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vyelkin posted:It also failed because MAS is a legitimately popular and activist political movement with strong support from Bolivia's workers, which meant that even cut off from all the levers of institutional power they could still mobilize enough popular support to shut down the entire economy unless Anez ceded power. There's not much you can do, even with the police and military on your side, when most of the country refuses to work and even shooting them doesn't make them start again. well yes but that’s mainly because they never tried to cut them off from that. if your going to do a coup you need to undercut the old power structure and not only did they not do that they actively reinforced it by making sticking with MAS really their only choice. if you want to do a coup taking office is nice but it’s not really enough. Anez never really had a chance unless the US planned to straight up occupy.
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Feb 4, 2022 15:18
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CharlestheHammer posted:well yes but that’s mainly because they never tried to cut them off from that. if your going to do a coup you need to undercut the old power structure and not only did they not do that they actively reinforced it by making sticking with MAS really their only choice. this framing of "it failed because the coup people did the coup wrong" still assumes that Anez and the coup leaders were the only ones with agency in the situation and their mistakes failed to destroy MAS, instead of giving agency to MAS leaders and the Bolivian people themselves for intentionally using their power to isolate and squeeze the coup regime until it had to give in sometimes the left wins because the left is competent and can effectively enact political change, not because the right was too incompetent at violence. That's the kind of thing we should learn from and take inspiration from, instead of just hoping that the right will be incompetent
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Feb 4, 2022 15:25
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Yeah, it all comes from liberal 'bumbling empire theory.'
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Feb 4, 2022 15:29
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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:Yeah, it all comes from liberal 'bumbling empire theory.' The US really likes to "bumble" into countries and "trip on it's own dick" causing the deaths of millions. Just a big oopsie.
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Feb 4, 2022 15:30
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I don’t know what would have happened, maybe MAS would have won out in the end either way, but we don’t live in that world so speculation is pointless They should be careful as while Us coups aren’t what they used to be. I assume their next attempt won’t make these extremely basic mistakes
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Feb 4, 2022 15:30
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if you just want a feel good story I guess but meh that doesn’t do or accomplish anything
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Feb 4, 2022 15:33
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Can be both, but dumber and more brutal fascists than Anez have successfully maintained power.
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Feb 4, 2022 15:39
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there was also the massively successful operation get Evo the gently caress out, action movie plot poo poo with Fernandez and AMLO's help. even moderate center-left blips on the map help out massivelyCharlestheHammer posted:I assume their next attempt won’t make these extremely basic mistakes why would you assume that? lovely dying empires tend to deteriorate, not improve
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Feb 4, 2022 15:41
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Ghost Leviathan posted:Can be both, but dumber and more brutal fascists than Anez have successfully maintained power. Yeah, like the entire history of Brazil shows.
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Feb 4, 2022 15:43
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bagual posted:
Most CIA plots are dumb as gently caress. They just have infinite retries
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Feb 4, 2022 15:53
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ZearothK posted:Yeah, like the entire history of Brazil shows. not entirely because, well, if there's one thing that a comprador class fears is a tyrant in the behalf of the people. the most successful model for brazilian politics is, and I speak that as a far-left guy, Vargas
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Feb 4, 2022 15:55
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genericnick posted:Most CIA plots are dumb as gently caress. They just have infinite retries infinite money cheat is a loving annoyance
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Feb 4, 2022 15:56
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CharlestheHammer posted:if you just want a feel good story I guess but meh that doesn’t do or accomplish anything lol that's exactly my point. MAS won because they didn't rely on the opposition loving up, they actually had a successful political organization built up over many years that was resilient enough to survive the decapitation of its leadership and the seizure of all the levers of state power. That's what we have to learn, that the left needs to build that kind of capacity if it wants to win, not that we should just hope that the CIA fucks up coups and the fascists they install are incompetent. It's not a feel good story, it's a call to action to build resilient leftist movements because even in the face of a murderous right-wing coup, a popular and resilient leftist movement can still win.
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Feb 4, 2022 15:56
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dead gay comedy forums posted:not entirely because, well, if there's one thing that a comprador class fears is a tyrant in the behalf of the people. the most successful model for brazilian politics is, and I speak that as a far-left guy, Vargas Could you elaborate on this?
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Feb 4, 2022 16:10
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mortons stork posted:Could you elaborate on this? three semesters of Brazilian political economy coming right up so, Getúlio Vargas was president of Brazil from 1930-45 and from 51-54. As a political figure, he is perhaps the most anomalous one in our history. In 1930, he seized power thanks to a populist uprising against the early republican system, which among other things, favored the coffee-exporting economies of the states of Minas Gerais and São Paulo. During his years as president-dictator, he came up with the most extensive project of both state and national construction and development that Brazil ever had, especially in federal terms. The largest economic enterprises in Brazilian history were started in his government and as public companies. Along with that, a vast social development initiative was carried out especially through laborism, by using labor rights and standards as a form to uplift the masses, which made him "pai dos pobres" (father of the poor) the usual way to refer to a guy like this would be "populist authoritarian", but it doesn't cut it like that for him. In my own read, Vargas would be a very rare, perhaps unique type of political figure: an utopian socialist tyrant. He had Fourier and Saint-Simon as his bedtime reads often. He, against what most utopian socialists believe, actually levied a movement to seize power. He was an authoritarian. He used that authority towards socio-economic development with success. And he tripped upon himself hard when he tried to act as a napoleonic power in politics, above all ideological concern. When he decided to crack down on socialists and communists, he lost a very significant part of his support, which until then he could count upon to defend himself against liberals and conservatives had he simply accepted them as a force that would be critical of him but defensive of his social and economic policies, he wouldn't have to worry about much and would probably die of old age as president
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Feb 4, 2022 17:05
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genericnick posted:Most CIA plots are dumb as gently caress. They just have infinite retries See: assassination attempts in Cuba
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Feb 4, 2022 17:13
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dead gay comedy forums posted:had he simply accepted them as a force that would be critical of him but defensive of his social and economic policies, he wouldn't have to worry about much and would probably die of old age as president You could probably say this about a lot of leaders, but this especially comes to mind. Especially given the people who suck up to you all the time are not the ones you can trust.
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Feb 4, 2022 17:28
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dead gay comedy forums posted:the usual way to refer to a guy like this would be "populist authoritarian", but it doesn't cut it like that for him. In my own read, Vargas would be a very rare, perhaps unique type of political figure: an utopian socialist tyrant. He had Fourier and Saint-Simon as his bedtime reads often. He, against what most utopian socialists believe, actually levied a movement to seize power. He was an authoritarian. He used that authority towards socio-economic development with success. And he tripped upon himself hard when he tried to act as a napoleonic power in politics, above all ideological concern. When he decided to crack down on socialists and communists, he lost a very significant part of his support, which until then he could count upon to defend himself against liberals and conservatives Sounds a lot like Huey Long or Perón (although there's a lot about Perón's legacy that I suspect is exaggerated by his supporters and detractors in different ways)
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Feb 4, 2022 17:29
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dead gay comedy forums posted:not entirely because, well, if there's one thing that a comprador class fears is a tyrant in the behalf of the people. the most successful model for brazilian politics is, and I speak that as a far-left guy, Vargas Yeah, fair point.
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Feb 4, 2022 18:16
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dead gay comedy forums posted:three semesters of Brazilian political economy coming right up thank you, this is fascinating to read. as someone who is ignorant of all but the broadest strokes of Brazilian history, I definitely could not have predicted that someone who I only ever saw mentioned briefly and in the same breath as other military dictators of Brazil, could have instead promoted such a weird, almost FDR-like mix of policies (labor rights, infrastructure development but also anticommunism?) I wonder what his political legacy is like in contemporary Brazil?
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Feb 4, 2022 18:39
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with regards to Bolivia, MAS was able to recognize after the coup how they had lost some support from parts of their base, and they reconnected and strengthened the coalition while the coup government was in power. It wasn't a huge fall in support prior to the coup, they still easily won that election, but the fascists and coup forces dominating on the street even prior to the military and police betrayal shows that some things needed correcting. This isn't even a criticism of MAS, being able to adapt to overcome difficulties like that is impressive. Especially under the intense repression they facing after the coup.
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Feb 4, 2022 18:56
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mortons stork posted:thank you, this is fascinating to read. as someone who is ignorant of all but the broadest strokes of Brazilian history, I definitely could not have predicted that someone who I only ever saw mentioned briefly and in the same breath as other military dictators of Brazil, could have instead promoted such a weird, almost FDR-like mix of policies (labor rights, infrastructure development but also anticommunism?) you're welcome! so, he went far and beyond FDR and the New Deal, to be quite honest. We are talking more "Peasants into Frenchmen" mixed with almost Soviet levels of economic direction. Almost every single economic activity of note in the country had a government organization created to manage it. For example, to harness the mineral wealth of the greater hinterland beginning from northern Minas Gerais, Vale do Rio Doce was created, providing an incredibly important channel for cheap iron, manganese and bauxite to the benefit of the USA (US Steel/Bethlehem got record profit marks once FDR and Vargas signed accords). The allies needed rubber? Brazil had it. To increase the exports to what the Allies needed per diplomatic treaty, a massive settlement program was organized to bring people from the Northeastern hinterland (sertões) into the Brazilian North, i.e. the Amazon. The Amazonian Navigation Service, the Superintendency for the Provision of the Amazonian Valley, the Special Public Health Service and more were created because of that, in what was a typical Vargas move: using a matter of diplomacy and trade as a pretext to liberals and conservatives ("to honor our commitments to our friends in Washington" etc), he would actually seize the opportunity to effect far-reaching structural programs. However, I chose this example in specific because it also demonstrates Vargas' sudden bouts of timidity to actually go all the way against locally entrenched power structures: while the federal actions had means and capability, many local powerbrokers (caudillos, coronéis, etc) did abominable poo poo like putting the migrants into effectively debt slavery and what not, while leaving many to die to the Amazonian attrition. The thing is that Vargas himself was, ultimately, a landowner from Rio Grande do Sul, a state with a very strong caudillo culture, and thus a man of such politics. He suffered from the disconnect that utopian socialists have of their policies being objectively better but being incapable of carrying them full effort because it is an attack to the prevalent structure as for his legacy, well, our labor laws descend from his government. Every single major public company was either created or affected by that, too: Petrobras was created to discover oil and uphold a state monopoly to the country's benefit. The first major organized industrial effort was made under his government, etc. The biggest road and rail building efforts also happened under him. Most contemporary federal institutions were created during that time as well, so on and on
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Feb 4, 2022 22:10
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https://twitter.com/KawsachunNews/status/1488556947188203523
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Feb 5, 2022 03:00
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https://mobile.twitter.com/SDonziger/status/1489361228413685778
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Feb 5, 2022 18:30
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Dreylad posted:Sounds a lot like Huey Long or Perón (although there's a lot about Perón's legacy that I suspect is exaggerated by his supporters and detractors in different ways) My Prof in Latin American History had a whole unit that put Vargas, Peron, and Cardenas together as populists who weren't easily defined into left or right wing politics. He said that he'd also put FDR in there if he was to include an American politician but Long is probably a better answer. At least when Peron came in for his second stint the Leftist and Rightist Peronists started killing each other. The Leftists in particular remind me of American Socialists who deluded themselves into thinking Bernie was going to bring the onset of a revolution. Edit: I am terrible at grammar ToxicAcne has issued a correction as of 20:30 on Feb 5, 2022 |
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Feb 5, 2022 19:41
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Pacho posted:The latest crisis happened because the Interior Minister (Avelino Guillen, former public attorney who put Fujimori behind bars and has a spotless reputation) accused the high officers of the PNP (National Police) of corruption and opposed some reshuffling of officers (and wanted to promote some other officers). Since that was in the hands of the president and the president said and did jack poo poo about it, Avelino Guillen took it as a sign that the president was supporting the cop brass and sent a letter of resignation. Castillo then said "porque no los dos" and accepted the letter of resignation AND fired the Police General which precipitated most factions to be mad at him and the rest of the Cabinet, who stood by Guillén, to resign as well Isn't the legislature controlled by the opposition as well? Seems like a recipe for success.
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Feb 5, 2022 19:51
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ToxicAcne posted:My Prof in Latin American History had a whole unit in University had a whole unit that put Vargas, Peron, and Cardenas together as populists who weren't easily defined into left or right wing politics. He said that he'd also put FDR in there if he was to include an American politician but Long is probably a better answer. Not an expert on Mexpolitics, but Cárdenas seems like a weird one to throw in with that crowd since even though there were some unorthodox aspects to his administration, those were usually in response to the weird political landscape that Calles left behind (Calles would be a much better fit in the "odd populist" team since the US were initially terrified of his pro-Soviet positions and by the time Cárdenas got rid of him he was flirting with fascism, but his politics in general were all over the place), and overall he seems to be by far the most 'proper' left out of all the post-revolution (or pre-revolution, while we're at it) Mexican presidents. Though I guess the PRI as a whole does fit the bill, so 
SexyBlindfold has issued a correction as of 20:14 on Feb 5, 2022 |
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Feb 5, 2022 20:05
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ToxicAcne posted:My Prof in Latin American History had a whole unit that put Vargas, Peron, and Cardenas together as populists who weren't easily defined into left or right wing politics. He said that he'd also put FDR in there if he was to include an American politician but Long is probably a better answer. Left Wing Peronists at least had a history of tangible benefits they got from him, so it's not like they were completely delusional - they just overestimated their own leverage over him.
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Feb 5, 2022 23:37
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https://twitter.com/CatholicClod/status/1490094705937371139
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Feb 6, 2022 06:41
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incredible that incandescents are still legally available
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Feb 6, 2022 07:46
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how did ross douthat become president of chile
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Feb 6, 2022 09:58
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dead gay comedy forums posted:you're welcome! Super interesting. Seems like many of the conquests that in Europe had to be fought for by socialist movements were actually victories by a different sort of nationalist, 'benevolent' dictator of sorts? That's gotta have a huge influence on how these efforts of quite literal nation building are perceived. I wonder how Vargas himself is perceived after reading this. Has there been a reckoning with this part of Brazilian history? or is it something that most would prefer to forget? Do political parties claim something of his legacy for themselves?
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Feb 6, 2022 10:24
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i say swears online posted:incredible that incandescents are still legally available listen jack, this cake isn't going to easy bake itself
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Feb 6, 2022 16:50
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mortons stork posted:Super interesting. Seems like many of the conquests that in Europe had to be fought for by socialist movements were actually victories by a different sort of nationalist, 'benevolent' dictator of sorts? That's gotta have a huge influence on how these efforts of quite literal nation building are perceived. I think Vargas is perhaps the most circumstantial of the big three examples (Cárdenas, Perón, Vargas). Also, it's not coincidence that they are representatives of the three major powers of Latin America: Mexico, Argentina, Brazil. Getting into the thick of it requires some analysis, which I'll try do it briefly. The interwar period was, to put it bluntly, the biggest structural break and opportunity that Latin American economies had in ever. As independent but secondary economies, the complete shortage of industrial goods naturally drove the most enterprising political factions into economic development policies that, well, worked. Brazil diverges from the rest here because it already had a modest degree of such policy, thanks to the late imperial cabinet having industrialists and the influence of foreign investors from the UK and USA. It gets interesting when the winds of the Revolution get here, brought by immigrants and refugees, which finds an incredibly favorable environment to spread around. Revolutionary socialism finds in Latin America a deeply fertile ground; in Brazil, with slavery abolished only in 1888, a significant parcel of former slaves or those born in once-enslaved families saw in revolution the cause to correct that injustice. For the deeply conservative, colonial legacy of the elites of the continent, it was clear how incredibly threatening this scenario became: not only there was a dramatic economic displacement going on, but also a tremendous, totally novel political surge specifically aimed at destroying that establishment. Of course, Europe had another very fashionable thing going on: fascism. This is where the magic trick happens, at least according to some of the best Latin American historians. The cultural influence of Europe in Latin America is undeniable, but when world war one cuts off the usual economic arrangement, Latin America starts to redevelop itself and, having far more resources than the old continent, sorta rediscovers itself in material terms and capabilities. This creates a new political dynamic, with a new form of political thought by the newer generation of the caudillo elite raised in modernity. In fascism, they see the element of imposition of authority that was for ever necessary in Latin America because of imperialism and colonialism, which also allows them to persuade the conservative and reactionary elements of society by the affirmation of strength. This aspect ties extremely well to the historical practice of the caudillos since, well, ever. But, when the Great Depression happens, it confirms to this class that, to ensure this "more independent" economic position, liberalism is simply too limited. Moreover, national development and national sovereignty ultimately require social development, which is the other common thread that ties those leaders together. All of them truly believed in social policy as fundamental drivers of national development, which tied together with the rising socialist/communist movements. Using laborism as a friendlier label, which also allowed them to work with the Church and other traditional political base, many socialist politics were employed in order to develop a national industrial base and, eventually, attempt to build their countries into something actually modern. What they have in common is that they had, for the first time in the history of the continent, achieved some success in that goal. (gonna continue in the next post and to talk specifically about vargas' legacy)
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Feb 6, 2022 18:47
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mortons stork posted:I wonder how Vargas himself is perceived after reading this. Has there been a reckoning with this part of Brazilian history? or is it something that most would prefer to forget? Do political parties claim something of his legacy for themselves? There has. Almost every major city in Brazil has a "Getúlio Vargas Avenue". Older Brazilians, even conservative ones, tend strongly to rate Getúlio as more favorable than the military junta. Vargas-as-a-dictator is more seen as somebody who was truly engaged with improving the welfare for all Brazilians, "and was led to suicide" through a political ploy by elite liberal/conservative factions, with the help of the first movements of influence from the USA into subduing Latin America once more. During the junta years, his popularity only increased; being a former military officer, the dictatorship was very loathe to denounce Vargas' legacy, which opened them wide to attacks from a populist (in the good way) angle. Nowadays he seems to me to be far more appreciated than in the 60s-80s, but that's just an opinion, of course. PTB (the Labor Party of Brazil) was the party of Vargas but nowadays they are just a rump force whose claim to that legacy means little to nothing, to be honest. The socialist parties of Brazil (PDT/PSB) during the leadership of their best (Brizola/Arraes) built upon Vargas' laborism and its political narrative to push their own socialist politics, with great local success, but modest in the national level.
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Feb 6, 2022 19:05
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i say swears online posted:incredible that incandescents are still legally available 
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Feb 6, 2022 19:39
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Hedenius posted:I was going to ask where you live but I think a visit to Wikipedia cleared that up. there was an actual protest movement in the early obama admin about this
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Feb 6, 2022 20:43
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Hedenius posted:I was going to ask where you live but I think a visit to Wikipedia cleared that up. Incandescents are in sort of an interesting space in the US. In the standard base, you need to have a nominal difference to produce them. They're called rough service bulbs, the filament is slightly bigger than the old standard, but you can buy them. Since the change, there are also a lot of fans and fixtures that use nonstandard bases explicitly to allow incandescent use. They're called candelabra bulbs and you can certainly buy incandescents. However, my guess is that this particular battle was lost about 10 years ago now. The incandescents are still cheaper but I guess 95+ percent of bulbs sold are led at this point.
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Feb 7, 2022 02:56
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i say swears online posted:there was an actual protest movement in the early obama admin about this to this day my q-pilled father uses incandescent lightbulbs and i think quite a few of my other family members do too but my contact with them is minimal
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Feb 7, 2022 03:13
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https://twitter.com/SamBendett/status/1490452806427455493?cxt=HHwWisC9mci7k68pAAAA Lol even the cartels are getting in on the drone game.
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Feb 7, 2022 20:34
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