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Epitope
Nov 27, 2006

Grimey Drawer

GhostofJohnMuir posted:

a bad year, especially early on in retirement, can have a very negative effect on the long-term success of a retirement portfolio. see the monte carlo simulations comparing a $1,000,000 initial portfolio, with a 4% withdrawal, over 30 years.

100% equity (success rate 90%)
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com...lAmount=1000000

100% equity, worst 2 years first (success rate 61%)
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com...lAmount=1000000

60/40 (success rate 98%)
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com...lAmount=1000000

60/40, worst 2 years first (success rate 93%)
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com...lAmount=1000000

Thanks I think this helps me frame my question better. If you change to 60/40 stocks cash, success rate goes down. Of course this all depends on the definition of success, but matching financial product to goal is key. I think this will help me see how bonds fit in the strategies.

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obi_ant
Apr 8, 2005

I'm currently in the middle of doing my taxes and stupidly, did not set any money aside for the money I owe. I received a 1099-DIV and my overall taxes is much larger than what I'm used to. What do I need to do in the future, to prepare for something like this, aside from just randomly saving money to pay my taxes.

spwrozek
Sep 4, 2006

Sail when it's windy

obi_ant posted:

I'm currently in the middle of doing my taxes and stupidly, did not set any money aside for the money I owe. I received a 1099-DIV and my overall taxes is much larger than what I'm used to. What do I need to do in the future, to prepare for something like this, aside from just randomly saving money to pay my taxes.

I put single and zero withholdings (not sure what that equals on the newer W4) and that covers my other earnings unless I sell a bunch of stock at a gain for some reason. I usually end up at around $1000 refund which is close enough for me.

YanniRotten
Apr 3, 2010

We're so pretty,
oh so pretty
If you received a 1099-DIV you received money, so some of that money probably should have been saved to cover taxes.

If it was a dividend that got reinvested into a taxable account you presumably have some shares that you might be able to sell? Unless things tanked hard for you you're still better receiving the dividend and paying taxes on it than not.

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22
lots of people have auto dividend reinvestment

Jows
May 8, 2002

Who has a tech-heavy-portfolio-and-had-been-wondering-when-to-stop-gambling-and-just-change-the-tech-fund-to-a-TDF-like-the-rest-of-his-holdings-for-like-an-entire-year-but-kept-riding-it-because-dumb and has two thumbs?
:negative:

Jows fucked around with this message at 15:58 on Feb 4, 2022

Covok
May 27, 2013

Yet where is that woman now? Tell me, in what heave does she reside? None of them. Because no God bothered to listen or care. If that is what you think it means to be a God, then you and all your teachings are welcome to do as that poor women did. And vanish from these realms forever.

Oh...oh dear God

jjack229
Feb 14, 2008
Articulate your needs. I'm here to listen.

If 80% of their portfolio is going to do "great", why do they need help with the other 20%? They could light it on fire and still come out good.

If they are going to put 80% into a single stock, why even try to pretend that they believe in diversification to reduce risk, just go 100%.

Covok
May 27, 2013

Yet where is that woman now? Tell me, in what heave does she reside? None of them. Because no God bothered to listen or care. If that is what you think it means to be a God, then you and all your teachings are welcome to do as that poor women did. And vanish from these realms forever.
These people have put their life completely into the hands of Elon Musk.

I cannot think of a worse idea.

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


My girlfriend used to work at Citibank and had a 401k with them. When she left, they automatically moved the money out of her 401k into a Citi managed rollover IRA (traditional). It's in a 0.2% money market account. She has a 401k with her current employer and a Roth IRA through Vanguard. Obviously we don't want to leave it in the money market fund but we also don't want to do anything that would be a taxable event. What do we do?

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22
If it's in a trad IRA dump it in to her 401(k) plan assuming a) it's a traditional 401(k) and not a Roth 401(k), and b) the 401(k) plan allows you to roll in IRAs.

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:

If it's in a trad IRA dump it in to her 401(k) plan assuming a) it's a traditional 401(k) and not a Roth 401(k), and b) the 401(k) plan allows you to roll in IRAs.

I'm 99.9% sure it's a traditional 401(k). I'll have her check with her HR if they allow rolling in IRAs.

Magicaljesus
Oct 18, 2006

Have you ever done this trick before?

jjack229 posted:

If 80% of their portfolio is going to do "great", why do they need help with the other 20%? They could light it on fire and still come out good.

If they are going to put 80% into a single stock, why even try to pretend that they believe in diversification to reduce risk, just go 100%.

I highly doubt the Twitter guy is being completely honest, but I suppose it's possible. If the latter, I'd guess that they invested a bit of cash in TSLA a few years back and much of their $1MM portfolio is simply from Tesla's huge stock price increase in recent years. Good news, though. If your stock is trending NE, it always will.

SpartanIvy
May 18, 2007
Hair Elf

Tell them to put the other 20% into Tesla, obviously

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22
My suggestion will not incur any taxes. If for whatever reason you can't do that, at minimum you can change what she's invested in within the Trad IRA to something more aligned with long term goals like a TDF or total market / SPY fund.

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:

My suggestion will not incur any taxes. If for whatever reason you can't do that, at minimum you can change what she's invested in within the Trad IRA to something more aligned with long term goals like a TDF or total market / SPY fund.

If we need to keep it in an IRA, can we move the IRA over to Vanguard? She invests into a Roth there, but doesn't make enough that she has to backdoor (yet). I guess it would probably be a problem if she ever needed to start backdooring though.

MrLogan
Feb 4, 2004

Long Term Investing & Retirement: Talking to your Girlfriend about Backdooring

Residency Evil
Jul 28, 2003

4/5 godo... Schumi
Long Term Investing & Retirement: Backdooring gets harder when you're married.

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


Residency Evil posted:

Long Term Investing & Retirement: Backdooring gets harder when you get married.

It gets easier because then we both have to do it instead of just me :v:

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?



Welp, at least I'm seeing something else outside of the endless "Just buy real estate!" advertisements or gold.

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

KillHour posted:

If we need to keep it in an IRA, can we move the IRA over to Vanguard? She invests into a Roth there, but doesn't make enough that she has to backdoor (yet). I guess it would probably be a problem if she ever needed to start backdooring though.

The existence of any trad IRA balance will interfere with your ability to backdoor, I think.

You can definitely move it over to Vanguard. If you are willing to pay some taxes, you could convert the whole balance to Roth and roll it in to her IRA, but you said you didn't want to pay any taxes so I didn't suggest that (and anyway, rolling in to the 401(k) if possible is better)

ROJO
Jan 14, 2006

Oven Wrangler

MrLogan posted:

Long Term Investing & Retirement: Talking to your Girlfriend about Backdooring

:discourse:

YanniRotten
Apr 3, 2010

We're so pretty,
oh so pretty
I backdoored my wife this year since she is interested in having her own retirement account but she seemed very bored by what I was doing.

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


YanniRotten posted:

I backdoored my wife this year since she is interested in having her own retirement account but she seemed very bored by what I was doing.

Maybe she would be more interested if it was a larger transaction?

YanniRotten
Apr 3, 2010

We're so pretty,
oh so pretty

KillHour posted:

Maybe she would be more interested if it was a larger transaction?

And exceed the contribution limit? If that's what she wants she'll have to get it somewhere else!

Sardonik
Jul 1, 2005

if you like my dumb posts, you'll love my dumb youtube channel
Ok, so I'm 80% sure this falls within the purview of this thread, but my apologies to those who feel it falls into the 20.

Upon the death of both of my girlfriend's paternal grandparents a few years ago she began receiving distributions from what I believe is their estate trust. She receives 3K monthly, her mom receives 1K (her dad died 20+ years ago). My understanding is that the assets of the trust include 6 properties in the Austin area.

Having some accounting education, there's some elements of this trust that make me extremely suspicious.

For one thing the trust was set up and I believe is executed by a friend of the grandparents in their 70s who is a CPA. He has been doing the family's taxes, including the taxes for the estate for free since the father passed. This seems like a rather large opportunity for fraud, though I can't speak to the other two elements of the fraud triangle as I don't know the guy personally. The trust is set up to be liquidated to her upon her turning 40, which seems insanely late too.

The other thing is that relative to the assets in the trust the payout amounts seems extremely low. Given the bonkers increase of rents in the Austin area, I can't help but wonder where the rest of that money is going (other than property tax). At best I would assume it's being put back into the trust and invested, but neither her nor I have any visibility on that currently.

So all that said, what I'm concerned about is that the executor of her trust may be embezzling the trust. While I suppose he has been doing the taxes for free much longer than the trust has existed I can't help but wonder. Is there like some kind of statement of cash flows of the trust that we can request from them? Could we trust the statement they produce? Is this something we need to hire a professional to look into?

For all I know this is legitimately an old family friend CPA helping out the family, am I wrong to see red flags all over this? She confirmed the details of this post, and knows I'm making it.

Residency Evil
Jul 28, 2003

4/5 godo... Schumi

Residency Evil posted:

Long Term Investing & Retirement: Backdooring gets harder when you're married.

I'm honored.

SlapActionJackson
Jul 27, 2006

As a beneficiary of the trust, your girlfriend should be receiving a K1 annually and a regular accounting of the trust assets and income.

Those documents will go a long way to answering what is going on with the money.

Subvisual Haze
Nov 22, 2003

The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

obi_ant posted:

I'm currently in the middle of doing my taxes and stupidly, did not set any money aside for the money I owe. I received a 1099-DIV and my overall taxes is much larger than what I'm used to. What do I need to do in the future, to prepare for something like this, aside from just randomly saving money to pay my taxes.

Try to keep your higher dividend stocks inside a tax protected retirement account if possible. Beyond that not a lot you can do, dividends are generally treated as normal taxable income. If they're qualified dividends, that income may be at a lower tax rate, but you'll still be paying taxes on them.

The way the tax code treats dividends versus capital gains is silly. It goes a long way to explaining why so many corporations now prefer buying back their own stock instead of paying out dividends, buying back shares will increase the price of the stock but won't trigger taxes until the shareholders choose to sell.

Loucks
May 21, 2007

It's incwedibwe easy to suck my own dick.

Anyone run into transaction delays with Vanguard recently? I placed a buy order for VTSAX & VTIAX Sunday ~noon, and both orders are still pending. It's concerning that they didn't post at the end of the day the way they usually do.

80k
Jul 3, 2004

careful!

Loucks posted:

Anyone run into transaction delays with Vanguard recently? I placed a buy order for VTSAX & VTIAX Sunday ~noon, and both orders are still pending. It's concerning that they didn't post at the end of the day the way they usually do.

It will go through at today’s closing price and you’ll see the completed transaction around midnight PST tonight very likely.

Duckman2008
Jan 6, 2010

TFW you see Flyers goaltending.
Grimey Drawer

Loucks posted:

Anyone run into transaction delays with Vanguard recently? I placed a buy order for VTSAX & VTIAX Sunday ~noon, and both orders are still pending. It's concerning that they didn't post at the end of the day the way they usually do.

I just did a purchase last week and this week, both times it showed it pending immediately, and goes through overnight where I see it the next today. Tbh I don’t remember them ever showing at the end of the day, although I honestly also don’t check because I assumed it wouldn’t show until next day.

Loucks
May 21, 2007

It's incwedibwe easy to suck my own dick.

Thanks, it did go through overnight. I could be crazy, but when I did my backdoors early last month the trades went through much sooner. I could also be completely wrong I guess.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

In this case it's a matter of many thousands (hundreds of thousands?) of mutual fund buy and sell transactions all happening in the same couple of hours after market closes, and Vanguard being slow to update your account to show it. I think it would be good if they updated your account with some kind of status "pending" or "processing" or something in the interim, though, it's kinda lovely to leave you in the dark.

Valicious
Aug 16, 2010
I’m hearing a lot about the change to the 1099-K decreasing the reporting limit from $20,000 to $600 for selling personal items. Has that gone into effect yet? Are friends and family payments on PayPal included in that? (Housemates and I use PayPal to share costs)

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


Valicious posted:

I’m hearing a lot about the change to the 1099-K decreasing the reporting limit from $20,000 to $600 for selling personal items. Has that gone into effect yet? Are friends and family payments on PayPal included in that? (Housemates and I use PayPal to share costs)

PayPal only includes it if the person sending you money checks "this is for goods or services"

tumblr hype man
Jul 29, 2008

nice meltdown
Slippery Tilde

KillHour posted:

PayPal only includes it if the person sending you money checks "this is for goods or services"

Same with Venmo.

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


If you're checking the "tax me" box, you're really bad at tax evasion.

Cheese Thief
Oct 30, 2020
About to drop a chunky five figures in the retirement fund. Not sure what to do. Just choose indexes that relate to stock, market, and overseas funds? I work really hard for this so I hate being so uninformed about where I put it.

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CubicalSucrose
Jan 1, 2013

Phantom my Opera and call me South Park: Bigger, Longer, & Uncut

Cheese Thief posted:

About to drop a chunky five figures in the retirement fund. Not sure what to do. Just choose indexes that relate to stock, market, and overseas funds? I work really hard for this so I hate being so uninformed about where I put it.

You say 5 figures - is this two IRAs? Also read the OP.

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