(Thread IKs:
fart simpson)
|
Lostconfused posted:Headline https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-in-moscow-war-drums-arent-beating-and-the-public-doesnt-favour/ just the CIA and MI6 mashing two action figures labelled ukraine and russia together going "come on, fight each other already"
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 19:31
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 26, 2024 13:47 |
|
|
Raskolnikov38 posted:just the CIA and MI6 mashing two action figures labelled ukraine and russia together going "come on, fight each other already"  Make them kiss! Make them kiss!
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 19:38
|
|
|
Some Guy TT posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1486536280691265540 lmao, this is 100% a domestic op
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 19:40
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:The issue is when the West can get to the point where it can open up to a fuller extent than China can on a sustainable basis. It hasn’t up to this point. See that argument only make sense if the current virus doesn't evolve to some new poo poo. Frankly this argument is not far from the initial Sweden and UK open them up argument. But it's highly likely that current variants will evolve into 3-4 phrases of new poo poo that can defeat the current batches of vaccines. I expect the new variants will be less severe than Omicron and still deadly enough to deal major impact in everyday lives and business operation.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 19:41
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:The issue is when the West can get to the point where it can open up to a fuller extent than China can on a sustainable basis. It hasn’t up to this point. the West will likely be battered by wave after wave of covid variants as we have seen throughout just the last year alone. there’s no reason to think that won’t continue to happen. omicrom will not be the end. why would you assume it would be in light of how we know the virus evolves? in all likelihood, the west continues to lose its edge as its healthcare system is further hollowed out, it’s education system stops functioning every winter due to covid spikes, people keep dying, people suffer from long covid, and all sorts of other knock on effects.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 19:45
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:The issue is if Omicron has “legs”, it isn’t simply the initial spike but sustained severe cases. That is why the question isn’t now but a month from now. South Africa at least has seem a dramatic decline of cases and deaths are starting to significantly drop. The only point I really wanted to make is that even if corona leaves on vacation next week we'll already have had more disruption this month than China got in a whole year of zero Covid. It's not completely inconceivable that that will change in the future, but it's pure speculation.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 19:47
|
|
|
Why is Eastern Europe referred to as the "eastern flank" by the US. In the context of increased aggression towards Russia and China, Europe is the western edge. Is Psaki going to call Korea and Japan the "farther east flank."
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 19:52
|
|
|
stephenthinkpad posted:See that argument only make sense if the current virus doesn't evolve to some new poo poo. Frankly this argument is not far from the initial Sweden and UK open them up argument. But it's highly likely that current variants will evolve into 3-4 phrases of new poo poo that can defeat the current batches of vaccines. I expect the new variants will be less severe than Omicron and still deadly enough to deal major impact in everyday lives and business operation. No, Sweden and the UK weee opening up without a population with no antibodies or vaccine. The question is what “defeat” means, do they lose some or all effectiveness? I think that is the bone of contention here. genericnick posted:The only point I really wanted to make is that even if corona leaves on vacation next week we'll already have had more disruption this month than China got in a whole year of zero Covid. It's not completely inconceivable that that will change in the future, but it's pure speculation. That is absolutely true with Omicron and other variants, but the question is if there really is absolutely no curve here.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 19:54
|
|
|
Atrocious Joe posted:Why is Eastern Europe referred to as the "eastern flank" by the US. In the context of increased aggression towards Russia and China, Europe is the western edge. Is Psaki going to call Korea and Japan the "farther east flank." "Every country not run by white liberals is an enemy waiting to attack" seems like the natural reasoning
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 19:55
|
|
|
It would be the Far East, yeah.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 19:58
|
|
|
Atrocious Joe posted:Why is Eastern Europe referred to as the "eastern flank" by the US. In the context of increased aggression towards Russia and China, Europe is the western edge. Is Psaki going to call Korea and Japan the "farther east flank." This orientation makes perfect sense in the context of the finno-korean hyperwar.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 19:58
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:No, Sweden and the UK weee opening up without a population with no antibodies or vaccine. The current Western strategy seems to be that a 9/11 per day (vaccines and boosters notwithstanding) and an ongoing clusterfuck in the labor market is fine as long as the owning class gets to stay in charge and I'm not sure why China would consider any of those to be good reasons to change what they're doing. "Full normalcy" at the cost of that mass death and disruption is purely illusory. And that doesn't even consider the emerging long term mass disability that COVID is causing in the working age population.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 20:12
|
|
|
Lostconfused posted:Headline https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-in-moscow-war-drums-arent-beating-and-the-public-doesnt-favour/ how undemocratic of russia to consider not going to war just because the voters oppose going to war
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 20:24
|
|
|
The Oldest Man posted:The current Western strategy seems to be that a 9/11 per day (vaccines and boosters notwithstanding) and an ongoing clusterfuck in the labor market is fine as long as the owning class gets to stay in charge and I'm not sure why China would consider any of those to be good reasons to change what they're doing. "Full normalcy" at the cost of that mass death and disruption is purely illusory. The question isn’t now but in the future, if indeed there is any change of severity of the disease or if indeed immunity completely resets with every variant.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 20:26
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:
Though, after thinking about it, I go for never. Suppose you actually get the Omicron variant we all know from TV, billion of cases, but no one dies. Would you trust it to stay that way after years of producing one exceedingly troublesome variant after the other? Lifting restrictions when it turns out to not have been justified is easily ten times more expensive than just keeping them going. I also wonder if the travel restrictions don't help the CPC keep political stability. Easier to keep an eye on what your Bourgeoisie is doing if they don't fly over to Paris every second weekend.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 20:40
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:The question isn’t now but in the future, if indeed there is any change of severity of the disease or if indeed immunity completely resets with every variant. it doesn’t even need to reset with every variant. all it has to do is wane in six months, which is what we know it does. you’ll constantly have reservoirs of people gaining and losing immunity such that the cycle is constantly going. everyone who had omi this last month will be ready to catch it this time next year. of course, odds are we have an even more vaccine immune variant by then (because the vaccine only strategy puts evolutionary pressure on causing this)
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 20:44
|
|
|
Youse just had to loving talk about covid didn't youse. It's not loving going anywhere, things will continue to get worse before it gets better and the longer the "covid era" lasts the worse the loving enormous economic crash at the end of it will be. Pandemics usually take around 4 or 5 years to "pass". The massive populations where covid is fully endemic, and yet still spreading due to non-sterilising vaccines provide an enormous breeding ground for variants to continue to spread. The longer it goes on the longer we continue to roll dice on how the virus mutates and what kind of characteristics it takes on. I'm expecting another major variant before the middle of the year and we'll still be shrugging our shoulders about it complaining about not being able to go to restaurants. Anyway trump 2024
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 20:44
|
|
|
it rules how the biden covid policy is identical to the trump one except that since trump never actually had the vaccines he can claim entirely correctly that biden hosed up the rollout and that he would have done a better job even if in actuality trump would have done it the exact same way
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 21:00
|
|
|
This article is straight trash. The only thing it gets right is the differences between Taiwan and Ukraine. Like, how is America focusing more resources on the Indo-Pacific and away from eastern Europe actually going to counter China? It already admits that Chinese policy is multi-faceted and not based purely on military strength like Russia's. For America to counteract Chinese soft power, putting a couple more carrier groups out there isn't going to cut it. We'll never be able to totally buy out Chinese influence in Taiwan like we could when China was still one of the poorest countries in the world. It does shed light on how natsec thinkers are starting to accept that America is no longer a hyperpower though.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 21:01
|
|
|
nigel thornberry posted:it doesn’t even need to reset with every variant. all it has to do is wane in six months, which is what we know it does. you’ll constantly have reservoirs of people gaining and losing immunity such that the cycle is constantly going. everyone who had omi this last month will be ready to catch it this time next year. of course, odds are we have an even more vaccine immune variant by then (because the vaccine only strategy puts evolutionary pressure on causing this) I am not talking about sterilizing immunity, it isn’t going to happen, but if symptoms will actually not be mitigated in the long term. genericnick posted:Though, after thinking about it, I go for never. Suppose you actually get the Omicron variant we all know from TV, billion of cases, but no one dies. Would you trust it to stay that way after years of producing one exceedingly troublesome variant after the other? Lifting restrictions when it turns out to not have been justified is easily ten times more expensive than just keeping them going. There is always the potential for mutation, the issue is if the mutation will always outpace both the human body and science to the degree that there is no movement. Southpaugh posted:Youse just had to loving talk about covid didn't youse. It is actually worth talking, also as I said 1-2 years from now, not today so 3-4 years. The question become again if there is no movement in the face of variants during that time. Obviously, some people don’t think so, but I am not skeptical considering how Omicron went though South Africa.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 21:02
|
|
|
its also worth remembering that by banning trump from social media over january sixth the libs literally made it impossible for him to assist with the vaccine rollout the result being that to this day chuds and libs alike believe trump is antivaxx something which he can easily disprove and also once again correctly blame on fake news
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 21:04
|
|
|
Atrocious Joe posted:Why is Eastern Europe referred to as the "eastern flank" by the US. In the context of increased aggression towards Russia and China, Europe is the western edge. Is Psaki going to call Korea and Japan the "farther east flank." It's a literal form of Atlanticist thinking. Europe is the "east flank" of American empire, while Asia is the "west flank."
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 21:06
|
|
|
Yeah in a hypothetical future scenario in which the western world beats covid via the current strategy of sending wave after wave of people to die or be disabled by it while praying the virus runs out of mutation headroomb or that we can keep the economy running when a quarter of the labor force is out sick every eight months, China will have some tough choices to make. Or they'll just deploy the hypothetical 2025 omnivax, skipping the millions of dead and disabled citizens, and then move on with their lives.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 21:12
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:I am not talking about sterilizing immunity, it isn’t going to happen, but if symptoms will actually not be mitigated in the long term. Yeah but this thread is good, Covid, just like in real life is endemic on the forums.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 21:16
|
|
|
I don't mean to contribute too much to the covid derail, but I was watching the local news and they ran a story about some researchers discovering that Covid has a slower mutation rate than HIV. They were trying to present this as good news, and when they talked to the head researcher he was doing his best not to make it sound like things are going to be over soon. He was just like, "well it is good news in the sense that the mutation rate could be higher." the unsaid part being that coronavirus has way bigger penetration through the population than HIV-AIDS did.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 21:17
|
|
|
If there's a real threat to China from Covid it's probably that all the supply chain logistics between China and their international markets are turbo hosed which makes onshoring more attractive than it has been for decades. But then you have to balance avoiding being turbo hosed at the port of LA because everyone was sick and the port is backlogged against being turbo hosed at your factory in Ohio because everyone is out sick and the factory had to go on reduced shifts.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 21:19
|
|
|
So maybe this is an obvious question but if the ports on the west coast are so backlogged, can they not go unload at Baltimore or something? Or those ships can't fit through the panama canal?
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 21:23
|
|
|
Throatwarbler posted:So maybe this is an obvious question but if the ports on the west coast are so backlogged, can they not go unload at Baltimore or something? Or those ships can't fit through the panama canal? that adds on like 2 weeks to the trip, might as well wait.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 21:24
|
|
|
Southpaugh posted:Yeah but this thread is good, Covid, just like in real life is endemic on the forums. Well, the discussion is particularly on the issue of China opening up. Admittedly, I am taking the point of view that economic growth is leverage and if the West could gain leverage (even in a relative sense), it wouldn’t be a good thing. Obviously, China is doing the right thing but if the West, even several waves, could get to the point it can stomach new variants without as much economic damage then China may have to open in a phased manner with boosters. So it is about COVID but also power relations.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 21:25
|
|
|
GlassEye-Boy posted:that adds on like 2 weeks to the trip, might as well wait. plus fuel plus transit fees
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 21:26
|
|
|
Baltimore would also be processing its own freight coming from the Atlantic, so you're just shifting the overcapacity around.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 21:28
|
|
|
Throatwarbler posted:So maybe this is an obvious question but if the ports on the west coast are so backlogged, can they not go unload at Baltimore or something? Or those ships can't fit through the panama canal? A lot of them can't, yeah. And then you have to negotiate new agreements with the new destination port if you have never unloaded there. And then you have the issue of all your poo poo being in the wrong side of the country and having to get new transport back to the right side and honestly who wants all that headache. Just say it's hard and then give up, that's what we're good at E: actually a major part of this and also the covid response in general is people in decision-making capacities just assuming based on what the government is telling them that this is all going to fix itself in another Friedman Unit so why would you spend precious capital trying to do anything? Just sit tight and it'll all go away. Now. Nnnnnow. Aaand now. The Oldest Man has issued a correction as of 21:31 on Jan 27, 2022 |
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 21:28
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:Obviously, China is doing the right thing but if the West, even several waves, could get to the point it can stomach new variants without as much economic damage then China may have to open in a phased manner with boosters. That’s a  with nothing at all suggesting it might happen in such a way so far, to my knowledge.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 21:36
|
|
|
I feel like I should re-read Pygmy. that book is wild
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 21:44
|
|
|
Mearsheimer has been discussed in the thread before. I still think he's pretty good at reading the tea leaves discarded by the US state even if offensive realism is fallible.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 22:01
|
|
|
Love how mild omicron is, such a mild variant.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 22:53
|
|
|
mearsheimer's "yeah we're doing this for power politics and imperial domination reasons not any freedom and liberty bullshit" is semi refreshing
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 22:54
|
|
|
30.5 Days posted:Love how mild omicron is, such a mild variant. The whole new "it's just a flu!" is way too convenient to open Biden. Fewer deaths could easily be contributed to vaccination rates. Anyone have any studies about reduced lethality with omicron?
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 23:09
|
|
|
30.5 Days posted:Love how mild omicron is, such a mild variant. I had a feeling we'd arrive here. Even if Omicron is milder, it's spreading multiple times faster and farther than previous strains. So it's making up for the lower mortality rate in absolute numbers.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 23:25
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 26, 2024 13:47 |
|
|
IIRC by all accounts it's less lethal, it just makes up for it by being *checks notes* the most infectious virus in history? That can't be good.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 23:27
|
|
