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Which horse film is your favorite?
This poll is closed.
Black Beauty 2 1.06%
A Talking Pony!?! 4 2.13%
Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor 117 62.23%
War Horse 11 5.85%
Mr. Hands 54 28.72%
Total: 188 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Willa Rogers posted:

Not according to the OWID Data Explorer, which is why I asked upthread if I was using it correctly.



That's per 100k.

eta: Wait, it's per 100, so I guess it includes multiple shots/person?

What vaccine is Japan using, and how many doses are called for?

japan only was giving boosters to hcws in december, though I believe they've branched out to seniors now, so it's basically 2/ person in japan for 2.x per person in the US

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Stickman
Feb 1, 2004

Fritz the Horse posted:

It seems reasonable to say that you'd get some worse outcomes in the US due to it not being a single-payer system. For example, people not getting preventative and routine health care that makes underlying risk factors for COVID worse. Poorly controlled diabetes, stuff like that.

I'm sure we'll have numbers for that sort of thing eventually.

Looking at outcomes of hospitalizations while controlling for risk factors & condition at admission could reasonably compare the quality of care within the hospital system. I suspect that there would also be differences in admissions and perhaps people who don't enter the system at all that would also need to be considered if we're trying to compare the healthcare system as a whole. Capacity and flexibility is another issue that would need specific assessment.

Waltzing Along
Jun 14, 2008

There's only one
Human race
Many faces
Everybody belongs here
Covid-19: Denmark doesn't just have LEGOs any more

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

Stickman posted:

Looking at outcomes of hospitalizations while controlling for risk factors & condition at admission could reasonably compare the quality of care within the hospital system. I suspect that there would also be differences in admissions and perhaps people who don't enter the system at all that would also need to be considered if we're trying to compare the healthcare system as a whole. Capacity and flexibility is another issue that would need specific assessment.

Yes! And this goes back to the point that hospital utilization in the U.S. is very much dependent on insurance carrier.

This is why I've asked a couple times whether hospitals that won't treat patients insured by Medicaid currently are as swamped as the ones that do treat patients on Medicaid--in other words, if there's a hospital census pattern by insurance that isn't being addressed.

This has been sticking in my craw since I saw a news story in late 2020 about L.A. hospitals like Cedars-Sinai & St. John/UCLA having plenty of beds going unused at a time in which hospitals treating Medicaid patients were in desperate straits.

And yet, aside from that one long-ago story, it's an issue that really hasn't been covered by news media.

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there
Denmark - 23 January 2022

All I can really say is that ICU and vent is staying low while cases go wild and hospitalization stays higher. The proportion of cases from 0-19s is plateaued but I haven't drilled into the sub-groups.



Daily "Last 7 days cases" split into three age brackets:
pre:
		22 Jan	21 Jan	20 Jan	19 Jan	18 Jan	17 Jan	15 Jan	14 Jan	13 Jan	12 Jan	11 Jan	10 Jan	07 Jan
0-19 years	43.1%	43.4%	43.6%	43.7%	43.3%	42.2%	40.9%	37.7%	36.5%	35.6%	34.2%	31.8%	30.1%	27%
20-39 years	27.8%	28.0%	28.3%	28.6%	29.2%	30.0%	31.0%	32.9%	33.8%	34.7%	36.1%	38.2%	39.1%	40%
40+ years	29.1%	28.6%	28.1%	27.6%	27.5%	27.8%	28.1%	29.4%	29.8%	29.7%	29.6%	30.0%	30.7%	33%
Table 1. Actual and Reported Denmark COVID Cases reported per day
pre:
	Actual	Reported	New	Total
Date	Cases	Cases	Reinf.	Hosp.	Hosp.	ICU		Vent		Dead
==============================================================================================
Jan 23	   ---	42,018	2,755	215	813	42 (-3)		27 (-1)		12
Jan 22	10,316	36,120	2,285	220	781	45 (+1)		28 (-1)		25
Jan 21	37,075	46,831	3,160	244	813	44 (-5)		29 (+1)		21
Jan 20	37,399	40,626	2,639	232	825	49 (-1)		28 (-2)		15
Jan 19	37,595	38,759	2,285	248	821	50 (+1)		30 (+1)		16
Jan 18	40,303	33,493	2,002	264	810	49 (-3)		29 (-8)		14
Jan 17	41,486	28,780	1,815	203	802	52 (-7)		37 (-4)		11
Jan 16	28,179	26,169	1,614	159	734	59 (+0)		41 (+1)		16 
Jan 15	25,188	25,034	1,644	202	711	59 (-1)		40 (+4)		16
Jan 14	25,883	23,614	1,519	215	757	60 (-4)		36 (-2)		15
Jan 13	23,776	25,751	1,822	194	755	64 (-9)		38 (-8)		20
Jan 12	22,575	24,343	1,614	215	751	73 (+0)		46 (+0)		25
Jan 11	22,656	22,936	1,459	181	754	73 (-1)		46 (-1)		14
Jan 10	23,244	14,414	  941	156	777	74 (-3)		47 (-3)		 9 
Jan 09	16,330	19,248	1,327	126	723	77 (-1) 	50 (-2) 	14 
Jan 08	13,573	12,588	  984	161	730	78 (+0) 	52 (-1) 	28 
Jan 07	14,434	18,261	1,482	186	755	78 (-4) 	53 (+4) 	10  
Jan 06	15,417	25,995	2,027	161	756	82 (+2) 	47 (-2) 	11  
Jan 05	17,577	28,283	2,083	204	784	80 (+3) 	49 (+2) 	15
Jan 04	23,698	23,372	1,701	229	792	77 (+4) 	47 (+1) 	15
Jan 03*	25,617	 8,801	  532	169	770	73 (-3) 	46 (-4) 	 5
Jan 02  19,906 	 7,550	  404	163	709	76 (+3) 	50 (+1) 	15
Jan 01   8,631	20,885	1,049	139	647	73 (+0) 	49 (+0) 	 5
Dec 31   9,728	17,605	1,090	177	641	73 (-2) 	49 (-1) 	11
Dec 30  19,927	21,403	1,123	178	665	75 (-2) 	50 (-2) 	 9
Dec 29  17,245	23,228	1,205	173	675	77 (+6) 	52 (+2) 	16
Dec 28  21,955	13,000	  670	177	666	71 (+1) 	50 (+4) 	14
Dec 27  22,616	16,164	  639	115	608	70 (-1) 	46 (-2) 	 7
Dec 26  10,965	14,844	  644	123	579	71 (-2) 	43 (+1) 	13
Dec 25   7,853	10,027	  463	 86	522	73 (-1) 	44 (+5) 	10
Dec 24   7,054	11,229	  527	134	509	74 (+2) 	39 (+1) 	14
Dec 23  12,605	12,487	  613	158	541	72 (+6) 	38 (+1)		15
Dec 22  11,591	13,386	  531	126	524	66 (-1) 	37 (+2)		14 
Dec 21  13,011	13,558	  501	121	526	67 (+1) 	35 (+2)		17
Dec 20  13,288	10,082	  ---	 85	581	66 (+3) 	33 (-2)		 8
Dec 19  10,231 	 8,212
Dec 18  10,049 	 8,594
Dec 17  10.614	11,194
Dec 16  10,171 	 9,999
Dec 15  10,775 	 8,773	  ---	 96	508	66 (+0)		43 (-3)		 9
Dec 13  10,294 	 7,799	  ---	 61	480	64 (-1)		42 (+0)		 9
Dec 12   6,986 	 5,989	  ---	 82	468	65 (+5)		42 (+6)	 	 9
Dec 08   6,560 	 6,629	  ---	 72	461	66 (-1)		38 (-1)		 7
Dec 01   4,464 	 5,120	  ---	 88	439	35 (+1)		35 (+1)		14
Table 2: ICU Bed Usage, Weekly (reported every 2 weeks)
pre:
Date      		Bed Availability
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
17 January  	328 ICU beds, 54 COVID, 66 available
10 January  	331 ICU beds, 72 COVID, 29 available
03 January  	331 ICU beds, 76 COVID, 32 available
27 December	316 ICU beds, 71 COVID, 62 available 
20 December 	317 ICU beds, 60 COVID, 59 available
13 December 	319 ICU beds, 64 COVID, 39 available
06 December 	310 ICU beds, 67 COVID, 10 available <-- squeaky bum time here
29 November	318 ICU beds, 61 COVID, 25 available
Sourcea:
https://www.rkkp.dk/kvalitetsdatabaser/databaser/dansk-intensiv-database/resultater/
https://covid19.ssi.dk/overvagningsdata/download-fil-med-overvaagningdata
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/242ec2acc014456295189631586f1d26
https://covid19.ssi.dk/virusvarianter/delta-pcr

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there

Inferior Third Season posted:

Can you please quit this poo poo? We get it: you're an American in Denmark.

No I'm not!

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

Stickman posted:

You can gently caress right off with the implication that is anti-vax to suggest that country-level [hospitalization] rates are not necessarily tied only to vaccination.

You forgot to delete the part of the quote saying exactly that.

James Garfield posted:

Japan currently has fewer hospitalizations than the US because the US has something like 20 times as many cases in the past 1-2 weeks

I mean

Stickman posted:

In general, vaccination rates don't directly translate into nice patterns in aggregate death rate at the national/population level because there are too many other factors affecting how many people are dying..

(the antivax part of the original post is them saying that masks are far more important than vaccines)

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

Discendo Vox posted:

There was a bunch of talking about policies of stigma and withholding care in the CE thread, but it more appropriately belongs here.

For the record, I brought up Yong's Atlantic piece in the CE thread because of Beetus's former declaration that

Professor Beetus posted:

I've really tried to mod without a heavy hand in here, but I think I'm going to politely ask that we table this particular topic for now. If you want to talk about imminent healthcare collapse or the toll the current Covid situation is taking on healthcare workers, fine by me. But let's not keep going around in circles about who specifically deserves to die because it's getting extremely ghoulish. Thank you.

If that rule for this thread has since changed, I think that should be stated by a bona-fide mod, the kind with a star the ones with their names at the top of this forum as being the official mods of this forum.

Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 23:06 on Jan 23, 2022

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Surely the fact that Japan had Delta under control with a couple hundred cases a day prior to the Omicron wave at New Year's, compared to the US recording 100,000+ cases of Delta a day through December, is relevant

CAT INTERCEPTOR
Nov 9, 2004

Basically a male Margaret Thatcher

Willa Rogers posted:

For the record, I brought up Yong's Atlantic piece in the CE thread because of Beetus's former declaration that

If that rule for this thread has since changed, I think that should be stated by a bona-fide mod, the kind with a star.

Did I just miss a joke here or something? Beetus is very much a full mod. Some mods choose to have a custom icon rather than the star like Literally a Bird did or half a dozen other current mods

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
we actually ran out of stars for beetus, turns out former mods aren't turning theirs back in when they step down or get permad

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!
imo the main problem with that Discendo Vox post is it's not long enough

That's Beetus' rule though, I'll leave to him to respond on that

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:

Did I just miss a joke here or something? Beetus is very much a full mod. Some mods choose to have a custom icon rather than the star like Literally a Bird did or half a dozen other current mods

I was addressing my mod remark to DV, not Beetus.

DV seemed to be upset that the topic was discussed in the CE thread instead of this one, going by his remarks in both threads.

I wanted to make it clear that I brought up the topic in the CE thread for a reason: that the mod of this thread asked for it to not be discussed anymore.

eta: oh el oh el, I just noticed Beetus doesn't have a star. Anyway, that's whose prior post laid down the rule, and who I know is a mod, starless or starful.

Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 23:04 on Jan 23, 2022

Charles 2 of Spain
Nov 7, 2017

Herstory Begins Now posted:

japan only was giving boosters to hcws in december, though I believe they've branched out to seniors now, so it's basically 2/ person in japan for 2.x per person in the US
This is correct, the percentage of unvaccinated in Japan is much lower than the US, and has been for a while now. This is more important than the raw number of vaccines since boosters aren't going to unvaccinated people by definition.

There could be other factors to explain lower death rates too - the general health level of the populace, a universal health care system, but also Japan is more geared toward providing healthcare to elderly people since a third of the population is over 65. I wrote another post before about the situation here pre-Omnicron, I don't think masking has that big of an effect.

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane
May I suggest that, in the future, the ethics of triage be discussed with reference to qualified experts and that sort of thing, rather than just a "well, I think X deserves to die more than Y!" sort of ad-hoc thing? I was guilty of the latter too, and I agree that overall it's not a helpful discussion to have, but I think there's room to discuss competing viewpoints from actual medical ethicists and such in the face of a changing situation.

Professor Beetus
Apr 12, 2007

They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus
Going to chime in and say that folks can try to approach the discussion in a respectful and measured fashion then go ahead and discuss the ethics of triage. I wanted to quash that discussion because it had started going in circles and people weren't really engaging with each other's posts anymore and there were a couple of gross posts. If you having something new or substantive or thoughtful to say on the subject, go ahead, and if it becomes a problem again I'll deal with it accordingly.

Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2019

Willa Rogers posted:

eta: oh el oh el, I just noticed Beetus doesn't have a star. Anyway, that's whose prior post laid down the rule, and who I know is a mod, starless or starful.

I believe basically all mods have light blue favicons, whether stars or not (and you can mouseover them to make sure). Admins' are red, and IKs' are generally gray.

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

Professor Beetus posted:

Going to chime in and say that folks can try to approach the discussion in a respectful and measured fashion then go ahead and discuss the ethics of triage. I wanted to quash that discussion because it had started going in circles and people weren't really engaging with each other's posts anymore and there were a couple of gross posts. If you having something new or substantive or thoughtful to say on the subject, go ahead, and if it becomes a problem again I'll deal with it accordingly.

Thanks for the clarification!

I'm pretty sure that everything was said that was wanted or needed to be said in the CE thread the other day, but for those posters who don't follow CE, or who have something new to add, this was the piece that we discussed.

cant cook creole bream
Aug 15, 2011
I think Fahrenheit is better for weather
Triage is good, because it saves lives. Letting it come so far that triage is the only option is bad, because it squanders lives and the decisions often come to late, saving neither.
Looking at those two statements in a vacuum, the logical implication is that we should do triage more proactively, while we can actively chose to do it willingly, before we are ever forced to.
It's honestly a bit of a weird topic, with strange implications if you look at it in an abstract form.
Either way, I am certain that it's best to discuss the topic in an abstract way without invoking prosaic examples of perceived injustices against people who could have lived, if the system didn't willingly let them die. Nobody wants to live in a society where triage exists. But using that tool is better than shelving it due to moralistic concerns. Would you rather have a passionate, emotional physician, or one who is calculated and logical?

cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 00:07 on Jan 24, 2022

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Lets also not forget the emotional toll triaging takes on the medical professionals. Another reason you should want to avoid the situation entirely and one that is not often talked about.

Rochallor
Apr 23, 2010

ふっっっっっっっっっっっっck

Charles 2 of Spain posted:

This is correct, the percentage of unvaccinated in Japan is much lower than the US, and has been for a while now. This is more important than the raw number of vaccines since boosters aren't going to unvaccinated people by definition.

There could be other factors to explain lower death rates too - the general health level of the populace, a universal health care system, but also Japan is more geared toward providing healthcare to elderly people since a third of the population is over 65. I wrote another post before about the situation here pre-Omnicron, I don't think masking has that big of an effect.

I'm not sure how the US numbers are calculated, but Japan is still in the process of approving vaxxes for 5-12 year olds so those kids are contributing to the number of unvaccinated.

Suzera
Oct 6, 2021

This spell rocks. It'll pop you right out of that funk.

James Garfield posted:

(the antivax part of the original post is them saying that masks are far more important than vaccines)
Generically and unrelated to just Japan, it seems likely masks would be if everyone wore respirators (ffr or otherwise) correctly and anywhere they went that another person was in the last 15 minutes, including inside their house. Which is several big ifs, but the virus can't teleport straight into your lungs.

Although I would not expect even such masking with universal compliance to shift the CFR as suggested. Masks prevent cases not just deaths like vaccines do.

As for France vs US CFR per capita, the United states came into omicron off a delta wave, which aside from the most recent week at most, is the cause of most of the deaths. If France doesn't get something like

(US unvaxed % + .1 * US vaxed %) * US Case peak / pop
divided by
(France unvaxed % + .1 France vaxed %) * France Case peak / pop

for a ratio in deaths per capita at the peak I'd be surprised by a non-vaccine factor in cfr, assuming about a 10x reduction in deaths still holds. But we have some weeks to go before we see whether or not on that for sure.

Right now taking the case 7 day from 3 weeks ago compared to deaths today:
(37 + .1 * 63) * 484k
/
(25 + .1 * 75) * 169k


20957 / 5492 = ~3.81x as many absolute deaths in the US

3.81 * 67m / 330m = ~.77x as many per capita deaths in the US

Which means France should have more deaths per capita right now using cfr as our measure for predicted deaths, under the assumption that vaccinations grant a 10x reduced risk of death (which may not hold well for omicron), and not considering other factors.

I don't know offhand what extra factor might be having a huge impact aside from there still being a long tail of deaths from prior delta pre-Christmas in the United States, and maybe more obesity. Deaths are usually more drawn out than cases and don't have as sharp a peak and we're still leading up to all the Omicron deaths. I don't think the United States vs France makes for a good comparison from the gross data at this moment if you're looking for non-vaccine, non-variant related comparison unless you can find another country with a similar leading delta wave.

E: In case anyone is trying to figure out the implication, by this method, a weaker vaccine effect would widen the gap here between expectation and reality since France has more full vaccinated.

E2: France also has somewhere around a 20% positivity rate at the moment, so their testing system is probably strained somewhat as well, even if it's not as bad as the US has been the last few weeks.

Suzera fucked around with this message at 02:46 on Jan 24, 2022

Alctel
Jan 16, 2004

I love snails


Willa Rogers posted:

I don't understand; what "things" are you specifically questioning?

To clarify: Leon said that vax rates will mirror deaths & hospitalizations in other countries, even countries with single-payer.

But going by Japan/U.S., it looks like other factors such as co-morbidities and masking likely play a far larger role than vaccination rates.

At least in Canada, the higher the provincial vaccination rate, the lower the death/hospitalisation rate.

This actually happens inter-province as well, in BC the rural, unvaccinated area hospitals got totally hosed and had to start airlifting people to the more vaccinated urban areas.

Charles 2 of Spain
Nov 7, 2017

Rochallor posted:

I'm not sure how the US numbers are calculated, but Japan is still in the process of approving vaxxes for 5-12 year olds so those kids are contributing to the number of unvaccinated.
Kids Pfizer was approved a couple of days ago, but yeah it's probably fairer to compare the fully vaccinated percentage of the 12+ population which is about 85% for Japan. I don't know the US numbers.

Another difference I've read about is that the distribution of take-up is more even across the whole country (bar Okinawa) than in the US where you have clusters of high and low vaccinated populations. It might explain case numbers collapsing after the Delta wave vs. plateauing at a higher baseline.

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

Willa Rogers posted:

The death rate for Japan is also amazingly low compared to the U.S.

It must be comorbidities, especially obesity, but I'd reckon the U.S. healthcare system also disincentivizes allover health, which makes people hesitant of both seeking early care plus skepticism that vaccines are free or the need to not take unpaid time off.

I bet the comorbidities are big factors — especially obesity, given the fact that COV2 seems to be able to infect adipose tissue directly — and there's an outside shot there's a genetic component, possibly generated by a coronavirus pandemic 20,000 years ago.

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010
Are people using "triage" to mean crisis triage itt? Because triage is just how a hospital distributes resources even in good times

UCS Hellmaker
Mar 29, 2008
Toilet Rascal

A big flaming stink posted:

Are people using "triage" to mean crisis triage itt? Because triage is just how a hospital distributes resources even in good times

In good times triage is only in place to determine priority of care in an emergency room. So who gets seen first the guy that decided to have a heart attack or the person here because they went an std check as an example.

Triage really is only an Ed thing normally, because the resources in other areas are high enough that you don't need to prioritize focus. The actual start triage protocols are used in mass casualty events and that's a standard that focuses on treating the people that are viable with the resources you have. And takes training to be able to perform.

Crisis triage like the actual hypothetical scenario or what happened in NYC are another level like start and not something that can be easily decided on, because the public perception would be screaming death panels (and honestly was but in a more limited volume and words)

Kalit
Nov 6, 2006

The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

Charles 2 of Spain posted:

This is correct, the percentage of unvaccinated in Japan is much lower than the US, and has been for a while now. This is more important than the raw number of vaccines since boosters aren't going to unvaccinated people by definition.

There could be other factors to explain lower death rates too - the general health level of the populace, a universal health care system, but also Japan is more geared toward providing healthcare to elderly people since a third of the population is over 65. I wrote another post before about the situation here pre-Omnicron, I don't think masking has that big of an effect.

So, I'm a little confused about this. To me, it sounds like the factors you're listing have to do with post-COVID treatment if you're trying to compare COVID deaths, i.e. Japan vs US. However, Japan had a much lower COVID case rate as well when compared to US. For my comparison, I looked at the peaks for the US and Japan and normalized for population (US having shy of 3x the population of Japan).

So how do you account for the huge difference of overall COVID cases there if you don't think masking had much of an effect? Assuming I'm correct in that those other factors you listed wouldn't make an impact on COVID cases, which please correct me if I'm wrong about that. I'm honestly confused and don't know much beyond a few random articles I've read.

Kalit fucked around with this message at 05:02 on Jan 24, 2022

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

Petey posted:

I bet the comorbidities are big factors — especially obesity, given the fact that COV2 seems to be able to infect adipose tissue directly — and there's an outside shot there's a genetic component, possibly generated by a coronavirus pandemic 20,000 years ago.

Yeah; the reason I brought it up, both in the other thread & this one, is because U.S. public-health policy seems to solely emphasize vaccination, and de-emphasize things that also should be approached as mitigation combined with vaccination.

Not only the early mixed messaging about masking, but also broader public-health issues like obesity. The last year would've been a great time to begin a national fitness campaign like we olds had back in the day when JFK was president. "We've sat on our butts for the last year; now let's all get healthier and make covid less lethal."

Hell, start one now, and appoint Michelle Obama as Fitness Czar or something. The celeb ads & social-media posts write themselves.

Charles 2 of Spain
Nov 7, 2017

Kalit posted:

So, I'm a little confused about this. To me, it sounds like the factors you're listing have to do with post-COVID treatment if you're trying to compare COVID deaths, i.e. Japan vs US. However, Japan had a much lower COVID case rate as well when compared to US. For my comparison, I looked at the peaks for the US and Japan and normalized for population (US having shy of 3x the population of Japan).

So how do you account for the huge difference of overall COVID cases there if you don't think masking had much of an effect? Assuming I'm correct in that those other factors you listed wouldn't make an impact on COVID cases, which please correct me if I'm wrong about that. I'm honestly confused and don't know much beyond a few random articles I've read.
You're right, my post was mainly to do with post-COVID outcomes in terms of death rates. In terms of case numbers, I wrote a bit of an effortpost about a couple of months ago, but my view is that it's more to do than just universal masking. Although it is correct that basically everyone here wears a mask indoors and this will make a difference, I don't think you can explain the disparity between Japan and the US on this factor alone. People here still take them off to go out and eat or at their friend's apartments which is where a lot of transmission will occur. Also most people are wearing "normal" cotton or surgical masks, I haven't seen many N95s or respirators around. My kids have been at daycare for nearly the whole time without enforced masking (my oldest will wear one if we tell him to). So I don't think it's a panacea.

My view is that the scientific communication and policies surrounding the prevention of transmission has been better than the US and Europe, where it seems there's a byzantine set of rules and regulations which don't actually work well in practice. The mindset of many people seems to be waiting to completely go back to normal rather than accepting that you're going to have to live with some "annoyances" for a few years. It took the CDC months to acknowledge that COVID is airborne, but this has been known here since the beginning, so it was necessary to reconfigure our behaviours and society around that fact. I think the public has largely adhered to this messaging, although others will argue it's a cultural thing.

We'll see how it goes with Omicron though, relatively less prior immunity than other places, mostly double-vaxxed but hardly anyone is boostered with an elderly population and not many restrictions. It has the potential to do a lot of damage still.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Professor Beetus posted:

Going to chime in and say that folks can try to approach the discussion in a respectful and measured fashion then go ahead and discuss the ethics of triage. I wanted to quash that discussion because it had started going in circles and people weren't really engaging with each other's posts anymore and there were a couple of gross posts. If you having something new or substantive or thoughtful to say on the subject, go ahead, and if it becomes a problem again I'll deal with it accordingly.

I was the one who originally brought it up and FWIW I'm not really sure what my opinion on it is, all I said was that maybe it was time for societies to start having the discussion about it, instead of the discussion being verboten (not by you, or ITT, just in general in society.) The situation at the moment, at least during bad waves, is that cancer patients etc are having their surgery and treatments delayed because of hospital overcrowding, caused disproportionately by unvaccinated people. So we actually already have some level of triage - or denial of care, to put it another way - occurring by default.

Kavros
May 18, 2011

sleep sleep sleep
fly fly post post
sleep sleep sleep

Professor Beetus posted:

Going to chime in and say that folks can try to approach the discussion in a respectful and measured fashion then go ahead and discuss the ethics of triage.


Now that the vaccine is readily available and has been for a long time prior to the omicron wave, if a hospital officially enters a confirmed status of Crisis Standards Of Care, I do not want anyone experiencing a covid-unrelated medical emergency to die from lack of medical supplies/attention because willfully unvaccinated covid patients are clogging the system. Most patients at the hospital who are not there for covid-related health decline should receive ICU beds or respirators in any circumstance where there are not enough to provide lifesaving care to all patients.

I fully think that this should be an official and pre-emptively announced policy, as well. The antivaxxers love to insist that they're willing to 'take their chances' and insist they are not concerned about the disease. The government should absolutely warn people that if they elect not to get vaccinated they are accepting that they will receive no priority whatsoever in crisis triage.

Given the current situation of hospitals experiencing mass resignations from unresolvable HCW burnout and departments abandoning their posts en masse when their requests for more resources or salary are summarily dismissed by private facility management (and those private facility management then retaliate by having judges legally bar the healthcare workers from leaving to other employers) a substantial amount of care rationing will be related to staff limitations rather than physical supply of machines and medical supplies.

UCS Hellmaker
Mar 29, 2008
Toilet Rascal

freebooter posted:

I was the one who originally brought it up and FWIW I'm not really sure what my opinion on it is, all I said was that maybe it was time for societies to start having the discussion about it, instead of the discussion being verboten (not by you, or ITT, just in general in society.) The situation at the moment, at least during bad waves, is that cancer patients etc are having their surgery and treatments delayed because of hospital overcrowding, caused disproportionately by unvaccinated people. So we actually already have some level of triage - or denial of care, to put it another way - occurring by default.

This is also because non essential surgeries should be postponed, and a huge issue is hospitals were trying to still keep doing them even when the situation wasn't safe. The last hospital I was at literally prioritized doing heart surgeries on patients that were ambulatory and lived at home with minimal issues (or loving patients that were noncompliant with everything and then noncompliant in the hospital and wondered why they weren't doing well) that ended up taking beds in the ICU from medical patients for 4-5 days or loving longer because they made the hospital money. These were not essential surgeries, and many times were pushed through because it was a moneymaker and boosted numbers up, at the detriment of everyone on the floor and other critical patients. Part of the issue to is that some doctors will always admit patients after surgery, even when common practice is that unless there are complications, many can be same day surgeries with the patient going home after surgery with no issues and follow up in a week, causing a reduction in beds and waste of resources. Sidenote tangent, some doctors do this and admit every patient to a stepdown or other similar level of care, because they feel a med tele floor won't provide the care they want, causing further issues with resource allocation.

Hospitals that have separate oncology floors did try and still perform and do operations, it was hospitals that could not fully protect those patients or had to take over those floors due to patient loads that did stop surgeries in cancer patients, because covid exposure honestly would kill them due to chemo.

While not exactly triage in the definition I have (this is my opinion and from my training which is more ems and mce focused) you are correct that it is a way to describe how certain things were pushed off and delayed on patients that did have a detrimental affect on. Short on actively making a hospital that was a pure cancer focused or immunocompromised I don't know of a way to prevent that, and honestly it wouldn't be viable I believe in many countries just because of staffing and resources. The only areas I know that things still functioned and performed well were the transplant areas, but that was due to those areas already being basically locked wards and having the best infectious control. And since they are considered important timed surgeries due to the short time available to harvest and transplant.

I'm probably rambling here so excuse the bouncing of ideas.

UCS Hellmaker
Mar 29, 2008
Toilet Rascal

Kavros posted:


Given the current situation of hospitals experiencing mass resignations from unresolvable HCW burnout and departments abandoning their posts en masse when their requests for more resources or salary are summarily dismissed by private facility management (and those private facility management then retaliate by having judges legally bar the healthcare workers from leaving to other employers) a substantial amount of care rationing will be related to staff limitations rather than physical supply of machines and medical supplies.

Touching on this mainly, because the other stuff is honestly a quagmire that deserves its own thread imo because it can and will lead to a fairly rough derail and involves alot of policies.

I feel that currently the judge wants a full hearing, and a temp injuction is just a small thing while he looks at relevant facts. However Wisconsin is at will, and there is literally no precedent or authority that states you can force someone to stay at there position even in medical. Especially for people that are not direct patient care. In situations like this it would mean that the facility would have to ensure proper care and may not be able to perform it's duties as a T2 or stroke center which happens all the time due to machine issues, capacity or other problems. I've been on posting duties before because a CT scanner was down and we needed to be ready to transport possible strokes.

The judge is an idiot, and in all honesty this will not go in the hospitals favor especially if it was literally just applying to open positions. There is literally no legal reasoning or law that exists that can force this, and the hospitals legal reasoning is basically we hosed up so badly that we just realized it and are panicking and will absolutely retaliate against them if you give us what we want.

Literally the defendants can easily argue that forcing them to work there opens them up to massive harm potential from a now angry employer that will result in physical distress and mental harm.

Mind you a nurse or doctor can be charged with abondoment of their patients if they leave before they have their relief show up, but that is due to laws stating as such, and is not something that is really applicable to this where it's people putting in their notices and the hospital saying no. You can't really lose your license if you just don't show up for a shift you didn't agree to, and only can be disciplined once you officially take over those patients under your care.

UCS Hellmaker fucked around with this message at 07:36 on Jan 24, 2022

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

Willa Rogers posted:

Not only the early mixed messaging about masking, but also broader public-health issues like obesity. The last year would've been a great time to begin a national fitness campaign like we olds had back in the day when JFK was president. "We've sat on our butts for the last year; now let's all get healthier and make covid less lethal."

Hell, start one now, and appoint Michelle Obama as Fitness Czar or something. The celeb ads & social-media posts write themselves.

This is stupid as loving hell because if "yell at fatties to stop being fat" had any effect on obesity, we wouldn't have obese people.

There was a national fitness campaign when I was a kid, too, you know. President Bush even roped in the biggest star in the world, Arnold Schwarzenegger to promote it! We took a whole day of school for evaluating our fitness! Obesity rates skyrocketed.

You can’t solve societal issues with individual directives. It’s the same for obesity as it as for poverty.

Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 16:25 on Jan 24, 2022

Riptor
Apr 13, 2003

here's to feelin' good all the time

Willa Rogers posted:

"We've sat on our butts for the last year"

please try telling this to parents and let me know the reaction you get

Zodium
Jun 19, 2004



pediatric hospitalizations looking good in denmark this week.

probably comorbidities.

virtualboyCOLOR
Dec 22, 2004

Zodium posted:



pediatric hospitalizations looking good in denmark this week.

probably comorbidities.

This is with BA.2 right?

There are also reports that BA.2 is harder to test for: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/07/scientists-find-stealth-version-of-omicron-not-identifiable-with-pcr-test-covid-variant

quote:

The variant is still detected as coronavirus by all the usual tests, and can be identified as the Omicron variant through genomic testing, but probable cases are not flagged up by routine PCR tests that give quicker results.

BA.2 is ripping through Denmark and seems to be gaining a foothold in the other areas of Europe: https://www.forbes.com/sites/robert...sh=2f477ce47725

quote:


While three sub-lineages of omicron have been described around the world—BA.1, BA.2 and BA.3—BA.1 accounts for almost all omicron cases. “However, in Denmark BA.2 is gaining ground,” the SSI warned, noting smaller increases in Britain, Norway and Sweden.


vvvvv that is what I meant which is my I placed the related text in the quote. Sometimes I swear posters in this thread are purposely obtuse. The whole comment I made earlier about how BA.2 could reinfect folks with BA.1 literally said I can’t be sure without a proper translation and folks jumped on it like I was spreading fake news. This thread is combative as hell lately and it sucks.

virtualboyCOLOR fucked around with this message at 17:00 on Jan 24, 2022

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there

Uh, no it doesn't? It says it shows up on all the usual tests.

quote:

The variant is still detected as coronavirus by all the usual tests, and can be identified as the Omicron variant through genomic testing, but probable cases are not flagged up by routine PCR tests that give quicker results.

The issue is determining which *variant* it is. Your linked article is quite clear on it?

quote:

Scientists use whole genome analysis to confirm which variant has caused a Covid infection, but PCR tests can sometimes give an indication. About half of the PCR machines in the UK look for three genes in the virus, but Omicron (and the Alpha variant before it) test positive on only two of them. This is because Omicron, like Alpha, has a genetic change called a deletion in the “S” or spike gene. The glitch means that PCR tests that display so-called “S gene target failure” are highly suggestive of Omicron infections.

So it's easy to test for but hard to identify as BA.2 by a simple PCR test. Not a big deal, really.

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Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

Mellow Seas posted:

You can’t solve societal issues with individual directives. It’s the same for obesity as it as for poverty.

Nah, I wasn't talking about yelling at people or fat-shaming, just a coordinated national effort & PR campaign to address it as the greatest co-morbidity for covid lethality. Make it a stroll to the corner instead of a race to the top.

But that would take some sort of message that superseded partisan divides, and we can't have that now, can we? Those are reserved for starting stupid wars & complaining about the deficit, not addressing a public-health problem that's killing Americans with covid.

(Your reaction alone shows me why it'd never work and why it was dumb for me to suggest it, heh.)

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