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https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1485686161871982593 https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1485622501862428684 France coming down against the invasion, it would be interesting if this was drummed up by the US to force Kyiv to surrender some unreasonable positions.
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Jan 25, 2022 00:34
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FishBulbia posted:Kyiv Post is in a bit of hell rn. Oligarch took over and shut it down, and then left. Its chaos! https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1462698415146610688?t=3Pi12WKOf7nZEfu_dpibOQ&s=19
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Jan 25, 2022 00:35
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Cugel the Clever posted:The majority of the journalists formerly at the Post created the Kyiv Independent: Thank you, this was helpful.
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Jan 25, 2022 00:37
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steinrokkan posted:I think the main force multiplier is that while Afghanistan is a mountainous country with lots of remote areas controlled by de facto independent regional clans, Ukraine is pretty much the opposite of that in every way. Like probably as close as you can get to waging modern warfare in frictionless vacuum. As usual with Sinteres posts, the best charitable reading involves assuming that you're reading a retired CIA analyst with stunted emotional development talking about "the real politics". "Insurgencies in Afghanistan and Ukraine would play out differently" is a perfectly normal thing to say (if you feel that saying something as obvious out loud adds anything to the conversation). However, here I think you'd ask a lot from the reader to not interpret the opening sentence as "we're in civilized europe, it's the oriental believers who really do partake in violence".
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Jan 25, 2022 00:38
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cinci zoo sniper posted:As usual with Sinteres posts, the best charitable reading involves assuming that you're reading a retired CIA analyst with stunted emotional development talking about "the real politics". "Insurgencies in Afghanistan and Ukraine would play out differently" is a perfectly normal thing to say (if you feel that saying something as obvious out loud adds anything to the conversation). However, here I think you'd ask a lot from the reader to not interpret the opening sentence as "we're in civilized europe, it's the oriental believers who really do partake in violence". Multiple people had mentioned Afghanistan in the context of a possible insurgency, so I didn't pull it out of the ether all on my own. But anyway the most effective jihadist fighters who so dramatically outperformed the nationlist Syrian rebels were foreign fighters, and I just don't see battle hardened militias, Christian or otherwise, showing up in Ukraine to create the conditions for the kind of fighting seen in countries with jihadist insurgencies. When I was contrasting Ukraine with jihadist violence I was referring to a specific thing, not to Muslims as a whole--the Syrian FSA rebels were also Muslims of course, just not jihadists. Like I said, I'm happy to drop it since people can't stop jumping to the worst possible conclusions here, but I think I've been pretty clear now, and your extremely ungenerous paraphrasing isn't appreciated. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 00:51 on Jan 25, 2022 |
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Jan 25, 2022 00:48
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Sinteres posted:I could be wrong but I just don't expect Ukrainians to be as willing to fight to the death for their country as people who believe they're called by God to do so would. Like I think most people would admit that the public in the West has been made docile to some extent by modern conveniences, and I guess I think Ukraine has gotten enough of that to calm things down a bit. Like I'd personally rather play video games than fight for my homeland if it came down to it, and while I'm sure there are exceptions, I assume many Ukrainians feel the same way. The IRA and Basque Separatists??
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Jan 25, 2022 01:00
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Sinteres posted:I could be wrong but I just don't expect Ukrainians to be as willing to fight to the death for their country as people who believe they're called by God to do so would. Like I think most people would admit that the public in the West has been made docile to some extent by modern conveniences, and I guess I think Ukraine has gotten enough of that to calm things down a bit. Like I'd personally rather play video games than fight for my homeland if it came down to it, and while I'm sure there are exceptions, I assume many Ukrainians feel the same way. When you said that jihadists trounced secular rebels in Syria and Iraq, did you entirely forget about the Kurds or
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Jan 25, 2022 01:03
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:The IRA and Basque Separatists?? If Ukrainian nationalists kill like 1500 people over 25 years, I think Russia can live with that. Grape posted:When you said that jihadists trounced secular rebels in Syria and Iraq, did you entirely forget about the Kurds or Well US air support is admittedly a force multiplier, but I don't think Ukrainian insurgents would have that luxury. ISIS tore apart the peshmerga, and while the YPG held out for a while, the US ultimately intervened at Kobane because they were going to be wiped out.
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Jan 25, 2022 01:03
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Sinteres posted:If Ukrainian nationalists kill like 1500 people over 25 years, I think Russia can live with that. No air support true, but they will have massive open borders with core NATO nations on the west and much of the south, including very Russophobic countries like Poland. And please don't try and point out that the Kurds bordered a NATO member because welp lol.
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Jan 25, 2022 01:07
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Grape posted:No air support true, but they will have massive open borders with core NATO nations on the west and much of the south, including very Russophobic countries like Poland. Actually bordering a NATO member is a key point, as it made the Kurds fight harder because they had nowhere to go since Turkey was refusing refugees to cross (despite allowing ISIS use of the border), while an escape valve elsewhere was a big part of my reasoning for why Ukrainians likely wouldn't feel the same need to fight to the last.
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Jan 25, 2022 01:09
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:The IRA and Basque Separatists??
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Jan 25, 2022 01:09
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Russia sacrificed an entire building of child hostages in order to kill the terrorists that were doing the attack
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Jan 25, 2022 01:31
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How are u posted:This is also a weird way to look at the world. People love their homes. People love their culture and their family and their history. People fight to defend those things when outsiders launch a war of aggression to take them away. There's nothing weird about that, it's fundamentally human. I think this whole thread could use some perspective, by reading another thread. https://twitter.com/wiczipedia/status/1485707657692516359?s=20 https://twitter.com/wiczipedia/status/1485707660976693251?s=20 https://twitter.com/wiczipedia/status/1485708685582159877?s=20
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Jan 25, 2022 02:05
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:I think this whole thread could use some perspective, by reading another thread. Indeed. Putin is threatening to invade their home, their home. Like, try to put yourself in their shoes. If some huge neighboring power was massing tanks on the border and threatening to come into the US, to my state, my home, and tear down my government and take away my rights and ability to determine my own life I'd be ready to fight them, too. I think most people would. I think most Americans love their homes, warts and all, and want them to thrive. They don't want to bow to some paranoid little poisoner mafia-boss in Moscow.
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Jan 25, 2022 02:16
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:I think this whole thread could use some perspective, by reading another thread. I do appreciate these reminders of the human factor in all of this, but it's also pretty funny that her Twitter timeline is basically the same wonk talk and hot takes about what the US should do and indistinguishable from talk itt
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Jan 25, 2022 02:30
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America really hosed up by not activating operation dragoon.
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Jan 25, 2022 02:44
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How are u posted:Indeed. There is almost no panic about this war scare in Ukraine. Attitude is little different than a year ago
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Jan 25, 2022 02:46
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FishBulbia posted:There is almost no panic about this war scare in Ukraine. Attitude is little different than a year ago I'm glad if so. Determination to resist is better than panic.
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Jan 25, 2022 02:48
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FishBulbia posted:There is almost no panic about this war scare in Ukraine. Attitude is little different than a year ago Whats your source for this?
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Jan 25, 2022 02:48
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Shes Not Impressed posted:Whats your source for this? Ukrainians. I can only speak for the general attitude in Kyiv and Odessa though. I don't know people in other parts of the country.
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Jan 25, 2022 02:53
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FishBulbia posted:Ukrainians. I can only speak for the general attitude in Kyiv and Odessa though. I don't know people in other parts of the country. My friends in Zakarpattya don't seem to be under the same impression. Nor the ones living in Chernihiv so close to the border. Let's not generalize then.
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Jan 25, 2022 02:56
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I do some English tutoring online and had a student from Ukraine the other day. He was pretty blasé about the whole thing. He basically said if it happens it happens, what can we do about it? The impression I got from him and other Ukrainians I've spoken to was that they've been dealing with Russia's belligerent poo poo for so long now that they've pretty much become inured to it. So, they're just living their lives as normal rather than allowing Putin to terrorize them into a perpetual state of fear, regardless of what they think his actual plans might be. Following on from the above posts, I should note that most of the Ukrainians I've had as students were from Kyiv or near there, so no doubt people in Eastern Ukraine might have different views.
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Jan 25, 2022 03:11
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I really hate that type of twitter person. I worked in the Netherlands for some time, barely speak any Dutch, and have the knowledge of their political situation on the level of wikipedia articles about their major political parties, but I saw The Night Watch at the Rijksmuseum and it really resonated with me, so I will appoint myself as uniquely qualified commentator on all things Dutch. Also, I have relatives in Israel, so let me tell you how big of a piece of poo poo you are for ever typing out 'Palestine' on twitter.com. I've read some other tweets of her, and it's deeply ironic that she's frustrated with 'abstracted discourse'. Posting photos of real people to support your abstract ramblings about freedom is the next level and probably borderline unethical. Did she ask that old woman why she wanted to vote for Zelenskyi? Does she know what that old woman thinks about Zelenskyi now? Do opinions of that old woman about the war and economical issues actually matter in any way or is she just a convenient prop for a professional pundit? It's also insane that all this is sold under the flat and unnuanced asides, like that the Kremlin 'decried the legitimacy' of Ukrainian elections. Putin personally congratulated both Poroshenko and Zelenskyi on winning their respective elections, he signed official documents with both in their capacity as presidents, etc. The ever fluctuating narratives of the Russian state propaganda are different from Kremlin's official position, of course, and for a good reason, too. I would expect someone who apparently wrote a whole book on Russian disinformation campaigns try to avoid weird generalisations like that that may give less informed people the wrong idea about the situation.
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Jan 25, 2022 03:22
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I dare say there's a world of difference between living near Kyiv, and living near the areas likely to become active combat zones in the case of a 'minor incursion'.
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Jan 25, 2022 03:22
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Paladinus posted:I really hate that type of twitter person. I worked in the Netherlands for some time, barely speak any Dutch, and have the knowledge of their political situation on the level of wikipedia articles about their major political parties, but I saw The Night Watch at the Rijksmuseum and it really resonated with me, so I will appoint myself as uniquely qualified commentator on all things Dutch. Also, I have relatives in Israel, so let me tell you how big of a piece of poo poo you are for ever typing out 'Palestine' on twitter.com. I also really doubt her pension would be much better if the war didnt happen
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Jan 25, 2022 03:43
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Paladinus posted:I really hate that type of twitter person. I worked in the Netherlands for some time, barely speak any Dutch, and have the knowledge of their political situation on the level of wikipedia articles about their major political parties, but I saw The Night Watch at the Rijksmuseum and it really resonated with me, so I will appoint myself as uniquely qualified commentator on all things Dutch. I would go one step further and say that this also applies to natives of a country. "REAL XYZians like me think that...". I doubt the opinions or predictions of self-selected insiders are generally better than those of well-educated outside experts. Maybe there's some empirical evidence.
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Jan 25, 2022 03:58
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Guys I want to fight for the Ukrainian side in the coming war with Russia I've heard good things about Azov battalion protecting Ukraine from the USSR and they have very fancy uniforms. Anyone else heard anything? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 25, 2022 04:09
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Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:I would go one step further and say that this also applies to natives of a country. "REAL XYZians like me think that...". They are generally better informed than outsider experts. Doesn't mean every native is more knowledgeable than any expert, but generally speaking, if you take a sample of native and foreign political commentators, the former are generally more knowledgeable. Of course, there's an issue of audiences and platforms. When Russian state propaganda platforms a Latvian Covid denier to comment on the lack of democracy in Latvia, it's not much better for the audience than a random Russian pundit who can't name two Latvian politicians coming to the same conclusion. Similarly, if you follow a native who chooses to have a twitter account aimed exclusively at the Western audience, chances are they have some kind of a bias, be it an RT journalist or a self-described democratic opposition activist. They will be more knowledgeable than most outsiders, but you, as an outsider yourself, will need to exercise caution with how you interpret their opinions.
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Jan 25, 2022 04:27
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It reminds me of the little girl from Syria who, according to a slew of self proclaimed journalists, begged Obama to do more done strikes. Just stomach churning cynicism of abusing bits and pieces of personal stories to guilt people into accepting your personal agenda.WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Guys I want to fight for the Ukrainian side in the coming war with Russia I've heard good things about Azov battalion protecting Ukraine from the USSR and they have very fancy uniforms. Anyone else heard anything? isn't this your own thread?
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Jan 25, 2022 07:52
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https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1485894733574594562
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Jan 25, 2022 09:58
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Sinteres posted:Just as there are massive differences between Afghanistan and Ukraine, I think there are also massive differences between the 1940's and the 2020's. out of curiosity, have you spent much time in former soviet states? particularly any of the ones with especially adversarial histories with russia and/or the soviet union? I think you really fail to understand just how russians, and especially the russian state, are viewed.
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Jan 25, 2022 10:24
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Herstory Begins Now posted:out of curiosity, have you spent much time in former soviet states? particularly any of the ones with especially adversarial histories with russia and/or the soviet union? I think you really fail to understand just how russians, and especially the russian state, are viewed. i happen to be russian, from a former soviet state. i'd like to ask you the same question you're asking sinteres  also, if you could expand on how exactly do you think russians are viewed, and by whom, and in which post-soviet states, that'd be nice
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Jan 25, 2022 10:32
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Regardless of our origins, I think we would all appreciate it if posters did the minimum bar of 'check wikipedia' before posting takes like 'the russian and ukranian orthodox churches don't appear to be in conflict or anything as far as I know'.
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Jan 25, 2022 10:46
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nurmie posted:i happen to be russian, from a former soviet state. i'd like to ask you the same question you're asking sinteres It varies hugely? Which is why I'm curious given that sinteres seems to be assigning a kind of flat emotional pathos to ukranians. Personally I lived in czech republic and particularly prague had an especially negative view of russians for probably obvious reasons relating to the soviet era, but also in the modern era where they were viewed as responsible for much of the organized crime, gambling, and sex trafficking plus a bunch of other complaints that i don't have the depth of knowledge to judge the accuracy of. Eastern czech republic seemed to feel less antagonistic towards russians, though I might just not have picked up on it. I was learning russian, ironically largely from ukranians, during the first round of little green men popping up and sentiments from ukranians I talked to ranged from deep sadness and a feeling of futility and some anger and idk some substantial amount of nationalism, albeit more towards the place than towards the government. I didn't know anyone in the breakaway areas so idk how russians are perceived there. I also didn't know anyone who was deeply into ukranian nationalism, though there apparently are quite a few of them so I certainly can't speak to how they feel. Tbh I saw more people just deeply sad and resigned about the state of things than anything else. idk if any of that is particularly representative, it was just my experience What about you? you probably can address this vastly better than I can, and more freshly than my experience, too. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 10:57 on Jan 25, 2022 |
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Jan 25, 2022 10:53
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How are u posted:Indeed. Your post describes exactly why Russia cannot allow the Ukraine to invite hostile Nato assets into Russias borders. I’m going to assume you simply forgot that this is not some distant nation that Russia is picking on. That what Nato thinks is acceptable is that it gets to place weapons right next to Russia. Would the US be ok with Mexico allowing a Russian-Chinese alliance to stage weapons on Americas borders?
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Jan 25, 2022 11:07
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Regarde Aduck posted:Your post describes exactly why Russia cannot allow the Ukraine to invite hostile Nato assets into Russias borders. I’m going to assume you simply forgot that this is not some distant nation that Russia is picking on. That what Nato thinks is acceptable is that it gets to place weapons right next to Russia. Would the US be ok with Mexico allowing a Russian-Chinese alliance to stage weapons on Americas borders? If Mexico had Russian military bases, and America attacked Mexico over it and annexed a bunch of territories, would that be justified? Should Mexico, as a sovereign country, be able to decide whose military bases it hosts or should decisions like that be controlled entirely by America?
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Jan 25, 2022 11:15
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Paladinus posted:If Mexico had Russian military bases, and America attacked Mexico over it and annexed a bunch of territories, would that be justified? no, but we also shouldn't pretend that's not exactly what would happen
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Jan 25, 2022 11:16
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Regarde Aduck posted:Your post describes exactly why Russia cannot allow the Ukraine to invite hostile Nato assets into Russias borders. I’m going to assume you simply forgot that this is not some distant nation that Russia is picking on. That what Nato thinks is acceptable is that it gets to place weapons right next to Russia. Would the US be ok with Mexico allowing a Russian-Chinese alliance to stage weapons on Americas borders? There are Russian soldiers and weapons IN Ukraine right now. Russia, not NATO, invaded and made this an issue. Ukraine was never a theat to Russia. Also did you simply forget the hostule NATO assets bordering Russia in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland?
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Jan 25, 2022 11:16
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Truga posted:no, but we also shouldn't pretend that's not exactly what would happen And then what?
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Jan 25, 2022 11:19
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Regarde Aduck posted:Your post describes exactly why Russia cannot allow the Ukraine to invite hostile Nato assets into Russias borders. I’m going to assume you simply forgot that this is not some distant nation that Russia is picking on. That what Nato thinks is acceptable is that it gets to place weapons right next to Russia. Would the US be ok with Mexico allowing a Russian-Chinese alliance to stage weapons on Americas borders? Regarde Aduck posted:Seems like the US and Ukraine are a bunch of clowns and I hope Russia can restore order in those nations in short time and with the minimum amount of casualties Not gonna take this bait.
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Jan 25, 2022 11:21
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