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Somaen posted:Can you stop double posting?
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Jan 29, 2022 13:06
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Budzilla posted:Can you at least post some context for us mono-lingual morons on an English speaking forum? I mean, I get the gist of it but the twitter comments aren't too helpful. A Crimean political activist is shown welcoming and promoting the occupation in 2014, and then now bemoaning to the tune of “we gave you Crimea, yet you treat us like dogs”.
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Jan 29, 2022 13:09
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cinci zoo sniper posted:A Crimean political activist is shown welcoming and promoting the occupation in 2014, and then now bemoaning to the tune of “we gave you Crimea, yet you treat us like dogs”. I guessed it was buyer's remorse about Crimea but I couldn't be sure.
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Jan 29, 2022 13:16
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Oracle posted:They won’t stomp all over Xi’s Olympic parade. Two weeks.
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Jan 29, 2022 13:25
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anilEhilated posted:They did literally that with Georgia in 2008.
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Jan 29, 2022 14:00
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I did hear some commentary on how China kinda wants to downplay their own Olympics a bit because welcoming in 10,000 foreigners kinda flies in the face of their ultra-strict zero Covid policy. Maybe Xi wouldn’t mind a distraction?
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Jan 29, 2022 14:44
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Jan 29, 2022 14:44
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Who wants to place a bet that america will replace zelensky with someone more open to shrieking and hollering and will probably do something sakashvili-level stupid so they can get their war
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Jan 29, 2022 17:16
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"Their war"?
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Jan 29, 2022 17:19
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Conspiratiorist posted:"Their war"? I mean in the sense that Americas goal is to have an excuse to scuttle Nord Stream 2 and kick Russia out of the European economy permanently through banning Swift and sanctioning ever Russian anything. The way I’m currently seeing it is that Ukraine understands that the issue they’re facing is systemic and long term and don’t want to shriek to the tune that america wants. Which is counterproductive if your goal is to get russia to make the first move and get their economy destroyed
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Jan 29, 2022 17:23
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Man I only wish America had the kind of 5th order puppetstrings control of the world that you assume it does.
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Jan 29, 2022 17:27
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Al-Saqr posted:I mean in the sense that Americas goal is to have an excuse to scuttle Nord Stream 2 and kick Russia out of the European economy permanently through banning Swift and sanctioning ever Russian anything. The way I’m currently seeing it is that Ukraine understands that the issue they’re facing is systemic and long term and don’t want to shriek to the tune that america wants. Which is counterproductive if your goal is to get russia to make the first move and get their economy destroyed Uhh, if America wanted to ban Nord Stream 2 Joe Biden won't be blocking Congressional attempts to do it.
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Jan 29, 2022 17:27
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That just shows how good he is at 6d chess and pupetting everyone in the world.
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Jan 29, 2022 17:29
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Staff airlifting has begun with Russian National Guard Spetsnaz. https://mobile.twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1487343970070011904 US Embassy sending American citizens land routes out. https://mobile.twitter.com/nolanwpeterson/status/1487256710993649665
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Jan 29, 2022 17:41
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Conspiratiorist posted:US Embassy sending American citizens land routes out. US Embassy recommends installing Viber and asking a friend for a cross border driver's number.
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Jan 29, 2022 17:48
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Al-Saqr posted:I mean in the sense that Americas goal is to have an excuse to scuttle Nord Stream 2 and kick Russia out of the European economy permanently through banning Swift and sanctioning ever Russian anything. The way I’m currently seeing it is that Ukraine understands that the issue they’re facing is systemic and long term and don’t want to shriek to the tune that america wants. Which is counterproductive if your goal is to get russia to make the first move and get their economy destroyed This seems like a really convoluted way to try and pin this all on America, when in reality other countries can be just as lovely as America and are able to do lovely things all on their own.
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Jan 29, 2022 17:50
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:This seems like a really convoluted way to try and pin this all on America, when in reality other countries can be just as lovely as America and are able to do lovely things all on their own. Well yeah I agree I’m just trying to suss things out from both sides
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Jan 29, 2022 18:19
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Al-Saqr posted:Well yeah I agree I’m just trying to suss things out from both sides Not really because you've just spun a US objective and motivation out of thin air?
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Jan 29, 2022 18:22
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Alchenar posted:Not really because you've just spun a US objective and motivation out of thin air? No I didn’t it’s pretty obvious the goal has been containment of Russia and China for a while and looking for ways to get Russia and China out of the European market, Ukraine is a card in this game. Russia wants to re-assert control over its border states and expand as well
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Jan 29, 2022 18:26
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They aren't banning SWIFT. That's off the table and was discussed earlier in the thread. What they are doing is explicitly targeting Russian Banks, individuals and specific industries, etc. the end goal is pressuring wealthy Russian oligarchs who have economic interests overseas with the idea maybe they'll be able to pressure Putin. Imperialism is bad. It doesn't matter who does it. This isn't about containing anyone. This is trying to protect a Country with it's own people from a tyrant. Yes, the decisions NATO made during the 90s/2000s weren't that great but at the same time it's not true at all that anyone is trying to invade or attack Russia. Putin is being a huge dick on a international scale. It's up to him if he wants sanctions or not.
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Jan 29, 2022 18:45
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:What they are doing is explicitly targeting Russian Banks, individuals and specific industries, etc. the end goal is pressuring wealthy Russian oligarchs who have economic interests overseas with the idea maybe they'll be able to pressure Putin. That's the stated goal but oligarchs evade sanctions all the time; all it ends up doing is hurting the most vulnerable. Even the recent sanctions package proposal of banning all trade of Russian sovereign debt fucks with state enterprise but fails to target and pressure the right individuals.
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Jan 29, 2022 18:59
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https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1487465525051637765?s=20&t=GlgXw38FmKLEoEzuDRqBzQ My partner's business trip to Kyiv in March might get cancelled. If the goal here is to create the appearance of war to bring down the Ukrainian economy, they've succeeded. Right in line with the impossible to define "hybrid warfare" playbook, use the West's own pathology against it. FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 19:26 on Jan 29, 2022 |
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Jan 29, 2022 19:21
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Conspiratiorist posted:That's the stated goal but oligarchs evade sanctions all the time; all it ends up doing is hurting the most vulnerable. Even the recent sanctions package proposal of banning all trade of Russian sovereign debt fucks with state enterprise but fails to target and pressure the right individuals. I get that sanctions aren't perfect but it's tool like anything else. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't. It depends. Saying that "Well, they'll just get away with!" it cop out and a fallacy.
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Jan 29, 2022 20:20
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https://www.ft.com/content/0cbbd590-8e48-4687-a302-e74b6f0c905d A long and well written essay, summarising the situation in Ukraine. I can’t help you with paywall, since I think my “share article for free” links, as a paying subscriber, will ddox me, but I think that it’s a problem with multiple solutions. The article won’t teach you much new if you’ve followed the situation closely, but for getting up to speed it’s great.
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Jan 29, 2022 21:35
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I can’t help you with paywall, since I think my “share article for free” links, as a paying subscriber, will ddox me, but I think that it’s a problem with multiple solutions. The URL is the same on my own account, so probably not! I know what you mean though and was wary of it myself. If you like reading news and can afford it it’s worthwhile even if you’re completely against what they stand for, and it’s less obnoxious in terms of advertising compared to other mainstream sources. It seemed too expensive and it is expensive but I get at least as much entertainment out of it as a couple of vape carts. Gotta keep an eye on ‘em.
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Jan 29, 2022 22:10
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://www.ft.com/content/0cbbd590-8e48-4687-a302-e74b6f0c905d This should work for those that don't have a subscription: https://archive.is/Z270s
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Jan 29, 2022 22:36
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mawarannahr posted:The URL is the same on my own account, so probably not! I know what you mean though and was wary of it myself. Good to know. I’ll need to test it more thoroughly some day, but that’s at least an option then. And yeah, it’s expensive, but the quality bar for writing is relatively high even for opinion columns. I used to read the Economist for my economy and financial markets news interests, but I eventually lost my respect for them, as the Brexit progressed. That essentially left FT as the only major English language publication covering these topics which does not completely buy into the American school of thought on the subject. If you’re American then Bloomberg is really good, and WSJ (excl. opinion columns, where all that “family struggling on 500k” crap flies) is solid as well.
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Jan 29, 2022 22:38
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America wants Russia to take over Ukraine to increase it's influence over European NG imports. Okay it's happening: Joint Forces Operation: no ceasefire violations yesterday This is the first time this has happened in literally 8 years of fighting. " US has approached Hungary about temporary troop deployment, says Hungarian FM. Hungary "received an American request about temporary deployment of troops" in the country, FM Peter Szijjarto said Friday. Defense Ministry is conducting talks on the matter " WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 23:20 on Jan 29, 2022 |
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Jan 29, 2022 22:44
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:I get that sanctions aren't perfect but it's tool like anything else. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't. It depends. Saying that "Well, they'll just get away with!" it cop out and a fallacy. Is there really any evidence of sanctions working? The US loves to use sanctions, but I think it's a lot easier to point to sanctions regimes that have been failures than it is to find successes, unless the goal is just to immiserate the people living in a country.
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Jan 29, 2022 23:38
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Sinteres posted:Is there really any evidence of sanctions working? The US loves to use sanctions, but I think it's a lot easier to point to sanctions regimes that have been failures than it is to find successes, unless the goal is just to immiserate the people living in a country. Depends on what sanctions you are referring to and your definition of "works". They've been like used for centuries for a variety of purposes through out human history.
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Jan 29, 2022 23:40
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Also, my impression is that targeted sanctions, as described and employed by the US in recent decades, don't meaningfully exist, and the rhetoric about them being carefully refined to only emmiserate powerful people instead of filtering down to common people is a fig leaf. Would anyone have any info/resources as to what degree this is true or not?
Tweezer Reprise fucked around with this message at 23:47 on Jan 29, 2022 |
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Jan 29, 2022 23:41
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Sinteres posted:Is there really any evidence of sanctions working? It depends on how you quantify "working". Iran and North Korea by many measures are failed states, and the Crimea bill for Russia was ~$150bn (although you can't really map that to sanctions exclusively). In my opinion, sanctioning Russia appears ineffective because the West is collectively unwilling to seriously sanction it, since serious sanctions could easily cause non-trivial economic harm to EU. So, we get half-measures instead, and Russians also do actually do their homework to counteract them. Sanctions will need to be much more significant than what would've been considered serious in 2015, if the West wants to try to make a dent in Russian resolve swiftly.
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Jan 29, 2022 23:48
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The targeted sanctions, as in specifically limiting individual's access to national or international banking systems and foreign real estate markets certainly are very effective at making the targeted people unhappy. Idk if they're particularly effective at changing countries' policies (particularly since sanctions tend to be reactive), but yeah they absolutely are apparently a massive headache for the individuals sanctioned. collective/national sanctions are a whole other story and while they are relatively effective at causing a ton of misery, they don't seem to almost ever lead to any actual positive regime/policy change and, if anything, often seem to provide a particularly convenient scapegoat for struggling leaders. The magnitsky act was a good example: it was a huge headache for everyone it covered and afaik did not have a particularly significant amount of collateral damage, though holy gently caress did it cause (and continues to cause) significant pushback. The original campaign to influence the 2016 american election was explicitly part of an effort by katsyn to get the magnitsky restrictions repealed. Ironically they thought trump would be amenable to repealing it, but that clearly was a miscalculation Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 00:02 on Jan 30, 2022 |
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Jan 29, 2022 23:56
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Magnitsky act is a very pointed reminder, Russian elite hates it rather overtly.
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Jan 29, 2022 23:59
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cinci zoo sniper posted:It depends on how you quantify "working". Iran and North Korea by many measures are failed states, and the Crimea bill for Russia was ~$150bn (although you can't really map that to sanctions exclusively). In my opinion, sanctioning Russia appears ineffective because the West is collectively unwilling to seriously sanction it, since serious sanctions could easily cause non-trivial economic harm to EU. So, we get half-measures instead, and Russians also do actually do their homework to counteract them. Sanctions will need to be much more significant than what would've been considered serious in 2015, if the West wants to try to make a dent in Russian resolve swiftly. Russia has such large networks in the US and Europe that smuggling isn't a huge issue for them. Sanctions mostly hit the people of Russia moreos than the govt or Putin directly. I know you know that. Just adding context
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Jan 30, 2022 00:04
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Russia has such large networks in the US and Europe that smuggling isn't a huge issue for them. Sanctions mostly hit the people of Russia moreos than the govt or Putin directly. I know you know that. Just adding context So what? Since when does something have to work to be perfect?
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Jan 30, 2022 00:09
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More on the topic of Russian sanctions resilience, another FT article - https://www.ft.com/content/ffb2e754-b9ae-4018-8173-168bc37cf1e6 I checked Archive for it, and someone seems to have helpfully snapshotted it there already - https://archive.fo/S1g15
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Jan 30, 2022 00:13
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Not really clear how 15 of the russian elite being unable to buy real estate in nyc or use american banks hurts the russian people instead? Imo non-specific sanctions have been a huge failure and shouldn't be used, but idk how sanctions at that level of specificity are doing gross collateral damage. cinci zoo sniper posted:More on the topic of Russian sanctions resilience, another FT article - This is good, ty Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 00:17 on Jan 30, 2022 |
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Jan 30, 2022 00:14
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Herstory Begins Now posted:not really clear how 15 of the russian elite being unable to buy real estate in nyc or use american banks hurts the russian people instead? Denial of services doesn't hurt the average Russian people, but I do believe that many sanctions aimed at causing economic damage (e.g., embargo on some oligarch's company that prevents it from doing business with EU or US) are passed onto the people. Putin isn't universally merciful, but for certain people (oligarchs) he absolutely will make all the right exceptions.
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Jan 30, 2022 00:19
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Break down sanctions into three areas and you have to consider them differently because they're about doing different things and exerting different pressures: 1) Broad spectrum sanctions. Stuff that's just there to hit the economy and inflict pain. Lets pick a popular one on SA: BDS against Israel. It's not going to cause Israel to pack up and stop existing, but if taken up widely it would impose broad financial pain in a way that would plausible cause more Israelis to say 'hey is this pain to my wallet worth our government's policies?'. Probably more importantly, it's the economic version of Russia's 'frozen conflicts' - broad sanctions are a refusal to accept the status quo and mean that a bad faith actor who say, annexes Crimea, can't just wait 10-15 years and say 'hey I know you were upset then, but this is all history now you should just accept my actions', they have to come asking for sanctions to be lifted and the sanctions provide a measure of leverage. 2) Individual targetted sanctions. Punitive on Bad People which is a good thing, but also if you aren't dealing with a democracy then 1) isn't going to work so you can mess with an autocratic state by poking at the oligarchy. Probably not influential on critical decision making but raises costs on regimes by forcing the leader to look over their shoulder at the elites. 3) This is the one that everyone above forgot to mention but it's the biggie - sanctions on military and dual-use equipment. No French-built amphibious warfare ships. No German engines for Russian Naval vessels. No Italian night vision kits for tank upgrades. Russia has a strong domestic arms industry but there's a reason it was going to Europe for all this stuff to propell the modernisation program and getting that all cut off has to have been painful. quote:According to the Russian Centre for Statistics and Monitoring of S&T and Innovation, almost a third of all advanced technologies that are used in production in the Russian Federation are purchased abroad. At the same time, in the period 2011-18, technological dependence grew steadily: the share of imports jumped from 21.1% to 29.3%. Arms embargos are the most effective form of sanctions out there - if you can get everyone to sign up for them.
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Jan 30, 2022 00:20
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