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Which horse film is your favorite? This poll is closed. |
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| Black Beauty |
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2 | 1.06% |
| A Talking Pony!?! |
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4 | 2.13% |
| Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor |
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117 | 62.23% |
| War Horse |
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11 | 5.85% |
| Mr. Hands |
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54 | 28.72% |
| Total: | 188 votes | ||
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Potato Salad posted:Don't bother with freebooter yet, the notion that reinfections are not cumulatively risingly dangerous is DOA, give it a few months unless something is very very wrong across several high quality t cell / humoral response labs -- which is totally plausible, someone can suggest a method of action that upends the proposed understanding of t-cell-printer-broke levels of immune apoptosis and naive t cell depletion, sending the entire field back to the drawing board for another year Maybe I'm having a stroke but I'm really struggling to parse what you are saying here lol
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Jan 25, 2022 15:56
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Carrier posted:Maybe I'm having a stroke but I'm really struggling to parse what you are saying here lol But who knows? Maybe I have it backwards?
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Jan 25, 2022 16:00
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They're saying the opposite.
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Jan 25, 2022 16:12
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Carrier posted:Maybe I'm having a stroke but I'm really struggling to parse what you are saying here lol that's because I wrote poorly Major t cell researchers and immunologists studying the hour-by-hour timeline of the humoral response via hospital blood samples happened to simultaneously bring pre-review prints of their CoV-2-And-You research to publications in ~November. Broad early takeaways are that (1) yes OAS is an issue with CoV-2 much like it's an issue with CHCs, this was broadly expected (2) several answers are proposed for last year's mystery of "guys where did everyone's T cells go in these convalescent and months-after-infection blood samples?" and perhaps some of the proposed methods of action will get weeded out in review it's the synthesis of 1+2 that gets divisive quickly, so that needs many concurring opinions by well respected investigators before accepting anything because, well, immunity is loving intensely complex magical poo poo! Potato Salad fucked around with this message at 16:30 on Jan 25, 2022 |
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Jan 25, 2022 16:23
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Denmark - 25 January 2022 Welp, more of the same. Cases up, hospitalization predictably way up, yet ICU and vent use staying lower. Age groups - I hadn't realized how many elderly never made it to ICU.  src: 21_noegletal_pr_region_pr_fnkt_alder.csv pre:Age Cases Hospital ICU Dead 00-02 26447 850 29 2 03-05 55823 183 9 * 06-09 165430 308 6 * 10-15 104482 237 15 1 16-19 114453 546 21 * 20-39 459754 5225 195 23 40-64 405809 8968 239 300* 65-79 51693 6330 160 1107* 80+ 10493 2618 96 2154 All 1394384 25265 770 29 * age 10-19 deaths: 1 * split the 60-69 group in two Table 1. Actual and Reported Denmark COVID Cases reported per day pre:Actual Reported New Total Date Cases Cases Reinf. Hosp. Hosp. ICU Vent Dead ============================================================================================== Jan 25 --- 43,734 2,856 318 918 44 (+1) 28 (-1) 14 Jan 24 18,677 40,348 2,501 242 894 43 (+1) 29 (+2) 13 Jan 23 37,914 42,018 2,755 215 813 42 (-3) 27 (-1) 12 Jan 22 34,697 36,120 2,285 220 781 45 (+1) 28 (-1) 25 Jan 21 37,406 46,831 3,160 244 813 44 (-5) 29 (+1) 21 Jan 20 37,420 40,626 2,639 232 825 49 (-1) 28 (-2) 15 Jan 19 37,595 38,759 2,285 248 821 50 (+1) 30 (+1) 16 Jan 18 40,303 33,493 2,002 264 810 49 (-3) 29 (-8) 14 Jan 17 41,486 28,780 1,815 203 802 52 (-7) 37 (-4) 11 Jan 16 28,179 26,169 1,614 159 734 59 (+0) 41 (+1) 16 Jan 15 25,188 25,034 1,644 202 711 59 (-1) 40 (+4) 16 Jan 14 25,883 23,614 1,519 215 757 60 (-4) 36 (-2) 15 Jan 13 23,776 25,751 1,822 194 755 64 (-9) 38 (-8) 20 Jan 12 22,575 24,343 1,614 215 751 73 (+0) 46 (+0) 25 Jan 11 22,656 22,936 1,459 181 754 73 (-1) 46 (-1) 14 Jan 10 23,244 14,414 941 156 777 74 (-3) 47 (-3) 9 Jan 09 16,330 19,248 1,327 126 723 77 (-1) 50 (-2) 14 Jan 08 13,573 12,588 984 161 730 78 (+0) 52 (-1) 28 Jan 07 14,434 18,261 1,482 186 755 78 (-4) 53 (+4) 10 Jan 06 15,417 25,995 2,027 161 756 82 (+2) 47 (-2) 11 Jan 05 17,577 28,283 2,083 204 784 80 (+3) 49 (+2) 15 Jan 04 23,698 23,372 1,701 229 792 77 (+4) 47 (+1) 15 Jan 03* 25,617 8,801 532 169 770 73 (-3) 46 (-4) 5 Jan 02 19,906 7,550 404 163 709 76 (+3) 50 (+1) 15 Jan 01 8,631 20,885 1,049 139 647 73 (+0) 49 (+0) 5 Dec 31 9,728 17,605 1,090 177 641 73 (-2) 49 (-1) 11 Dec 30 19,927 21,403 1,123 178 665 75 (-2) 50 (-2) 9 Dec 29 17,245 23,228 1,205 173 675 77 (+6) 52 (+2) 16 Dec 28 21,955 13,000 670 177 666 71 (+1) 50 (+4) 14 Dec 27 22,616 16,164 639 115 608 70 (-1) 46 (-2) 7 Dec 26 10,965 14,844 644 123 579 71 (-2) 43 (+1) 13 Dec 25 7,853 10,027 463 86 522 73 (-1) 44 (+5) 10 Dec 24 7,054 11,229 527 134 509 74 (+2) 39 (+1) 14 Dec 23 12,605 12,487 613 158 541 72 (+6) 38 (+1) 15 Dec 22 11,591 13,386 531 126 524 66 (-1) 37 (+2) 14 Dec 21 13,011 13,558 501 121 526 67 (+1) 35 (+2) 17 Dec 20 13,288 10,082 --- 85 581 66 (+3) 33 (-2) 8 Dec 19 10,231 8,212 Dec 18 10,049 8,594 Dec 17 10.614 11,194 Dec 16 10,171 9,999 Dec 15 10,775 8,773 --- 96 508 66 (+0) 43 (-3) 9 Dec 13 10,294 7,799 --- 61 480 64 (-1) 42 (+0) 9 Dec 12 6,986 5,989 --- 82 468 65 (+5) 42 (+6) 9 Dec 08 6,560 6,629 --- 72 461 66 (-1) 38 (-1) 7 Dec 01 4,464 5,120 --- 88 439 35 (+1) 35 (+1) 14 pre:Date Bed Availability ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 January 328 ICU beds, 54 COVID, 66 available 10 January 331 ICU beds, 72 COVID, 29 available 03 January 331 ICU beds, 76 COVID, 32 available 27 December 316 ICU beds, 71 COVID, 62 available 20 December 317 ICU beds, 60 COVID, 59 available 13 December 319 ICU beds, 64 COVID, 39 available 06 December 310 ICU beds, 67 COVID, 10 available <-- squeaky bum time here 29 November 318 ICU beds, 61 COVID, 25 available https://www.rkkp.dk/kvalitetsdatabaser/databaser/dansk-intensiv-database/resultater/ https://covid19.ssi.dk/overvagningsdata/download-fil-med-overvaagningdata https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/242ec2acc014456295189631586f1d26 https://covid19.ssi.dk/virusvarianter/delta-pcr Rust Martialis fucked around with this message at 17:37 on Jan 25, 2022 |
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Jan 25, 2022 16:54
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dwarf74 posted:our entire understanding of the human immune system (musing to the room, not at you) I think the biggest gripe I have with some of my friends and family through the pandemic is the notion that reinfection must be gentler, per the sum of medical knowledge. Does it? Any person can think of their lived experience. We each get infected by Common Human Coronaviruses (often responsible for common colds) regularly enough. We regularly get influenza reinfections. Over time, genetic drift provides younger strains immune escape capacity, and we get the flu again. Sometimes the infection is nothing, sometimes it sucks. None of this is controversial, yes? Even without getting into potentially-controversial topics like tissue scarring or accelerated immune ageing, to insist that subsequent variants of a disease must be gentler by rule of prior medical understanding is to misinterpret the pathology of some of our most familiar pests. Potato Salad fucked around with this message at 17:38 on Jan 25, 2022 |
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Jan 25, 2022 17:22
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Not to mention the fact that it’s difficult to correctly identify and properly disentangle causality of accumulating health damage. Just look at how long the effects of leaded gas took to pinpoint. Or the fact that we’re only now discovering that the Epstein-Barr virus (which eventually infects about 90% of people) may be the primary direct cause of MS.
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Jan 25, 2022 17:28
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Potato Salad posted:I think the biggest gripe I have with some of my friends and family through the pandemic is the notion that reinfection must be gentler, per the sum of medical knowledge 
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Jan 25, 2022 17:34
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dwarf74 posted:I was trying to interpret a badly-written post, not make an argument wasn't directed at you, just prompted by the bit I quoted. I went and added a claudication 
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Jan 25, 2022 17:37
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Stickman posted:Just look at how long the effects of leaded gas took to pinpoint. That didn't actually take very long at all, doing something about it took decades because of all the business interests involved
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Jan 25, 2022 17:41
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haveblue posted:That didn't actually take very long at all, doing something about it took decades because of all the business interests involved Scientists knew that lead was poisonous in high quantities and many initially suspected that leased gasoline would produce enough contamination to cause problems. But then the Public Health Service decided that the quantity of lead was small enough that it wasn’t a problem, and it took 40+ years to collect evidence about its specific effects and build enough scientific consensus to force action. We all know infectious diseases are hazardous to our health but the specifics of their long-term effects are similarly murky. It’s especially difficult to tease apart effects when diseases are so prevalent that nearly everyone catches them frequently. Stickman fucked around with this message at 18:02 on Jan 25, 2022 |
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Jan 25, 2022 17:58
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haveblue posted:That didn't actually take very long at all, doing something about it took decades because of all the business interests involved Speaking of business interests, it seems business is once again interested in making one of the only successful nations to handle covid look bad: https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1485879735737630724?s=20 https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1485941792100999174?s=20 https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1484961965764235266?s=20 https://twitter.com/AP/status/1484858656650932226?s=20 It’s honestly one of the most pathetic things. This is on the level of something incels would write about women at this point. NYT trash for yuppies posted:
Wow I can’t imagine what this is like, living in the US, with rising hospitalization rates and death rates higher than the peak of delta. virtualboyCOLOR fucked around with this message at 18:47 on Jan 25, 2022 |
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Jan 25, 2022 18:42
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I think my favorite thing is the idea that they are going to be less prepared for endemic Covid, real galaxy brain poo poo here.
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Jan 25, 2022 18:55
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Apparently there was some NY State lawsuit where some judge ruled classroom mask rules unconstitutional, so I woke up to an email (sent late last night) that said masks were now optional in my daughter's school district. The CHUD parents are celebrating and parroting the "it's your ~personal choice~ if you want to wear a mask, just like it's your ~personal choice~ if you want to keep your kids home and home school them" lines that are fully of selfish attitude. It's all using children as political pawns as usual, because there's already an appeal filed and I've heard as soon as a stay is granted, it's right back to mandatory masks. Which will confuse the hell out of kids - it's already happened once before, last year.
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Jan 25, 2022 18:58
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Real foggy brains https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-01-23/niall-ferguson-china-s-covid-victory-over-america-is-pyramids posted:(Pyramids??) e: wrong thread, but you’re welcome.
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Jan 25, 2022 18:58
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mawarannahr posted:Real foggy brains I think that one got posted up above by VBC but I appreciate not having to click a Bloomberg link to read it in full. 
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Jan 25, 2022 19:02
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virtualboyCOLOR posted:This I agree with. Despite China being pro zero covid the Olympics are a huge misstep on their part. We’ll see how they handle it. Every athlete crossing that border will be quarantined, isolated, and PCR tested repeatedly over a span of at least two weeks before going straight into the Olympic Village bubble. Spectators will be following the standard quarantine + test that everyone entering the country undergoes. Around four million people visit China every year during normal times, I'm sure that number is a hell of a lot lower right now, but it's large enough to be a perfectly good example of how to bring thousands of people in without causing significant outbreaks.
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Jan 25, 2022 19:04
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haveblue posted:That didn't actually take very long at all, doing something about it took decades because of all the business interests involved Consider the crossover factor between this and Open Biden.
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Jan 25, 2022 19:27
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LifeLynx posted:Apparently there was some NY State lawsuit where some judge ruled classroom mask rules unconstitutional, so I woke up to an email (sent late last night) that said masks were now optional in my daughter's school district. The CHUD parents are celebrating and parroting the "it's your ~personal choice~ if you want to wear a mask, just like it's your ~personal choice~ if you want to keep your kids home and home school them" lines that are fully of selfish attitude. It's all using children as political pawns as usual, because there's already an appeal filed and I've heard as soon as a stay is granted, it's right back to mandatory masks. Which will confuse the hell out of kids - it's already happened once before, last year. Yep. My wife is an 8th grade teacher in a more rural district in NY and the kids who were already showing up in Blue Lives Matter gaiters were just showing up without any masks at all today. One kid got written up through six straight periods for refusing to wear a mask and loudly proclaiming his Constitutional Rights and the Nassau ruling when confronted. Admin there is a loving joke and I know they won’t stick up for their teachers, based on everything I’ve seen thus far. You’d figure they’d toss that kid into ISS by about the third write-up in a day, but nope, he’ll be right there in her last period class, when the kids are already at their rowdiest as is. Between seeing my brother’s working conditions in the COVID units as a nurse and the unending nightmare of the American education system my wife is dealing with (wasn’t peachy at her district pre-COVID, this year has been as bad as or worse than early 2020), I really don’t see how much longer these systems can hold up before we start seeing some ~really fun~ responses.
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Jan 25, 2022 20:13
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Potato Salad posted:Major t cell researchers and immunologists studying the hour-by-hour timeline of the humoral response via hospital blood samples happened to simultaneously bring pre-review prints of their CoV-2-And-You research to publications in ~November.
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Jan 25, 2022 20:43
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https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.17.21267350v1 Study of COVID in the young in Scotland. Turns out infants under 1 year have had much higher hospitalization rates for a long time.
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Jan 25, 2022 20:54
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I remember seeing that that Amazon was a bad source of N95s because it mixes legit and counterfeit sources. Is there any further reading on that?
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Jan 25, 2022 20:58
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Lol, "China's covid victory over America." It's literally impossible for a country not named America to do anything without America being involved, in America. Couldn't be the government just didn't want disease running rampant.
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Jan 25, 2022 21:01
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Durr Kommissar posted:You’d figure they’d toss that kid into ISS by about the third write-up in a day, I mean punishment is one thing but launching him into space seems excessive
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Jan 25, 2022 21:01
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mdemone posted:Every athlete crossing that border will be quarantined, isolated, and PCR tested repeatedly over a span of at least two weeks before going straight into the Olympic Village bubble. It will be a test what China is able to accomplish with their zero covid policy. It they succeed, it will be to the embarrassment of every western nation. I assume this is why western media is pulling bullshit about not attending due to ”Concerns about covid” when in reality it’s more that they don’t want to demonstrate there is a method to solving the covid crisis when one lives in a functioning government. I’m sure the second a single athlete has covid there will be a giant echo chamber about how China has failed from the country that reported 1 million covid cases today.
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Jan 25, 2022 21:03
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virtualboyCOLOR posted:It will be a test what China is able to accomplish with their zero covid policy. It they succeed, it will be to the embarrassment of every western nation. I hope you continue to be correct, because the failure of zero-covid with a fast-spreading strain like Omicron will probably be far worse than other countries had with earlier strains. Countries that followed a managed-burn policy decently like DK avoided overwhelming their critical care facilities and by the time Omicron showed up, it has caused ICU and ventilator use to drop. We know vaccination doesn't stop omicron, but it does limit ICU use.
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Jan 25, 2022 21:20
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virtualboyCOLOR posted:Speaking of business interests, it seems business is once again interested in making one of the only successful nations to handle covid look bad: Tbh, opinion pieces are like the trash magizines in check worthless garbage drivel. Or as an old saying an rear end in a top hat spewing poo poo because they think people care. My point being gently caress opinion sections.
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Jan 25, 2022 22:19
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Your third and fourth tweet links are referring to the same article (except the fourth is just going to the AP general covid feed).
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Jan 25, 2022 22:31
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quote:Not only does the Chinese population have essentially no natural immunity from previous infections, thanks to the Zero-Covid strategy; the inferior Chinese-made vaccines also offer little protection against omicron. I always find it weird when America/British commentators crow about how their countries have developed more "natural immunity" - yeah, by racking up hundreds of thousands of corpses and tens of millions of sick people. The absolute worst-case scenario for China at this point means they just... will also go through that and develop that same natural immunity? Except not even, because they are vaccinated even if their vaccine isn't as good? It's like sitting in the ashes of your house and expressing faux concern for your neighbour because if their house ever burns down, it will be really devastating for them - an emotional turmoil which you, fortunately, have already weathered. virtualboyCOLOR posted:It will be a test what China is able to accomplish with their zero covid policy. It they succeed, it will be to the embarrassment of every western nation. I assume this is why western media is pulling bullshit about not attending due to ”Concerns about covid” when in reality it’s more that they don’t want to demonstrate there is a method to solving the covid crisis when one lives in a functioning government. Well also because China has been harassing/arresting/ejecting Western journalists for a few years now
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Jan 25, 2022 22:59
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https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1486100085532512267?s=20 Americans would rather rebel for meaningless freedom from protection than do anything for a greater good.
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Jan 25, 2022 23:19
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Looking for data on whether boosters reduce transmission of Omicron and came across this Danish study on household secondary attack rates: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.27.21268278v1 Am I interpreting this chart correctly? Having a booster reduces your odds of becoming infected by Omicron by about half (column 1)? And having a booster also reduces the odds of infecting someone else with Omicron by about a third (column 3)? Noting that these odds are given relative to fully-vaccinated individuals, can we use the same numbers to calculate the reduction in odds of an infected (but boosted) person transmitting Omicron to another boosted person, relative to the odds if both people were unvaccinated?
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Jan 25, 2022 23:33
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freebooter posted:An incident involving five unvaccinated elderly people in late 2020? Come on man I mean, you're the one who asked for CDC data. There's also this study from the Kaiser system: https://www.clinicalmicrobiologyandinfection.com/article/S1198-743X(21)00422-5/fulltext, which found "Hospitalization was more common at suspected reinfection than initial infection."
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Jan 25, 2022 23:53
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Petey posted:I mean, you're the one who asked for CDC data. There's also this study from the Kaiser system: https://www.clinicalmicrobiologyandinfection.com/article/S1198-743X(21)00422-5/fulltext, which found "Hospitalization was more common at suspected reinfection than initial infection." I'd be surprised if there wasn't more recent similar studies? This is Aug 2021 Edit: there were 36 hospitalized after suspected reinfections and 4094 hospitalized after first infection so the former group is pretty small to do statistics with and the CIs are large Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 00:08 on Jan 26, 2022 |
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Jan 26, 2022 00:05
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UCS Hellmaker posted:Tbh, opinion pieces are like the trash magizines in check worthless garbage drivel. Or as an old saying an rear end in a top hat spewing poo poo because they think people care. Sure but it’s not like opinion pieces just form out of the gutter and invade the news media. These opinion pieces, posted in less than a week, were all green lit by western media. It’s just sad and pathetic. freebooter posted:
Glass Houses etc etc: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2005/11/22/memo-bush-wanted-aljazeera-bombed https://cpj.org/2020/12/in-2020-u-s-journalists-faced-unprecedented-attacks/ https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/02/media/australia-journalists-protests-washington/index.html
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Jan 26, 2022 00:05
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Fritz the Horse posted:On my phone but this study has been brought a couple times. Iirc some drawbacks are there are a small number of total suspected reinfections (315), the change in rates was small other than for immunocompromised people, and the study didn't control for other underlying conditions. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2108120 With Omicron there's probably enough real world reinfection data now to make more robust assessments.
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Jan 26, 2022 00:19
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Petey posted:I mean, you're the one who asked for CDC data. I said "health authorities" and the CDC is not particularly foremost in my mind when I use that phrase, but in a 2-year pandemic I'd rather see something more recent than mid-2020. If reinfections being of increased severity were particularly likely (or even not unlikely) I feel like more of an alert would've been raised by now. Instead I've seen health authorities saying that if someone has previously been infected by COVID their body is more likely to mount a better immune response than if they're immunologically naive. Incidentally, what is the highest number of infections someone's gone through? I remember it wasn't until late 2020 there was the first incident of someone in China or Hong Kong testing positive again, but there must be people out there who've had it three or four time by now. virtualboyCOLOR posted:Glass Houses etc etc: Overzealous American cops failing to discriminate against journos during mass street protests is not remotely the same ballpark as ongoing, top-down intimidation by the actual government. Get back to me when the DHS threatens the 14-year-old daughter of a foreign bureau chief or sends half a dozen plainclothes police to a journalist's apartment late at night.
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Jan 26, 2022 00:44
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NoDamage posted:Looking for data on whether boosters reduce transmission of Omicron and came across this Danish study on household secondary attack rates: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.27.21268278v1 Yes, with some caveats about model assumptions. To get the estimated OR for a boosted vs unvaccinated susceptible household member, we can just divide the two respective ORs:  We can do the same for the OR for the index case. Because the model assumes that the effects of vax status of the index case and status of the susceptible household member are independent (and that transmissibility is identical for Omicron and Delta households), we would just multiply to get the OR considering both susceptible and index case status:  Unfortunately, there's no way to compute confidence intervals without additional information about the covariances of ORs (technically covariances of log ORs). There's a couple of big caveats, but the biggest is the assumption that transmissibility is the same between variants. They apparently included some degree of model selection because the stratification of susceptibility was only included after the interaction was found to be statistically significant, but it's usually a good idea to include theoretically plausible interactions regardless of the statistical significance in a particular model fit. It also seems plausible that the source and susceptible vax status may not be independent, though they likely didn't have a sufficient sample to estimate all pairs separately. There are also potential unadjusted confounders like behavior, distancing, mask wearing, etc. E: Also keep in mind that is is the reduction in transmission odds within a household over 7 days. In other settings and over different time periods the reduction might be different. Stickman fucked around with this message at 05:49 on Jan 26, 2022 |
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Jan 26, 2022 00:59
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Masks are back on in the school district. A whole 24 hours of no masks. Elementary school kids were fine, but upper grades descended into bullying kids who still wore masks. And the parents aren't any better.
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Jan 26, 2022 01:32
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It would be much better if children bullied those who did not wear masks.
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Jan 26, 2022 02:09
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freebooter posted:but there must be people out there who've had it three or four time by now. UKHSA has tracked/announced multiple confirmed 3xers.
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Jan 26, 2022 02:34
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