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was it ever realistic for Russia to expect to join NATO as an equal partner with the US rather than as a de facto subordinate partner on the level of the UK, France, or Germany (the "big three", never mind the smaller European nations) in this relationship it always had to be accepted that American politicians would be allowed to accede to American popular demands to intervene in the domestic politics of its European partners - just ask the UK how it felt about vigorous Irish American sponsorship in Northern Ireland over the decades. "Sovereign interests" are not sacrosanct in this alliance. The American side always reserves the right to back secessionist or separatist or autonomist or dissident movements in one's territory for whatever capricious, arbitrary, self-destructive, self-serving, or hypocritical reasons from one's perspective, and that's just the price of doing business - American politicians are not capable of binding future generations of American politicians to not use their power in this regard in the late 1990s, in particular, when one is in the depths of a brutal recession and has to go hat-in-hand to the West for economic aid - perhaps that is not the time to insist that the West back one's sacrosanct clientelism. There are precedents there - de Gaulle famously flounced out of NATO because the Americans did not want to protect French Algeria for France just so that the Americans could maintain its increasingly strained hope for a pro-American Arab world - but of course France did not then decide to revive its previous Arab world policy. There was no second Suez Crisis. France gave up Algeria anyway, a part which it once declared integral and inseparable. Conversely Russia has decided that it actually prioritizes its interests over pursuing a Westernizing direction, so. ronya fucked around with this message at 10:00 on Jan 28, 2022 |
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Jan 28, 2022 07:50
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I am reminded of Robert McNamara saying how he almost got into a fight with the former foreign minister(iirc) of Vietnam over the reasons for the Vietnam war. McNamara was saying how it was another battleground in the Cold War against Communism while the foreign minister stated that it was another war for the Vietnamese people against outside oppressors. I feel like when I read posts like this that you can see the forest but not the trees. Russia does have legitimate security concerns like any other nation state but so do other states like Ukraine. Unfortunately for Russia it is not the center of the Soviet Union anymore and it will have readjust to the new reality on the ground. If a country like Ukraine decides it is in its national interest to do business with a larger, less corrupt and wealthier market it should be able to do so. If a country like Ukraine decides its security could be improved by forming partnerships with countries it hasn't had the choice to join before, then why should an outside power stop it? Russian leadership will have to realise they suck and unless there is a paradigm shift in how they treat countries in their "sphere of influence" they will continue to find that these countries will escape their orbit. This is also happening in central Asia with China.
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Jan 28, 2022 08:12
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Budzilla posted:If a country like Ukraine decides its security could be improved by forming partnerships with countries it hasn't had the choice to join before, then why should an outside power stop it? Doesn't country realize doing X is morally wrong???!??!?
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Jan 28, 2022 08:36
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Regardless. Ukraine isn't going into NATO so it doesn't actually have any real choice here, just as before. Allies have been clear. Ukrainian NATO membership harms the security of the bloc. Ally security will always take preference over neutral third parties.
FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 08:46 on Jan 28, 2022 |
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Jan 28, 2022 08:40
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 Big brained analyst in 1938: we need to look at what the Germans feel: Germany was treated unfairly by the Entente, the Versailles treaty was too cruel, they got stabbed in the back by the dastardly Jews/Bolsheviks and their rightful great power sphere of influence got taken away in Africa and the Pacific. They feel threatened and we must give them security guarantees. Czechoslovakia is full of Germans and of what use is it to us anyway? Are we really going to send our boys to die for some Slavic dipshits? I heard they're full of nazis too. And they're in the sphere of influence. ===== Definitely can't wait for the conflict to resolve so we get less Americans posting here Somaen fucked around with this message at 09:15 on Jan 28, 2022 |
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Jan 28, 2022 09:13
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Somaen posted:
Putin isn't Hitler. At the same time  FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 09:29 on Jan 28, 2022 |
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Jan 28, 2022 09:25
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FishBulbia posted:Putin isn't Hitler. He is not. But he is too a militarist nationalist with unhinged historical grievances and constant hurt feelings, same as all other nationalists. We don't have to credulously rehash them and nudge the conversation towards accepting them as if that will resolve the conflict and bring peace. The actual solution is to force the nationalists to get over it by operating in the material reality of the current situation and not on the basis of historical phantom pains Somaen fucked around with this message at 10:18 on Jan 28, 2022 |
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Jan 28, 2022 09:49
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hot take: putin is the ultimate radical centrist. being part of any
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Jan 28, 2022 10:02
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MikeC posted:IIt is also instructive to remember that Vladimir Putin is entering his third decade as the primary political leader in Russia whereas administrations in the West have come and gone since then and it appears that our leaders, and we along with them, have forgotten things that have happened that Putin clearly still remembers. You can be sure that Russia's neighbors have not forgotten things that you have, or at least consider not worth mentioning in your multi-paragraph post, such as two wars in Chechnya and Russian conduct there, or how the Second Chechen War started. You may think that it's 'moralistic' to not consider a murderous KGB gangster trustworthy, but Putin being Putin has a lot to do with how Russia is seen and treated by its neighbors and Western countries. Telling him he can shove his polonium and novichok up his own rear end would be undiplomatic, but no one will ever consider Russia as a good faith negotiating partner as long as Putin remains in power.
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Jan 28, 2022 11:07
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Unfortunately, giving Putin any concessions to what he wants on the major issues would reinforce the notion that 19c power politics, invasions, brutality, etc are how to get things done, and should be avoided if at all possible. His 'security concerns' should be disregarded, as it would lead to others considering invading their neighbors and making more land grabs to assuage their 'security concerns'. In the pure power politics sense, why shouldn't the US do everything it can to keep Russia contained and weak? Get away from moralism. If we're ignoring moralism and just going for pure power games, there's nothing Russia really has to offer the US as an ally. Panzeh fucked around with this message at 11:39 on Jan 28, 2022 |
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Jan 28, 2022 11:37
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I think it is also worth noting that all through the 90's and 00's Russia never stopped its campaign of Active Measures against its neighbours. Disinformation, subversion, the odd murder of a Russian ex-pat who had sufficiently annoyed the authorities. The fact that Russia's conventional military was not a substantial threat in this period does not mean that Russia was not an awful neighbour in this period, and membership of NATO gave countries access to a range of capabilties to help push back against this activity.
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Jan 28, 2022 11:44
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Hannibal Rex posted:You may think that it's 'moralistic' to not consider a murderous KGB gangster trustworthy, but Putin being Putin has a lot to do with how Russia is seen and treated by its neighbors and Western countries. Telling him he can shove his polonium and novichok up his own rear end would be undiplomatic, but no one will ever consider Russia as a good faith negotiating partner as long as Putin remains in power. But have you considered that Putin's far right fascism is actually due to economic anxiety and is actually the west's fault? Let me explain in 20 paragraphs how he had some legitimate security concerns regarding the information Litvinenko and Politkovskaya were spreading and furthemore from a neorealist realpolitik perspective it made sense to off them
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Jan 28, 2022 12:26
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Lukashenko's doing his best stand-up set in years. Thousands of immigrants mowed down by Polish border guards, controlled pandemic, Google and Microsoft ordering local computer touchers to destroy Belarus, all the best and improved routines in one show. The name of the special is a bit long, though. It's called Alexander Lukashenko's address to the National Assembly.
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Jan 28, 2022 12:27
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Paladinus posted:Lukashenko's doing his best stand-up set in years. Thousands of immigrants mowed down by Polish border guards, controlled pandemic, Google and Microsoft ordering local computer touchers to destroy Belarus, all the best and improved routines in one show. The name of the special is a bit long, though. It's called Alexander Lukashenko's address to the National Assembly. Wait, what’s the official “line” about the railway hack by political activists? Google and Microsoft declaring cyberwar against Belarus? Even for Bat’ka that seems to be a bit too dramatic.
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Jan 28, 2022 12:33
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Wait, what’s the official “line” about the railway hack by political activists? Google and Microsoft declaring cyberwar against Belarus? Even for Bat’ka that seems to be a bit too dramatic. The official line is there was no hack. The fact that you can't buy tickets online for a week now is just minor technical difficulties. In general, the official line on all hacks, especially the big leak of all phone recordings, was to pretend it didn't happen. Google and Microsoft ordered IT specialists to incite riots in 2020. Because they are the ones paying them, you see. For their IT work.
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Jan 28, 2022 12:36
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Wait, what’s the official “line” about the railway hack by political activists? Google and Microsoft declaring cyberwar against Belarus? Even for Bat’ka that seems to be a bit too dramatic. nothing is ever too dramatic or out there for Bat'ka lol, he's honed his brand of performance art to perfection over the years Paladinus posted:Google and Microsoft ordered IT specialists to incite riots in 2020. Because they are the ones paying them, you see. For their IT work. from what i'm hearing, no one has done more for the growth of Lithuania's IT sector than Bat'ka
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Jan 28, 2022 12:37
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Paladinus posted:The official line is there was no hack. The fact that you can't buy tickets online for a week now is just minor technical difficulties. In general, the official line on all hacks, especially the big leak of all phone recordings, was to pretend it didn't happen. Ah, I see. Have they tried inserting activated coal into the CD-ROM?
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Jan 28, 2022 12:41
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FishBulbia posted:Doesn't country realize doing X is morally wrong???!??!? Please avoid low-content or white-noise posting. Thanks.
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Jan 28, 2022 12:49
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https://twitter.com/mic_marek/status/1486613411618299909?s=20&t=_rBs-NQOWTvkfvL44bw0Jg Russian press are onto a ploy, wherein tactical plans are revelead *checks notes*... on a commemorative coin? In the height of the border crisis, in order to drum up patriotism, the Polish mint released a border forces coin. Apparently it's symbolic that the chopper is shown hovering over Kaliningrad, and is a clear sign the Poles are planning to invade. Mokotow fucked around with this message at 15:28 on Jan 28, 2022 |
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Jan 28, 2022 14:04
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Why is there such a noticeable disconnect between the threat level that Ukraine sees vs most of NATO?
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Jan 28, 2022 14:23
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Ah, I see. Have they tried inserting activated coal into the CD-ROM? New thread title right here
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Jan 28, 2022 14:28
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Fritz the Horse posted:Please avoid low-content or white-noise posting. Thanks. While we're at it, can we please get rid of poo poo like this?: Somaen posted:Definitely can't wait for the conflict to resolve so we get less Americans posting here
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Jan 28, 2022 14:32
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Willo567 posted:Why is there such a noticeable disconnect between the threat level that Ukraine sees vs most of NATO? 1. There isn't really. Look at what governments are saying officially rather than what officials are saying to publications. Everyone is on the same page, which is that Russia has amassed a massive force on Ukraine's border that is probably now ready to start combat operations at around two weeks notice. Obviously when speaking to their own public the Ukrainian government has more of an interest in emphasising 'the Reds are not coming over the border tomorrow, please don't panic and flee for the hills'. 2. Ukraine might be closer to Russia, but that just means they only see what they can see from the border. It's not like they're seeing any of the satellite imagery or signals collection that NATO is doing, or whatever straight up espionage sources the CIA has other than what is being shared with them.
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Jan 28, 2022 14:33
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Willo567 posted:Why is there such a noticeable disconnect between the threat level that Ukraine sees vs most of NATO? Imho: For the NATO buildup they are accountable to the population and have to convince the voters/legislators that the Russians are definitely invading to have the momentum to send weapons and money to Ukraine. "The Russians are testing us and if we build up and deter them they'll back down and nothing will happen" isn't a great motivator Ukraine doesn't want its population to panic and crash the economy before anything even happens quote:While we're at it, can we please get rid of poo poo like this?: Dunking on Americans, especially those that found out about EE now and who will leave to become middle East or Asia experts when something starts burning there, is a part of EE culture and a tradition. Somaen fucked around with this message at 15:13 on Jan 28, 2022 |
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Jan 28, 2022 14:33
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Willo567 posted:Why is there such a noticeable disconnect between the threat level that Ukraine sees vs most of NATO? The “disconnect” is mostly in semantics. Ukraine sees the threat of armed conflict perfectly well, they’re disputing that their entire landmass can be occupied literally in the next day or two, which is literally the only thing West talks about in public. Threats Ukrainians have been talking about for at least a month are sabotage attacks on critical infrastructure and targeted military pushes, like Kyiv siege or Crimea land bridge scenario.
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Jan 28, 2022 14:36
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https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-sergey-lavrov-wants-clarifications-from-western-powers-nato-ukraine/quote:Despite the clamor of warnings about war, the diplomatic dialogue between Moscow and the West is set to continue — for the time being, at least — after Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Friday he would send a letter to Western counterparts seeking clarification on a key security question of interest to the Kremlin.
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Jan 28, 2022 14:56
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Pavel Rotmistrov posted:I mean Edit: Fritz the Horse posted:Please avoid low-content or white-noise posting. Thanks. Maybe still too low-content, but I wanted to point out that anti-tank ditches are a thing, and discounting whatever fortifications the Ukrainian army has prepared out of hand is a little disingenuous. Hannibal Rex fucked around with this message at 15:34 on Jan 28, 2022 |
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Jan 28, 2022 15:30
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Paladinus posted:Lukashenko's doing his best stand-up set in years. Thousands of immigrants mowed down by Polish border guards, controlled pandemic, Google and Microsoft ordering local computer touchers to destroy Belarus, all the best and improved routines in one show. The name of the special is a bit long, though. It's called Alexander Lukashenko's address to the National Assembly. Correction: he said hundreds of thouthands immigrants killed by Poland in the woods
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Jan 28, 2022 15:35
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ronya posted:was it ever realistic for Russia to expect to join NATO as an equal partner with the US rather than as a de facto subordinate partner on the level of the UK, France, or Germany (the "big three", never mind the smaller European nations) Going back and reading what the Russians and even some American politicians were saying, I think there was clearly the expectation of a new political arrangement in which the Russians would partake in. I also don't think that they expected to be treated as an equal to the US. I mean you don't ask to join institutions that belong to the other guy if you see yourself as a peer competitor. But I very much get the impression reading what I have from sources back then as well as articles before the hard shift in 2002 that they expected that they would be treated like partners of the stature of the UK and the like. Instead what they got was total abandonment and got slapped in the face during the Kosovo situation and the subsequent unilateral ABM pullout. You are right about the hat in hand business but the outright rejection of any serious integration of Russia probably had the Russians taken aback. Budzilla posted:I am reminded of Robert McNamara saying how he almost got into a fight with the former foreign minister(iirc) of Vietnam over the reasons for the Vietnam war. McNamara was saying how it was another battleground in the Cold War against Communism while the foreign minister stated that it was another war for the Vietnamese people against outside oppressors. I feel like when I read posts like this that you can see the forest but not the trees. Russia does have legitimate security concerns like any other nation state but so do other states like Ukraine. Unfortunately for Russia it is not the center of the Soviet Union anymore and it will have readjust to the new reality on the ground. If a country like Ukraine decides it is in its national interest to do business with a larger, less corrupt and wealthier market it should be able to do so. If a country like Ukraine decides its security could be improved by forming partnerships with countries it hasn't had the choice to join before, then why should an outside power stop it? Russian leadership will have to realise they suck and unless there is a paradigm shift in how they treat countries in their "sphere of influence" they will continue to find that these countries will escape their orbit. This is also happening in central Asia with China. The parallels did strike me as similar incident as well. I think the Russians have adapted to the new reality alreqdy though. Unlike China, Putin has no great power designs. All of its disruptive actions have so far been in the border zones of 'the Near Abroad'. One can argue that this is due to power protection limitations but so far given no indication that it intends to return to the global stage like the Chinese have done. It does however see itself as a regional power and if it cannot get entry into key institutions from which to protect its interests, then they will go about it the old fashion way. If it cant talk in a meaningful way, then it means destabilizing the American and NATO designs through brinksmanship and exposing then driving wedges between NATO members like we have seen as well as destabilizing the internal politics of NATO members to keep their energies focused inwards rather than outwards It is unrealistic to see or expect Russian behavior to change in the near term until its security demands are dealt with in a substantive fashion. For example, one of the the demands made by the Russians is no brigade level or higher exercises inside some buffer zone yet to be determined. It is holding 'excercises' of its own precisely to demonstrate how annoying it is to have military units of an alliance that has you on its hitlist randomly massing on your borders without consultation. That's how the Russians see it at least. That's really the crux of my post. To present the Russian viewpoint from a historical basis over the past 30 years. Ofcourse people don't actually read and assume I am defending Hitler in 1938 or something.
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Jan 28, 2022 15:40
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MikeC posted:It is unrealistic to see or expect Russian behavior to change in the near term until its security demands are dealt with in a substantive fashion. Ukraine was a neutral country set in its constitution that it won't join NATO, then the Maidan happened for closer integration with the EU and Russia invaded the country annexing territory and killing thousands in a conflict it keeps fuelling Security guarantees are a thinly veiled sham to get western countries to agree to a status quo that will let it decide the politics of the countries around. We don't have to give in to the demands of a senile gnome, each year Russia gets weaker as the European economies find new sources of energy and use less oil and gas. Russia is at the peak of its influence which is why Putin is aggressively trying to score a win and get a written deal dividing up the area into spheres of influence. quote:That's really the crux of my post. To present the Russian viewpoint from a historical basis over the past 30 years. Ofcourse people don't actually read and assume I am defending Hitler in 1938 or something. Nah, what I'm implying is that if it was 1938 that's exactly what you would be doing - credulously explaining the grievances of the nutcase holding everyone around hostage while steadily ignoring his actions or the viewpoint of any other actor involved Somaen fucked around with this message at 16:05 on Jan 28, 2022 |
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Jan 28, 2022 16:02
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MikeC posted:Going back and reading what the Russians and even some American politicians were saying, I think there was clearly the expectation of a new political arrangement in which the Russians would partake in. I also don't think that they expected to be treated as an equal to the US. I mean you don't ask to join institutions that belong to the other guy if you see yourself as a peer competitor. But I very much get the impression reading what I have from sources back then as well as articles before the hard shift in 2002 that they expected that they would be treated like partners of the stature of the UK and the like. Instead what they got was total abandonment and got slapped in the face during the Kosovo situation and the subsequent unilateral ABM pullout. You are right about the hat in hand business but the outright rejection of any serious integration of Russia probably had the Russians taken aback. that was the PFP, as you pointed out, which Russia did indeed participate in I fully agree that Russia got sharply snubbed regarding Serbia but my point, likewise, is that being partners of the stature of the UK entails being a partner where e.g. the Americans get to expect that US special envoys get to be invited to arbitrate your domestic peace processes, and this being its reward for a decade where the UK is intensely aligning itself with American priorities elsewhere in the world. And that was in 1995, we're not talking Suez Crisis decades ago. From your description it seems that Russia did expect something better than this - something like the OSCE framework, where it was once a Helsinki equal - despite no longer having a Warsaw Pact and actually requiring even more assistance with the 1998 financial crisis you're not overstating the degree to which Russia got snubbed but rather understating the degree to which America patronizes even its closest allies on the regular ronya fucked around with this message at 16:24 on Jan 28, 2022 |
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Jan 28, 2022 16:07
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https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1487086483123040258
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Jan 28, 2022 16:56
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 Should this be pork, veal, chicken or turkey? Would you throw a fried egg on it? How about yellow cheese? Mushrooms? What side would go best with it?
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Jan 28, 2022 16:57
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Eastern Europe: Zelensky, a true comedian
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Jan 28, 2022 17:00
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Eastern Europe: But doctor, I am Volodymyr ZelenskyMokotow posted:
Potato, with mayonnaise, not too yellow, absolutely with gravy, apple cheese.
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Jan 28, 2022 17:00
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Mokotow posted:
Chicken, with mushroom and sourcream sauce. plus potato wedges fried in pork fat with sliced onions (boiled first, then cut into wedges and fried) cabbage salad and marinated vegetables as another side. no cheese, no eggs.
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Jan 28, 2022 17:03
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Mokotow posted:
This should be pork or chicken. I would throw an omelette on it. Some neutral cheese (e.g. Parmigiano-Reggiano if it’s chicken, “Russian cheese” if it’s pork), but if yellow cheese means like cheddar or Velveeta then hell no. Mushrooms feel a bit excessive here - maybe a chopped chanterelle or two in the omelette? Omelette, to speak of, would be my side, alternatively oven baked potatoes with skin, but then the egg should be tossed, and we can go aggro with cheese instead. Also, you were just the goon I was looking for. Can you tl;dr me current stage of the PiS spyware drama and your parliamentary inquest?
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Jan 28, 2022 17:03
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Mokotow posted:Should this be pork, veal, chicken or turkey? yes
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Jan 28, 2022 17:04
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Somaen posted:Imho: For the NATO buildup they are accountable to the population and have to convince the voters/legislators that the Russians are definitely invading to have the momentum to send weapons and money to Ukraine. "The Russians are testing us and if we build up and deter them they'll back down and nothing will happen" isn't a great motivator Lets just ignore why those fires started and not put any more thought why Americans might be concerned.
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Jan 28, 2022 17:05
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Grouchio posted:Eastern Europe: Zelensky, a true comedian He’s not wrong, maintaining morale both within the troops and the general public is crucial in the coming weeks. It’s a bit easier done if Americans, often perceived as the smart country due to their coffers, will tone the dial down on screaming “you’re about to die” at Ukrainians every day. And this is less of a dig at Biden having a senior moment on the microphone, but more about the general state of mainstream English language reporting on the situation, I guess.
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Jan 28, 2022 17:07
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