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Alchenar posted:If this is all a bluff, what's the realistic endgame that Putin is actually looking for? While I’m not going to call entirely bluff on the invasion threat, the goal would be regime change in that scenario.
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Jan 24, 2022 10:56
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I'll toxx that Russia will invade if one of the posters adamantly claiming there will be no invasion counter-toxxes.
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Jan 24, 2022 11:03
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HonorableTB posted:I'll toxx that Russia will invade if one of the posters adamantly claiming there will be no invasion counter-toxxes. gently caress it, you got it 
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Jan 24, 2022 11:11
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https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1485550799849758726
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Jan 24, 2022 11:12
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What's the deadline on that Toxx? 3 months?
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Jan 24, 2022 11:13
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Alchenar posted:I think the problem with the 'it's a bluff' position is that Putin's demands have been so maximalist that nothing he can possibly be offered will make this brinksmanship look like a win for him. Compare and contrast with the Cuban Missile Crisis where the US's starting demands were exactly what they wanted 'remove the nukes from Cuba', and the concession that was made in the end was a reasonable one of reciprocal withdrawal that made everyone feel like a winner (well, aside from the 'we almost nuked each other, that was bad' feeling and the fact that Khrushchev wasn't able to get credit from the widthdrawal of missiles from Turkey so it looked like he'd lost). Yeah, I can't see compelling evidence that this is just a bluff to force NATO to the negotiating table. They would probably, in that case, actually phrase their messaging like some kind of deal can be made instead of making an ultimatum. Of course, Sinteres believes there is some secret message in the ultimatum that it is not an ultimatum, but I think that is living in some alternate reality. Putin might pull back from this, but I think it'll be because he changed his mind based on the consequences rather than because this was a calculated bluff, though he might claim the latter in public messaging.
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Jan 24, 2022 11:24
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NATO member or not, Russia has given the west an excuse to arm Ukraine to the teeth. If Putin retreats now and does nothing, it will look really weak.
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Jan 24, 2022 11:45
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BoldFace posted:NATO member or not, Russia has given the west an excuse to arm Ukraine to the teeth. If Putin retreats now and does nothing, it will look really weak. They can just say they were just exercises. This has nothing to do with Ukraine. It's exercises. Moving troops around their own territory. No one in Kyiv or Moscow really cares. I don't think he'd look weak. He got his security summits after all.
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Jan 24, 2022 11:50
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Xarn posted:What's the deadline on that Toxx? 3 months? i propose the following conditions for my counter- to HonorableTB:
nurmie fucked around with this message at 14:23 on Jan 24, 2022 |
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Jan 24, 2022 11:51
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Panzeh posted:Yeah, I can't see compelling evidence that this is just a bluff to force NATO to the negotiating table. They would probably, in that case, actually phrase their messaging like some kind of deal can be made instead of making an ultimatum. You're allowed to just post without being weird about me, but just to quickly respond, I don't think there's a secret message, I just think final offers often aren't, and that maximalist demands can sometimes be walked back if a compromise position is on the table.
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Jan 24, 2022 12:19
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Sinteres posted:You're allowed to just post without being weird about me, but just to quickly respond, I don't think there's a secret message, I just think final offers often aren't, and that maximalist demands can sometimes be walked back if a compromise position is on the table. Okay then, make your pitch for what you think NATO could plausibly offer that Putin would consider a win.
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Jan 24, 2022 12:34
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Alchenar posted:Okay then, make your pitch for what you think NATO could plausibly offer that Putin would consider a win. No more military aid or closer NATO/EU co-operation with Ukraine? Russian state media has been hard at work building the narrative that the west is arming Ukrainian Nazis to the teeth and eggs them on to attack the noble people's republics of Donbas. He might be able to sell that as a win. Donbas finally safe from the west!
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Jan 24, 2022 12:43
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Alchenar posted:Okay then, make your pitch for what you think NATO could plausibly offer that Putin would consider a win. I think saying NATO membership for Ukraine is off the table/limiting weapons transfers/military assistance and opening some sort of negotiation process leading to de facto recognition of Crimea (with some resulting sanctions climb downs) would get a lot of the way there. Personally, I'd like to see Russia similarly agree to a negotiation process that leads to them withdrawing from the Donbas too, maybe as part of a linked process with the Crimea final status talks, but I don't know if that's something Russia's willing to budge on or not. Obviously withdrawing all military forces from the eastern NATO states is a non starter, but Biden's indicated that he's open to having a discussion on what times of weapons are stationed where, so maybe there's even some wiggle room there, though I wouldn't expect to see a lot in the way of immediate guarantees during crisis negotiations since that would justifiably make those eastern NATO states feel like they were being sold out under pressure. I think some kind of limitations on weapons stationed in Kaliningrad would make sense in return if there was movement there though.
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Jan 24, 2022 12:48
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If this ends up being a feint, it has to be a riotously expensive one, right?
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Jan 24, 2022 12:57
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j3rkstore posted:If this ends up being a feint, it has to be a riotously expensive one, right? Yeah, it'll be a huge blunder if they're bluffing (not saying they should invade, just that stacking forces if you aren't going to and can't get anything out of the bluff is a disaster). German waffling notwithstanding, it seems to have brought NATO together, and has obviously led to increased military assistance to Ukraine. If Russia flinches without getting anything in return, it invites the problems Russia was afraid of in the first place.
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Jan 24, 2022 12:59
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It is no doubt extravagantly expensive but it does serve as a useful exercise for the military. The military has to actually put into process all the logistical plans it has in place and see how effective they are in action and experience garnered from the operation is useful for the future. Why you might want a military that is effective at preparing for an invasion is another matter.
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Jan 24, 2022 13:05
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j3rkstore posted:If this ends up being a feint, it has to be a riotously expensive one, right? Oh yeah, there's the immediate cost of this massive mobilisation, there's the damage done to Russia's economy from tanking the Rouble, then there's the foreign relations costs of having given the anti-Russia faction in NATO a massive shot in the arm and kicking Finland and Sweden into a conversation about joining. All that just to get an agreement that kinda-but-not-really legally formalises the status quo is not great.
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Jan 24, 2022 13:08
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Conspiratiorist posted:"Putin is a coward, actually" is a rather weak argument in the face of what Russian foreign policy tragically looks like in the real world. Really? How do you explain this then? https://theins.ru/news/248081 quote:Заявления главы Чеченской республики Рамзана Кадырова, которые касаются пособничества терроризму журналистов и членов СПЧ, это его личное мнение, считает пресс-секретарь президента Дмитрий Песков. Fucker is a coward that is scared of violence and force, which is why he treats Kadyrov like this but lets his gopnik nature loose on the weak (this includes Germany Ukraine and others who aren't fighting back) This is pushing me into the "not going to invade" camp, if he's so afraid of conflict with Kadyrov, attacking Ukraine should have similar risks and costs Somaen fucked around with this message at 14:17 on Jan 24, 2022 |
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Jan 24, 2022 13:52
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2023: Undone by the strategic failure that was the costly military feint on the Western border, Vladimir Putin is humiliated and beleaguered. With Putin's political capital depleted and power constrained, but no strong leaders rising to the occasion to replace him from within Russia, Batka takes over the reins of the Eurasian Union.
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Jan 24, 2022 13:54
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nurmie posted:[*] six months time span - so, no invasion before the 24th of June, 2022 That's five months.
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Jan 24, 2022 14:15
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Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:That's five months. oh no, this is embarrassing  fixed
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Jan 24, 2022 14:23
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Somaen posted:Really? How do you explain this then? Kadyrov's too useful a dog to put down, even if he's rabid. I don't think it's correct to say that Putin's afraid of him, just that it's not worth blowing up Chechnya again trying to replace him. It's obviously not exactly the same since Chechnya is more important to Russia than Afghanistan was to the US, but look at how much poo poo the US overlooked by various warlords in Afghanistan to not even succeed at keeping it together. I guess it cuts both ways a little bit since Putin has less plausible distance from Kadyrov than the US did from a lot of those warlords, and Kadyrov is more public with his misdeeds, but I think it's a similar principle anyway. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 14:36 on Jan 24, 2022 |
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Jan 24, 2022 14:32
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I don't know if he feels the specific emotion of fear in his brain, but politically it is weak and cowardly. The guy is kidnapping people from other regions now and the police and special services do nothing to stop it, and the Kremlin can't even admonish him verbally because they're scared of war with terror attacks and casualties. This is exasperated by the Kremlin's gung ho attitude about persecuting and repressing dorky liberals. The cowardice is palpable Edit: how about you go talk about the US in Afghanistan somewhere else? If the only thing you can contribute is relating topics to the US, it's fine not to post Somaen fucked around with this message at 14:53 on Jan 24, 2022 |
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Jan 24, 2022 14:39
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It's just an analogy. Given the propensity to bring up Munich itt, I don't see the problem. I'm not planning to do a deep dive or anything, if that helps. Anyway I certainly don't think keeping Kadyrov around is admirable, but if it keeps thousands of (mostly Chechen) people from dying in another war, I think describing it as cowardice is pretty weird.
Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 14:54 on Jan 24, 2022 |
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Jan 24, 2022 14:41
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Germany now offering voluntary evacuation to all non-essential embassy workers and their families in Ukraine. Embassy is gonna keep working for now though. Also, Spiegel reporting that new EU sanctions over the Crimea annexation are very likely coming. Germany, Finland and Italy were the last holdouts and Germany has now agreed to them.
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Jan 24, 2022 14:59
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GABA ghoul posted:Germany now offering voluntary evacuation to all non-essential embassy workers and their families in Ukraine. Embassy is gonna keep working for now though. UK FCDO and US state department also now doing social media saying IF YOU ARE A NATIONAL GFTO NOW or register with the Embassy so we know that you've diseappeared in a warzone.
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Jan 24, 2022 15:02
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https://twitter.com/MatasMaldeikis/status/1485569942023983109?s=20
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Jan 24, 2022 15:03
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That's, uh, not helping with the Eastern Ukraine situation
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Jan 24, 2022 15:05
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I feel bad for the poster who got probed for EU4 chat now that a shitposting Lithuanian MP may as well be referencing it.
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Jan 24, 2022 15:11
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mobby_6kl posted:That's, uh, not helping with the Eastern Ukraine situation it looks like a minor lithuanian MP just shitposting
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Jan 24, 2022 15:14
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QuoProQuid posted:it looks like a minor lithuanian MP just shitposting watch russian media running with this presenting it as entirely serious sentiment lol
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Jan 24, 2022 15:18
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https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1485594749805412357
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Jan 24, 2022 15:32
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This doesn't seem to be a claim Russia is making tho, as much as vague European Nazis would like, his argument this time around is purely security centric, nothing about bloodland.
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Jan 24, 2022 15:35
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Sinteres posted:I feel bad for the poster who got probed for EU4 chat now that a shitposting Lithuanian MP may as well be referencing it. What a bizarre take - just because someone is posting a historical map, doesn't mean that he's referencing a Paradox game.
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Jan 24, 2022 15:46
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mmkay posted:What a bizarre take - just because someone is posting a historical map, doesn't mean that he's referencing a Paradox game. Come on man, I can't even make a little joke about a parliamentarian shitposting about 15th Century political geography without getting fact checked? Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 15:58 on Jan 24, 2022 |
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Jan 24, 2022 15:55
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QuoProQuid posted:it looks like a minor lithuanian MP just shitposting I think the joke is that the map doesn't include Donbas or Crimea in the No Russians zone.
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Jan 24, 2022 16:01
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:I think the joke is that the map doesn't include Donbas or Crimea in the No Russians zone. Would need Turkish MPs for that, but that gets even more awkward when it comes to Ottoman relations with Ukrainians at the time even when compared to the Commonwealth.
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Jan 24, 2022 16:06
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https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1485633186256273409
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Jan 24, 2022 16:30
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lol, it's just posturing. Russia has little to no capacity in the 21st century to bribe Cuba sufficiently to garner more than tepid rhetorical support in public. Everyone but the most rabid members of the Cuban expat community would be able to see it for what it is. Would be interesting, though, as pissing off the Cuban expats might result in GOP infighting over whether to continue its pro-Russia trend.
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Jan 24, 2022 16:48
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Hey, maybe Smokey the Carrier will visit Cuba. So excited.
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