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Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Lithuania has ceased Belaruskaliy cargo transit through their territory. Time to setup a Belta reminder for tomorrow, this is going to be a major headache for Lukashenko.

Lukashenko's already promised a strong response. As always, nobody says what the response might entail. There are supposedly counter-sanctions already in place that hurt the West more than their sanctions hurt Belarus. About the only bit that is known is ban on food products from certain countries, and even then only on some types, and by all estimations it's barely a dent on imports.

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WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

I have this feeling in a potential Russia goes full diplomatic blackout lukashenko gets ventilated through the brain and someone stupid loyal and week becomes his replacement as a further puppeting effort.

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


Paladinus posted:

Lukashenko's already promised a strong response. As always, nobody says what the response might entail. There are supposedly counter-sanctions already in place that hurt the West more than their sanctions hurt Belarus. About the only bit that is known is ban on food products from certain countries, and even then only on some types, and by all estimations it's barely a dent on imports.

oh no hes figured out that a steady tractor supply is all that holds the west together.

a podcast for cats
Jun 22, 2005

Dogs reading from an artifact buried in the ruins of our civilization, "We were assholes- " and writing solemnly, "They were assholes."
Soiled Meat

Xarn posted:

wtf is a bollardgate?

I was at work yesterday and had a bunch of meetings. This was done inbetween and during some of them. There are definitely mistakes, grammatical, lexical and factual, but it was my best effort and done in good faith. I also apologise for the lack of brevity.

Bollardgate (or "Staķīšu sāga" as some mockingly called it) is a recent, relatively minor and probably eventually inconsequential scandal by Latvian standards. It was, at the same time, very loud for a while, extremely stupid, still ongoing and we are due for round three (or is round two still going on?) soon. It also serves as an illustration to the mess that Latvian political discussion culture is and demonstrates why we can't have nice things.

In order to understand Bollardgate, you will need a bit of background :words: about Riga, the city it takes place in. None of it is particularly unique or very interesting, when compared to other places, but it's sufficiently obscure to write about it.

The city:

Approximately three fourths of the Latvian economy and a good half of the population is located in Riga and its surrounding urban area. Most business, government and admin activity is located there as well, while outlying suburbs and towns are mostly, but not entirely bedroom communities.

There is a trend for the emerged and emergent middle class to move to suburbs and exurbs outside the city limits for and commute to the city by car for work, school and services. It is a net benefit for the suburban municipalities, as they are the beneficiaries of 75% of the income tax paid by their residents regardless of where they are employed and as a result, many of the surrounding communities (especially Babīte, Mārupe, Garkalne, etc) are well on their way of becoming middle or upper class (what passes for it anyway) exurbs. It has became even more pronounced during the pandemic, driving home prices in those areas way past pre-GFC real estate bubble levels, but that is beyond the scope of this post. Keep those well-off commuters in mind though, their votes can still matter, especially if they maintain a property in Riga or game the school catchment area system by maintaining a registered address in the city.

The city itself is very flat and quite compact, but is split in the middle by a river and three out of the four bridges are smack in the middle of the city centre. In addition, much of the prewar centre is ringed by a railroad, which crosses over to the other side of the river and splits a few neighbourhoods on the other side. Nearly all railroad viaducts*/tunnels on either side of the river are narrow and/or in bad repair, causing traffic slowdowns or even bottlenecks, while the districts outside the prewar centre were planned during various periods of Soviet rule and the road layout was never intended for mass ownership of personal vehicles.

In practice that means that most of the time getting across town, especially to the other side of the river, will have you go through the city centre and through at least one traffic bottleneck. You would also be very likely to take one of the three main streets turned thoroughfares en route. The same streets see heavy use by public transit and suffer from decay and abandonment caused by noise, dirt and heavy traffic. That will be important later on.

Despite the city being flat and compact, there is very little cycling infrastructure and even walkability is becoming a concern.

On the upside, a couple of streets had cycle lanes added in earlier years, each time against much grumbling and eventual acceptance and, in 2018, during the previous city administration, the city paid Jan Gehl, a prominent urban planner, to carry out a mobility study and recommend improvements. Most of which were ignored later on.

On the downside, the quality of life for cyclists and pedestrians has been decreasing. The main issues are poor enforcement of traffic and parking violations for cars (running red lights is rampant, as is aggressive driving), proliferation of pedestrian barriers, disappearance of zebra crossings, considerable shortening of green light cycles for pedestrian traffic lights, replacement of timed traffic lights with pelican crossings that are either button operated or use poorly working automated traffic recognition cams.

Public transit is serviceable, but very packed during peak hours, tickets are pricy (and have a bad fare structure) and schedules suffer from traffic congestion (as an example, there's a key tram route where a single badly parked car can stop all tram traffic in one direction for about 30 minutes until the car is removed). In addition, it suffers from image problems, as many routes have a lot of fare dodging homeless people or addicts on them. This is a running gag on a popular satirical column ran by 40 year old edgelords.

In short, getting around is not as bad as it could be, but it's a bit of a chore.

The politics:

The municipal transit service company is a never-ending source of graft and corruption scandals. Procurement and tender bribes and kickbacks, false maintenance contracts, phantom employment of highly paid and politically connected consultants, etc. I tried counting them for the purposes of this post, but gave up. It's not crucially important (but it helps) to know that it was their mess that cost the previous mayor his seat. He was ousted** in 2019 after a tenure of nearly 3 terms, totalling about 9 years and about the same number of corruption scandals. A snap election was held in 2020. The scandals continue, seemingly uninterrupted, but also that is beyond the scope of this post.

The snap election led to the surprise victory of a 3 party political association of two liberal parties (A/PAR) and one of Latvian progressives/social democrats (PRO). I cannot remember what their platform was exactly, but seeing the vocal disappointment of mobility activists, transport issues must have been part of it.

Harmony (also Saskaņa or S), Russian social democrats, came second, centre right JV came third, followed by hardline nationalists and a number of barely relevant others. As is the custom by now, Latvian parties unified in an uncomfortable and strained coalition along ethnic and across ideological lines against the Harmony party. A new mayor and three vice mayors were appointed.

For context, about half or a little more of the population of the city speaks Russian as their first language. Many neighbourhoods and districts of the city are thoroughly mixed, but some areas weigh more Russian. This is not really relevant in itself, because individual neighbourhoods are not formally represented in the municipality (but can form neighbourhood associations and interest groups) and this scandal showed a remarkable unity of opinion between Latvian and Russian speakers, but we will get to that.

The new mayor, Mārtiņš Staķis (PAR), has been a vocal proponent of traffic calming measures and for a good reason. Less than two years earlier both his father and grandfather were killed in an accident when they used a "desire path" to cross a busy yet poorly lit street on foot and were hit by a car.

The scandal:

Encouraged by the largely positive response to a temporary pedestrianisation of a central street that normally sees little traffic, the municipality announced a trial introduction of cycle lanes on one of the three major thoroughfares of the city centre. This would reduce the number of car lanes on the street from four to two and address an issue with non-compliant cycle lane markings on a paralel street. This decision met resistance from both the public, especially commuters from outlying suburbs, and the traffic department*** of the city itself.

This was followed by the introduction of cycle lanes on several intersecting streets in the city centre and the delineation of said cycle lanes with flexible plastic bollards.

This kind:




Similar bollards were also installed in accident prone spots in other areas of the city, most notably on this street corner, where they were used to create a zebra crossing with a safety island.
https://goo.gl/maps/MGGvkEvFiYg1CdHB8

It looks deserted on Google Street View, but it is an important shortcut from one of the biggest affluent suburbs just outside of Riga and is located immediately after a narrow railway viaduct that is a frequent traffic bottleneck. A turning lane had been lost and commuters from Mārupe were furious.

After a video of a bendy bus having trouble navigating the turn went viral, the culture wars stupidity started and took social media by storm.

The stupidity:

Specifically, paraphrased hottest takes from the summer that got traction in TV news or high profile social media accounts. For Latvian readers - the EMS person is Roberts Fūrmanis and the journalist if, of course, Pauls Timrots.

General social media boomer posted:

Topknot wearing, Greta worshiping, latest iphone wielding millennial fixielords and their purple haired feminist theyfriends are oppressing honest family folk, value creators and small business owners by enforcing Western mobility solutions without understanding what makes cities work. If they worked proper jobs that afforded them cars, they'd understand that the soy milk for their lattes is delivered by diesel vans that pollute the most when idling in traffic and sing a different tune.

Classist variety GenX/Millennial posted:

This is just envy towards people more successful than them and can afford cars. Jumped up Sharikovs trying to bring everyone down to their own level, it's just like 1940 all over again.

Cui bono opinion articles posted:

Did you know the maintenance contract for each bollard costs nearly €13 per instance of cleaning and the entire maintenance contract totals €39000,00? You can buy the same type of bollard for 0.50c a piece on Alibaba. Does anyone know whose cousin is importing those bollards? Who is getting kickbacks from the contracts? Inquiring minds need to know.

National Cultural Heritage Authority posted:

Several Swedish made cobblestones potentially dating back to before the Great Northern War were damaged by careless, negligent and unsanctioned installation of bollards on the corner of Tērbatas and Krišjāņa Barona streets, the ensemble of which forms a part of UNESCO World Heritage Objects 852 and 7442. The authority condemns this action on the strongest terms possible and may pursue administrative or criminal legal action if it is not remedied immediately.

Prominent Emergency Medical Services doctor, minor Twitter celeb posted:

Bollards between car and cycle lanes prevent ambulances from entering cycle lanes and force them to drive and park on sidewalks in emergencies instead. Despite guidance that the bollards are flexible and will bend if driven over by a vehicle, it is not a viable option, because procedure requires that any damage to a bollard or an emergency vehicle is treated as a traffic accident with property damage, with subsequent paperwork requirement. This endangers more lives than it will save and the people who went through with this without consulting emergency services as major stakeholders are irresponsible at best and malicious at worst.

Driving/Car culture journalists posted:

: Much like forced diversity in media, bollards are a politically motivated action geared towards the acceptance of eventual elimination of the personal automobile in our cities and the freedom of movement it represents. Traffic calming measures can work if applied intelligently, but this clearly was not a consideration here, which serves further to prove that the goal is oppression and spite and they can spare us from the virtue signalling about saving lives. Furthermore, the traffic code does not recognise bollards as a legal means of delineating lanes.

Constructive criticism:

- Implementation of bollards to delineate lanes in several intersections was poor and caused issues for oversized vehicles.

- There is a considerable shortage of free and subsidised preschools (which is caused by absurdly low salaries for carers), with long waiting lists, particularly in Latvian speaking preschools. This contributes to peak hour traffic as kids are being shuttled to preschools they got a spot in in, rather than closest ones.

- Elementary and high schools use a catchment area system, which is habitually manipulated by parents to get kids into more prestigious or better regarded schools, which contributes further to traffic.

- No specialised equipment was procured for the cleaning of snow, ice and debris from the delineated lanes. Bollards and barriers are being damaged and destroyed during snow removal by non-specialised vehicles.

The outcome:

The bike lane trial on the major thoroughfare was deemed to have been unsuccessful and one of the cycle lanes was replaced by a public transit lane. The city will remove bollards from the most controversial spots. There are unsubstantiated rumours that no further measures will be taken until after the next election. PRO and PAR took a lot of PR damage as their supporters took to social media to defend the solutions.

However, in a recent interview the mayor stated, paraphrased, "traffic calming, including the placement of bollards, will continue until driving culture improves and people stop dying on the streets". Hoping for round two.

Conclusions:

Good policy, bad politics.

What I should/could have mentioned, but chose not to:

- Urban decay and abandonment in the city centre, calls for revitalisation of the area and the slow turnaround that seems to happening now,
- The enduring significance of cars as symbols for success, status and conspicuous consumption.
- The role of NGOs, neighbourhood associations and interest groups in municipal politics,
- The increasing divide and detachment between Riga and rest of the country,
- The proposed and accepted strategy of urban mobility with pedestrian and public transit as a priority and the car centric reality.

*For avoidance of doubt, road bridges over ground level railroad tracks

**Ironically, the minister who requested his resignation was later forced to resign himself, in a scandal of his own. He had leveraged his political influence to unethically obtain a parking pass intended for city councilmen. That wasn't their most recent or worst scandal, however. The same party, including the same exminister, are currently embroiled in a party financing scandal, which has sealed the fate of the 3 party association, but this is also beyond the scope of the post.

***Yet another minor scandal. The former head of this department at the time is a controversial, yet untouchable figure and his dismissal is currently the subject of drawn out court proceedings.

a podcast for cats fucked around with this message at 15:23 on Feb 1, 2022

Osmosisch
Sep 9, 2007

I shall make everyone look like me! Then when they trick each other, they will say "oh that Coyote, he is the smartest one, he can even trick the great Coyote."



Grimey Drawer
:allears: Thank you so much!

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Paladinus posted:

Lukashenko's already promised a strong response. As always, nobody says what the response might entail. There are supposedly counter-sanctions already in place that hurt the West more than their sanctions hurt Belarus. About the only bit that is known is ban on food products from certain countries, and even then only on some types, and by all estimations it's barely a dent on imports.

Are the Russian bans on evil Western homo-cheese from around the Euromaidan still in place?

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013





Great post, thank you! I’ll pour one out for you going all the trouble to even remember the “cost efficiency” clowns. I’m a quantitative analyst by trade, so the Alibaba bollard takes tend to raise my blood pressure.

Two questions - what do you mean with a “desire path”, and do you have any sources to suggest for learning about conditions in the Rīga real estate market? On the latter, I check what banks publish every now and then, but I’d like something more current if you or other Latvian poster have anything specific in mind.

Doctor Malaver
May 23, 2007

Ce qui s'est passé t'a rendu plus fort
Zagreb had its own bollard scandal a few years ago. The late mayor gave the contract to his buddy so bollards started appearing all over the city in thousands, often completely needlessly. I don't think it warrants such an in-depth analysis though, we have countless scandals like that.

Osmosisch
Sep 9, 2007

I shall make everyone look like me! Then when they trick each other, they will say "oh that Coyote, he is the smartest one, he can even trick the great Coyote."



Grimey Drawer

cinci zoo sniper posted:

what do you mean with a “desire path”
I assume they mean the kind of organic paths that arise spontaneously out of poor sidewalk/pathing planning. http://www.olifantenpaadjes.nl/

Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

Warsaw used to have a bollard affair back in the late 90s, kinda like the Zagreb one it seems. Whole city was strewn with dark green bollards, none of which are around today.

Once highway construction kicked off a few years ago, we had a country version of bollard gate - noise screen gate. You now have 100 km long stretches of highways running through empty nowheres, surrounded by 6 meter tall non-transparent fencing. This was due to some very strange, “accidental” environmental regulations and people standing at the ready with a seemingly endless supply of highway noise barriers.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

steinrokkan posted:

Are the Russian bans on evil Western homo-cheese from around the Euromaidan still in place?

They are. Russia's managed to substitute a considerable chunk of import with new domestic products but they still can't satisfy the demand. Burger King even requested the Ministry of Industry and Trade to lift the embargo on European cheeses, as they're struggling with buying enough in Russia.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

steinrokkan posted:

Are the Russian bans on evil Western homo-cheese from around the Euromaidan still in place?

Apparently:
https://twitter.com/APHClarkson/status/1488466347596075011?cxt=HHwWhsCyybiQjKgpAAAA

a podcast for cats
Jun 22, 2005

Dogs reading from an artifact buried in the ruins of our civilization, "We were assholes- " and writing solemnly, "They were assholes."
Soiled Meat

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Great post, thank you! I’ll pour one out for you going all the trouble to even remember the “cost efficiency” clowns. I’m a quantitative analyst by trade, so the Alibaba bollard takes tend to raise my blood pressure.

Two questions - what do you mean with a “desire path”, and do you have any sources to suggest for learning about conditions in the Rīga real estate market? On the latter, I check what banks publish every now and then, but I’d like something more current if you or other Latvian poster have anything specific in mind.

Someone else already replied below, but yeah, desire paths are shortcuts that form naturally instead or in addition of planned paths or walkways. People walk where it makes sense to them, instead of where planners want them to go. You can embrace them and embellish the paths, making them official, you can ignore them and you can actively block them by putting pedestrian barriers in front of them.

Like this (the arrow is not mine, I just like how compact the contrast between the expected and real path is):



As to real estate analysis, I don't quite know to be honest. Latio and Arco Real used to and probably still publish quarterly reports on market conditions and they'd often be picked up by Dienas Bizness, but my conjecture there was based on spending a lot of time on browsing ads.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Osmosisch posted:

I assume they mean the kind of organic paths that arise spontaneously out of poor sidewalk/pathing planning. http://www.olifantenpaadjes.nl/

a podcast for cats posted:

Someone else already replied below, but yeah, desire paths are shortcuts that form naturally instead or in addition of planned paths or walkways. People walk where it makes sense to them, instead of where planners want them to go. You can embrace them and embellish the paths, making them official, you can ignore them and you can actively block them by putting pedestrian barriers in front of them.

Like this (the arrow is not mine, I just like how compact the contrast between the expected and real path is):



As to real estate analysis, I don't quite know to be honest. Latio and Arco Real used to and probably still publish quarterly reports on market conditions and they'd often be picked up by Dienas Bizness, but my conjecture there was based on spending a lot of time on browsing ads.

Gotcha and fair enough, cheers!

Paladinus posted:

They are. Russia's managed to substitute a considerable chunk of import with new domestic products but they still can't satisfy the demand. Burger King even requested the Ministry of Industry and Trade to lift the embargo on European cheeses, as they're struggling with buying enough in Russia.

This reads like an honest-to-god satire. But so do many other things about Belarus current affairs, I guess.

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

I have this feeling in a potential Russia goes full diplomatic blackout lukashenko gets ventilated through the brain and someone stupid loyal and week becomes his replacement as a further puppeting effort.

I think Assad was the perfect test case to see if Putin intended to be as brutal to allies as the Soviets were, and if they let even that fuckup live and continue to rule, I think Putin will find a way to live with Lukashenko too. Getting a reputation for murking allies obviously makes it hard to find new allies, and even if there aren't many left to lose in Europe, they still have to worry about Central Asia.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1488479102319448064?s=20&t=RDkvn_EH-NdgxbFY181lvQ

"The decree is not because a war is coming soon. I am saying this to everyone. The decree is for peace in Ukraine soon and onwards,"

dont do it you idiot

Cugel the Clever
Apr 5, 2009
I LOVE AMERICA AND CAPITALISM DESPITE BEING POOR AS FUCK. I WILL NEVER RETIRE BUT HERE'S ANOTHER 200$ FOR UKRAINE, SLAVA
Good write-up on Bollardgate. It's a shame that suburbanization and car dependency is a trap that so many countries fall into as personal purchasing power increases.

FishBulbia posted:


dont do it you idiot
Don't do what? Prepare to respond to the threat of invasion as best as possible?

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Make peace come by attacking donbas; really though I think people are reading too much into this and those words mean exactly squat.

Also let's not twist this, war isn't coming soon. You're taking part in a disinfo campaign.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1488537000143687688

FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 16:44 on Feb 1, 2022

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

FishBulbia posted:

Make peace come by attacking donbas; really though I think people are reading too much into this and those words mean exactly squat.

Also let's not twist this, war isn't coming soon. You're taking part in a disinfo campaign.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1488537000143687688



Yeah this totally doesn't speed up Russia's potential expansion into Ukraine.

"
Putin holds a meeting with the Hungarian prime minister. Orban said that none of the European leaders wants war: we are in favor of peace agreements
"

The fascists are meeting and they only want peace!

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

Nothing in this decree is about current events (except the messaging). Increasing the standing Ukrainian army by 50% is a years long project and presumably will come at the cost of reserves. All the other stuff in the announcement like career pathway professionalisation for officers, improving housing, and increasing contract terms is all just stuff that was on the checklist for transitioning the Ukrainian army from a Soviet-legacy model into a NATO style model.

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

If it's not about current events, deciding now is the time for announcements is not very bright.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Sinteres posted:

If it's not about current events, deciding now is the time for announcements is not very bright.

I think now it’s a very good time, for morale of Ukrainian troops, to announce that the state is further investing into them. Especially the salaries part. It’s worded slightly dramatically, in my opinion, but otherwise I second what Alchenar says.

Numlock
May 19, 2007

The simplest seppo on the forums
Public signal from the government to the army as a whole.

Do you guys not work at big companies that do all employe state of the company type meetings or videos? Mine does and this is that sort of thing.

Usually boils down to "everything great!, those rumors you heard? Unfounded!"

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Paladinus posted:

They are. Russia's managed to substitute a considerable chunk of import with new domestic products but they still can't satisfy the demand. Burger King even requested the Ministry of Industry and Trade to lift the embargo on European cheeses, as they're struggling with buying enough in Russia.



This owns so much

Qtotonibudinibudet
Nov 7, 2011



Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki
Poland is Building The Wall and destroying pristine old-growth forest in the process https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/polish-belarusian-border-wall-environmental-disaster

but hey maybe they'll obey EU law and not do that

Terminally Bored
Oct 31, 2011

Twenty-five dollars and a six pack to my name

CMYK BLYAT! posted:

Poland is Building The Wall and destroying pristine old-growth forest in the process https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/polish-belarusian-border-wall-environmental-disaster

but hey maybe they'll obey EU law and not do that

My post from 2019:

Terminally Bored posted:

Poland is a complete shithole and lately not a day goes by when I'm not deeply ashamed of my country

Xarn
Jun 26, 2015
I can never understand people thinking that we should work more closely as V4, because look at half the fuckers in there.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Numlock posted:

Public signal from the government to the army as a whole.

Do you guys not work at big companies that do all employe state of the company type meetings or videos? Mine does and this is that sort of thing.

Usually boils down to "everything great!, those rumors you heard? Unfounded!"

The actual and more pressing issue, really, is the recent shooting in a Dniepr military unit, where a soldier killed six and wounded four other soldiers. It is speculated that he was bullied by his seniors. Not the first shooting like that either.

anilEhilated
Feb 17, 2014

But I say fuck the rain.

Grimey Drawer

Xarn posted:

I can never understand people thinking that we should work more closely as V4, because look at half the fuckers in there.
Right? And the thing is, I'm fairly sure people in each of the countries say that.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Xarn posted:

I can never understand people thinking that we should work more closely as V4, because look at half the fuckers in there.

Just today I saw an article about how V4 is totally great and important, it just has an itty bitty problem with populism that will be over any day soon :thumbsup: :bravo:

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Paladinus posted:

The actual and more pressing issue, really, is the recent shooting in a Dniepr military unit, where a soldier killed six and wounded four other soldiers. It is speculated that he was bullied by his seniors. Not the first shooting like that either.

Oh yeah, dedovshina (for international readers, a special kind of hazing attributed to Red Army) is some “cool” stuff. The Ukrainian military friend I mentioned before had to deal with several suicides, due to it, in just one year that I’m recalling now, and Russian and Belarus friends who have served recently don’t have significantly better stories about it either.

It was so utterly cancerous to tear out of our armed forces that, as far as I know (other Latvians itt might be old enough to still have been drafted), it still can be found - after like a decade of having a small, professional military. Admittedly, you must look more towards paramilitary units for that now, e.g., the border guard or the national guard, but even with American instructors breathing down our necks it was very difficult to exorcise.

Edit:

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/01/russia-ukraine-tensions-worsen-00004070

Putin seems to be very vocal about being unhappy with Western written response to their proposals, yet he also seems to imply that diplomacy may continue. US intelligence alleges that additional 30k troops will get moved to the front this month, so we still get to wonder to what end all of this will end up being.

cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 02:45 on Feb 2, 2022

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

""Russia adding to combat capabilities but also "sustainment & logistics" to forces surrounding Ukraine, per @PentagonPresSec "That includes field hospitals & doctors & nurses" "[Putin] has enough capability to move now if he wants to.he could move imminently" per Kirby""

Old news being re-hashed

""
The US has not shared the intel about the imminent Russian threat with Ukraine, the sources close to the Ukrainian government told. American officials are only citing the intel report but not sharing the document itself with Kyiv, they clarified
""

""
"We are ready to give Ukraine tens of thousands in artillery and ammunitions rounds, but also surface-to-air weapons of the Grom class and light mortar systems, as well as drones," PM Morawiecki said
""


THIS JUST IN: Ukrainians are trying to revive Heinrich the first and using black Magic to kill Putin. Russia must protect orthodoxy and save the childre!

WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 06:21 on Feb 2, 2022

Somaen
Nov 19, 2007

by vyelkin
I liked this overview of the situation by Milov, he is again another ally of Navalny and Nemtsov that is now exiled. He worked in the government's energy ministry in the early 00s and now is buddy buddy with European politicians in getting sanctions passed and supporting the Russian opposition so he has some insights into the kitchen of the government and what's happening on the Euro side.

He's notably interested in toppling Putin, but instead of trying to scare into more sanctions with an inevitable war, is saying here it's unlikely to happen

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QU6SX6GOzFM

Some points he makes
- Russian forces are better than before but out of the 100k on the border doubtful that 70% or even 50% are combat ready
- Even with air superiority and flat terrain attacking a country that size requires 300-400k troops for the extremely difficult urban warfare (brings Syria and Chechnya as an example)
- Putin pulled back after well dug in Mariupol resisted. Similar resistance is to be expected in every Ukrainian city
- Muraev and others the press leaked as being considered for being put as a puppet are nobodies. Suspects that western intelligence is being fed disinfo
- Putin is sensitive to economic disturbances despite the bravado and "actually sanctions are good for us". If the threat of sanctions sent the rouble into free fall, actual sanctions are too much for the Russian economy

I'll add more after a rewatch.

Does seem like everything took a more positive tone recently after all the meetings. Grandpa just needed some attention and respek for being stronk after years in the bunker :shobon:

Somaen fucked around with this message at 08:19 on Feb 2, 2022

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


Doing the basic math if there were economic oil and gas sanctions Russia would potentially lose a third of it's income. Of course, Europe would freeze and potentially lose it's electricity too.

Somaen
Nov 19, 2007

by vyelkin
I don't think anyone would freeze considering Europe has storages not owned by Gazprom and a lot of LNG coming due to the freakout and we are halfway through the winter

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


Somaen posted:

I don't think anyone would freeze considering Europe has storages not owned by Gazprom and a lot of LNG coming due to the freakout and we are halfway through the winter

I did see there's a ton of redirection of LNG from Asia to Europe but I wonder how long that storage will last not to mention if there is war and/or economic sanctions energy prices are going to be wild.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Crosby B. Alfred posted:

I did see there's a ton of redirection of LNG from Asia to Europe but I wonder how long that storage will last not to mention if there is war and/or economic sanctions energy prices are going to be wild.

I’ve heard estimates that current storage could last until the end of winter. Saving enough for the next would be incredibly difficult, though.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

""US told Kremlin it's willing to discuss giving Russia a way to verify there aren't Tomahawk cruise missiles stationed at NATO bases in Romania and Poland—on condition Russia shares similar info on certain bases in Russia, sources tell @JenniferJJacobs, @AlbertoNardelli and Henry Meyer
""

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




https://www.rbc.ru/politics/01/02/2022/61f951439a7947918c54209d

Russian government is going forward mass censure of Navalnyi’s 2017-2020 content, using extremism prevention laws which now conveniently apply to him.

Edit:

3000 US troops are being deployed to Germany, Poland, and Romania, separately from 8500 put on standby orders before.

https://www.axios.com/biden-us-troops-eastern-europe-nato-ukraine-b2c0bb1e-5bc9-400d-860f-5013584c2d71.html

cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 16:34 on Feb 2, 2022

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fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

cinci zoo sniper posted:

https://www.rbc.ru/politics/01/02/2022/61f951439a7947918c54209d

Russian government is going forward mass censure of Navalnyi’s 2017-2020 content, using extremism prevention laws which now conveniently apply to him.


Meanwhile Chechnya's representative in Duma is recording instagram videos threatening his enemies (and anyone who translates his videos into Russian) with beheadings which is extremely fine and normal

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