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CommieGIR posted:"They don't know I put Olivier in the olivye" Ftfy
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Feb 3, 2022 03:47
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Someone call The Hague.
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Feb 3, 2022 04:45
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" Germany's Scholz says will travel to Moscow 'soon' to discuss Ukraine " The Scholz-Putin pact Oh..oh my god
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Feb 3, 2022 07:17
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Once again the social democrats embarrass and discredit themselves the second they are given a shot at power, the one constant of global politics
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Feb 3, 2022 07:42
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steinrokkan posted:Once again the social democrats embarrass and discredit themselves the second they are given a shot at power, the one constant of global politics Why does this guy have to visit his master and then spout later on how productive the meeting was? The only winning move would be not to play.
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Feb 3, 2022 08:15
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North Korea can wipe out Seoul with artillery and probably lob some ballistic missiles at Japan. This shows they're very strong and East Asian countries definitely need to surrender and accept any quote:a "fundamentally weak" country that could kill more people than both world wars in a couple of hours. States can be military super powers without being economic powers. Russians don't want to kill Ukrainians and Putin's security apparatus isn't unhinged enough to do it and would face catastrophic blowback dooming his regime and historic legacy. I hope the alleviates the unhealthy WW3 and nuclear weapon anxiety you keep talking about
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Feb 3, 2022 08:30
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Its a very underhanded move, to attempt to start nuclear chat 30 minutes after I fall asleep.
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Feb 3, 2022 08:36
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In a number of ways Russia is a weak country, it is a 144 mln people country between 1.4 billion China and 445 mln EU.
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Feb 3, 2022 08:40
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Somaen posted:Russians don't want to kill Ukrainians and Putin's security apparatus isn't unhinged enough to do it and would face catastrophic blowback dooming his regime and historic legacy. I hope the alleviates the unhealthy WW3 and nuclear weapon anxiety you keep talking about But you see, I'm trying to anchor this screw into drywall, and I may not have a screwdriver, but I have my uncle's sledgehammer that is obviously much more powerful, which actually makes me more capable of completing my task. Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:Why does this guy have to visit his master and then spout later on how productive the meeting was? The only winning move would be not to play. steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 08:49 on Feb 3, 2022 |
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Feb 3, 2022 08:46
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:" I understand why Germany does not want to aggrevate or provoke Putin, so far as saying they will do what is neccessary if Russia invades but not actually saying what that is (cancelling NS2). It does seem like the US is sort of daring Russia to step on its own dick and invade Ukraine, and Ukraine and the EU are have realised that and are doing whatever they can to ease tensions. What I do not understand is this talk of an off ramp. Putin put himself and unfortunately Russia in this situation, why should the West give in to him and offer any means to save face? Putin has put himself in a corner, he can back down and lose his strong daddy status or he can invade and further isolate his country as well as get bogged down in Ukraine. Maybe one day in the future Putin the IV will restore the borders of Imperial Russia, annex all the land of the Slavs, and move his capital to Constantinople. But until that time comes the only logical choice for Russia is to work with and intergrate towards the EU and the West, and invading or threatning multiple of your neighboring countries is not going to help with that.
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Feb 3, 2022 09:05
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Germany lobbied to even further water down the conditions for gas to count as green energy, according to this weeks update on the green taxonomy, so maybe Scholz is going after that Hungarian discount on Russian gas.
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Feb 3, 2022 09:07
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It is a way more logical choice than whatever it is they are doing now. The problem here is that EU and west tend to create a lot of fuss about human rights and corruption, elections and all that making it way more difficult to keep power and launder money.
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Feb 3, 2022 09:11
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Flavahbeast posted:I don't think theres anything about Chechens in it, I took it from this poll: https://www.pewforum.org/2017/05/10/religious-belief-and-national-belonging-in-central-and-eastern-europe/ Found it https://www.levada.ru/2020/09/23/ksenofobiya-i-natsionalizm-2/ It's even more ridiculous, 26 percent believe that Chechens should not be allowed into the country........... should someone tell them?
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Feb 3, 2022 09:12
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One point against appeasing Putin is his flagrant violations of all agreements made to date. https://twitter.com/USEmbassyKyiv/status/1488961631740735493?t=rWkJhwJZfVXCvNnIb9etNQ&s=19 If the US were to stupidly pronounce that Ukraine will never be allowed to join NATO, as per part of the Russian demands, do we really expect Russia to just draw down from the border? The only incentives to do so in that scenario would be the cost involved in maintaining the current posture. They sure as gently caress don't care about appearing recalcitrant—after all, their official position is that there is no preparation for invasion, so why make changes? If anything, the incentive after being handed such a concession is to double down. The West effectively declaring that Ukraine is doomed to Russian subjugation probably wouldn't be great for Zelensky and that instability would be compounded were Russia to remain poised for invasion.There'd have to be some kind of stick to accompany the carrot and I don't know what that could be. Binding agreements in the West to impose meaningful sanctions might do it, but I'm skeptical. Edit: As mentioned above, better to present a unified front and let Putin either choose to call it quits and pretend it was all wild Russo-phobic propaganda from the West, or to show the world how loving barbarous he is by murdering thousands of Ukrainians and further dooming his country to a sharp slide into the dustbin of history. Cugel the Clever fucked around with this message at 09:34 on Feb 3, 2022 |
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Feb 3, 2022 09:26
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Yea the "security concerns" about NATO nukes in Kharkov or whatever are a thinly veiled lie to get other countries to admit Russia's imperial right to control Ukraine through economic means or regime change and all the current events are a stupid dance to get those guarantees If NATO god forbid backed down this would be seen a win and show that NATO is malleable and weak and the security concerns would grow in proportion to the need of expanding economic influence, e.g. next security concern could be that the Estonian and Finnish borders are too close to Saint Petersburg and the whole stupid dance of "Russia has legitimate security concerns and needs guarantees" will start again
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Feb 3, 2022 09:38
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Yeah the best course of action for NATO is to arm every man, woman and child with the finest pillows and stahlhelms to fight against Russian ambitions down to the last Ukrainian.
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Feb 3, 2022 09:48
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Cugel the Clever posted:The West effectively declaring that Ukraine is doomed to Russian subjugation probably wouldn't be great for Zelensky and that instability would be compounded were Russia to remain poised for invasion.There'd have to be some kind of stick to accompany the carrot and I don't know what that could be. Binding agreements in the West to impose meaningful sanctions might do it, but I'm skeptical. West already did this. Yet still don't believe Russia really desires to annex Ukraine.
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Feb 3, 2022 09:48
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FishBulbia posted:West already did this. Yet still don't believe Russia really desires to annex Ukraine. What? No, quite the opposite. NATO, EU, and the US have basically said they will support Ukraine and punish Russia with every means available short of declaring war on Russia. And there is not any serious foreign analysis that believes Putin has no intention of annexing Ukraine.
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Feb 3, 2022 09:54
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Conspiratiorist posted:Yeah the best course of action for NATO is to arm every man, woman and child with the finest pillows and stahlhelms to fight against Russian ambitions down to the last Ukrainian. Good thing Ukrainians and Russians have no agency and we can dismiss them and just discuss NATO, that it is bad because if they do things then world war 3 and provoking, and if they don't then they're just using Ukrainians as pawns. Such bad folks.
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Feb 3, 2022 09:55
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Dick Ripple posted:What? No, quite the opposite. NATO, EU, and the US have basically said they will support Ukraine and punish Russia with every means available short of declaring war on Russia. And there is not any serious foreign analysis that believes Putin has no intention of annexing Ukraine. I would say the expert consensus is that Russia desires regime change, not annexation. Russia doesn't particularly need more land. Ukraine won't be in NATO, saying so does nothing to change the strategic situation.
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Feb 3, 2022 10:28
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Somaen posted:Yea the "security concerns" about NATO nukes in Kharkov or whatever are a thinly veiled lie to get other countries to admit Russia's imperial right to control Ukraine through economic means or regime change and all the current events are a stupid dance to get those guarantees Cugel the Clever posted:As mentioned above, better to present a unified front and let Putin either choose to call it quits and pretend it was all wild Russo-phobic propaganda from the West, or to show the world how loving barbarous he is by murdering thousands of Ukrainians and further dooming his country to a sharp slide into the dustbin of history. This is essentially it. The reason Putin behaves like this is because either he gets concessions (win), or he gets to throw the world into crisis thus signalling Russia's Great Power status (win as far as he is concerned). The only way the West/NATO can respond to this is to not respond to it - to make it clear that we are just going to keep doing what we are doing on our own calculus.
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Feb 3, 2022 10:37
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Most of all Russia wants to seal the annexation of the Crimea and make Ukraine approve it so the sanctions could be let go. Persuading Kyiv to this great idea just isn't as easy as Putin hoped but he sure isn't going to budge either.
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Feb 3, 2022 10:39
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cinci zoo sniper posted:howling https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/02/putins-gambit-donbas-ukraine-west-doesnt-understand-00004616 "If youve been listening to statements coming out of the Kremlin, youve probably noticed that Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin, repeatedly talk about something called the Minsk Protocols or the Minsk agreements. And you might also know that those agreements have to do with the status of two allegedly pro-Russian regions of the Donbass, a coal-mining region of Ukraine that borders Russia and that Russia has occupied since 2014. You might even be aware that some experts in the West consider those two regions something of a bargaining chip perhaps, such experts think, letting Russia annex or control those two regions might be part of a compromise that could mollify Putin and prevent a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. Unfortunately, thats exactly what Putin wants you to think, and its a serious misreading of how he plans to use Donbass. What Putin knows (and the West hasnt yet understood) is that any move by Ukraine to formally recognize some kind of independence for Donbass will set off mass protests across Ukraine. According to my understanding of Russian strategy, which I developed in the national security sector of Ukraine including working with NATO to monitor and detect Russian threats, Russias real goal is to use such protests to internally destabilize Ukraine to organize attacks on the government and military command-and-control system using attackers disguised as protesters and to assassinate top officials. Such chaos would disorganize the Ukrainian armed forces and justify its military invasion of Ukraine in the guise of restoring order. That would set off a string of events that would likely end in a partition of Ukraine."
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Feb 3, 2022 11:48
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Thats a solid take, imo, even though I find it unlikely that handwringing about Minsk is going to bring recognition to the Donbas republics. Whichever government of Ukraine does that would definitely face massive civil unrest, as that would be only slightly better than formally surrendering Crimea to Russia.
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Feb 3, 2022 11:56
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Lithuania stopped the transit of Belarusian potash, the change in tone of the BMFA is remarkable https://mobile.twitter.com/BelarusMFA/status/1488900068581289989
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Feb 3, 2022 15:35
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As expected, the move has them quite by the balls. Next up, Estonian parliamentary inquiry into the sanctions circumvention scheme run by some people in Latvia and Estonia. Edit: https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1796909/ DW has been banned from working in Russia, in retaliation against shuttering of RTs German channel. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 17:13 on Feb 3, 2022 |
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Feb 3, 2022 15:39
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Somaen posted:Good thing Ukrainians and Russians have no agency and we can dismiss them and just discuss NATO, that it is bad because if they do things then world war 3 and provoking, and if they don't then they're just using Ukrainians as pawns. Such bad folks. I mean, point out where I was wrong.
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Feb 3, 2022 18:31
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Conspiratiorist posted:Yeah the best course of action for NATO is to arm every man, woman and child with the finest pillows and stahlhelms to fight against Russian ambitions down to the last Ukrainian. The thing is, Putin's ambitions are not necessarily shared by Russians. The idea of funding a theoretical Ukrainian integration is already unpopular, so if the country is flooded with javelins and nlaws that locals could use to inflict regular losses against ru occupation forces it could alter the calculus against war and if there is no invasion those javelin caches can be dug up and sold to bolster the Ukrainian economy, big wins all around
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Feb 3, 2022 19:31
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The country is already flooded with domestic ATGMs so sending them Javelins is just a small step up over fresh German helmets.
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Feb 3, 2022 19:39
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Flavahbeast posted:The thing is, Putin's ambitions are not necessarily shared by Russians. The idea of funding a theoretical Ukrainian integration is already unpopular, so if the country is flooded with javelins and nlaws that locals could use to inflict regular losses against ru occupation forces it could alter the calculus against war As a Russian I have many Ukrainian friends and all my life we have been brothers from a different mother and this conflict is super stupid and annoying.
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Feb 3, 2022 19:59
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Conspiratiorist posted:The country is already flooded with domestic ATGMs so sending them Javelins is just a small step up over fresh German helmets. Not really, all missiles aren't equal. I don't know of any Ukrainian made fire and forget, thermal targeting, top attack missiles likeJavelin or Spike. They can't be jammed or shot down and there's no laser warning to the target like with older generation missiles.
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Feb 3, 2022 20:03
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"Finally, the chip shortage was solved by second hand electronics from Ukrainian Javelin sales"
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Feb 3, 2022 20:08
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CommieGIR posted:"Finally, the chip shortage was solved by second hand electronics from Ukrainian Javelin sales" So that's why my PlayStation 5 shot through the window and blew up my neighbour's koda 
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Feb 3, 2022 20:12
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Nenonen posted:Not really, all missiles aren't equal. I don't know of any Ukrainian made fire and forget, thermal targeting, top attack missiles likeJavelin or Spike. They can't be jammed or shot down and there's no laser warning to the target like with older generation missiles. Pretty sure the stuff that's there is boatloads of is old Soviet stuff half of which isn't in working order, not the newer Ukrainian domestic models, too. (And I think Stugna is still laser guided?)
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Feb 3, 2022 20:17
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I'm not sure if anyone can answer this, but how bad would it be if an intact javelin missile fell into Russian hands? Because I was thinking if Russia did invade surely they would probably mow over some front line defenses and get their hands on one. Maybe it's not super cutting edge technology but it would still be bad I would think?
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Feb 3, 2022 23:43
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Nenonen posted:Not really, all missiles aren't equal. I don't know of any Ukrainian made fire and forget, thermal targeting, top attack missiles likeJavelin or Spike. They can't be jammed or shot down and there's no laser warning to the target like with older generation missiles. While this is true, not every Russian armored vehicle they Ukrainians would be dealing with will be a top of the line T90 tank. Russia will invade with tons of APCs like BMP3s, BTRs, maybe BMP2s? They are not as heavily armored and don't have the anti missiles defenses of main battle tanks. Plus they make a juicy target because they can be filled with troops. So the domestically built Ukrainian ATGMs will probably make short work of those vehicles.
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Feb 3, 2022 23:48
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Charliegrs posted:I'm not sure if anyone can answer this, but how bad would it be if an intact javelin missile fell into Russian hands? Because I was thinking if Russia did invade surely they would probably mow over some front line defenses and get their hands on one. Maybe it's not super cutting edge technology but it would still be bad I would think? It's an old launcher with plenty of countries using it, including countries known for corrupt public officials. I would be really surprised if Russians haven't dissected at least a couple by now, whichever way they've gotten them.
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Feb 3, 2022 23:49
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Charliegrs posted:I'm not sure if anyone can answer this, but how bad would it be if an intact javelin missile fell into Russian hands? Because I was thinking if Russia did invade surely they would probably mow over some front line defenses and get their hands on one. Maybe it's not super cutting edge technology but it would still be bad I would think? Can't imagine they haven't gotten a bunch from OddObserver fucked around with this message at 23:52 on Feb 3, 2022 |
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Feb 3, 2022 23:50
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Charliegrs posted:While this is true, not every Russian armored vehicle they Ukrainians would be dealing with will be a top of the line T90 tank. Russia will invade with tons of APCs like BMP3s, BTRs, maybe BMP2s? They are not as heavily armored and don't have the anti missiles defenses of main battle tanks. Plus they make a juicy target because they can be filled with troops. So the domestically built Ukrainian ATGMs will probably make short work of those vehicles. Also, everything we've seen so far is Russia bring up armored reserves with like T64s and T80s, like, if it does come down to a fight, the Russian army can burn off a bunch of Soviet-era armor they have and then ask for some Armatas to replace them. Also, the reason that why the Russians haven't developed something like the Javelin is that they sort have (the Kornet has a new 'block' that adds a top-down, fire-and-forget attack), but Javelins are expensive to produce and the Russian army doesn't have the money to burn like the American military. Young Freud fucked around with this message at 23:58 on Feb 3, 2022 |
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Feb 3, 2022 23:55
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Why are people treating Russia like it's so backwards it can't figure out how a Javelin works and so they're going to be rushing to get one like it's a big win for a military that has hypersonic cruise missiles and anti-satellite weaponry? Like, they may not be able to match the US in conventional arms but a Javelin is not going to throw them for a loop
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Feb 4, 2022 00:50
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