Eastern Europe: Olivier's sphere of influence

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Eastern Europe: Olivier's sphere of influence

Tuna-Fish: Sep 13, 2017

Charliegrs posted:

Does anyone know when the Russian drills in Belarus are scheduled to end? I think I read somewhere its supposed to end on the 20th but I'm not sure.

The olympics also end on the 20th, and based on "Putin totally would not ruin Xi's olympics", the earliest date for an invasion is the 21st.

# ? Feb 11, 2022 09:01

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 14, 2024 06:26

Alchenar: Apr 9, 2008

Zudgemud posted:

Personally I interpret that as compared to the EU the Russian economy is built up more on rents/income streams not based on productivity increases (for example oil and gas instead of efficient industry) and that it also has more powerful patronage networks that grants monopolies. So the EU economy reaps the benefits of capitalism as the rich get rich get richer while the Russian economy does not because competition by productivity works less well due to the strong patronage networks/corruption.

Yeah to provide some quick numbers for context: Russia spends about 1% of it's GDP on R&D (the average is about 2%). Of that 1%, around 2/3 is on military/defence and the remaining 1/3 is mostly in oil and gas exploitation. The rest of the economy is a series of pretty static state-backed monopolies that the oligarchs extract rents from, and then a reasonable number of SMEs that can do quite well as long as they are sure never to try and grow enough that they threaten some oligarch's rents.

# ? Feb 11, 2022 09:33

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Russia suddenly abandoned the blockage of the Sea of Azov.

Any links?

# ? Feb 11, 2022 09:59

Qtotonibudinibudet: Nov 7, 2011; Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Any links?

https://twitter.com/golub/status/1491886334746804235

https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1491901329044045825

# ? Feb 11, 2022 10:16

Alchenar: Apr 9, 2008

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Any links?

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1491910376375656452

Just cancelling the one they don't really need.

# ? Feb 11, 2022 10:16

Budzilla: Oct 14, 2007; We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

https://twitter.com/samagreene/status/1491847068587073538?s=20&t=V1OtAOw0ogYzmRQ5b3mtsw

What does this mean?

I am reading through the twitter thread and his papers that were linked. He is a summation of Russia's position in his 2016 paper. Click the link and read pages 9 through 14. It is too hellish to copy and paste from a PDF document. Basically his thesis is that the lack of Russian domestic reform (economic or otherwise) is making Putin choose specific aggressive foreign policy positions to maintain the status quo at home. None of these positions have long term benefits for Russia either.

# ? Feb 11, 2022 10:29

Conspiratiorist: Nov 12, 2015; 17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the ~~fifth~~ ~~sixth~~ some day

Alchenar posted:

Just cancelling the one they don't really need.

It's this. The upper left NOTAM is the one where you'd open hostilities in, to knock out the battalion operating in Odessa.

# ? Feb 11, 2022 10:30

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

CMYK BLYAT! posted:

https://twitter.com/golub/status/1491886334746804235

https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1491901329044045825

Alchenar posted:

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1491910376375656452

Just cancelling the one they don't really need.

Cheers! Some weird zones in Kokcharov�s map.

cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 10:33 on Feb 11, 2022

# ? Feb 11, 2022 10:31

CommieGIR: Aug 22, 2006; The blue glow is a feature, not a bug; Pillbug

So they are still blockading just....in new ways.

# ? Feb 11, 2022 15:42

Alchenar: Apr 9, 2008

That toxx is looking pretty spicy right now.

# ? Feb 11, 2022 17:10

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

fatherboxx posted:

It shouldn't be surprising that people in Eastern Europe thread (a lot of whom actually live here) have a different opinion on beloved western leftist figures especially when those figures cheer for glorious anti-imperialistic occupation.

Could you provide evidence for the claim that he cheers for "glorious anti-imperialistic occupation"? Because I'm pretty sure he's just pro-diplomacy (and anti-war) to a fault, willing to talk to literally anyone if it might mean the possibility of an equitable agreement.

# ? Feb 11, 2022 17:27

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

A Buttery Pastry posted:

Could you provide evidence for the claim that he cheers for "glorious anti-imperialistic occupation"? Because I'm pretty sure he's just pro-diplomacy (and anti-war) to a fault, willing to talk to literally anyone if it might mean the possibility of an equitable agreement.

It's wild seeing the British media's distortions on Corbyn being reflected in this thread. Appealing for calm and trying to prevent a war between nuclear powers is not pro-imperialism, holy moly.

# ? Feb 11, 2022 17:46

OddObserver: Apr 3, 2009

A Buttery Pastry posted:

Could you provide evidence for the claim that he cheers for "glorious anti-imperialistic occupation"? Because I'm pretty sure he's just pro-diplomacy (and anti-war) to a fault, willing to talk to literally anyone if it might mean the possibility of an equitable agreement.

Look up the latest posters from so-called "Stop the war" nonsense his name is on.

# ? Feb 11, 2022 18:03

Al-Saqr: Nov 11, 2007; One Day I Will Return To Your Side.

it looks like people are evacuating their embassies, looks like the panic is setting in and the invasion might actually happen:-

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1492183276273995781?s=20&t=0S0MuOQe1uFqsla6g3Pmkg

# ? Feb 11, 2022 18:29

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

OddObserver posted:

Look up the latest posters from so-called "Stop the war" nonsense his name is on.

I feel like calling "Stop the war" nonsense kind of gives the game away.

# ? Feb 11, 2022 18:41

Gumball Gumption: Jan 7, 2012

OddObserver posted:

Look up the latest posters from so-called "Stop the war" nonsense his name is on.

Oh wow Keir Starmer posts here.

# ? Feb 11, 2022 18:44

CommieGIR: Aug 22, 2006; The blue glow is a feature, not a bug; Pillbug

https://twitter.com/BulletinAtomic/status/1492192095330779143?s=20&t=UugeFhCXX7sSel5xpG880Q

Lmao, Putin going full Clancy. Bigger question: Where is he getting the idea that Ukraine want to take Crimea by force?

# ? Feb 11, 2022 18:44

Morrow: Oct 31, 2010

The UK media is going to clamp down on anything that diverges from mainstream political thought, like Corbyn. His position on this issue, like many others, is reasonable if you're not a shrieking ghoul only fed with the blood of children and the poor like most British journalists are.

# ? Feb 11, 2022 18:46

OddObserver: Apr 3, 2009

A Buttery Pastry posted:

I feel like calling "Stop the war" nonsense kind of gives the game away.

Why, yes, I do not consider Ukrainians and Syrians lesser people to be piled over "because West bad".
And "nonsense" is a bit on an understatement, too. More accurately, they are racist scum, red on the outside, brown on the inside.

And funny how everything is about "UK media". My opinions are based on the drivel these ilk spew about the people I grew up with, not inside Labour party ~~baseball~~cricket.
That's ultimately what it always comes down too --- everything is about US/UK to them, and everyone else is irrelevant.

Gumball Gumption posted:

Oh wow Keir Starmer posts here.

Didn't know Starmer was Ukrainian-American.

# ? Feb 11, 2022 18:51

WAR CRIME GIGOLO: Oct 3, 2012; The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

CommieGIR posted:

https://twitter.com/BulletinAtomic/status/1492192095330779143?s=20&t=UugeFhCXX7sSel5xpG880Q

Lmao, Putin going full Clancy. Bigger question: Where is he getting the idea that Ukraine want to take Crimea by force?

I think retaking luhansk and Donetsk has been discussed lightly. But now Russia's taken the reigns and is like Ukraine want stop attack all of Russia!

# ? Feb 11, 2022 18:53

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

OddObserver posted:

Why, yes, I do not consider Ukrainians and Syrians lesser people to be piled over "because West bad".
And "nonsense" is a bit on an understatement, too. More accurately, they are racist scum, red on the outside, brown on the inside.

The primary focus of the organization, and what triggered its founding, was the "War on Terror". It's loving insane calling them racist scum when their primary focus has been not starting wars in the Middle East, basically all of which have been humanitarian disasters. First one killed at least 50k civilians and restarted the heroin trade, another boosted the slave trade, and the big one caused possibly a million excess deaths. Not wanting to repeat that in Syria is not being racist against Syrians. Corbyn himself was protesting against the Apartheid regime when other (future) politicians were calling for the execution of Mandela.

You can critique his/their position on Ukraine, but the poo poo you're doing is just flinging poo poo.

# ? Feb 11, 2022 19:12

Al-Saqr: Nov 11, 2007; One Day I Will Return To Your Side.

Good luck to the Ukranians, they're gonna need it,

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1492205328838111240?s=20&t=SBV-Wcy69P7BO04F5WMbcg

https://twitter.com/nickschifrin/status/1492203844155150339?s=20&t=SBV-Wcy69P7BO04F5WMbcg

a full panic has set in, and the invasion is pretty much gonna happen.

# ? Feb 11, 2022 19:46

CommieGIR: Aug 22, 2006; The blue glow is a feature, not a bug; Pillbug

Israel, Norway and others as well. Somethings been shared out.

# ? Feb 11, 2022 19:46

Gros Tarla: Dec 30, 2008

I was about to come in and ask about it. Saw even asian countries exiting. Did anything change in the past few hours?

# ? Feb 11, 2022 19:54

mobby_6kl: Aug 9, 2009; by Fluffdaddy

I've got a fight to Kiev on the 20th lol. Let's see if anything happens until then.

# ? Feb 11, 2022 19:55

CommieGIR: Aug 22, 2006; The blue glow is a feature, not a bug; Pillbug

Gros Tarla posted:

I was about to come in and ask about it. Saw even asian countries exiting. Did anything change in the past few hours?

Per US news, Putin has communicated plans for attack to commanders in the field.

# ? Feb 11, 2022 19:56

Al-Saqr: Nov 11, 2007; One Day I Will Return To Your Side.

Gros Tarla posted:

I was about to come in and ask about it. Saw even asian countries exiting. Did anything change in the past few hours?

The intelligence agencies probably went from 'we guess he'll invade at some point' to ' Oh poo poo he's actually going to invade soon get out get out' that and according to the white house Putin gave the go ahead to his field commanders to start the invasion.

# ? Feb 11, 2022 19:56

Discendo Vox: Mar 21, 2013; We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

mobby_6kl posted:

I've got a fight to Kiev on the 20th lol. Let's see if anything happens until then.

Just as long as it's not Malaysia Air.

# ? Feb 11, 2022 19:57

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

mobby_6kl posted:

I've got a fight to Kiev on the 20th lol. Let's see if anything happens until then.

lol that's the date ppl think is most likely since its peak freeze and after Xi's Olympics.

# ? Feb 11, 2022 20:03

Minenfeld!: Aug 21, 2012

mobby_6kl posted:

I've got a fight to Kiev on the 20th lol. Let's see if anything happens until then.

Wait so you're invading?

# ? Feb 11, 2022 20:05

Gros Tarla: Dec 30, 2008

CommieGIR posted:

Per US news, Putin has communicated plans for attack to commanders in the field.

Well that's terrifying - and I'm on the other side of the world.

Stay safe EE goons, still crossing my fingers this is all bullshit somehow, even though it's starting to sound unlikely.

# ? Feb 11, 2022 20:05

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

All US citizens are now being asked to leave Ukraine within 48 hours

# ? Feb 11, 2022 20:07

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

E: Glitch in phone app. Double post:

# ? Feb 11, 2022 20:07

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Ah, the good old WORI (Westerns Out, Russians In) storage plan

# ? Feb 11, 2022 20:09

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

Alchenar posted:

Yeah to provide some quick numbers for context: Russia spends about 1% of it's GDP on R&D (the average is about 2%). Of that 1%, around 2/3 is on military/defence and the remaining 1/3 is mostly in oil and gas exploitation. The rest of the economy is a series of pretty static state-backed monopolies that the oligarchs extract rents from, and then a reasonable number of SMEs that can do quite well as long as they are sure never to try and grow enough that they threaten some oligarch's rents.

That was my thought as well, open competition threatens oligarchs and they don't want to change. Or innovate because even that would risk their wealth, power, control, etc.

# ? Feb 11, 2022 20:11

CommieGIR: Aug 22, 2006; The blue glow is a feature, not a bug; Pillbug

Nenonen posted:

Ah, the good old WORI (Westerns Out, Russians In) storage plan

Gotta make space, obviously.

# ? Feb 11, 2022 20:12

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

Also,

I'm a bit surprised Putin's doing this during the Olympics but it's not like he hasn't done it before.

# ? Feb 11, 2022 20:12

Al-Saqr: Nov 11, 2007; One Day I Will Return To Your Side.

I gotta say at first I was snarkily dismissing the prospect of a russian invasion but now it's really likely it's gonna happen wow.

Man good luck to any Ukranian goons here, drat.

# ? Feb 11, 2022 20:12

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

They're hosed.

And personally, I don't think there's going to be a long lasting insurgency either. If you think the Western Nations doesn't abide by rules or war, fight fair, etc. wait until you see what Putin will to Kiev.

# ? Feb 11, 2022 20:14

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 14, 2024 06:26

Alchenar: Apr 9, 2008

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

Also,

I'm a bit surprised Putin's doing this during the Olympics but it's not like he hasn't done it before.

I've always thought that was weird. The movements of hundreds of thousands of troops are not going to hinge on if there is sports on the TV and never was, it was such a weird grasp by the political commentators.

# ? Feb 11, 2022 20:15

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Eastern Europe: Olivier's sphere of influence

«‹›463 »