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Putin's a short-term opportunist. Russian foreign policy under him has been focused on defining Russia as a modern great power, and great powers win big wars and beat back NATO's encroachment. If Russia can win this war rapidly and decisively it forces a new era of security calculus back in Europe, particularly if NATO shows themselves completely impotent as they're beaten back twice in a row. It might end up complicating Russia's position in the long-term, with NATO and the continent heavily remilitarizing in response, but that's not guaranteed due to the ongoing political situations in the largest NATO states, and either way that's a problem for tomorrow. Also, it should be noted that for all their posturing, qualitatively none of the support NATO claims to be sending to Ukraine amounts to loving anything - all the troops are being put on alert 'in case the fighting spills out of Ukraine' (aka "we're not crossing borders"), and no amount of ATGMs are gonna change the warfighting calculus because that's simply not a space where Ukraine is lacking. The one thing they really need and that NATO literally lacks the capability to give them is Air Defense.
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Jan 24, 2022 21:57
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quote:MOSCOW. Jan 24 (Interfax) - Ukraine's military buildup along the border with the self-proclaimed Luhansk (LPR) and Donetsk (DPR) People's Republics indicates ongoing preparations for an offensive, and such threat really exists, the Kremlin said.
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Jan 24, 2022 22:03
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How are u posted:As an American, I would consider it to my benefit to live in a world full more of thriving democracies than authoritarian kleptocracies. The freedom of people around the world to choose their own governments is something I value, and something that I think our nation should value. shame about all those democracies that the US made into kleptocracies. The US clearly doesnt think its mission is to spread democracy to all corners of the planet, and hasn't since 1793, since it made war on Europe's strongest democracy. FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 22:08 on Jan 24, 2022 |
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Jan 24, 2022 22:05
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This seems bad.
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Jan 24, 2022 22:06
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Just to re-confirm since the rapid response force or whatever has come up lately: No plans for U.S. troops to deploy to Ukraine to deter Russia. If Putin invades, he faces largely "economic consequences," Kirby says
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Jan 24, 2022 22:10
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nurmie posted:i propose the following conditions for my counter- I think these are reasonable and accept Edit: assuming toxxes are still a thing on the forums, I know for a while they weren't allowed but with Jeff owning the site maybe that has changed. Unless a mod says otherwise I will assume the toxx stands in effect HonorableTB fucked around with this message at 22:22 on Jan 24, 2022 |
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Jan 24, 2022 22:12
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to HonorableTB:
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FishBulbia posted:shame about all those democracies that the US made into kleptocracies. The US clearly doesnt think its mission is to spread democracy to all corners of the planet, and hasn't since 1793, since it made war on Europe's strongest democracy. Indeed. We can do better. Doesn't make standing up for and defending democracy any less important.
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Jan 24, 2022 22:15
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzLT6_TQmq8
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Jan 24, 2022 22:24
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Conspiratiorist posted:If Russia can win this war rapidly and decisively it forces a new era of security calculus back in Europe, particularly if NATO shows themselves completely impotent as they're beaten back twice in a row. The problem tomorrow becomes Russians going to the streets in protest as the economy collapses and caskets start going home and the average Russian is further impoverished and sent to kill a brotherly nation and not these Clancy great victory and showing impotence of NATO things
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Jan 24, 2022 22:31
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CommieGIR posted:Yeah, worth noting that Russia is pissed about Ukraine being "NATO on their doorstep" I appreciate yours and the responses of others but this wasn't really the crux of my question. I was more interested in what Ukrainians are actually thinking and whether there is any appetite to accept less than ideal situations in order to prevent an invasion. This applies regardless of what the Russians actually will do or not do. Ie Is there any reporting on any acceptable series of concessions that is not being publicly stated by the Ukranian government if it means Putin will back off. Similarly what is the mood on the streets, especially in the western, pro EU end of the country. Is there a sentiment of 'let's make a deal' or is both the government and the population willing to fight and go down with the proverbial ship for unmitigated sovereignty? I ask because everything I google ends up with articles about what Putin wants or what the US does not want but very few articles talk about what the Ukrainians are willing to actually accept when the rubber meets the road so to speak. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/19/ukraine-frontline-fear-and-defiance This article for example seems to say this one guy is willing to fight it out despite acknowledging massive casualties and the likelihood of Russian occupation and speculates on partisan warfare if occupied. Is he alone? Is the Ukrainian government also of that all or nothing mindset? Like is there links to translated newspaper opinion articles that reflect the Ukrainian mindsets with respect to the spectrum of outcomes it can lie with it means avoiding war.
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Jan 24, 2022 22:35
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Somaen posted:The problem tomorrow becomes Russians going to the streets in protest as the economy collapses and caskets start going home and the average Russian is further impoverished and sent to kill a brotherly nation and not these Clancy great victory and showing impotence of NATO things But have you considered Putin is evil and stupid?
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Jan 24, 2022 22:36
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MikeC posted:I appreciate yours and the responses of others but this wasn't really the crux of my question. I was more interested in what Ukrainians are actually thinking and whether there is any appetite to accept less than ideal situations in order to prevent an invasion. This applies regardless of what the Russians actually will do or not do. You don’t seem to get that the minimum concessions Russia is ready to accept are total capitulation and relinquishment of sovereignty. Ukrainians, naturally, are disinclined to surrender their constitutional ambitions and aspirations just because Putin has some demands - the man has proven his beliefs, and strength of his word, enough with Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk already.
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Jan 24, 2022 22:50
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MikeC posted:Ie Is there any reporting on any acceptable series of concessions that is not being publicly stated by the Ukranian government if it means Putin will back off. Similarly what is the mood on the streets, especially in the western, pro EU end of the country. Is there a sentiment of 'let's make a deal' or is both the government and the population willing to fight and go down with the proverbial ship for unmitigated sovereignty? No, I did address them: Those were the Russian terms. They want NATO to scoot west of Eastern Germany. They want Ukraine to become a loose association rather than a State. They want to limit and even have veto of who can and cannot join NATO. They want to limit Ukraine's access to the EU https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59696450 https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790803/?lang=en&clear_cache=Y None of these are starters. None of these are even really negotiable.
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Jan 24, 2022 22:51
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Conspiratiorist posted:But have you considered Putin is evil and stupid? This. There is of course a calculus to the actions of people that manage to rise to such power, but history has shown time and again that absolutely no-one is safe from committing overwhelmingly obvious self-owns. Whatever reasons Putin has to think invading Ukraine is better than not invading, even if he's half right the chances of this blowing up in his face and giving him a x10 worse result are very high. This will galvanize NATO, probably expand NATO, it will cost his economy trillions, and subject his populace to a war far worse than Afghanistan. Which is why he might still not do it, but the posturing isn't getting him anywhere so I don't know what other game he might be playing.
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Jan 24, 2022 23:02
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Putin is smart. But he's getting older. It's possible he has shrunk down to a more Erdogan level brain.
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Jan 24, 2022 23:06
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Orthanc6 posted:and subject his populace to a war far worse than Afghanistan. Not unless the intention is take everything East of the Dnieper, in which case I don't even dare guess how that's gonna play out beyond short-term. If it's securing access to Crimea and showcasing the impotence of Zelensky and NATO by crushing Ukraine's military with artillery and ballistic missiles, then that'd be achievable far more cheaply than 'an Afghanistan'.
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Jan 24, 2022 23:15
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Grape posted:Putin is smart.
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Jan 24, 2022 23:22
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CommieGIR posted:None of these are starters. None of these are even really negotiable. Putin's trying to play hardball and may well follow through on the threats, but there's probably more than meets the eye going on.
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Jan 24, 2022 23:23
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Grape posted:But he's getting older. It's possible he has shrunk down to a more Erdogan level brain.
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Jan 24, 2022 23:25
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Conspiratiorist posted:Not unless the intention is take everything East of the Dnieper, in which case I don't even dare guess how that's gonna play out beyond short-term. I think a regime change like the UK claims Russia is planning would lead to "Russian Afghanistan" too. You would have to leave troops behind since Ukrainians already managed to oust a pro-russian autocrat when the average ukrainian was far more sympathetic to russia and i think there would absolutely be guerilla attacks on russian troops in that circumstance.
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Jan 24, 2022 23:30
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:I think a regime change like the UK claims Russia is planning would lead to "Russian Afghanistan" too. You would have to leave troops behind since Ukrainians already managed to oust a pro-russian autocrat when the average ukrainian was far more sympathetic to russia and i think there would absolutely be guerilla attacks on russian troops in that circumstance. I hear Kadyrov offered to pacify Ukraine after the war. Maybe that's the plan.
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Jan 24, 2022 23:35
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Crossposting from yossec thread. https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2022/01/hactivists-say-they-hacked-belarus-rail-system-to-stop-russian-military-buildup/ Supposedly, someone has encrypted Belarus central railway IT systems with ransomware, demanding that the buildup of Russian forces in Belarus is stopped and that medically vulnerable political prisoners are released.
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Jan 24, 2022 23:38
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:I think a regime change like the UK claims Russia is planning would lead to "Russian Afghanistan" too. You would have to leave troops behind since Ukrainians already managed to oust a pro-russian autocrat when the average ukrainian was far more sympathetic to russia and i think there would absolutely be guerilla attacks on russian troops in that circumstance. I think people are overestimating how much resistance there would be in a post-war Ukraine because they're applying a jihadist concept to Europe. Doesn't pretty much every country in eastern Europe have a lot of young people looking to leave for better jobs elsewhere as it is? That kind of suggests to me that nationalism isn't the top priority on everyone's mind, though obviously war has and would radicalize some. Assuming Russia would allow disaffected youths to leave, and that nations sympathetic to Ukraine wouldn't suddenly cut off all migration from the country, why stay and die for Ukraine when you can get a job somewhere else that pays better than what you made before the war? That's not a realistic avenue for everyone, but I do think it's a critical escape valve.
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Jan 24, 2022 23:48
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Sinteres posted:I think people are overestimating how much resistance there would be in a post-war Ukraine because they're applying a jihadist concept to Europe. Doesn't pretty much every country in eastern Europe have a lot of young people looking to leave for better jobs elsewhere as it is? That kind of suggests to me that nationalism isn't the top priority on everyone's mind, though obviously war has and would radicalize some. Assuming Russia would allow disaffected youths to leave, and that nations sympathetic to Ukraine wouldn't suddenly cut off all migration from the country, why stay and die for Ukraine when you can get a job somewhere else that pays better than what you made before the war? That's not a realistic avenue for everyone, but I do think it's a critical escape valve. This uh 'muslims are more attracted to violence than christian Europeans' take you have there might be one you want to take away and rethink for a bit. e: also you may or may not have noticed that conflict in the Middle East is a pretty significant cause of refugee/migration flows.
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Jan 24, 2022 23:52
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Alchenar posted:This uh 'muslims are more attracted to violence than christian Europeans' take you have there might be one you want to take away and rethink for a bit. That wasn't the take, but it's perhaps telling that you leapt to that conclusion. My point was more about how religious extremism has been shown to be a massive force multiplier in Syria and Iraq, where jihadist rebels massively outperformed secular/moderate rebels. I don't think Ukraine has religious extremist militias as far as I know, and the Ukrainian Orthodox Church isn't in a holy war with the Russian Orthodox Church anyway. I do think there are some key cultural differences between Russia/Ukraine and a country like Afghanistan, as well as economic differences, which don't just boil down to Christian vs Muslim.
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Jan 24, 2022 23:55
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Sinteres posted:I think people are overestimating how much resistance there would be in a post-war Ukraine because they're applying a jihadist concept to Europe. Doesn't pretty much every country in eastern Europe have a lot of young people looking to leave for better jobs elsewhere as it is? That kind of suggests to me that nationalism isn't the top priority on everyone's mind, though obviously war has and would radicalize some. Assuming Russia would allow disaffected youths to leave, and that nations sympathetic to Ukraine wouldn't suddenly cut off all migration from the country, why stay and die for Ukraine when you can get a job somewhere else that pays better than what you made before the war? That's not a realistic avenue for everyone, but I do think it's a critical escape valve. Alchenar has pointed out the obviously gross part of your post, but I also have some light reading for you: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Insurgent_Army Protip, one of the first things that happened when the Red Army retook Ukraine is that Ukrainians started fighting them instead of the Nazis, including immediately assassinating the Front commander who had 'liberated' Kiev.
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Jan 24, 2022 23:58
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Generation Internet posted:Alchenar has pointed out the obviously gross part of your post, but I also have some light reading for you: Just as there are massive differences between Afghanistan and Ukraine, I think there are also massive differences between the 1940's and the 2020's.
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Jan 24, 2022 23:59
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Sinteres posted:I think people are overestimating how much resistance there would be in a post-war Ukraine because they're applying a jihadist concept to Europe. Doesn't pretty much every country in eastern Europe have a lot of young people looking to leave for better jobs elsewhere as it is? That kind of suggests to me that nationalism isn't the top priority on everyone's mind, though obviously war has and would radicalize some. Assuming Russia would allow disaffected youths to leave, and that nations sympathetic to Ukraine wouldn't suddenly cut off all migration from the country, why stay and die for Ukraine when you can get a job somewhere else that pays better than what you made before the war? That's not a realistic avenue for everyone, but I do think it's a critical escape valve. Young people desiring to earn more money is not a human trait exclusive to Eastern Europe. You pretty much only hear about what you say in the context of Eastern EU, where mass scale migration (e.g., >10% of Latvian population, for example) pursuing stock mercantilism is trivially achievable to a significant and swift gain. In my experience, the more nationalist someone is, the less likely they are to emigrate at all - either out of pride for their home, or hate for the iffy others somewhere else. If they must do that, it'll be for the lowest possible duration - to get an advanced university degree, to save up cash for the initial payment on a mortgage, etcetera. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 00:04 on Jan 25, 2022 |
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Jan 24, 2022 23:59
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Sinteres posted:Just as there are massive differences between Afghanistan and Ukraine, I think there are also massive differences between the 1940's and the 2020's. I'm curious why you think religious extremism is a massive force multiplier but nationalism is not, especially given the historical context which is still within living memory.
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Jan 25, 2022 00:03
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Generation Internet posted:I'm curious why you think religious extremism is a massive force multiplier but nationalism is not, especially given the historical context which is still within living memory. I could be wrong but I just don't expect Ukrainians to be as willing to fight to the death for their country as people who believe they're called by God to do so would. Like I think most people would admit that the public in the West has been made docile to some extent by modern conveniences, and I guess I think Ukraine has gotten enough of that to calm things down a bit. Like I'd personally rather play video games than fight for my homeland if it came down to it, and while I'm sure there are exceptions, I assume many Ukrainians feel the same way.
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Jan 25, 2022 00:06
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Sinteres posted:I think people are overestimating how much resistance there would be in a post-war Ukraine because they're applying a jihadist concept to Europe. This is a loving weird thing to say, man. Fighting to defend your home and your family is a "jihadist concept", excuse me, what? quote:Doesn't pretty much every country in eastern Europe have a lot of young people looking to leave for better jobs elsewhere as it is? That kind of suggests to me that nationalism isn't the top priority on everyone's mind, though obviously war has and would radicalize some. Assuming Russia would allow disaffected youths to leave, and that nations sympathetic to Ukraine wouldn't suddenly cut off all migration from the country, why stay and die for Ukraine when you can get a job somewhere else that pays better than what you made before the war? That's not a realistic avenue for everyone, but I do think it's a critical escape valve. This is also a weird way to look at the world. People love their homes. People love their culture and their family and their history. People fight to defend those things when outsiders launch a war of aggression to take them away. There's nothing weird about that, it's fundamentally human. e: quote:Like I think most people would admit that the public in the West has been made docile to some extent by modern conveniences, and I guess I think Ukraine has gotten enough of that to calm things down a bit. Ah. Docile, soft Westerns as compared to hardened, hardy, mountain Muslims. Gotcha. 
How are u fucked around with this message at 00:10 on Jan 25, 2022 |
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Jan 25, 2022 00:08
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How are u posted:This is a loving weird thing to say, man. Fighting to defend your home and your family is a "jihadist concept", excuse me, what? I wasn't saying fighting to defend your home and family is jihadist, but that when people talk about Ukraine being a new Afghanistan for Russia they're talking about the Ukrainian population like it's primed to turn into battle hardened jihadists like Afghanistan obviously has overnight. I mean for a recent example of a country that's at least Eastern European-ish, Armenians in Karabakh didn't start a massive insurgency campaign after getting rocked by Azerbaijan. They fled, were forcibly expelled, or mostly found a way to deal. How are u posted:Ah. Docile, soft Westerns as compared to hardened, hardy, mountain Muslims. Gotcha. Afghanistan is desperately poor in a way that no country in Europe is, and host to a bunch of foreign fighters/has fought for decades. It's apples and oranges and you're the one saying the difference is just that Afghanistan is Muslim, not me. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 00:12 on Jan 25, 2022 |
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Jan 25, 2022 00:09
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It's also not like a majority of Afghans joined the Taliban. Or the Vietcong. Or whatever. Insurgencies just need a sufficient pool to recruit from. e; KOSOVO
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Jan 25, 2022 00:12
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This seems like the kind of derail that might merit its own thread.
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Jan 25, 2022 00:12
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Cugel the Clever posted:This seems like the kind of derail that might merit its own thread. I'm happy to just drop it if people will stop misrepresenting what I said.
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Jan 25, 2022 00:13
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cinci zoo sniper posted:You don’t seem to get that the minimum concessions Russia is ready to accept are total capitulation and relinquishment of sovereignty. Ukrainians, naturally, are disinclined to surrender their constitutional ambitions and aspirations just because Putin has some demands - the man has proven his beliefs, and strength of his word, enough with Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk already. CommieGIR posted:No, I did address them: Those were the Russian terms. They want NATO to scoot west of Eastern Germany. They want Ukraine to become a loose association rather than a State. They want to limit and even have veto of who can and cannot join NATO. They want to limit Ukraine's access to the EU Not sure why we keep going on about what Russia wants. I was kinda interested in knowing where the line in the sand for the Ukrainians is at this point (ie the current discussion about how enthusiastic the Ukrainians really are for war the past few posts). I thought I made that explicitly clear in my post but whatever. I'll try another tack then. If there are Ukrainian posters here either in Ukraine or ex-pats, can you point me to what you consider are the best free newspapers/media outlets - preferably those that allow users to comment/discuss and I'll hope google translate holds up. Preferably a smatter across the spectrum from pro-Russian to die-hard EU/NATO or bust papers. If you feel the state of the media in Ukraine is such that it is 100% unreliable in terms of speaking for the populace, then let me know so I don't waste a bunch of time just struggling through a bunch of state/Russian propaganda. IE According to Wikipedia Kyiv Post is legit (and happily in english). Does anyone feel that its views are radical and not reflective of the Ukrainian population? Sinteres posted:I think people are overestimating how much resistance there would be in a post-war Ukraine because they're applying a jihadist concept to Europe. Doesn't pretty much every country in eastern Europe have a lot of young people looking to leave for better jobs elsewhere as it is? That kind of suggests to me that nationalism isn't the top priority on everyone's mind, though obviously war has and would radicalize some. Assuming Russia would allow disaffected youths to leave, and that nations sympathetic to Ukraine wouldn't suddenly cut off all migration from the country, why stay and die for Ukraine when you can get a job somewhere else that pays better than what you made before the war? That's not a realistic avenue for everyone, but I do think it's a critical escape valve. https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-invasion-calm-fears/31633377.html dated Dec 30,2021 has figures of about 1 in 3 willing to join the army overall. Support is greatest in the western regions of the country where support is 2 in 5. Those in the east, close to the Russian border/Donbas region support falls to 1 in 4. This was also taken at a time when Ukrainians apparently felt that war was very unlikely (1/4 felt that war was a possibility). So how the sentiments have shifted I am unsure given that invasion looks like it could kick off any minute now. Hence my interested in more up to date stances both publicly and behind the scenes as well as up to date public sentiment. MikeC fucked around with this message at 00:31 on Jan 25, 2022 |
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Jan 25, 2022 00:16
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https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1485681281539227651 What incentives would the West have for destabilizing Ukraine?
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Jan 25, 2022 00:29
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MikeC posted:Not sure why we keep going on about what Russia wants. Because Russia is the aggressor, and it neither cares what Ukraine wants, nor presents their demands on a sliding scale. Russia comes with a single core demand, "become our subservient vassal state", which is automatically refused for obvious reasons. What the gently caress do you expect this theoretical "reasonable Ukrainian counter-offer" to be here? "Sorry, Mr. Putin, the best we can do is 7 gallons of espresso"? FishBulbia posted:https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1485681281539227651 I think that's a complaint based on observed reality, not an accusation of intent.
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Jan 25, 2022 00:29
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MikeC posted:IE According to Wikipedia Kyiv Post is legit (and happily in english). Does anyone feel that its views are radical and not reflective of the Ukrainian population? Kyiv Post is in a bit of hell rn. Oligarch took over and shut it down, and then left. Its chaos!
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Jan 25, 2022 00:30
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Generation Internet posted:I'm curious why you think religious extremism is a massive force multiplier but nationalism is not, especially given the historical context which is still within living memory. I think the main force multiplier is that while Afghanistan is a mountainous country with lots of remote areas controlled by de facto independent regional clans, Ukraine is pretty much the opposite of that in every way. Like probably as close as you can get to waging modern warfare in frictionless vacuum. I don't see how saying there wouldn't be an insurgency comparable to Afghanistan is controversial. steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 00:33 on Jan 25, 2022 |
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