowledge from what seems like a consensus of foreign policy analysts to say otherwise, so I'm curious why Nord Stream 2 would be such a focal point for influence efforts from both sides if the whole thing is just a bunch of hot air.

Nord Stream 2 is a hot topic because it would take hostage several gas transit fees-reliant economies in Eastern Europe. The other major concern with it is that it could increase European reliance on Russian gas in general, simply by providing even more of it for maybe slightly less.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:

Jippa posted:

The UK mainly gets it's gas from Norway (and then a load of other countries from round the world). Less than 5% from Russia according to the beeb.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58637094
The point is right on the Netherlands though, which is both far more dependent on gas (due to having built its heating around the once abundant gas fields in the region) and gets basically all of it from Russia. I'd argue though that per capita gas consumption is less important than the distribution of gas demand. A country with a smaller share of less efficient housing might have a higher per capita demand, but a lack of supply will also hit fewer households. Not that that is gonna help the Netherlands in the rankings, given its deep dependence.

GABA ghoul posted:

Germany doesn't really have an unusual relation in regards to gas with Russia. That's mostly uninformed op-ed claptrap. Many countries like Italy, the UK or the Netherlands have a higher per capita gas consumption than Germany and Russia's share of gas imports in Germany is pretty average for the EU. Germany also has a lot of price stable long term gas contracts, which allowed it to weather the energy crisis better than a lot of other European countries that rely on the spot market much more.
I feel like many is a bit misleading. There are six countries more or equally dependent on gas in the EU, meaning Germany is in the top quartile for gas dependence for heating.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Nord Stream 2 is a hot topic because it would take hostage several gas transit fees-reliant economies in Eastern Europe. The other major concern with it is that it could increase European reliance on Russian gas in general, simply by providing even more of it for maybe slightly less.
Spending resources increasing European reliance on Russian gas while both strategic and environmental concerns would indicate that the money should be spent doing the exact opposite. I feel like Germany gets the most flack because they're by far the most influential country in the EU, but they completely fail to live up to the responsibility - their lack of strategic/pan-European thinking wreaking havoc in multiple political arenas. Sure, there are countries that have worse politics, but Germany has the power to make its politics felt across the EU, and so far it's mostly using that power for bad.

Terminally Bored
Oct 31, 2011

Twenty-five dollars and a six pack to my name

This is the most likely scenario. They'll just install another Yanukovych.

cr0y
Mar 24, 2005



How much firepower is a US carrier strike group.

Asking for a friend

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!

cr0y posted:

How much firepower is a US carrier strike group.

Asking for a friend

How, specifically, is this relevant to Eastern Europe?

Asking for a friend.

edit: thread regulars actually living in Eastern Europe have clearly expressed a distaste for Clancy chat. And maybe I should change the thread title to reflect that.

\/\/\/\/\/\/ knock this poo poo off unless it's quite funny (very subjective!) or directly relevant to the thread topic

Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 10:19 on Jan 23, 2022

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007
Probation
Can't post for 3 hours!

Fritz the Horse posted:

How, specifically, is this relevant to Eastern Europe?

Asking for a friend.

Is the friend Erdogan?

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

GABA ghoul posted:

The truth is that German culture has just a long russophile tradition, substantial anti-american sentiments and good penetration by Russian state propaganda that gets consumed without much critique or reflection. All of this gets expressed in German politics and foreign policy.

It's also culturally out of the question for Germany to defend itself or even meaningfully contribute to its own defense. Defending third countries like Ukraine is even less culturally palatable, particularly when they're in the rightful Russian "sphere of influence".

In addition to the marine guy, other politicians (Ex-chancellor Schröder, Sigmar Gabriel and Klaus von Dohnanyi are some that I know about) have also come out on the side of Russia after being in government. I think this runs deep.

Online newspaper reader comments about the articles covering that marine guy and his "As a Catholic, I think we should join with our brethren in Russia and fight China" rhetoric are about 70-80% in favor across the board from the Zeit (somewhat leftist paper) to the Welt (somewhat rightist paper). His opinion is seen as the pure wisdom of an elder statesman.

Nordstream 2 is similarly untouchable as a great national achievement of Germany, gently caress what other EU countries say.

Considering all that and judging it by its actions, I'm wondering what I would think of Germany as the US president or Ukraine. It's the kind of friend that keeps going on about how much it values your friendship, but whenever you need to call on it, it's unable to make time, doesn't help you and complains publicly about your nerve to ask.

cr0y
Mar 24, 2005



Fritz the Horse posted:

How, specifically, is this relevant to Eastern Europe?

Asking for a friend.

edit: thread regulars actually living in Eastern Europe have clearly expressed a distaste for Clancy chat. And maybe I should change the thread title to reflect that.

\/\/\/\/\/\/ knock this poo poo off unless it's quite funny (very subjective!) or directly relevant to the thread topic

You're right, I apologize.

Terminally Bored
Oct 31, 2011

Twenty-five dollars and a six pack to my name

Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:

It's also culturally out of the question for Germany to defend itself or even meaningfully contribute to its own defense. Defending third countries like Ukraine is even less culturally palatable, particularly when they're in the rightful Russian "sphere of influence".

In addition to the marine guy, other politicians (Ex-chancellor Schröder, Sigmar Gabriel and Klaus von Dohnanyi are some that I know about) have also come out on the side of Russia after being in government. I think this runs deep.

Online newspaper reader comments about the articles covering that marine guy and his "As a Catholic, I think we should join with our brethren in Russia and fight China" rhetoric are about 70-80% in favor across the board from the Zeit (somewhat leftist paper) to the Welt (somewhat rightist paper). His opinion is seen as the pure wisdom of an elder statesman.

Nordstream 2 is similarly untouchable as a great national achievement of Germany, gently caress what other EU countries say.

Considering all that and judging it by its actions, I'm wondering what I would think of Germany as the US president or Ukraine. It's the kind of friend that keeps going on about how much it values your friendship, but whenever you need to call on it, it's unable to make time, doesn't help you and complains publicly about your nerve to ask.

After finishing his term Schröder got hired by a Russian gas company iirc

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Terminally Bored posted:

After finishing his term Schröder got hired by a Russian gas company iirc

He’s chairman of the shareholders committee for Nordstream.

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!

cr0y posted:

You're right, I apologize.

No worries, I'm just sensitive to the feedback during the last day or so with several EE posters clearly communicating they shouldn't be talked about as pawns in some armchair Tom Clancy chat and expressing how tense the situation is. "There were a hundred posts overnight and I don't know if that means hot war with Russia and my friends and family might be in danger, or someone is being dumb in the thread."

Non-EE goons are of course welcome to post here, but please keep the last day or so of feedback posts in mind and recognize you're posting with folks who may be deeply, personally affected by the current situation.

Xarn
Jun 26, 2015
Probation
Can't post for 3 hours!

Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:


Online newspaper reader comments about the articles covering that marine guy and his "As a Catholic, I think we should join with our brethren in Russia and fight China" rhetoric are about 70-80% in favor across the board from the Zeit (somewhat leftist paper) to the Welt (somewhat rightist paper). His opinion is seen as the pure wisdom of an elder statesman.

Sorry, but wtf is wrong with Germans?

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Truga
May 4, 2014
Lipstick Apathy

Xarn posted:

Sorry, but wtf is wrong with Germans?

they're honest and pragmatic, why do you ask :v:

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