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Don't worry. Like Afghanistan, the Ukraine government has said there's No need for undue alarm. "" New security alert moments ago from US Embassy in Ukraine, effectively urging Americans to leave while there's still time. "The U.S. Embassy urges U.S. citizens in Ukraine to consider departing now using commercial or other privately available transportation options" "" "" The Biden admin is set to send Russia a written response to concerns Moscow has publicly released & US proposals on a path forward as soon as today, but the response is unlikely to characterize the likelihood of Ukraine joining NATO in the short term ""
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Jan 26, 2022 17:19
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https://twitter.com/zacharybasu/status/1486359158920253444?t=z1-_uRz2Z8R2OKEzaCTYMw&s=19
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Jan 26, 2022 17:35
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When I saw they were sending helmets I thought it seemed like a worse than nothing show of solidarity too. But tbf it doesn't escalate tensions and make an invasion more likely in the way that more aggressive military aid might, so maybe it's actually better from that perspective. Like Russia's obviously responsible for this crisis (with some caveats about joint responsibility for the conditions in the long run which I think are important, but not the point of this post), but if Putin's looking for a way to climb down, the West funneling military aid obviously provides the opposite of that, since it confirms rather than assuages any legitimate fears Russia may have. Everyone recognizes that if Ukraine engaged in preemptive cross border fire that would be massively counterproductive and a gift to Russia since they'd have a clear casus belli, and in a lesser sense I think the funneling of military assistance plays into Russian concerns/propaganda in a way that could lead to Russia deciding they have no choice but to act now or watch a West emboldened by Russia blinking at this moment increase arms cooperation even if tensions are lowered on the Russian side.
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Jan 26, 2022 17:53
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That's right, Ukrainians should stop being ungrateful and instead show themselves appreciative of the enlightened wisdom of their friends in the West.  In any case, like I have said earlier in the thread there's literally no aid NATO can deliver that'd actually change the fighting calculus, though defense contractors sure are salivating at the prospect of, once the dust settles, there being an entire a country in need of replacing the bulk of the equipment across their military with a dream of restoring their lost territory or protecting themselves against future aggression or something like that.
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Jan 26, 2022 18:07
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I guess this means the moment of truth is here, whatever is in that written response probably sealed ukraines fate one way or another https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1486380384699011085?s=20
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Jan 26, 2022 18:07
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Conspiratiorist posted:In any case, like I have said earlier in the thread there's literally no aid NATO can deliver that'd actually change the fighting calculus Maybe they should stop playing into Russian propaganda at this tense moment by delivering it then. 'Ukraine is just the tip of NATO's spear' is obviously an easier argument to make when NATO's sending arms to Ukraine that everyone acknowledges won't actually provide Ukraine with meaningful capabilities to defend itself.
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Jan 26, 2022 18:09
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Sinteres posted:Maybe they should stop playing into Russian propaganda at this tense moment by delivering it then. 'Ukraine is just the tip of NATO's spear' is obviously an easier argument to make when NATO's sending arms to Ukraine that everyone acknowledges won't actually provide Ukraine with meaningful capabilities to defend itself. LOL at the idea that lack of any factual evidence has ever stopped Russia for claiming stuff.
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Jan 26, 2022 18:12
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Al-Saqr posted:I guess this means the moment of truth is here, whatever is in that written response probably sealed ukraines fate one way or another  (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 26, 2022 18:15
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https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1486069001507717126
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Jan 26, 2022 18:24
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Can you paste the contents of this article please? And what's puck.news? I've never even heard of it before.
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Jan 26, 2022 18:29
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Kalit posted:Can you paste the contents of this article please? And what's puck.news? I've never even heard of it before. On Sunday, the British government announced that Moscow was cooking up a plan to topple the government of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and install a pro-Kremlin government in his place. Later that night, the New York Times reported that President Joe Biden was weighing sending thousands of troops to NATO countries in Eastern Europe and the Baltics. An hour or so later, the Washington Post broke a story that the U.S. State Department ordered diplomats’ families and non-essential staff to leave Kyiv, citing the “threat of Russian military action.” By Monday afternoon, the Pentagon announced that it was putting 8,500 troops on alert so that they could be moved into NATO territory in Eastern Europe. It’s been a pretty wild 36 hours, given how tense the situation has been since Russia pooled over 100,000 troops, including materiel and logistical support, along its border with Ukraine, surrounding the country on three sides. More ominously, two weeks of shuttle diplomacy have failed to release any of that tension. Russia could invade at any moment, and it’s hard to see how Vladimir Putin, after calling up such a large force and publicly and angrily making his demands, can back off now without losing a lot of face. This whole thing feels like 100,000 of Anton Chekhov’s guns hanging on 100,000 walls. Once they’re introduced, they have to go off. The very real threat of a full-out land war in Europe for the first time in decades is absolutely terrifying. My first reaction to the news that the Biden administration was considering beefing up NATO’s eastern flank with U.S. troops was, well, Putin got his wish. So much of this conflict has been the West scrambling to react to Putin, who imagines himself encircled by NATO forces ready to pounce and swallow up Ukraine. Now, he’s getting the exact thing he said he didn’t want. One of his demands was that NATO military posture be rolled back to 1997 levels, but now, as a direct result of his actions, NATO is even closer and more bristly than it was before. That’s not necessarily a bad thing for Putin, though. For one thing, it lends credence to his claim that NATO is breathing down his neck—how and why the alliance’s troops got there notwithstanding. It also feeds into and reinforces a historic narrative that Russia is surrounded by enemies on all sides. This fortress mentality, which was particularly strong among the Bolsheviks, is something Russian autocrats can’t seem to live without. It rallies the population around the Kremlin, regardless of who’s in it, and justifies all kinds of extreme measures, both at home and abroad. This isn’t to say that I don’t think that NATO or the Biden administration should send more troops to countries on NATO’s eastern edge. In fact, I think that, given the worry that Putin might want to test NATO states if a campaign in Ukraine goes well, it’s not a bad idea. I do, however, think that everything Putin has feared—Ukraine drifting further toward the West, Ukraine getting more lethal aid from NATO countries, NATO troops massing close to Russia’s borders—is all happening because of what Putin is doing. He is making his paranoid fantasy a reality, and it’s kind of incredible to watch. Another thought: Before the new year, Biden made clear that there would be no American boots on the ground in Ukraine, and NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg reiterated that because Ukraine is not a member of NATO, the country is not entitled to a defense by NATO states should it be attacked by Russia. At the same time, they are defending Ukraine before it has been attacked. In addition to the weapons shipments and the training of Ukrainians for an Iraq-style insurgency should Russia invade, we’re seeing some new strategies deployed. NATO governments are exposing the diversions that the Kremlin is apparently planning, thereby defanging them. Earlier this month, the Biden administration unmasked an alleged Russian plot to send saboteurs to blow up their own fighters in the Donbas in order to create a pretext for Russia to invade Ukraine. Once that plan for a false flag operation is made public, there’s very little the Russian government can do with it. The logic for the British government revealing Russia’s apparent plan to install a friendly government in Kyiv—a fear that’s been batted around national security and foreign policy circles since this crisis began—is much the same. Neither revelation is guaranteed to stop the Kremlin from pursuing either tack, but it certainly strips it of a really important element: plausible deniability. If you recall the invasion of Crimea by “little green men” and of the Donbas by “volunteers on vacation,” plausible deniability is a key Kremlin strategy. Finally, some parting gossip from Washington. As strongly as the Biden administration has been backing Ukraine, the White House as well as its Democratic allies have just about had it with president Zelensky. According to three sources in the administration and on Capitol Hill whom I’ve spoken to in the last couple months, the Ukrainian president is by turns annoying, infuriating, and downright counterproductive. The White House, according to one source, was extremely displeased with Zelensky’s response to Biden’s press conference last week, during which Biden got some flak for suggesting that a “minor incursion” by Russia would be met proportionately. The view among these Democrats is that Biden’s commentary wasn’t wrong—there is a difference between, say, a cyber attack on Ukraine, and a ground invasion, and it’s kind of a no-brainer that there should be a difference in the response. But Zelensky’s decision to publicly criticize the man whose help he most needs—tweeting that “there are no minor incursions and small nations”—was not looked upon kindly by the administration. Last week, Zelensky publicly praised Senator Ted Cruz and called for the passage of the Texas senator’s bill to impose sanctions on the Nord Stream II pipeline. Democrats on the Hill were furious: Cruz has been using that issue to hold up scores of Biden nominees to key posts, including to embassies abroad. Why would Zelensky cheer the man who has been such a massive thorn in the side of the one guy who can send him more lethal aid to fight the Russians? Democrats also didn’t appreciate that, by cheering on Cruz’s bill, Zelensky could box in Germany, which has been quietly cooperating with the Biden administration in waiting to bring the pipeline online. The new German government has also let it be known that it may shut down Nord Stream altogether if Russia invades Ukraine. There’s a sense that Zelensky isn’t very good at navigating American politics and is stepping on all the wrong feet. Perhaps it’s because he is frantically trying to save his own country; perhaps it’s because the former TV star had no preparation for, or education in, geopolitics. It is also, unfortunately, the plight of a country that is caught between two behemoths fighting over its fate. Supplicating while maintaining your dignity is hard enough; doing so while not pissing off your geopolitical backer is harder still.
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Jan 26, 2022 18:35
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Kalit posted:Can you paste the contents of this article please? And what's puck.news? I've never even heard of it before. It’s an American news startup, which poached a handful of decently well known journalists from, e.g., NBC and Politico.
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Jan 26, 2022 18:36
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The growing rift isn't helped by Kyiv's continued insistence that the war scare is fake https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1486291830421565440
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Jan 26, 2022 18:39
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Great, thanks! Nothing really too new/unkown in that article, beyond the few sources that Ioffe talked to. I wonder what was meant by "just about had it with president Zelensky". I'm not surprised that there's tension/frustration between Biden and him though, considering some of that has been public. cinci zoo sniper posted:It’s an American news startup, which poached a handful of decently well known journalists from, e.g., NBC and Politico. Ahh okay, thanks!
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Jan 26, 2022 18:41
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This is the most surreal situation ever it’s like Ukraine is actively undermining the western narrative about russia invading any moment, I have never seen a country keep insisting it is not in danger while it’s backers are shouting wolf
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Jan 26, 2022 18:42
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FishBulbia posted:The growing rift isn't helped by Kyiv's continued insistence that the war scare is fake Al-Saqr posted:This is the most surreal situation ever it’s like Ukraine is actively undermining the western narrative about russia invading any moment, I have never seen a country keep insisting it is not in danger while it’s backers are shouting wolf At a risk of repeating myself, Ukrainian claims are that the currently mobilised Russian force is not ready to conquer and occupy the entirety of Ukraine. They’re very well aware of the danger they’re in, and claim that hybrid warfare against them is already underway, and do acknowledge that the forces in place can inflict tons of more localised damage.
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Jan 26, 2022 18:46
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Al-Saqr posted:This is the most surreal situation ever it’s like Ukraine is actively undermining the western narrative about russia invading any moment, I have never seen a country keep insisting it is not in danger while it’s backers are shouting wolf That part makes sense, the US is undermining a stalemate every time they signal that they either, A: Won't intervene B: Fear an invasion is imminent by getting americans out of harms way
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Jan 26, 2022 18:47
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cinci zoo sniper posted:At a risk of repeating myself, Ukrainian claims are that the currently mobilised Russian force is not ready to conquer and occupy the entirety of Ukraine. They’re very well aware of the danger they’re in, and claim that hybrid warfare against them is already underway, and do acknowledge that the forces in place can inflict tons of more localised damage. You’re right I dig deeper and it turns out Ukraine put out a defense white paper outlying the actual threat you’re talking about
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Jan 26, 2022 18:48
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Tweezer Reprise posted:On Sunday, the British government announced that Moscow was cooking up a plan to topple the government of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and install a pro-Kremlin government in his place. Later that night, the New York Times reported that President Joe Biden was weighing sending thousands of troops to NATO countries in Eastern Europe and the Baltics. An hour or so later, the Washington Post broke a story that the U.S. State Department ordered diplomats’ families and non-essential staff to leave Kyiv, citing the “threat of Russian military action.” By Monday afternoon, the Pentagon announced that it was putting 8,500 troops on alert so that they could be moved into NATO territory in Eastern Europe. why the gently caress is the lede of this news story in the second last paragraph. there's like two paragraphs of actual content. what kind of piece is this
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Jan 26, 2022 18:52
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The Ukrainian government doesn't believe Kyiv itself is in danger (and currently they're most likely right), so pulling foreign diplomat staff/family out does effectively only help sow undue panic.
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Jan 26, 2022 18:53
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QuoProQuid posted:why the gently caress is the lede of this news story in the second last paragraph. A startup that's, apparently, aggregating most material from other sources.
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Jan 26, 2022 18:54
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Sounds like some of Biden's people should recall one of the things Donald Trump got impeached for. It's not for the Ukrainian President to care about US political considerations, and asking him to do so is inappropriate.
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Jan 26, 2022 18:55
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Al-Saqr posted:This is the most surreal situation ever it’s like Ukraine is actively undermining the western narrative about russia invading any moment, I have never seen a country keep insisting it is not in danger while it’s backers are shouting wolf The only way it makes sense is if the US military industrial complex wants this to happen so they can export ATGs and other munitions to Ukraine. But even that angle doesn't quite add up, cause there's a solid chance Russia takes over most of Ukraine's points of entry fairly quickly (within a year) and thus cuts off the trade of money for weapons. I mean I guess Raytheon could be greedy enough to push for a war just so they can dump munitions into it for less than a year, but that doesn't seem like a worthwhile endeavor. If the US was committed to sending in troops this would match their warmongering from the last 30+ years. But they're decidedly not, so that angle doesn't add up either. Which leads me to believe the US actually thinks this is going to happen. I still hope they're wrong for Ukraine's sake, but the concern seems legitimate for once.
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Jan 26, 2022 18:56
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QuoProQuid posted:why the gently caress is the lede of this news story in the second last paragraph. And the actual content is 'A couple of House Democrats are mad that a foreign politician had to make a really mild indirect rebuke to their President when he made a gaffe and that has made life a little more difficult for them'.
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Jan 26, 2022 18:57
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Al-Saqr posted:You’re right I dig deeper and it turns out Ukraine put out a defense white paper outlying the actual threat you’re talking about Yeah, I’ve read that paper, and while I lack the knowledge to fully understand their discussion, it made a lot of sense to me. Edit: Here's the paper in English. https://kyivindependent.com/national/center-for-defense-strategies-how-probable-is-large-scale-war-in-ukraine-analysis/ quote:Many politicians and observers report that a significant escalation of military aggression by Russia is highly probable. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 19:04 on Jan 26, 2022 |
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Jan 26, 2022 18:58
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Broke: logging off your enemy bloggers Woke: logging off your enemy countries https://mobile.twitter.com/naknudsen/status/1486251404746502151
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Jan 26, 2022 19:06
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It's one thing to have a plan in place, and another to expect something to happen next Tuesday. There is an ongoing military conflict in Ukraine, Crimea is still annexed, while Russia exercises its soft power and employs more underhanded techniques to destabilise the situation in the rest of the country. Everyone in Ukraine is aware of that and acts accordingly, as they actively and continuously pursue help from international partners. What they take exception with is how the supposed large scale invasion with dates and everything is presented as an inevitability, as US and Russia seem to discuss the future of Ukraine between themselves. Evacuating US diplomats from Kyiv was a real slap in the face in this situation, as it signals that America doesn't even believe in its own ability to deter the invasion.
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Jan 26, 2022 19:06
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Orthanc6 posted:The only way it makes sense is if the US military industrial complex wants this to happen so they can export ATGs and other munitions to Ukraine. But even that angle doesn't quite add up, cause there's a solid chance Russia takes over most of Ukraine's points of entry fairly quickly (within a year) and thus cuts off the trade of money for weapons. As dangerous as their force buildup is, Russia is incapable of occupying all of Ukraine. What the MIC would be expecting is a small annexation of territory + the destruction of the bulk of Ukraine's current military forces including their entire air force. Even the worst case, Russia gunning for everything East of the Dnieper, leaves a potential client state. In any case, Ukraine isn't actually undermining any narrative of a clear threat, rather they're calling out the West on being hypocrites and not helping properly.
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Jan 26, 2022 19:08
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OddObserver posted:Sounds like some of Biden's people should recall one of the things Donald Trump got impeached for. It's not for the Ukrainian President to care about US political considerations, and asking him to do so is inappropriate. Yes, asking is inappropriate, but for the leader of a country facing imminent invasion not to take into account his personal relationship with the leader of by far the most important country he's begging to help is idiotic. Nobody's saying he should investigate Biden's political adversaries to try to help Biden win elections or anything, but sometimes discretion is a good idea. Imagine asking someone to help you move or something and then criticizing them on social media where they and mutuals would see it for not offering to help in exactly the way you preferred, while still expecting them to go through with helping you.
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Jan 26, 2022 19:11
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Sinteres posted:Yes, asking is inappropriate, but for the leader of a country facing imminent invasion not to take into account his personal relationship with the leader of by far the most important country he's begging to help is idiotic. Nobody's saying he should investigate Biden's political adversaries to try to help Biden win elections or anything. From an Eastern European mindset perspective, and non-American common sense arguably, Zelenskyi has been very timid in his response to two major insults from Biden to the nation of Ukraine. Literally, the barest possible minimum to contain domestic fallout. If you want to see what a grown-up version of this looks like, check out how much poo poo America had to bribe Germany with to get back on talking terms, and by talking terms I mean the entirety of EU political now repeating "multilateralism" every 3 words, after just 4 years of Donald Trump talking poo poo about Europe not in crisis.
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Jan 26, 2022 19:20
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Germany sent helmets to Ukraine. I'm really hoping these are Stahlhelms because the optics will be hilarious
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Jan 26, 2022 19:38
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fwiw cinci zoo sniper is now thread idiot czar
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Jan 26, 2022 20:02
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Wow, seriously gently caress germany. What condescending piece of poo poo
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Jan 26, 2022 20:02
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Fritz the Horse posted:fwiw cinci zoo sniper is now thread idiot czar congrats cinci you may give me a sixer with the worst olivier salad picture you can find
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Jan 26, 2022 20:07
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How are u posted:Do you have source for this assertion? The lng capacity that is coming online is presold/termed up. US is basically asking Qatar or whomever to force majeure their customers (probably Pakistan, Japan and South asia) in order redeliver to Europe. Funny though, big OPEC reporter today claims the talks didn't happen, so even more of a bluff than i thought It's 100% a dumb bluff. Reminder this is same admin that floated idea of banning US crude exports to reduce prices (would be catastrophic bullish). I don't know what Biden admins angle is here except maybe "we did everything we could" but oil price is going to $150/bbl if Russia invades. LNG prices also will skyrocket.
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Jan 26, 2022 20:08
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Gervasius posted:congrats cinci you may give me a sixer with the worst olivier salad picture you can find https://cookpad.com/uk/recipes/15063277-pizza-hut-salad
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Jan 26, 2022 20:10
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Does cinci's new position come with any new thread specific guidelines, or is this more about having someone who posts here regularly to babysit the thread with normal D&D guidelines? Basically, is anything changing other than a new set of eyes?
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Jan 26, 2022 20:14
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Gervasius posted:congrats cinci you may give me a sixer with the worst olivier salad picture you can find 
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Jan 26, 2022 20:19
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Sinteres posted:Does cinci's new position come with any new thread specific guidelines, or is this more about having someone who posts here regularly to babysit the thread with normal D&D guidelines? Basically, is anything changing other than a new set of eyes? Koos Group can clarify if needed but my understanding is the latter. Not any specific changes to thread guidelines or direction, just getting someone who is knowledgeable about the region and this thread to help keep an eye on things. Historically in D&D, regional threads having their own local IKs has worked very well. And if Russia does invade Ukraine, this thread is probably going to get tons of volume.
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Jan 26, 2022 20:22
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Just funnel the invasion through Чоп and they'll never make it out of the train station.
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