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Which horse film is your favorite?
This poll is closed.
Black Beauty 2 1.06%
A Talking Pony!?! 4 2.13%
Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor 117 62.23%
War Horse 11 5.85%
Mr. Hands 54 28.72%
Total: 188 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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LeeMajors
Jan 20, 2005

I've gotta stop fantasizing about Lee Majors...
Ah, one more!


Raere posted:

I've also heard that rapid antigen tests are a reasonable approximator of infectiousness, but not foolproof. I'm not sure how accurate that wisdom is though.

If you’re looking for the biggest reason Covid response has failed in the US, it’s this.

Forget all the chuds and the financial interests. We are two years into the pandemic and there aren’t even clear, science-based government guidelines on when people can responsibly be around others after an infection.

Even conscientious people can’t “do their own research” and get good comprehensive answers.

It’s insane.

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Alterian
Jan 28, 2003

I'm "cleared for work" for Monday as long as I stay improved (I'm at about 75% back. I never had a fever.), but due to childcare issues, I don't think I'll be back until Wednesday and I'll be wearing an N95 the whole time.

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there
Denmark - 3 February 2022

So the Jan 31 spike is dropping off like prior Mondays... I am wondering if the last lingering delta victims are the ones clearing out the ICU and ventilators by simply dying. :(

If this wave was Delta, I just have to think ICU would have been SWAMPED.

New ICU biweekly bed report should be out tomorrow.

Table 1. Actual and Reported Denmark COVID Cases reported per day
pre:
	Actual	Reported	New	Total
Date	Cases	Cases	Reinf.	Hosp.	Hosp.	ICU		Vent		Dead
==============================================================================================
Feb 03	   ---	44,225	2,513	  365	1,116	27 (+1)		12 (-4)		21
Feb 02	18,868	55,001	2,992	  343	1,092	26 (-2)		16 (+2)		20
Feb 01	43,506	45,366	2,515	  337	1,070	28 (-4)		14 (-1)		15
Jan 31	53,289	29,084	1,478	  255	1,028	32 (+1)		15 (+0)		17
Jan 30	33,064	36,196	2,055	  231	  948	31 (-4)		15 (-4)		21
Jan 29	28,305	41,083	2,332	  271	  922	35 (+2)		19 (+0)		17
Jan 28	35,944	53,655	3,263	  305	  967	33 (-4)		19 (-3)		26
Jan 27	39,067	51,033	3,119	  318	  955	37 (-3)		22 (-3)		18
Jan 26	41,695	46,747	3,028	  298	  938	40 (-4)		25 (-3)		14
Jan 25	48,640	43,734	2,856	  318	  918	44 (+1)		28 (-1)		14
Jan 24	53,663	40,348	2,501	  242	  894	43 (+1)		29 (+2)		13
Jan 23	38,017	42,018	2,755	  215	  813	42 (-3)		27 (-1)		12
Jan 22	34,713	36,120	2,285	  220	  781	45 (+1)		28 (-1)		25
Jan 21	37,409	46,831	3,160	  244	  813	44 (-5)		29 (+1)		21
Jan 20	37,420	40,626	2,639	  232	  825	49 (-1)		28 (-2)		15
Jan 19	37,595	38,759	2,285	  248	  821	50 (+1)		30 (+1)		16
Jan 18	40,303	33,493	2,002	  264	  810	49 (-3)		29 (-8)		14
Jan 17	41,486	28,780	1,815	  203	  802	52 (-7)		37 (-4)		11
Jan 16	28,179	26,169	1,614	  159	  734	59 (+0)		41 (+1)		16 
Jan 15	25,188	25,034	1,644	  202	  711	59 (-1)		40 (+4)		16
Jan 14	25,883	23,614	1,519	  215	  757	60 (-4)		36 (-2)		15
Jan 13	23,776	25,751	1,822	  194	  755	64 (-9)		38 (-8)		20
Jan 12	22,575	24,343	1,614	  215	  751	73 (+0)		46 (+0)		25
Jan 11	22,656	22,936	1,459	  181	  754	73 (-1)		46 (-1)		14
Jan 10	23,244	14,414	  941	  156	  777	74 (-3)		47 (-3)		 9 
Jan 09	16,330	19,248	1,327	  126	  723	77 (-1) 	50 (-2) 	14 
Jan 08	13,573	12,588	  984	  161	  730	78 (+0) 	52 (-1) 	28 
Jan 07	14,434	18,261	1,482	  186	  755	78 (-4) 	53 (+4) 	10  
Jan 06	15,417	25,995	2,027	  161	  756	82 (+2) 	47 (-2) 	11  
Jan 05	17,577	28,283	2,083	  204	  784	80 (+3) 	49 (+2) 	15
Jan 04	23,698	23,372	1,701	  229	  792	77 (+4) 	47 (+1) 	15
Jan 03*	25,617	 8,801	  532	  169	  770	73 (-3) 	46 (-4) 	 5
Jan 02  19,906 	 7,550	  404	  163	  709	76 (+3) 	50 (+1) 	15
Jan 01   8,631	20,885	1,049	  139	  647	73 (+0) 	49 (+0) 	 5
Dec 31   9,728	17,605	1,090	  177	  641	73 (-2) 	49 (-1) 	11
Dec 30  19,927	21,403	1,123	  178	  665	75 (-2) 	50 (-2) 	 9
Dec 29  17,245	23,228	1,205	  173	  675	77 (+6) 	52 (+2) 	16
Dec 28  21,955	13,000	  670	  177	  666	71 (+1) 	50 (+4) 	14
Dec 27  22,616	16,164	  639	  115	  608	70 (-1) 	46 (-2) 	 7
Dec 26  10,965	14,844	  644	  123	  579	71 (-2) 	43 (+1) 	13
Dec 25   7,853	10,027	  463	   86	  522	73 (-1) 	44 (+5) 	10
Dec 24   7,054	11,229	  527	  134	  509	74 (+2) 	39 (+1) 	14
Dec 23  12,605	12,487	  613	  158	  541	72 (+6) 	38 (+1)		15
Dec 22  11,591	13,386	  531	  126	  524	66 (-1) 	37 (+2)		14 
Dec 21  13,011	13,558	  501	  121	  526	67 (+1) 	35 (+2)		17
Dec 20  13,288	10,082	  ---	   85	  581	66 (+3) 	33 (-2)		 8
Dec 19  10,231 	 8,212
Dec 18  10,049 	 8,594
Dec 17  10.614	11,194
Dec 16  10,171 	 9,999
Dec 15  10,775 	 8,773	  ---	   96	  508	66 (+0)		43 (-3)		 9
Dec 13  10,294 	 7,799	  ---	   61	  480	64 (-1)		42 (+0)		 9
Dec 12   6,986 	 5,989	  ---	   82	  468	65 (+5)		42 (+6)	 	 9
Dec 08   6,560 	 6,629	  ---	   72	  461	66 (-1)		38 (-1)		 7
Dec 01   4,464 	 5,120	  ---	   88	  439	35 (+1)		35 (+1)		14



Table 2: ICU Bed Usage, Weekly (reported every 2 weeks)
pre:
Date      		Bed Availability
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
17 January  	328 ICU beds, 54 COVID, 66 available
10 January  	331 ICU beds, 72 COVID, 29 available
03 January  	331 ICU beds, 76 COVID, 32 available
27 December	316 ICU beds, 71 COVID, 62 available 
20 December 	317 ICU beds, 60 COVID, 59 available
13 December 	319 ICU beds, 64 COVID, 39 available
06 December 	310 ICU beds, 67 COVID, 10 available <-- squeaky bum time here
29 November	318 ICU beds, 61 COVID, 25 available
Sourcea:
https://www.rkkp.dk/kvalitetsdatabaser/databaser/dansk-intensiv-database/resultater/
https://covid19.ssi.dk/overvagningsdata/download-fil-med-overvaagningdata
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/242ec2acc014456295189631586f1d26
https://covid19.ssi.dk/virusvarianter/delta-pcr

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Fritz the Horse posted:

I'm curious why you ask? Are there particular reasons it should/shouldn't be a stickied thread?

And yes, it was un-stickied nearly three days ago.

Weird! Never mind. I thought it was.

Professor Beetus
Apr 12, 2007

They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

mawarannahr posted:

Weird! Never mind. I thought it was.

To offer a little more transparency, we had a conversation about whether having the Covid thread stickied was still worthwhile the week before the feedback thread. We all pretty much agreed it was time to unsticky, but decided to wait until the feedback thread to see if it came up/what the community thought. Since it got specifically brought up and asked about by at least one poster, we went ahead and unstickied it (along with several other stickied threads).

Bel Shazar
Sep 14, 2012

Woot, managed to get a 4th shot before my trip next week.

Copernic
Sep 16, 2006

...A Champion, who by mettle of his glowing personal charm alone, saved the universe...
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1489262385365852169

cant cook creole bream
Aug 15, 2011
I think Fahrenheit is better for weather

Bel Shazar posted:

Woot, managed to get a 4th shot before my trip next week.

Why? The thread is unstickied. That means Covid is over.

Bel Shazar
Sep 14, 2012

cant cook creole bream posted:

Why? The thread is unstickied. That means Covid is over.

Hoping for superpowers

dwarf74
Sep 2, 2012



Buglord

LeeMajors posted:

If you’re looking for the biggest reason Covid response has failed in the US, it’s this.

Forget all the chuds and the financial interests. We are two years into the pandemic and there aren’t even clear, science-based government guidelines on when people can responsibly be around others after an infection.

Even conscientious people can’t “do their own research” and get good comprehensive answers.

It’s insane.
Well, right now we're going with 10 days, which is - we thought - a science-based guideline.

If it ain't the case, or if there's a better way, it'd be good to know.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

I want to fire Eric Topol into the sun.

By contrast:

https://twitter.com/thedavidcrosby/status/1488946909909688320

cat botherer
Jan 6, 2022

I am interested in most phases of data processing.
This is true of preprints in general. "Peer review" in the form of mysterious reviewers with axes to grind does much less to increase quality than people think. Sure, there's a lot of lovely preprints out there, but there also are a lot of extremely lovely peer-reviewed papers - especially because most scientists have no loving idea of how statistics works.

Preprints are great. Everyone, please put your preprints on Zenodo, ArXiv, etc. You will also get more citations, because people can actually read your loving paper.

edit:

Discendo Vox posted:

I want to fire Eric Topol into the sun.

By contrast:

https://twitter.com/thedavidcrosby/status/1488946909909688320
I don't know who this is. Why don't you like him?

cat botherer fucked around with this message at 18:51 on Feb 3, 2022

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
David Crosby is a famous folk rock musician, member of the Byrds and Crosby Stills and Nash, who famously collaborated several times with Neil Young. What David Crosby and the other members of the group are doing is good. The article Topol is promoting is dogshit.

Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 18:59 on Feb 3, 2022

cat botherer
Jan 6, 2022

I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Discendo Vox posted:

David Crosby is a famous folk rock musician, member of the Byrds and Crosby Stills and Nash, who famously collaborated several times with Neil Young. What David Crosby and the other members of thr group are doing is good. The article Topol is promoting is dogshit.
Ok, but why is that? The results seem to be in line with most research on preprints.

LeeMajors
Jan 20, 2005

I've gotta stop fantasizing about Lee Majors...
Ah, one more!


dwarf74 posted:

Well, right now we're going with 10 days, which is - we thought - a science-based guideline.

If it ain't the case, or if there's a better way, it'd be good to know.

I work in healthcare and was pushed back into work at 5 with ‘improving symptoms.’ No test. I asked the PA why no test and she said “everyone is still testing positive at 5 days.” :stare: that isn’t a problem?

State guidelines deviate from federal. Do I get an outside test? Is it from symptoms or positive test? Which symptoms qualify? When I am infectious or not? Do I quarantine from the end of my daughters quarantine or from the beginning of her symptoms?

It’s been a wild ride. And CDC had released and retracted several guidelines.

There’s been minimal consensus and it’s very frustrating.

MadJackal
Apr 30, 2004

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1489281154549264389?s=21

I went to a Korean BBQ place last Sunday for the first time in about two months of avoiding indoor maskless activities because the numbers in NYC dropped dramatically. I’m still hesitant to resume social/civic life. I like that places in Manhattan have been strict about checking vaccination cards and don’t want that to go away, and I don’t mind wearing an N95 in stores.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

MadJackal posted:

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1489281154549264389?s=21

I went to a Korean BBQ place last Sunday for the first time in about two months of avoiding indoor maskless activities because the numbers in NYC dropped dramatically. I’m still hesitant to resume social/civic life. I like that places in Manhattan have been strict about checking vaccination cards and don’t want that to go away, and I don’t mind wearing an N95 in stores.

Except they haven't as witnessed by Sarah Palin's Typhoid Marying all over the NYC restaurant scene despite being a high profile confirmed positive with covid individual who probably announces who she is whenever she enters an establishment.

Potato Salad
Oct 23, 2014

nobody cares


Discendo Vox posted:

I want to fire Eric Topol into the sun.

Why?

Preprints from good universities with good principal investigators have been pretty much spot on.

Like, past a point it's pretty trivial to draw a line between a preprint that's a literature review from a nobody at a rightwing-funded think tank for consideration at Koch's Firearm Lubrication (And Suddenly T Cells, Too!) Monthly versus stuff out of the absolute top of the T cell research field, at The University of Chicago, for serious consideration in Science and Nature.

Potato Salad fucked around with this message at 19:41 on Feb 3, 2022

cat botherer
Jan 6, 2022

I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Potato Salad posted:

Why?

Preprints from good universities with good principal investigators have been pretty much spot on.

Like, past a point it's pretty trivial to draw a line between a preprint that's a literature review from a nobody at a rightwing-funded think tank for consideration at Koch's Firearm Lubrication (And Suddenly T Cells, Too!) Monthly versus stuff out of the absolute top of the T cell research field, at The University of Chicago, for serious consideration in Science and Nature.
:yeah:

Judging good preprints from bad is no different than judging good ~*~published peer-reviewed~*~ papers from bad. There's no better peer review that having the paper opened up to all peers, rather than a mysterious, shadowy group of reviewers with their own axes to grind.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
No. Pre-publication peer review, when conducted properly, prevents the spread of low-quality or misinformed research. A major problem throughout the pandemic, including in this thread, has been the proliferation and remediation of lovely pre-print research, including for promotional or ideological purposes. This isn't new; there's material on the problem discussed in the resources in the OP. Knowing the source institution is not a substitute for peer review. "the crowd" is not a substitute for review by experts. That there are problems with how different journals currently conduct peer review, and that there is incredible public demand for scientific claims, is not a substitute for the really basic requirements of the critical practice of science.

cat botherer
Jan 6, 2022

I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Discendo Vox posted:

No. Pre-publication peer review, when conducted properly, prevents the spread of low-quality or misinformed research. A major problem throughout the pandemic, including in this thread, has been the proliferation and remediation of lovely pre-print research, including for promotional or ideological purposes. This isn't new; there's material on the problem discussed in the resources in the OP. Knowing the source institution is not a substitute for peer review. "the crowd" is not a substitute for review by experts. That there are problems with how different journals currently conduct peer review, and that there is incredible public demand for scientific claims, is not a substitute for the really basic requirements of the critical practice of science.
This is actually incorrect, according to most empirical research. You just seem to be asserting this based on received wisdom, with no actual evidence. The difference is small, and hardly an endorsement of the current ossified and exclusionary process. Peer review doesn't have to mean journal editors and reviewers, who tend to be established and old. Open preprints and open science allow more to participate, reviewing in the open.

https://researchintegrityjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s41073-020-00101-3

I've also got some very bad news about the quality of peer-reviewed results in many fields, especially medicine.

cat botherer fucked around with this message at 19:56 on Feb 3, 2022

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!

cat botherer posted:

:yeah:

Judging good preprints from bad is no different than judging good ~*~published peer-reviewed~*~ papers from bad. There's no better peer review that having the paper opened up to all peers, rather than a mysterious, shadowy group of reviewers with their own axes to grind.
On what do you base the claim that peer review is conducted by "mysterious, shadowy groups of reviewers with their own axes to grind?"

cat botherer posted:

This is actually incorrect, according to most empirical research. The difference is small, and hardly an endorsement of the current ossified and exclusionary process. Peer review doesn't have to mean journal editors and reviewers, who tend to be established and old. Open preprints and open science allow more to participate, reviewing in the open.

https://researchintegrityjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s41073-020-00101-3

I've also got some very bad news about the quality of peer-reviewed results in many fields, especially medicine.

Worth noting that this study looked at articles from the year 2016 and not during the timespan of COVID pandemic.

cat botherer
Jan 6, 2022

I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Fritz the Horse posted:

On what do you base the claim that peer review is conducted by "mysterious, shadowy groups of reviewers with their own axes to grind?"

Worth noting that this study looked at articles from the year 2016 and not during the timespan of COVID pandemic.
Reviewers are anonymous, and typically older with tenure. That was a rhetorical flourish. "Science advances one funeral at a time." This is not a controversial thing to say. Why would you think preprint quality would suddenly drop because of COVID, despite most all research in many fields over long span of time showing peer review has minimal effect on quality and conclusions? The onus is on you guys here, I've got evidence on my side.

cat botherer fucked around with this message at 20:02 on Feb 3, 2022

Copernic
Sep 16, 2006

...A Champion, who by mettle of his glowing personal charm alone, saved the universe...

cat botherer posted:

This is actually incorrect, according to most empirical research. You just seem to be asserting this based on received wisdom, with no actual evidence. The difference is small, and hardly an endorsement of the current ossified and exclusionary process. Peer review doesn't have to mean journal editors and reviewers, who tend to be established and old. Open preprints and open science allow more to participate, reviewing in the open.

https://researchintegrityjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s41073-020-00101-3

I've also got some very bad news about the quality of peer-reviewed results in many fields, especially medicine.

You're wasting your time. Vox's objection to preprints is ideological. Evidence to the contrary merely reinforces the ideology. You might as well go yell at a dog-eared copy of Manufacturing Consent.

Levitate
Sep 30, 2005

randy newman voice

YOU'VE GOT A LAFRENIÈRE IN ME

cat botherer posted:

Reviewers are anonymous, and typically older with tenure. That was a rhetorical flourish. "Science advances one funeral at a time." This is not a controversial thing to say. Why would you think preprint quality would suddenly drop because of COVID, despite most all research in many fields over long span of time showing peer review has minimal effect on quality and conclusions? The onus is on you guys here, I've got evidence on my side.

You don't really have a lot of evidence for your claims about reviewers, I'd like to see your sources on that beyond hand waving

nomad2020
Jan 30, 2007

For all that it matters to the subject at hand, the reviewers could be literal russet potatoes and not change the conclusion that, speaking towards the evidence presented thus far, the peer review process is of marginal benefit.

UCS Hellmaker
Mar 29, 2008
Toilet Rascal
Considering we had articles.posted in here such as the one that covid causes your brain to shrink, that it causes Parkinson's, that it causes the body to melt, that it is the cause of my left pinky becoming sentient and trying to murder me. Peer review is important, also not reading jackshit on Twitter.

And the guys results on covid papers? 82 percent passed validity after further review. That's not a great number, and there's a reason we use peer review.

nomad2020
Jan 30, 2007

Viruses have been implicated with Alzheimer’s (brain shrink) and Parkinson’s, so yea seems probable.

E: Downgraded risk assessment from likely to probable.

nomad2020 fucked around with this message at 20:19 on Feb 3, 2022

Professor Beetus
Apr 12, 2007

They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

cat botherer posted:

Reviewers are anonymous, and typically older with tenure. That was a rhetorical flourish. "Science advances one funeral at a time." This is not a controversial thing to say. Why would you think preprint quality would suddenly drop because of COVID, despite most all research in many fields over long span of time showing peer review has minimal effect on quality and conclusions? The onus is on you guys here, I've got evidence on my side.

nomad2020 posted:

For all that it matters to the subject at hand, the reviewers could be literal russet potatoes and not change the conclusion that, speaking towards the evidence presented thus far, the peer review process is of marginal benefit.

Could we perhaps see some sources on how meaningless peer review is or are we supposed to just take your word that it is self-evident? What evidence?

Discendo Vox posted:

I want to fire Eric Topol into the sun.

By contrast:

https://twitter.com/thedavidcrosby/status/1488946909909688320

Conversely, a tweet by *checks notes* apparently noted Covid and scientific research authority David Crosby is not a rebuttal of the article about pre-prints, and if you have specific arguments about why that article is bad beyond "Eric Topol bad" I'd like to see them.

nomad2020 posted:

Viruses have been implicated with Alzheimer’s (brain shrink) and Parkinson’s, so yea seems probable.

E: Downgraded risk assessment from likely to probable.

The specific studies that UCS Hellmaker mentioned show nothing of the sort, and often included closing summaries from their researchers saying as much. Didn't stop twitter doctors from running with sensational claims about them, such as "young healthy people getting parkinson's from covid" or "airborne aids," neither of which are even close to what the studies showed in reality.

Professor Beetus fucked around with this message at 20:23 on Feb 3, 2022

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

cat botherer posted:

This is actually incorrect, according to most empirical research. The difference is small, and hardly an endorsement of the current ossified and exclusionary process. Peer review doesn't have to mean journal editors and reviewers, who tend to be established and old. Open preprints and open science allow more to participate, reviewing in the open.

https://researchintegrityjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s41073-020-00101-3

I've also got some very bad news about the quality of peer-reviewed results in many fields, especially medicine.

I already said that defects in the current implementation of peer review are not grounds to justify its rejection. This study does not in any way address the incentive and downstream issues that encourage and elicit harm from the circumvention of peer review.

With that out of the way, let's also cover your evidence.

  • The study is by "voluntary ambassadors" for an organization promoting the use of preprints; not coincidentally, the article being promoted in the Economist article is also from out of the same group.
  • Your own linked study states that peer-reviewed publication is associated with an improvement in quality.
  • The objective metrics used in the study do not capture issues of conclusion support, validity, or prior connection with the field; instead they are the bare minimums of statistical reporting and legal compliance. Even the subjective metrics don't address more than how easy it was to find info from the objective measures, and whether the title and abstract reflected the findings. It's literally not evaluating the quality of the research, or even the logic of the reporting, just that it reported, for example, sample size and animal model.
  • The examples of effects of peer review heavily include the fact that research in the bioArxiv failed to disclose conflicts of interest.

The actual article being promoted in the Economist itself states that as the pandemic has massively increased the spread of preprint research, including its abuse, and, rather than any evidence that its effects have been good, suggests that instead scientists should perform a substitute peer review on twitter. The actual discussion section of the article is saying "wow, it looks like there needs to be something like peer review for these papers, gosh, too bad it's not happening after they're in the wild and spreading misinformation!

Again, the fact that current peer review policies are not universally strong means that they should be strengthened, not undone. Even the paper does not draw the conclusion that you do.

Professor Beetus posted:

Conversely, a tweet by *checks notes* apparently noted Covid and scientific research authority David Crosby is not a rebuttal of the article about pre-prints, and if you have specific arguments about why that article is bad beyond "Eric Topol bad" I'd like to see them.

The Crosby tweet was just a separate thing that has happened.

Professor Beetus posted:

The specific studies that UCS Hellmaker mentioned show nothing of the sort, and often included closing summaries from their researchers saying as much. Didn't stop twitter doctors from running with sensational claims about them, such as "young healthy people getting parkinson's from covid" or "airborne aids," neither of which are even close to what the studies showed in reality.

There's a whole genre of simultaneously making a claim or implication in an article, then having a disclaimer further down, because it allows the article to be spread and repeated without the disclaimer.

Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 20:29 on Feb 3, 2022

cat botherer
Jan 6, 2022

I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Levitate posted:

You don't really have a lot of evidence for your claims about reviewers, I'd like to see your sources on that beyond hand waving

My claims about reviewers are largely self-evident:
(a) They are anonymous
(b) They are more likely to be older, white, male, straight, and have tenure. This is because reviewers are usually established people in their field, and thus tend to be older and less diverse just due to the demographics of older faculty.
(c) They are not immune to biases just because they are magic science people. They can be biased against ideas that conflict with their research.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/A:1016082229411
https://www.nature.com/articles/541455a
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/232868.full.pdf


Discendo Vox posted:

I already said that defects in the current implementation of peer review are not grounds to justify its rejection. This study does not in any way address the incentive and downstream issues that encourage and elicit harm from the circumvention of peer review.

With that out of the way, let's also cover your evidence.

  • The study is by "voluntary ambassadors" for an organization promoting the use of preprints; not coincidentally, the article being promoted in the Economist article is also from out of the same group.
  • Your own linked study states that peer-reviewed publication is associated with an improvement in quality.
  • The objective metrics used in the study do not capture issues of conclusion support, validity, or prior connection with the field; instead they are the bare minimums of statistical reporting and legal compliance. Even the subjective metrics don't address more than how easy it was to find info from the objective measures, and whether the title and abstract reflected the findings. It's literally not evaluating the quality of the research, or even the logic of the reporting, just that it reported, for example, sample size and animal model.
  • The examples of effects of peer review heavily include the fact that research in the bioArxiv failed to disclose conflicts of interest.

The actual article being promoted in the Economist itself states that as the pandemic has massively increased the spread of preprint research, including its abuse, and, rather than any evidence that its effects have been good, suggests that instead scientists should perform a substitute peer review on twitter. The actual discussion section of the article is saying "wow, it looks like there needs to be something like peer review for these papers, gosh, too bad it's not happening after they're in the wild and spreading misinformation!

Again, the fact that current peer review policies are not universally strong means that they should be strengthened, not undone. Even the paper does not draw the conclusion that you do.

The Crosby tweet was just a separate thing that has happened.

There's a whole genre of simultaneously making a claim or implication in an article, then having a disclaimer further down, because it allows the article to be spread and repeated without the disclaimer.
Again, you're just asserting stuff which is contrary to the consensus among science of science researchers. It doesn't matter that a specific article says this or that. What matters is the consensus of actual evidence, and it's not looking great for traditional peer review.

cat botherer fucked around with this message at 20:32 on Feb 3, 2022

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Professor Beetus posted:



The specific studies that UCS Hellmaker mentioned show nothing of the sort, and often included closing summaries from their researchers saying as much. Didn't stop twitter doctors from running with sensational claims about them, such as "young healthy people getting parkinson's from covid" or "airborne aids," neither of which are even close to what the studies showed in reality.

I think it's important to distinguish between limitations/flaws/whatever of peer review in academia and the issue of reporting on those papers to the general public, which often turns their conclusions into far more definitive ones than if the paper was read by an expert.

nomad2020
Jan 30, 2007

I don’t have access to the uni library currently to give proper citation, but I’d point people towards the replication crisis as my evidence that the peer review industry is not above scrutiny.

cat botherer
Jan 6, 2022

I am interested in most phases of data processing.

nomad2020 posted:

I don’t have access to the uni library currently to give proper citation, but I’d point people towards the replication crisis as my evidence.
That's the best argument for preprints. You can even criticize and review them!

Re: the replication crisis, the lack of open review is a big problem for catching statistical issues. Most scientists are poor statisticians at best, so reviewers are poor at catching statistical errors because they are in the monoculture of whatever field they are in.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/01/what-proportion-of-cancer-studies-are-reliable/513485/

quote:

In 2011, Bayer Healthcare said that its in-house scientists could only validate 25 percent of basic studies in cancer and other conditions. (Drug companies routinely do such checks so they can use the information in those studies as a starting point for developing new drugs.) A year later, Glenn Begley and Lee Ellis from Amgen said that the firm could only confirm the findings in 6 out of 53 landmark cancer papers—just 11 percent. Perhaps, they wrote, that might explain why “our ability to translate cancer research to clinical success has been remarkably low.”

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03691-0

Precambrian Video Games
Aug 19, 2002



You have to admit it's hilarious to post an article advocating open and immediate access to research results that's behind a paywall, and published in a rag famous for not having bylines or really much in the way of any actual subject expertise on their staff.

Fritz the Horse posted:

Worth noting that this study looked at articles from the year 2016 and not during the timespan of COVID pandemic.

Also:

quote:

Although we cannot be sure that the first preprint version had not undergone peer review before its publication, the most common practice seems to be to post a preprint before or at the moment of submission to a peer-reviewed journal [37].

Is that actually true? The cited paper's abstract says:

quote:

A bioRxiv user survey found that 42% of authors post their preprints prior to journal submission whereas 37% post concurrently with journal submission.

I don't follow bioRxiv but in (astro)physics this varies a lot by subfield. Many papers are submitted to arXiv only after the first review or formal acceptance, and in the latter case of course there's next to no material change in the content of the paper - all that's left is for the copy editor to mainly check formatting (and in my experience, occasionally gently caress something up or not apply changes correctly).

cat botherer posted:

This is actually incorrect, according to most empirical research. You just seem to be asserting this based on received wisdom, with no actual evidence. The difference is small, and hardly an endorsement of the current ossified and exclusionary process. Peer review doesn't have to mean journal editors and reviewers, who tend to be established and old. Open preprints and open science allow more to participate, reviewing in the open.

https://researchintegrityjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s41073-020-00101-3

I've also got some very bad news about the quality of peer-reviewed results in many fields, especially medicine.

While there are certainly issues with peer review in most fields (but again, practices vary by subfield and journal), what are you actually advocating here? Reform of the peer review process and predatory journal's practices? Sure. Posting all papers to arXiv upon submission to a journal? Not unreasonable; many people already do that anyway. Submitting preprints prior to submitting to an actual journal? Ehhhh, not so much. Sometimes you get valuable feedback from someone who doesn't end up actually reviewing the paper, but most of the time it's just "you should cite me more", with varying degrees of justification. Relying on preprints that may or may not actually make it into a reputable journal, well, even less so.

That paper you cite found a larger difference in the quality of articles from the random samples than the paired one, by the way, which seems to imply that the lower quality preprints were either rejected or spent more time in limbo filtering through journal tiers. I'm not convinced that it actually suggest that peer review is largely useless, so much as that most of the submissions to bioRxiv are reasonable results by credible researchers that are eventually going to be accepted without major changes to the paper's conclusions. Whether that means one should open the bloodgates for anyone to quickly publish time-sensitive results for something like COVID, where there are clear incentives to publish more controversial results than for a randomly-selected bioRxiv topic, well...

Potato Salad posted:

... for serious consideration in Science and Nature.

Again, I don't know about biology, but in physics, Nature has a reputation for favouring flashy and/or noteworthy results, with a little less emphasis on whether they're actually correct or robust.

cat botherer posted:

That's the best argument for preprints. You can even criticize and review them!

Re: the replication crisis, the lack of open review is a big problem for catching statistical issues. Most scientists are poor statisticians at best, so reviewers are poor at catching statistical errors because they are in the monoculture of whatever field they are in.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/01/what-proportion-of-cancer-studies-are-reliable/513485/

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03691-0

Okay? This seems to be arguing for stricter peer review, whether that happens only or not. I'm not sure how it leads to a broader endorsement of pre-prints, though?

Precambrian Video Games fucked around with this message at 20:40 on Feb 3, 2022

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

LeeMajors posted:

If you’re looking for the biggest reason Covid response has failed in the US, it’s this.

Forget all the chuds and the financial interests. We are two years into the pandemic and there aren’t even clear, science-based government guidelines on when people can responsibly be around others after an infection.

Even conscientious people can’t “do their own research” and get good comprehensive answers.

It’s insane.

Huh? Here are the CDC guidelines

quote:

  • You can end isolation after 5 full days if you are fever-free for 24 hours without the use of fever-reducing medication and your other symptoms have improved (Loss of taste and smell may persist for weeks or months after recovery and need not delay the end of isolation​).
  • You should continue to wear a well-fitting mask around others at home and in public for 5 additional days (day 6 through day 10) after the end of your 5-day isolation period. If you are unable to wear a mask when around others, you should continue to isolate for a full 10 days. Avoid people who are immunocompromised or at high risk for severe disease, and nursing homes and other high-risk settings, until after at least 10 days.
  • If you continue to have fever or your other symptoms have not improved after 5 days of isolation, you should wait to end your isolation until you are fever-free for 24 hours without the use of fever-reducing medication and your other symptoms have improved. Continue to wear a well-fitting mask. Contact your healthcare provider if you have questions.
  • See additional information about travel. [wait 10 days]
  • Do not go to places where you are unable to wear a mask, such as restaurants and some gyms, and avoid eating around others at home and at work until a full 10 days after your first day of symptoms.

It's pretty straightforward and "science based" doesn't mean you personally agree with it (nor does it mean the guideline is designed so that if 100% of people adhere, nobody leaving isolation will ever be infectious).

A bigger problem is people not isolating after a positive test (or when symptomatic and not tested). There are both possible Trump and non Trump reasons for that.

UCS Hellmaker
Mar 29, 2008
Toilet Rascal

cat botherer posted:

My claims about reviewers are largely self-evident:
(a) They are anonymous
(b) They are more likely to be older, white, male, straight, and have tenure. This is because reviewers are usually established people in their field, and thus tend to be older and less diverse just due to the demographics of older faculty.
(c) They are not immune to biases just because they are magic science people. They can be biased against ideas that conflict with their research.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/A:1016082229411
https://www.nature.com/articles/541455a
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/232868.full.pdf

Again, you're just asserting stuff which is contrary to the consensus among science of science researchers. It doesn't matter that a specific article says this or that. What matters is the consensus of actual evidence, and it's not looking great for traditional peer review.

None of this is evidence or showing that peer review is flawed in a way that helps to prevent absolute goddamn poo poo from being released then spread through bad faith. Ivermectin and other covid "cures" and tons of other flash in the pan stuff came from preprints, and peer review exists in order not to gatekeep, but to help ensure that articles arent filled with literaly garbage pushing by bad faith actors trying to push their pet project or actually falsified data.

cat botherer
Jan 6, 2022

I am interested in most phases of data processing.

eXXon posted:

While there are certainly issues with peer review in most fields (but again, practices vary by subfield and journal), what are you actually advocating here? Reform of the peer review process and predatory journal's practices? Sure. Posting all papers to arXiv upon submission to a journal? Not unreasonable; many people already do that anyway. Submitting preprints prior to submitting to an actual journal? Ehhhh, not so much. Sometimes you get valuable feedback from someone who doesn't end up actually reviewing the paper, but most of the time it's just "you should cite me more", with varying degrees of justification. Relying on preprints that may or may not actually make it into a reputable journal, well, even less so.
The thing is that the empirical evidence shows that peer review rarely changes major conclusions, etc, but is also poor at its stated purpose of improving results. Anyone can submit a paper to a journal, so there's no real quality benefit there, in itself.

The journal peer review process, in my opinion, is already redundant. Science is done dialectically through citations, etc. That and pre-existing networks of mutual trust establishes credibility independently of the review process. If people like your paper, they will cite it and its ideas will be more influential. One can also make new versions in response to criticism. The people reading your paper should largely be people in your field - drawn from the same population that would be reviewing your paper.

UCS Hellmaker posted:

None of this is evidence or showing that peer review is flawed in a way that helps to prevent absolute goddamn poo poo from being released then spread through bad faith. Ivermectin and other covid "cures" and tons of other flash in the pan stuff came from preprints, and peer review exists in order not to gatekeep, but to help ensure that articles arent filled with literaly garbage pushing by bad faith actors trying to push their pet project or actually falsified data.
Experts can already see that those preprints are trash. There's no magic that happens to divine good science when a scientist puts on their reviewer hat.

UCS Hellmaker
Mar 29, 2008
Toilet Rascal

cat botherer posted:

That's the best argument for preprints. You can even criticize and review them!

Re: the replication crisis, the lack of open review is a big problem for catching statistical issues. Most scientists are poor statisticians at best, so reviewers are poor at catching statistical errors because they are in the monoculture of whatever field they are in.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/01/what-proportion-of-cancer-studies-are-reliable/513485/

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03691-0

Peer review EXISTS so that people that work in the field can gatekeep things for obvious flaws, and expecting laypeople to serve as the stewards of what's correct is idiotic in a way that only a twitter injector believes. I fully do not expect lay people to understand the fundamentals of a graduate or post doc paper, and we actively see it with the garbage that the news and twitter makes sensational because they read one line they understand and take it as gospel. Your argument is flawed, and filled with the idea that peerreview is stopping the true truth from being released in order to hide things, and you sincerely need to talk to people that actually have gone through the process.

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Potato Salad
Oct 23, 2014

nobody cares


Discendo Vox posted:

That there are problems with how different journals currently conduct peer review, and that there is incredible public demand for scientific claims

That's .... exactly why reputation, institutional quality control, and funding are so important, as I indicated.

You're coming across like somebody who is bitter and/or has an ax to grind with people you have successfully sought, interpreted, justified their use of, and were eventually vindicated for utilizing information from extremely high quality preprints from principal investigators at the top of their fields at high-grade institutions. If that's not actually true and you just have a very sharp aversion to preprints, that's understandable if you are an outsider to research, but do please realize that there is not a genuine procedural or scientific quality issue here, especially for the purposes of effortposting on a dead gay comedy form.

cat botherer posted:

That's the best argument for preprints. You can even criticize and review them!

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